VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY APRIL 2011 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.13 1.00 1.05 0.99 0.99 18.8 20.1 48 0.14 0.15 1.64 1.67 0.98 0.98 28.0 29.5 72 0.10 0.11 2.37 2.45 0.96 0.96 36.2 38.1 96 0.03 3.43 0.91 47.3 120 -0.07 4.71 0.84 56.6 144 -0.16 5.96 0.75 65.0 168 -0.22 6.95 0.65 71.4 192 -0.24 7.69 0.57 76.1 216 -0.29 8.31 0.49 79.9 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -1.02 7.43 7.40 1.00 1.00 10.7 10.8 48 -1.37 -1.48 14.42 14.63 0.99 0.99 18.8 19.2 72 -2.19 -2.28 23.30 23.71 0.97 0.97 26.7 27.2 96 -3.30 34.88 0.94 35.3 120 -4.36 48.82 0.89 43.1 144 -5.23 64.10 0.81 50.4 168 -5.87 75.87 0.73 56.3 192 -6.56 85.36 0.65 60.9 216 -7.51 93.85 0.57 64.6 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.60 -1.81 9.71 9.81 1.00 1.00 8.6 8.7 48 -3.15 -3.38 18.75 19.00 0.99 0.99 14.6 14.8 72 -5.32 -5.64 29.69 30.84 0.98 0.98 20.7 21.2 96 -7.88 44.83 0.95 28.0 120 -9.90 61.99 0.91 34.9 144 -11.74 82.34 0.83 42.2 168 -13.48 99.90 0.75 48.1 192 -14.95 113.18 0.67 52.9 216 -16.54 124.24 0.60 56.3 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.03 0.51 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 -0.07 -0.07 0.91 0.94 0.98 0.97 72 -0.13 -0.13 1.34 1.39 0.95 0.94 96 -0.18 1.87 0.90 120 -0.23 2.39 0.83 144 -0.26 2.96 0.74 168 -0.30 3.46 0.64 192 -0.34 3.84 0.56 216 -0.38 4.16 0.48 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.67 0.66 0.99 0.99 48 -0.05 -0.06 1.08 1.11 0.96 0.96 72 -0.09 -0.11 1.50 1.53 0.93 0.92 96 -0.15 2.00 0.86 120 -0.18 2.45 0.79 144 -0.22 2.90 0.70 168 -0.28 3.25 0.63 192 -0.33 3.58 0.54 216 -0.36 3.84 0.48 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.02 2.40 2.43 48 -0.11 -0.07 4.15 4.22 72 -0.15 -0.15 5.87 5.96 96 -0.16 7.83 120 -0.16 9.72 144 -0.17 11.52 168 -0.21 12.93 192 -0.23 14.11 216 -0.16 15.16 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.12 3.52 3.52 48 -0.27 -0.25 5.65 5.67 72 -0.32 -0.31 7.70 7.81 96 -0.35 10.24 120 -0.33 12.88 144 -0.35 15.64 168 -0.37 17.96 192 -0.39 19.86 216 -0.35 21.27 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.77 3.17 3.13 0.96 0.97 28.4 27.9 48 -0.79 -0.79 4.55 4.29 0.91 0.93 37.6 36.2 72 -0.53 -0.55 5.36 5.36 0.88 0.90 42.4 40.7 96 -0.15 6.07 0.87 44.3 120 0.52 6.97 0.83 47.4 144 1.13 8.07 0.78 50.2 168 1.52 9.26 0.73 52.9 192 1.98 10.44 0.68 55.3 216 2.58 11.25 0.65 57.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.64 0.35 4.82 4.97 0.99 0.99 20.7 20.8 48 0.32 0.17 7.22 7.90 0.97 0.97 28.7 29.2 72 -0.13 -0.32 9.58 10.19 0.95 0.94 34.3 34.9 96 -0.98 12.34 0.91 39.5 120 -1.77 14.35 0.88 43.1 144 -2.68 16.65 0.84 46.5 168 -3.83 18.74 0.80 49.3 192 -4.97 21.08 0.75 52.9 216 -6.07 23.41 0.70 56.0 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.40 0.40 0.96 0.96 48 0.07 0.05 0.65 0.64 0.89 0.90 72 0.08 0.06 