VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY FEBRUARY 2012 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.08 1.13 1.17 0.99 0.99 18.0 18.4 48 0.07 0.08 1.92 1.98 0.98 0.98 27.5 27.8 72 0.06 0.05 2.86 2.90 0.96 0.96 36.2 36.5 96 0.01 3.98 0.92 45.2 120 -0.02 5.20 0.85 53.2 144 -0.04 6.42 0.77 60.7 168 -0.09 7.57 0.67 67.2 192 -0.07 8.51 0.59 71.2 216 -0.06 9.34 0.51 74.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.34 -1.37 8.19 8.33 1.00 1.00 10.3 10.4 48 -2.27 -2.37 16.27 16.50 0.99 0.99 18.7 18.7 72 -3.04 -3.30 26.15 26.15 0.97 0.97 26.7 26.5 96 -4.36 38.38 0.93 34.4 120 -5.37 52.22 0.87 41.4 144 -6.31 66.51 0.79 48.1 168 -7.10 79.90 0.69 53.8 192 -7.66 91.62 0.59 58.3 216 -8.51 100.17 0.52 61.6 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.62 -1.71 9.85 9.98 1.00 1.00 7.9 7.9 48 -3.13 -3.29 19.94 20.28 0.99 0.99 13.6 13.7 72 -4.46 -4.99 32.13 31.83 0.97 0.97 19.7 19.6 96 -6.65 47.49 0.94 26.0 120 -8.37 64.65 0.89 31.8 144 -10.48 83.52 0.81 37.9 168 -11.35 101.33 0.72 43.4 192 -11.63 116.83 0.63 47.9 216 -13.68 129.49 0.55 51.5 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.06 0.57 0.58 0.99 0.99 48 -0.10 -0.12 1.05 1.06 0.97 0.97 72 -0.16 -0.18 1.52 1.53 0.93 0.93 96 -0.24 2.06 0.88 120 -0.30 2.56 0.81 144 -0.38 3.06 0.73 168 -0.40 3.54 0.64 192 -0.43 3.95 0.55 216 -0.52 4.31 0.46 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.05 0.70 0.70 0.99 0.99 48 0.08 0.08 1.19 1.19 0.96 0.96 72 0.10 0.09 1.67 1.65 0.92 0.92 96 0.11 2.12 0.86 120 0.10 2.52 0.80 144 0.05 2.91 0.73 168 0.04 3.26 0.66 192 0.07 3.54 0.60 216 0.07 3.80 0.53 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.03 2.57 2.61 48 -0.09 -0.08 4.67 4.65 72 -0.15 -0.14 6.60 6.60 96 -0.18 8.56 120 -0.16 10.43 144 -0.17 12.22 168 -0.15 13.79 192 -0.12 15.14 216 -0.15 16.08 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.13 3.41 3.44 48 -0.22 -0.14 5.82 5.88 72 -0.23 -0.15 8.30 8.18 96 -0.17 10.83 120 -0.17 13.21 144 -0.22 15.84 168 -0.27 18.19 192 -0.28 20.17 216 -0.36 21.68 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.22 3.18 3.23 0.98 0.98 26.5 26.5 48 -0.19 -0.05 4.84 4.67 0.95 0.95 35.1 35.0 72 0.06 0.19 5.93 5.95 0.92 0.93 40.3 40.1 96 0.54 7.07 0.90 44.0 120 0.65 8.00 0.87 47.1 144 0.52 8.81 0.85 49.9 168 0.69 9.53 0.82 52.1 192 0.61 10.30 0.79 54.6 216 0.58 11.17 0.76 57.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.60 0.50 4.81 4.99 0.99 0.99 20.6 20.8 48 0.66 0.67 7.88 8.35 0.97 0.97 29.0 29.2 72 0.43 0.41 10.48 10.96 0.95 0.95 34.9 35.0 96 -0.12 13.23 0.92 39.4 120 -0.90 15.69 0.88 43.2 144 -1.97 18.46 0.83 47.1 168 -3.23 20.98 0.78 50.7 192 -4.57 23.41 0.73 53.9 216 -5.49 25.44 0.68 56.6 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.02 0.39 0.41 0.96 0.97 48 0.05 0.02 0.66 0.67 0.90 0.91 72 0.07 0.04 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.87 96 0.04 0.96 0.83 120 0.04 1.06 0.79 144 0.02 1.14 0.75 168 -0.01 1.26 0.70 192 -0.03 1.37 0.64 216 -0.03 1.51 0.57 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.35 0.35 0.97 0.97 48 0.05 0.04 0.53 0.54 0.93 0.93 72 0.08 0.06 0.66 0.67 0.88 0.89 96 0.05 0.78 0.85 120 0.05 0.87 0.80 144 0.03 0.94 0.77 168 -0.01 1.00 0.73 192 -0.05 1.09 0.67 216 -0.08 1.16 0.62 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.05 1.55 1.52 48 0.11 0.10 2.36 2.31 72 0.11 0.11 2.90 2.83 96 0.10 3.26 120 0.09 3.58 144 0.08 3.88 168 0.09 4.13 192 0.08 4.40 216 0.07 4.69 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.38 3.35 3.34 48 -0.56 -0.56 4.99 4.98 72 -0.69 -0.69 6.20 6.24 96 -0.86 7.17 120 -0.99 7.93 144 -1.14 8.71 168 -1.20 9.43 192 -1.13 10.24 216 -1.04 10.99 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.91 0.90 0.99 0.99 14.7 14.5 48 -0.04 -0.05 1.76 1.71 0.98 0.98 25.1 24.8 72 -0.07 -0.06 2.77 2.71 0.95 0.95 35.0 34.6 96 -0.09 3.93 0.89 44.2 120 -0.09 5.24 0.80 52.3 144 -0.09 6.44 0.70 59.6 168 -0.11 7.44 0.60 64.3 192 -0.13 8.07 0.52 67.6 216 -0.11 8.55 0.45 70.0 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.03 0.92 8.50 8.36 1.00 1.00 11.0 10.9 48 1.70 1.49 17.07 16.94 0.99 0.99 19.9 19.7 72 1.73 1.70 27.77 27.56 0.96 0.96 28.4 28.6 96 1.67 41.27 0.91 37.5 120 1.46 55.76 0.84 45.2 144 1.08 69.12 0.75 52.0 168 0.43 81.57 0.64 57.3 192 0.00 90.50 0.55 60.9 216 -0.62 96.60 0.48 63.7 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 -0.04 11.28 11.01 1.00 1.00 9.9 9.8 48 -0.07 -0.33 22.39 22.41 0.99 0.99 17.4 17.4 72 -0.80 -0.70 36.89 36.62 0.96 0.96 25.2 25.3 96 -1.45 54.69 0.91 33.6 120 -2.37 73.32 0.85 41.0 144 -3.67 91.71 0.76 47.6 168 -5.28 109.23 0.65 53.1 192 -6.81 123.15 0.55 57.5 216 -8.64 131.50 0.48 60.0 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 -0.01 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.96 72 -0.02 -0.01 1.48 1.47 0.91 0.91 96 -0.03 2.01 0.83 120 -0.05 2.52 0.74 144 -0.07 2.97 0.64 168 -0.09 3.37 0.53 192 -0.12 3.69 0.43 216 -0.16 3.88 0.37 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 0.63 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 -0.12 -0.13 1.15 1.15 0.95 0.95 72 -0.18 -0.18 1.67 1.68 0.89 0.88 96 -0.24 2.21 0.80 120 -0.30 2.68 0.70 144 -0.36 3.08 0.60 168 -0.41 3.44 0.50 192 -0.47 3.66 0.43 216 -0.54 3.87 0.37 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.14 2.31 2.30 48 -0.25 -0.25 4.25 4.22 72 -0.35 -0.34 6.12 6.15 96 -0.46 8.15 120 -0.57 9.97 144 -0.63 11.60 168 -0.64 12.97 192 -0.73 13.92 216 -0.79 14.59 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.22 3.47 3.41 48 -0.39 -0.38 6.13 6.09 72 -0.50 -0.49 8.81 8.81 96 -0.64 11.70 120 -0.80 14.29 144 -0.87 16.88 168 -0.89 19.18 192 -0.94 20.88 216 -1.07 21.93 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.62 -2.18 8.80 8.77 0.98 0.99 48 -3.52 -2.85 13.45 13.67 0.98 0.98 72 -3.25 -2.48 20.41 20.60 0.95 0.95 96 -2.13 28.51 0.91 120 -0.57 36.56 0.87 144 -2.30 44.99 0.81 168 -9.73 55.59 0.73 192 -10.05 60.04 0.67 216 -8.58 61.23 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.87 -5.26 11.56 12.30 0.99 0.99 48 -6.91 -6.79 19.99 20.20 0.98 0.98 72 -7.38 -7.26 31.63 32.28 0.95 0.95 96 -6.46 44.47 0.92 120 -2.95 55.41 0.87 144 -3.61 69.30 0.81 168 -8.70 86.30 0.73 192 -8.49 94.93 0.70 216 -7.68 102.37 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.59 -5.70 14.23 15.00 0.99 0.99 48 -7.91 -8.01 26.10 27.22 0.98 0.98 72 -8.27 -9.62 43.38 42.96 0.95 0.95 96 -8.87 61.12 0.92 120 -3.82 74.98 0.89 144 -2.10 93.77 0.84 168 -4.60 115.42 0.77 192 -2.25 130.23 0.71 216 -1.56 143.23 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.59 1.63 1.72 0.93 0.93 48 -0.54 -0.68 1.93 1.98 0.94 0.94 72 -0.60 -0.69 2.36 2.42 0.91 0.91 96 -0.63 2.89 0.88 120 -0.43 3.43 0.84 144 -0.33 3.95 0.78 168 -0.12 4.83 0.68 192 0.00 5.64 0.60 216 0.10 6.11 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.03 0.97 0.99 0.95 0.95 48 -0.04 -0.05 1.34 1.37 0.95 0.95 72 -0.08 -0.10 1.88 1.92 0.91 0.91 96 -0.11 2.46 0.88 120 -0.04 2.89 0.82 144 -0.06 3.53 0.75 168 0.02 4.22 0.68 192 0.08 4.67 0.63 216 0.01 5.06 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.51 0.49 1.38 1.39 0.94 0.94 48 0.47 0.48 1.74 1.78 0.93 0.92 72 0.46 0.43 2.13 2.20 0.90 0.89 96 0.51 2.62 0.86 120 0.50 2.97 0.82 144 0.65 3.42 0.75 168 0.84 3.91 0.67 192 1.15 4.18 0.66 216 1.26 4.44 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.92 4.06 4.12 48 -0.98 -1.04 4.82 4.88 72 -1.06 -1.18 5.85 5.82 96 -1.17 6.88 120 -1.09 7.86 144 -0.90 9.02 168 -0.47 10.51 192 -0.48 11.14 216 -0.40 11.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.59 4.78 4.90 48 -0.73 -0.60 6.39 6.54 72 -0.76 -0.74 8.51 8.49 96 -0.75 10.60 120 -0.52 12.17 144 -0.26 14.37 168 0.18 16.41 192 0.19 17.44 216 0.11 17.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.07 -0.98 5.98 6.07 48 -1.33 -1.16 8.29 8.32 72 -1.21 -1.27 11.66 11.33 96 -1.31 14.67 120 -0.95 17.34 144 -0.47 20.50 168 -0.43 23.77 192 -0.67 25.11 216 -1.19 25.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.13 -3.17 9.68 9.44 0.98 0.98 48 -4.47 -5.22 13.60 14.22 0.97 0.97 72 -7.31 -8.42 20.96 21.28 0.94 0.93 96 -10.66 29.46 0.89 120 -10.51 41.03 0.82 144 -4.12 50.60 0.74 168 1.75 63.46 0.70 192 4.36 78.64 0.62 216 -1.07 87.76 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.78 -5.73 12.64 11.97 0.99 0.98 48 -8.01 -8.54 19.19 19.29 0.98 0.98 72 -11.01 -11.40 30.76 30.16 0.96 0.96 96 -12.81 44.43 0.92 120 -10.30 63.60 0.85 144 -2.99 81.42 0.76 168 8.20 101.01 0.69 192 15.19 116.27 0.59 216 16.02 125.06 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.70 -6.09 16.49 14.48 0.99 0.99 48 -8.84 -9.05 24.18 23.00 0.98 0.98 72 -12.20 -11.95 38.45 36.10 0.97 0.97 96 -12.81 55.73 0.93 120 -11.38 83.68 0.85 144 -4.89 106.56 0.78 168 7.50 134.06 0.68 192 17.44 153.19 0.58 216 28.84 162.82 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.35 1.57 1.49 0.88 0.89 48 -0.49 -0.40 1.78 1.71 0.91 0.91 72 -0.43 -0.34 2.05 2.01 0.89 0.90 96 -0.23 2.36 0.87 120 -0.04 2.85 0.80 144 0.04 3.43 0.73 168 0.24 4.19 0.65 192 0.57 5.04 0.54 216 0.93 5.50 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.08 0.84 0.88 0.96 0.95 48 -0.02 -0.11 1.16 1.17 0.96 0.96 72 -0.07 -0.10 1.63 1.67 0.93 0.93 96 -0.04 2.25 0.88 120 -0.01 3.03 0.77 144 0.02 3.65 0.70 168 0.23 4.51 0.61 192 0.42 5.10 0.57 216 0.92 5.34 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.43 0.38 1.16 1.12 0.93 0.92 48 0.41 0.36 1.43 1.36 0.94 0.93 72 0.41 0.34 1.79 1.72 0.91 0.91 96 0.34 2.15 0.85 120 0.21 2.72 0.78 144 0.02 3.18 0.73 168 -0.10 3.54 0.69 192 -0.06 3.72 0.67 216 0.28 4.06 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.55 4.09 4.18 48 -0.66 -0.55 4.59 4.68 72 -0.60 -0.60 5.32 5.42 96 -0.62 6.34 120 -0.89 7.68 144 -1.18 9.01 168 -1.38 10.11 192 -1.36 11.46 216 -0.84 11.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.54 4.47 4.50 48 -0.50 -0.52 5.78 5.72 72 -0.54 -0.46 7.65 7.66 96 -0.53 9.63 120 -0.82 12.37 144 -1.04 15.36 168 -1.34 17.65 192 -1.51 19.80 216 -1.21 20.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.41 4.86 4.90 48 -0.50 -0.53 6.66 6.62 72 -0.49 -0.53 9.28 8.97 96 -0.53 12.31 120 -0.91 16.53 144 -1.11 20.06 168 -1.34 23.84 192 -1.69 27.69 216 -1.20 29.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.82 2.62 11.06 11.76 0.95 0.95 48 2.90 2.54 13.72 14.19 0.96 0.96 72 3.82 3.44 16.55 17.18 0.96 0.96 96 4.05 19.63 0.95 120 3.38 22.66 0.91 144 2.57 25.28 0.86 168 3.69 28.65 0.82 192 7.16 33.90 0.72 216 6.46 38.37 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.96 0.36 14.31 14.68 0.96 0.95 48 -0.19 0.36 17.70 17.88 0.96 0.96 72 0.01 1.40 21.40 21.87 0.96 0.95 96 2.38 26.59 0.94 120 0.63 30.85 0.92 144 -2.66 36.20 0.88 168 -3.42 40.62 0.83 192 1.75 48.03 0.78 216 2.39 58.13 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.54 -5.73 18.83 18.86 0.96 0.95 48 -10.39 -9.73 26.11 25.94 0.96 0.96 72 -14.59 -13.06 33.75 33.08 0.96 0.96 96 -13.15 38.21 0.95 120 -13.20 42.48 0.94 144 -15.17 47.27 0.91 168 -16.09 54.60 0.86 192 -12.11 66.77 0.81 216 -13.19 85.66 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.34 1.78 1.83 0.88 0.89 48 -0.09 -0.24 2.05 2.11 0.90 0.91 72 -0.02 -0.11 2.36 2.40 