Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-04-09T06:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 090600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1404 PEIPAH (1404)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 090600UTC 09N 129E

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 1004HPA =

Guidance for Forecast by Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System 2014-04-09T00:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 090000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1404 PEIPAH (1404)

PSTN 090000UTC 09.1N 129.3E

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 08.8N 128.9E -003HPA 000KT

T=012 08.5N 128.9E -001HPA +002KT

T=018 08.5N 129.2E -002HPA -001KT

T=024 08.8N 129.2E 000HPA -003KT

T=030 09.1N 129.0E -003HPA -002KT

T=036 09.3N 128.7E 000HPA -003KT

T=042 09.4N 128.2E -002HPA -004KT

T=048 09.6N 127.7E 000HPA -004KT

T=054 09.8N 127.1E -002HPA -005KT

T=060 10.0N 126.6E +001HPA -007KT

T=066 10.2N 126.0E 000HPA -009KT

T=072 10.4N 125.4E +003HPA -009KT

T=078 10.3N 125.2E +001HPA -010KT

T=084 11.2N 124.5E +003HPA -010KT

T=090 11.5N 123.8E +002HPA -011KT

T=096 11.9N 123.2E +005HPA -013KT

T=102 11.5N 123.1E +004HPA -014KT

T=108 12.9N 122.0E +006HPA -013KT

T=114 13.2N 121.4E +005HPA -014KT

T=120 13.4N 121.0E +007HPA -014KT

T=126 13.4N 120.9E +004HPA -014KT

T=132 14.0N 120.1E +006HPA -012KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2014-04-09T03:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 090300

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1404 PEIPAH (1404)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 090300UTC 09.2N 129.3E FAIR

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH

FORECAST

24HF 100300UTC 09.7N 128.8E 70NM 70%

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

45HF 110000UTC 10.6N 127.6E 110NM 70%

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT

69HF 120000UTC 11.5N 126.2E 160NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT =

Guidance for Forecast by Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System 2014-04-09T00:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 090000

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1404 PEIPAH (1404)

PSTN 090000UTC 09.1N 129.3E

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 35KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 08.8N 129.0E -003HPA -001KT

T=12 08.5N 129.0E -002HPA +005KT

T=18 08.6N 129.2E -005HPA +003KT

T=24 08.7N 129.1E -004HPA +003KT

T=30 09.0N 129.0E -009HPA +009KT

T=36 09.2N 128.5E -011HPA +016KT

T=42 09.4N 128.1E -015HPA +020KT

T=48 09.7N 127.5E -018HPA +026KT

T=54 10.0N 126.8E -020HPA +025KT

T=60 10.2N 126.0E -016HPA +024KT

T=66 10.2N 125.1E -010HPA +011KT

T=72 10.3N 124.6E -003HPA +006KT

T=78 10.6N 124.0E -003HPA 000KT

T=84 10.7N 123.4E +003HPA -005KT=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2014-04-09T00:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 090000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 1404 PEIPAH (1404)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.

POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.

3.MOTION FORECAST

POSITION ACCURACY AT 090000 UTC IS FAIR.

TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=