Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2014-07-25T00:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 250000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1410 MATMO (1410)

PSTN 250000UTC 33.4N 119.7E

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 35.3N 121.3E 000HPA +001KT

T=012 37.6N 122.6E 000HPA +002KT

T=018 38.4N 123.8E +001HPA -001KT

T=024 39.0N 124.9E +003HPA -003KT

T=030 40.0N 126.9E +004HPA -007KT

T=036 40.1N 128.1E +007HPA -007KT

T=042 40.3N 131.3E +005HPA -004KT

T=048 40.7N 133.3E +004HPA -002KT

T=054 40.9N 135.5E +001HPA 000KT

T=060 41.3N 137.5E -001HPA 000KT

T=066 41.3N 139.4E -001HPA -002KT

T=072 41.2N 140.9E +001HPA -005KT

T=078 40.9N 142.8E +001HPA -008KT

T=084 41.4N 144.1E +004HPA -009KT

T=090 41.8N 145.5E +004HPA -010KT

T=096 41.9N 146.8E +006HPA -012KT

T=102 41.6N 149.8E +007HPA -012KT

T=108 41.7N 151.0E +009HPA -013KT

T=114 41.7N 151.9E +009HPA -013KT

T=120 41.8N 153.1E +011HPA -013KT

T=126 41.7N 157.4E +010HPA -013KT

T=132 42.8N 158.8E +010HPA -013KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-07-25T03:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 250300

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1410 MATMO (1410)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 250300UTC 34.2N 120.0E FAIR

MOVE NNE 16KT

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF 260300UTC 39.1N 127.3E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2014-07-25T00:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 250000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1410 MATMO (1410)

PSTN 250000UTC 33.4N 119.7E

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 35.6N 121.5E -001HPA +001KT

T=12 37.2N 123.0E -001HPA +002KT

T=18 38.4N 124.3E +001HPA -002KT

T=24 39.3N 125.9E +003HPA +003KT

T=30 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=36 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=42 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2014-07-25T00:00:00Z

WTPQ31 RJTD 250000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 1410 MATMO (1410)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

POSITION ACCURACY AT 250000 UTC IS FAIR.

TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS.=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-07-25T00:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 250000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1410 MATMO (1410)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 250000UTC 33.4N 119.7E FAIR

MOVE NNE 15KT

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF 260000UTC 38.8N 126.4E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =