VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JULY 2012 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.02 0.76 0.77 0.99 0.99 20.9 21.1 48 0.04 0.05 1.27 1.27 0.96 0.97 31.0 31.3 72 0.10 0.10 1.88 1.88 0.92 0.92 40.1 40.3 96 0.21 2.54 0.86 48.3 120 0.31 3.18 0.77 55.5 144 0.42 3.77 0.68 61.0 168 0.51 4.33 0.59 65.7 192 0.62 4.87 0.48 69.6 216 0.71 5.30 0.38 72.9 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.10 -1.14 6.12 6.22 1.00 1.00 14.5 14.4 48 -1.64 -1.72 11.95 11.78 0.98 0.98 24.6 24.4 72 -1.85 -2.00 19.15 18.92 0.95 0.95 34.5 34.1 96 -1.90 26.72 0.90 43.1 120 -1.87 34.66 0.83 50.8 144 -1.86 42.20 0.76 57.3 168 -2.17 49.37 0.67 62.9 192 -2.46 56.62 0.57 68.0 216 -2.65 63.16 0.46 72.2 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.11 -2.22 9.28 9.73 1.00 0.99 13.4 13.6 48 -4.13 -4.35 18.34 18.54 0.98 0.98 23.7 23.4 72 -6.09 -6.41 29.61 29.40 0.95 0.95 33.4 33.1 96 -8.34 41.34 0.90 41.8 120 -10.20 53.09 0.83 49.2 144 -12.04 64.37 0.76 55.2 168 -14.28 74.61 0.68 60.4 192 -16.36 84.97 0.58 65.0 216 -18.02 94.95 0.48 69.3 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.46 0.98 0.98 48 -0.04 -0.04 0.77 0.78 0.95 0.95 72 -0.09 -0.10 1.11 1.10 0.89 0.89 96 -0.17 1.43 0.82 120 -0.23 1.73 0.73 144 -0.31 2.00 0.65 168 -0.39 2.26 0.56 192 -0.48 2.50 0.47 216 -0.55 2.71 0.38 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 0.64 0.64 0.97 0.97 48 -0.09 -0.11 1.08 1.08 0.91 0.91 72 -0.16 -0.18 1.53 1.52 0.82 0.82 96 -0.26 1.93 0.71 120 -0.31 2.28 0.59 144 -0.36 2.55 0.50 168 -0.41 2.77 0.41 192 -0.47 2.96 0.33 216 -0.52 3.14 0.26 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.14 2.05 2.03 48 -0.32 -0.31 3.49 3.43 72 -0.46 -0.45 4.87 4.81 96 -0.58 6.09 120 -0.66 7.25 144 -0.72 8.23 168 -0.80 9.09 192 -0.86 9.90 216 -0.87 10.63 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.28 3.48 3.50 48 -0.47 -0.51 5.94 5.90 72 -0.65 -0.71 8.31 8.28 96 -0.88 10.34 120 -0.99 12.20 144 -1.06 13.81 168 -1.13 15.15 192 -1.18 16.42 216 -1.23 17.64 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.81 2.90 2.91 0.97 0.97 22.1 22.4 48 -1.12 -1.21 4.17 4.38 0.94 0.94 29.6 29.9 72 -1.36 -1.56 5.45 5.90 0.90 0.89 34.8 34.9 96 -1.94 7.09 0.84 38.5 120 -2.24 8.14 0.79 41.6 144 -2.41 9.24 0.73 44.5 168 -2.59 10.49 0.66 46.8 192 -2.93 11.79 0.57 49.4 216 -2.80 12.70 0.49 51.7 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -1.20 4.42 4.87 0.98 0.97 21.5 21.8 48 -2.21 -2.77 7.02 7.88 0.95 0.93 29.6 30.1 72 -3.76 -4.31 9.47 10.17 0.91 0.90 34.8 35.3 96 -6.06 12.32 0.86 39.5 120 -7.77 14.57 0.82 42.9 144 -9.16 16.83 0.76 46.1 168 -10.63 19.11 0.70 49.2 192 -12.35 21.66 0.62 52.3 216 -13.55 23.95 0.54 55.1 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.03 0.39 0.40 0.96 0.96 48 0.02 0.01 0.61 0.62 0.91 0.90 72 0.04 0.03 0.77 0.79 0.85 0.84 96 0.03 0.91 0.79 120 0.03 1.02 0.74 144 0.02 1.14 0.68 168 0.01 1.25 0.62 192 -0.01 1.34 0.57 216 -0.04 1.43 0.51 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.02 0.32 0.32 0.93 0.92 48 -0.01 -0.03 0.48 0.48 0.83 0.82 72 -0.03 -0.05 0.60 0.60 0.74 0.72 96 -0.08 0.70 0.63 120 -0.11 0.78 0.55 144 -0.14 0.85 0.48 168 -0.19 0.91 0.42 192 -0.23 0.97 0.36 216 -0.27 1.03 0.30 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.01 1.49 1.49 48 -0.12 -0.09 2.24 2.26 72 -0.26 -0.23 2.78 2.79 96 -0.37 3.17 120 -0.47 3.51 144 -0.54 3.86 168 -0.60 4.16 192 -0.70 4.42 216 -0.79 4.65 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.42 3.16 3.17 48 -0.63 -0.69 4.64 4.74 72 -0.77 -0.80 5.71 5.78 96 -0.87 6.67 120 -0.95 7.39 144 -1.07 8.15 168 -1.17 8.90 192 -1.17 9.67 216 -1.17 10.37 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.09 1.09 1.08 0.99 0.99 14.1 13.9 48 0.11 0.11 2.23 2.16 0.98 0.98 25.6 25.2 72 0.08 0.11 3.53 3.51 0.94 0.94 35.5 35.3 96 0.04 4.90 0.88 43.9 120 -0.04 6.41 0.79 51.5 144 -0.14 7.87 0.69 58.4 168 -0.22 8.98 0.60 62.9 192 -0.26 10.21 0.48 67.7 216 -0.40 11.24 0.38 71.1 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.85 9.71 9.69 1.00 1.00 11.1 10.9 48 -1.51 -1.63 20.40 20.07 0.98 0.98 20.4 20.1 72 -2.31 -2.34 33.25 33.02 0.96 0.96 28.9 28.7 96 -3.38 46.88 0.91 36.4 120 -4.50 61.79 0.85 43.0 144 -5.61 77.13 0.77 49.4 168 -6.45 90.29 0.68 54.3 192 -7.64 104.01 0.57 59.1 216 -9.07 117.09 0.45 63.4 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.36 12.15 12.02 1.00 1.00 8.7 8.5 48 -0.71 -0.97 24.87 24.53 0.99 0.99 15.2 15.0 72 -1.56 -1.62 40.81 40.14 0.96 0.96 22.0 21.7 96 -2.46 57.32 0.93 28.2 120 -3.34 76.16 0.87 34.3 144 -4.80 96.16 0.79 40.2 168 -7.01 113.84 0.71 45.2 192 -10.12 131.46 0.61 49.8 216 -11.39 149.04 0.50 54.1 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.04 0.58 0.57 0.99 0.99 48 -0.07 -0.07 1.10 1.08 0.96 0.96 72 -0.10 -0.10 1.63 1.61 0.91 0.92 96 -0.12 2.11 0.86 120 -0.14 2.65 0.77 144 -0.16 3.10 0.69 168 -0.20 3.54 0.59 192 -0.29 3.91 0.50 216 -0.31 4.30 0.40 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.06 0.64 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 0.10 0.10 1.11 1.09 0.94 0.95 72 0.14 0.12 1.58 1.57 0.88 0.89 96 0.17 2.02 0.81 120 0.21 2.41 0.73 144 0.21 2.78 0.63 168 0.16 3.06 0.55 192 0.13 3.34 0.47 216 0.16 3.61 0.38 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 2.80 2.74 48 -0.03 -0.02 5.24 5.14 72 -0.04 -0.02 7.44 7.38 96 -0.01 9.44 120 0.00 11.39 144 0.00 13.33 168 -0.09 14.80 192 -0.15 16.35 216 -0.03 17.78 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.09 3.56 3.49 48 -0.21 -0.22 6.26 6.15 72 -0.25 -0.27 8.97 8.86 96 -0.23 11.60 120 -0.22 14.32 144 -0.28 