VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY APRIL 2012 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.12 0.96 0.96 0.99 0.99 18.3 19.0 48 0.15 0.14 1.56 1.55 0.98 0.98 27.4 28.5 72 0.14 0.12 2.30 2.28 0.95 0.95 36.2 37.2 96 0.08 3.13 0.91 45.7 120 0.02 4.13 0.84 54.5 144 -0.01 5.15 0.75 62.6 168 -0.08 6.11 0.64 69.1 192 -0.16 7.07 0.52 74.9 216 -0.30 7.93 0.42 79.4 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -1.06 7.08 7.08 1.00 1.00 10.7 10.8 48 -1.31 -1.58 14.19 14.30 0.99 0.99 19.3 19.7 72 -1.94 -2.27 22.92 23.07 0.97 0.97 27.9 28.1 96 -3.11 32.92 0.94 35.9 120 -3.92 45.27 0.88 43.9 144 -4.50 57.75 0.80 51.0 168 -5.42 69.57 0.70 56.9 192 -6.74 81.61 0.59 62.0 216 -8.56 92.07 0.49 66.5 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.88 -2.18 9.66 9.81 1.00 1.00 9.1 9.2 48 -3.85 -4.23 18.86 19.28 0.99 0.99 15.6 15.7 72 -6.05 -6.39 30.45 30.43 0.97 0.97 22.5 22.5 96 -8.54 43.21 0.95 29.2 120 -10.76 59.06 0.90 36.3 144 -12.52 76.16 0.82 43.1 168 -13.82 92.27 0.74 48.9 192 -15.53 109.18 0.63 54.2 216 -17.88 123.84 0.52 58.6 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 0.51 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 -0.09 -0.10 0.90 0.93 0.97 0.97 72 -0.15 -0.16 1.36 1.37 0.94 0.94 96 -0.22 1.84 0.88 120 -0.28 2.31 0.82 144 -0.33 2.80 0.73 168 -0.37 3.24 0.63 192 -0.41 3.65 0.54 216 -0.45 4.01 0.44 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 0.66 0.65 0.98 0.98 48 -0.05 -0.05 1.10 1.10 0.95 0.95 72 -0.10 -0.09 1.57 1.56 0.89 0.89 96 -0.11 2.01 0.82 120 -0.15 2.45 0.72 144 -0.20 2.87 0.61 168 -0.21 3.21 0.51 192 -0.22 3.47 0.43 216 -0.25 3.68 0.35 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 2.32 2.33 48 -0.09 -0.08 4.11 4.17 72 -0.16 -0.13 5.87 5.92 96 -0.17 7.60 120 -0.20 9.43 144 -0.27 11.16 168 -0.25 12.54 192 -0.25 13.93 216 -0.21 15.19 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.12 3.58 3.50 48 -0.26 -0.21 5.74 5.72 72 -0.31 -0.26 7.99 7.96 96 -0.25 10.18 120 -0.29 12.67 144 -0.33 15.39 168 -0.29 17.52 192 -0.25 19.78 216 -0.16 21.77 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.01 -1.00 3.04 3.02 0.97 0.98 28.3 27.4 48 -1.51 -1.40 4.37 4.19 0.94 0.95 36.8 35.5 72 -1.65 -1.48 5.16 5.07 0.92 0.93 41.5 40.0 96 -1.31 5.57 0.91 43.1 120 -1.13 6.35 0.88 45.9 144 -1.34 7.17 0.85 48.9 168 -1.67 8.14 0.81 51.9 192 -1.77 9.19 0.76 54.9 216 -1.44 9.90 0.71 57.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.20 4.78 4.80 0.98 0.98 18.7 18.8 48 -0.81 -0.79 7.49 7.76 0.96 0.96 26.5 26.6 72 -1.58 -1.49 9.77 10.05 0.93 0.93 31.7 32.0 96 -2.17 12.11 0.90 36.1 120 -3.06 14.18 0.86 39.9 144 -4.35 16.90 0.80 44.1 168 -6.02 19.92 0.73 48.1 192 -7.67 22.56 0.66 51.3 216 -8.97 24.33 0.61 53.5 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.38 0.39 0.95 0.96 48 0.06 0.05 0.63 0.63 0.88 0.89 72 0.08 0.05 0.78 0.79 0.82 0.84 96 0.04 0.90 0.79 120 0.03 0.99 0.75 144 0.01 1.06 0.70 168 -0.01 1.14 0.66 192 -0.04 1.24 0.60 216 -0.08 1.33 0.54 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 0.34 0.35 0.95 0.94 48 -0.02 -0.04 0.54 0.54 0.86 0.86 72 -0.01 -0.03 0.67 0.67 0.78 0.78 96 -0.03 0.75 0.72 120 -0.05 0.83 0.65 144 -0.07 0.90 0.58 168 -0.10 0.98 0.52 192 -0.14 1.03 0.47 216 -0.20 1.09 0.41 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 1.46 1.44 48 -0.07 -0.03 2.15 2.14 72 -0.11 -0.08 2.56 2.55 96 -0.09 2.85 120 -0.10 3.14 144 -0.11 3.43 168 -0.12 3.72 192 -0.13 4.01 216 -0.14 4.20 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.39 3.20 3.20 48 -0.56 -0.59 4.91 4.85 72 -0.64 -0.67 6.14 6.11 96 -0.71 7.06 120 -0.75 7.92 144 -0.76 8.82 168 -0.75 9.80 192 -0.77 10.57 216 -0.79 10.94 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.05 1.02 1.00 0.99 0.99 13.7 13.6 48 0.09 0.09 2.03 2.00 0.97 0.97 24.3 24.3 72 0.11 0.12 3.11 3.07 0.94 0.94 33.3 33.2 96 0.12 4.20 0.89 41.1 120 0.14 5.33 0.81 48.1 144 0.19 6.57 0.72 54.4 168 0.28 7.84 0.61 59.8 192 0.36 8.63 0.51 63.7 216 0.40 9.43 0.42 67.6 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.00 9.17 8.99 1.00 1.00 10.8 10.7 48 0.12 0.01 19.11 18.64 0.98 0.98 19.8 19.7 72 -0.14 -0.18 29.92 29.52 0.96 0.96 27.7 27.7 96 -0.42 41.08 0.92 34.8 120 -0.92 54.56 0.86 41.8 144 -1.33 69.00 0.77 48.1 168 -1.44 84.15 0.67 53.9 192 -1.78 95.87 0.57 58.6 216 -2.05 105.93 0.47 62.3 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.10 12.09 11.77 1.00 1.00 9.2 9.2 48 -0.52 -0.59 24.53 24.09 0.98 0.99 16.5 16.4 72 -1.36 -1.35 39.43 38.90 0.96 0.96 23.8 23.6 96 -2.33 54.96 0.92 30.4 120 -3.89 73.05 0.86 37.2 144 -5.82 92.43 0.77 43.5 168 -7.33 112.67 0.67 49.1 192 -8.74 129.40 0.57 53.9 216 -10.27 143.20 0.47 57.3 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.57 0.56 0.99 0.99 48 -0.05 -0.05 1.08 1.08 0.96 0.96 72 -0.09 -0.08 1.60 1.59 0.91 0.91 96 -0.11 2.10 0.84 120 -0.18 2.60 0.76 144 -0.24 3.09 0.66 168 -0.29 3.57 0.54 192 -0.35 3.98 0.43 216 -0.41 4.24 0.35 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.63 0.64 0.98 0.98 48 -0.02 -0.03 1.18 1.18 0.94 0.94 72 -0.05 -0.06 1.68 1.68 0.87 0.87 96 -0.10 2.13 0.79 120 -0.15 2.58 0.69 144 -0.22 2.97 0.59 168 -0.28 3.33 0.48 192 -0.33 3.61 0.38 216 -0.41 3.78 0.31 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.08 2.52 2.52 48 -0.16 -0.18 4.73 4.70 72 -0.23 -0.27 6.65 6.66 96 -0.36 8.48 120 -0.41 10.32 144 -0.45 12.08 168 -0.52 13.69 192 -0.53 15.03 216 -0.57 16.15 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.14 3.55 3.55 48 -0.28 -0.28 6.38 6.33 72 -0.37 -0.36 9.21 9.11 96 -0.42 11.91 120 -0.47 14.79 144 -0.59 17.62 168 -0.67 20.10 192 -0.69 22.15 216 -0.70 23.77 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.55 -1.12 9.26 8.99 0.98 0.98 48 -3.40 -2.47 12.77 13.18 0.98 0.98 72 -3.47 -2.50 17.46 18.08 0.97 0.97 96 -1.73 24.60 0.94 120 -0.24 32.50 0.88 144 -0.82 41.72 0.84 168 -2.18 49.52 0.78 192 -1.85 54.32 0.74 216 0.96 60.41 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.29 -5.41 12.30 11.72 0.99 0.99 48 -8.27 -7.70 18.55 18.49 0.98 0.98 72 -8.81 -8.03 26.57 26.94 0.97 0.97 96 -6.77 37.03 0.93 120 -3.59 50.68 0.89 144 -4.16 65.96 0.83 168 -6.15 77.27 0.81 192 -7.79 86.93 0.76 216 -6.97 95.63 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.63 -6.06 15.31 14.54 0.99 0.99 48 -9.24 -8.99 24.81 23.93 0.99 0.99 72 -11.39 -10.47 37.03 36.53 0.97 0.97 96 -10.39 51.90 0.94 120 -7.89 69.32 0.91 144 -10.77 89.79 0.84 168 -14.76 105.83 0.82 192 -18.04 119.63 0.77 216 -20.16 131.91 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.74 1.85 1.86 0.90 0.92 48 -0.78 -0.79 2.02 2.08 0.93 0.94 72 -0.75 -0.77 2.30 2.37 0.93 0.94 96 -0.65 2.77 0.92 120 -0.47 3.38 0.87 144 -0.35 4.13 0.80 168 -0.24 4.70 0.78 192 -0.24 5.41 0.71 216 -0.43 5.88 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 -0.02 0.92 0.96 0.95 0.95 48 -0.01 -0.05 1.21 1.24 0.96 0.96 72 -0.04 -0.06 1.66 1.64 0.94 0.94 96 -0.09 2.10 0.90 120 -0.03 2.58 0.88 144 -0.11 3.07 0.83 168 -0.23 3.48 0.80 192 -0.30 3.76 0.77 216 -0.41 4.17 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.39 1.18 1.19 0.93 0.92 48 0.40 0.43 1.49 1.52 0.93 0.93 72 0.30 0.31 1.79 1.82 0.92 0.92 96 0.25 2.17 0.89 120 0.16 2.63 0.82 144 0.09 3.02 0.74 168 0.09 3.20 0.69 192 0.01 3.43 0.68 216 -0.07 3.63 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.76 4.04 4.23 48 -0.53 -0.83 4.66 4.84 72 -0.57 -0.85 5.42 5.63 96 -0.85 6.67 120 -0.95 7.67 144 -0.95 8.97 168 -0.88 10.00 192 -0.96 10.74 216 -0.87 11.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.54 4.63 4.63 48 -0.49 -0.60 5.75 5.78 72 -0.58 -0.70 7.24 7.43 96 -0.80 9.04 120 -0.95 11.04 144 -0.97 13.19 168 -0.71 14.82 192 -0.72 15.74 216 -0.66 16.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.55 6.02 5.78 48 -0.89 -0.62 7.75 7.44 72 -1.07 -0.80 10.06 9.73 96 -1.14 12.32 120 -1.41 15.59 144 -1.52 18.92 168 -1.09 21.05 192 -1.18 22.85 216 -0.85 24.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.79 -4.79 9.83 9.43 0.98 0.98 48 -6.55 -7.26 13.51 14.15 0.98 0.97 72 -4.96 -7.31 18.27 18.33 0.96 0.96 96 -5.47 24.36 0.93 120 -1.34 34.68 0.86 144 3.22 46.06 0.79 168 9.51 54.20 0.73 192 15.46 55.79 0.73 216 21.58 61.21 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.72 -8.05 14.57 12.21 0.98 0.98 48 -12.37 -11.25 20.78 19.55 0.97 0.98 72 -11.33 -12.27 27.60 26.80 0.96 0.97 96 -10.97 35.58 0.94 120 -5.92 49.65 0.88 144 0.38 68.74 0.79 168 10.13 80.26 0.72 192 17.76 87.98 0.72 216 26.91 88.47 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.91 -8.63 18.00 15.29 0.98 0.98 48 -14.57 -13.33 25.57 24.38 0.98 0.98 72 -15.35 -16.69 34.87 34.11 0.97 0.97 96 -17.50 47.17 0.95 120 -13.52 65.65 0.90 144 -8.36 90.38 0.82 168 1.18 105.02 0.77 192 8.61 118.13 0.72 216 18.96 118.68 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.44 1.41 1.24 0.90 0.88 48 -0.70 -0.43 1.55 1.37 0.92 0.91 72 -0.61 -0.39 1.74 1.57 0.92 0.92 96 -0.38 1.94 0.89 120 -0.34 2.30 0.85 144 -0.31 2.98 0.78 168 -0.11 3.50 0.73 192 0.07 3.81 0.69 216 0.25 3.76 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.08 0.83 0.86 0.94 0.94 48 -0.17 -0.12 1.12 1.12 0.95 0.94 72 -0.25 -0.25 1.49 1.47 0.93 0.93 96 -0.31 1.96 0.90 120 -0.27 2.48 0.85 144 -0.14 3.11 0.78 168 -0.01 3.51 0.74 192 -0.02 3.89 0.70 216 0.16 3.95 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.46 0.42 1.31 1.25 0.92 0.92 48 0.46 0.37 1.64 1.63 0.91 0.91 72 0.31 0.27 1.99 1.96 0.87 0.87 96 0.09 2.39 0.83 120 -0.06 3.04 0.74 144 -0.33 3.56 0.63 168 -0.46 3.77 0.57 192 -0.51 3.90 0.54 216 -0.88 4.07 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.25 4.01 3.94 48 -0.73 -0.21 4.63 4.44 72 -0.76 -0.29 5.28 5.19 96 -0.49 5.94 120 -0.71 7.22 144 -0.76 8.33 168 -0.93 9.25 192 -1.09 9.30 216 -0.94 9.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.53 4.18 4.27 48 -0.54 -0.63 5.40 5.38 72 -0.56 -0.77 6.82 6.69 96 -1.02 8.29 120 -1.15 10.61 144 -1.17 12.90 168 -1.82 13.96 192 -2.24 14.75 216 -2.16 15.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.26 4.66 4.60 48 -0.67 -0.52 5.93 6.01 72 -0.89 -0.86 8.06 7.82 96 -1.20 10.28 120 -1.56 13.58 144 -1.82 17.14 168 -2.40 18.46 192 -2.74 20.32 216 -2.80 21.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.54 4.35 13.04 11.22 0.97 0.96 48 4.21 4.96 16.03 14.09 0.97 0.97 72 3.95 4.50 18.43 16.56 0.95 0.96 96 4.86 20.29 0.93 120 4.02 25.70 0.88 144 3.93 32.22 0.83 168 3.62 34.15 0.83 192 5.00 39.39 0.79 216 2.03 44.25 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.54 -1.45 11.76 12.31 0.97 0.97 48 -3.37 -2.61 16.06 16.29 0.98 0.97 72 -6.30 -5.81 20.68 21.15 0.96 0.95 96 -7.68 27.42 0.93 120 -9.16 34.63 0.90 144 -9.54 41.64 0.87 168 -9.86 48.01 0.86 192 -8.88 52.90 0.84 216 -11.24 57.60 0.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.62 -5.07 18.47 19.08 0.97 0.97 48 -8.41 -5.92 24.86 26.29 0.97 0.97 72 -13.56 -10.27 32.54 33.07 0.96 0.96 96 -15.41 40.84 0.94 120 -20.22 52.35 0.91 144 -23.52 63.22 0.89 168 -24.91 71.80 0.87 192 -23.47 79.05 0.85 216 -26.27 87.62 0.