VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY OCTOBER 2012 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.14 0.88 0.89 0.99 0.99 17.4 18.1 48 0.23 0.23 1.59 1.57 0.98 0.98 27.0 27.7 72 0.30 0.29 2.37 2.42 0.96 0.96 35.9 36.9 96 0.35 3.45 0.91 46.6 120 0.39 4.61 0.84 55.7 144 0.41 5.89 0.74 64.6 168 0.45 7.04 0.63 72.0 192 0.51 8.15 0.50 78.5 216 0.59 9.01 0.40 82.7 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.59 6.61 6.54 1.00 1.00 10.7 10.6 48 -0.91 -1.00 13.45 13.34 0.99 0.99 19.2 19.0 72 -1.34 -1.44 22.07 22.28 0.97 0.97 27.7 27.7 96 -1.94 33.55 0.94 36.5 120 -2.85 46.65 0.88 45.2 144 -3.61 60.78 0.80 53.2 168 -4.15 74.60 0.69 60.3 192 -4.84 88.31 0.57 66.5 216 -5.20 100.12 0.46 71.6 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.44 9.00 9.12 1.00 1.00 8.9 8.9 48 -1.12 -1.17 18.23 18.41 0.99 0.99 15.7 15.7 72 -2.38 -2.29 30.62 31.00 0.97 0.97 23.3 23.4 96 -3.82 46.70 0.94 31.2 120 -5.70 65.35 0.88 39.2 144 -7.55 85.80 0.80 46.9 168 -9.20 104.98 0.70 53.4 192 -10.89 124.82 0.59 59.2 216 -12.29 141.84 0.47 64.3 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.02 0.47 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 -0.06 -0.06 0.87 0.86 0.97 0.97 72 -0.12 -0.11 1.29 1.29 0.94 0.94 96 -0.17 1.79 0.88 120 -0.24 2.31 0.80 144 -0.29 2.86 0.70 168 -0.34 3.37 0.59 192 -0.39 3.83 0.48 216 -0.45 4.26 0.37 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.07 0.61 0.61 0.98 0.98 48 0.09 0.09 1.01 1.02 0.95 0.95 72 0.09 0.10 1.44 1.46 0.89 0.88 96 0.10 1.92 0.79 120 0.08 2.35 0.68 144 0.04 2.77 0.55 168 0.00 3.09 0.44 192 -0.04 3.36 0.35 216 -0.06 3.60 0.26 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.06 2.14 2.15 48 -0.18 -0.15 3.84 3.83 72 -0.27 -0.24 5.51 5.54 96 -0.36 7.34 120 -0.44 9.19 144 -0.50 11.00 168 -0.54 12.59 192 -0.57 13.99 216 -0.53 15.25 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.22 3.31 3.33 48 -0.44 -0.38 5.57 5.62 72 -0.60 -0.52 8.15 8.28 96 -0.64 10.91 120 -0.80 13.78 144 -0.88 16.64 168 -0.94 19.00 192 -0.94 21.21 216 -0.94 23.12 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.65 2.95 2.98 0.98 0.98 25.5 25.9 48 -0.78 -0.70 4.21 4.24 0.95 0.95 34.4 34.7 72 -0.82 -0.74 5.21 5.33 0.93 0.93 39.7 40.0 96 -0.69 6.28 0.90 44.0 120 -0.68 7.20 0.86 47.6 144 -0.68 8.25 0.82 50.6 168 -1.07 9.37 0.77 53.3 192 -1.86 10.52 0.72 55.4 216 -2.13 11.47 0.66 57.8 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.47 4.07 4.16 0.98 0.98 21.7 21.5 48 -0.92 -1.32 6.19 6.54 0.96 0.95 30.5 30.3 72 -1.78 -2.18 8.37 8.69 0.93 0.92 36.6 36.6 96 -3.19 10.68 0.88 41.5 120 -4.66 13.26 0.83 45.9 144 -6.13 16.08 0.75 50.5 168 -7.86 18.67 0.67 54.5 192 -9.77 21.03 0.60 57.8 216 -11.46 22.92 0.55 60.3 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.00 0.40 0.42 0.96 0.96 48 0.09 0.08 0.65 0.67 0.89 0.91 72 0.13 0.12 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.86 96 0.13 0.95 0.82 120 0.11 1.05 0.78 144 0.09 1.13 0.75 168 0.06 1.21 0.71 192 0.04 1.28 0.68 216 0.02 1.37 0.63 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.08 0.31 0.31 0.94 0.93 48 -0.07 -0.10 0.47 0.46 0.85 0.84 72 -0.07 -0.10 0.58 0.59 0.77 0.73 96 -0.12 0.67 0.65 120 -0.16 0.74 0.59 144 -0.20 0.80 0.52 168 -0.24 0.86 0.46 192 -0.27 0.90 0.41 216 -0.32 0.94 0.37 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.02 1.52 1.51 48 -0.03 0.00 2.31 2.27 72 -0.08 -0.05 2.83 2.80 96 -0.10 3.20 120 -0.19 3.51 144 -0.25 3.79 168 -0.28 4.05 192 -0.27 4.30 216 -0.26 4.53 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.28 2.95 2.99 48 -0.48 -0.49 4.43 4.48 72 -0.66 -0.63 5.59 5.65 96 -0.71 6.60 120 -0.76 7.44 144 -0.78 8.23 168 -0.79 8.93 192 -0.79 9.62 216 -0.75 10.29 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 1.01 0.98 0.99 0.99 14.0 13.6 48 -0.04 -0.04 1.94 1.92 0.98 0.98 24.3 24.0 72 -0.08 -0.07 3.07 3.05 0.94 0.94 33.7 33.5 96 -0.13 4.38 0.87 42.4 120 -0.15 5.70 0.79 50.3 144 -0.15 6.80 0.70 55.6 168 -0.16 7.70 0.61 60.3 192 -0.11 8.51 0.52 64.3 216 -0.14 9.42 0.41 67.7 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.11 9.34 9.04 1.00 1.00 10.9 10.7 48 -0.41 -0.39 18.76 18.76 0.98 0.98 19.6 19.6 72 -0.93 -0.77 30.95 30.99 0.95 0.96 27.9 27.9 96 -1.32 45.95 0.90 35.9 120 -1.65 61.08 0.82 43.3 144 -1.71 73.10 0.75 48.9 168 -1.78 84.35 0.65 53.8 192 -1.98 94.52 0.56 57.7 216 -3.01 103.55 0.47 61.5 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.49 11.77 11.33 1.00 1.00 8.9 8.7 48 -1.40 -1.18 23.14 23.21 0.99 0.99 15.4 15.4 72 -2.37 -1.89 38.38 38.43 0.96 0.96 22.2 22.3 96 -2.55 57.29 0.91 29.2 120 -2.91 77.34 0.84 36.3 144 -3.43 93.84 0.77 42.1 168 -4.15 110.03 0.67 47.1 192 -4.87 124.06 0.57 50.9 216 -6.33 136.73 0.47 55.0 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.57 0.55 0.99 0.99 48 -0.03 -0.03 1.05 1.05 0.96 0.96 72 -0.06 -0.03 1.56 1.56 0.91 0.91 96 -0.04 2.10 0.84 120 -0.04 2.62 0.75 144 -0.07 3.09 0.65 168 -0.08 3.50 0.54 192 -0.13 3.81 0.46 216 -0.18 4.11 0.37 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.63 0.62 0.98 0.99 48 -0.03 -0.02 1.11 1.10 0.95 0.95 72 -0.03 -0.03 1.58 1.58 0.90 0.90 96 -0.03 2.07 0.83 120 -0.02 2.51 0.75 144 -0.02 2.88 0.67 168 -0.07 3.23 0.59 192 -0.09 3.51 0.52 216 -0.07 3.76 0.46 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.05 2.63 2.57 48 -0.10 -0.08 4.81 4.80 72 -0.10 -0.10 6.87 6.90 96 -0.08 8.98 120 -0.06 10.98 144 -0.08 12.54 168 -0.12 13.98 192 -0.22 15.14 216 -0.23 16.32 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.12 3.51 3.46 48 -0.18 -0.20 6.09 6.10 72 -0.23 -0.24 8.64 8.72 96 -0.22 11.40 120 -0.20 14.30 144 -0.24 16.79 168 -0.33 19.09 