Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-08-01T12:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 011200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)

PSTN 011200UTC 14.2N 150.8E

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 40KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 14.3N 150.0E -004HPA +002KT

T=012 14.5N 148.8E -004HPA +002KT

T=018 14.9N 147.8E -007HPA +002KT

T=024 15.4N 146.6E -007HPA +004KT

T=030 15.7N 145.4E -011HPA +006KT

T=036 16.0N 144.2E -011HPA +007KT

T=042 16.3N 143.2E -015HPA +007KT

T=048 16.6N 142.3E -015HPA +009KT

T=054 16.9N 141.3E -020HPA +010KT

T=060 17.2N 140.5E -019HPA +011KT

T=066 17.6N 139.7E -023HPA +010KT

T=072 18.0N 139.0E -022HPA +012KT

T=078 18.4N 138.2E -025HPA +013KT

T=084 18.8N 137.5E -025HPA +013KT

T=090 19.2N 136.7E -027HPA +014KT

T=096 19.6N 135.9E -027HPA +017KT

T=102 19.9N 134.9E -029HPA +016KT

T=108 20.3N 133.9E -028HPA +019KT

T=114 20.8N 132.9E -031HPA +022KT

T=120 21.2N 131.9E -031HPA +022KT

T=126 21.7N 130.8E -033HPA +024KT

T=132 22.3N 129.8E -032HPA +024KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-08-01T15:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 011500

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 011500UTC 14.3N 150.2E FAIR

MOVE W 13KT

PRES 994HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT

30KT 150NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH

FORECAST

24HF 021500UTC 15.4N 145.5E 75NM 70%

MOVE W 12KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

45HF 031200UTC 16.8N 141.8E 140NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT

69HF 041200UTC 18.1N 137.8E 210NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 075KT

GUST 105KT =

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2015-08-01T15:00:00Z

WTJP31 RJTD 011500

WARNING 011500.

WARNING VALID 021500.

STORM WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1513 SOUDELOR (1513) 994 HPA

AT 14.3N 150.2E TRUKS MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 14.8N 147.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 15.4N 145.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-08-01T12:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 011200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)

PSTN 011200UTC 14.2N 150.8E

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 40KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 14.3N 149.9E -005HPA +004KT

T=12 14.5N 148.8E -006HPA +004KT

T=18 15.0N 147.7E -011HPA +008KT

T=24 15.3N 146.5E -012HPA +010KT

T=30 15.7N 145.2E -017HPA +014KT

T=36 15.9N 144.0E -018HPA +014KT

T=42 16.1N 142.8E -023HPA +015KT

T=48 16.2N 141.8E -024HPA +017KT

T=54 16.4N 141.0E -028HPA +016KT

T=60 16.7N 140.3E -028HPA +015KT

T=66 17.1N 139.8E -031HPA +017KT

T=72 17.7N 139.1E -032HPA +020KT

T=78 18.0N 138.2E -036HPA +020KT

T=84 18.2N 137.4E -037HPA +023KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Five-day Track Forecast 2015-08-01T12:00:00Z

WTPQ50 RJTD 011200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1513 SOUDELOR (1513)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 011200UTC 14.2N 150.8E FAIR

MOVE W 13KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT

30KT 150NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH

FORECAST

24HF 021200UTC 15.3N 146.3E 75NM 70%

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

48HF 031200UTC 16.8N 141.8E 140NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT

72HF 041200UTC 18.1N 137.8E 210NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 075KT

GUST 105KT

96HF 051200UTC 19.2N 134.6E 240NM 70%

MOVE WNW 08KT

120HF 061200UTC 20.8N 131.6E 300NM 70%

MOVE WNW 08KT =