0.79 0.80 0.84 0.85 96 0.04 0.90 0.81 120 0.01 1.00 0.77 144 -0.03 1.08 0.73 168 -0.06 1.17 0.68 192 -0.08 1.25 0.63 216 -0.09 1.33 0.58 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.38 0.37 0.95 0.96 48 0.02 0.00 0.55 0.54 0.89 0.90 72 0.03 0.00 0.66 0.66 0.84 0.85 96 -0.03 0.74 0.80 120 -0.07 0.82 0.75 144 -0.10 0.90 0.70 168 -0.14 0.95 0.65 192 -0.20 1.01 0.61 216 -0.26 1.07 0.56 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.10 1.62 1.57 48 -0.16 -0.14 2.34 2.29 72 -0.22 -0.19 2.77 2.72 96 -0.23 3.04 120 -0.25 3.35 144 -0.24 3.65 168 -0.23 3.96 192 -0.22 4.24 216 -0.19 4.47 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.46 3.32 3.38 48 -0.72 -0.78 4.87 4.95 72 -0.88 -0.96 6.07 6.12 96 -1.11 7.08 120 -1.23 7.89 144 -1.33 8.66 168 -1.36 9.33 192 -1.42 10.01 216 -1.48 10.62 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 1.09 1.06 0.99 0.99 14.8 14.6 48 0.01 0.01 2.05 2.02 0.97 0.97 25.3 25.0 72 0.01 0.02 3.14 3.19 0.94 0.94 34.4 34.7 96 0.03 4.54 0.87 43.5 120 0.03 5.95 0.78 51.5 144 0.05 7.36 0.68 58.5 168 0.03 8.58 0.56 64.5 192 -0.02 9.67 0.43 69.7 216 -0.07 10.51 0.31 73.1 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.33 9.45 9.27 1.00 1.00 11.0 11.0 48 -0.57 -0.67 18.97 18.95 0.98 0.98 20.0 20.0 72 -0.95 -1.03 30.41 30.78 0.96 0.96 28.3 28.6 96 -1.36 44.75 0.91 36.7 120 -1.81 60.42 0.84 44.6 144 -1.73 78.18 0.73 52.1 168 -1.83 94.28 0.61 58.6 192 -2.36 107.56 0.49 63.6 216 -2.77 119.95 0.35 68.1 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.21 12.03 11.93 1.00 1.00 9.3 9.3 48 -0.61 -0.81 23.83 24.23 0.99 0.99 16.4 16.6 72 -1.52 -1.66 38.50 39.38 0.96 0.96 23.7 24.0 96 -2.75 57.33 0.92 31.4 120 -3.69 79.52 0.84 39.2 144 -4.09 104.80 0.73 46.6 168 -4.48 126.80 0.61 53.0 192 -5.31 143.29 0.49 57.8 216 -5.42 160.96 0.36 62.4 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 0.57 0.57 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.04 1.06 1.08 0.96 0.96 72 -0.05 -0.05 1.56 1.60 0.91 0.91 96 -0.08 2.14 0.84 120 -0.10 2.71 0.74 144 -0.11 3.29 0.62 168 -0.11 3.80 0.49 192 -0.13 4.15 0.39 216 -0.13 4.53 0.28 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 0.64 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 0.01 -0.01 1.15 1.15 0.93 0.93 72 -0.02 -0.04 1.65 1.68 0.86 0.85 96 -0.08 2.17 0.75 120 -0.11 2.60 0.64 144 -0.13 2.98 0.52 168 -0.17 3.34 0.41 192 -0.19 3.59 0.32 216 -0.15 3.82 0.23 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.08 2.53 2.53 48 -0.16 -0.18 4.68 4.70 72 -0.22 -0.24 6.70 6.82 96 -0.29 8.83 120 -0.30 10.95 144 -0.26 13.12 168 -0.22 15.04 192 -0.22 16.51 216 -0.22 17.85 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.14 3.57 3.57 48 -0.24 -0.27 6.30 6.35 72 -0.37 -0.35 9.07 9.20 96 -0.42 12.14 120 -0.43 15.39 144 -0.45 18.70 168 -0.42 21.59 192 -0.42 23.73 216 -0.33 25.90 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.13 -0.97 9.88 9.18 0.98 0.98 48 -2.98 -2.49 14.08 13.59 0.98 0.98 72 -2.06 -3.49 18.92 20.48 0.96 0.95 96 -3.19 28.75 0.91 120 -1.95 37.31 0.86 144 -1.25 43.68 0.83 168 -4.29 50.07 0.75 192 -3.97 59.41 0.70 216 -3.89 59.89 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.17 -2.85 12.00 10.72 0.99 0.99 48 -5.22 -4.53 18.46 17.62 0.98 0.98 72 -4.83 -5.41 25.03 27.09 0.97 0.96 96 -4.40 37.72 0.93 120 -1.38 48.25 0.89 144 0.37 59.73 0.86 168 -1.56 70.37 0.82 192 -1.65 87.43 0.76 216 -3.09 92.78 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -0.08 15.17 14.26 0.99 0.99 48 -3.08 -2.84 24.72 23.31 0.98 0.99 72 -4.70 -5.31 35.18 37.21 0.97 0.97 96 -4.88 53.67 0.94 120 -1.24 69.67 0.90 144 2.05 85.89 0.87 168 0.99 101.25 0.83 192 2.04 124.09 0.76 216 1.40 135.59 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.49 1.70 1.79 0.92 0.93 48 -0.37 -0.46 1.87 2.01 0.94 0.95 72 -0.26 -0.39 2.19 2.37 0.93 0.93 96 -0.25 2.87 0.89 120 -0.13 3.50 0.84 144 -0.09 3.96 0.82 168 -0.14 4.48 0.76 192 -0.15 4.96 0.73 216 -0.33 5.31 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.16 0.99 1.00 0.96 0.96 48 0.13 0.15 1.30 1.32 0.96 0.96 72 0.05 0.15 1.64 1.79 0.94 0.93 96 0.18 2.35 0.89 120 0.27 2.95 0.84 144 0.33 3.37 0.82 168 0.41 3.83 0.76 192 0.37 4.38 0.71 216 0.36 4.77 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.50 0.51 1.29 1.32 0.93 0.93 48 0.43 0.45 1.52 1.61 0.93 0.93 72 0.28 0.29 1.78 1.93 0.90 0.89 96 0.10 2.32 0.84 120 0.03 2.60 0.82 144 0.11 2.86 0.78 168 0.16 3.17 0.73 192 0.18 3.54 0.67 216 0.28 3.83 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -1.08 4.29 4.65 48 -0.46 -1.06 4.82 5.41 72 -0.54 -1.07 5.66 6.45 96 -0.99 7.96 120 -0.95 9.01 144 -1.12 9.71 168 -1.08 10.82 192 -1.05 11.84 216 -1.45 12.36 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.56 4.71 4.82 48 -0.63 -0.69 5.89 5.91 72 -0.78 -0.74 7.06 7.53 96 -0.80 9.16 120 -0.91 10.74 144 -1.03 12.24 168 -1.10 14.18 192 -1.62 16.41 216 -1.53 17.09 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.52 5.94 5.93 48 -0.68 -0.76 7.64 7.63 72 -1.09 -1.03 9.48 9.63 96 -1.24 12.12 120 -1.04 14.66 144 -1.04 17.90 168 -0.96 20.83 192 -1.10 24.09 216 -1.49 24.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.17 -4.66 9.56 9.11 0.96 0.96 48 -5.23 -6.69 12.14 12.92 0.97 0.97 72 -5.77 -7.17 17.40 16.99 0.95 0.95 96 -7.43 23.62 0.91 120 -6.51 32.41 0.85 144 -6.51 41.71 0.80 168 -9.99 50.12 0.70 192 -16.12 59.13 0.63 216 -19.61 65.96 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.13 -7.69 14.32 12.29 0.97 0.97 48 -10.59 -10.88 18.39 18.14 0.98 0.98 72 -10.89 -11.68 25.87 24.53 0.97 0.97 96 -12.19 36.26 0.93 120 -12.83 49.41 0.87 144 -12.72 64.25 0.81 168 -15.94 77.72 0.72 192 -24.66 96.61 0.62 216 -29.75 107.15 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.98 -8.51 18.26 15.60 0.98 0.97 48 -12.32 -12.09 23.64 23.48 0.98 0.98 72 -12.68 -14.09 33.87 32.38 0.97 0.97 96 -16.21 48.66 0.93 120 -18.14 64.21 0.88 144 -17.22 83.77 0.81 168 -21.29 102.25 0.74 192 -32.28 130.70 0.62 216 -39.83 142.20 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.45 1.55 1.32 0.87 0.87 48 -0.93 -0.63 1.72 1.58 0.91 0.91 72 -0.89 -0.62 1.86 1.76 0.92 0.91 96 -0.59 2.04 0.89 120 -0.60 2.49 0.85 144 -0.50 3.00 0.80 168 -0.46 3.44 0.74 192 -0.55 4.00 0.63 216 -0.70 4.61 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.05 0.76 0.73 0.92 0.92 48 -0.11 -0.07 1.02 0.98 0.93 0.93 72 -0.08 -0.13 1.33 1.29 0.92 0.91 96 -0.16 1.77 0.85 120 -0.34 2.10 0.81 144 -0.34 2.58 0.72 168 -0.42 2.98 0.68 192 -0.66 3.58 0.57 216 -0.74 3.85 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.46 1.16 1.13 0.89 0.89 48 0.51 0.53 1.51 1.46 0.88 0.88 72 0.47 0.50 1.79 1.80 0.84 0.85 96 0.40 2.20 0.76 120 0.51 2.50 0.69 144 0.41 2.89 0.61 168 0.50 3.14 0.57 192 0.52 3.34 0.55 216 0.42 3.54 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.44 3.80 3.84 48 -0.86 -0.59 4.31 4.30 72 -0.84 -0.66 4.96 4.92 96 -0.61 5.70 120 -0.55 6.65 144 -0.42 7.93 168 -0.21 8.57 192 -0.01 9.65 216 -0.13 10.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.44 4.13 4.05 48 -0.44 -0.43 5.20 5.29 72 -0.57 -0.52 6.70 6.65 96 -0.66 8.28 120 -0.35 10.49 144 -0.18 12.50 168 0.41 14.00 192 0.89 16.14 216 0.72 17.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.41 4.96 4.75 48 -0.47 -0.53 6.65 6.71 72 -0.86 -0.63 9.24 8.77 96 -0.85 11.47 120 -0.51 14.31 144 -0.22 17.83 168 0.28 19.61 192 0.97 23.19 216 0.99 24.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.72 2.34 12.29 10.78 0.97 0.97 48 3.73 3.25 14.78 12.96 0.97 0.97 72 3.24 4.00 17.25 16.73 0.96 0.96 96 4.53 20.80 0.93 120 4.99 27.50 0.88 144 4.69 36.60 0.82 168 6.36 43.70 0.76 192 6.98 47.51 0.73 216 4.85 49.83 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 117 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.04 -2.69 12.30 12.21 0.98 0.98 48 -3.62 -3.74 15.84 15.99 0.98 0.98 72 -5.40 -4.38 22.00 22.55 0.97 0.96 96 -4.95 29.71 0.93 120 -4.10 38.15 0.90 144 -2.68 49.28 0.85 168 -0.54 57.32 0.82 192 0.39 63.88 0.78 216 -1.02 70.50 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.74 -6.13 19.66 20.18 0.98 0.98 48 -9.86 -8.42 24.81 25.91 0.98 0.98 72 -13.60 -11.08 33.42 35.23 0.97 0.97 96 -13.77 45.24 0.95 120 -14.62 56.58 0.91 144 -13.76 73.47 0.86 168 -12.54 84.61 0.83 192 -11.61 93.96 0.81 216 -11.78 104.86 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 130 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.22 -1.40 2.38 2.48 0.92 0.92 48 -1.38 -1.61 2.62 2.76 0.94 0.93 72 -1.45 -1.68 2.86 3.00 0.92 0.92 96 -1.68 3.21 0.88 120 -1.54 3.43 0.85 144 -1.32 3.86 0.78 168 -1.12 4.30 0.74 192 -1.02 4.66 0.70 216 -0.97 