Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2014-10-02T00:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 020000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TY 1418 PHANFONE (1418)

PSTN 020000UTC 19.5N 139.0E

PRES 945HPA

MXWD 85KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 20.1N 138.0E -004HPA +001KT

T=012 20.9N 137.1E -005HPA +004KT

T=018 21.7N 136.2E -010HPA +006KT

T=024 22.4N 135.4E -010HPA +007KT

T=030 23.4N 134.8E -012HPA +005KT

T=036 24.2N 134.4E -010HPA +006KT

T=042 25.0N 134.1E -010HPA +004KT

T=048 25.8N 133.9E -007HPA +003KT

T=054 26.6N 133.7E -008HPA +004KT

T=060 27.3N 133.5E -003HPA +002KT

T=066 28.0N 133.2E -002HPA +001KT

T=072 28.6N 133.0E 000HPA +001KT

T=078 29.5N 133.3E 000HPA +005KT

T=084 30.3N 134.0E +004HPA +002KT

T=090 31.4N 135.1E +005HPA +002KT

T=096 32.8N 136.9E +009HPA +001KT

T=102 34.6N 139.5E +012HPA -003KT

T=108 36.7N 142.8E +016HPA -008KT

T=114 38.6N 146.7E +016HPA -009KT

T=120 40.1N 151.0E +018HPA -010KT

T=126 41.2N 155.4E +017HPA -013KT

T=132 42.0N 160.2E +017HPA -015KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-10-02T03:00:00Z

WTPQ21 RJTD 020300

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 1418 PHANFONE (1418)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 020300UTC 19.5N 138.3E GOOD

MOVE W 13KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 090KT

GUST 130KT

50KT 80NM

30KT 375NM NORTH 270NM SOUTH

FORECAST

24HF 030300UTC 22.4N 134.9E 75NM 70%

MOVE NW 11KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 095KT

GUST 135KT

45HF 040000UTC 24.9N 132.6E 110NM 70%

MOVE NW 10KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 095KT

GUST 135KT

69HF 050000UTC 27.8N 130.7E 160NM 70%

MOVE NNW 08KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 090KT

GUST 130KT =

Tropical Cyclone Warning for GMDSS Metarea XI 2014-10-02T03:00:00Z

WTJP92 RJTD 020300

EGC:2:2:24:20N138E999:11:00

PAN PAN

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING / ISSUED FOR CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA

XI(POR).

WARNING 020300.

WARNING VALID 030300.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1418 PHANFONE (1418) 940 HPA

AT 19.5N 138.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 20.9N 136.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 22.4N 134.9E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2014-10-02T03:00:00Z

WTJP32 RJTD 020300

WARNING 020300.

WARNING VALID 030300.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1418 PHANFONE (1418) 940 HPA

AT 19.5N 138.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 20.9N 136.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 22.4N 134.9E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2014-10-02T00:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 020000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TY 1418 PHANFONE (1418)

PSTN 020000UTC 19.5N 139.0E

PRES 945HPA

MXWD 85KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 20.1N 138.0E -007HPA -001KT

T=12 20.8N 137.0E -011HPA +003KT

T=18 21.6N 136.1E -019HPA +011KT

T=24 22.3N 135.2E -023HPA +016KT

T=30 23.2N 134.5E -028HPA +013KT

T=36 23.9N 133.9E -027HPA +016KT

T=42 24.6N 133.3E -028HPA +016KT

T=48 25.3N 132.9E -025HPA +016KT

T=54 26.0N 132.3E -028HPA +013KT

T=60 26.5N 131.7E -026HPA +014KT

T=66 27.2N 131.2E -025HPA +016KT

T=72 27.7N 130.8E -024HPA +016KT

T=78 28.6N 130.8E -025HPA +016KT

T=84 29.5N 131.2E -022HPA +016KT=