VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY OCTOBER 2011 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.13 0.89 0.90 0.99 0.99 17.7 18.2 48 0.22 0.20 1.54 1.51 0.98 0.98 26.8 27.4 72 0.31 0.26 2.29 2.28 0.95 0.95 34.9 35.9 96 0.34 3.15 0.90 44.1 120 0.39 4.32 0.82 53.1 144 0.46 5.54 0.70 61.2 168 0.49 6.56 0.58 68.2 192 0.46 7.52 0.47 73.8 216 0.47 8.26 0.37 77.6 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.49 6.85 6.69 1.00 1.00 10.9 10.8 48 -0.71 -0.85 13.14 13.09 0.99 0.99 18.8 18.8 72 -0.75 -1.10 21.23 21.39 0.97 0.97 26.9 27.2 96 -1.29 31.74 0.93 35.5 120 -1.60 44.41 0.85 43.8 144 -1.65 57.99 0.75 51.2 168 -1.72 71.01 0.63 58.3 192 -2.14 81.52 0.53 63.3 216 -1.97 90.52 0.42 67.1 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.12 9.04 9.21 1.00 1.00 8.9 8.9 48 -0.54 -0.68 17.84 18.04 0.99 0.99 15.5 15.5 72 -1.18 -1.43 29.19 29.38 0.97 0.97 22.7 22.7 96 -2.23 43.89 0.93 30.5 120 -3.04 61.71 0.87 38.1 144 -3.51 80.23 0.77 45.0 168 -3.63 98.41 0.67 51.6 192 -4.14 113.58 0.56 56.9 216 -4.64 126.39 0.46 60.5 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.01 0.48 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.04 0.84 0.85 0.97 0.97 72 -0.07 -0.07 1.26 1.27 0.94 0.93 96 -0.11 1.74 0.88 120 -0.15 2.26 0.79 144 -0.17 2.73 0.69 168 -0.18 3.18 0.59 192 -0.20 3.57 0.49 216 -0.24 3.85 0.41 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.06 0.61 0.60 0.98 0.98 48 0.08 0.07 1.01 1.00 0.94 0.95 72 0.07 0.08 1.42 1.40 0.89 0.89 96 0.07 1.82 0.81 120 0.06 2.24 0.71 144 0.05 2.59 0.60 168 0.08 2.91 0.49 192 0.10 3.20 0.39 216 0.10 3.36 0.33 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.07 2.16 2.16 48 -0.15 -0.14 3.73 3.75 72 -0.22 -0.21 5.32 5.38 96 -0.28 7.09 120 -0.30 8.89 144 -0.27 10.54 168 -0.21 12.15 192 -0.19 13.33 216 -0.22 14.25 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.25 3.28 3.29 48 -0.48 -0.43 5.45 5.51 72 -0.68 -0.58 7.76 7.87 96 -0.73 10.51 120 -0.78 13.34 144 -0.77 15.92 168 -0.71 18.46 192 -0.74 20.46 216 -0.88 21.91 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.79 3.14 3.15 0.98 0.98 26.7 27.0 48 -0.86 -0.86 4.45 4.40 0.95 0.96 35.7 36.1 72 -0.95 -0.93 5.27 5.35 0.93 0.94 40.7 40.9 96 -1.18 6.14 0.92 44.3 120 -1.53 7.04 0.89 47.1 144 -1.41 8.01 0.86 50.0 168 -0.93 9.15 0.81 52.9 192 -0.44 10.14 0.76 55.5 216 -0.27 11.09 0.72 57.9 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.49 0.18 4.44 4.51 0.98 0.98 21.3 21.3 48 -0.06 -0.31 6.78 6.91 0.96 0.96 30.0 29.7 72 -0.68 -0.91 8.61 8.92 0.93 0.93 35.6 35.3 96 -1.79 10.87 0.90 39.9 120 -2.96 13.22 0.85 44.0 144 -3.76 15.45 0.80 47.7 168 -4.04 17.21 0.75 51.0 192 -4.30 19.08 0.68 54.2 216 -4.88 21.89 0.59 57.9 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.00 0.41 0.42 0.97 0.97 48 0.07 