Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2014-07-30T00:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 300000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1411 HALONG (1411)

PSTN 300000UTC 13.8N 145.8E

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 45KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 14.4N 144.8E -002HPA +001KT

T=012 14.5N 144.2E -001HPA +002KT

T=018 14.6N 143.2E -004HPA +001KT

T=024 14.7N 142.4E -003HPA +002KT

T=030 15.0N 141.9E -005HPA +003KT

T=036 15.3N 141.3E -003HPA +003KT

T=042 15.6N 140.7E -005HPA +003KT

T=048 15.9N 140.2E -004HPA +005KT

T=054 16.2N 139.7E -007HPA +006KT

T=060 16.5N 139.4E -006HPA +006KT

T=066 16.9N 139.0E -009HPA +008KT

T=072 17.2N 138.7E -009HPA +009KT

T=078 17.5N 138.4E -012HPA +009KT

T=084 17.7N 138.2E -011HPA +011KT

T=090 18.1N 137.9E -013HPA +011KT

T=096 18.5N 137.6E -013HPA +011KT

T=102 18.9N 137.4E -016HPA +011KT

T=108 19.4N 137.1E -015HPA +012KT

T=114 20.0N 136.9E -017HPA +013KT

T=120 20.7N 136.7E -015HPA +013KT

T=126 21.6N 136.5E -018HPA +013KT

T=132 22.4N 136.2E -016HPA +013KT=

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2014-07-30T00:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 300000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1412 NAKRI (1412)

PSTN 300000UTC 19.5N 129.5E

PRES 994HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 21.7N 129.9E -001HPA 000KT

T=012 23.0N 128.8E -001HPA +002KT

T=018 23.7N 127.6E -003HPA +001KT

T=024 24.0N 127.0E -002HPA +001KT

T=030 24.5N 126.9E -005HPA 000KT

T=036 25.1N 126.8E -006HPA +002KT

T=042 26.2N 126.4E -007HPA +003KT

T=048 27.5N 125.6E -007HPA +004KT

T=054 28.3N 124.9E -008HPA +003KT

T=060 29.0N 124.5E -007HPA +002KT

T=066 29.9N 124.2E -008HPA +002KT

T=072 31.0N 123.9E -007HPA +003KT

T=078 31.7N 123.2E -007HPA +002KT

T=084 32.1N 122.6E -006HPA +001KT

T=090 32.6N 122.0E -006HPA -002KT

T=096 32.9N 121.7E -004HPA -002KT

T=102 33.3N 121.5E -005HPA -004KT

T=108 33.5N 121.1E -003HPA -005KT

T=114 33.9N 120.9E -003HPA -005KT

T=120 34.0N 120.9E -001HPA -005KT

T=126 33.9N 121.0E -001HPA -007KT

T=132 33.8N 121.5E 000HPA -008KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-07-30T03:00:00Z

WTPQ21 RJTD 300300

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1411 HALONG (1411)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 300300UTC 14.2N 144.9E FAIR

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 045KT

GUST 065KT

30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 310300UTC 14.8N 142.0E 70NM 70%

MOVE W 07KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 060KT

GUST 085KT

45HF 010000UTC 15.2N 140.6E 110NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 075KT

GUST 105KT

69HF 020000UTC 16.7N 139.2E 160NM 70%

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 075KT

GUST 105KT =

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2014-07-30T03:00:00Z

WTJP32 RJTD 300300

WARNING 300300.

WARNING VALID 310300.

STORM WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1411 HALONG (1411) 992 HPA

AT 14.2N 144.9E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120

MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 310300UTC AT 14.8N 142.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-07-30T03:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 300300

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1412 NAKRI (1412)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 300300UTC 20.4N 129.5E POOR

MOVE N 08KT

PRES 994HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 310300UTC 23.7N 126.6E 70NM 70%

MOVE NW 10KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT

45HF 010000UTC 26.5N 125.0E 110NM 70%

MOVE NNW 10KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 045KT

GUST 065KT

69HF 020000UTC 30.7N 123.7E 210NM 70%

MOVE N 11KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 045KT

GUST 065KT =