Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2017-08-23T00:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 230000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TY 1713 HATO (1713)

PSTN 230000UTC 21.6N 114.4E

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 75KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 22.2N 113.0E +006HPA -016KT

T=012 22.6N 111.3E +011HPA -027KT

T=018 23.0N 109.5E +014HPA -031KT

T=024 23.0N 107.9E +016HPA -032KT

T=030 22.9N 106.6E +016HPA -033KT

T=036 22.4N 106.2E +017HPA -036KT

T=042 22.2N 104.6E +019HPA -028KT

T=048 22.2N 103.0E +020HPA -036KT

T=054 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=060 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=066 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=072 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=078 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=084 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=090 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=096 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=102 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=108 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=114 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=120 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=126 ///// ////// /////// //////

T=132 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2017-08-23T03:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 230300

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 1713 HATO (1713)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 230300UTC 21.9N 113.7E GOOD

MOVE WNW 16KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 080KT

GUST 115KT

50KT 50NM

30KT 180NM WEST 120NM EAST

FORECAST

24HF 240300UTC 23.2N 106.8E 60NM 70%

MOVE W 15KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 050KT

GUST 070KT

45HF 250000UTC 23.2N 100.3E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2017-08-23T03:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 230300

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 1713 HATO (1713)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 230300UTC 21.9N 113.7E GOOD

MOVE WNW 16KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 080KT

GUST 115KT

50KT 50NM

30KT 180NM WEST 120NM EAST

FORECAST

24HF 240300UTC 23.2N 106.8E 60NM 70%

MOVE W 15KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 050KT

GUST 070KT

45HF 250000UTC 23.2N 100.3E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2017-08-23T03:00:00Z

WTJP31 RJTD 230300

WARNING 230300.

WARNING VALID 240300.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1713 HATO (1713) 960 HPA

AT 21.9N 113.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 22.7N 110.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 23.2N 106.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Tropical Cyclone Warning 2017-08-23T03:00:00Z

WTJP31 RJTD 230300

WARNING 230300.

WARNING VALID 240300.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 1713 HATO (1713) 960 HPA

AT 21.9N 113.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 22.7N 110.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 23.2N 106.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=