17.07 168 -0.44 19.34 192 -0.48 21.78 216 -0.41 23.99 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.17 -2.05 8.08 8.10 0.95 0.95 48 -2.53 -1.93 9.91 10.58 0.95 0.95 72 -2.80 -3.58 13.16 14.30 0.94 0.93 96 -4.63 18.90 0.90 120 -3.92 22.97 0.85 144 -3.33 26.29 0.79 168 -3.97 31.34 0.72 192 -5.11 35.13 0.67 216 -4.56 37.07 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.39 -5.55 11.11 9.96 0.95 0.96 48 -6.09 -5.73 14.41 13.60 0.96 0.96 72 -6.84 -7.35 19.06 18.60 0.94 0.95 96 -8.94 25.16 0.92 120 -8.93 30.91 0.88 144 -8.87 36.87 0.82 168 -9.65 43.90 0.76 192 -10.69 49.14 0.71 216 -10.36 51.93 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.42 -6.43 14.57 13.26 0.96 0.97 48 -9.04 -8.18 21.20 19.93 0.96 0.97 72 -11.43 -11.08 29.77 28.92 0.95 0.95 96 -14.92 39.45 0.92 120 -17.71 49.88 0.88 144 -20.01 59.13 0.84 168 -22.75 69.82 0.77 192 -22.33 77.02 0.72 216 -21.99 80.93 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.84 1.64 1.70 0.83 0.84 48 -0.76 -0.91 1.83 1.86 0.86 0.87 72 -0.78 -0.93 2.04 2.06 0.86 0.87 96 -0.98 2.28 0.86 120 -1.01 2.57 0.82 144 -1.00 2.84 0.77 168 -0.97 3.11 0.71 192 -0.96 3.38 0.66 216 -0.97 3.58 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.09 0.81 0.85 0.84 0.83 48 0.02 0.05 0.98 1.03 0.87 0.86 72 -0.05 0.02 1.20 1.23 0.86 0.85 96 -0.05 1.46 0.83 120 -0.13 1.68 0.79 144 -0.22 1.92 0.74 168 -0.32 2.16 0.68 192 -0.33 2.29 0.64 216 -0.36 2.37 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.36 1.04 1.03 0.86 0.88 48 0.33 0.37 1.30 1.29 0.86 0.86 72 0.33 0.33 1.53 1.48 0.85 0.86 96 0.28 1.75 0.82 120 0.19 1.94 0.79 144 0.13 2.15 0.71 168 0.09 2.36 0.64 192 0.19 2.50 0.60 216 0.27 2.58 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -1.12 3.50 3.84 48 -0.84 -1.20 3.94 4.34 72 -0.99 -1.26 4.54 4.87 96 -1.37 5.46 120 -1.44 6.00 144 -1.41 6.60 168 -1.47 7.10 192 -1.59 7.40 216 -1.63 7.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.73 3.80 3.81 48 -0.95 -0.89 4.71 4.58 72 -1.01 -0.95 5.71 5.58 96 -0.94 6.62 120 -0.96 7.61 144 -0.93 8.55 168 -1.01 9.48 192 -1.03 9.76 216 -1.05 10.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.00 -1.04 5.63 5.50 48 -1.25 -1.30 7.43 7.17 72 -1.34 -1.37 9.27 8.97 96 -1.39 10.81 120 -1.35 12.46 144 -1.32 13.84 168 -1.33 15.60 192 -1.49 16.35 216 -1.28 17.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.12 -2.89 9.04 7.77 0.95 0.96 48 -5.73 -5.42 11.53 11.20 0.95 0.95 72 -3.33 -4.20 13.95 13.63 0.94 0.95 96 0.21 16.37 0.93 120 3.01 22.11 0.89 144 3.98 27.30 0.88 168 4.62 33.22 0.83 192 3.86 37.97 0.77 216 6.87 44.20 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.63 -5.84 12.29 10.54 0.97 0.97 48 -10.65 -9.59 17.23 16.27 0.97 0.97 72 -8.60 -8.93 21.05 20.82 0.95 0.95 96 -4.10 25.62 0.94 120 -0.15 34.37 0.91 144 