Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2016-11-02T06:00:00Z

WTPQ31 RJTD 020600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 16.5N 146.2E

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS FAIR.

TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.

FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=