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.14 -1.28 2.43 2.42 0.91 0.91 48 -1.34 -1.51 2.68 2.72 0.93 0.92 72 -1.52 -1.66 2.88 2.93 0.91 0.91 96 -1.74 3.17 0.88 120 -1.68 3.47 0.85 144 -1.60 3.86 0.82 168 -1.48 4.12 0.79 192 -1.37 4.48 0.75 216 -1.37 4.95 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 120 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.07 1.02 1.05 0.95 0.94 48 -0.26 -0.17 1.28 1.31 0.95 0.95 72 -0.45 -0.31 1.67 1.66 0.93 0.93 96 -0.48 2.04 0.89 120 -0.60 2.49 0.84 144 -0.71 2.92 0.81 168 -0.74 3.22 0.79 192 -0.74 3.61 0.74 216 -0.75 4.00 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 138 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.19 1.34 1.37 0.91 0.90 48 0.21 0.30 1.59 1.67 0.91 0.91 72 0.22 0.34 1.90 1.99 0.89 0.87 96 0.28 2.32 0.82 120 0.19 2.60 0.76 144 0.15 2.96 0.70 168 0.11 3.13 0.71 192 0.05 3.31 0.70 216 0.01 3.41 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.81 4.19 4.08 48 -0.86 -0.78 4.74 4.69 72 -0.88 -0.80 5.37 5.37 96 -0.89 6.06 120 -0.98 7.15 144 -0.86 7.87 168 -0.96 8.30 192 -0.96 8.72 216 -1.01 9.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 116 12 UTC = 117 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.39 4.54 4.67 48 -0.48 -0.41 5.63 5.71 72 -0.53 -0.37 6.81 6.81 96 -0.37 8.17 120 -0.45 9.51 144 -0.42 10.71 168 -0.42 11.57 192 -0.40 12.30 216 -0.33 13.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.78 6.41 6.45 48 -0.67 -0.86 7.88 7.94 72 -0.68 -0.80 9.36 9.49 96 -0.83 11.05 120 -0.98 12.84 144 -0.78 14.65 168 -0.76 15.86 192 -0.70 17.45 216 -0.73 19.03 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 132 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.87 -3.23 7.00 8.08 0.97 0.97 48 -1.86 -2.86 9.28 10.92 0.97 0.98 72 -2.35 -2.96 12.80 16.26 0.96 0.97 96 -4.47 18.98 0.95 120 -5.96 23.54 0.93 144 -5.94 32.29 0.89 168 -4.83 36.71 0.85 192 -6.32 41.31 0.83 216 -8.23 45.18 0.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.40 -8.21 10.21 12.64 0.97 0.96 48 -7.27 -9.11 14.61 16.77 0.97 0.98 72 -9.10 -10.21 19.05 22.80 0.97 0.97 96 -11.44 27.00 0.96 120 -14.33 33.70 0.95 144 -17.07 45.46 0.91 168 -17.03 57.05 0.82 192 -19.27 63.87 0.78 216 -22.25 74.14 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.81 -10.87 14.63 16.21 0.98 0.98 48 -10.78 -12.93 22.06 23.60 0.98 0.98 72 -13.90 -14.60 29.87 31.83 0.97 0.97 96 -16.65 38.18 0.97 120 -22.16 47.92 0.95 144 -27.83 64.19 0.92 168 -29.09 79.22 0.84 192 -31.33 91.43 0.78 216 -37.11 108.18 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.33 1.11 1.20 0.85 0.86 48 -0.23 -0.34 1.26 1.39 0.90 0.89 72 -0.24 -0.36 1.45 1.55 0.89 0.89 96 -0.31 1.73 0.89 120 -0.27 2.04 0.84 144 -0.39 2.19 0.85 168 -0.39 2.67 0.79 192 -0.36 3.02 0.74 216 -0.43 3.24 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.15 0.83 0.87 0.88 0.90 48 -0.17 -0.21 1.05 1.16 0.90 0.93 72 -0.25 -0.33 1.24 1.43 0.89 0.90 96 -0.35 1.57 0.88 120 -0.40 1.63 0.88 144 -0.65 2.03 0.83 168 -0.70 2.40 0.73 192 -0.74 2.72 0.69 216 -0.86 3.03 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.33 0.98 1.01 0.86 0.87 48 0.31 0.38 1.20 1.28 0.85 0.86 72 0.29 0.40 1.42 1.59 0.84 0.80 96 0.26 1.78 0.80 120 0.15 1.78 0.80 144 0.21 2.09 0.74 168 0.11 2.23 0.76 192 0.18 2.54 0.69 216 0.05 2.92 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.04 3.57 3.59 48 -0.40 -0.06 4.09 4.22 72 -0.46 -0.21 4.54 4.63 96 -0.26 5.48 120 -0.40 5.82 144 -0.44 6.67 168 -0.28 7.36 192 -0.34 8.01 216 -0.37 8.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.57 3.96 4.13 48 -0.73 -0.71 4.96 5.21 72 -0.75 -0.87 6.00 6.35 96 -1.07 7.22 120 -1.17 8.12 144 -1.10 9.53 168 -1.26 10.80 192 -1.65 12.10 216 -1.17 12.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.58 5.47 5.39 48 -0.85 -0.47 7.17 7.31 72 -0.90 -0.47 9.03 9.29 96 -0.27 11.07 120 -0.30 12.56 144 -0.13 15.04 168 -0.43 16.54 192 -0.64 18.41 216 0.01 19.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.71 -3.83 9.92 9.63 0.61 0.64 48 -5.38 -4.51 10.60 10.10 0.73 0.77 72 -5.81 -4.68 10.95 10.28 0.77 0.78 96 -4.23 10.23 0.78 120 -3.83 10.44 0.75 144 -4.24 10.96 0.73 168 -4.57 11.48 0.72 192 -4.17 12.20 0.70 216 -4.04 12.56 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.63 -5.96 12.60 12.70 0.57 0.56 48 -8.20 -6.47 13.08 13.02 0.73 0.70 72 -9.12 -6.99 13.63 13.36 0.78 0.73 96 -7.34 13.84 0.72 120 -7.86 14.44 0.69 144 -9.01 15.61 0.66 168 -10.26 17.00 0.62 192 -10.85 17.85 0.62 216 -11.67 18.73 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.76 -10.65 17.77 17.02 0.58 0.58 48 -12.09 -12.31 19.07 18.75 0.70 0.70 72 -13.12 -13.26 20.17 20.11 0.74 0.73 96 -13.96 21.41 0.73 120 -14.92 22.64 0.74 144 -16.80 24.75 0.73 168 -19.08 27.44 0.70 192 -21.04 29.90 0.68 216 -22.85 32.23 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.23 0.99 0.96 0.39 0.39 48 -0.14 -0.17 1.00 0.99 0.48 0.51 72 -0.11 -0.17 1.00 1.00 0.55 0.56 96 -0.19 1.02 0.58 120 -0.21 1.03 0.60 144 -0.24 1.10 0.58 168 -0.28 1.14 0.57 192 -0.29 1.17 0.55 216 -0.35 1.21 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.19 0.82 0.82 0.51 0.54 48 -0.22 -0.22 0.87 0.87 0.58 0.60 72 -0.24 -0.23 0.92 0.91 0.59 0.61 96 -0.25 0.98 0.62 120 -0.30 1.02 0.64 144 -0.30 1.07 0.61 168 -0.36 1.13 0.58 192 -0.43 1.19 0.56 216 -0.48 1.26 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.01 0.67 0.64 0.55 0.57 48 0.06 -0.03 0.75 0.73 0.59 0.61 72 0.07 -0.04 0.80 0.81 0.62 0.60 96 -0.06 0.86 0.60 120 -0.10 0.89 0.60 144 -0.14 0.94 0.61 168 -0.18 0.98 0.60 192 -0.23 1.04 0.57 216 -0.28 1.09 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.52 3.25 3.29 48 -0.46 -0.48 3.53 3.56 72 -0.44 -0.42 3.63 3.68 96 -0.36 3.81 120 -0.32 3.99 144 -0.35 4.20 168 -0.38 4.27 192 -0.37 4.49 216 -0.34 4.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.04 -0.89 3.60 3.55 48 -1.13 -1.00 3.86 3.86 72 -1.08 -0.97 4.13 4.08 96 -0.99 4.42 120 -0.99 4.74 144 -1.02 5.14 168 -1.14 5.42 192 -1.09 5.79 216 -1.03 5.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.87 4.78 4.74 48 -0.95 -0.96 5.52 5.67 72 -0.99 -0.97 6.16 6.52 96 -0.99 7.08 120 -0.97 7.66 144 -1.05 8.42 168 -0.96 9.28 192 -0.88 9.90 216 -0.82 10.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.26 -0.92 10.56 10.27 0.98 0.98 48 -1.43 -1.45 13.90 13.90 0.98 0.98 72 -1.27 -1.63 18.20 18.00 0.96 0.96 96 -1.21 23.65 0.94 120 -0.53 31.51 0.91 144 0.00 40.25 0.86 168 0.80 47.08 0.82 192 2.28 51.95 0.78 216 3.08 57.55 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 316 12 UTC = 315 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.27 -4.61 12.90 12.56 0.98 0.98 48 -6.42 -6.22 18.14 18.16 0.98 0.98 72 -7.31 -7.51 25.04 25.39 0.97 0.97 96 -7.96 34.28 0.95 120 -7.09 46.08 0.92 144 -6.80 59.40 0.88 168 -6.18 69.98 0.85 192 -5.57 79.02 0.81 216 -5.17 85.70 0.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 335 12 UTC = 331 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.85 -6.65 17.81 17.46 0.98 0.98 48 -9.64 -9.03 24.81 25.28 0.98 0.98 72 -12.29 -11.71 34.30 34.76 0.97 0.97 96 -14.12 46.96 0.96 120 -14.89 62.39 0.93 144 -16.68 80.12 0.90 168 -17.56 94.66 0.86 192 -17.46 107.81 0.83 216 -18.36 117.63 0.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 335 12 UTC = 331 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.79 1.94 1.91 0.91 0.91 48 -0.91 -0.90 2.15 2.16 0.93 0.93 72 -0.94 -0.94 2.38 2.41 0.92 0.92 96 -0.95 2.72 0.90 120 -0.89 3.12 0.87 144 -0.85 3.66 0.82 168 -0.80 4.09 0.79 192 -0.77 4.58 0.74 216 -0.82 4.95 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 387 12 UTC = 382 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.09 0.96 0.98 0.95 0.95 48 -0.18 -0.16 1.22 1.25 0.96 0.95 72 -0.27 -0.23 1.61 1.61 0.94 0.94 96 -0.32 2.04 0.91 120 -0.36 2.51 0.88 144 -0.43 2.99 0.84 168 -0.49 3.41 0.81 192 -0.56 3.82 0.76 216 -0.60 4.14 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 416 12 UTC = 410 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.27 1.29 1.28 0.92 0.92 48 0.28 0.29 1.59 1.62 0.92 0.92 72 0.22 0.24 1.94 1.97 0.90 0.89 96 0.18 2.37 0.85 120 0.08 2.79 0.81 144 0.00 3.21 0.75 168 -0.05 3.47 0.72 192 -0.10 3.71 0.70 216 -0.21 3.85 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 411 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.66 4.03 4.00 48 -0.77 -0.69 4.61 4.59 72 -0.77 -0.72 5.33 5.34 96 -0.75 6.17 120 -0.84 7.25 144 -0.82 8.18 168 -0.91 8.94 192 -1.01 9.48 216 -0.94 9.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 367 12 UTC = 365 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.54 4.40 4.47 48 -0.55 -0.58 5.55 5.62 72 -0.58 -0.62 6.95 7.02 96 -0.67 8.49 120 -0.77 10.23 144 -0.80 11.93 168 -0.92 13.12 192 -1.01 14.13 216 -0.98 15.