VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY FEBRUARY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.11 1.18 1.22 0.99 0.99 18.1 18.6 48 0.16 0.15 1.98 2.02 0.98 0.98 27.2 27.8 72 0.18 0.17 2.92 2.97 0.96 0.96 36.0 36.5 96 0.14 4.18 0.92 45.9 120 0.08 5.47 0.86 54.3 144 0.04 6.72 0.80 61.4 168 0.07 7.84 0.72 67.4 192 0.05 9.03 0.62 73.5 216 0.01 10.09 0.51 77.6 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.01 -1.21 8.53 8.60 1.00 1.00 10.3 10.3 48 -1.85 -2.10 16.77 16.91 0.99 0.99 18.3 18.5 72 -2.62 -2.95 26.97 27.08 0.97 0.97 26.5 26.6 96 -3.94 39.69 0.94 34.7 120 -5.30 53.53 0.89 41.7 144 -6.55 66.98 0.83 47.9 168 -7.24 79.66 0.75 52.9 192 -8.34 91.71 0.67 57.8 216 -9.10 102.92 0.59 61.2 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -1.02 10.36 10.39 1.00 1.00 7.9 7.8 48 -2.10 -2.31 21.05 21.08 0.99 0.99 13.6 13.6 72 -3.63 -3.86 33.68 33.39 0.98 0.98 19.6 19.5 96 -5.74 48.32 0.95 25.8 120 -7.62 66.13 0.91 31.9 144 -9.54 83.87 0.85 37.6 168 -11.12 101.36 0.78 42.7 192 -12.63 116.44 0.71 47.1 216 -13.25 132.48 0.62 51.1 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.06 0.56 0.57 0.99 0.99 48 -0.11 -0.12 1.04 1.03 0.97 0.97 72 -0.18 -0.18 1.53 1.52 0.93 0.94 96 -0.24 2.06 0.88 120 -0.30 2.65 0.80 144 -0.36 3.17 0.72 168 -0.42 3.66 0.63 192 -0.48 4.05 0.54 216 -0.49 4.47 0.45 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.07 0.73 0.74 0.98 0.98 48 0.08 0.09 1.22 1.21 0.95 0.96 72 0.08 0.09 1.70 1.70 0.91 0.91 96 0.06 2.20 0.84 120 0.07 2.66 0.77 144 0.04 3.05 0.69 168 0.01 3.40 0.61 192 0.01 3.71 0.54 216 0.03 3.96 0.47 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.01 2.60 2.61 48 -0.08 -0.06 4.63 4.67 72 -0.17 -0.13 6.59 6.65 96 -0.19 8.68 120 -0.24 10.60 144 -0.28 12.29 168 -0.31 13.78 192 -0.28 15.27 216 -0.23 16.24 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.12 3.55 3.59 48 -0.26 -0.21 5.92 5.99 72 -0.39 -0.32 8.29 8.24 96 -0.47 10.68 120 -0.50 13.22 144 -0.60 15.61 168 -0.65 17.93 192 -0.67 19.98 216 -0.65 21.72 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.33 3.28 3.27 0.97 0.98 27.1 27.5 48 -0.38 -0.25 4.88 4.69 0.93 0.95 36.7 36.8 72 -0.39 -0.22 5.86 5.80 0.90 0.92 42.2 42.2 96 -0.26 6.96 0.89 46.1 120 -0.15 7.68 0.87 49.6 144 -0.38 8.45 0.84 52.8 168 -0.90 9.35 0.80 55.9 192 -1.19 10.76 0.72 59.0 216 -1.50 11.81 0.67 61.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.30 4.96 5.05 0.99 0.99 21.5 21.7 48 -0.49 -0.35 7.51 7.79 0.98 0.98 30.3 30.4 72 -1.81 -1.75 9.89 10.18 0.96 0.96 35.9 36.1 96 -3.68 12.43 0.94 40.3 120 -5.64 14.81 0.92 44.2 144 -7.98 17.56 0.89 47.7 168 -10.58 20.33 0.86 50.6 192 -12.84 23.26 0.83 53.3 216 -15.17 26.04 0.79 55.6 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 0.41 0.42 0.96 0.96 48 0.03 0.03 0.67 0.68 0.90 0.91 72 0.06 0.05 0.84 0.85 0.84 0.86 96 0.05 0.96 0.82 120 0.03 1.06 0.78 144 0.02 