0.07 0.67 0.68 0.92 0.93 72 0.10 0.08 0.83 0.83 0.87 0.90 96 0.08 0.95 0.87 120 0.06 1.05 0.84 144 0.04 1.13 0.81 168 0.02 1.21 0.78 192 0.00 1.31 0.75 216 -0.04 1.41 0.71 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.04 0.33 0.32 0.96 0.96 48 -0.02 -0.03 0.49 0.47 0.90 0.90 72 0.00 -0.01 0.59 0.58 0.86 0.85 96 -0.01 0.66 0.80 120 -0.03 0.71 0.77 144 -0.06 0.77 0.73 168 -0.08 0.83 0.68 192 -0.11 0.89 0.62 216 -0.14 0.94 0.58 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.02 1.64 1.63 48 -0.05 -0.04 2.44 2.41 72 -0.06 -0.06 2.91 2.87 96 -0.06 3.21 120 -0.07 3.53 144 -0.12 3.82 168 -0.20 4.10 192 -0.23 4.39 216 -0.18 4.64 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.31 3.11 3.16 48 -0.46 -0.50 4.56 4.64 72 -0.54 -0.57 5.66 5.72 96 -0.63 6.61 120 -0.68 7.43 144 -0.69 8.14 168 -0.70 8.86 192 -0.76 9.67 216 -0.85 10.49 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.02 1.04 1.04 0.99 0.99 14.1 14.1 48 -0.03 -0.02 1.99 1.98 0.98 0.98 24.4 24.3 72 -0.09 -0.05 3.04 3.02 0.95 0.95 33.2 32.9 96 -0.09 4.19 0.90 40.8 120 -0.09 5.55 0.83 48.2 144 -0.15 7.06 0.74 55.4 168 -0.24 8.37 0.64 60.8 192 -0.29 9.14 0.57 64.4 216 -0.30 9.87 0.50 67.4 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.03 9.52 9.54 1.00 1.00 11.0 11.0 48 -0.52 -0.41 18.68 18.83 0.99 0.98 19.6 19.7 72 -1.07 -0.73 29.48 29.48 0.96 0.96 27.2 27.3 96 -1.01 41.19 0.93 34.3 120 -1.13 55.75 0.86 41.3 144 -1.68 71.58 0.78 48.0 168 -2.43 86.81 0.68 53.5 192 -2.58 98.40 0.60 57.5 216 -2.37 108.12 0.52 60.6 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.45 12.10 12.23 1.00 1.00 9.1 9.1 48 -1.38 -1.33 23.51 23.66 0.99 0.99 15.6 15.7 72 -2.25 -2.11 37.45 37.47 0.97 0.96 22.0 22.1 96 -2.98 53.20 0.93 28.4 120 -3.46 72.10 0.87 34.9 144 -4.36 92.44 0.78 41.3 168 -5.16 113.45 0.67 47.1 192 -5.44 129.74 0.59 51.1 216 -5.30 144.10 0.51 54.6 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 0.57 0.57 0.99 0.99 48 -0.06 -0.06 1.04 1.05 0.96 0.96 72 -0.08 -0.07 1.52 1.52 0.91 0.91 96 -0.09 2.01 0.85 120 -0.12 2.50 0.76 144 -0.14 3.03 0.65 168 -0.15 3.52 0.53 192 -0.15 3.82 0.46 216 -0.15 4.12 0.38 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.01 0.61 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 0.01 0.00 1.04 1.06 0.94 0.94 72 0.02 -0.01 1.46 1.47 0.89 0.89 96 -0.01 1.86 0.82 120 0.00 2.25 0.73 144 0.01 2.61 0.64 168 0.01 2.87 0.56 192 0.03 3.10 0.49 216 0.04 3.28 0.43 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 2.62 2.63 48 -0.05 -0.06 4.76 4.79 72 -0.02 -0.05 6.70 6.70 96 -0.07 8.50 120 -0.10 10.44 144 -0.06 12.32 168 0.04 13.99 192 0.14 15.34 216 0.13 16.30 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.06 3.60 3.64 48 -0.12 -0.10 6.15 6.20 72 -0.10 -0.13 8.69 8.63 96 -0.14 11.21 120 -0.16 14.00 144 -0.12 16.78 168 0.01 19.43 192 0.15 21.57 216 0.18 23.46 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.41 -0.10 7.67 7.60 0.98 0.98 48 1.14 2.10 11.27 11.69 0.98 0.98 72 4.63 3.74 16.77 17.44 0.97 0.97 96 4.29 23.57 0.95 120 5.36 33.18 0.91 144 7.96 40.57 0.86 168 13.42 49.44 0.77 192 15.96 55.83 0.74 216 14.22 62.92 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.22 -2.79 10.14 9.82 0.99 0.99 48 -0.69 -0.61 14.59 15.35 0.98 0.98 72 2.66 0.78 22.38 22.59 0.98 0.98 96 -0.04 33.95 0.96 120 -0.59 47.10 0.92 144 2.31 59.03 0.88 168 9.76 73.16 0.82 192 11.87 87.53 0.75 216 9.49 100.52 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.86 -1.42 13.63 13.22 0.99 0.99 48 1.77 1.58 21.32 22.15 0.99 0.99 72 5.36 3.56 34.34 33.10 0.98 0.98 96 1.86 47.67 0.96 120 -0.06 66.98 0.93 144 3.91 83.60 0.89 168 14.35 104.36 0.84 192 18.72 128.86 0.75 216 13.71 149.15 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.66 1.53 1.71 0.90 0.91 48 -0.56 -0.71 1.77 1.90 0.93 0.93 72 -0.57 -0.78 2.01 2.15 0.94 0.94 96 -0.87 2.55 0.92 120 -0.94 3.07 0.89 144 -0.91 3.46 0.86 168 -0.72 3.98 0.79 192 -0.83 4.58 0.73 216 -0.82 4.85 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.00 0.90 0.91 0.95 0.95 48 0.08 0.02 1.19 1.17 0.95 0.95 72 0.11 0.00 1.55 1.53 0.94 0.94 96 -0.05 1.99 0.90 120 -0.19 2.54 0.85 144 -0.12 2.92 0.81 168 0.00 3.37 0.75 192 0.00 3.98 0.69 216 -0.12 4.35 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.43 0.46 1.10 1.16 0.94 0.93 48 0.46 0.51 1.38 1.43 0.93 0.93 72 0.46 0.54 1.71 1.71 0.91 0.91 96 0.52 2.12 0.86 120 0.54 2.55 0.80 144 0.60 2.69 0.78 168 0.73 3.05 0.70 192 0.90 3.37 0.66 216 0.84 3.62 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.79 3.80 4.00 48 -0.74 -0.91 4.31 4.63 72 -0.81 -0.92 4.95 5.25 96 -1.04 6.07 120 -1.01 7.21 144 -0.98 8.01 168 -1.05 9.14 192 -1.13 9.88 216 -1.23 10.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.67 4.07 4.18 48 -0.58 -0.76 5.09 5.10 72 -0.58 -0.78 6.40 6.29 96 -0.89 8.44 120 -1.00 10.42 144 -0.95 11.54 168 -0.97 13.46 192 -1.13 15.53 216 -1.74 16.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.77 5.50 5.46 48 -0.98 -0.80 7.11 7.14 72 -1.15 -0.79 9.46 9.38 96 -0.97 12.29 120 -0.88 15.51 144 -1.03 17.59 168 -1.31 20.80 192 -1.24 24.51 216 -2.03 26.36 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.31 -4.71 9.24 8.89 0.98 0.98 48 -4.10 -6.29 11.53 12.29 0.98 0.98 72 -3.87 -5.58 15.96 15.82 0.98 0.98 96 -5.52 22.84 0.96 120 -7.52 29.22 0.92 144 -7.65 38.34 0.83 168 -8.23 56.36 0.68 192 -11.49 68.32 0.58 216 -12.52 71.39 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.23 -7.79 13.17 11.83 0.99 0.99 48 -8.80 -10.17 17.20 17.28 0.99 0.99 72 -8.04 -9.08 23.94 22.48 0.98 0.99 96 -7.99 34.86 0.97 120 -7.94 46.57 0.92 144 -7.31 59.28 0.81 168 -3.70 81.07 0.70 192 -5.84 102.59 0.60 216 -8.13 113.71 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.80 -8.23 16.44 15.16 0.99 0.99 48 -10.54 -11.28 24.05 23.00 0.99 0.99 72 -10.61 -10.96 34.96 32.62 0.98 0.99 96 -10.38 48.57 0.97 120 -9.20 67.16 0.92 144 -7.93 84.30 0.85 168 -1.00 112.28 0.75 192 -0.61 142.56 0.63 216 -0.89 159.87 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.12 1.26 1.25 0.90 0.89 48 -0.37 -0.20 1.43 1.43 0.91 0.91 72 -0.33 -0.16 1.64 1.59 0.93 0.92 96 -0.12 2.00 0.90 120 0.04 2.46 0.86 144 0.18 2.86 0.78 168 0.44 3.40 0.69 192 0.57 4.03 0.62 216 0.53 4.51 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.04 0.82 0.83 0.95 0.94 48 -0.08 -0.03 1.07 1.06 0.95 0.94 72 -0.06 -0.02 1.46 1.33 0.95 0.95 96 0.00 1.93 0.91 120 0.13 2.27 0.87 144 0.17 2.72 0.79 168 0.39 3.21 0.72 192 0.48 3.86 0.61 216 0.53 4.23 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.42 0.45 1.02 1.05 0.91 0.91 48 0.39 0.42 1.23 1.22 0.90 0.90 72 0.34 0.40 1.49 1.41 0.86 0.88 96 0.35 1.83 0.78 120 0.40 2.15 0.73 144 0.50 2.41 0.63 168 0.52 2.70 0.55 192 0.56 3.01 0.47 216 0.70 3.09 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.56 3.72 3.77 48 -0.50 -0.59 4.14 4.21 72 -0.47 -0.61 4.70 4.71 96 -0.66 5.63 120 -0.69 6.33 144 -0.71 7.43 168 -0.82 9.23 192 -0.76 10.35 216 -0.82 10.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.43 3.95 3.84 48 -0.49 -0.43 4.95 4.75 72 -0.50 -0.54 6.29 5.79 96 -0.55 7.78 120 -0.58 9.46 144 -0.54 11.49 168 -0.68 14.59 192 -0.53 16.45 216 -0.25 17.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.50 5.07 5.02 48 -0.58 -0.55 6.84 6.68 72 -0.64 -0.82 9.35 8.76 96 -0.95 11.45 120 -1.44 14.80 144 -0.83 17.94 168 -0.85 22.18 192 -0.22 25.95 216 0.11 27.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.63 1.56 9.94 8.04 0.96 0.97 48 2.37 1.96 11.80 10.01 0.97 0.97 72 0.54 1.10 13.62 12.03 0.97 0.97 96 -0.41 14.86 0.95 120 -0.49 21.31 0.92 144 -1.54 25.03 0.89 168 -3.07 27.23 0.86 192 -1.79 29.64 0.81 216 1.67 34.54 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.39 -0.17 10.86 10.41 0.97 0.97 48 -2.09 0.30 13.45 12.96 0.98 0.98 72 -4.40 -0.98 18.24 17.08 0.97 0.97 96 -3.11 23.74 0.95 120 -3.53 31.08 0.91 144 -5.23 38.63 0.86 168 -7.81 45.35 0.82 192 -8.93 49.78 0.76 216 -7.03 57.12 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.07 -2.21 16.19 15.34 0.97 0.97 48 -5.84 -1.25 20.89 19.91 0.98 0.98 72 -9.06 -3.53 28.34 26.28 0.97 0.97 96 -6.82 35.49 0.95 120 -8.01 45.78 0.92 144 -9.98 59.78 0.88 168 -14.95 70.64 0.84 192 -19.16 76.08 0.80 216 -19.41 88.71 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.68 1.83 1.84 0.89 0.89 48 -0.71 -0.76 2.04 2.05 0.92 0.92 72 -0.76 -0.81 2.27 2.27 0.92 0.92 96 -0.80 2.50 0.92 120 -0.79 2.97 0.88 144 -0.86 3.30 0.85 168 -0.93 3.68 0.79 192 -1.01 4.09 0.72 216 -1.07 4.40 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 123 12 UTC = 122 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.16 0.98 0.98 0.93 0.93 48 -0.28 -0.19 1.18 1.15 0.94 0.95 72 -0.34 -0.26 1.47 1.40 0.94 0.94 96 -0.31 1.74 0.92 120 -0.36 2.21 0.87 144 -0.46 2.64 0.82 168 -0.61 3.02 0.77 192 -0.70 3.14 0.74 216 -0.79 3.41 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.34 1.25 1.26 0.90 0.89 48 0.39 0.42 1.51 1.48 0.90 0.89 72 0.38 0.46 1.79 1.77 0.87 0.87 96 0.42 2.07 0.83 120 0.41 2.40 0.79 144 0.46 2.65 0.75 168 0.42 2.85 0.71 192 0.37 2.94 0.69 216 0.31 3.02 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.74 3.79 3.56 48 -0.97 -0.86 4.18 3.94 72 -1.09 -0.92 4.67 4.41 96 -0.94 5.01 120 -0.86 5.82 144 -0.97 6.44 168 -1.10 7.01 192 -1.10 7.29 216 -1.10 7.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 121 12 UTC = 120 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.55 4.00 4.02 48 -0.66 -0.49 4.84 4.83 72 -0.67 -0.52 5.95 5.92 96 -0.53 7.06 120 -0.45 8.53 144 -0.25 9.46 168 -0.11 10.44 192 -0.13 11.13 216 -0.29 11.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.48 5.12 5.18 48 -0.80 -0.72 6.50 6.56 72 -0.88 -0.78 8.01 8.04 96 -0.85 9.80 120 -0.87 11.98 144 -0.63 13.97 168 -0.32 15.28 192 -0.52 16.18 216 -0.89 17.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.49 -2.69 6.63 7.56 0.97 0.98 48 -1.75 -2.24 9.92 11.38 0.97 0.97 72 -2.81 -2.14 13.49 14.92 0.96 0.97 96 -3.24 20.73 0.93 120 -2.55 25.67 0.90 144 -3.38 29.75 0.83 168 -2.91 36.37 0.76 192 -3.79 43.14 0.71 216 -6.77 54.73 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.58 -6.66 9.46 11.87 0.97 0.97 48 -4.59 -6.46 14.09 16.05 0.97 0.97 72 -5.99 -6.50 20.09 21.67 0.95 0.96 96 -7.59 29.29 0.93 120 -8.35 37.05 0.89 144 -9.97 43.55 0.87 168 -10.81 52.75 0.82 192 -12.86 64.64 0.71 216 -13.77 78.36 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.68 -8.74 14.21 16.53 0.97 0.97 48 -7.68 -11.61 21.12 23.56 0.97 0.97 72 -11.19 -13.66 30.45 32.69 0.95 0.95 96 -15.52 43.65 0.92 120 -17.26 54.57 0.88 144 -19.37 63.86 0.85 168 -20.59 74.54 0.82 192 -21.70 91.51 0.71 216 -21.73 104.34 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.31 1.25 1.20 0.87 0.87 48 -0.19 -0.31 1.44 1.35 0.91 0.93 72 -0.20 -0.30 1.71 1.58 0.89 0.91 96 -0.23 1.85 0.88 120 -0.39 2.31 0.79 144 -0.35 2.57 0.79 168 -0.50 2.86 0.73 192 -0.68 3.30 0.64 216 -0.68 3.42 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.91 48 -0.11 -0.14 1.08 1.02 0.89 0.91 72 -0.16 -0.19 1.30 1.35 0.88 0.89 96 -0.22 1.73 0.87 120 -0.29 2.16 0.77 144 -0.35 2.41 0.73 168 -0.37 2.57 0.76 192 -0.42 2.93 0.66 216 -0.37 3.22 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 0.40 1.16 1.18 0.87 0.90 48 0.32 0.35 1.43 1.39 0.88 0.89 72 0.26 0.27 1.65 1.67 0.85 0.88 96 0.30 1.96 0.85 120 0.27 2.33 0.83 144 0.24 2.59 0.81 168 0.23 2.69 0.80 192 0.43 3.00 0.73 216 0.59 3.49 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.20 3.91 3.66 48 -0.21 -0.20 4.50 4.22 72 -0.28 -0.21 5.20 4.73 96 -0.34 5.61 120 -0.24 6.40 144 -0.18 6.75 168 0.01 7.65 192 -0.02 8.42 216 0.15 9.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.57 4.33 4.45 48 -0.47 -0.59 5.37 5.41 72 -0.57 -0.45 6.31 6.47 96 -0.55 7.47 120 -0.32 8.61 144 -0.19 9.76 168 0.11 10.89 192 -0.14 12.19 216 -0.07 13.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.69 5.92 6.11 48 -0.95 -1.02 7.60 7.81 72 -1.04 -0.97 9.51 9.25 96 -1.06 11.24 120 -0.97 13.27 144 -0.93 15.04 168 -0.76 16.64 192 -0.61 18.79 216 -0.58 22.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.22 -2.92 8.95 8.79 0.71 0.71 48 -3.49 -3.30 9.43 9.41 0.80 0.80 72 -4.13 -3.95 9.84 10.09 0.83 0.81 96 -4.68 10.70 0.82 120 -4.69 11.15 0.83 144 -4.35 11.68 0.81 168 -3.80 12.40 0.79 192 -3.20 13.05 0.77 216 -3.38 13.93 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.74 -3.62 10.63 10.84 0.58 0.60 48 -3.50 -3.63 10.90 11.35 0.73 0.73 72 -4.44 -4.44 11.46 11.91 0.76 0.75 96 -5.69 12.65 0.73 120 -6.39 13.50 0.72 144 -6.70 14.36 0.70 168 -6.75 14.94 0.69 192 -6.89 15.85 0.64 216 -7.39 16.98 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.40 -7.56 15.30 14.97 0.59 0.57 48 -7.59 -8.18 15.97 15.91 0.73 0.70 72 -8.17 -8.80 16.84 16.84 0.76 0.74 96 -9.93 18.19 0.74 120 -10.83 19.40 0.74 144 -11.46 21.10 0.72 168 -11.64 22.22 0.72 192 -12.11 23.61 0.70 216 -13.28 25.60 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 -0.01 1.03 1.05 0.51 0.46 48 0.16 0.08 1.09 1.09 0.59 0.58 72 0.17 0.11 1.13 1.12 0.62 0.61 96 0.12 1.14 0.62 120 0.11 1.18 0.62 144 0.08 1.22 0.64 168 0.02 1.29 0.61 192 -0.06 1.30 0.59 216 -0.13 1.37 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.17 0.80 0.82 0.52 0.53 48 -0.25 -0.21 0.84 0.86 0.60 0.61 72 -0.27 -0.23 0.88 0.92 0.62 0.60 96 -0.26 0.96 0.61 120 -0.28 0.98 0.63 144 -0.32 1.03 0.63 168 -0.35 1.08 0.63 192 -0.35 1.12 0.62 216 -0.36 1.18 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.07 0.70 0.61 0.51 0.54 48 0.12 0.09 0.76 0.67 0.57 0.63 72 0.17 0.14 0.81 0.72 0.60 0.64 96 0.14 0.77 0.65 120 0.12 0.80 0.65 144 0.11 0.82 0.68 168 0.12 0.86 0.67 192 0.07 0.92 0.65 216 0.03 0.97 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.51 3.38 3.52 48 -0.57 -0.59 3.79 3.92 72 -0.56 -0.61 4.06 4.22 96 -0.61 4.38 120 -0.61 4.61 144 -0.65 4.78 168 -0.78 5.21 192 -0.87 5.40 216 -0.81 5.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.05 -1.10 3.86 3.85 48 -1.23 -1.26 4.20 4.23 72 -1.36 -1.32 4.48 4.56 96 -1.34 4.88 120 -1.31 5.18 144 -1.34 5.57 168 -1.38 5.98 192 -1.42 6.30 216 -1.37 6.