VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JULY 2011 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.01 0.81 0.83 0.99 0.99 21.0 21.5 48 0.00 -0.01 1.33 1.35 0.97 0.96 31.2 31.7 72 0.03 0.03 1.94 1.97 0.93 0.92 39.9 40.5 96 0.10 2.63 0.86 48.3 120 0.18 3.33 0.77 55.2 144 0.26 4.07 0.66 61.5 168 0.36 4.72 0.56 66.9 192 0.44 5.29 0.45 71.2 216 0.51 5.72 0.36 74.3 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.02 -1.05 6.44 6.67 1.00 0.99 14.6 14.7 48 -1.39 -1.63 12.31 12.43 0.98 0.98 24.6 24.6 72 -1.73 -1.99 19.74 19.73 0.95 0.95 34.4 34.3 96 -2.21 27.86 0.90 43.3 120 -2.28 36.83 0.82 51.5 144 -2.50 45.95 0.73 58.8 168 -2.45 53.73 0.63 64.4 192 -2.57 60.66 0.52 69.7 216 -2.68 66.53 0.43 73.4 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.64 -1.66 9.41 9.98 1.00 0.99 13.4 13.6 48 -3.14 -3.44 18.35 18.74 0.98 0.98 23.2 23.3 72 -4.95 -5.36 29.61 29.58 0.95 0.95 32.7 32.7 96 -7.03 42.33 0.90 41.8 120 -8.55 55.65 0.82 49.7 144 -10.11 69.02 0.72 56.6 168 -11.52 79.90 0.62 61.8 192 -13.09 89.01 0.53 66.3 216 -14.62 97.46 0.45 69.6 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.48 0.49 0.98 0.98 48 0.02 0.00 0.82 0.82 0.94 0.94 72 -0.03 -0.05 1.16 1.15 0.89 0.88 96 -0.10 1.49 0.80 120 -0.15 1.81 0.71 144 -0.21 2.12 0.60 168 -0.28 2.38 0.50 192 -0.34 2.58 0.41 216 -0.40 2.76 0.35 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.68 0.68 0.97 0.97 48 -0.05 -0.05 1.13 1.12 0.92 0.92 72 -0.09 -0.09 1.57 1.57 0.84 0.83 96 -0.13 1.96 0.73 120 -0.17 2.31 0.63 144 -0.20 2.62 0.52 168 -0.24 2.83 0.45 192 -0.27 3.06 0.36 216 -0.31 3.22 0.30 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.13 2.15 2.15 48 -0.27 -0.26 3.59 3.58 72 -0.39 -0.38 5.01 4.98 96 -0.47 6.28 120 -0.55 7.53 144 -0.61 8.71 168 -0.67 9.66 192 -0.71 10.51 216 -0.75 11.10 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.25 3.55 3.55 48 -0.42 -0.45 5.94 5.94 72 -0.58 -0.61 8.37 8.35 96 -0.77 10.70 120 -0.94 12.73 144 -1.01 14.71 168 -1.09 16.18 192 -1.10 17.41 216 -1.18 18.28 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.37 3.08 3.11 0.97 0.97 23.3 23.4 48 -0.37 -0.35 4.52 4.76 0.94 0.94 31.5 31.3 72 -0.28 -0.37 5.91 6.35 0.90 0.89 36.7 36.5 96 -0.31 7.52 0.84 40.3 120 -0.60 8.36 0.81 43.7 144 -0.96 9.59 0.76 46.7 168 -1.18 11.00 0.68 49.5 192 -1.25 12.03 0.63 51.7 216 -0.85 12.72 0.56 54.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 -0.29 4.71 4.75 0.98 0.98 21.9 21.9 48 -1.04 -1.71 7.22 7.67 0.95 0.94 30.4 30.7 72 -2.73 -3.48 9.43 9.90 0.92 0.91 36.0 36.3 96 -5.50 12.07 0.89 40.4 120 -8.03 14.87 0.84 44.3 144 -10.69 17.96 0.79 47.9 168 -13.26 21.16 0.72 50.9 192 -14.98 23.71 0.66 54.2 216 -15.78 25.81 0.57 57.6 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 0.39 0.40 0.96 0.97 48 -0.01 -0.02 0.62 0.63 0.91 0.91 72 