0.69 40.97 0.89 168 1.18 50.14 0.88 192 -0.72 62.11 0.79 216 -0.97 73.71 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.88 -5.23 16.18 13.68 0.97 0.97 48 -11.99 -9.66 23.91 22.29 0.97 0.97 72 -10.32 -9.60 32.86 30.64 0.95 0.96 96 -4.89 40.59 0.94 120 0.07 54.50 0.92 144 2.54 62.71 0.90 168 3.25 75.74 0.89 192 -2.13 96.45 0.80 216 -5.67 116.37 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.19 1.39 1.30 0.86 0.84 48 -0.65 -0.36 1.67 1.56 0.89 0.88 72 -0.67 -0.45 1.92 1.81 0.88 0.87 96 -0.36 2.01 0.87 120 -0.32 2.29 0.84 144 -0.34 2.57 0.81 168 -0.34 2.88 0.79 192 -0.38 3.42 0.71 216 -0.65 3.73 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.02 0.81 0.81 0.89 0.89 48 -0.12 -0.03 1.04 1.03 0.91 0.91 72 -0.12 -0.03 1.28 1.25 0.89 0.90 96 -0.04 1.53 0.87 120 0.03 1.84 0.83 144 0.05 1.98 0.81 168 0.09 2.34 0.79 192 -0.04 2.74 0.69 216 -0.20 3.10 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.65 0.68 1.37 1.37 0.89 0.89 48 0.75 0.76 1.71 1.73 0.88 0.88 72 0.80 0.75 2.05 2.06 0.84 0.85 96 0.89 2.43 0.80 120 0.96 2.83 0.71 144 1.18 3.11 0.65 168 1.13 3.34 0.61 192 1.03 3.47 0.57 216 1.09 3.78 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.54 3.73 3.55 48 -0.76 -0.61 4.18 3.99 72 -0.80 -0.68 4.68 4.40 96 -0.77 4.94 120 -0.97 5.78 144 -1.14 6.03 168 -1.32 6.53 192 -1.12 7.11 216 -1.05 7.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.52 3.74 3.68 48 -0.84 -0.93 4.72 4.50 72 -1.00 -1.19 5.73 5.52 96 -1.23 6.64 120 -1.45 8.00 144 -1.62 8.65 168 -1.77 9.84 192 -1.81 11.09 216 -1.76 12.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.60 5.59 5.29 48 -0.84 -1.01 7.22 6.97 72 -1.17 -1.24 9.53 8.91 96 -1.41 11.00 120 -1.76 13.26 144 -1.78 14.45 168 -2.26 16.20 192 -2.36 19.33 216 -2.40 22.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -1.97 8.91 9.73 0.92 0.91 48 0.41 0.01 11.38 11.66 0.93 0.92 72 0.34 1.32 14.74 14.30 0.90 0.89 96 0.27 17.03 0.85 120 -0.21 20.30 0.83 144 0.87 23.33 0.77 168 2.03 23.96 0.75 192 4.70 27.14 0.68 216 5.85 28.33 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.16 -2.22 10.76 10.52 0.90 0.90 48 -1.06 0.75 12.88 12.81 0.92 0.92 72 -0.51 2.79 16.48 16.56 0.91 0.90 96 1.39 20.87 0.87 120 -0.14 25.08 0.85 144 0.09 27.84 0.82 168 0.20 29.38 0.80 192 1.25 32.73 0.76 216 0.78 35.33 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.46 -9.48 18.92 18.09 0.92 0.92 48 -11.14 -8.73 23.76 22.91 0.93 0.93 72 -12.77 -8.73 31.16 28.95 0.91 0.91 96 -12.39 37.05 0.89 120 -17.34 46.12 0.86 144 -19.65 50.41 0.84 168 -21.57 54.41 0.82 192 -22.90 61.52 0.79 216 -26.48 67.65 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.23 1.62 1.60 0.76 0.78 48 -0.28 -0.13 1.78 1.81 0.81 0.81 72 -0.20 -0.02 1.93 1.96 0.81 0.81 96 0.03 2.18 0.80 120 0.03 2.46 0.78 144 0.03 2.66 0.75 