VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JUNE 2011 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 0.85 0.87 0.99 0.99 20.6 21.6 48 0.04 0.02 1.36 1.38 0.97 0.97 30.4 31.5 72 0.07 0.05 1.96 1.99 0.94 0.94 38.8 40.0 96 0.11 2.72 0.89 48.5 120 0.17 3.54 0.82 56.6 144 0.26 4.34 0.72 63.3 168 0.36 5.00 0.62 68.1 192 0.45 5.60 0.53 72.1 216 0.49 6.03 0.45 75.7 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.17 -1.19 6.85 7.13 1.00 1.00 13.7 13.9 48 -1.32 -1.49 12.96 13.29 0.98 0.98 23.4 23.7 72 -1.25 -1.48 20.70 20.98 0.96 0.95 32.9 33.2 96 -1.23 30.65 0.90 42.9 120 -1.08 40.96 0.82 51.9 144 -0.73 50.45 0.73 58.5 168 -0.45 59.19 0.62 64.0 192 -0.40 68.16 0.50 69.3 216 -0.91 75.41 0.39 73.5 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.78 -1.90 9.53 9.95 1.00 1.00 12.3 12.5 48 -2.96 -3.30 18.35 18.91 0.98 0.98 21.1 21.4 72 -4.26 -4.72 29.29 29.78 0.96 0.95 30.0 30.4 96 -6.03 43.05 0.90 39.2 120 -7.42 57.20 0.83 47.6 144 -8.63 69.99 0.74 53.8 168 -10.09 82.46 0.64 59.2 192 -11.80 94.65 0.53 64.2 216 -14.26 105.19 0.42 68.1 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.49 0.48 0.98 0.98 48 0.00 -0.01 0.83 0.83 0.95 0.95 72 -0.04 -0.05 1.19 1.19 0.90 0.90 96 -0.10 1.57 0.83 120 -0.16 1.96 0.73 144 -0.22 2.27 0.64 168 -0.30 2.58 0.53 192 -0.39 2.85 0.43 216 -0.47 3.07 0.34 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.67 0.67 0.98 0.98 48 -0.06 -0.07 1.12 1.12 0.94 0.94 72 -0.10 -0.11 1.59 1.59 0.87 0.87 96 -0.16 2.05 0.78 120 -0.20 2.48 0.68 144 -0.25 2.79 0.59 168 -0.30 3.07 0.50 192 -0.35 3.29 0.43 216 -0.42 3.48 0.36 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.10 2.22 2.24 48 -0.25 -0.21 3.76 3.79 72 -0.35 -0.32 5.27 5.28 96 -0.41 6.86 120 -0.52 8.39 144 -0.58 9.56 168 -0.61 10.58 192 -0.63 11.58 216 -0.65 12.33 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.21 3.54 3.59 48 -0.32 -0.36 5.86 5.96 72 -0.46 -0.51 8.22 8.32 96 -0.58 10.68 120 -0.62 13.03 144 -0.71 14.82 168 -0.71 16.44 192 -0.80 17.95 216 -0.84 19.09 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.69 3.13 3.16 0.96 0.97 24.0 24.4 48 -0.89 -0.88 4.47 4.62 0.93 0.93 32.1 32.1 72 -0.96 -1.00 5.54 5.80 0.89 0.89 36.7 36.6 96 -1.17 6.88 0.84 39.9 120 -1.29 7.87 0.79 42.9 144 -1.31 8.87 0.74 45.6 168 -1.19 9.75 0.68 48.3 192 -0.90 10.48 0.63 50.2 216 -0.77 11.08 0.59 51.8 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.28 4.94 5.11 0.98 0.98 21.1 21.3 48 -1.45 -1.90 8.05 8.53 0.95 0.95 29.7 29.7 72 -3.03 -3.50 10.63 10.97 0.92 0.92 35.5 35.5 96 -5.19 13.29 0.88 39.7 120 -6.97 15.89 0.84 43.2 144 -8.59 18.66 0.78 46.4 168 -9.91 21.45 0.71 49.6 192 -10.86 23.18 0.66 52.3 216 -11.64 24.29 0.63 54.1 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 0.41 0.41 0.96 0.96 48 0.00 -0.01 0.64 0.64 0.90 0.91 72 0.00 -0.01 0.80 0.81 0.85 0.85 96 -0.02 0.95 0.80 120 -0.02 1.05 0.75 144 -0.04 1.13 0.71 168 -0.06 1.23 0.65 192 -0.09 1.31 0.61 216 -0.11 1.38 0.56 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.02 0.36 0.35 0.94 0.94 48 -0.02 -0.05 0.55 0.54 0.86 0.86 72 -0.04 -0.07 0.69 0.68 0.79 0.78 96 -0.10 0.78 0.70 120 -0.13 0.86 0.64 144 -0.16 0.92 0.58 168 -0.19 0.98 0.54 192 -0.23 1.03 0.49 216 -0.27 1.06 0.47 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.04 1.60 1.60 48 -0.17 -0.14 2.36 2.36 72 -0.28 -0.23 2.80 2.79 96 -0.33 3.12 120 -0.40 3.43 144 -0.44 3.74 168 -0.46 4.04 192 -0.45 4.26 216 -0.47 4.43 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.37 3.45 3.52 48 -0.58 -0.64 5.19 5.25 72 -0.77 -0.83 6.50 6.53 96 -1.00 7.54 120 -1.11 8.40 144 -1.15 9.11 168 -1.17 9.84 192 -1.12 10.49 216 -1.10 10.95 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.07 1.13 1.15 0.99 0.99 14.4 14.5 48 0.09 0.09 2.30 2.28 0.98 0.98 25.6 25.5 72 0.06 0.08 3.61 3.58 0.94 0.94 35.6 35.2 96 0.03 4.89 0.90 43.3 120 -0.05 6.43 0.82 51.5 144 -0.15 7.91 0.72 58.5 168 -0.30 9.21 0.61 64.5 192 -0.47 10.41 0.50 68.7 216 -0.52 11.27 0.42 71.5 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -1.05 9.97 10.12 1.00 1.00 10.8 10.8 48 -1.97 -1.95 21.41 21.36 0.98 0.98 20.2 20.1 72 -2.85 -2.76 34.92 34.83 0.96 0.96 29.0 28.8 96 -3.70 48.26 0.92 36.1 120 -4.90 64.64 0.86 43.7 144 -6.54 82.06 0.77 50.6 168 -8.44 98.98 0.66 56.5 192 -10.28 112.22 0.56 60.9 216 -11.39 121.75 0.48 63.7 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.74 12.74 12.71 1.00 1.00 8.8 8.8 48 -1.78 -1.87 26.60 26.50 0.99 0.99 15.9 15.8 72 -2.80 -2.71 43.22 42.92 0.96 0.96 23.0 23.0 96 -3.96 60.53 0.93 29.6 120 -5.81 81.52 0.87 36.5 144 -7.88 104.79 0.78 43.3 168 -10.25 128.27 0.67 49.3 192 -12.68 144.89 0.57 53.4 216 -14.63 157.40 0.50 56.1 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 0.58 0.59 0.99 0.99 48 -0.10 -0.10 1.12 1.11 0.96 0.96 72 -0.13 -0.13 1.67 1.65 0.91 0.91 96 -0.16 2.19 0.85 120 -0.21 2.74 0.76 144 -0.27 3.31 0.65 168 -0.32 3.78 0.55 192 -0.36 4.13 0.47 216 -0.40 4.41 0.39 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.06 0.65 0.66 0.98 0.98 48 0.09 0.09 1.16 1.16 0.93 0.94 72 0.13 0.10 1.66 1.65 0.87 0.87 96 0.12 2.09 0.79 120 0.12 2.54 0.69 144 0.14 2.90 0.60 168 0.15 3.23 0.50 192 0.18 3.48 0.42 216 0.13 3.66 0.36 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 2.71 2.72 48 0.00 0.01 5.20 5.15 72 0.00 0.02 7.49 7.46 96 -0.01 9.43 120 -0.04 11.60 144 -0.05 13.67 168 -0.03 15.62 192 -0.02 17.08 216 -0.05 17.97 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.01 3.63 3.66 48 -0.13 -0.11 6.57 6.48 72 -0.14 -0.17 9.49 9.41 96 -0.25 12.25 120 -0.32 15.34 144 -0.39 18.61 168 -0.40 21.71 192 -0.32 23.72 216 -0.45 24.92 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.02 -0.65 8.39 9.09 0.96 0.96 48 -1.12 -0.70 11.12 12.26 0.96 0.96 72 -1.68 -2.02 14.92 16.32 0.94 0.94 96 -3.21 21.21 0.90 120 -3.94 26.88 0.84 144 -3.21 32.93 0.78 168 -2.21 38.45 0.70 192 -0.15 43.73 0.65 216 1.98 46.64 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.59 -2.49 10.82 9.83 0.97 0.97 48 -2.29 -2.16 15.16 13.97 0.97 0.97 72 -2.06 -3.07 20.29 20.28 0.95 0.95 96 -4.79 28.50 0.93 120 -5.48 39.75 0.86 144 -3.58 47.68 0.82 168 -1.66 54.31 0.76 192 0.75 62.20 0.69 216 0.69 69.06 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.74 -1.40 15.20 14.86 0.97 0.97 48 -1.49 -1.46 22.65 21.19 0.97 0.97 72 -1.77 -3.77 30.18 29.89 0.95 0.95 96 -7.62 41.43 0.93 120 -9.28 58.24 0.87 144 -7.42 70.58 0.83 168 -6.29 81.37 0.77 192 -3.45 93.27 0.68 216 -4.56 106.02 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.66 1.64 1.80 0.87 0.87 48 -0.54 -0.67 1.82 1.94 0.90 0.90 72 -0.50 -0.68 2.07 2.22 0.89 0.89 96 -0.75 2.54 0.85 120 -0.84 2.97 0.80 144 -0.72 3.38 0.75 168 -0.67 3.67 0.70 192 -0.65 4.12 0.62 216 -0.76 4.44 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.12 0.91 0.94 0.88 0.88 48 0.16 0.16 1.12 1.15 0.90 0.89 72 0.21 0.17 1.35 1.42 0.88 0.86 96 0.11 1.67 0.83 120 0.12 2.06 0.77 144 0.17 2.28 0.74 168 0.15 2.57 0.67 192 0.16 2.74 0.62 216 0.09 3.00 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.35 0.36 1.24 1.19 0.87 0.88 48 0.32 0.33 1.47 1.42 0.88 0.88 72 0.29 0.28 1.74 1.71 0.85 0.85 96 0.22 2.00 0.80 120 0.22 2.32 0.74 144 0.14 2.48 0.72 168 0.10 2.75 0.68 192 0.03 2.90 0.63 216 -0.02 3.06 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -1.12 3.83 4.13 48 -0.69 -1.20 4.46 4.78 72 -0.75 -1.31 4.97 5.47 96 -1.36 6.14 120 -1.26 6.88 144 -1.28 7.61 168 -1.29 8.14 192 -1.46 9.05 216 -1.51 9.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.43 4.34 4.42 48 -0.76 -0.44 5.29 5.34 72 -0.63 -0.46 6.30 6.31 96 -0.32 7.39 120 -0.22 8.95 144 -0.35 9.93 168 -0.48 11.10 192 -0.58 12.09 216 -0.50 13.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.92 6.45 6.43 48 -0.60 -1.03 8.08 8.16 72 -0.62 -1.16 9.77 9.89 96 -1.17 11.83 120 -0.99 14.83 144 -1.21 16.36 168 -1.39 17.80 192 -1.41 19.92 216 -1.19 21.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.40 -4.61 10.12 8.90 0.96 0.97 48 -7.57 -7.00 12.43 11.97 0.97 0.97 72 -7.97 -8.72 16.22 16.22 0.96 0.96 96 -6.43 20.26 0.94 120 -1.06 27.47 0.90 144 2.38 33.12 0.86 168 6.84 40.24 0.84 192 12.34 47.39 0.76 216 12.27 55.93 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.05 -5.67 12.90 10.54 0.98 0.98 48 -10.27 -7.86 16.47 14.51 0.98 0.98 72 -9.87 -8.70 22.21 20.99 0.97 0.97 96 -6.80 29.18 0.95 120 -1.86 41.71 0.91 144 1.17 52.61 0.85 168 6.06 63.01 0.83 192 10.93 74.70 0.78 216 11.91 88.46 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.54 -5.41 16.19 14.14 0.98 0.98 48 -11.33 -8.16 22.26 20.19 0.98 0.98 72 -10.81 -9.09 31.97 30.37 0.97 0.97 96 -7.95 43.77 0.95 120 -4.12 61.72 0.89 144 -4.09 76.41 0.86 168 -1.50 90.81 0.81 192 1.88 108.55 0.76 216 1.16 125.33 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.13 1.27 1.12 0.90 0.90 48 -0.45 -0.20 1.46 1.33 0.93 0.93 72 -0.42 -0.15 1.68 1.57 0.92 0.92 96 -0.20 1.88 0.89 120 -0.28 2.36 0.83 144 -0.23 2.90 0.75 168 -0.10 3.38 0.70 192 -0.01 3.75 0.68 216 0.01 4.37 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.01 0.78 0.77 0.93 0.93 48 0.01 0.06 0.97 0.94 0.94 0.94 72 0.06 0.10 1.30 1.24 0.93 0.93 96 0.10 1.68 0.89 120 0.07 2.14 0.81 144 -0.05 2.49 0.76 168 -0.15 2.72 0.73 192 -0.23 3.04 0.69 216 -0.26 3.39 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.45 1.14 1.10 0.89 0.89 48 0.37 0.42 1.32 1.33 0.89 0.88 72 0.37 0.41 1.69 1.62 0.86 0.86 96 0.44 2.10 0.80 120 0.41 2.52 0.72 144 0.35 2.67 0.71 168 0.28 2.80 0.65 192 0.20 2.91 0.64 216 0.08 3.26 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.45 3.68 3.51 48 -0.70 -0.48 4.09 3.82 72 -0.65 -0.56 4.57 4.41 96 -0.41 5.15 120 -0.46 6.10 144 -0.69 6.83 168 -0.91 7.21 192 -1.22 7.81 216 -1.28 8.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.35 3.75 3.56 48 -0.44 -0.51 4.45 4.25 72 -0.47 -0.63 5.49 5.49 96 -0.73 7.07 120 -0.63 8.85 144 -0.80 10.18 168 -1.13 11.23 192 -1.53 12.58 216 -1.80 13.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.49 5.35 4.87 48 -0.82 -0.76 6.77 6.46 72 -1.01 -1.08 8.79 8.72 96 -1.24 11.58 120 -1.00 14.45 144 -1.29 15.96 168 -1.73 17.97 192 -2.31 20.20 216 -2.80 21.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -2.18 10.13 9.48 0.94 0.93 48 0.83 -0.42 12.99 11.88 0.95 0.94 72 2.04 1.73 16.75 15.65 0.93 0.93 96 3.43 20.03 0.89 120 3.97 24.80 0.84 144 3.85 29.09 0.79 168 5.16 33.58 0.70 192 5.69 36.88 0.64 216 4.63 37.54 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 121 12 UTC = 121 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.01 -3.25 12.30 12.71 0.94 0.94 48 -0.51 -0.57 15.56 16.09 0.95 0.95 72 1.19 2.20 20.39 20.88 0.94 0.93 96 3.18 26.97 0.90 120 2.61 31.91 0.86 144 1.73 37.83 0.81 168 2.51 43.16 0.76 192 2.93 48.11 0.71 216 1.89 49.69 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.87 -9.37 20.27 21.43 0.94 0.93 48 -7.15 -7.34 25.34 26.55 0.95 0.94 72 -6.25 -4.75 33.22 33.76 0.93 0.93 96 -6.09 43.20 0.90 120 -9.36 52.06 0.86 144 -12.52 60.65 0.83 168 -14.34 68.30 0.79 192 -14.83 75.55 0.76 216 -16.42 78.62 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.60 1.90 1.77 0.83 0.86 48 -0.56 -0.51 2.09 2.03 0.87 0.88 72 -0.46 -0.39 2.29 2.31 0.87 0.86 96 -0.33 2.64 0.83 120 -0.30 2.98 0.78 144 -0.30 3.25 0.73 168 -0.26 3.55 0.69 192 -0.14 3.87 0.61 216 -0.05 3.93 