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.82 0.85 0.86 96 -0.02 0.97 0.80 120 -0.04 1.13 0.73 144 -0.06 1.26 0.66 168 -0.08 1.39 0.59 192 -0.10 1.49 0.53 216 -0.13 1.60 0.46 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 0.33 0.33 0.94 0.93 48 -0.03 -0.05 0.50 0.50 0.85 0.84 72 -0.06 -0.08 0.61 0.62 0.79 0.76 96 -0.14 0.72 0.69 120 -0.22 0.81 0.61 144 -0.30 0.90 0.54 168 -0.39 0.96 0.49 192 -0.45 1.03 0.44 216 -0.50 1.09 0.38 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.02 1.62 1.60 48 -0.18 -0.15 2.38 2.39 72 -0.35 -0.33 2.89 2.92 96 -0.50 3.30 120 -0.65 3.67 144 -0.75 4.01 168 -0.77 4.32 192 -0.78 4.57 216 -0.79 4.88 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.44 3.34 3.38 48 -0.62 -0.75 4.85 4.95 72 -0.77 -0.89 5.92 6.00 96 -0.96 6.88 120 -1.06 7.66 144 -1.16 8.28 168 -1.22 8.84 192 -1.25 9.54 216 -1.30 10.35 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.05 1.18 1.21 0.99 0.99 14.8 14.9 48 0.07 0.06 2.40 2.42 0.98 0.98 26.5 26.5 72 0.04 0.03 3.91 3.85 0.94 0.94 37.0 36.6 96 -0.06 5.44 0.89 45.5 120 -0.12 6.82 0.82 52.5 144 -0.17 8.14 0.75 58.9 168 -0.23 9.54 0.65 64.6 192 -0.34 10.66 0.56 68.5 216 -0.46 11.58 0.49 71.5 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.98 10.60 10.76 1.00 1.00 11.4 11.5 48 -1.81 -1.91 22.29 22.71 0.98 0.98 21.3 21.4 72 -2.76 -2.84 36.84 36.49 0.96 0.96 30.3 30.2 96 -4.08 52.52 0.91 38.3 120 -5.27 68.32 0.86 45.2 144 -6.51 84.13 0.78 51.8 168 -7.92 99.54 0.69 57.4 192 -9.23 113.19 0.59 61.6 216 -10.85 124.45 0.51 64.8 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.48 12.67 12.89 1.00 1.00 8.9 8.9 48 -1.34 -1.36 26.34 26.77 0.99 0.99 16.1 16.2 72 -2.44 -2.49 44.38 43.46 0.96 0.97 23.6 23.2 96 -4.23 64.20 0.92 30.6 120 -6.49 85.27 0.87 37.3 144 -9.14 105.64 0.79 43.5 168 -12.02 124.48 0.71 48.4 192 -13.83 142.77 0.61 52.9 216 -15.25 159.75 0.51 56.6 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.04 0.60 0.61 0.99 0.99 48 -0.07 -0.07 1.15 1.17 0.96 0.96 72 -0.09 -0.09 1.74 1.73 0.91 0.91 96 -0.12 2.28 0.85 120 -0.16 2.78 0.77 144 -0.24 3.25 0.69 168 -0.31 3.68 0.60 192 -0.37 4.14 0.49 216 -0.40 4.57 0.39 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.05 0.66 0.66 0.98 0.98 48 0.08 0.08 1.17 1.19 0.94 0.94 72 0.10 0.09 1.67 1.66 0.87 0.87 96 0.07 2.08 0.80 120 0.06 2.46 0.73 144 0.01 2.84 0.64 168 -0.02 3.17 0.55 192 -0.01 3.43 0.47 216 0.00 3.66 0.39 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 2.86 2.86 48 0.01 -0.02 5.43 5.46 72 -0.03 -0.04 7.84 7.78 96 -0.06 10.04 120 -0.10 12.07 144 -0.16 13.94 168 -0.22 15.73 192 -0.19 17.19 216 -0.11 18.37 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.05 3.62 3.60 48 -0.15 -0.16 6.49 6.48 72 -0.24 -0.26 9.55 9.33 96 -0.44 12.57 120 -0.58 15.63 144 -0.66 18.46 168 -0.68 20.77 192 -0.59 23.25 216 -0.49 25.37 