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 397 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.54 5.61 5.59 48 -0.69 -0.65 7.07 7.09 72 -0.77 -0.71 8.91 8.90 96 -0.83 10.92 120 -1.03 13.48 144 -1.04 16.07 168 -1.10 17.74 192 -1.16 19.72 216 -1.16 21.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 394 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -1.44 8.27 9.87 0.97 0.97 48 -0.28 -0.91 11.29 12.75 0.97 0.97 72 -0.24 -0.25 15.77 18.33 0.95 0.95 96 -0.30 23.46 0.93 120 -0.37 29.82 0.90 144 -0.77 37.62 0.87 168 -0.51 46.05 0.79 192 -0.43 48.84 0.78 216 0.38 50.99 0.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.55 -7.92 11.70 14.50 0.97 0.97 48 -6.48 -8.14 16.23 19.17 0.97 0.98 72 -7.22 -7.18 21.57 25.67 0.96 0.96 96 -5.54 32.53 0.95 120 -5.96 43.86 0.92 144 -9.62 54.17 0.87 168 -9.40 68.41 0.80 192 -9.91 75.10 0.75 216 -9.70 78.71 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.56 -8.76 17.06 20.02 0.98 0.98 48 -10.50 -9.66 24.43 27.97 0.98 0.98 72 -12.21 -9.13 33.99 37.46 0.96 0.97 96 -7.01 47.21 0.95 120 -9.39 62.23 0.92 144 -15.08 76.52 0.88 168 -17.07 96.90 0.81 192 -19.23 109.07 0.76 216 -23.09 117.29 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.82 1.56 1.71 0.85 0.87 48 -0.56 -0.89 1.74 1.93 0.89 0.90 72 -0.57 -0.83 1.90 2.07 0.90 0.90 96 -0.74 2.28 0.88 120 -0.66 2.71 0.83 144 -0.72 3.10 0.79 168 -0.72 3.54 0.71 192 -0.91 4.04 0.63 216 -0.92 4.15 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.03 0.97 1.03 0.91 0.92 48 -0.14 -0.05 1.21 1.32 0.92 0.93 72 -0.19 -0.04 1.53 1.66 0.90 0.91 96 0.03 1.91 0.89 120 -0.01 2.26 0.86 144 -0.25 2.67 0.79 168 -0.32 3.15 0.74 192 -0.32 3.52 0.64 216 -0.47 3.69 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.25 1.11 1.26 0.88 0.89 48 0.21 0.22 1.39 1.56 0.87 0.88 72 0.17 0.19 1.70 1.92 0.84 0.84 96 0.07 2.25 0.81 120 -0.07 2.50 0.77 144 -0.01 2.77 0.72 168 -0.08 3.03 0.70 192 -0.13 3.31 0.64 216 -0.31 3.51 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.30 4.26 4.20 48 -0.64 -0.41 4.78 4.79 72 -0.75 -0.45 5.25 5.38 96 -0.47 6.24 120 -0.53 7.06 144 -0.53 8.01 168 -0.20 8.94 192 -0.29 9.26 216 -0.58 9.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.40 4.30 4.52 48 -0.67 -0.43 5.35 5.61 72 -0.78 -0.54 6.61 7.07 96 -0.51 8.08 120 -0.67 9.59 144 -0.86 11.13 168 -0.70 12.57 192 -0.92 13.74 216 -0.72 13.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.70 5.49 5.67 48 -0.74 -0.59 7.27 7.40 72 -0.86 -0.52 9.37 9.57 96 -0.41 11.66 120 -0.30 14.27 144 -0.77 16.82 168 -0.55 19.33 192 -0.67 20.81 216 0.02 21.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 40 ---------------------------------------------------------