Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2016-07-26T00:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 260000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TD

PSTN 260000UTC 18.0N 113.1E

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 30KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 18.4N 112.4E -003HPA +003KT

T=012 18.7N 111.2E -003HPA +002KT

T=018 19.2N 110.0E -003HPA +001KT

T=024 19.5N 108.6E -003HPA +001KT

T=030 19.5N 108.3E -004HPA +001KT

T=036 19.7N 108.1E -003HPA 000KT

T=042 20.0N 107.5E -003HPA -001KT

T=048 20.4N 107.1E -002HPA 000KT

T=054 20.4N 107.7E -005HPA +005KT

T=060 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=066 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=072 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=078 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=084 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=090 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=096 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=102 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=108 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=114 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=120 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=126 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=132 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2016-07-26T03:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 260300

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 260300UTC 18.4N 112.5E GOOD

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 030KT

GUST 045KT

FORECAST

24HF 270300UTC 19.9N 108.9E 110NM 70%

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2016-07-26T00:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 260000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TD

PSTN 260000UTC 18.0N 113.1E

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 30KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 18.5N 112.2E -002HPA +001KT

T=12 18.8N 111.0E -003HPA +002KT

T=18 19.3N 109.9E -003HPA +004KT

T=24 19.3N 108.6E -003HPA +002KT

T=30 19.5N 108.0E -005HPA +002KT

T=36 19.6N 107.2E -006HPA +004KT

T=42 19.8N 106.5E -007HPA +010KT

T=48 20.1N 105.9E -006HPA +008KT

T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2016-07-26T00:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 260000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 18.0N 113.1E

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS GOOD.

TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.

FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2016-07-26T00:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 260000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 260000UTC 18.0N 113.1E GOOD

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 030KT

GUST 045KT

FORECAST

24HF 270000UTC 19.7N 109.7E 110NM 70%

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT =