Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-07-01T12:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 011200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509)

PSTN 011200UTC 11.4N 155.4E

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 45KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 11.8N 153.8E -002HPA +001KT

T=012 12.1N 151.6E -002HPA +005KT

T=018 11.8N 149.6E -006HPA +005KT

T=024 11.2N 148.5E -003HPA +001KT

T=030 11.2N 148.4E -005HPA +002KT

T=036 11.6N 148.1E -004HPA 000KT

T=042 12.0N 147.8E -007HPA -002KT

T=048 12.4N 147.5E -005HPA -002KT

T=054 12.8N 147.0E -008HPA 000KT

T=060 13.3N 146.6E -008HPA +002KT

T=066 14.1N 146.3E -010HPA +002KT

T=072 14.8N 145.8E -008HPA +003KT

T=078 15.5N 145.3E -011HPA +006KT

T=084 16.4N 144.6E -011HPA +008KT

T=090 17.4N 143.9E -013HPA +007KT

T=096 18.2N 143.0E -012HPA +009KT

T=102 19.1N 141.9E -016HPA +009KT

T=108 20.0N 140.9E -015HPA +011KT

T=114 20.9N 139.9E -018HPA +011KT

T=120 21.6N 138.9E -018HPA +012KT

T=126 22.4N 137.9E -021HPA +012KT

T=132 23.1N 137.0E -022HPA +013KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-07-01T15:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 011500

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 011500UTC 11.5N 154.6E FAIR

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 045KT

GUST 065KT

30KT 150NM

FORECAST

24HF 021500UTC 11.5N 148.9E 75NM 70%

MOVE W 13KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

45HF 031200UTC 11.6N 146.6E 110NM 70%

MOVE W 07KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

GUST 085KT

69HF 041200UTC 13.6N 144.6E 160NM 70%

MOVE NW 07KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

GUST 100KT =

Tropical Cyclone Warning for GMDSS Metarea XI 2015-07-01T15:00:00Z

WTJP91 RJTD 011500

EGC:2:1:31:11:01:00

SECURITE

THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH OF EQUATOR OF

METAREA XI(POR).

WARNING 011500.

WARNING VALID 021500.

STORM WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 990 HPA

AT 11.5N 154.6E TRUKS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 11.9N 151.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 11.5N 148.9E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2015-07-01T15:00:00Z

WTJP31 RJTD 011500

WARNING 011500.

WARNING VALID 021500.

STORM WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509) 990 HPA

AT 11.5N 154.6E TRUKS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 11.9N 151.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 11.5N 148.9E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-07-01T12:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 011200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509)

PSTN 011200UTC 11.4N 155.4E

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 45KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 11.7N 153.9E -006HPA +008KT

T=12 12.2N 151.3E -012HPA +018KT

T=18 11.8N 149.4E -011HPA +012KT

T=24 11.4N 148.4E -010HPA +010KT

T=30 11.4N 147.9E -009HPA +007KT

T=36 11.5N 147.7E -010HPA +008KT

T=42 12.1N 147.5E -012HPA +006KT

T=48 12.5N 147.2E -010HPA +002KT

T=54 12.8N 146.8E -014HPA +011KT

T=60 13.3N 146.5E -013HPA +008KT

T=66 14.0N 146.2E -017HPA +011KT

T=72 14.8N 145.9E -018HPA +018KT

T=78 15.6N 145.1E -024HPA +023KT

T=84 16.2N 144.4E -023HPA +022KT=