VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY SEPTEMBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.06 0.87 0.87 0.99 0.99 19.2 19.3 48 0.13 0.12 1.51 1.52 0.97 0.97 29.2 29.3 72 0.22 0.21 2.28 2.32 0.94 0.94 38.5 38.9 96 0.31 3.28 0.88 48.4 120 0.41 4.21 0.80 56.5 144 0.50 5.18 0.71 63.5 168 0.60 6.00 0.60 69.6 192 0.75 6.70 0.49 74.4 216 0.88 7.18 0.41 77.9 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.55 6.57 6.73 1.00 1.00 12.2 12.2 48 -0.74 -0.80 12.84 13.12 0.99 0.99 21.2 21.2 72 -0.66 -0.80 21.22 21.78 0.96 0.96 30.2 30.7 96 -0.59 32.45 0.91 39.9 120 -0.42 44.09 0.83 48.2 144 -0.36 55.53 0.74 55.4 168 -0.04 65.32 0.64 61.3 192 0.58 73.55 0.55 66.2 216 0.87 79.29 0.47 69.7 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.66 9.27 9.58 1.00 1.00 10.4 10.4 48 -1.47 -1.58 18.50 19.24 0.99 0.99 18.5 18.5 72 -2.39 -2.61 31.04 32.12 0.96 0.96 27.0 27.4 96 -3.27 48.04 0.92 36.3 120 -3.83 66.31 0.84 44.5 144 -4.38 82.94 0.75 51.5 168 -5.30 97.90 0.66 57.4 192 -6.61 109.92 0.57 61.9 216 -8.36 118.97 0.49 65.4 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 -0.03 -0.03 0.85 0.86 0.97 0.97 72 -0.07 -0.08 1.25 1.29 0.92 0.92 96 -0.11 1.77 0.85 120 -0.15 2.24 0.76 144 -0.19 2.65 0.67 168 -0.23 3.03 0.57 192 -0.30 3.30 0.49 216 -0.38 3.54 0.41 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.65 0.64 0.98 0.98 48 0.02 0.02 1.09 1.09 0.94 0.94 72 0.00 0.00 1.53 1.53 0.87 0.87 96 -0.01 1.97 0.78 120 -0.01 2.38 0.68 144 -0.02 2.74 0.58 168 -0.07 3.06 0.47 192 -0.14 3.29 0.38 216 -0.22 3.47 0.30 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.11 2.11 2.12 48 -0.25 -0.23 3.64 3.68 72 -0.36 -0.34 5.23 5.32 96 -0.45 7.02 120 -0.49 8.67 144 -0.49 10.12 168 -0.48 11.29 192 -0.55 12.22 216 -0.67 12.90 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.27 3.31 3.30 48 -0.52 -0.50 5.68 5.70 72 -0.70 -0.70 8.28 8.39 96 -0.83 11.21 120 -0.90 14.05 144 -0.91 16.49 168 -0.94 18.49 192 -1.15 19.89 216 -1.34 20.91 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.75 3.09 3.03 0.97 0.98 25.1 24.8 48 -1.05 -0.88 4.56 4.62 0.94 0.94 34.3 33.9 72 -1.19 -1.10 5.85 6.20 0.90 0.89 40.2 39.9 96 -1.34 7.43 0.84 44.2 120 -1.38 8.23 0.80 47.4 144 -1.22 9.44 0.74 50.6 168 -0.93 10.74 0.65 53.1 192 -0.96 11.64 0.60 55.5 216 -1.35 12.00 0.60 57.5 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.50 0.05 4.38 4.44 0.98 0.97 24.3 24.1 48 -0.51 -0.94 6.47 6.98 0.95 0.94 33.5 33.4 72 -2.14 -2.66 8.42 9.00 0.91 0.90 39.4 39.3 96 -4.69 11.21 0.86 43.9 120 -6.60 13.67 0.81 48.2 144 -8.37 16.01 0.75 51.9 168 -10.28 18.26 0.70 55.2 192 -12.17 20.47 0.65 58.0 216 -13.84 22.69 0.59 60.3 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.04 0.40 0.42 0.96 0.96 48 0.02 0.00 0.65 0.66 0.90 0.91 72 0.04 0.02 