168 0.05 2.81 0.73 192 -0.01 3.00 0.69 216 -0.04 3.24 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 118 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 0.94 0.96 0.79 0.78 48 -0.16 -0.12 1.10 1.10 0.83 0.82 72 -0.24 -0.19 1.31 1.29 0.82 0.81 96 -0.32 1.50 0.80 120 -0.44 1.72 0.78 144 -0.57 1.89 0.75 168 -0.67 2.04 0.73 192 -0.82 2.28 0.69 216 -0.92 2.46 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.37 1.23 1.19 0.82 0.81 48 -0.59 -0.55 1.54 1.45 0.81 0.81 72 -0.75 -0.69 1.81 1.73 0.79 0.78 96 -0.80 1.96 0.75 120 -0.96 2.18 0.73 144 -1.07 2.34 0.70 168 -1.13 2.44 0.71 192 -1.21 2.71 0.65 216 -1.33 2.87 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.02 -0.66 3.69 3.63 48 -1.18 -0.73 4.24 4.09 72 -1.25 -0.85 4.78 4.62 96 -0.97 5.23 120 -1.03 5.78 144 -1.07 6.22 168 -1.09 6.43 192 -1.12 6.78 216 -1.02 7.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 116 12 UTC = 115 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.83 3.81 3.78 48 -1.19 -1.00 4.63 4.60 72 -1.40 -1.17 5.49 5.51 96 -1.35 6.32 120 -1.41 7.10 144 -1.39 7.65 168 -1.44 8.18 192 -1.44 8.75 216 -1.27 9.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.93 6.13 6.22 48 -1.32 -1.26 8.20 8.27 72 -1.37 -1.49 9.98 10.02 96 -1.55 11.67 120 -1.56 12.91 144 -1.69 13.79 168 -1.53 14.78 192 -1.27 15.72 216 -0.94 16.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 132 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.38 -2.70 6.30 6.77 0.98 0.98 48 -2.17 -0.77 8.17 9.03 0.99 0.99 72 -2.17 -1.33 11.90 13.83 0.98 0.98 96 -4.65 22.37 0.95 120 -9.69 31.92 0.91 144 -12.75 38.19 0.87 168 -13.31 44.06 0.83 192 -12.19 50.79 0.77 216 -15.43 55.78 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.79 -8.12 10.57 11.20 0.97 0.97 48 -7.14 -6.39 13.78 13.18 0.98 0.98 72 -7.66 -7.02 18.64 19.54 0.97 0.98 96 -10.51 31.35 0.94 120 -16.36 42.45 0.91 144 -22.20 51.03 0.87 168 -24.38 59.44 0.84 192 -24.32 72.97 0.76 216 -28.90 78.70 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.76 -9.57 13.53 13.94 0.97 0.98 48 -5.43 -7.11 17.56 17.00 0.98 0.98 72 -6.63 -6.81 24.03 24.63 0.97 0.96 96 -9.58 36.26 0.93 120 -17.06 49.51 0.89 144 -25.64 59.63 0.88 168 -29.93 73.39 0.83 192 -30.10 88.82 0.78 216 -35.39 96.64 0.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.33 1.37 1.23 0.76 0.83 48 -0.41 -0.37 1.50 1.38 0.82 0.87 72 -0.46 -0.35 1.66 1.57 0.82 0.82 96 -0.37 1.79 0.77 120 -0.50 2.19 0.75 144 -0.59 2.39 0.73 168 -0.66 2.51 0.67 192 -0.74 2.89 0.59 216 -0.69 2.93 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.11 0.96 0.98 0.87 0.85 48 0.00 -0.08 1.14 1.12 0.90 0.88 72 0.00 -0.09 1.31 1.30 0.89 0.87 96 -0.05 1.54 0.84 120 -0.13 1.82 0.81 144 -0.30 2.08 0.81 168 -0.48 2.34 0.78 192 -0.50 2.76 0.71 216 -0.64 2.87 