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 0.92 0.95 0.83 0.83 48 -0.12 -0.11 1.10 1.12 0.87 0.87 72 -0.17 -0.15 1.32 1.33 0.86 0.86 96 -0.27 1.57 0.83 120 -0.41 1.82 0.79 144 -0.51 2.03 0.76 168 -0.61 2.24 0.73 192 -0.67 2.44 0.70 216 -0.66 2.52 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 137 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.16 1.25 1.24 0.85 0.86 48 -0.08 -0.14 1.52 1.50 0.86 0.87 72 -0.06 -0.11 1.83 1.87 0.84 0.82 96 -0.16 2.19 0.77 120 -0.25 2.46 0.72 144 -0.36 2.55 0.72 168 -0.47 2.74 0.69 192 -0.50 2.87 0.69 216 -0.57 3.03 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.09 -0.77 3.95 3.90 48 -1.09 -0.77 4.54 4.40 72 -1.14 -0.73 5.22 5.11 96 -0.82 5.72 120 -0.88 6.35 144 -0.99 6.84 168 -1.09 7.42 192 -0.97 7.79 216 -1.07 7.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 114 12 UTC = 113 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.70 4.16 4.08 48 -1.02 -0.83 5.20 5.06 72 -1.18 -0.94 6.20 6.12 96 -0.94 7.27 120 -1.08 8.15 144 -1.09 9.12 168 -1.01 9.81 192 -0.96 10.11 216 -0.93 10.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.82 5.98 6.27 48 -1.14 -1.20 8.01 8.33 72 -1.30 -1.46 9.80 10.25 96 -1.51 11.91 120 -1.39 13.63 144 -1.31 14.57 168 -1.28 15.71 192 -1.32 16.57 216 -1.21 17.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 134 12 UTC = 132 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.11 -1.91 6.81 7.96 0.97 0.98 48 -1.40 0.10 9.56 10.93 0.97 0.98 72 -2.08 -0.55 12.70 15.08 0.96 0.97 96 -1.61 21.86 0.96 120 -3.72 32.70 0.92 144 -7.12 42.36 0.89 168 -10.04 50.47 0.81 192 -9.35 58.08 0.74 216 -9.61 59.91 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.09 -6.59 10.70 11.96 0.97 0.98 48 -5.91 -5.61 14.07 16.47 0.97 0.97 72 -8.06 -6.79 19.79 22.32 0.97 0.96 96 -8.43 33.22 0.93 120 -10.00 46.56 0.91 144 -12.29 59.71 0.89 168 -18.88 72.43 0.81 192 -18.13 84.40 0.74 216 -19.12 81.29 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.24 -6.87 13.93 14.71 0.98 0.98 48 -5.06 -5.58 19.68 21.28 0.98 0.97 72 -7.35 -6.48 27.56 30.94 0.97 0.97 96 -7.33 43.72 0.95 120 -8.03 59.27 0.92 144 -8.74 78.75 0.90 168 -16.09 91.35 0.85 192 -15.81 113.59 0.73 216 -14.70 111.59 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.33 1.26 1.29 0.79 0.80 48 -0.31 -0.43 1.39 1.48 0.84 0.84 72 -0.37 -0.55 1.56 1.67 0.86 0.86 96 -0.58 1.89 0.84 120 -0.51 2.18 0.79 144 -0.48 2.49 0.76 168 -0.62 2.63 0.72 192 -0.58 3.03 0.66 216 -0.73 3.10 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.15 0.87 0.84 0.90 0.90 48 -0.13 -0.23 1.04 0.99 0.91 0.93 72 -0.20 -0.24 1.27 1.36 0.90 0.88 96 -0.22 1.67 0.87 120 -0.19 2.03 0.85 144 -0.05 2.52 0.79 168 -0.28 2.75 0.71 192 -0.29 3.18 0.65 216 -0.27 3.27 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.57 0.70 1.34 1.40 0.87 0.91 48 0.66 0.77 1.63 1.65 0.86 0.87 72 0.69 0.75 1.95 1.89 0.83 0.86 96 0.79 2.34 0.83 120 0.79 2.70 0.79 144 0.86 3.01 0.67 168 1.08 3.26 0.62 192 0.97 3.69 0.56 216 1.04 3.68 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.41 3.57 3.63 48 -0.34 -0.33 4.05 4.03 72 -0.29 -0.17 4.68 4.88 96 0.00 5.56 120 0.03 6.48 144 -0.09 7.70 168 -0.11 8.90 192 -0.07 9.94 216 0.25 10.