Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-05-20T18:00:00Z

WTPQ21 RJTD 201800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 1507 DOLPHIN (1507)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 201800UTC 36N 152E

MOVE NE 35KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-05-20T12:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 201200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME STS 1507 DOLPHIN (1507)

PSTN 201200UTC 32.9N 148.2E

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 55KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 36.0N 151.6E +001HPA 000KT

T=012 39.7N 155.5E +001HPA -002KT

T=018 44.4N 157.8E -003HPA -012KT

T=024 47.5N 161.6E -007HPA -015KT

T=030 50.5N 164.7E -016HPA -015KT

T=036 52.4N 167.0E -024HPA -010KT

T=042 53.8N 169.3E -028HPA -007KT

T=048 54.3N 170.5E -028HPA -008KT

T=054 54.5N 172.0E -025HPA -009KT

T=060 54.7N 173.4E -021HPA -011KT

T=066 54.7N 174.9E -018HPA -013KT

T=072 54.8N 176.7E -015HPA -016KT

T=078 55.2N 178.9E -013HPA -018KT

T=084 55.7N 179.8W -010HPA -019KT

T=090 56.5N 178.9W -008HPA -023KT

T=096 57.4N 178.6W -006HPA -024KT

T=102 58.2N 178.7W -004HPA -026KT

T=108 58.8N 179.3W -002HPA -026KT

T=114 58.9N 179.8E -001HPA -028KT

T=120 59.0N 178.5E +001HPA -029KT

T=126 59.0N 177.6E +003HPA -030KT

T=132 58.9N 176.9E +006HPA -031KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-05-20T15:00:00Z

WTPQ21 RJTD 201500

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME STS 1507 DOLPHIN (1507)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 201500UTC 34.7N 150.2E POOR

MOVE NNE 38KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

50KT 60NM

30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 211500UTC 48.5N 161.9E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2015-05-20T15:00:00Z

WTJP32 RJTD 201500

WARNING 201500.

WARNING VALID 211500.

STORM WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1507 DOLPHIN (1507) 980 HPA

AT 34.7N 150.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 38 KNOTS.

POSITION POOR.

MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150

MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 40.8N 158.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 48.5N 161.9E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-05-20T12:00:00Z

FXPQ21 RJTD 201200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME STS 1507 DOLPHIN (1507)

PSTN 201200UTC 32.9N 148.2E

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 55KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 36.1N 151.6E +001HPA -004KT

T=12 39.5N 156.0E +001HPA -003KT

T=18 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=24 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=30 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=36 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=42 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////=