1.15 0.73 168 0.01 1.22 0.70 192 -0.02 1.32 0.65 216 -0.07 1.46 0.58 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.05 0.36 0.37 0.97 0.97 48 -0.05 -0.07 0.53 0.54 0.94 0.94 72 -0.08 -0.10 0.65 0.66 0.91 0.91 96 -0.15 0.76 0.87 120 -0.22 0.86 0.84 144 -0.30 0.96 0.80 168 -0.38 1.04 0.77 192 -0.45 1.12 0.74 216 -0.53 1.20 0.71 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.01 1.66 1.65 48 -0.08 -0.03 2.49 2.46 72 -0.15 -0.11 3.01 2.95 96 -0.18 3.34 120 -0.22 3.68 144 -0.24 3.98 168 -0.28 4.26 192 -0.31 4.58 216 -0.31 4.83 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.52 3.40 3.40 48 -0.83 -0.87 4.99 4.98 72 -1.01 -1.03 6.06 6.02 96 -1.18 6.81 120 -1.30 7.54 144 -1.36 8.22 168 -1.34 8.83 192 -1.26 9.42 216 -1.17 9.91 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.04 0.98 0.94 0.99 0.99 14.8 14.4 48 -0.11 -0.10 1.81 1.77 0.97 0.98 24.5 24.3 72 -0.16 -0.13 2.74 2.71 0.94 0.94 33.4 33.3 96 -0.12 3.72 0.89 41.4 120 -0.08 4.66 0.83 48.5 144 -0.03 5.80 0.72 55.1 168 -0.01 6.95 0.61 61.5 192 0.05 7.97 0.47 66.2 216 0.15 8.59 0.39 69.4 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.54 0.50 8.64 8.41 1.00 1.00 11.2 11.0 48 0.59 0.53 17.09 16.94 0.98 0.99 20.1 19.8 72 0.48 0.48 27.11 27.11 0.96 0.96 28.4 28.2 96 0.62 38.34 0.92 35.9 120 0.67 49.67 0.87 42.8 144 0.62 63.51 0.79 49.7 168 0.40 77.78 0.68 56.2 192 0.19 90.73 0.55 61.7 216 0.02 98.12 0.47 64.9 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.24 11.06 10.86 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.4 48 -0.47 -0.35 22.22 22.30 0.99 0.99 16.9 16.9 72 -1.77 -1.61 35.96 36.15 0.96 0.96 24.6 24.6 96 -2.81 52.02 0.93 32.2 120 -4.08 67.82 0.87 39.1 144 -5.67 86.67 0.79 45.9 168 -6.91 107.05 0.67 52.4 192 -7.93 126.03 0.54 58.1 216 -8.66 138.32 0.45 61.5 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 0.53 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 0.01 0.02 1.01 1.01 0.96 0.96 72 0.00 0.01 1.49 1.50 0.91 0.91 96 0.00 1.97 0.85 120 -0.02 2.39 0.78 144 -0.07 2.85 0.68 168 -0.10 3.33 0.55 192 -0.15 3.83 0.41 216 -0.19 4.13 0.32 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.06 0.63 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.13 -0.13 1.14 1.14 0.95 0.95 72 -0.23 -0.23 1.67 1.66 0.88 0.88 96 -0.35 2.17 0.80 120 -0.47 2.60 0.71 144 -0.58 3.01 0.61 168 -0.66 3.37 0.51 192 -0.70 3.67 0.41 216 -0.72 3.89 0.34 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.12 2.33 2.31 48 -0.23 -0.24 4.30 4.30 72 -0.35 -0.36 6.14 6.15 96 -0.50 7.83 120 -0.63 9.39 144 -0.72 11.10 168 -0.77 12.73 192 -0.81 14.09 216 -0.80 15.04 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.25 3.33 3.30 48 -0.52 -0.47 5.88 5.91 72 -0.74 -0.67 8.57 8.54 96 -0.93 11.21 120 -1.15 13.66 144 -1.26 16.21 168 -1.29 18.93 192 -1.31 21.11 216 -1.24 22.70 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.71 -2.38 10.23 10.09 0.99 0.98 48 -4.02 -3.09 14.97 15.05 0.98 0.98 72 -1.76 -2.00 20.23 20.18 0.96 0.96 96 -4.41 28.55 0.92 120 -7.14 35.62 0.89 144 -10.55 45.40 0.83 168 -11.02 51.66 0.73 192 -12.62 59.87 0.69 216 -14.46 66.63 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.68 -4.93 11.67 12.11 0.99 0.99 48 -6.60 -7.17 19.80 19.94 0.98 0.98 72 -4.78 -6.77 28.35 28.34 0.97 0.97 96 -9.11 41.44 0.94 120 -11.29 55.89 0.91 144 -12.72 69.64 0.86 168 -14.29 83.43 0.78 192 -19.80 95.80 0.73 216 -29.57 106.54 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 -2.49 14.06 13.90 0.99 0.99 48 -3.29 -5.62 24.59 25.00 0.99 0.98 72 -1.30 -4.75 37.40 36.59 0.97 0.97 96 -5.76 52.43 0.95 120 -5.43 72.66 0.92 144 -7.20 91.87 0.87 168 -7.44 112.24 0.80 192 -13.51 128.76 0.78 216 -28.37 148.12 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.59 1.84 2.02 0.93 0.94 48 -0.40 -0.60 2.11 2.30 0.95 0.94 72 -0.24 -0.46 2.53 2.57 0.94 0.94 96 -0.43 3.19 0.92 120 -0.33 3.93 0.90 144 -0.16 4.79 0.83 168 -0.24 5.35 0.77 192 -0.52 6.11 0.71 216 -1.14 6.78 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.01 1.03 1.03 0.96 0.96 48 -0.01 -0.10 1.37 1.40 0.96 0.96 72 -0.07 -0.16 1.89 1.81 0.95 0.95 96 -0.15 2.43 0.91 120 -0.11 3.13 0.86 144 -0.02 3.80 0.79 168 0.02 4.41 0.72 192 -0.23 5.03 0.70 216 -0.69 5.63 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.77 0.68 1.60 1.57 0.94 0.93 48 0.75 0.63 1.92 1.86 0.93 0.93 72 0.72 0.62 2.28 2.23 0.90 0.90 96 0.72 2.68 0.84 120 0.84 3.08 0.81 144 0.83 3.53 0.73 168 0.94 3.99 0.67 192 1.17 4.38 0.61 216 1.38 4.65 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.90 4.24 4.46 48 -0.82 -1.00 4.97 5.18 72 -0.86 -1.06 5.77 5.95 96 -1.19 7.21 120 -1.07 8.11 144 -0.95 9.40 168 -1.07 10.53 192 -1.11 11.69 216 -1.37 11.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.41 4.84 4.80 48 -0.90 -0.65 6.19 6.17 72 -0.93 -0.65 7.75 7.43 96 -0.62 9.70 120 -0.63 11.55 144 -0.77 13.49 168 -0.59 15.07 192 -0.36 17.12 216 0.05 18.04 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.56 5.98 5.76 48 -0.76 -0.74 7.97 7.85 72 -0.73 -0.65 10.00 9.92 96 -0.68 12.57 120 -0.74 15.44 144 -0.99 18.50 168 -0.67 20.68 192 -0.16 23.22 216 0.48 25.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.79 -5.21 11.16 10.69 0.97 0.97 48 -7.27 -7.65 16.10 16.14 0.95 0.95 72 -7.20 -9.87 23.05 22.60 0.94 0.94 96 -12.42 29.70 0.92 120 -12.58 35.84 0.90 144 -15.53 44.21 0.87 168 -19.54 58.78 0.82 192 -25.81 68.03 0.78 216 -26.94 75.17 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.18 -8.32 14.32 13.06 0.98 0.98 48 -12.52 -12.66 21.37 21.81 0.98 0.97 72 -13.90 -16.91 31.90 31.10 0.96 0.96 96 -20.06 42.43 0.94 120 -22.86 55.45 0.90 144 -28.34 67.41 0.87 168 -34.48 87.18 0.79 192 -40.98 102.69 0.73 216 -37.69 107.00 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.64 -8.17 17.56 16.37 0.98 0.98 48 -13.98 -13.09 26.53 27.36 0.98 0.98 72 -15.83 -19.17 40.07 39.50 0.96 0.97 96 -23.66 55.00 0.95 120 -26.23 73.72 0.91 144 -31.94 87.33 0.88 168 -38.33 114.53 0.81 192 -44.39 136.84 0.73 216 -35.00 144.03 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.36 1.44 1.34 0.86 0.86 48 -0.64 -0.56 1.66 1.58 0.88 0.87 72 -0.70 -0.67 1.93 1.82 0.87 0.88 96 -0.70 2.18 0.87 120 -0.83 2.75 0.84 144 -0.98 3.24 0.79 168 -1.12 4.06 0.70 192 -1.25 4.45 0.68 216 -1.11 4.65 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.01 0.86 0.81 0.95 0.95 48 -0.10 -0.06 1.23 1.20 0.94 0.93 72 -0.21 -0.23 1.68 1.59 0.91 0.92 96 -0.35 2.06 0.88 120 -0.43 2.79 0.82 144 -0.58 3.13 0.80 168 -0.68 3.89 0.72 192 -0.58 4.25 0.66 216 -0.14 4.29 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.39 0.45 1.20 1.19 0.91 0.92 48 0.44 0.48 1.54 1.53 0.90 0.91 72 0.54 0.58 1.98 1.94 0.87 0.87 96 0.64 2.23 0.84 120 0.65 2.74 0.78 144 0.72 3.14 0.74 168 0.73 3.49 0.66 192 0.66 3.59 0.62 216 0.67 3.80 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.64 4.05 3.96 48 -0.71 -0.70 4.73 4.62 72 -0.63 -0.67 5.58 5.42 96 -0.50 6.37 120 -0.56 7.46 144 -0.49 8.45 168 -0.39 9.62 192 0.38 10.74 216 0.91 11.20 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.55 4.43 4.30 48 -0.50 -0.52 5.90 5.74 72 -0.41 -0.52 7.80 7.28 96 -0.55 9.28 120 -0.23 11.74 144 -0.16 13.01 168 0.44 15.83 192 0.77 17.62 216 1.11 17.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.44 5.09 5.15 48 -0.44 -0.47 7.14 7.11 72 -0.41 -0.54 9.47 8.98 96 -0.50 11.86 120 0.31 15.60 144 0.47 17.52 168 1.48 21.52 192 1.87 24.38 216 3.10 25.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 5.17 2.57 12.94 12.04 0.96 0.95 48 5.47 2.20 15.42 14.43 0.95 0.95 72 5.40 3.00 18.54 17.54 0.94 0.93 96 3.72 22.03 0.91 120 4.79 27.54 0.90 144 4.57 33.69 0.87 168 5.49 37.87 0.86 192 5.17 41.08 0.83 216 5.13 45.66 0.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 118 12 UTC = 118 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.48 -0.88 13.15 13.22 0.97 0.97 48 -0.03 -2.34 17.86 18.12 0.97 0.97 72 -1.70 -2.87 24.15 24.31 0.96 0.96 96 -3.15 32.53 0.94 120 -2.87 40.35 0.92 144 -3.60 47.34 0.89 168 -4.94 54.77 0.85 192 -6.40 61.08 0.82 216 -8.21 65.63 0.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 130 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.15 -4.09 18.73 18.76 0.97 0.97 48 -4.30 -8.10 24.38 25.08 0.97 0.97 72 -9.72 -11.96 33.98 34.88 0.96 0.96 96 -14.94 45.79 0.94 120 -16.82 56.38 0.92 144 -19.46 65.23 0.89 168 -23.06 77.47 0.85 192 -25.58 88.17 0.81 216 -26.17 95.53 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.50 1.81 1.88 0.88 0.89 48 -0.32 -0.49 2.02 2.10 0.90 0.91 72 -0.28 -0.44 2.22 2.31 0.91 0.91 96 -0.33 2.61 0.91 120 -0.24 2.99 0.89 144 -0.20 3.29 0.88 168 -0.27 3.69 0.85 192 -0.20 4.10 0.81 216 -0.27 4.40 0.