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.34 -1.70 7.76 8.23 0.96 0.96 48 -1.61 -1.65 10.48 10.93 0.96 0.96 72 -2.97 -3.80 13.62 14.85 0.94 0.93 96 -5.76 18.63 0.89 120 -5.01 22.60 0.85 144 -2.93 26.98 0.78 168 -2.99 31.21 0.72 192 -2.86 35.26 0.67 216 0.94 38.11 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.67 -3.35 9.59 9.12 0.95 0.96 48 -2.70 -3.16 12.82 12.95 0.96 0.96 72 -4.29 -5.57 17.19 18.12 0.95 0.95 96 -7.94 24.00 0.92 120 -7.86 30.21 0.88 144 -5.59 36.67 0.82 168 -4.28 44.04 0.76 192 -4.91 49.75 0.72 216 -1.96 54.68 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.46 -3.06 13.42 12.80 0.97 0.98 48 -4.64 -4.33 19.58 19.10 0.97 0.97 72 -8.16 -8.96 28.05 28.21 0.96 0.96 96 -13.69 38.96 0.92 120 -15.49 49.33 0.87 144 -13.96 59.45 0.84 168 -11.51 71.28 0.78 192 -12.96 79.40 0.74 216 -12.04 87.41 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.72 1.49 1.73 0.84 0.85 48 -0.54 -0.70 1.61 1.82 0.89 0.89 72 -0.46 -0.69 1.73 1.97 0.89 0.88 96 -0.68 2.18 0.85 120 -0.71 2.41 0.82 144 -0.71 2.76 0.78 168 -0.65 3.07 0.73 192 -0.74 3.38 0.67 216 -0.74 3.55 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.21 0.86 0.93 0.85 0.84 48 0.12 0.21 1.03 1.07 0.88 0.87 72 0.05 0.15 1.23 1.26 0.85 0.86 96 0.07 1.46 0.81 120 -0.01 1.65 0.79 144 -0.01 1.86 0.76 168 0.06 2.09 0.70 192 0.00 2.24 0.66 216 -0.11 2.44 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.33 0.38 1.09 1.09 0.87 0.88 48 0.33 0.35 1.34 1.32 0.88 0.88 72 0.33 0.31 1.63 1.60 0.84 0.84 96 0.24 1.72 0.82 120 0.20 1.95 0.79 144 0.14 2.18 0.73 168 0.17 2.32 0.72 192 0.17 2.54 0.69 216 0.12 2.68 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.99 3.47 3.73 48 -0.76 -1.06 4.00 4.22 72 -0.87 -1.09 4.59 4.89 96 -1.00 5.35 120 -0.95 5.83 144 -0.99 6.24 168 -0.85 6.82 192 -0.90 7.30 216 -0.96 7.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.57 3.81 3.87 48 -1.05 -0.68 4.60 4.65 72 -1.10 -0.78 5.34 5.40 96 -0.83 6.20 120 -0.74 7.04 144 -0.75 7.82 168 -0.84 8.54 192 -0.88 9.30 216 -0.86 9.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.70 5.53 5.38 48 -0.97 -0.93 7.01 6.81 72 -1.13 -1.19 8.51 8.65 96 -1.29 10.31 120 -1.28 11.73 144 -1.43 13.22 168 -1.80 14.73 192 -2.14 16.00 216 -2.27 16.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.07 -5.30 10.29 9.23 0.96 0.95 48 -7.15 -7.15 12.42 12.66 0.96 0.96 72 -4.19 -4.29 15.31 15.21 0.95 0.94 96 2.19 19.44 0.91 120 8.53 25.62 0.86 144 12.01 31.58 0.82 168 15.68 38.51 0.75 192 18.79 43.17 0.67 216 21.54 47.34 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.91 -6.52 12.84 11.01 0.97 0.97 48 -9.75 -9.17 16.54 16.15 0.97 0.97 72 -7.08 -7.21 21.33 21.07 0.95 0.94 96 -0.39 27.46 0.91 120 7.34 38.24 0.86 144 9.81 45.58 0.84 168 11.45 55.07 0.76 192 13.57 62.79 0.69 216 17.77 70.97 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.89 -6.17 16.52 15.49 0.97 0.97 48 -9.78 -9.75 23.39 23.29 0.97 0.97 72 -8.26 -9.52 34.19 32.98 0.94 0.94 96 -3.58 44.72 0.89 120 3.75 58.81 0.85 144 5.58 71.17 0.83 168 4.77 84.99 0.74 192 4.98 95.47 0.69 216 8.15 104.80 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.16 1.34 1.19 0.88 0.85 48 -0.46 -0.26 1.53 1.40 0.90 0.88 72 -0.45 -0.25 1.76 1.65 0.88 0.87 96 -0.21 1.88 0.84 120 -0.09 2.23 0.81 144 -0.15 2.61 0.77 168 -0.32 3.00 0.70 192 -0.21 3.33 0.64 216 -0.05 3.61 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 -0.01 0.80 0.81 0.90 0.91 48 -0.02 -0.05 1.02 1.05 0.91 0.91 72 -0.07 -0.12 1.32 1.33 0.88 0.88 96 -0.13 1.71 0.82 120 -0.10 2.03 0.76 144 -0.20 2.33 0.73 168 -0.32 2.58 0.67 192 -0.45 2.88 0.61 216 -0.45 2.93 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.68 0.69 1.46 1.45 0.88 0.87 48 0.79 0.79 1.85 1.87 0.86 0.85 72 0.80 0.76 2.23 2.16 0.81 0.81 96 0.77 2.54 0.75 120 0.83 2.91 0.68 144 0.99 3.06 0.65 168 0.95 3.25 0.61 192 1.03 3.60 0.51 216 0.97 3.58 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.55 3.70 3.53 48 -0.82 -0.66 4.18 3.98 72 -1.04 -0.94 4.87 4.64 96 -1.00 5.43 120 -1.24 6.10 144 -1.14 6.84 168 -1.32 7.43 192 -1.39 7.68 216 -1.27 8.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.45 3.66 3.58 48 -0.51 -0.68 4.55 4.49 72 -0.65 -0.85 5.91 5.78 96 -0.98 7.00 120 -1.28 8.56 144 -1.57 9.75 168 -1.61 10.85 192 -1.65 11.70 216 -1.45 12.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.69 5.71 5.26 48 -1.07 -0.78 7.73 7.14 72 -1.12 -1.02 10.51 9.58 96 -1.22 12.27 120 -1.59 14.80 144 -2.15 17.53 168 -2.06 19.35 192 -1.90 20.84 216 -1.87 21.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -1.97 10.17 9.98 0.92 0.92 48 0.69 0.45 13.18 11.93 0.93 0.93 72 1.39 2.06 17.27 15.46 0.92 0.92 96 0.00 19.48 0.90 120 -1.41 22.59 0.88 144 -1.63 25.72 0.84 168 0.37 29.36 0.79 192 2.95 33.92 0.73 216 3.93 36.41 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 99 12 UTC = 100 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.48 -1.82 11.50 11.53 0.91 0.92 48 0.58 1.32 14.62 14.71 0.92 0.93 72 1.98 3.84 19.42 19.44 0.90 0.91 96 1.64 24.66 0.88 120 -1.33 29.80 0.83 144 -3.06 34.17 0.80 168 -1.67 39.54 0.77 192 0.30 44.25 0.74 216 1.39 48.38 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 113 12 UTC = 112 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.40 -7.62 17.88 18.11 0.92 0.92 48 -6.29 -6.24 23.20 23.09 0.93 0.93 72 -7.11 -5.12 31.37 30.29 0.91 0.91 96 -9.20 40.49 0.87 120 -14.78 51.11 0.82 144 -18.11 60.40 0.80 168 -18.71 67.18 0.78 192 -18.01 73.34 0.76 216 -18.48 80.61 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 114 12 UTC = 113 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.28 1.84 1.57 0.83 0.84 48 -0.32 -0.18 2.05 1.83 0.87 0.87 72 -0.25 -0.08 2.29 2.11 0.84 0.84 96 -0.07 2.41 0.81 120 -0.10 2.74 0.76 144 -0.13 3.06 0.71 168 -0.14 3.33 0.68 192 -0.13 3.57 0.65 216 -0.15 3.85 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 118 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 0.94 0.95 0.82 0.83 48 -0.09 -0.08 1.15 1.13 0.85 0.86 72 -0.16 -0.12 1.41 1.34 0.83 0.84 96 -0.21 1.61 0.80 120 -0.31 1.88 0.76 144 -0.39 2.11 0.73 168 -0.42 2.33 0.72 192 -0.47 2.49 0.71 216 -0.52 2.67 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.28 1.22 1.17 0.82 0.83 48 -0.42 -0.45 1.53 1.47 0.84 0.84 72 -0.55 -0.55 1.83 1.75 0.82 0.82 96 -0.62 1.99 0.79 120 -0.69 2.21 0.76 144 -0.79 2.46 0.75 168 -0.89 2.61 0.75 192 -0.97 2.76 0.73 216 -1.07 2.91 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.00 -0.75 3.84 3.73 48 -1.07 -0.78 4.42 4.23 72 -1.14 -0.85 5.03 4.85 96 -0.85 5.44 120 -0.93 5.99 144 -1.04 6.51 168 -0.99 6.90 192 -0.98 7.27 216 -1.08 7.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 116 12 UTC = 115 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.82 3.97 3.89 48 -1.10 -0.98 4.91 4.82 72 -1.20 -1.08 5.92 5.81 96 -1.02 6.69 120 -0.93 7.58 144 -1.03 8.41 168 -1.07 9.15 192 -1.03 9.80 216 -1.13 10.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.77 5.96 5.94 48 -1.12 -1.15 7.99 7.87 72 -1.34 -1.27 10.00 9.88 96 -1.25 11.81 120 -1.20 13.67 144 -1.07 15.16 168 -1.12 16.49 192 -1.01 17.29 216 -0.92 18.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 133 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.83 -2.18 7.44 8.54 0.97 0.97 48 -1.17 1.09 10.90 13.30 0.97 0.98 72 0.76 3.48 14.78 19.44 0.97 0.96 96 3.59 23.02 0.96 120 3.10 29.71 0.96 144 5.19 36.38 0.94 168 8.91 49.10 0.91 192 13.42 60.01 0.88 216 12.82 64.33 0.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.81 -7.18 11.67 12.71 0.97 0.98 48 -6.05 -4.61 15.87 17.93 0.97 0.97 72 -4.90 -4.58 20.35 23.93 0.97 0.97 96 -2.56 28.68 0.94 120 -2.63 38.43 0.95 144 -2.35 50.81 0.93 168 1.41 63.58 0.90 192 3.35 78.93 0.85 216 4.43 86.00 0.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.57 -6.45 14.82 14.96 0.96 0.98 48 -4.80 -3.16 20.85 21.54 0.97 0.98 72 -5.68 -2.93 27.73 28.62 0.96 0.97 96 -1.30 38.20 0.95 120 -2.57 54.56 0.93 144 -3.18 65.01 0.92 168 0.78 78.99 0.89 192 2.76 97.61 0.84 216 8.98 110.82 0.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.45 1.21 1.23 0.84 0.81 48 -0.54 -0.47 1.41 1.54 0.85 0.84 72 -0.50 -0.54 1.56 1.82 0.84 0.84 96 -0.51 1.83 0.85 120 -0.54 1.83 0.86 144 -0.68 2.42 0.79 168 -0.67 2.66 0.77 192 -0.76 3.15 0.67 216 -0.57 3.21 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 -0.06 0.95 0.91 0.87 0.90 48 0.01 -0.10 1.16 1.13 0.89 0.90 72 -0.06 -0.19 1.39 1.36 0.88 0.92 96 -0.07 1.53 0.90 120 -0.07 1.96 0.87 144 -0.14 2.28 0.87 168 -0.12 2.51 0.84 192 -0.21 3.00 0.78 216 -0.01 3.43 