192 -0.41 20.98 216 -0.42 23.00 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.47 -1.62 8.13 7.88 0.98 0.98 48 -0.33 -0.80 12.06 12.04 0.98 0.98 72 0.87 -0.54 17.21 17.42 0.97 0.97 96 -0.61 23.69 0.95 120 -0.19 31.34 0.90 144 -1.24 41.76 0.84 168 -0.30 50.66 0.79 192 0.67 57.03 0.71 216 4.52 58.65 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.68 -5.28 11.23 10.58 0.99 0.99 48 -3.87 -4.89 15.83 15.87 0.99 0.99 72 -2.85 -5.76 23.82 23.24 0.98 0.98 96 -6.83 33.31 0.96 120 -6.59 43.59 0.94 144 -9.00 58.01 0.89 168 -9.81 72.69 0.84 192 -10.39 86.77 0.78 216 -8.22 94.05 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.74 -5.69 14.40 14.25 0.99 0.99 48 -4.10 -5.20 22.66 22.56 0.99 0.99 72 -4.15 -7.17 35.74 33.87 0.98 0.98 96 -11.01 49.62 0.96 120 -11.98 66.41 0.94 144 -15.00 88.47 0.90 168 -15.58 109.03 0.86 192 -16.20 131.44 0.80 216 -14.55 145.79 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.60 1.52 1.74 0.93 0.92 48 -0.40 -0.60 1.71 1.90 0.95 0.95 72 -0.38 -0.61 2.00 2.19 0.94 0.94 96 -0.62 2.63 0.92 120 -0.67 3.05 0.89 144 -0.68 3.66 0.86 168 -0.76 4.52 0.80 192 -0.96 5.30 0.72 216 -1.10 5.94 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.04 0.89 0.91 0.95 0.95 48 -0.06 -0.06 1.19 1.21 0.96 0.96 72 -0.11 -0.17 1.61 1.58 0.95 0.95 96 -0.24 2.04 0.92 120 -0.25 2.47 0.90 144 -0.34 3.15 0.86 168 -0.41 3.73 0.81 192 -0.40 4.20 0.76 216 -0.46 4.73 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.42 0.51 1.18 1.21 0.92 0.92 48 0.46 0.54 1.49 1.49 0.91 0.91 72 0.47 0.55 1.82 1.81 0.88 0.88 96 0.45 2.16 0.80 120 0.35 2.44 0.79 144 0.32 2.80 0.75 168 0.32 3.12 0.68 192 0.26 3.46 0.59 216 0.21 3.79 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.72 3.90 3.95 48 -0.76 -0.83 4.44 4.51 72 -0.82 -0.87 5.19 5.27 96 -0.93 6.25 120 -0.90 7.26 144 -0.93 8.51 168 -0.99 10.01 192 -1.16 10.63 216 -1.47 11.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.46 4.16 4.13 48 -0.67 -0.53 5.23 5.13 72 -0.69 -0.64 6.57 6.44 96 -0.81 8.00 120 -0.88 9.53 144 -0.71 11.20 168 -0.47 13.16 192 -0.58 14.56 216 -0.74 15.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.61 5.66 5.64 48 -0.70 -0.74 7.56 7.41 72 -0.82 -0.71 10.09 9.91 96 -0.97 12.41 120 -1.06 15.09 144 -0.85 18.32 168 -0.61 21.00 192 -0.48 23.48 216 -0.46 25.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.96 -3.63 9.32 8.74 0.97 0.97 48 -3.14 -3.44 13.48 12.20 0.96 0.97 72 0.31 -0.13 18.88 17.43 0.95 0.95 96 1.95 26.71 0.92 120 3.02 36.41 0.85 144 5.60 44.56 0.81 168 9.81 52.51 0.75 192 12.13 64.97 0.65 216 18.95 77.08 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.84 -7.19 13.22 11.95 0.98 0.98 48 -8.18 -9.20 18.86 17.46 0.97 0.98 72 -6.28 -7.64 25.93 24.02 0.96 0.97 96 -5.59 37.82 0.95 120 -1.52 52.22 0.90 144 4.91 65.31 0.85 168 10.18 80.33 0.79 192 