Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-06-14T12:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 141200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO. 4 FOR TD LOCATED AT 22.5N 119.9E

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

A TD IS LOCATED AT 22.5N, 119.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT

POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. THE SYSTEM

IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE

OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.

HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO

MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON

CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS

ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK

FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST

CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE

AGREEMENT.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF

INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM

WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY

FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.

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