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 115 12 UTC = 114 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.26 1.13 1.08 0.94 0.94 48 -0.40 -0.41 1.41 1.37 0.93 0.94 72 -0.56 -0.55 1.76 1.76 0.93 0.93 96 -0.70 2.15 0.91 120 -0.80 2.61 0.88 144 -0.92 2.94 0.84 168 -1.09 3.32 0.80 192 -1.24 3.71 0.76 216 -1.33 3.95 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.38 1.62 1.67 0.91 0.90 48 0.44 0.42 1.93 1.95 0.91 0.90 72 0.35 0.31 2.26 2.30 0.90 0.89 96 0.28 2.63 0.87 120 0.25 3.03 0.84 144 0.16 3.24 0.81 168 0.14 3.50 0.78 192 0.25 3.86 0.75 216 0.47 4.00 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 130 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.94 3.86 3.72 48 -1.08 -1.12 4.24 4.20 72 -1.23 -1.28 4.70 4.78 96 -1.34 5.43 120 -1.40 6.11 144 -1.33 6.76 168 -1.35 7.20 192 -1.20 7.69 216 -1.14 8.04 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 114 12 UTC = 114 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.35 4.80 4.68 48 -0.76 -0.50 5.84 5.78 72 -1.12 -0.81 7.05 7.05 96 -1.01 8.42 120 -1.10 9.68 144 -1.18 10.63 168 -1.29 11.50 192 -1.17 12.42 216 -1.03 13.09 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.83 5.82 5.77 48 -1.20 -1.26 7.10 7.07 72 -1.82 -1.90 8.55 8.77 96 -2.19 10.50 120 -2.37 12.01 144 -2.50 12.99 168 -2.68 14.87 192 -2.54 16.45 216 -2.43 17.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.87 7.63 7.98 0.96 0.97 48 -0.18 0.50 10.64 11.30 0.96 0.96 72 -1.24 0.47 15.20 15.85 0.93 0.95 96 -0.22 22.69 0.93 120 0.14 23.69 0.91 144 1.97 31.60 0.85 168 3.58 38.18 0.77 192 8.52 44.36 0.67 216 11.36 48.38 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.39 -4.87 9.43 10.90 0.95 0.98 48 -2.31 -3.42 12.96 13.92 0.96 0.97 72 -4.82 -4.76 18.00 18.00 0.94 0.97 96 -6.67 25.48 0.95 120 -6.12 31.36 0.95 144 -7.38 40.57 0.90 168 -5.13 51.14 0.85 192 -2.89 61.52 0.76 216 1.63 66.93 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.07 -9.14 13.90 15.49 0.96 0.97 48 -9.96 -10.89 19.90 21.63 0.97 0.97 72 -16.24 -16.41 28.74 30.60 0.95 0.95 96 -22.32 43.51 0.93 120 -23.78 54.85 0.92 144 -28.19 64.40 0.90 168 -26.39 81.47 0.79 192 -26.38 94.03 0.71 216 -21.64 103.13 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.18 1.26 1.23 0.80 0.86 48 0.40 0.22 1.42 1.39 0.86 0.91 72 0.45 0.20 1.64 1.65 0.87 0.89 96 0.16 1.90 0.86 120 0.17 2.21 0.80 144 0.11 2.49 0.76 168 0.15 2.73 0.72 192 -0.04 3.29 0.72 216 0.15 3.72 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.21 0.89 0.94 0.85 0.89 48 -0.33 -0.29 1.08 1.21 0.88 0.91 72 -0.50 -0.43 1.32 1.38 0.86 0.90 96 -0.55 1.74 0.88 120 -0.54 2.15 0.80 144 -0.81 2.24 0.80 168 -0.69 2.71 0.70 192 -0.88 3.09 0.58 216 -0.72 3.32 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.10 0.95 1.07 0.84 0.85 48 -0.13 -0.11 1.19 1.30 0.84 0.84 72 -0.31 -0.30 1.44 1.57 0.83 0.83 96 -0.55 1.87 0.81 120 -0.77 2.33 0.78 144 -0.84 2.55 0.66 168 -1.11 3.06 0.55 192 -1.09 3.14 0.48 216 -1.13 3.14 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.64 3.93 3.91 48 -0.68 -0.80 4.50 4.42 72 -0.85 -1.00 5.16 5.21 96 -1.22 5.98 120 -1.45 6.85 144 -1.45 7.23 168 -1.29 8.37 192 -1.08 9.09 216 -1.45 9.