10.07 99.97 0.71 216 15.74 114.83 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.67 -8.37 17.08 15.65 0.98 0.98 48 -9.69 -12.42 25.39 24.11 0.98 0.98 72 -10.52 -12.22 36.63 36.52 0.97 0.97 96 -9.44 54.33 0.95 120 -3.11 76.92 0.90 144 7.53 95.49 0.85 168 14.59 119.17 0.78 192 11.68 145.59 0.73 216 16.20 160.52 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.22 1.30 1.18 0.88 0.88 48 -0.42 -0.37 1.49 1.41 0.91 0.90 72 -0.52 -0.46 1.79 1.68 0.89 0.90 96 -0.47 2.14 0.88 120 -0.37 2.70 0.83 144 -0.20 3.16 0.76 168 -0.16 3.51 0.74 192 -0.34 4.17 0.71 216 -0.34 4.54 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.12 0.85 0.81 0.93 0.93 48 -0.19 -0.25 1.15 1.11 0.93 0.93 72 -0.30 -0.36 1.54 1.57 0.91 0.91 96 -0.30 2.10 0.88 120 -0.13 2.69 0.81 144 0.15 3.03 0.74 168 0.17 3.51 0.64 192 0.01 4.06 0.62 216 -0.09 4.24 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.45 0.43 1.23 1.22 0.90 0.89 48 0.53 0.47 1.59 1.49 0.88 0.89 72 0.47 0.45 1.85 1.84 0.83 0.85 96 0.47 2.28 0.78 120 0.30 2.72 0.67 144 0.37 3.06 0.64 168 0.47 3.17 0.60 192 0.49 3.31 0.57 216 0.57 3.57 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.68 3.85 3.83 48 -0.70 -0.74 4.49 4.40 72 -0.73 -0.95 5.45 5.28 96 -0.80 6.66 120 -0.49 8.10 144 -0.61 8.65 168 -0.97 9.25 192 -1.00 10.10 216 -0.79 10.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.43 4.20 4.03 48 -0.39 -0.49 5.41 5.19 72 -0.43 -0.57 7.05 6.61 96 -0.74 8.84 120 -0.70 11.34 144 -1.25 12.99 168 -1.79 14.25 192 -2.09 15.60 216 -2.32 16.93 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.60 5.33 5.30 48 -0.49 -0.58 7.34 7.08 72 -0.52 -0.28 9.55 9.71 96 -0.59 12.62 120 -0.83 16.68 144 -1.44 19.74 168 -2.01 22.30 192 -2.20 24.42 216 -2.65 26.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.07 1.62 9.80 8.56 0.97 0.96 48 2.79 3.48 12.83 12.08 0.96 0.96 72 2.79 4.40 16.76 15.76 0.94 0.93 96 3.85 20.04 0.90 120 4.41 23.48 0.85 144 6.15 28.16 0.81 168 7.11 32.85 0.76 192 8.59 37.74 0.72 216 10.35 46.07 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.11 -0.63 10.65 10.95 0.97 0.97 48 -1.60 1.40 13.84 14.85 0.97 0.96 72 -2.52 2.22 19.54 19.35 0.95 0.95 96 1.07 24.73 0.93 120 0.62 30.62 0.90 144 1.10 36.45 0.86 168 1.16 43.75 0.80 192 1.76 51.85 0.74 216 2.74 60.43 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.05 -1.93 15.37 15.37 0.97 0.97 48 -4.79 -0.03 19.42 21.40 0.98 0.97 72 -7.94 -0.57 27.56 28.05 0.96 0.95 96 -3.35 34.06 0.94 120 -6.11 41.38 0.90 144 -7.66 50.59 0.87 168 -7.46 61.50 0.83 192 -6.61 74.38 0.77 216 -8.54 85.65 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.89 1.96 1.99 0.88 0.90 48 -0.93 -0.99 2.18 2.20 0.91 0.92 72 -1.00 -1.05 2.39 2.42 0.90 0.90 96 -1.06 2.63 0.88 120 -1.09 2.90 0.85 144 -1.07 3.37 0.78 168 -1.10 3.90 0.70 192 -1.18 4.41 0.63 216 -1.18 