Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2017-04-27T12:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 271200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1701 MUIFA (1701)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 271200UTC 17N 135E

MOVE N 10KT

PRES 1004HPA =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2017-04-27T06:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 270600

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1701 MUIFA (1701)

PSTN 270600UTC 15.7N 134.7E

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 16.3N 135.0E +003HPA 000KT

T=012 17.1N 135.4E +001HPA -001KT

T=018 17.9N 136.0E +004HPA -002KT

T=024 18.9N 137.1E +002HPA -003KT

T=030 19.9N 138.6E +004HPA -002KT

T=036 21.2N 140.3E +002HPA -001KT

T=042 22.3N 142.0E +004HPA +001KT

T=048 23.9N 144.3E +003HPA 000KT

T=054 25.6N 146.9E +005HPA +001KT

T=060 27.4N 149.8E +004HPA +001KT

T=066 29.5N 153.0E +005HPA +004KT

T=072 30.7N 156.0E +005HPA +004KT

T=078 31.9N 159.1E +007HPA +001KT

T=084 32.6N 162.4E +007HPA 000KT

T=090 33.1N 165.8E +009HPA -001KT

T=096 33.2N 168.6E +009HPA -002KT

T=102 33.4N 170.9E +010HPA -004KT

T=108 33.7N 170.5E +010HPA -004KT

T=114 34.7N 173.2E +010HPA -003KT

T=120 35.8N 175.6E +008HPA -003KT

T=126 36.6N 177.0E +007HPA -001KT

T=132 38.3N 179.6E +005HPA 000KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2017-04-27T09:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 270900

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1701 MUIFA (1701)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 270900UTC 16.4N 134.8E POOR

MOVE N 09KT

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 120NM

FORECAST

24HF 280900UTC 19.6N 138.3E 80NM 70%

MOVE NE 12KT

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

45HF 290600UTC 23.3N 144.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2017-04-27T06:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 270600

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1701 MUIFA (1701)

PSTN 270600UTC 15.7N 134.7E

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 16.2N 134.9E +002HPA +003KT

T=12 17.2N 135.3E +001HPA -001KT

T=18 18.0N 135.9E +003HPA 000KT

T=24 18.9N 137.1E +001HPA -001KT

T=30 19.9N 138.7E +003HPA +001KT

T=36 20.9N 140.4E 000HPA +002KT

T=42 22.0N 142.0E +002HPA +004KT

T=48 23.6N 144.1E +001HPA +005KT

T=54 25.3N 147.0E +002HPA +013KT

T=60 27.4N 149.8E +001HPA +012KT

T=66 29.5N 153.6E +003HPA +014KT

T=72 32.1N 158.7E +004HPA +013KT

T=78 34.2N 163.2E +003HPA +007KT

T=84 35.5N 168.1E +004HPA +003KT=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2017-04-27T06:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 270600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1701 MUIFA (1701)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

POSITION ACCURACY AT 270600 UTC IS POOR.

TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=