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 35 12 UTC = 18 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.37 4.04 4.47 48 -0.71 -0.59 4.94 5.10 72 -0.64 -0.56 5.96 6.00 96 -0.60 7.14 120 -0.83 8.32 144 -1.25 9.45 168 -1.08 10.51 192 -1.25 12.06 216 -1.64 12.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 36 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.29 -1.46 5.57 6.43 48 -1.49 -1.54 7.02 8.01 72 -1.68 -1.65 8.88 10.01 96 -1.64 11.50 120 -2.13 13.31 144 -2.45 15.17 168 -1.75 17.39 192 -2.52 19.89 216 -3.03 21.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 36 12 UTC = 18 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.03 -1.56 8.16 8.28 0.74 0.73 48 -1.73 -1.76 8.69 8.92 0.81 0.80 72 -2.16 -2.15 9.24 9.47 0.80 0.81 96 -2.76 10.09 0.79 120 -2.85 10.66 0.79 144 -3.66 11.41 0.79 168 -4.58 12.24 0.74 192 -4.87 13.53 0.71 216 -4.71 14.93 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.70 -2.65 10.67 11.37 0.60 0.64 48 -3.45 -2.68 11.10 12.12 0.75 0.75 72 -4.23 -3.16 11.63 12.77 0.77 0.79 96 -4.19 13.27 0.78 120 -4.81 13.90 0.76 144 -6.29 15.24 0.75 168 -7.86 16.73 0.71 192 -9.08 18.20 0.66 216 -9.87 19.65 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.25 -6.37 14.82 15.42 0.63 0.60 48 -7.51 -6.79 15.77 16.18 0.76 0.73 72 -8.55 -7.80 17.28 17.54 0.78 0.76 96 -9.21 18.69 0.74 120 -10.50 20.22 0.73 144 -12.65 22.40 0.73 168 -15.30 24.70 0.70 192 -17.92 27.65 0.67 216 -20.12 30.26 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.02 1.02 1.02 0.51 0.50 48 -0.02 0.00 1.07 1.08 0.59 0.57 72 0.00 0.00 1.10 1.14 0.62 0.61 96 0.02 1.16 0.67 120 0.01 1.23 0.63 144 -0.01 1.29 0.61 168 -0.02 1.30 0.59 192 -0.05 1.32 0.58 216 -0.14 1.47 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.14 0.84 0.87 0.56 0.56 48 -0.19 -0.14 0.92 0.95 0.63 0.63 72 -0.20 -0.16 1.00 1.02 0.65 0.65 96 -0.17 1.07 0.65 120 -0.18 1.14 0.66 144 -0.18 1.21 0.63 168 -0.23 1.27 0.60 192 -0.30 1.33 0.59 216 -0.35 1.40 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 55 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.05 0.70 0.70 0.57 0.56 48 0.08 0.03 0.77 0.77 0.61 0.61 72 0.08 0.02 0.86 0.83 0.61 0.61 96 0.00 0.89 0.59 120 -0.05 0.95 0.60 144 -0.10 1.01 0.61 168 -0.19 1.07 0.60 192 -0.28 1.15 0.59 216 -0.39 1.21 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 55 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.51 3.76 3.65 48 -0.29 -0.45 4.20 4.09 72 -0.40 -0.51 4.41 4.26 96 -0.47 4.51 120 -0.45 4.74 144 -0.41 4.86 168 -0.48 5.00 192 -0.49 5.24 216 -0.52 5.