0.90 0.90 96 -0.02 2.68 0.88 120 -0.02 2.93 0.84 144 -0.15 3.21 0.81 168 -0.26 3.52 0.77 192 -0.24 3.92 0.67 216 -0.07 4.32 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.42 1.31 1.31 0.89 0.89 48 -0.61 -0.58 1.57 1.56 0.90 0.91 72 -0.72 -0.67 1.81 1.81 0.90 0.91 96 -0.72 2.05 0.90 120 -0.76 2.26 0.88 144 -0.82 2.50 0.84 168 -0.85 2.84 0.80 192 -0.87 3.19 0.76 216 -0.97 3.76 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.42 0.47 1.68 1.66 0.88 0.89 48 0.43 0.48 1.95 1.91 0.89 0.90 72 0.26 0.33 2.25 2.19 0.88 0.89 96 0.33 2.50 0.87 120 0.44 2.68 0.85 144 0.49 2.89 0.81 168 0.41 3.13 0.76 192 0.36 3.42 0.71 216 0.41 3.87 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -1.01 3.88 3.83 48 -1.05 -1.21 4.34 4.24 72 -1.16 -1.29 4.73 4.75 96 -1.22 5.15 120 -1.22 5.41 144 -1.30 5.96 168 -1.35 6.30 192 -1.35 7.05 216 -1.35 7.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 120 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.28 4.85 4.95 48 -0.62 -0.42 5.71 5.85 72 -0.75 -0.58 6.65 6.76 96 -0.68 7.72 120 -0.51 8.61 144 -0.46 9.41 168 -0.61 10.25 192 -0.62 11.59 216 -0.58 12.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 133 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.72 5.40 5.43 48 -1.07 -0.91 6.75 6.69 72 -1.38 -1.23 8.25 8.18 96 -1.26 9.16 120 -1.00 9.84 144 -1.01 10.85 168 -1.28 12.12 192 -1.38 14.27 216 -1.12 16.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 133 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.76 -2.47 6.69 7.44 0.93 0.94 48 -1.23 -1.68 8.87 9.74 0.95 0.96 72 -0.89 -1.11 11.57 13.15 0.93 0.94 96 -0.80 17.44 0.89 120 -2.41 24.13 0.79 144 -2.68 31.00 0.72 168 -0.71 34.05 0.71 192 -0.09 39.50 0.72 216 -4.07 47.05 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.44 -6.69 9.44 10.82 0.94 0.96 48 -4.62 -5.89 11.97 13.08 0.96 0.96 72 -5.21 -6.15 15.49 17.85 0.95 0.94 96 -5.53 22.81 0.93 120 -8.12 33.26 0.84 144 -8.42 43.31 0.77 168 -8.86 51.51 0.74 192 -7.92 56.64 0.71 216 -14.32 72.56 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.00 -9.89 14.13 17.07 0.96 0.97 48 -9.27 -11.13 18.92 23.41 0.97 0.97 72 -11.84 -13.54 24.90 31.83 0.96 0.95 96 -14.51 37.50 0.94 120 -17.12 49.52 0.90 144 -18.92 61.48 0.86 168 -22.85 77.66 0.77 192 -23.14 89.15 0.72 216 -30.12 109.81 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.20 1.20 1.25 0.84 0.84 48 -0.01 -0.12 1.41 1.42 0.90 0.91 72 0.02 -0.09 1.64 1.63 0.91 0.91 96 -0.12 1.88 0.88 120 -0.18 2.24 0.85 144 -0.32 2.54 0.79 168 -0.33 2.96 0.72 192 -0.39 3.34 0.66 216 -0.44 3.46 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.10 0.85 0.83 0.85 0.84 48 -0.13 -0.18 1.02 1.03 0.89 0.91 72 -0.22 -0.28 1.22 1.25 0.87 0.89 96 -0.28 1.39 0.89 120 -0.27 1.59 0.83 144 -0.27 1.91 0.80 168 -0.51 2.24 0.70 192 -0.50 2.51 0.67 216 -0.56 2.86 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.18 0.92 0.99 0.86 0.90 48 0.11 0.09 1.14 1.26 0.89 0.91 72 0.01 -0.01 1.39 1.52 0.89 0.90 96 -0.19 1.73 0.88 120 -0.26 2.10 0.83 144 -0.38 2.44 0.76 168 -0.31 2.66 0.74 192 -0.59 2.86 0.79 216 -0.61 3.32 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.48 3.81 3.60 48 -0.53 -0.50 4.25 4.05 72 -0.61 -0.47 4.81 4.51 96 -0.42 5.21 120 -0.52 5.84 144 -0.79 6.52 168 -0.68 6.84 192 -0.68 7.28 216 -0.41 7.88 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.62 3.85 3.83 48 -0.74 -0.64 4.50 4.51 72 -0.63 -0.73 5.21 5.40 96 -0.71 6.10 120 -0.62 7.28 144 -0.71 8.27 168 -0.93 8.70 192 -0.84 9.70 216 -0.57 10.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -1.27 5.21 5.37 48 -0.99 -1.36 6.53 7.02 72 -0.93 -1.34 8.02 8.61 96 -1.43 10.17 120 -1.50 11.59 144 -1.67 13.66 168 -1.61 14.57 192 -1.08 16.39 216 -0.73 18.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.90 -3.04 8.75 8.93 0.74 0.62 48 -3.17 -2.83 9.28 9.24 0.82 0.76 72 -2.95 -2.54 9.61 9.40 0.82 0.78 96 -2.06 9.76 0.77 120 -1.85 10.17 0.77 144 -2.08 10.88 0.77 168 -2.19 11.96 0.74 192 -2.11 12.72 0.71 216 -2.25 13.44 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.53 -5.17 11.56 11.72 0.60 0.57 48 -5.90 -5.48 12.10 12.25 0.73 0.71 72 -6.25 -5.89 12.49 12.59 0.75 0.74 96 -6.12 13.14 0.76 120 -6.33 13.88 0.75 144 -6.91 14.89 0.77 168 -7.67 16.25 0.71 192 -8.19 17.02 0.71 216 -8.59 17.97 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.50 -10.13 16.34 16.97 0.57 0.59 48 -9.96 -10.28 17.08 17.89 0.73 0.73 72 -10.01 -10.52 17.78 18.90 0.75 0.75 96 -10.76 19.89 0.77 120 -11.05 21.41 0.75 144 -11.95 23.39 0.74 168 -13.55 26.16 0.69 192 -14.56 27.89 0.67 216 -15.56 29.75 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.10 1.08 1.04 0.49 0.42 48 -0.13 -0.07 1.10 1.07 0.62 0.58 72 -0.08 -0.06 1.11 1.09 0.68 0.65 96 -0.05 1.13 0.66 120 -0.06 1.20 0.67 144 -0.09 1.25 0.65 168 -0.15 1.37 0.60 192 -0.22 1.46 0.52 216 -0.28 1.61 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.20 0.82 0.89 0.51 0.54 48 -0.21 -0.27 0.87 0.97 0.64 0.61 72 -0.23 -0.30 0.93 1.03 0.64 0.65 96 -0.30 1.04 0.65 120 -0.29 1.10 0.64 144 -0.28 1.18 0.62 168 -0.31 1.26 0.57 192 -0.34 1.33 0.56 216 -0.36 1.35 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.09 0.69 0.68 0.59 0.59 48 0.16 0.15 0.80 0.78 0.63 0.66 72 0.18 0.16 0.87 0.86 0.68 0.69 96 0.13 0.92 0.70 120 0.14 1.00 0.69 144 0.11 1.04 0.67 168 0.08 1.08 0.66 192 0.04 1.14 0.65 216 0.00 1.24 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.67 3.64 3.48 48 -0.56 -0.66 3.96 3.75 72 -0.62 -0.61 4.21 3.91 96 -0.60 4.18 120 -0.63 4.43 144 -0.72 4.62 168 -0.75 4.78 192 -0.86 5.02 216 -0.90 5.