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.46 0.54 1.25 1.29 0.87 0.85 48 0.56 0.61 1.50 1.53 0.88 0.88 72 0.52 0.72 1.72 1.89 0.90 0.88 96 0.81 2.27 0.86 120 0.87 2.55 0.85 144 0.85 2.70 0.81 168 0.82 2.92 0.79 192 0.83 3.17 0.76 216 1.09 3.47 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.16 3.52 3.58 48 -0.12 -0.08 3.89 4.07 72 -0.17 0.00 4.47 4.73 96 -0.18 5.61 120 -0.28 6.90 144 -0.45 7.86 168 -0.40 8.12 192 -0.44 8.98 216 -0.56 9.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.42 4.29 4.36 48 -0.49 -0.37 5.11 5.17 72 -0.36 -0.37 6.23 6.36 96 -0.36 7.77 120 -0.33 9.20 144 -0.40 10.59 168 -0.05 11.57 192 -0.02 12.71 216 -0.14 13.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.45 5.22 5.03 48 -1.10 -0.65 6.30 5.98 72 -1.27 -0.93 7.68 7.39 96 -0.86 9.16 120 -0.59 11.11 144 -0.58 12.76 168 -0.19 14.97 192 -0.28 16.70 216 -0.56 18.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.86 -3.12 9.58 9.64 0.74 0.67 48 -3.80 -3.38 10.06 10.36 0.83 0.79 72 -3.89 -4.37 10.70 11.40 0.79 0.77 96 -5.35 12.23 0.69 120 -5.72 12.75 0.68 144 -6.00 13.52 0.71 168 -6.33 14.55 0.67 192 -7.13 16.09 0.57 216 -7.45 16.99 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.27 -5.12 13.18 12.30 0.63 0.60 48 -6.56 -5.83 13.94 13.41 0.76 0.72 72 -7.50 -7.34 14.93 14.82 0.76 0.71 96 -8.98 15.80 0.68 120 -10.02 16.55 0.70 144 -10.78 17.63 0.70 168 -11.65 19.09 0.67 192 -12.83 20.74 0.64 216 -13.41 21.79 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.22 -10.41 16.98 16.65 0.55 0.57 48 -11.14 -11.68 18.08 18.20 0.67 0.68 72 -12.17 -12.95 19.22 19.75 0.69 0.70 96 -14.43 21.12 0.70 120 -15.62 22.28 0.70 144 -16.85 23.73 0.72 168 -18.54 25.68 0.70 192 -20.91 28.21 0.68 216 -22.32 30.01 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.24 1.08 1.05 0.45 0.46 48 -0.18 -0.23 1.12 1.10 0.57 0.56 72 -0.18 -0.21 1.14 1.10 0.59 0.60 96 -0.20 1.11 0.57 120 -0.19 1.13 0.57 144 -0.21 1.18 0.56 168 -0.25 1.22 0.56 192 -0.29 1.31 0.52 216 -0.31 1.35 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.23 0.87 0.88 0.51 0.52 48 -0.36 -0.30 0.94 0.93 0.57 0.60 72 -0.39 -0.31 0.96 0.95 0.61 0.62 96 -0.32 0.99 0.60 120 -0.32 1.03 0.61 144 -0.35 1.08 0.60 168 -0.37 1.13 0.58 192 -0.41 1.19 0.54 216 -0.43 1.24 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.07 0.69 0.62 0.54 0.53 48 0.17 0.05 0.74 0.67 0.60 0.60 72 0.16 0.05 0.77 0.72 0.63 0.64 96 0.05 0.76 0.65 120 0.05 0.81 0.63 144 0.01 0.87 0.60 168 -0.03 0.90 0.58 192 -0.08 0.96 0.56 216 -0.11 1.01 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.58 3.31 3.41 48 -0.70 -0.73 3.60 3.70 72 -0.87 -0.86 3.88 3.99 96 -0.94 4.24 120 -1.05 4.39 144 -1.10 4.72 168 -1.13 4.92 192 -1.24 5.18 216 -1.38 5.