Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Five-day Track Forecast 2014-10-31T18:00:00Z

WTPQ50 RJTD 311800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1420 NURI (1420)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 311800UTC 13.1N 134.4E FAIR

MOVE WNW 08KT

PRES 994HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT

30KT 90NM

FORECAST

24HF 011800UTC 15.3N 132.3E 85NM 70%

MOVE NW 07KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

48HF 021800UTC 17.4N 131.9E 160NM 70%

MOVE N SLOWLY

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT

72HF 031800UTC 19.5N 133.7E 220NM 70%

MOVE NE 07KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

GUST 100KT

96HF 041800UTC 20.9N 134.1E 280NM 70%

MOVE N SLOWLY

120HF 051800UTC 22.1N 133.8E 375NM 70%

MOVE N SLOWLY =

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-10-31T18:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 311800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1420 NURI (1420)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 311800UTC 13.1N 134.4E FAIR

MOVE WNW 08KT

PRES 994HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT

30KT 90NM

FORECAST

24HF 011800UTC 15.3N 132.3E 85NM 70%

MOVE NW 07KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

48HF 021800UTC 17.4N 131.9E 160NM 70%

MOVE N SLOWLY

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT

72HF 031800UTC 19.5N 133.7E 220NM 70%

MOVE NE 07KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

GUST 100KT =

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2014-10-31T18:00:00Z

WTJP21 RJTD 311800

WARNING 311800.

WARNING VALID 011800.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

STORM WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1420 NURI (1420) 994 HPA

AT 13.1N 134.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08

KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 15.3N 132.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 17.4N 131.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 19.5N 133.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2014-10-31T12:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 311200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1420 NURI (1420)

PSTN 311200UTC 12.9N 135.5E

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 13.0N 135.0E -003HPA +001KT

T=012 14.0N 134.7E -001HPA +004KT

T=018 14.7N 133.7E -004HPA +004KT

T=024 15.0N 133.1E -002HPA +003KT

T=030 15.5N 132.8E -005HPA +004KT

T=036 16.0N 132.5E -003HPA +005KT

T=042 16.7N 132.3E -006HPA +005KT

T=048 17.2N 132.3E -005HPA +007KT

T=054 17.7N 132.3E -008HPA +008KT

T=060 18.1N 132.6E -006HPA +010KT

T=066 18.6N 133.1E -010HPA +011KT

T=072 18.9N 133.7E -008HPA +013KT

T=078 19.3N 134.3E -011HPA +014KT

T=084 19.7N 134.9E -009HPA +016KT

T=090 20.2N 135.4E -012HPA +015KT

T=096 20.4N 135.7E -009HPA +016KT

T=102 20.7N 135.6E -010HPA +015KT

T=108 20.9N 135.1E -008HPA +017KT

T=114 21.1N 134.4E -009HPA +017KT

T=120 21.5N 133.6E -007HPA +017KT

T=126 21.9N 132.7E -008HPA +017KT

T=132 22.6N 131.9E -006HPA +017KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-10-31T15:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 311500

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1420 NURI (1420)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 311500UTC 12.9N 135.2E FAIR

MOVE WNW 07KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 90NM

FORECAST

24HF 011500UTC 14.9N 133.1E 85NM 70%

MOVE NW 07KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

GUST 070KT

45HF 021200UTC 16.9N 132.5E 160NM 70%

MOVE NNW SLOWLY

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

GUST 085KT

69HF 031200UTC 19.1N 134.0E 220NM 70%

MOVE NNE 07KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT =