Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2014-10-02T06:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 020600

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TY 1418 PHANFONE (1418)

PSTN 020600UTC 19.7N 138.2E

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 95KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 20.6N 137.7E +004HPA -003KT

T=012 21.5N 136.8E -001HPA -004KT

T=018 22.4N 136.0E -002HPA -001KT

T=024 23.4N 135.3E -004HPA -003KT

T=030 24.2N 134.7E -002HPA -002KT

T=036 25.1N 134.3E -003HPA -005KT

T=042 25.9N 134.0E 000HPA -003KT

T=048 26.8N 133.7E 000HPA -007KT

T=054 27.5N 133.4E +005HPA -006KT

T=060 28.2N 133.1E +007HPA -009KT

T=066 29.0N 133.1E +009HPA -008KT

T=072 29.8N 133.5E +009HPA -005KT

T=078 30.7N 134.4E +013HPA -005KT

T=084 32.0N 135.8E +015HPA -007KT

T=090 33.5N 138.0E +019HPA -008KT

T=096 35.6N 141.0E +022HPA -012KT

T=102 37.9N 144.8E +024HPA -016KT

T=108 39.7N 148.9E +024HPA -019KT

T=114 40.9N 153.4E +025HPA -021KT

T=120 41.7N 158.0E +025HPA -024KT

T=126 42.4N 163.2E +025HPA -026KT

T=132 43.2N 168.2E +022HPA -026KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-10-02T09:00:00Z

WTPQ21 RJTD 020900

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 1418 PHANFONE (1418)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 020900UTC 20.2N 137.5E GOOD

MOVE NW 10KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 095KT

GUST 135KT

50KT 90NM

30KT 375NM NORTH 270NM SOUTH

FORECAST

24HF 030900UTC 23.2N 134.4E 75NM 70%

MOVE NW 11KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 100KT

GUST 140KT

45HF 040600UTC 25.7N 132.6E 110NM 70%

MOVE NNW 09KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

GUST 140KT

69HF 050600UTC 28.4N 131.4E 160NM 70%

MOVE NNW 07KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 095KT

GUST 135KT =

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2014-10-02T09:00:00Z

WTJP32 RJTD 020900

WARNING 020900.

WARNING VALID 030900.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1418 PHANFONE (1418) 935 HPA

AT 20.2N 137.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 21.5N 135.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 23.2N 134.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-10-02T09:00:00Z

WTPQ21 RJTD 020900

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 1418 PHANFONE (1418)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 020900UTC 20.2N 137.5E GOOD

MOVE NW 10KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 095KT

GUST 135KT

50KT 90NM

30KT 375NM NORTH 270NM SOUTH

FORECAST

24HF 030900UTC 23.2N 134.4E 75NM 70%

MOVE NW 11KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 100KT

GUST 140KT

45HF 040600UTC 25.7N 132.6E 110NM 70%

MOVE NNW 09KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

GUST 140KT

69HF 050600UTC 28.4N 131.4E 160NM 70%

MOVE NNW 07KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 095KT

GUST 135KT =

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2014-10-02T09:00:00Z

WTJP32 RJTD 020900

WARNING 020900.

WARNING VALID 030900.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1418 PHANFONE (1418) 935 HPA

AT 20.2N 137.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 21.5N 135.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 23.2N 134.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=