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.36 4.39 4.40 48 -0.44 -0.41 5.29 5.14 72 -0.39 -0.39 6.34 6.37 96 -0.21 7.79 120 -0.22 9.52 144 -0.64 11.09 168 -0.84 12.18 192 -0.33 14.24 216 -0.10 14.89 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.45 5.61 5.41 48 -1.03 -0.66 7.24 6.94 72 -1.25 -0.77 8.70 8.75 96 -0.92 10.66 120 -1.11 13.25 144 -1.37 15.61 168 -1.65 18.43 192 -1.33 21.09 216 -1.15 21.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.38 -3.50 8.77 8.02 0.71 0.72 48 -4.19 -4.19 9.18 9.01 0.79 0.79 72 -3.91 -4.86 9.64 9.88 0.77 0.77 96 -5.30 10.59 0.73 120 -4.93 10.94 0.73 144 -4.86 11.60 0.74 168 -5.08 12.37 0.72 192 -4.78 12.69 0.65 216 -4.79 13.03 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.54 -5.30 11.49 11.31 0.65 0.55 48 -6.52 -5.85 12.12 12.13 0.77 0.69 72 -7.09 -6.87 13.00 13.23 0.78 0.71 96 -8.12 14.32 0.68 120 -8.84 14.97 0.68 144 -9.88 16.27 0.67 168 -10.92 17.79 0.65 192 -11.02 18.12 0.60 216 -11.15 18.13 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.25 -8.02 15.64 16.66 0.63 0.56 48 -9.17 -9.66 17.36 18.66 0.74 0.68 72 -10.40 -11.19 19.15 20.50 0.75 0.71 96 -12.68 22.18 0.71 120 -14.02 23.58 0.71 144 -15.75 25.81 0.71 168 -17.57 28.16 0.69 192 -19.02 29.61 0.66 216 -20.19 30.66 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.23 1.22 1.17 0.48 0.44 48 -0.12 -0.24 1.28 1.23 0.56 0.52 72 -0.10 -0.23 1.29 1.24 0.59 0.56 96 -0.23 1.26 0.56 120 -0.28 1.29 0.53 144 -0.33 1.33 0.54 168 -0.40 1.42 0.52 192 -0.44 1.44 0.54 216 -0.43 1.47 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.07 0.91 0.97 0.54 0.49 48 -0.17 -0.12 0.98 1.04 0.57 0.54 72 -0.21 -0.15 1.04 1.10 0.58 0.52 96 -0.17 1.12 0.55 120 -0.20 1.15 0.55 144 -0.25 1.20 0.57 168 -0.27 1.26 0.58 192 -0.32 1.30 0.56 216 -0.35 1.34 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.13 0.77 0.70 0.55 0.61 48 0.24 0.09 0.83 0.78 0.62 0.67 72 0.20 0.08 0.87 0.85 0.60 0.65 96 0.07 0.89 0.62 120 0.05 0.94 0.63 144 0.01 0.98 0.66 168 -0.04 1.01 0.63 192 -0.10 1.06 0.59 216 -0.14 1.09 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.84 3.51 3.45 48 -0.84 -0.98 3.91 3.86 72 -0.98 -1.07 4.13 4.07 96 -1.12 4.18 120 -1.16 4.38 144 -1.20 4.76 168 -1.24 4.98 192 -1.35 5.12 216 -1.43 5.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.05 -0.84 4.08 4.02 48 -1.24 -1.05 4.46 4.42 72 -1.38 -1.17 4.91 4.70 96 -1.17 5.00 120 -1.10 5.30 144 -1.00 5.82 168 -0.95 6.19 192 -0.89 6.53 216 -0.94 6.