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -0.89 3.87 3.91 48 -1.10 -1.06 4.23 4.22 72 -1.25 -1.18 4.51 4.50 96 -1.22 4.78 120 -1.25 5.12 144 -1.28 5.52 168 -1.40 6.06 192 -1.52 6.58 216 -1.54 7.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.85 4.90 5.06 48 -0.97 -1.00 5.73 5.95 72 -1.10 -1.08 6.55 6.86 96 -1.15 7.61 120 -1.20 8.04 144 -1.21 8.65 168 -1.25 9.19 192 -1.30 9.81 216 -1.33 10.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.02 -2.91 9.09 9.24 0.95 0.95 48 -2.53 -2.94 11.67 11.86 0.96 0.96 72 -1.80 -2.32 15.43 15.42 0.95 0.95 96 -1.49 19.81 0.92 120 -0.55 23.96 0.89 144 0.17 28.44 0.85 168 0.70 32.99 0.80 192 1.29 37.48 0.73 216 2.14 40.59 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 317 12 UTC = 314 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.65 -4.77 12.01 11.25 0.96 0.96 48 -5.55 -5.01 15.89 15.28 0.96 0.96 72 -5.04 -4.56 20.76 20.69 0.95 0.95 96 -4.18 26.98 0.93 120 -3.61 33.63 0.90 144 -3.49 39.78 0.87 168 -3.57 46.74 0.83 192 -3.88 53.91 0.77 216 -4.05 59.98 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 333 12 UTC = 329 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.62 -7.51 17.26 16.69 0.96 0.96 48 -9.99 -9.21 23.79 23.24 0.97 0.96 72 -10.88 -10.11 32.75 31.87 0.95 0.95 96 -11.45 42.43 0.93 120 -12.96 53.63 0.90 144 -14.36 62.35 0.88 168 -16.10 72.59 0.84 192 -17.63 84.18 0.79 216 -19.59 94.71 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 334 12 UTC = 330 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.50 1.64 1.61 0.84 0.84 48 -0.60 -0.50 1.84 1.81 0.88 0.88 72 -0.56 -0.47 2.05 2.01 0.87 0.87 96 -0.44 2.28 0.85 120 -0.42 2.59 0.83 144 -0.43 2.88 0.79 168 -0.43 3.14 0.75 192 -0.46 3.47 0.70 216 -0.51 3.76 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 384 12 UTC = 377 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.01 0.91 0.92 0.87 0.86 48 -0.07 -0.05 1.09 1.11 0.90 0.89 72 -0.12 -0.10 1.36 1.33 0.89 0.88 96 -0.17 1.60 0.86 120 -0.23 1.88 0.83 144 -0.31 2.09 0.80 168 -0.40 2.36 0.77 192 -0.49 2.61 0.72 216 -0.57 2.83 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 412 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.13 1.30 1.30 0.87 0.87 48 0.06 0.06 1.61 1.59 0.86 0.86 72 0.01 0.00 1.93 1.91 0.83 0.83 96 -0.05 2.23 0.78 120 -0.13 2.51 0.74 144 -0.15 2.76 0.68 168 -0.19 2.95 0.65 192 -0.22 3.11 0.61 216 -0.26 3.29 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 408 12 UTC = 401 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.72 3.63 3.63 48 -0.94 -0.82 4.14 4.13 72 -1.02 -0.91 4.80 4.70 96 -0.99 5.34 120 -1.06 6.04 144 -1.12 6.49 168 -1.19 6.88 192 -1.22 7.32 216 -1.19 7.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 368 12 UTC = 364 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.68 3.79 3.76 48 -0.97 -0.89 4.72 4.61 72 -1.12 -1.05 5.81 5.70 96 -1.13 6.77 120 -1.20 7.80 144 -1.21 8.63 168 -1.27 9.50 192 -1.28 10.22 216 -1.22 11.04 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 397 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.85 5.63 5.64 48 -1.10 -1.15 7.52 7.50 72 -1.28 -1.33 9.62 9.54 96 -1.40 11.45 120 -1.42 13.12 144 -1.47 14.45 168 -1.47 15.93 192 -1.40 17.33 216 -1.26 18.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 393 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -0.30 8.03 10.02 0.97 0.98 48 -1.18 -0.35 11.04 13.92 0.98 0.97 72 -1.54 -2.87 16.36 19.49 0.97 0.96 96 -4.06 28.44 0.92 120 -3.98 35.70 0.88 144 -5.72 44.49 0.84 168 -5.99 51.11 0.79 192 -8.07 58.11 0.76 216 -10.21 62.20 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.50 -8.29 12.64 14.70 0.98 0.98 48 -8.57 -9.81 17.84 21.70 0.98 0.97 72 -9.12 -11.94 25.28 30.05 0.97 0.96 96 -13.59 40.81 0.93 120 -14.36 50.17 0.90 144 -17.49 61.87 0.85 168 -20.92 73.71 0.82 192 -24.18 87.71 0.75 216 -25.74 94.21 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.44 -10.70 17.72 18.86 0.97 0.98 48 -9.21 -12.66 24.17 27.31 0.98 0.98 72 -10.27 -14.52 33.51 38.47 0.97 0.96 96 -16.37 50.84 0.94 120 -18.17 66.09 0.90 144 -23.17 80.56 0.87 168 -28.35 98.72 0.84 192 -32.64 117.97 0.78 216 -31.56 128.20 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -1.03 1.75 1.88 0.84 0.89 48 -0.92 -1.16 1.93 2.12 0.88 0.90 72 -0.95 -1.14 2.14 2.33 0.87 0.88 96 -1.11 2.60 0.85 120 -1.14 3.01 0.82 144 -1.09 3.39 0.81 168 -1.18 3.87 0.74 192 -1.18 4.19 0.67 216 -1.12 4.35 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.13 1.01 1.01 0.91 0.93 48 -0.11 -0.18 1.23 1.25 0.92 0.93 72 -0.12 -0.19 1.50 1.55 0.92 0.92 96 -0.26 1.87 0.90 120 -0.36 2.39 0.86 144 -0.42 2.63 0.84 168 -0.59 3.05 0.81 192 -0.74 3.66 0.73 216 -0.64 3.77 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.41 0.52 1.30 1.31 0.88 0.89 48 0.47 0.51 1.55 1.53 0.89 0.89 72 0.42 0.53 1.78 1.81 0.90 0.88 96 0.57 2.10 0.87 120 0.57 2.35 0.85 144 0.54 2.62 0.81 168 0.49 2.84 0.78 192 0.49 3.14 0.74 216 0.58 3.35 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.34 4.32 4.36 48 -0.44 -0.37 4.77 4.91 72 -0.40 -0.25 5.38 5.61 96 -0.28 6.39 120 -0.40 7.35 144 -0.43 8.67 168 -0.68 9.12 192 -0.49 10.24 216 -0.46 10.93 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.08 4.57 4.77 48 -0.25 -0.02 5.72 5.94 72 -0.11 0.02 7.20 7.49 96 -0.14 8.75 120 -0.22 10.50 144 -0.34 12.39 168 -0.28 13.52 192 -0.31 14.92 216 -0.26 16.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.25 5.46 5.62 48 -0.55 -0.31 6.75 7.16 72 -0.59 -0.27 8.59 9.12 96 -0.22 11.22 120 -0.36 13.65 144 -0.50 16.39 168 -0.26 18.91 192 -0.32 20.69 216 -0.15 23.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 44 ---------------------------------------------------------