4.85 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 122 12 UTC = 122 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.15 0.99 1.02 0.91 0.92 48 -0.26 -0.17 1.18 1.20 0.93 0.93 72 -0.36 -0.22 1.47 1.44 0.91 0.92 96 -0.34 1.74 0.89 120 -0.43 2.04 0.86 144 -0.51 2.43 0.79 168 -0.58 2.92 0.72 192 -0.61 3.27 0.68 216 -0.75 3.72 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.38 1.25 1.29 0.89 0.89 48 0.27 0.42 1.50 1.54 0.89 0.89 72 0.24 0.39 1.86 1.84 0.86 0.85 96 0.40 2.22 0.80 120 0.34 2.41 0.80 144 0.37 2.64 0.77 168 0.45 2.89 0.74 192 0.43 3.15 0.69 216 0.35 3.48 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.75 3.78 3.67 48 -0.95 -0.85 4.31 4.16 72 -1.04 -0.92 4.91 4.76 96 -1.01 5.37 120 -0.98 5.98 144 -0.93 6.68 168 -0.93 7.52 192 -0.99 7.96 216 -1.03 8.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 118 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.59 4.00 4.08 48 -0.77 -0.61 4.96 5.03 72 -0.84 -0.61 6.09 6.08 96 -0.70 7.18 120 -0.72 8.12 144 -0.81 9.35 168 -0.69 10.62 192 -0.62 11.67 216 -0.47 12.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.72 4.85 4.78 48 -1.06 -0.91 6.10 6.24 72 -1.31 -1.08 7.82 7.89 96 -1.26 9.50 120 -1.35 11.01 144 -1.56 12.80 168 -1.53 14.85 192 -1.67 16.62 216 -1.57 18.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 134 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.89 -2.31 7.72 8.05 0.97 0.98 48 -2.94 -0.68 10.58 10.48 0.97 0.98 72 -3.79 -0.99 13.36 16.21 0.95 0.95 96 -1.33 22.97 0.88 120 -1.20 33.45 0.84 144 0.12 40.83 0.73 168 -0.05 44.43 0.72 192 0.81 45.50 0.72 216 0.48 50.19 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.47 -7.14 12.15 12.83 0.98 0.98 48 -8.08 -6.02 16.14 17.52 0.97 0.98 72 -10.17 -6.66 21.02 24.56 0.97 0.97 96 -4.70 36.62 0.91 120 -4.76 47.45 0.83 144 -6.84 66.40 0.79 168 -5.51 77.65 0.73 192 -4.12 76.57 0.73 216 -7.70 82.84 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.21 -6.42 14.67 16.60 0.98 0.97 48 -7.92 -4.94 19.62 21.70 0.98 0.98 72 -9.73 -7.41 25.21 29.43 0.98 0.98 96 -7.36 42.55 0.94 120 -6.64 60.99 0.88 144 -11.98 83.24 0.82 168 -10.88 100.59 0.77 192 -10.14 104.69 0.77 216 -14.58 110.16 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.66 1.49 1.44 0.89 0.89 48 -0.66 -0.65 1.67 1.64 0.94 0.91 72 -0.71 -0.61 1.87 1.85 0.94 0.91 96 -0.52 2.23 0.82 120 -0.44 2.72 0.78 144 -0.48 3.14 0.75 168 -0.48 3.55 0.68 192 -0.42 3.53 0.70 216 -0.43 3.64 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.11 1.00 1.02 0.92 0.94 48 0.06 0.10 1.18 1.24 0.93 0.94 72 -0.01 0.02 1.40 1.41 0.92 0.93 96 0.16 1.99 0.87 120 0.16 2.30 0.84 144 -0.14 2.83 0.78 168 -0.04 3.28 0.71 192 -0.06 3.46 0.70 216 -0.27 3.44 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.23 1.22 1.34 0.91 0.92 48 0.52 0.20 1.46 1.58 0.91 0.90 72 0.61 0.14 1.68 1.77 0.90 0.89 96 -0.05 2.32 0.89 120 -0.06 2.68 0.82 144 0.04 3.15 0.77 168 0.02 3.47 0.74 192 -0.13 3.46 0.73 216 0.18 3.86 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.23 3.99 3.82 48 -0.09 -0.21 4.40 4.30 72 -0.13 -0.31 4.87 4.70 96 -0.28 5.48 120 -0.23 6.61 144 -0.27 7.48 168 -0.32 8.36 192 -0.59 8.12 216 -0.48 9.