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 57 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.94 -0.79 3.90 3.89 48 -1.05 -0.89 4.29 4.31 72 -1.12 -0.95 4.61 4.72 96 -1.04 5.06 120 -1.10 5.54 144 -1.11 5.86 168 -1.12 6.29 192 -1.18 6.69 216 -1.15 7.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.98 -1.15 5.17 5.37 48 -1.50 -1.72 6.21 6.47 72 -1.84 -2.06 7.05 7.33 96 -2.23 7.92 120 -2.35 8.27 144 -2.41 8.72 168 -2.33 9.21 192 -2.25 9.74 216 -2.16 10.08 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.85 11.97 11.75 0.98 0.97 48 -0.57 -1.67 16.25 16.01 0.97 0.97 72 -0.28 -1.66 21.83 21.73 0.96 0.96 96 -2.44 29.27 0.93 120 -3.15 37.22 0.90 144 -4.71 46.12 0.87 168 -5.04 55.21 0.83 192 -7.49 63.01 0.80 216 -8.37 70.70 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 389 12 UTC = 385 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.05 -3.64 13.61 13.40 0.98 0.98 48 -4.48 -5.74 20.38 20.35 0.98 0.98 72 -5.40 -6.83 29.64 29.18 0.97 0.97 96 -8.31 40.72 0.94 120 -10.46 54.05 0.91 144 -12.76 66.39 0.88 168 -14.81 80.36 0.84 192 -17.89 92.79 0.80 216 -20.74 101.69 0.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.42 -4.66 17.95 17.57 0.98 0.98 48 -5.91 -8.11 25.69 26.08 0.98 0.98 72 -8.48 -10.69 37.95 37.38 0.97 0.97 96 -13.38 51.71 0.95 120 -15.97 69.32 0.92 144 -19.36 85.52 0.89 168 -22.26 104.93 0.85 192 -25.52 122.44 0.81 216 -27.82 135.48 0.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 404 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.42 1.68 1.74 0.91 0.91 48 -0.39 -0.48 1.92 1.98 0.93 0.93 72 -0.36 -0.46 2.23 2.27 0.93 0.93 96 -0.44 2.71 0.92 120 -0.45 3.26 0.89 144 -0.45 3.84 0.85 168 -0.52 4.43 0.81 192 -0.55 4.98 0.77 216 -0.69 5.40 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 383 12 UTC = 378 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.12 1.04 1.01 0.95 0.95 48 -0.18 -0.22 1.36 1.34 0.95 0.95 72 -0.30 -0.32 1.80 1.75 0.94 0.94 96 -0.42 2.25 0.91 120 -0.53 2.87 0.87 144 -0.62 3.34 0.83 168 -0.70 3.88 0.77 192 -0.77 4.39 0.73 216 -0.85 4.76 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 410 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.44 0.42 1.46 1.47 0.93 0.92 48 0.46 0.43 1.79 1.75 0.92 0.92 72 0.44 0.40 2.17 2.15 0.91 0.91 96 0.43 2.54 0.88 120 0.49 2.99 0.85 144 0.46 3.32 0.81 168 0.46 3.68 0.77 192 0.53 3.99 0.73 216 0.67 4.21 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 405 12 UTC = 402 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.86 4.04 4.03 48 -0.94 -1.00 4.64 4.64 72 -0.99 -1.06 5.38 5.42 96 -1.08 6.39 120 -1.11 7.28 144 -1.04 8.19 168 -1.06 9.08 192 -0.90 9.95 216 -0.82 10.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 363 12 UTC = 361 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.50 4.67 4.58 48 -0.72 -0.63 5.95 5.87 72 -0.86 -0.72 7.50 7.37 96 -0.83 9.25 120 -0.77 11.04 144 -0.86 12.49 168 -0.70 14.00 192 -0.55 15.56 216 -0.32 16.24 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 392 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.59 5.40 5.34 48 -0.77 -0.79 7.08 7.02 72 -0.97 -1.00 8.99 8.95 96 -1.16 11.30 120 -1.01 13.82 144 -1.12 15.97 168 -0.90 18.36 192 -0.69 20.47 216 -0.28 22.