Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2016-06-25T06:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 250600

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TD

PSTN 250600UTC 14.3N 113.8E

PRES 1006HPA

MXWD 30KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=012 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=018 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=024 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=030 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=036 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=042 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=048 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=054 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=060 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=066 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=072 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=078 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=084 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=090 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=096 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=102 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=108 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=114 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=120 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=126 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=132 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2016-06-25T09:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 250900

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 250900UTC 14.4N 113.7E POOR

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 1006HPA

MXWD 030KT

GUST 045KT

FORECAST

24HF 260900UTC 14.7N 113.0E 110NM 70%

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2016-06-25T06:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 250600

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TD

PSTN 250600UTC 14.3N 113.8E

PRES 1006HPA

MXWD 30KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=12 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=18 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=24 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=30 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=36 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=42 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2016-06-25T06:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 250600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 5 FOR TD LOCATED AT 14.3N 113.8E

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

POSITION ACCURACY AT 250600 UTC IS POOR.

TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO HIGH SST AREA.

FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2016-06-25T06:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 250600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 250600UTC 14.3N 113.8E POOR

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 1006HPA

MXWD 030KT

GUST 045KT

FORECAST

24HF 260600UTC 14.6N 113.1E 110NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT =