Typhoon Best Track 2015-02-17T07:00:00Z

AXPQ20 RJTD 170700

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK

NAME 1501 MEKKHALA (1501)

PERIOD FROM JAN1300UTC TO JAN2018UTC

1300 8.7N 142.9E 1006HPA //KT 1306 8.5N 142.4E 1004HPA //KT

1312 8.6N 141.7E 1002HPA 35KT 1318 9.2N 140.7E 1002HPA 35KT

1400 10.1N 139.5E 1002HPA 35KT 1406 10.3N 138.4E 1000HPA 35KT

1412 10.9N 137.1E 1000HPA 35KT 1418 11.3N 135.6E 1000HPA 35KT

1500 11.4N 134.2E 998HPA 35KT 1506 11.6N 133.2E 996HPA 35KT

1512 11.7N 132.7E 994HPA 40KT 1518 11.6N 131.7E 992HPA 40KT

1600 11.3N 130.7E 990HPA 45KT 1606 11.3N 129.3E 985HPA 50KT

1612 11.2N 128.5E 980HPA 50KT 1618 11.0N 127.5E 975HPA 60KT

1700 11.4N 126.7E 975HPA 60KT 1706 11.9N 126.0E 975HPA 60KT

1712 12.4N 125.2E 990HPA 45KT 1718 12.7N 124.3E 992HPA 40KT

1800 13.5N 123.6E 996HPA 35KT 1806 13.9N 122.9E 996HPA 35KT

1812 14.8N 122.6E 1000HPA 35KT 1818 16.0N 122.5E 1004HPA //KT

1900 16.6N 122.8E 1010HPA //KT 1906 16.8N 123.1E 1010HPA //KT

1912 16.8N 123.3E 1012HPA //KT 1918 16.8N 123.9E 1012HPA //KT

2000 16.8N 124.4E 1012HPA //KT 2006 16.9N 124.7E 1012HPA //KT

2012 17.0N 125.0E 1012HPA //KT 2018 17.3N 125.2E 1012HPA //KT

REMARKS

TD FORMATION AT JAN1300UTC

FROM TD TO TS AT JAN1312UTC

FROM TS TO STS AT JAN1606UTC

FROM STS TO TS AT JAN1712UTC

FROM TS TO TD AT JAN1818UTC

DISSIPATION AT JAN2100UTC=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-02-11T18:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 111800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1502 HIGOS (1502)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 111800UTC 17N 152E

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 1002HPA =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-02-11T12:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 111200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1502 HIGOS (1502)

PSTN 111200UTC 16.1N 152.5E

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 16.7N 152.4E 000HPA -003KT

T=012 16.9N 152.2E +004HPA -004KT

T=018 17.3N 152.4E +002HPA -005KT

T=024 17.8N 152.7E +004HPA -007KT

T=030 18.4N 153.0E +003HPA -009KT

T=036 19.2N 153.6E +006HPA -007KT

T=042 20.0N 154.6E +004HPA -006KT

T=048 20.9N 156.0E +007HPA -006KT

T=054 21.8N 158.1E +005HPA -007KT

T=060 23.9N 160.8E +006HPA -007KT

T=066 25.3N 163.8E +002HPA -005KT

T=072 27.6N 168.0E +001HPA -002KT

T=078 29.4N 173.2E -004HPA -001KT

T=084 30.4N 177.1E -007HPA +004KT

T=090 32.6N 179.5E -012HPA +003KT

T=096 34.5N 177.6W -020HPA +010KT

T=102 36.3N 174.5W -028HPA +019KT

T=108 37.4N 171.6W -031HPA +021KT

T=114 38.0N 167.1W -027HPA +023KT

T=120 39.1N 162.7W -021HPA +013KT

T=126 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=132 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-02-11T15:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 111500

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1502 HIGOS (1502)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 111500UTC 16.2N 152.3E FAIR

MOVE NW 06KT

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 150NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH

FORECAST

24HF 121500UTC 18.3N 153.1E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-02-11T12:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 111200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1502 HIGOS (1502)

PSTN 111200UTC 16.1N 152.5E

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 16.7N 152.4E 000HPA -006KT

T=12 16.8N 152.2E +003HPA -006KT

T=18 17.1N 152.2E +001HPA -008KT

T=24 17.5N 152.4E +004HPA -011KT

T=30 18.0N 152.6E +003HPA -011KT

T=36 18.7N 153.1E +006HPA -009KT

T=42 19.4N 154.1E +004HPA -007KT

T=48 20.0N 155.4E +007HPA -007KT

T=54 20.4N 156.8E +006HPA -008KT

T=60 21.2N 158.8E +008HPA -011KT

T=66 21.7N 161.1E +006HPA -010KT

T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////=