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.07 -0.92 5.19 5.12 48 -1.51 -1.23 6.02 6.11 72 -1.77 -1.43 6.67 6.86 96 -1.60 7.57 120 -1.74 8.11 144 -1.69 8.60 168 -1.62 9.17 192 -1.54 9.94 216 -1.55 10.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.12 -3.02 9.86 9.69 0.96 0.96 48 -2.64 -2.96 12.75 12.55 0.97 0.96 72 -1.93 -2.42 16.86 16.56 0.95 0.95 96 -1.26 22.04 0.92 120 0.03 28.27 0.88 144 1.39 34.32 0.83 168 3.50 39.85 0.78 192 5.48 45.43 0.72 216 5.50 49.87 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 398 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.70 -3.98 12.49 12.04 0.97 0.97 48 -4.05 -3.70 16.69 16.40 0.97 0.97 72 -3.17 -2.95 22.70 22.60 0.96 0.96 96 -2.33 31.31 0.93 120 -1.55 40.84 0.89 144 -0.27 49.74 0.84 168 1.65 57.88 0.80 192 3.23 66.89 0.75 216 2.79 74.33 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 417 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.17 -6.36 18.33 18.48 0.97 0.96 48 -7.16 -6.80 24.64 24.58 0.97 0.97 72 -6.96 -6.80 33.14 33.28 0.96 0.96 96 -7.86 45.35 0.93 120 -8.69 59.00 0.89 144 -8.89 71.47 0.85 168 -8.83 83.19 0.80 192 -8.08 95.68 0.75 216 -9.87 106.27 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 417 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.57 1.66 1.64 0.87 0.87 48 -0.62 -0.58 1.86 1.86 0.91 0.91 72 -0.57 -0.54 2.11 2.13 0.90 0.89 96 -0.54 2.47 0.86 120 -0.55 2.87 0.81 144 -0.48 3.25 0.76 168 -0.42 3.58 0.72 192 -0.38 3.96 0.66 216 -0.36 4.26 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 396 12 UTC = 386 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 0.91 0.92 0.90 0.90 48 -0.02 -0.01 1.13 1.12 0.92 0.92 72 -0.03 -0.03 1.39 1.40 0.90 0.90 96 -0.09 1.73 0.86 120 -0.15 2.09 0.81 144 -0.19 2.36 0.77 168 -0.28 2.66 0.72 192 -0.33 2.89 0.68 216 -0.37 3.13 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 425 12 UTC = 414 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.17 1.27 1.26 0.89 0.89 48 0.16 0.14 1.55 1.54 0.89 0.89 72 0.15 0.13 1.90 1.91 0.87 0.86 96 0.10 2.32 0.81 120 0.06 2.68 0.76 144 -0.01 2.88 0.74 168 -0.08 3.13 0.71 192 -0.14 3.26 0.69 216 -0.19 3.48 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 421 12 UTC = 410 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.73 3.78 3.80 48 -0.86 -0.77 4.33 4.32 72 -0.90 -0.83 4.95 5.00 96 -0.88 5.76 120 -0.92 6.48 144 -1.02 7.13 168 -1.10 7.62 192 -1.14 8.15 216 -1.15 8.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 371 12 UTC = 362 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.56 4.05 4.00 48 -0.82 -0.67 5.03 4.94 72 -0.87 -0.76 6.12 6.08 96 -0.80 7.52 120 -0.84 8.86 144 -0.88 9.93 168 -0.94 10.83 192 -0.96 11.69 216 -0.96 12.