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.33 0.61 1.25 1.47 0.89 0.88 48 0.35 0.70 1.56 1.75 0.90 0.90 72 0.26 0.76 1.91 2.18 0.87 0.86 96 0.61 2.21 0.89 120 0.64 2.39 0.89 144 0.55 2.64 0.86 168 0.49 2.93 0.81 192 0.47 3.34 0.77 216 0.47 3.36 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.28 3.62 3.67 48 -0.15 -0.33 4.17 4.23 72 -0.22 -0.28 4.67 4.88 96 -0.43 5.43 120 -0.38 6.14 144 -0.79 6.96 168 -0.54 7.86 192 -0.44 8.53 216 -0.25 8.88 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 36 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.50 4.54 4.31 48 -0.45 -0.64 5.59 5.24 72 -0.45 -0.57 6.66 6.51 96 -0.69 7.28 120 -1.13 8.54 144 -0.77 9.89 168 -0.94 11.19 192 -0.31 12.55 216 0.05 13.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 36 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.09 5.33 5.33 48 -0.80 -0.21 6.92 6.84 72 -1.21 -0.23 8.19 8.65 96 -0.67 9.76 120 -1.30 11.92 144 -1.34 13.33 168 -1.11 15.39 192 -0.68 16.94 216 -0.49 18.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 36 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.77 -1.58 9.38 9.11 0.73 0.66 48 -2.21 -1.83 9.69 9.85 0.81 0.80 72 -1.49 -2.38 10.19 10.81 0.82 0.78 96 -2.55 11.57 0.76 120 -2.89 12.36 0.74 144 -3.63 13.46 0.73 168 -4.49 14.78 0.71 192 -4.75 15.70 0.68 216 -3.82 15.42 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.00 -3.15 12.41 12.17 0.60 0.59 48 -3.66 -3.42 12.94 13.01 0.74 0.73 72 -3.99 -4.64 13.38 14.10 0.77 0.73 96 -5.86 14.87 0.73 120 -7.12 16.01 0.70 144 -8.62 17.60 0.68 168 -10.37 19.42 0.67 192 -11.35 20.66 0.63 216 -11.37 20.61 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.71 -6.75 15.56 15.78 0.58 0.57 48 -7.74 -7.95 16.74 17.20 0.72 0.72 72 -9.06 -9.41 17.94 18.71 0.75 0.75 96 -11.06 20.20 0.75 120 -13.16 22.03 0.75 144 -16.01 24.68 0.74 168 -19.11 27.85 0.71 192 -20.90 29.96 0.69 216 -21.63 31.01 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.21 1.08 1.05 0.53 0.47 48 -0.17 -0.21 1.14 1.10 0.60 0.59 72 -0.17 -0.22 1.16 1.13 0.63 0.61 96 -0.25 1.16 0.61 120 -0.27 1.20 0.59 144 -0.30 1.25 0.57 168 -0.35 1.33 0.54 192 -0.43 1.45 0.50 216 -0.53 1.57 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.14 0.86 0.93 0.52 0.51 48 -0.22 -0.17 0.92 0.97 0.60 0.60 72 -0.29 -0.22 0.97 1.03 0.66 0.62 96 -0.25 1.08 0.62 120 -0.28 1.12 0.62 144 -0.30 1.16 0.63 168 -0.36 1.24 0.62 192 -0.38 1.31 0.59 216 -0.39 1.36 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.11 0.73 0.69 0.54 0.56 48 0.18 0.09 0.77 0.76 0.63 0.64 72 0.13 0.12 0.81 0.81 0.64 0.69 96 0.09 0.86 0.68 120 0.03 0.91 0.65 144 -0.09 0.94 0.64 168 -0.18 0.98 0.65 192 -0.23 1.02 0.64 216 -0.28 1.05 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.68 3.52 3.49 48 -0.87 -0.90 3.86 3.87 72 -1.13 -1.02 4.17 4.13 96 -1.11 4.40 120 -1.29 4.64 144 -1.39 4.90 168 -1.49 5.23 192 -1.59 5.40 216 -1.60 5.