Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2016-09-26T00:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 260000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TY 1617 MEGI (1617)

PSTN 260000UTC 20.7N 127.4E

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 80KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 21.4N 126.3E -003HPA +003KT

T=12 21.8N 125.3E -006HPA +004KT

T=18 22.4N 124.3E -010HPA +007KT

T=24 23.2N 123.3E -013HPA +019KT

T=30 23.8N 121.7E 000HPA +005KT

T=36 24.1N 120.5E +015HPA -008KT

T=42 24.4N 119.6E +018HPA -020KT

T=48 24.9N 118.4E +025HPA -027KT

T=54 25.0N 117.1E +031HPA -038KT

T=60 24.9N 116.3E +036HPA -045KT

T=66 25.1N 116.1E +038HPA -045KT

T=72 25.3N 115.8E +043HPA -049KT

T=78 26.2N 116.3E +042HPA -051KT

T=84 27.2N 116.1E +046HPA -054KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Five-day Track Forecast 2016-09-26T00:00:00Z

WTPQ50 RJTD 260000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 1617 MEGI (1617)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 260000UTC 20.7N 127.4E GOOD

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

GUST 115KT

50KT 70NM

30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 270000UTC 23.0N 122.6E 60NM 70%

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 090KT

GUST 130KT

48HF 280000UTC 24.4N 117.7E 110NM 70%

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

72HF 290000UTC 25.4N 114.7E 130NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2016-09-26T00:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 260000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1617 MEGI (1617)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS GOOD.

TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE.

TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

TY WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO HIGH SST AREA.

FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2016-09-26T00:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 260000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 1617 MEGI (1617)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 260000UTC 20.7N 127.4E GOOD

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

GUST 115KT

50KT 70NM

30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 270000UTC 23.0N 122.6E 60NM 70%

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 090KT

GUST 130KT

48HF 280000UTC 24.4N 117.7E 110NM 70%

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 055KT

GUST 080KT

72HF 290000UTC 25.4N 114.7E 130NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2016-09-26T00:00:00Z

WTJP21 RJTD 260000

WARNING 260000.

WARNING VALID 270000.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1617 MEGI (1617) 950 HPA

AT 20.7N 127.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210

MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 22.0N 125.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 23.0N 122.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 24.4N 117.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 25.4N 114.7E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1002 HPA.

BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=