Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2017-10-22T12:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 221200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TY 1721 LAN (1721)

PSTN 221200UTC 32.1N 136.2E

PRES 945HPA

MXWD 85KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 34.7N 138.1E +022HPA -015KT

T=012 38.2N 140.9E +035HPA -029KT

T=018 40.3N 143.7E +035HPA -023KT

T=024 41.8N 147.8E +039HPA -027KT

T=030 44.4N 153.6E +038HPA -029KT

T=036 51.5N 164.6E +031HPA -040KT

T=042 53.1N 168.5E +017HPA -032KT

T=048 53.8N 169.8E +010HPA -026KT

T=054 53.6N 171.6E +009HPA -026KT

T=060 53.3N 175.4E +012HPA -024KT

T=066 52.8N 179.4E +017HPA -029KT

T=072 52.5N 176.3W +023HPA -035KT

T=078 53.3N 173.0W +029HPA -042KT

T=084 54.2N 170.9W +034HPA -046KT

T=090 54.9N 169.1W +038HPA -047KT

T=096 55.9N 167.5W +041HPA -049KT

T=102 56.9N 166.3W +043HPA -051KT

T=108 58.2N 165.7W +044HPA -049KT

T=114 59.3N 166.1W +045HPA -051KT

T=120 60.0N 166.1W +045HPA -051KT

T=126 60.3N 165.7W +046HPA -053KT

T=132 60.4N 165.0W +048HPA -052KT=

Tropical Cyclone Warning for GMDSS Metarea XI 2017-10-22T15:00:00Z

WTJP92 RJTD 221500

EGC:2:2:31:11:01:00

PAN PAN

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING / ISSUED FOR THE NORTH OF EQUATOR OF METAREA

XI(POR).

WARNING 221500.

WARNING VALID 231500.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 950 HPA

AT 33.4N 137.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 29 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 700 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 38.7N 142.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 43.1N 151.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2017-10-22T15:00:00Z

WTPQ21 RJTD 221500

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 1721 LAN (1721)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 221500UTC 33.4N 137.4E GOOD

MOVE NNE 29KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 075KT

GUST 105KT

50KT 150NM

30KT 700NM WEST 400NM EAST

FORECAST

24HF 231500UTC 43.1N 151.0E 80NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2017-10-22T15:00:00Z

WTJP32 RJTD 221500

WARNING 221500.

WARNING VALID 231500.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1721 LAN (1721) 950 HPA

AT 33.4N 137.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 29 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 700 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 38.7N 142.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 43.1N 151.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2017-10-22T12:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 221200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TY 1721 LAN (1721)

PSTN 221200UTC 32.1N 136.2E

PRES 945HPA

MXWD 85KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 34.8N 138.2E +019HPA -022KT

T=12 38.1N 141.0E +037HPA -039KT

T=18 40.4N 144.3E +040HPA -032KT

T=24 42.2N 148.4E +043HPA -037KT

T=30 44.8N 154.5E +044HPA -040KT

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