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.86 96 0.02 0.97 0.80 120 0.01 1.09 0.75 144 0.00 1.18 0.70 168 -0.02 1.28 0.65 192 -0.04 1.38 0.60 216 -0.07 1.45 0.56 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.31 0.30 0.94 0.94 48 0.00 -0.02 0.45 0.45 0.85 0.85 72 -0.01 -0.04 0.56 0.56 0.77 0.76 96 -0.07 0.64 0.68 120 -0.12 0.72 0.60 144 -0.17 0.79 0.53 168 -0.22 0.84 0.48 192 -0.27 0.88 0.44 216 -0.32 0.93 0.39 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.02 1.69 1.69 48 -0.12 -0.11 2.51 2.51 72 -0.24 -0.25 3.06 3.04 96 -0.36 3.48 120 -0.45 3.82 144 -0.54 4.11 168 -0.59 4.37 192 -0.59 4.64 216 -0.59 4.90 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.48 3.18 3.21 48 -0.74 -0.80 4.63 4.72 72 -0.91 -0.94 5.70 5.78 96 -1.04 6.65 120 -1.15 7.38 144 -1.22 8.12 168 -1.30 8.78 192 -1.30 9.39 216 -1.36 9.81 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.08 1.18 1.17 0.99 0.99 14.9 14.7 48 0.09 0.07 2.28 2.28 0.98 0.98 26.1 25.9 72 0.04 0.04 3.61 3.54 0.94 0.94 36.0 35.4 96 -0.02 5.06 0.88 44.3 120 -0.12 6.53 0.81 52.0 144 -0.28 7.89 0.72 58.5 168 -0.46 9.18 0.61 63.7 192 -0.59 10.33 0.50 68.1 216 -0.65 11.31 0.38 71.3 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.44 10.70 10.46 1.00 1.00 11.3 11.2 48 -0.91 -1.09 21.80 21.73 0.98 0.98 20.6 20.4 72 -1.71 -1.83 34.78 34.55 0.95 0.95 28.7 28.5 96 -2.69 49.43 0.91 36.2 120 -3.72 65.42 0.84 43.3 144 -4.92 80.26 0.75 49.2 168 -6.35 95.02 0.65 54.5 192 -7.63 107.40 0.54 58.5 216 -8.65 119.55 0.43 62.1 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.13 13.00 12.90 1.00 1.00 8.8 8.7 48 0.06 -0.13 26.31 26.43 0.98 0.98 15.6 15.5 72 -0.68 -0.80 42.39 42.18 0.96 0.96 22.3 22.1 96 -1.69 60.56 0.91 28.9 120 -2.54 81.71 0.85 35.6 144 -3.26 101.09 0.76 41.4 168 -4.37 120.10 0.66 46.5 192 -6.02 137.17 0.56 50.7 216 -8.26 154.03 0.44 54.3 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.61 0.60 0.99 0.99 48 -0.03 -0.03 1.13 1.13 0.96 0.96 72 -0.04 -0.04 1.66 1.64 0.91 0.91 96 -0.05 2.16 0.84 120 -0.06 2.72 0.75 144 -0.05 3.22 0.65 168 -0.06 3.62 0.55 192 -0.08 4.02 0.44 216 -0.14 4.35 0.35 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.06 0.63 0.64 0.98 0.98 48 0.08 0.09 1.09 1.10 0.94 0.94 72 0.11 0.10 1.53 1.53 0.88 0.88 96 0.12 1.96 0.80 120 0.14 2.42 0.70 144 0.15 2.80 0.61 168 0.18 3.12 0.51 192 0.18 3.41 0.42 216 0.12 3.64 0.35 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 2.83 2.81 48 0.01 0.02 5.29 5.24 72 0.00 0.01 7.42 7.37 96 0.01 9.45 120 0.03 11.50 144 0.07 13.32 168 0.06 14.88 192 -0.06 16.15 216 -0.19 17.36 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.01 3.56 3.54 48 -0.07 -0.06 6.27 6.24 72 -0.14 -0.12 9.03 8.94 96 -0.22 11.72 120 -0.25 14.59 144 -0.28 17.32 168 -0.27 19.74 192 -0.37 21.83 216 -0.52 23.63 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.75 -0.37 7.92 7.90 0.97 0.98 48 0.86 1.03 11.44 12.44 0.97 0.96 72 1.98 0.60 17.61 18.29 0.93 0.93 96 1.75 26.05 0.87 120 4.73 33.74 0.82 144 4.61 38.65 0.79 168 1.90 43.15 0.74 192 -1.28 46.52 0.67 216 -1.73 53.31 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.29 -3.23 10.13 9.88 0.98 0.98 48 -1.58 -2.82 14.77 15.06 0.98 0.97 72 -0.87 -4.34 22.80 24.17 0.95 0.95 96 -3.74 35.63 0.90 120 -1.48 47.12 0.84 144 -1.00 56.21 0.79 168 -4.58 62.54 0.75 192 -7.62 71.58 0.68 216 -7.67 78.62 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 91 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.29 -2.55 13.55 13.51 0.98 0.98 48 -0.82 -2.61 22.11 22.98 0.98 0.98 72 -1.38 -5.37 35.50 37.35 0.96 0.96 96 -7.15 55.27 0.92 120 -6.84 74.66 0.86 144 -7.78 90.81 0.79 168 -14.57 102.73 0.74 192 -20.08 116.41 0.69 216 -20.79 122.51 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 91 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.66 1.60 1.83 0.89 0.89 48 -0.52 -0.71 1.79 2.01 0.92 0.92 72 -0.50 -0.69 2.02 2.24 0.92 0.92 96 -0.69 2.61 0.90 120 -0.76 3.11 0.85 144 -0.61 3.53 0.80 168 -0.51 3.97 0.74 192 -0.39 4.53 0.67 216 -0.30 5.05 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.02 0.86 0.91 0.93 0.92 48 0.02 -0.04 1.08 1.16 0.94 0.93 72 -0.02 -0.11 1.41 1.53 0.92 0.91 96 -0.18 2.03 0.88 120 -0.25 2.44 0.82 144 -0.29 2.81 0.74 168 -0.43 3.11 0.68 192 -0.48 3.50 0.60 216 -0.52 3.67 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 91 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.39 0.43 1.07 1.07 0.91 0.90 48 0.44 0.48 1.34 1.32 0.90 0.89 72 0.43 0.52 1.62 1.69 0.87 0.86 96 0.45 2.06 0.81 120 0.33 2.32 0.76 144 0.27 2.67 0.69 168 0.24 2.92 0.66 192 0.20 3.17 0.61 216 0.27 3.30 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 91 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.90 3.56 3.84 48 -0.78 -1.06 4.14 4.57 72 -0.86 -1.24 5.10 5.53 96 -1.31 6.55 120 -1.21 7.57 144 -1.25 8.31 168 -1.40 8.88 192 -1.37 9.34 216 -1.22 9.98 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.73 3.94 3.95 48 -0.82 -0.90 4.83 4.98 72 -0.91 -0.98 6.06 6.50 96 -1.05 8.27 120 -1.16 9.99 144 -1.32 11.36 168 -1.30 11.96 192 -1.37 13.27 216 -1.48 13.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -0.91 5.59 5.55 48 -1.07 -1.09 7.39 7.62 72 -1.29 -1.02 10.25 10.29 96 -1.17 13.42 120 -1.39 16.45 144 -1.69 18.77 168 -1.80 19.91 192 -2.42 21.98 216 -2.45 22.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.13 -5.07 8.60 8.45 0.97 0.97 48 -6.31 -8.12 11.60 12.34 0.98 0.98 72 -5.76 -7.81 15.02 15.04 0.96 0.97 96 -4.84 19.06 0.95 120 -2.26 27.51 0.88 144 -0.34 35.90 0.82 168 -1.20 45.86 0.72 192 -3.53 54.15 0.61 216 -5.97 61.49 0.