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.01 -0.86 4.75 4.91 48 -1.29 -1.09 5.49 5.83 72 -1.50 -1.25 6.37 6.53 96 -1.46 7.19 120 -1.47 7.93 144 -1.43 8.52 168 -1.32 9.38 192 -1.46 10.16 216 -1.39 10.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -1.10 9.16 8.56 0.98 0.98 48 -0.14 -0.79 12.31 12.12 0.98 0.98 72 0.47 -0.37 17.19 16.91 0.97 0.97 96 -0.38 23.05 0.95 120 0.01 31.81 0.91 144 1.31 39.62 0.87 168 2.12 49.23 0.80 192 2.53 57.68 0.74 216 2.12 63.40 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 322 12 UTC = 315 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.79 -3.17 11.69 11.17 0.98 0.98 48 -3.53 -3.18 15.99 15.93 0.98 0.98 72 -3.35 -3.32 23.15 22.58 0.98 0.98 96 -3.94 32.98 0.96 120 -3.85 44.64 0.92 144 -2.68 56.47 0.88 168 -0.84 70.79 0.82 192 -0.82 85.01 0.75 216 -2.22 95.73 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 338 12 UTC = 331 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.61 -3.48 15.80 15.29 0.99 0.99 48 -4.27 -3.33 22.46 22.28 0.99 0.98 72 -4.85 -3.84 33.27 31.88 0.98 0.98 96 -5.36 45.22 0.96 120 -5.79 62.05 0.93 144 -4.10 79.27 0.89 168 -1.28 99.59 0.83 192 -1.22 121.21 0.76 216 -3.66 137.16 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 338 12 UTC = 330 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.48 1.58 1.63 0.90 0.90 48 -0.56 -0.56 1.80 1.84 0.93 0.93 72 -0.60 -0.61 2.05 2.08 0.93 0.93 96 -0.64 2.40 0.92 120 -0.62 2.88 0.88 144 -0.61 3.26 0.85 168 -0.54 3.74 0.79 192 -0.55 4.28 0.73 216 -0.56 4.58 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 392 12 UTC = 383 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 0.92 0.92 0.95 0.95 48 -0.12 -0.10 1.17 1.15 0.95 0.95 72 -0.14 -0.14 1.53 1.47 0.94 0.95 96 -0.18 1.94 0.92 120 -0.20 2.42 0.87 144 -0.21 2.89 0.83 168 -0.18 3.33 0.77 192 -0.19 3.80 0.71 216 -0.29 4.11 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 419 12 UTC = 408 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.35 0.37 1.20 1.23 0.92 0.92 48 0.39 0.41 1.48 1.49 0.92 0.92 72 0.37 0.42 1.82 1.81 0.89 0.89 96 0.40 2.20 0.86 120 0.39 2.57 0.81 144 0.42 2.86 0.77 168 0.46 3.17 0.71 192 0.48 3.41 0.67 216 0.47 3.54 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 415 12 UTC = 404 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.67 3.77 3.74 48 -0.78 -0.75 4.24 4.26 72 -0.85 -0.80 4.90 4.90 96 -0.84 5.66 120 -0.84 6.62 144 -0.89 7.49 168 -0.95 8.52 192 -0.89 9.25 216 -0.92 9.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 369 12 UTC = 360 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.57 4.01 4.00 48 -0.61 -0.59 5.00 4.95 72 -0.63 -0.62 6.33 6.17 96 -0.67 7.83 120 -0.69 9.57 144 -0.59 11.03 168 -0.50 12.83 192 -0.54 14.26 216 -0.76 15.08 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 387 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.57 5.02 5.05 48 -0.77 -0.74 6.61 6.61 72 -0.90 -0.82 8.67 8.56 96 -0.93 10.96 120 -1.01 13.82 144 -0.83 16.33 168 -0.74 18.98 192 -0.75 21.49 216 -1.20 22.