Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-08-25T18:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 251800

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1515 GONI (1515)

PSTN 251800UTC 37.7N 133.0E

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 45KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 39.1N 133.4E +002HPA 000KT

T=012 40.5N 133.7E +001HPA +004KT

T=018 41.5N 133.7E +003HPA +003KT

T=024 42.9N 133.3E +008HPA -007KT

T=030 44.5N 131.8E +017HPA -022KT

T=036 45.3N 129.5E +021HPA -028KT

T=042 45.2N 127.0E +023HPA -030KT

T=048 44.9N 126.2E +024HPA -031KT

T=054 44.9N 126.0E +026HPA -032KT

T=060 43.9N 126.6E +026HPA -031KT

T=066 44.4N 125.8E +028HPA -033KT

T=072 44.6N 125.4E +029HPA -034KT

T=078 44.8N 125.0E +030HPA -035KT

T=084 41.9N 128.1E +029HPA -031KT

T=090 42.4N 125.9E +032HPA -035KT

T=096 43.9N 124.4E +032HPA -036KT

T=102 41.8N 128.1E +032HPA -028KT

T=108 41.2N 127.2E +030HPA -027KT

T=114 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=120 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=126 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=132 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-08-25T21:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 252100

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 1515 GONI (1515)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 252100UTC 38N 133E

MOVE NNE 15KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 045KT

30KT 425NM EAST 210NM WEST =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2015-08-25T18:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 251800

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1515 GONI (1515)

PSTN 251800UTC 37.7N 133.0E

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 45KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 39.2N 133.4E +001HPA -006KT

T=12 40.4N 133.9E +001HPA -002KT

T=18 41.6N 133.8E +003HPA +003KT

T=24 43.1N 133.3E +007HPA -012KT

T=30 44.8N 131.6E +016HPA -018KT

T=36 45.5N 129.0E +021HPA -033KT

T=42 45.2N 126.8E +023HPA -034KT

T=48 44.9N 126.4E +024HPA -036KT

T=54 44.9N 126.5E +026HPA -030KT

T=60 45.3N 126.7E +027HPA -032KT

T=66 45.5N 125.8E +028HPA -038KT

T=72 45.3N 125.1E +029HPA -039KT

T=78 44.9N 124.9E +031HPA -039KT

T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2015-08-25T18:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 251800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1515 GONI (1515)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 251800UTC 37.7N 133.0E FAIR

MOVE NNE 14KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 045KT

GUST 065KT

30KT 425NM EAST 210NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF 261800UTC 42.8N 132.6E 75NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2015-08-25T18:00:00Z

WTJP21 RJTD 251800

WARNING 251800.

WARNING VALID 261800.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1515 GONI (1515) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

980 HPA

AT 37.7N 133.0E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 40.3N 133.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 42.8N 132.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=