Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-07-02T00:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 020000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TD

PSTN 020000UTC 13.7N 129.5E

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 30KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 14.7N 129.1E -002HPA -002KT

T=12 15.1N 128.6E -001HPA +002KT

T=18 15.4N 128.5E -003HPA +004KT

T=24 16.1N 128.3E -003HPA 000KT

T=30 16.8N 127.6E -006HPA 000KT

T=36 17.1N 126.9E -005HPA 000KT

T=42 17.3N 126.3E -007HPA 000KT

T=48 17.6N 125.7E -007HPA +003KT

T=54 18.0N 125.1E -009HPA +002KT

T=60 17.9N 124.7E -008HPA +006KT

T=66 18.0N 124.8E -012HPA +010KT

T=72 18.5N 124.4E -011HPA +007KT

T=78 18.8N 124.1E -015HPA +011KT

T=84 19.2N 123.8E -013HPA +011KT=

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-07-02T00:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 020000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME STS 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509)

PSTN 020000UTC 11.3N 151.9E

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 50KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 11.1N 150.2E -005HPA -016KT

T=12 10.8N 149.6E -001HPA -013KT

T=18 10.8N 149.3E -003HPA -017KT

T=24 11.0N 149.3E -004HPA -013KT

T=30 11.4N 149.4E -006HPA -015KT

T=36 12.0N 149.5E -005HPA -014KT

T=42 12.7N 148.5E -011HPA -013KT

T=48 13.1N 148.0E -010HPA -011KT

T=54 13.8N 147.5E -015HPA -005KT

T=60 14.8N 146.8E -016HPA 000KT

T=66 15.2N 145.7E -020HPA +001KT

T=72 15.7N 145.0E -023HPA +006KT

T=78 16.4N 144.2E -029HPA +014KT

T=84 17.1N 143.4E -032HPA +020KT=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2015-07-02T00:00:00Z

WTPQ31 RJTD 020000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 13.7N 129.5E

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.

FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2015-07-02T00:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 020000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 1509 CHAN-HOM (1509)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS FAIR.

STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.

STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHWEST.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.

FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-07-02T00:00:00Z

WTPQ21 RJTD 020000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 020000UTC 13.7N 129.5E FAIR

MOVE NNW SLOWLY

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 030KT

GUST 045KT

FORECAST

24HF 030000UTC 15.6N 127.8E 120NM 70%

MOVE NW 06KT

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT =