Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2014-09-18T00:00:00Z

WTPQ31 RJTD 180000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 1416 FUNG-WONG (1416)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS POOR.

TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE.

TS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 72 HOURS FROM 180000 UTC.

TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Five-day Track Forecast 2014-09-18T00:00:00Z

WTPQ51 RJTD 180000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1416 FUNG-WONG (1416)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 180000UTC 13.0N 128.7E POOR

MOVE WNW 13KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 180NM

FORECAST

24HF 190000UTC 16.2N 123.8E 75NM 70%

MOVE NW 14KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 045KT

GUST 065KT

48HF 200000UTC 18.7N 121.7E 110NM 70%

MOVE NW 08KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

72HF 210000UTC 21.1N 124.4E 220NM 70%

MOVE NE 09KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT

96HF 220000UTC 25.0N 129.0E 425NM 70%

MOVE NE 14KT

120HF 230000UTC 29.3N 135.4E 500NM 70%

MOVE NE 18KT =

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-09-18T00:00:00Z

WTPQ21 RJTD 180000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1416 FUNG-WONG (1416)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 180000UTC 13.0N 128.7E POOR

MOVE WNW 13KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 180NM

FORECAST

24HF 190000UTC 16.2N 123.8E 75NM 70%

MOVE NW 14KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 045KT

GUST 065KT

48HF 200000UTC 18.7N 121.7E 110NM 70%

MOVE NW 08KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

72HF 210000UTC 21.1N 124.4E 220NM 70%

MOVE NE 09KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT =

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2014-09-18T00:00:00Z

WTJP22 RJTD 180000

WARNING 180000.

WARNING VALID 190000.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1416 FUNG-WONG (1416) 998 HPA

AT 13.0N 128.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13

KNOTS.

POSITION POOR.

MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 14.5N 126.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 16.2N 123.8E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 18.7N 121.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 21.1N 124.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2014-09-17T18:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 171800

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1416 FUNG-WONG (1416)

PSTN 171800UTC 12.3N 129.2E

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 13.9N 129.0E +001HPA +006KT

T=012 15.2N 128.2E -001HPA +007KT

T=018 16.5N 127.1E +001HPA +007KT

T=024 17.5N 125.7E -002HPA +006KT

T=030 18.4N 124.6E -001HPA +004KT

T=036 19.1N 123.7E -003HPA +005KT

T=042 19.5N 123.0E -002HPA +006KT

T=048 19.9N 122.6E -004HPA +007KT

T=054 20.2N 122.7E -003HPA +008KT

T=060 20.8N 123.5E -007HPA +011KT

T=066 21.7N 124.4E -006HPA +010KT

T=072 22.6N 125.5E -008HPA +011KT

T=078 23.8N 127.0E -007HPA +012KT

T=084 24.9N 128.6E -011HPA +014KT

T=090 26.1N 130.2E -010HPA +015KT

T=096 27.3N 131.7E -013HPA +015KT

T=102 28.6N 133.4E -012HPA +017KT

T=108 29.7N 135.1E -015HPA +019KT

T=114 30.6N 136.6E -013HPA +022KT

T=120 31.5N 137.9E -014HPA +022KT

T=126 32.2N 138.6E -013HPA +025KT

T=132 32.5N 139.4E -013HPA +022KT=