Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-04-01T12:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 011200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.35 FOR TS 1803 JELAWAT (1803)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

TS JELAWAT IS LOCATED AT 20.4N, 146.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT

POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS,

REDUCED TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM

TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT

INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE

SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE

PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED

ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF

INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM

WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS

BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.

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Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-04-01T06:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 010600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.34 FOR TS 1803 JELAWAT (1803)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

TS JELAWAT IS LOCATED AT 20.0N, 146.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT

POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.

THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER

THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS

CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION

ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND

SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM

IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR

IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE

PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED

ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG

NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF

INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE

JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.

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Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-04-01T00:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 010000 CCA

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.33 FOR STS 1803 JELAWAT (1803)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

STS JELAWAT IS LOCATED AT 19.1N, 145.1E. INFORMATION ON THE

CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS

FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.

THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.

INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY

ANALYSES.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE

PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE

CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE

PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED

ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG

NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF

INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE

JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA

INCLUDING GSM.

=

Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-04-01T00:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 010000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.33 FOR STS 1803 JELAWAT (1803)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

STS JELAWAT IS LOCATED AT 19.1N, 145.1E. INFORMATION ON THE

CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS

FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.

THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.

INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY

ANALYSES.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE

PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE

CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE

PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED

ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG

NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF

INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE

JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA

INCLUDING GSM.

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Tropical Cyclone Prognostic Reasoning 2018-03-31T18:00:00Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 311800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.32 FOR STS 1803 JELAWAT (1803)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

STS JELAWAT IS LOCATED AT 19.0N, 143.0E. INFORMATION ON THE

CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS

FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM

TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT

INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE

PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE

CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD

CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE

PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY

DECELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL

FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND

REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS

LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF

INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL

FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF

GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

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