Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2018-04-01T18:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 011800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1803 JELAWAT (1803)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 011800UTC 20N 148E

MOVE E 10KT

PRES 1000HPA =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2018-04-01T12:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 011200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1803 JELAWAT (1803)

PSTN 011200UTC 20.4N 146.6E

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 40KT

FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=006 20.1N 147.0E -002HPA +001KT

T=012 19.9N 147.3E +001HPA -002KT

T=018 19.7N 147.6E 000HPA -003KT

T=024 19.5N 147.9E +004HPA -005KT

T=030 19.5N 148.3E +003HPA -008KT

T=036 19.5N 148.8E +006HPA -008KT

T=042 19.5N 149.5E +005HPA -008KT

T=048 19.6N 150.2E +008HPA -007KT

T=054 19.8N 150.8E +007HPA -008KT

T=060 19.9N 151.3E +009HPA -007KT

T=066 19.9N 151.6E +007HPA -007KT

T=072 20.0N 151.8E +010HPA -009KT

T=078 20.1N 152.1E +009HPA -011KT

T=084 20.3N 152.6E +011HPA -012KT

T=090 20.2N 153.0E +010HPA -011KT

T=096 20.3N 153.3E +012HPA -012KT

T=102 20.4N 153.7E +011HPA -013KT

T=108 20.7N 154.9E +013HPA -013KT

T=114 20.9N 154.9E +012HPA -014KT

T=120 21.4N 155.6E +015HPA -014KT

T=126 22.0N 156.4E +014HPA -016KT

T=132 22.8N 157.1E +016HPA -016KT=

Tropical Cyclone Advisory for Analysis and Forecast 2018-04-01T15:00:00Z

WTPQ20 RJTD 011500

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1803 JELAWAT (1803)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 011500UTC 20.4N 147.5E FAIR

MOVE E 10KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT

30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 021500UTC 20.0N 150.3E 60NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Guidance – Forecast Track by Numerical Weather Prediction 2018-04-01T12:00:00Z

FXPQ20 RJTD 011200

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST

NAME TS 1803 JELAWAT (1803)

PSTN 011200UTC 20.4N 146.6E

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 40KT

FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL

TIME PSTN PRES MXWD

(CHANGE FROM T=0)

T=06 20.0N 147.0E -002HPA 000KT

T=12 19.9N 147.4E +001HPA -001KT

T=18 19.7N 147.8E 000HPA -002KT

T=24 19.6N 148.0E +004HPA -004KT

T=30 19.5N 148.4E +003HPA -007KT

T=36 19.4N 148.8E +006HPA -007KT

T=42 19.1N 149.3E +005HPA -009KT

T=48 19.0N 149.7E +008HPA -008KT

T=54 19.1N 150.1E +007HPA -007KT

T=60 19.0N 150.4E +010HPA -004KT

T=66 18.9N 150.5E +008HPA -007KT

T=72 19.1N 150.4E +011HPA -007KT

T=78 19.4N 150.1E +010HPA -011KT

T=84 19.5N 150.1E +012HPA -015KT=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-04-01T12:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 011200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.35 FOR TS 1803 JELAWAT (1803)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

TS JELAWAT IS LOCATED AT 20.4N, 146.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT

POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS,

REDUCED TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM

TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT

INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE

SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE

PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED

ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF

INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM

WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS

BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.

=