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 386 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -1.08 8.46 9.63 0.97 0.97 48 -0.67 -1.57 12.03 13.26 0.97 0.97 72 -2.30 -2.92 16.17 17.97 0.96 0.95 96 -4.49 24.31 0.92 120 -3.56 29.82 0.88 144 -2.78 36.93 0.84 168 -2.21 43.16 0.81 192 -5.26 49.40 0.75 216 -5.81 57.01 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.36 -5.71 11.04 13.58 0.98 0.97 48 -4.13 -6.48 16.65 19.31 0.97 0.97 72 -6.00 -7.86 23.20 27.03 0.96 0.95 96 -9.37 34.98 0.92 120 -9.92 45.67 0.87 144 -8.63 55.02 0.85 168 -7.67 64.40 0.82 192 -12.59 73.11 0.76 216 -11.87 84.49 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.66 -7.54 16.31 18.77 0.98 0.97 48 -8.29 -10.31 23.76 26.93 0.97 0.97 72 -12.03 -13.20 33.64 37.40 0.96 0.95 96 -16.22 49.82 0.93 120 -17.60 65.94 0.87 144 -17.32 78.42 0.83 168 -16.82 93.31 0.80 192 -21.81 104.09 0.76 216 -19.84 114.89 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.45 1.57 1.54 0.88 0.87 48 -0.43 -0.45 1.78 1.70 0.91 0.91 72 -0.45 -0.47 2.04 1.96 0.90 0.89 96 -0.49 2.33 0.85 120 -0.61 2.76 0.81 144 -0.52 3.07 0.81 168 -0.57 3.51 0.75 192 -0.67 3.80 0.69 216 -0.65 4.23 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.07 0.97 0.99 0.91 0.93 48 -0.06 -0.14 1.19 1.19 0.91 0.93 72 -0.10 -0.18 1.46 1.50 0.89 0.90 96 -0.18 1.88 0.87 120 -0.25 2.29 0.81 144 -0.24 2.68 0.79 168 -0.24 3.07 0.73 192 -0.33 3.29 0.71 216 -0.26 3.47 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 56 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.28 1.22 1.24 0.89 0.89 48 0.18 0.23 1.52 1.45 0.89 0.89 72 0.12 0.17 1.72 1.78 0.88 0.85 96 0.10 2.07 0.82 120 0.04 2.35 0.78 144 -0.08 2.61 0.75 168 -0.15 2.77 0.74 192 -0.05 3.03 0.71 216 0.01 3.34 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 55 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.66 4.45 4.31 48 -0.45 -0.68 5.03 4.95 72 -0.48 -0.65 5.71 5.59 96 -0.63 6.47 120 -0.59 7.26 144 -0.58 7.86 168 -0.45 9.15 192 -0.43 9.64 216 -0.41 10.02 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.39 4.71 4.82 48 -0.38 -0.35 5.86 5.81 72 -0.34 -0.25 6.81 7.03 96 -0.17 8.32 120 0.07 9.86 144 0.21 11.32 168 0.02 12.61 192 0.05 13.93 216 0.07 14.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2011 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.52 6.04 6.25 48 -0.61 -0.64 7.68 7.83 72 -0.52 -0.43 9.47 9.35 96 -0.51 11.63 120 -0.28 13.93 144 0.10 16.57 168 0.21 18.42 192 0.48 20.34 216 0.23 22.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 45 ---------------------------------------------------------