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.87 -7.28 12.46 11.11 0.98 0.98 48 -10.84 -11.78 17.67 17.49 0.99 0.98 72 -10.95 -12.18 23.95 23.28 0.97 0.97 96 -12.18 30.66 0.95 120 -12.62 45.05 0.89 144 -11.04 60.93 0.81 168 -9.58 78.15 0.66 192 -12.64 88.45 0.56 216 -23.71 98.36 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.82 -6.41 16.21 14.43 0.98 0.98 48 -11.03 -11.44 25.07 23.65 0.98 0.98 72 -12.31 -13.49 34.98 34.77 0.97 0.97 96 -16.44 47.62 0.95 120 -20.35 71.65 0.89 144 -15.02 95.20 0.78 168 -11.15 120.56 0.64 192 -19.55 130.58 0.60 216 -40.27 142.14 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.03 1.25 1.18 0.90 0.89 48 -0.38 -0.17 1.41 1.34 0.92 0.92 72 -0.39 -0.16 1.61 1.55 0.92 0.92 96 -0.28 1.87 0.89 120 -0.45 2.37 0.84 144 -0.61 3.00 0.72 168 -0.58 3.76 0.55 192 -0.58 4.12 0.51 216 -0.99 4.27 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.01 0.82 0.78 0.92 0.93 48 -0.09 -0.05 1.07 1.02 0.93 0.93 72 -0.15 -0.07 1.37 1.36 0.91 0.91 96 -0.28 1.75 0.87 120 -0.49 2.32 0.82 144 -0.43 2.77 0.71 168 -0.23 3.33 0.60 192 -0.35 3.43 0.59 216 -0.91 3.74 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.45 0.45 1.08 1.02 0.91 0.91 48 0.48 0.51 1.40 1.32 0.90 0.91 72 0.51 0.45 1.70 1.68 0.87 0.88 96 0.47 2.00 0.81 120 0.47 2.23 0.75 144 0.57 2.57 0.69 168 0.57 2.90 0.65 192 0.43 3.04 0.65 216 0.09 3.26 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.54 3.56 3.41 48 -0.72 -0.55 4.00 3.78 72 -0.78 -0.62 4.64 4.32 96 -0.71 4.98 120 -0.98 5.91 144 -1.03 6.90 168 -0.76 7.84 192 -0.65 8.72 216 -0.83 9.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.47 3.59 3.60 48 -0.64 -0.60 4.69 4.48 72 -0.80 -0.74 5.90 5.86 96 -0.95 7.31 120 -1.17 9.27 144 -1.22 11.52 168 -0.98 14.03 192 -0.72 14.77 216 -0.60 15.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.71 5.19 5.00 48 -0.75 -0.76 7.25 6.80 72 -1.04 -0.99 9.41 9.54 96 -1.10 12.29 120 -1.07 15.76 144 -0.43 20.63 168 -0.58 23.61 192 -1.07 23.54 216 -0.94 24.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.90 0.53 9.84 8.62 0.95 0.94 48 1.61 2.19 13.43 11.32 0.95 0.95 72 2.66 3.78 17.99 15.94 0.93 0.93 96 3.83 22.65 0.89 120 5.03 26.53 0.86 144 8.62 31.71 0.84 168 9.95 36.94 0.80 192 9.52 40.15 0.75 216 9.72 43.30 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.24 -0.12 10.05 10.45 0.94 0.94 48 0.22 2.79 12.97 13.51 0.95 0.95 72 0.69 4.01 17.22 18.79 0.95 0.94 96 2.41 24.37 0.92 120 1.07 29.30 0.91 144 3.40 35.68 0.87 168 6.13 41.80 0.83 192 6.48 47.62 0.78 216 5.13 51.88 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.69 -3.25 15.43 15.19 0.95 0.95 48 -5.55 -0.75 19.62 20.01 0.96 0.96 72 -7.98 -1.91 26.81 28.02 0.95 0.94 96 -7.34 36.13 0.94 120 -12.81 45.98 0.91 144 -14.00 54.29 0.88 168 -11.88 66.11 0.82 192 -11.64 73.25 0.79 216 -16.52 82.96 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.54 1.80 1.76 0.87 0.88 48 -0.46 -0.47 2.00 2.00 0.90 0.90 72 -0.40 -0.46 2.17 2.23 0.91 0.91 96 -0.47 2.46 0.90 120 -0.48 2.73 0.88 144 -0.46 3.00 0.85 168 -0.36 3.40 0.80 192 -0.26 3.69 0.75 216 -0.26 4.02 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 123 12 UTC = 121 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.10 0.95 0.98 0.88 0.88 48 -0.18 -0.11 1.10 1.15 0.91 0.91 72 -0.31 -0.23 1.34 1.45 0.92 0.90 96 -0.42 1.74 0.90 120 -0.60 2.10 0.86 144 -0.72 2.41 0.83 168 -0.69 2.78 0.76 192 -0.72 3.02 0.73 216 -0.77 3.30 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.18 1.19 1.19 0.87 0.87 48 0.05 0.17 1.45 1.47 0.87 0.87 72 -0.05 0.13 1.74 1.81 0.85 0.84 96 0.02 2.05 0.81 120 -0.11 2.36 0.77 144 -0.30 2.64 0.72 168 -0.32 3.01 0.66 192 -0.34 3.32 0.59 216 -0.51 3.39 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.58 3.81 3.62 48 -1.03 -0.72 4.29 4.07 72 -1.12 -0.76 4.84 4.77 96 -0.89 5.66 120 -0.84 6.35 144 -0.76 6.90 168 -0.92 7.52 192 -0.93 7.74 216 -1.01 8.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 117 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.54 3.90 3.78 48 -0.83 -0.59 4.77 4.63 72 -0.91 -0.57 5.66 5.77 96 -0.54 6.95 120 -0.52 7.83 144 -0.57 8.72 168 -0.62 9.54 192 -0.59 10.46 216 -0.71 11.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.71 4.87 4.84 48 -1.11 -1.03 6.32 6.33 72 -1.28 -1.22 7.77 7.98 96 -1.08 9.74 120 -1.00 11.45 144 -1.23 12.84 168 -1.42 14.86 192 -1.48 16.37 216 -1.71 17.93 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.59 -2.73 7.01 7.50 0.98 0.98 48 -3.09 0.03 9.74 10.22 0.97 0.98 72 -3.65 0.33 13.94 14.83 0.96 0.97 96 -1.91 21.96 0.95 120 -5.91 26.81 0.94 144 -5.84 34.68 0.89 168 -4.63 44.23 0.82 192 -4.27 47.49 0.77 216 -4.38 51.63 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.54 -8.52 11.45 12.97 0.98 0.98 48 -8.10 -6.39 15.55 14.95 0.98 0.98 72 -9.65 -6.05 21.34 22.27 0.97 0.97 96 -8.24 30.97 0.95 120 -13.06 39.86 0.94 144 -14.62 50.50 0.88 168 -11.72 63.34 0.85 192 -8.19 69.37 0.77 216 -9.60 74.03 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.56 -8.03 12.98 13.96 0.98 0.98 48 -6.95 -6.12 18.32 18.67 0.98 0.98 72 -9.23 -6.03 26.14 28.71 0.97 0.97 96 -7.43 38.17 0.96 120 -11.79 50.92 0.94 144 -14.73 65.89 0.89 168 -9.15 80.54 0.85 192 -1.65 93.00 0.78 216 -2.74 101.71 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.54 1.30 1.36 0.90 0.89 48 -0.69 -0.54 1.51 1.54 0.91 0.90 72 -0.71 -0.52 1.75 1.71 0.91 0.90 96 -0.47 2.02 0.86 120 -0.59 2.24 0.86 144 -0.70 2.74 0.77 168 -0.47 2.78 0.80 192 -0.43 3.23 0.71 216 -0.53 3.33 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 -0.07 0.99 0.94 0.91 0.90 48 0.00 -0.10 1.17 1.08 0.92 0.93 72 -0.05 -0.06 1.40 1.47 0.91 0.89 96 -0.01 1.67 0.90 120 -0.05 2.06 0.88 144 -0.14 2.40 0.81 168 -0.08 2.83 0.77 192 0.22 3.11 0.70 216 0.16 3.35 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.44 0.62 1.16 1.41 0.94 0.92 48 0.49 0.65 1.40 1.68 0.92 0.92 72 0.45 0.60 1.75 1.95 0.91 0.89 96 0.64 2.24 0.88 120 0.69 2.69 0.83 144 0.79 3.06 0.75 168 0.79 3.53 0.72 192 0.77 3.55 0.66 216 0.82 3.64 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.11 3.89 3.63 48 -0.39 -0.13 4.40 4.04 72 -0.42 -0.08 4.98 4.66 96 0.01 5.67 120 0.08 6.19 144 0.07 7.26 168 0.24 8.21 192 0.34 8.96 216 0.56 9.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.12 4.41 4.46 48 -0.35 -0.08 5.36 5.32 72 -0.28 -0.09 6.61 6.44 96 -0.09 7.83 120 0.08 8.77 144 0.18 10.40 168 0.10 11.45 192 0.10 12.85 216 0.35 13.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.37 5.03 4.98 48 -0.99 -0.71 6.47 6.31 72 -1.14 -0.85 8.40 8.13 96 -1.14 9.74 120 -0.93 11.20 144 -0.79 13.08 168 -1.04 15.46 192 -0.60 18.57 216 0.16 20.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.40 -2.36 9.47 9.62 0.67 0.67 48 -2.52 -2.99 10.42 10.57 0.77 0.77 72 -2.60 -4.01 11.09 11.76 0.76 0.75 96 -4.62 12.66 0.72 120 -4.12 12.84 0.69 144 -4.27 14.07 0.64 168 -4.66 15.55 0.58 192 -5.01 16.58 0.51 216 -5.55 16.81 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.34 -3.01 12.73 12.55 0.59 0.57 48 -3.22 -3.28 13.59 13.44 0.73 0.71 72 -3.90 -4.70 14.14 14.46 0.75 0.71 96 -6.12 15.18 0.65 120 -6.70 15.51 0.60 144 -7.61 16.71 0.60 168 -8.69 18.30 0.59 192 -9.37 19.34 0.54 216 -10.15 19.92 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.25 -6.64 16.83 16.38 0.54 0.52 48 -7.06 -7.56 18.18 17.94 0.67 0.68 72 -8.43 -9.31 19.28 19.53 0.71 0.71 96 -11.18 21.15 0.68 120 -12.57 22.80 0.66 144 -14.32 24.45 0.67 168 -16.23 26.08 0.67 192 -17.75 27.62 0.64 216 -18.73 29.25 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.25 1.11 1.21 0.49 0.52 48 -0.08 -0.20 1.12 1.24 0.61 0.63 72 -0.06 -0.17 1.16 1.26 0.62 0.66 96 -0.15 1.30 0.66 120 -0.16 1.36 0.64 144 -0.16 1.40 0.57 168 -0.16 1.46 0.52 192 -0.18 1.49 0.49 216 -0.18 1.59 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.06 0.90 0.87 0.49 0.51 48 -0.22 -0.09 0.95 0.92 0.60 0.57 72 -0.28 -0.14 1.00 0.98 0.62 0.59 96 -0.17 1.02 0.60 120 -0.22 1.06 0.61 144 -0.26 1.11 0.60 168 -0.32 1.15 0.57 192 -0.35 1.23 0.54 216 -0.37 1.26 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.04 0.73 0.66 0.55 0.51 48 0.15 0.03 0.78 0.71 0.60 0.61 72 0.13 0.06 0.82 0.76 0.60 0.61 96 0.05 0.79 0.58 120 -0.01 0.85 0.56 144 -0.06 0.92 0.57 168 -0.10 0.96 0.56 192 -0.14 0.99 0.55 216 -0.16 1.03 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.50 3.46 3.44 48 -0.67 -0.68 3.81 3.80 72 -0.85 -0.80 4.19 4.08 96 -0.89 4.50 120 -0.91 4.85 144 -1.01 5.06 168 -1.02 5.20 192 -1.03 5.46 216 -0.95 5.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.86 3.93 3.73 48 -1.05 -0.94 4.20 4.09 72 -1.13 -1.00 4.70 4.47 96 -0.99 4.86 120 -0.97 5.29 144 -0.97 5.64 168 -1.11 5.97 192 -1.20 6.40 216 -1.09 6.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.82 4.93 4.85 48 -1.02 -1.06 5.75 5.81 72 -1.08 -1.08 6.48 6.75 96 -1.12 7.50 120 -1.10 8.27 144 -0.95 8.95 168 -1.04 9.50 192 -1.23 9.79 216 -1.27 10.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.85 -1.80 8.89 8.71 0.98 0.97 48 -1.04 -1.49 12.43 12.40 0.97 0.97 72 0.21 -0.39 17.81 17.48 0.96 0.96 96 1.15 24.72 0.93 120 2.89 31.70 0.88 144 3.86 38.52 0.84 168 3.86 45.99 0.77 192 3.61 51.76 0.71 216 4.05 56.51 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 325 12 UTC = 316 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.11 -3.62 11.48 11.25 0.98 0.98 48 -3.81 -3.84 15.94 16.16 0.98 0.98 72 -3.17 -3.53 23.16 23.64 0.96 0.96 96 -3.09 33.28 0.93 120 -2.53 44.02 0.88 144 -1.77 54.12 0.83 168 -1.56 64.86 0.76 192 -2.10 73.83 0.71 216 -3.96 79.98 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 343 12 UTC = 330 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.33 -4.56 16.26 15.86 0.98 0.98 48 -5.70 -5.49 23.49 23.69 0.98 0.98 72 -6.57 -6.62 34.50 35.44 0.97 0.96 96 -8.45 50.15 0.94 120 -10.00 68.52 0.89 144 -9.33 84.19 0.83 168 -10.20 100.59 0.76 192 -13.11 112.19 0.72 216 -18.71 120.00 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 341 12 UTC = 329 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.49 1.60 1.63 0.88 0.89 48 -0.53 -0.53 1.80 1.83 0.92 0.92 72 -0.52 -0.52 2.00 2.06 0.92 0.92 96 -0.54 2.37 0.90 120 -0.57 2.76 0.87 144 -0.56 3.14 0.82 168 -0.51 3.61 0.76 192 -0.48 3.99 0.70 216 -0.52 4.33 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 398 12 UTC = 384 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.05 0.93 0.94 0.92 0.92 48 -0.10 -0.08 1.14 1.17 0.94 0.93 72 -0.16 -0.15 1.44 1.53 0.92 0.92 96 -0.23 1.94 0.89 120 -0.32 2.39 0.84 144 -0.36 2.77 0.79 168 -0.37 3.16 0.72 192 -0.42 3.42 0.68 216 -0.55 3.63 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 424 12 UTC = 408 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.34 1.23 1.23 0.91 0.91 48 0.29 0.35 1.52 1.54 0.90 0.90 72 0.26 0.34 1.87 1.94 0.88 0.87 96 0.29 2.30 0.83 120 0.22 2.63 0.79 144 0.17 2.98 0.74 168 0.17 3.33 0.69 192 0.09 3.56 0.65 216 -0.01 3.68 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 421 12 UTC = 405 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.63 3.67 3.60 48 -0.86 -0.75 4.18 4.14 72 -0.95 -0.86 4.90 4.91 96 -0.95 5.83 120 -0.94 6.70 144 -0.87 7.52 168 -0.95 8.21 192 -0.98 8.78 216 -1.03 9.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 372 12 UTC = 359 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.58 3.81 3.79 48 -0.77 -0.69 4.78 4.75 72 -0.89 -0.74 5.95 6.12 96 -0.82 7.62 120 -0.87 9.15 144 -0.86 10.60 168 -0.87 11.84 192 -0.86 12.87 216 -0.91 13.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.73 5.04 4.99 48 -1.00 -0.97 6.79 6.76 72 -1.21 -1.09 8.96 9.12 96 -1.10 11.76 120 -1.12 14.37 144 -1.15 17.02 168 -1.30 19.15 192 -1.59 20.64 216 -1.77 21.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 385 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.04 -0.28 8.65 9.79 0.97 0.97 48 -1.27 -0.26 12.44 13.19 0.97 0.97 72 -1.85 -0.65 18.05 18.79 0.95 0.95 96 -2.39 26.58 0.92 120 -3.66 35.22 0.88 144 -5.95 43.11 0.81 168 -7.85 49.41 0.75 192 -8.94 52.90 0.71 216 -7.97 56.47 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.88 -7.81 13.26 14.16 0.98 0.98 48 -8.60 -8.98 19.99 20.06 0.97 0.97 72 -10.25 -9.67 27.62 28.64 0.96 0.95 96 -11.31 38.56 0.93 120 -12.74 49.79 0.90 144 -16.21 63.17 0.82 168 -18.42 71.82 0.78 192 -17.82 78.05 0.71 216 -15.69 81.01 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.30 -9.79 17.82 18.99 0.98 0.98 48 -9.26 -10.39 26.03 27.36 0.97 0.97 72 -11.10 -10.83 36.32 38.34 0.96 0.95 96 -11.65 52.29 0.93 120 -13.03 67.11 0.91 144 -19.17 84.46 0.85 168 -20.89 94.84 0.81 192 -19.29 105.49 0.76 216 -17.54 115.29 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -1.07 1.80 1.97 0.90 0.91 48 -1.03 -1.14 2.04 2.18 0.92 0.92 72 -1.08 -1.17 2.31 2.41 0.92 0.91 96 -1.12 2.74 0.89 120 -1.18 3.16 0.87 144 -1.27 3.67 0.80 168 -1.11 3.87 0.77 192 -1.06 4.34 0.70 216 -0.93 4.58 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.16 1.07 1.05 0.92 0.92 48 -0.07 -0.19 1.33 1.27 0.92 0.93 72 -0.10 -0.16 1.65 1.56 0.91 0.90 96 -0.16 1.94 0.89 120 -0.18 2.35 0.87 144 -0.32 2.71 0.82 168 -0.34 3.03 0.77 192 -0.20 3.34 0.71 216 -0.19 3.60 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 56 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 0.43 1.27 1.30 0.92 0.91 48 0.38 0.47 1.54 1.52 0.92 0.91 72 0.37 0.46 1.85 1.74 0.90 0.90 96 0.56 2.08 0.87 120 0.54 2.47 0.82 144 0.52 2.78 0.76 168 0.47 3.03 0.73 192 0.44 3.25 0.69 216 0.35 3.36 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 56 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.65 4.51 4.43 48 -0.67 -0.67 5.09 4.94 72 -0.74 -0.65 5.70 5.60 96 -0.46 6.38 120 -0.39 7.31 144 -0.64 8.25 168 -0.47 8.87 192 -0.55 10.06 216 -0.59 10.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 0.04 4.67 4.87 48 -0.13 0.15 5.85 6.01 72 -0.01 0.29 7.16 7.24 96 0.57 8.80 120 0.78 10.24 144 0.56 11.63 168 0.50 12.56 192 0.25 13.98 216 -0.10 14.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.11 5.43 5.83 48 -0.54 0.04 7.15 7.35 72 -0.48 0.30 9.08 9.32 96 0.48 11.26 120 0.64 13.53 144 0.47 16.02 168 0.43 18.32 192 0.51 20.53 216 0.31 22.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 42 ---------------------------------------------------------