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 22 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.62 4.39 4.55 48 -0.45 -0.66 5.24 5.19 72 -0.60 -0.80 6.32 6.48 96 -0.71 7.86 120 -0.79 9.70 144 -0.86 11.66 168 -1.35 12.81 192 -1.22 13.05 216 -1.01 13.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 22 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.47 5.54 5.72 48 -0.61 -0.65 6.63 6.95 72 -0.67 -0.57 8.11 8.34 96 -0.38 10.27 120 -0.91 12.81 144 -1.22 16.21 168 -1.65 18.17 192 -1.88 18.38 216 -1.12 19.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 22 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.27 -1.95 9.50 10.01 0.76 0.71 48 -2.57 -2.27 9.85 10.58 0.86 0.82 72 -2.71 -2.66 10.12 11.13 0.87 0.83 96 -2.87 11.68 0.82 120 -2.76 12.12 0.78 144 -2.60 13.02 0.74 168 -3.00 13.80 0.71 192 -4.07 14.81 0.68 216 -4.68 15.54 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.88 -3.70 11.70 12.44 0.68 0.61 48 -3.84 -3.68 12.03 12.85 0.80 0.75 72 -4.47 -4.24 12.47 13.32 0.81 0.77 96 -4.86 13.83 0.76 120 -5.52 14.45 0.72 144 -6.22 15.34 0.70 168 -7.23 16.57 0.67 192 -8.66 17.65 0.65 216 -9.68 18.67 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.25 -10.18 14.93 17.03 0.68 0.66 48 -8.90 -11.05 15.74 18.19 0.81 0.78 72 -9.66 -11.96 16.84 19.25 0.81 0.80 96 -12.86 20.52 0.79 120 -14.05 22.10 0.77 144 -15.43 23.88 0.74 168 -17.21 26.38 0.69 192 -18.96 28.42 0.67 216 -20.49 30.26 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.23 1.08 1.19 0.52 0.47 48 0.01 -0.14 1.08 1.20 0.66 0.60 72 0.04 -0.09 1.14 1.25 0.68 0.61 96 -0.07 1.27 0.62 120 -0.08 1.28 0.62 144 -0.09 1.34 0.59 168 -0.11 1.38 0.57 192 -0.11 1.39 0.55 216 -0.09 1.41 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.24 0.87 0.87 0.55 0.52 48 -0.20 -0.29 0.93 0.93 0.61 0.64 72 -0.24 -0.31 0.98 0.98 0.63 0.66 96 -0.34 1.04 0.66 120 -0.40 1.11 0.63 144 -0.45 1.19 0.58 168 -0.48 1.27 0.52 192 -0.50 1.32 0.52 216 -0.53 1.36 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 -0.02 0.66 0.61 0.57 0.60 48 0.03 -0.04 0.74 0.69 0.65 0.65 72 0.04 -0.05 0.80 0.75 0.64 0.66 96 -0.07 0.79 0.65 120 -0.10 0.83 0.63 144 -0.15 0.87 0.59 168 -0.20 0.92 0.57 192 -0.24 0.97 0.54 216 -0.26 1.00 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.34 3.50 3.62 48 -0.49 -0.39 3.77 3.85 72 -0.55 -0.47 4.04 4.10 96 -0.54 4.36 120 -0.64 4.51 144 -0.76 4.72 168 -0.80 4.88 192 -0.80 5.06 216 -0.76 5.