4.99 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 117 12 UTC = 116 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.12 1.03 1.00 0.94 0.94 48 -0.29 -0.20 1.26 1.23 0.95 0.96 72 -0.39 -0.29 1.56 1.54 0.95 0.95 96 -0.41 1.97 0.91 120 -0.46 2.35 0.87 144 -0.44 2.90 0.79 168 -0.49 3.20 0.76 192 -0.52 3.41 0.76 216 -0.47 3.72 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.25 1.23 1.29 0.91 0.90 48 0.19 0.27 1.47 1.56 0.91 0.90 72 0.21 0.29 1.76 1.87 0.89 0.88 96 0.31 2.25 0.84 120 0.28 2.58 0.80 144 0.21 2.91 0.77 168 0.12 3.14 0.74 192 0.10 3.36 0.71 216 0.01 3.52 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.66 4.11 3.93 48 -0.89 -0.73 4.54 4.36 72 -1.03 -0.84 5.14 5.00 96 -1.04 5.69 120 -1.08 6.65 144 -1.18 7.68 168 -1.30 8.36 192 -1.34 9.19 216 -1.36 9.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 115 12 UTC = 112 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.43 4.25 4.41 48 -0.66 -0.42 5.21 5.43 72 -0.74 -0.54 6.46 6.55 96 -0.64 7.75 120 -0.73 9.26 144 -0.99 10.65 168 -1.13 11.43 192 -1.33 11.89 216 -1.44 12.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 131 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.65 5.64 5.61 48 -0.89 -0.99 7.06 7.03 72 -0.99 -1.09 8.62 8.68 96 -1.26 10.42 120 -1.44 12.32 144 -1.68 14.84 168 -1.56 16.57 192 -1.60 17.46 216 -1.62 18.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 128 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.89 -2.03 6.96 6.80 0.97 0.98 48 -1.32 -0.79 9.07 10.16 0.97 0.98 72 -2.55 -0.92 12.01 13.58 0.97 0.97 96 -3.57 20.77 0.96 120 -6.29 28.33 0.94 144 -7.12 37.15 0.87 168 -5.65 44.72 0.79 192 -3.89 49.97 0.67 216 -3.03 55.76 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.59 -6.39 9.78 10.87 0.97 0.98 48 -4.04 -5.50 12.59 14.49 0.98 0.98 72 -5.56 -5.79 17.81 21.31 0.97 0.97 96 -9.46 31.23 0.96 120 -12.96 41.06 0.94 144 -14.65 55.99 0.90 168 -11.76 70.03 0.78 192 -9.64 77.12 0.70 216 -4.72 81.31 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.58 -6.85 13.69 16.09 0.97 0.97 48 -4.03 -6.32 19.46 22.75 0.98 0.96 72 -5.72 -7.07 27.19 30.77 0.97 0.96 96 -12.09 44.80 0.96 120 -14.26 56.96 0.93 144 -17.18 78.61 0.88 168 -12.52 94.10 0.78 192 -11.22 108.39 0.70 216 -2.26 113.85 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.16 1.01 1.02 0.87 0.87 48 -0.02 -0.15 1.17 1.19 0.90 0.91 72 0.03 -0.05 1.39 1.48 0.90 0.89 96 -0.06 1.79 0.90 120 -0.14 2.04 0.87 144 -0.14 2.43 0.80 168 -0.08 2.92 0.73 192 -0.03 3.38 0.56 216 0.14 3.59 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.08 0.84 0.88 0.88 0.90 48 -0.08 -0.14 1.02 1.12 0.88 0.89 72 -0.09 -0.18 1.25 1.37 0.87 0.90 96 -0.17 1.57 0.86 120 -0.12 1.87 0.85 144 -0.28 2.42 0.74 168 -0.08 2.74 0.70 192 -0.07 2.96 0.64 216 0.19 3.16 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.28 1.03 0.97 0.86 0.88 48 0.40 0.32 1.27 1.24 0.85 0.87 72 0.39 0.30 1.48 1.45 0.84 0.84 96 0.30 1.76 0.82 120 0.28 2.03 0.79 144 0.43 2.35 0.72 168 0.26 2.53 0.68 192 0.25 2.68 0.66 216 0.33 2.98 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.27 3.53 3.35 48 -0.32 -0.39 3.94 3.84 72 -0.48 -0.56 4.48 4.44 96 -0.74 5.02 120 -0.94 5.95 144 -0.97 6.83 168 -0.75 8.14 192 -0.47 9.07 216 -0.33 9.