Marine Weather Warning for GMDSS Metarea XI 2016-09-29T08:20:00Z

WWJP92 RJTD 290820

EGC:2:1:31:11:01:00

THIS FORECAST IS PROVIDED BY WEATHER MELBOURNE AND

ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH OF EQUATOR OF NAVAREA XI(POR) BY JMA.

IDY10240

SECURITE

High Seas Forecast for Metarea 8/10/11

NORTHERN AREA: EQUATOR TO 12S, 90E TO 142E AND SOUTHWARD TO COAST, 125E TO 142E

Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, BNOC

For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 29 September 2016

PLEASE BE AWARE

Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,

and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Part 1 Warnings

Nil.

Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC

Refer to latest warnings.

Trough EQ093E 08S104E 12S112E, slow moving.

Part 3 Forecast

Refer to latest warnings.

West of trough:

SE quarter winds 10/20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate swell.

Remainder:

Variable winds below 20 knots with slight to moderate seas. Low swell,

increasing to moderate south of a line EQ100E 06S105E 10S120E 12S120E.

Rain areas and isolated thunderstorms within 240nm of trough. Scattered showers

and isolated thunderstorms remainder north of 10S. Visibility reducing below

2nm in precipitation.

WEATHER MELBOURNE

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Five-day Track Forecast 2016-09-29T06:00:00Z

WTPQ51 RJTD 290600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1618 CHABA (1618)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 290600UTC 14.7N 142.6E FAIR

MOVE W 10KT

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 90NM

FORECAST

24HF 300600UTC 15.5N 138.4E 50NM 70%

MOVE W 10KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 050KT

GUST 070KT

48HF 010600UTC 17.9N 135.1E 95NM 70%

MOVE NW 10KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT

72HF 020600UTC 21.5N 131.6E 140NM 70%

MOVE NW 12KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 080KT

GUST 115KT

96HF 030600UTC 26.2N 130.0E 240NM 70%

MOVE NNW 12KT

120HF 040600UTC 31.2N 134.4E 325NM 70%

MOVE NE 16KT =

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2016-09-29T06:00:00Z

WTPQ31 RJTD 290600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1618 CHABA (1618)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

POSITION ACCURACY AT 290600 UTC IS FAIR.

TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHWEST.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.

FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Tropical Cyclone Warning for GMDSS Metarea XI 2016-09-29T06:00:00Z

WTJP82 RJTD 290600

EGC:2:1:31:11:01:00

SECURITE

THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH OF EQUATOR OF

METAREA XI(POR).

WARNING 290600.

WARNING VALID 300600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

STORM WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1618 CHABA (1618) 1000 HPA

AT 14.7N 142.6E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 15.1N 140.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 15.5N 138.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 17.9N 135.1E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 21.5N 131.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2016-09-29T06:00:00Z

WTJP22 RJTD 290600

WARNING 290600.

WARNING VALID 300600.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

STORM WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1618 CHABA (1618) 1000 HPA

AT 14.7N 142.6E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 15.1N 140.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 15.5N 138.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 17.9N 135.1E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 21.5N 131.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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