Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-01-03T18:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 031800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 1801 BOLAVEN (1801)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

TS (BOLAVEN) IS LOCATED AT 11.6N, 112.2E. THE CURRENT POSITION IS

BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITION ACCURACY

IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR

DEVELOPMENT WITH INFLUENCE OF DECREASE IN SST, LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS

AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, SO IT HAS KEPT ITS INTENSITY IN PAST

SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY

ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS HAVE

SEPARATED FROM CSC.

3.MOTION FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL

FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET NAM BY FT18. THE JMA MOTION

FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM, AND REFERRED TO OTHER NWP MODELS. THE

JMA MOTION FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12, BUT THEN THE

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN

EACH NUMERICAL MODELS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE

OF DECREASE IN SST AND WEAK VWS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL

WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 BECAUSE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL

WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS

BASED ON CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCES INCLUDING GSM.

=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-01-03T12:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 031200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 1801 BOLAVEN (1801)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

TS (BOLAVEN) IS LOCATED AT 11.4N, 113.0E. THE CURRENT POSITION IS

BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITION ACCURACY

IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR

DEVELOPMENT WITH INFLUENCE OF DECREASE IN SST, LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS

AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, SO IT HAS KEPT ITS INTENSITY IN PAST

SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY

ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND CSC.

3.MOTION FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL

FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET NAM BY FT24. THE JMA MOTION

FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM, AND REFERRED TO OTHER NWP MODELS. THE

JMA MOTION FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE EACH NUMERICAL

MODEL IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE

OF DECREASE IN SST AND WEAK VWS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL

WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 BECAUSE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL

WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS

BASED ON CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCES INCLUDING GSM.

=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-01-03T06:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 030600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 1801 BOLAVEN (1801)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

TS (BOLAVEN) IS LOCATED AT 11.0N, 114.8E. THE CURRENT POSITION IS

BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITION ACCURACY

IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR

DEVELOPMENT WITH INFLUENCE OF WARM SST AND HIGH TCHP, SO IT HAS

KEPT ITS INTENSITY IN PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS

BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS HAVE

SEPARATED FROM CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE GOOD CLOUD FEATURES OF

ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.

3.MOTION FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL

FT24. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE

WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET NAM BY

FT48. THE JMA MOTION FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM, AND REFERRED TO

OTHER NWP MODELS. THE JMA MOTION FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR

BECAUSE EACH NUMERICAL MODEL IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE

OF WARM SST. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 BECAUSE

IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON

CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCES INCLUDING GSM.

=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-01-03T00:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 030000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1801 BOLAVEN (1801)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (BOLAVEN). TS (BOLAVEN) IS

LOCATED AT 10.7N, 116.1E. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON

ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITION ACCURACY IS FAIR.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT

WITH INFLUENCE OF WARM SST, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS, SO IT HAS

DEVELOPED IN PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON

DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN

PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE

CB CLUSTERS GATHER AROUND CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE GOOD CLOUD

FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY

SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND

CSC.

3.MOTION FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL

SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL FT48. THE JMA MOTION FORECAST IS BASED ON

GSM. THE JMA MOTION FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE EACH

NUMERICAL MODEL IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE

OF WARM SST. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 BECAUSE

IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY

FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCES.

=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-01-02T18:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 021800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 6 FOR TD LOCATED AT 10.3N 117.0E

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

TD IS LOCATED AT 10.3N, 117.0E. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON

ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITION ACCURACY IS POOR

BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IN A FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH INFLUENCE OF WARM SST, HIGH TCHP,

WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BUT ITS STRUCTURE HAS NOT

BEEN FIRM, SO IT HAS KEPT INTENSITY IN PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT

INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF

MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CB CLUSTERS

ARE GATHERING AROUND CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE GOOD CLOUD

FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY

AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY

SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND

CSC.

3.MOTION FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL

SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL FT24. THE JMA MOTION FORECAST IS BASED ON

GSM, AND REFERRED TO OTHER NWP MODELS. THE JMA MOTION FORECAST

CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE EACH NUMERICAL MODEL IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WARM

SST, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BE

UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS

BASED ON GUIDANCES.

=