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.15 -0.94 4.04 4.08 48 -1.25 -1.02 4.43 4.45 72 -1.41 -1.11 4.81 4.83 96 -1.10 5.16 120 -1.14 5.44 144 -1.13 5.91 168 -1.08 6.24 192 -1.07 6.77 216 -1.14 7.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -1.02 5.01 5.12 48 -1.11 -1.37 5.75 6.10 72 -1.19 -1.49 6.49 6.87 96 -1.49 7.81 120 -1.58 8.66 144 -1.69 9.02 168 -1.80 9.43 192 -1.81 10.03 216 -2.00 10.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.21 -3.42 9.61 9.58 0.96 0.96 48 -2.72 -3.18 12.44 12.26 0.96 0.96 72 -1.74 -2.21 16.35 16.03 0.95 0.95 96 -1.29 20.56 0.92 120 -0.25 25.69 0.88 144 0.96 30.62 0.84 168 2.23 35.66 0.79 192 3.73 40.43 0.74 216 5.32 43.93 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 361 12 UTC = 357 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.29 -3.89 12.01 11.55 0.96 0.96 48 -3.83 -3.73 15.83 15.80 0.96 0.96 72 -2.95 -2.93 21.49 21.48 0.95 0.95 96 -2.38 28.30 0.92 120 -1.84 36.54 0.88 144 -1.44 43.90 0.84 168 -0.57 50.60 0.80 192 0.10 56.97 0.75 216 1.60 63.11 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 379 12 UTC = 372 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.37 -6.09 17.01 16.91 0.96 0.96 48 -7.11 -7.22 23.03 23.17 0.97 0.97 72 -7.82 -7.91 32.85 32.32 0.95 0.95 96 -8.92 43.63 0.92 120 -9.92 56.41 0.87 144 -10.78 68.28 0.83 168 -11.25 78.19 0.79 192 -11.75 86.63 0.76 216 -11.81 95.99 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 380 12 UTC = 373 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.44 1.62 1.54 0.85 0.85 48 -0.50 -0.43 1.82 1.75 0.89 0.88 72 -0.45 -0.40 2.05 2.01 0.87 0.87 96 -0.37 2.32 0.84 120 -0.35 2.66 0.80 144 -0.35 3.04 0.76 168 -0.38 3.37 0.71 192 -0.40 3.64 0.67 216 -0.41 3.92 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 394 12 UTC = 386 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.92 0.93 0.87 0.87 48 0.00 0.00 1.12 1.12 0.89 0.89 72 -0.06 -0.05 1.40 1.37 0.87 0.87 96 -0.12 1.67 0.83 120 -0.18 1.96 0.80 144 -0.24 2.24 0.76 168 -0.27 2.49 0.72 192 -0.34 2.68 0.68 216 -0.40 2.89 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 423 12 UTC = 414 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.18 1.31 1.30 0.87 0.87 48 0.15 0.13 1.63 1.62 0.87 0.87 72 0.10 0.08 1.96 1.95 0.83 0.83 96 0.04 2.24 0.79 120 0.01 2.54 0.75 144 -0.04 2.76 0.72 168 -0.07 2.95 0.70 192 -0.09 3.18 0.66 216 -0.13 3.32 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 419 12 UTC = 409 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.73 3.66 3.65 48 -0.87 -0.79 4.21 4.14 72 -0.98 -0.89 4.88 4.82 96 -0.90 5.43 120 -0.96 6.09 144 -1.03 6.65 168 -1.04 7.21 192 -1.04 7.59 216 -1.06 7.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 368 12 UTC = 363 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.64 3.82 3.78 48 -0.89 -0.79 4.74 4.70 72 -1.00 -0.90 5.86 5.78 96 -0.92 6.82 120 -0.94 7.97 144 -1.07 8.96 168 -1.17 9.87 192 -1.13 10.67 216 -1.15 11.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 396 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.72 5.60 5.49 48 -0.98 -0.98 7.49 7.29 72 -1.16 -1.17 9.63 9.46 96 -1.31 11.57 120 -1.36 13.50 144 -1.42 15.40 168 -1.63 16.98 192 -1.53 18.20 216 -1.54 18.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.37 -0.20 8.91 11.42 0.98 0.97 48 -0.09 0.26 13.56 16.84 0.98 0.97 72 1.06 -0.64 19.28 23.09 0.96 0.96 96 -0.88 30.50 0.93 120 -1.28 38.36 0.92 144 -0.92 45.47 0.91 168 -0.11 54.02 0.87 192 0.18 63.86 0.82 216 1.80 68.14 0.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.15 -8.04 13.33 15.11 0.98 0.98 48 -7.64 -9.11 19.68 22.38 0.98 0.97 72 -7.42 -11.13 26.32 32.37 0.97 0.97 96 -10.38 42.86 0.95 120 -11.51 54.48 0.94 144 -13.83 66.94 0.92 168 -15.51 77.72 0.88 192 -19.96 92.75 0.82 216 -16.57 97.38 0.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.09 -9.39 18.26 19.51 0.98 0.98 48 -8.32 -11.13 25.98 29.10 0.98 0.98 72 -9.48 -13.15 35.42 41.17 0.97 0.97 96 -11.84 57.51 0.95 120 -13.71 78.16 0.92 144 -18.19 95.47 0.90 168 -21.04 109.77 0.87 192 -26.62 127.10 0.82 216 -22.49 136.12 0.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.97 1.68 1.80 0.86 0.88 48 -0.96 -1.10 1.94 2.11 0.88 0.90 72 -0.96 -1.15 2.19 2.34 0.88 0.89 96 -1.10 2.59 0.89 120 -1.09 2.84 0.88 144 -1.21 3.45 0.84 168 -1.30 3.77 0.81 192 -1.59 4.30 0.75 216 -1.55 4.68 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.20 1.04 1.06 0.91 0.93 48 -0.13 -0.27 1.31 1.36 0.92 0.93 72 -0.20 -0.27 1.67 1.69 0.90 0.93 96 -0.20 2.09 0.90 120 -0.22 2.56 0.88 144 -0.38 3.09 0.84 168 -0.50 3.37 0.81 192 -0.66 3.94 0.76 216 -0.53 4.21 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 55 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.33 0.38 1.35 1.38 0.89 0.88 48 0.33 0.40 1.65 1.65 0.90 0.88 72 0.28 0.35 2.02 1.93 0.87 0.87 96 0.26 2.13 0.87 120 0.23 2.45 0.83 144 0.12 2.75 0.80 168 0.10 2.98 0.76 192 0.03 3.17 0.73 216 -0.09 3.42 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.66 4.45 4.45 48 -0.46 -0.76 5.00 5.13 72 -0.51 -0.71 5.69 5.96 96 -0.67 6.72 120 -0.71 7.43 144 -0.71 8.62 168 -0.80 9.41 192 -0.70 10.13 216 -0.84 10.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.42 4.90 4.75 48 -0.37 -0.47 6.07 6.03 72 -0.38 -0.36 7.49 7.78 96 -0.47 9.11 120 -0.51 10.65 144 -0.29 12.30 168 -0.35 13.61 192 0.02 15.13 216 0.01 16.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.22 6.06 6.00 48 -0.37 -0.08 7.74 7.91 72 -0.62 -0.03 9.47 9.96 96 -0.16 11.89 120 -0.55 14.76 144 -0.44 17.24 168 0.01 20.17 192 0.16 21.88 216 0.18 23.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------