Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2016-11-28T00:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 280000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1625 TOKAGE (1625)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 280000UTC 17N 119E

MOVE NNE SLOWLY

PRES 1006HPA =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2016-11-27T18:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 271800

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1625 TOKAGE (1625)

PSTN 271800UTC 16.6N 118.4E

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 16.6N 118.3E +003HPA +003KT

T=012 16.6N 117.8E +003HPA +001KT

T=018 16.6N 116.7E +006HPA +001KT

T=024 16.4N 115.3E +007HPA -002KT

T=030 15.8N 114.0E +009HPA -004KT

T=036 15.3N 113.0E +007HPA -005KT

T=042 14.6N 112.3E +010HPA -004KT

T=048 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=054 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=060 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=066 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=072 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=078 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=084 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=090 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=096 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=102 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=108 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=114 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=120 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=126 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=132 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2016-11-27T21:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 272100

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1625 TOKAGE (1625)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 272100UTC 16.6N 118.2E FAIR

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 120NM

FORECAST

24HF 282100UTC 15.6N 114.2E 80NM 70%

MOVE WSW 13KT

PRES 1002HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

45HF 291800UTC 14.2N 111.3E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2016-11-27T18:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 271800

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1625 TOKAGE (1625)

PSTN 271800UTC 16.6N 118.4E

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 16.7N 118.6E +002HPA +004KT

T=12 16.9N 118.1E +003HPA -002KT

T=18 16.9N 116.9E +007HPA -002KT

T=24 16.5N 115.5E +007HPA -006KT

T=30 16.0N 114.2E +009HPA -008KT

T=36 15.5N 113.0E +008HPA -010KT

T=42 14.6N 112.1E +011HPA -009KT

T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2016-11-27T18:00:00Z

WTJP21 RJTD 271800

WARNING 271800.

WARNING VALID 281800.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1625 TOKAGE (1625) 1000 HPA

AT 16.6N 118.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 16.8N 117.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 16.1N 114.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 14.2N 111.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1008 HPA.

BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=