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.94 -0.88 4.00 4.00 48 -0.97 -0.93 4.36 4.35 72 -0.99 -0.96 4.67 4.66 96 -0.95 5.02 120 -0.91 5.30 144 -0.94 5.71 168 -0.95 5.98 192 -0.91 6.38 216 -0.91 6.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.02 -1.08 5.17 5.36 48 -1.14 -1.08 6.01 6.23 72 -1.11 -1.11 6.72 6.96 96 -1.23 7.54 120 -1.38 8.08 144 -1.52 8.78 168 -1.60 9.15 192 -1.36 9.62 216 -1.49 10.03 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.25 -1.22 10.25 10.68 0.98 0.98 48 -1.72 -2.03 14.14 14.80 0.98 0.98 72 -2.21 -2.57 20.23 20.74 0.96 0.96 96 -3.32 27.87 0.94 120 -2.99 36.20 0.90 144 -2.30 45.20 0.83 168 -2.74 55.38 0.75 192 -1.30 63.52 0.68 216 -2.26 68.88 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 320 12 UTC = 318 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.03 -3.80 13.66 13.68 0.98 0.98 48 -5.08 -5.21 19.51 19.73 0.98 0.98 72 -5.77 -5.84 28.31 28.74 0.97 0.97 96 -6.17 40.00 0.95 120 -5.28 53.09 0.90 144 -5.06 67.49 0.84 168 -4.81 82.71 0.76 192 -2.46 93.68 0.70 216 -2.26 101.76 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 335 12 UTC = 333 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.27 -6.30 17.70 17.53 0.98 0.98 48 -9.12 -9.31 25.82 26.16 0.98 0.98 72 -11.23 -11.62 37.74 37.62 0.97 0.97 96 -12.05 51.82 0.95 120 -10.58 68.37 0.91 144 -9.94 87.10 0.85 168 -9.44 107.01 0.77 192 -6.28 123.13 0.71 216 -5.22 136.04 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 339 12 UTC = 334 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.42 1.67 1.70 0.91 0.91 48 -0.37 -0.42 1.93 1.96 0.93 0.93 72 -0.33 -0.37 2.26 2.31 0.93 0.92 96 -0.29 2.70 0.91 120 -0.20 3.15 0.87 144 -0.24 3.65 0.82 168 -0.20 4.28 0.76 192 -0.13 4.93 0.68 216 -0.02 5.41 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 389 12 UTC = 383 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.20 1.10 1.11 0.94 0.94 48 -0.28 -0.29 1.40 1.41 0.95 0.94 72 -0.34 -0.34 1.77 1.80 0.93 0.93 96 -0.37 2.22 0.90 120 -0.37 2.70 0.86 144 -0.41 3.21 0.80 168 -0.40 3.78 0.73 192 -0.39 4.23 0.67 216 -0.38 4.62 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 418 12 UTC = 411 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.39 1.43 1.41 0.92 0.92 48 0.38 0.39 1.73 1.71 0.93 0.93 72 0.31 0.31 2.08 2.07 0.91 0.91 96 0.33 2.47 0.89 120 0.33 2.86 0.85 144 0.34 3.23 0.80 168 0.32 3.60 0.75 192 0.38 3.87 0.71 216 0.45 4.19 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 414 12 UTC = 407 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.90 4.00 4.06 48 -0.94 -1.04 4.62 4.63 72 -0.99 -1.13 5.35 5.40 96 -1.14 6.22 120 -1.20 7.04 144 -1.27 8.09 168 -1.20 9.02 192 -1.20 9.86 216 -1.06 10.