Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-12-11T12:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 111200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1422 HAGUPIT (1422)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 111200UTC 13N 112E

MOVE WSW 10KT

PRES 1002HPA =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2014-12-11T06:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 110600

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1422 HAGUPIT (1422)

PSTN 110600UTC 13.4N 112.8E

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 13.2N 111.9E +004HPA +001KT

T=012 12.5N 110.9E +005HPA -001KT

T=018 11.8N 110.1E +009HPA -006KT

T=024 10.8N 107.9E +008HPA -013KT

T=030 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=036 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=042 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=048 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=054 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=060 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=066 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=072 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=078 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=084 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=090 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=096 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=102 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=108 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=114 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=120 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=126 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=132 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-12-11T09:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 110900

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1422 HAGUPIT (1422)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 110900UTC 13.3N 112.2E POOR

MOVE W 10KT

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 90NM

FORECAST

24HF 120900UTC 11.0N 108.1E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2014-12-11T06:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 110600

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1422 HAGUPIT (1422)

PSTN 110600UTC 13.4N 112.8E

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 13.2N 112.0E +003HPA +001KT

T=12 12.5N 110.8E +002HPA +003KT

T=18 11.6N 110.1E +006HPA -001KT

T=24 10.9N 109.4E +007HPA -012KT

T=30 09.9N 106.0E +011HPA -016KT

T=36 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=42 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2014-12-11T06:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 110600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 1422 HAGUPIT (1422)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

POSITION ACCURACY AT 110600 UTC IS POOR.

TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA

TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=