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 36 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.61 4.09 4.15 48 -0.59 -0.85 4.76 5.11 72 -0.67 -1.02 5.86 6.05 96 -0.99 7.16 120 -0.80 8.92 144 -0.68 9.93 168 -0.76 11.98 192 -0.64 13.56 216 -0.61 13.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.98 5.13 5.36 48 -0.77 -1.12 6.72 7.17 72 -1.04 -1.31 8.68 8.81 96 -1.34 10.97 120 -0.69 13.26 144 -0.85 15.12 168 -0.83 18.38 192 -0.90 20.47 216 -1.40 20.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.32 -1.80 8.94 8.48 0.68 0.70 48 -3.32 -2.00 9.33 8.96 0.77 0.79 72 -3.51 -1.89 9.77 9.27 0.76 0.77 96 -1.37 9.43 0.75 120 -0.47 10.01 0.72 144 -0.08 10.46 0.71 168 0.11 11.45 0.65 192 0.60 12.04 0.63 216 1.22 12.80 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.92 -3.84 11.12 11.26 0.63 0.58 48 -4.84 -4.05 11.45 11.72 0.76 0.71 72 -5.69 -4.39 12.09 12.12 0.77 0.75 96 -4.69 12.58 0.74 120 -4.64 12.90 0.75 144 -4.98 13.73 0.72 168 -5.41 14.65 0.68 192 -5.57 15.51 0.66 216 -5.47 16.66 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 55 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.69 -7.27 14.99 16.33 0.63 0.56 48 -7.39 -8.50 16.12 17.72 0.75 0.69 72 -8.25 -9.23 17.52 18.93 0.77 0.74 96 -9.69 20.02 0.75 120 -10.00 20.92 0.76 144 -10.73 22.52 0.74 168 -12.05 24.30 0.71 192 -13.07 25.79 0.70 216 -14.12 28.18 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.08 0.95 1.01 0.46 0.47 48 0.03 -0.02 0.99 1.06 0.58 0.58 72 0.07 0.01 1.01 1.10 0.63 0.61 96 0.00 1.13 0.60 120 -0.04 1.17 0.61 144 -0.07 1.20 0.60 168 -0.08 1.24 0.58 192 -0.09 1.30 0.55 216 -0.09 1.34 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.18 0.81 0.83 0.52 0.53 48 -0.19 -0.23 0.88 0.89 0.62 0.63 72 -0.23 -0.28 0.93 0.95 0.66 0.66 96 -0.31 1.00 0.66 120 -0.33 1.06 0.65 144 -0.35 1.09 0.67 168 -0.37 1.16 0.67 192 -0.39 1.19 0.66 216 -0.44 1.25 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 56 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.08 0.75 0.65 0.47 0.52 48 0.22 0.06 0.82 0.72 0.54 0.59 72 0.23 0.08 0.88 0.80 0.58 0.57 96 0.05 0.85 0.58 120 0.02 0.91 0.57 144 -0.02 0.95 0.53 168 -0.09 0.99 0.51 192 -0.14 1.02 0.49 216 -0.21 1.07 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 56 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.64 3.43 3.37 48 -0.63 -0.60 3.78 3.66 72 -0.68 -0.56 3.99 3.84 96 -0.51 4.02 120 -0.57 4.25 144 -0.60 4.53 168 -0.67 4.85 192 -0.65 5.06 216 -0.60 5.