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 407 12 UTC = 396 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.71 5.62 5.67 48 -0.87 -0.96 7.42 7.48 72 -0.99 -1.15 9.33 9.46 96 -1.25 11.65 120 -1.17 13.97 144 -1.20 15.39 168 -1.24 16.83 192 -1.38 18.30 216 -1.37 19.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.18 -1.14 8.49 10.65 0.98 0.98 48 -0.88 -1.27 12.73 14.66 0.97 0.98 72 -1.34 -2.40 18.08 20.43 0.96 0.96 96 -3.08 26.93 0.94 120 -1.44 35.17 0.92 144 -2.72 47.09 0.86 168 -4.49 55.40 0.82 192 -5.90 63.17 0.77 216 -6.20 65.92 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 55 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.81 -8.11 12.94 14.94 0.98 0.98 48 -7.77 -9.84 18.83 21.81 0.98 0.98 72 -9.03 -10.76 26.81 29.81 0.97 0.97 96 -12.23 40.31 0.94 120 -11.32 50.56 0.92 144 -13.38 67.45 0.87 168 -17.29 83.42 0.82 192 -17.20 95.04 0.76 216 -15.29 100.93 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.88 -9.14 18.36 19.20 0.98 0.98 48 -8.67 -11.34 26.11 28.44 0.98 0.98 72 -10.20 -12.23 35.81 39.82 0.97 0.97 96 -13.95 53.73 0.95 120 -12.92 68.70 0.92 144 -15.69 93.42 0.87 168 -21.49 114.42 0.82 192 -22.84 131.57 0.75 216 -20.99 141.43 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.86 1.65 1.76 0.86 0.90 48 -0.80 -0.99 1.84 1.97 0.89 0.91 72 -0.84 -1.03 2.03 2.25 0.88 0.89 96 -1.09 2.61 0.85 120 -1.16 3.01 0.81 144 -1.29 3.47 0.76 168 -1.23 3.82 0.73 192 -1.07 4.25 0.65 216 -1.05 4.36 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.15 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.93 48 -0.18 -0.20 1.23 1.26 0.93 0.94 72 -0.23 -0.21 1.55 1.62 0.91 0.91 96 -0.25 2.01 0.89 120 -0.26 2.43 0.86 144 -0.26 2.97 0.79 168 -0.38 3.40 0.75 192 -0.42 3.77 0.70 216 -0.31 4.07 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 56 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.52 0.60 1.38 1.40 0.88 0.91 48 0.58 0.60 1.69 1.66 0.89 0.91 72 0.60 0.55 2.04 1.91 0.85 0.88 96 0.61 2.24 0.85 120 0.59 2.59 0.80 144 0.50 2.84 0.75 168 0.43 3.03 0.70 192 0.39 3.43 0.65 216 0.31 3.51 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 55 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.55 4.17 4.20 48 -0.41 -0.50 4.64 4.75 72 -0.42 -0.44 5.28 5.55 96 -0.43 6.33 120 -0.51 7.29 144 -0.60 8.57 168 -0.74 9.86 192 -0.81 10.59 216 -0.45 11.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.28 4.64 4.77 48 -0.32 -0.28 5.83 5.84 72 -0.24 -0.23 7.24 7.35 96 -0.04 8.99 120 -0.22 10.53 144 -0.30 12.76 168 -0.47 14.43 192 -0.24 16.00 216 0.13 16.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.28 5.88 5.98 48 -0.47 -0.33 7.66 7.70 72 -0.48 -0.28 9.72 10.03 96 -0.17 12.27 120 -0.37 14.77 144 -0.59 18.28 168 -0.53 21.38 192 -0.27 23.60 216 -0.12 23.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 46 ---------------------------------------------------------