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 373 12 UTC = 370 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.52 4.67 4.75 48 -0.63 -0.62 5.94 6.00 72 -0.70 -0.74 7.49 7.55 96 -0.81 9.27 120 -0.77 10.93 144 -0.75 12.77 168 -0.73 14.39 192 -0.79 15.93 216 -0.85 16.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 398 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.63 5.19 5.27 48 -0.86 -0.76 6.89 6.96 72 -0.95 -0.90 9.18 9.07 96 -0.94 11.43 120 -0.81 13.79 144 -0.80 16.25 168 -0.97 18.79 192 -1.08 21.09 216 -1.13 22.36 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 396 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.64 -1.33 8.20 8.77 0.96 0.96 48 -1.40 -1.51 10.94 12.05 0.96 0.96 72 -0.86 -1.37 14.48 16.35 0.93 0.94 96 -1.47 22.25 0.91 120 -1.77 28.64 0.84 144 -2.55 35.42 0.78 168 -3.99 42.07 0.72 192 -2.83 44.67 0.72 216 -3.09 50.54 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.56 -5.00 10.77 11.88 0.95 0.96 48 -4.31 -4.85 14.14 16.65 0.96 0.97 72 -4.02 -4.75 18.48 22.67 0.94 0.96 96 -3.94 30.58 0.92 120 -5.32 39.72 0.87 144 -5.04 49.60 0.81 168 -8.42 61.01 0.71 192 -6.93 66.67 0.69 216 -8.46 72.92 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.99 -5.22 16.27 19.56 0.96 0.96 48 -7.12 -6.81 21.98 26.91 0.97 0.97 72 -8.48 -8.62 29.49 36.24 0.95 0.96 96 -9.13 46.71 0.93 120 -11.73 57.71 0.90 144 -11.61 70.94 0.84 168 -15.96 86.96 0.76 192 -17.77 98.93 0.71 216 -19.15 108.93 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.53 1.46 1.45 0.86 0.86 48 -0.37 -0.48 1.64 1.60 0.90 0.89 72 -0.34 -0.46 1.84 1.78 0.91 0.89 96 -0.38 2.04 0.87 120 -0.39 2.40 0.84 144 -0.46 2.62 0.79 168 -0.41 2.98 0.71 192 -0.47 3.31 0.65 216 -0.56 3.56 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.08 0.92 1.03 0.88 0.88 48 -0.02 0.04 1.14 1.24 0.90 0.91 72 -0.05 -0.03 1.43 1.58 0.87 0.90 96 0.01 1.95 0.85 120 -0.10 2.25 0.81 144 0.02 2.60 0.77 168 -0.10 2.93 0.70 192 -0.13 3.28 0.62 216 -0.13 3.34 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.12 1.12 1.30 0.88 0.88 48 0.09 0.01 1.41 1.58 0.89 0.89 72 -0.03 -0.04 1.71 1.94 0.87 0.87 96 -0.20 2.26 0.83 120 -0.22 2.70 0.76 144 -0.37 2.99 0.72 168 -0.29 3.30 0.67 192 -0.48 3.42 0.69 216 -0.58 3.68 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.76 4.10 4.08 48 -0.78 -0.78 4.55 4.45 72 -0.86 -0.76 5.10 4.96 96 -0.65 5.76 120 -0.65 6.34 144 -0.70 6.99 168 -0.69 7.67 192 -0.78 8.06 216 -0.75 8.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.59 4.06 4.10 48 -0.78 -0.67 4.89 4.96 72 -0.71 -0.72 5.80 6.18 96 -0.72 7.30 120 -0.80 8.56 144 -0.69 9.70 168 -0.75 10.68 192 -0.84 11.72 216 -0.79 12.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -1.14 5.51 5.59 48 -1.22 -1.38 6.99 7.16 72 -1.14 -1.57 8.65 8.81 96 -1.49 11.25 120 -1.66 12.73 144 -1.79 15.05 168 -1.43 16.35 192 -1.25 18.37 216 -1.23 19.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------