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 388 12 UTC = 387 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.30 8.89 10.15 0.97 0.97 48 -0.37 -0.24 12.23 13.21 0.96 0.96 72 -1.34 -0.81 16.76 17.51 0.94 0.95 96 -1.55 23.52 0.92 120 -1.26 28.23 0.89 144 -2.44 35.11 0.83 168 -3.28 41.50 0.74 192 -2.36 46.39 0.69 216 -0.83 50.99 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.89 -1.68 10.82 11.97 0.97 0.97 48 -1.57 -1.03 14.62 15.55 0.97 0.98 72 -3.28 -1.12 20.61 21.72 0.95 0.97 96 -0.97 30.19 0.94 120 0.21 39.90 0.91 144 -3.51 50.15 0.86 168 -4.52 58.30 0.78 192 -4.58 66.60 0.71 216 -2.55 72.09 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.53 -2.75 16.73 18.18 0.97 0.97 48 -6.45 -3.21 22.89 23.89 0.97 0.97 72 -10.76 -4.89 32.27 33.55 0.95 0.96 96 -5.54 46.74 0.92 120 -4.97 60.47 0.89 144 -9.29 72.86 0.85 168 -11.26 87.34 0.75 192 -13.69 98.66 0.69 216 -10.79 105.29 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.22 1.49 1.45 0.83 0.88 48 -0.02 -0.21 1.63 1.58 0.87 0.90 72 0.03 -0.18 1.84 1.79 0.87 0.89 96 -0.13 2.04 0.86 120 -0.09 2.30 0.83 144 -0.20 2.64 0.80 168 -0.30 2.86 0.76 192 -0.46 3.25 0.71 216 -0.40 3.50 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.06 0.96 1.03 0.87 0.89 48 -0.15 -0.04 1.16 1.28 0.90 0.91 72 -0.25 -0.05 1.47 1.54 0.87 0.89 96 -0.01 1.87 0.85 120 0.02 2.34 0.80 144 -0.13 2.65 0.76 168 -0.10 2.93 0.69 192 -0.12 3.23 0.63 216 -0.02 3.49 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 56 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.09 1.12 1.23 0.88 0.89 48 -0.18 -0.21 1.38 1.47 0.88 0.90 72 -0.31 -0.33 1.69 1.79 0.86 0.88 96 -0.51 2.09 0.84 120 -0.61 2.52 0.81 144 -0.57 2.87 0.73 168 -0.72 3.22 0.67 192 -0.85 3.34 0.61 216 -0.88 3.40 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 55 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.88 4.25 4.34 48 -0.60 -1.02 4.81 4.87 72 -0.71 -1.17 5.46 5.56 96 -1.33 6.11 120 -1.45 6.86 144 -1.32 7.54 168 -1.17 8.27 192 -1.18 9.09 216 -1.24 9.20 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.56 4.15 4.44 48 -0.54 -0.66 5.04 5.14 72 -0.46 -0.65 6.08 6.20 96 -0.71 7.45 120 -0.72 8.66 144 -0.62 10.13 168 -0.55 10.88 192 -0.60 12.22 216 -0.67 12.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 47 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.23 -1.20 5.52 5.59 48 -1.41 -1.30 6.85 6.82 72 -1.52 -1.29 8.60 8.66 96 -1.17 10.53 120 -1.39 12.22 144 -1.36 14.59 168 -1.23 16.31 192 -1.64 18.36 216 -1.38 19.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 47 ---------------------------------------------------------