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 57 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -1.00 3.83 3.72 48 -1.25 -1.18 4.17 4.04 72 -1.26 -1.26 4.41 4.28 96 -1.30 4.56 120 -1.33 4.80 144 -1.33 5.14 168 -1.26 5.54 192 -1.13 5.96 216 -1.01 6.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.01 -1.02 4.87 4.75 48 -1.34 -1.37 5.65 5.61 72 -1.60 -1.67 6.33 6.34 96 -1.89 7.10 120 -2.13 7.77 144 -2.33 8.21 168 -2.35 8.89 192 -2.35 9.38 216 -2.24 9.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.13 -1.08 10.67 10.19 0.98 0.98 48 -0.72 -1.32 14.04 13.76 0.98 0.98 72 -0.79 -1.38 18.69 19.01 0.96 0.96 96 -1.35 25.77 0.93 120 -1.42 34.97 0.89 144 -2.20 45.59 0.84 168 -3.31 53.17 0.79 192 -4.23 60.22 0.74 216 -4.69 64.23 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 390 12 UTC = 384 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.76 -3.97 12.89 12.31 0.98 0.98 48 -5.21 -5.30 17.87 17.97 0.98 0.98 72 -5.97 -6.04 25.36 25.78 0.97 0.97 96 -6.53 35.92 0.94 120 -6.51 48.14 0.91 144 -6.85 63.58 0.87 168 -7.27 75.53 0.82 192 -8.64 87.85 0.77 216 -9.36 95.37 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 408 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.10 -5.54 18.66 18.52 0.98 0.98 48 -8.71 -8.12 25.04 25.48 0.98 0.98 72 -11.10 -10.55 34.99 36.16 0.97 0.97 96 -12.66 49.86 0.95 120 -13.76 65.73 0.92 144 -14.00 85.54 0.88 168 -14.85 102.19 0.84 192 -16.54 119.18 0.79 216 -17.45 130.39 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 408 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.71 1.84 1.90 0.92 0.92 48 -0.82 -0.83 2.06 2.14 0.94 0.94 72 -0.82 -0.84 2.30 2.40 0.93 0.92 96 -0.82 2.73 0.90 120 -0.76 3.16 0.87 144 -0.69 3.66 0.82 168 -0.62 4.13 0.78 192 -0.62 4.61 0.73 216 -0.64 4.96 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 387 12 UTC = 380 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.05 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 48 -0.16 -0.11 1.23 1.24 0.96 0.96 72 -0.22 -0.17 1.58 1.62 0.94 0.94 96 -0.24 2.10 0.91 120 -0.28 2.57 0.87 144 -0.27 3.09 0.82 168 -0.29 3.52 0.78 192 -0.35 3.97 0.74 216 -0.35 4.28 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 413 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.32 1.23 1.26 0.93 0.92 48 0.27 0.30 1.52 1.56 0.93 0.92 72 0.21 0.24 1.84 1.91 0.91 0.90 96 0.16 2.34 0.86 120 0.14 2.69 0.83 144 0.11 3.08 0.79 168 0.08 3.40 0.75 192 0.08 3.66 0.72 216 0.02 3.91 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 410 12 UTC = 402 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.71 4.02 4.07 48 -0.78 -0.79 4.52 4.65 72 -0.84 -0.85 5.22 5.41 96 -0.90 6.42 120 -0.91 7.44 144 -0.93 8.45 168 -0.91 9.27 192 -0.83 10.16 216 -0.97 10.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 362 12 UTC = 358 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.54 4.35 4.44 48 -0.61 -0.60 5.42 5.58 72 -0.71 -0.69 6.79 6.97 96 -0.73 8.53 120 -0.78 10.26 144 -0.81 12.00 168 -0.82 13.34 192 -0.86 14.72 216 -0.85 15.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 393 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.52 5.35 5.32 48 -0.68 -0.72 6.91 6.87 72 -0.88 -0.82 8.83 8.72 96 -0.94 11.01 120 -0.94 13.40 144 -0.97 16.39 168 -0.80 18.59 192 -0.79 20.75 216 -0.76 21.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 390 12 UTC = 384 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.15 -0.95 8.70 10.61 0.98 0.98 48 -0.92 -1.03 12.29 14.59 0.98 0.98 72 -1.65 -0.46 17.30 19.28 0.96 0.96 96 0.20 25.90 0.94 120 0.36 32.24 0.91 144 -0.90 41.66 0.84 168 -0.62 49.90 0.76 192 2.90 58.30 0.65 216 3.03 61.84 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.37 -5.26 11.65 12.68 0.98 0.98 48 -4.04 -5.38 16.11 17.96 0.98 0.98 72 -4.90 -4.88 23.34 25.66 0.96 0.96 96 -4.14 34.42 0.96 120 -3.40 46.13 0.92 144 -5.38 61.62 0.86 168 -3.59 73.85 0.77 192 0.30 84.61 0.68 216 1.45 92.61 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.47 -6.27 16.45 19.13 0.98 0.97 48 -5.50 -7.03 23.44 27.89 0.98 0.97 72 -6.84 -7.18 33.11 37.44 0.97 0.96 96 -7.54 49.24 0.95 120 -7.01 65.11 0.92 144 -9.06 87.40 0.86 168 -5.91 104.13 0.79 192 -0.33 118.04 0.72 216 -0.42 132.90 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.45 1.46 1.51 0.88 0.87 48 -0.43 -0.50 1.66 1.71 0.91 0.90 72 -0.41 -0.46 1.85 1.93 0.90 0.89 96 -0.45 2.22 0.88 120 -0.40 2.57 0.85 144 -0.47 2.94 0.82 168 -0.48 3.39 0.74 192 -0.40 3.90 0.65 216 -0.49 4.29 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.07 0.94 0.99 0.90 0.92 48 -0.07 -0.08 1.14 1.28 0.92 0.93 72 -0.11 -0.09 1.45 1.61 0.90 0.90 96 -0.09 1.87 0.90 120 -0.07 2.36 0.84 144 -0.14 2.86 0.77 168 -0.04 3.21 0.71 192 0.11 3.57 0.67 216 0.10 3.99 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.31 1.17 1.21 0.88 0.89 48 0.29 0.31 1.43 1.48 0.87 0.89 72 0.31 0.30 1.67 1.88 0.87 0.84 96 0.16 2.16 0.81 120 0.12 2.53 0.74 144 0.16 2.87 0.68 168 0.05 3.04 0.66 192 -0.03 3.16 0.62 216 0.01 3.44 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.58 4.25 4.14 48 -0.52 -0.69 4.64 4.73 72 -0.61 -0.75 5.36 5.56 96 -0.89 6.33 120 -1.08 7.16 144 -0.89 8.12 168 -0.76 9.13 192 -0.71 9.74 216 -0.57 10.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.59 4.45 4.56 48 -0.54 -0.70 5.27 5.58 72 -0.52 -0.76 6.55 6.92 96 -0.76 8.10 120 -0.76 9.86 144 -0.51 11.15 168 -0.52 13.15 192 -0.51 14.21 216 -0.47 15.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.61 5.56 5.91 48 -0.57 -0.76 7.31 7.56 72 -0.74 -0.95 9.46 9.59 96 -0.87 11.88 120 -0.38 14.16 144 -0.26 16.53 168 -0.20 19.27 192 -0.50 21.42 216 -0.36 22.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 42 ---------------------------------------------------------