Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-03-17T18:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 171800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1503 BAVI (1503)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 171800UTC 16N 133E

MOVE W 10KT

PRES 1002HPA =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-03-17T12:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 171200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1503 BAVI (1503)

PSTN 171200UTC 15.4N 134.5E

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 15.6N 133.8E -001HPA -003KT

T=012 15.5N 132.8E +003HPA -005KT

T=018 15.5N 132.0E +001HPA -008KT

T=024 15.6N 131.2E +005HPA -009KT

T=030 15.5N 130.5E +004HPA -011KT

T=036 15.2N 129.8E +007HPA -011KT

T=042 15.1N 129.1E +004HPA -012KT

T=048 14.9N 128.3E +007HPA -012KT

T=054 14.6N 127.4E +006HPA -012KT

T=060 14.4N 126.3E +009HPA -012KT

T=066 14.7N 124.9E +006HPA -012KT

T=072 14.1N 124.5E +008HPA -011KT

T=078 13.9N 123.7E +007HPA -012KT

T=084 14.0N 122.8E +010HPA -013KT

T=090 15.2N 121.4E +007HPA -013KT

T=096 14.4N 121.1E +010HPA -012KT

T=102 13.5N 120.5E +009HPA -012KT

T=108 13.6N 119.0E +011HPA -011KT

T=114 14.1N 118.3E +009HPA -009KT

T=120 12.6N 116.7E +009HPA -013KT

T=126 12.5N 115.6E +009HPA -013KT

T=132 13.2N 114.2E +010HPA -013KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-03-17T15:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 171500

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1503 BAVI (1503)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 171500UTC 15.5N 134.0E FAIR

MOVE W 10KT

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 150NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST

FORECAST

24HF 181500UTC 16.0N 131.0E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-03-17T12:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 171200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1503 BAVI (1503)

PSTN 171200UTC 15.4N 134.5E

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 15.5N 133.8E -001HPA -003KT

T=12 15.5N 132.8E +003HPA -007KT

T=18 15.5N 131.9E +001HPA -009KT

T=24 15.4N 131.1E +005HPA -011KT

T=30 15.2N 130.4E +004HPA -013KT

T=36 15.0N 129.7E +007HPA -013KT

T=42 14.9N 128.9E +005HPA -014KT

T=48 14.7N 127.9E +008HPA -014KT

T=54 14.4N 126.9E +006HPA -014KT

T=60 14.3N 125.7E +009HPA -015KT

T=66 14.2N 124.7E +006HPA -013KT

T=72 14.2N 123.7E +009HPA -012KT

T=78 13.9N 122.7E +007HPA -016KT

T=84 13.8N 121.8E +010HPA -016KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-03-17T12:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 171200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1503 BAVI (1503)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 171200UTC 15.4N 134.5E FAIR

MOVE W 10KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 150NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST

FORECAST

24HF 181200UTC 16.0N 131.0E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =