Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2016-08-28T06:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 280600

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TY 1610 LIONROCK (1610)

PSTN 280600UTC 27.7N 137.8E

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 90KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 28.4N 138.4E +005HPA -010KT

T=012 29.4N 140.0E +003HPA -007KT

T=018 30.5N 141.0E +005HPA -010KT

T=024 31.6N 141.9E +003HPA -012KT

T=030 32.7N 142.4E +006HPA -013KT

T=036 34.0N 142.3E +007HPA -016KT

T=042 35.4N 141.9E +011HPA -016KT

T=048 37.0N 141.1E +012HPA -016KT

T=054 38.6N 139.3E +015HPA -015KT

T=060 40.0N 136.9E +016HPA -020KT

T=066 40.9N 134.7E +020HPA -025KT

T=072 41.6N 133.0E +024HPA -034KT

T=078 42.0N 131.1E +029HPA -036KT

T=084 42.4N 130.1E +031HPA -040KT

T=090 42.2N 128.1E +034HPA -044KT

T=096 41.7N 127.7E +036HPA -046KT

T=102 41.7N 129.0E +039HPA -046KT

T=108 41.7N 128.8E +041HPA -048KT

T=114 41.3N 128.7E +043HPA -049KT

T=120 41.6N 125.1E +043HPA -050KT

T=126 42.4N 126.9E +044HPA -052KT

T=132 42.3N 126.9E +046HPA -053KT=

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2016-08-28T09:00:00Z

WTJP31 RJTD 280900

WARNING 280900.

WARNING VALID 290900.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1610 LIONROCK (1610) 940 HPA

AT 28.1N 138.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 16 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60

MILES ELSEWHERE.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210

MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 30.0N 140.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 32.2N 142.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2016-08-28T09:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 280900

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 1610 LIONROCK (1610)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 280900UTC 28.1N 138.3E GOOD

MOVE NE 16KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 090KT

GUST 130KT

50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST

30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 290900UTC 32.2N 142.5E 80NM 70%

MOVE NE 15KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

GUST 115KT

45HF 300600UTC 37.3N 142.4E 110NM 70%

MOVE N 15KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT

69HF 310600UTC 44.6N 132.2E 140NM 70%

MOVE NW 26KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 060KT

GUST 085KT =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2016-08-28T06:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 280600

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TY 1610 LIONROCK (1610)

PSTN 280600UTC 27.7N 137.8E

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 90KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 28.5N 138.4E +003HPA -030KT

T=12 29.4N 140.0E +004HPA -029KT

T=18 30.5N 141.3E +007HPA -032KT

T=24 31.5N 142.3E +005HPA -031KT

T=30 32.6N 142.9E +006HPA -033KT

T=36 33.8N 142.9E +008HPA -036KT

T=42 34.9N 142.7E +011HPA -033KT

T=48 36.1N 142.6E +009HPA -036KT

T=54 37.8N 142.6E +010HPA -029KT

T=60 40.2N 142.0E +013HPA -023KT

T=66 42.6N 139.7E +024HPA -044KT

T=72 44.4N 137.4E +029HPA -036KT

T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Five-day Track Forecast 2016-08-28T06:00:00Z

WTPQ50 RJTD 280600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 1610 LIONROCK (1610)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 280600UTC 27.7N 137.8E GOOD

MOVE NE 16KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 090KT

GUST 130KT

50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST

30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 290600UTC 31.6N 142.2E 80NM 70%

MOVE NE 15KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

GUST 115KT

48HF 300600UTC 37.3N 142.4E 110NM 70%

MOVE N 15KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT

72HF 310600UTC 44.6N 132.2E 140NM 70%

MOVE NW 26KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 060KT

GUST 085KT

96HF 010600UTC 44.7N 125.6E 240NM 70%

MOVE W 12KT =