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.14 -1.04 3.84 3.86 48 -1.27 -1.15 4.13 4.17 72 -1.35 -1.20 4.55 4.52 96 -1.22 4.81 120 -1.24 5.32 144 -1.20 5.85 168 -1.28 6.18 192 -1.38 6.41 216 -1.43 6.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.94 4.81 4.93 48 -1.08 -1.12 5.69 5.85 72 -1.32 -1.42 6.47 6.58 96 -1.58 7.33 120 -1.68 8.10 144 -1.79 8.88 168 -1.79 9.55 192 -1.87 10.41 216 -1.79 10.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.39 -1.30 9.20 8.88 0.98 0.98 48 -0.32 -0.59 12.94 12.73 0.98 0.98 72 0.88 0.48 18.30 18.02 0.97 0.97 96 1.08 24.59 0.95 120 1.36 32.11 0.91 144 1.64 41.09 0.87 168 3.17 49.54 0.82 192 3.90 58.75 0.75 216 6.71 65.62 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 316 12 UTC = 314 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.47 -3.90 11.80 11.48 0.98 0.98 48 -4.03 -3.87 16.56 16.49 0.98 0.98 72 -3.96 -3.82 24.10 23.31 0.97 0.98 96 -4.22 33.31 0.96 120 -4.09 44.46 0.94 144 -4.43 57.34 0.90 168 -3.90 71.65 0.85 192 -4.21 87.48 0.78 216 -2.19 97.90 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 332 12 UTC = 328 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.21 -5.16 16.17 15.80 0.98 0.99 48 -6.10 -5.65 23.07 23.12 0.99 0.99 72 -7.73 -6.75 34.40 33.50 0.98 0.98 96 -8.90 47.70 0.96 120 -9.59 64.64 0.94 144 -10.16 83.50 0.91 168 -9.64 104.46 0.86 192 -10.72 128.21 0.80 216 -9.69 142.48 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 333 12 UTC = 329 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.61 1.64 1.69 0.91 0.91 48 -0.63 -0.69 1.85 1.89 0.93 0.93 72 -0.70 -0.73 2.11 2.15 0.93 0.93 96 -0.77 2.48 0.91 120 -0.78 2.88 0.88 144 -0.82 3.39 0.84 168 -0.87 3.99 0.79 192 -0.96 4.67 0.72 216 -0.99 5.12 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 382 12 UTC = 378 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.10 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 48 -0.18 -0.15 1.19 1.19 0.95 0.95 72 -0.27 -0.23 1.57 1.56 0.94 0.94 96 -0.30 2.01 0.91 120 -0.34 2.45 0.88 144 -0.39 2.97 0.84 168 -0.44 3.56 0.78 192 -0.49 4.10 0.72 216 -0.54 4.49 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 408 12 UTC = 403 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.32 0.40 1.24 1.26 0.91 0.91 48 0.37 0.43 1.53 1.53 0.91 0.91 72 0.35 0.43 1.88 1.87 0.88 0.88 96 0.41 2.29 0.83 120 0.34 2.63 0.79 144 0.37 2.97 0.76 168 0.38 3.24 0.71 192 0.37 3.52 0.66 216 0.34 3.77 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 404 12 UTC = 399 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.71 3.79 3.78 48 -0.85 -0.81 4.38 4.31 72 -0.92 -0.89 5.14 5.06 96 -0.95 6.04 120 -0.87 7.02 144 -0.91 7.94 168 -0.99 8.91 192 -1.05 9.68 216 -1.13 10.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 365 12 UTC = 363 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.52 4.03 4.03 48 -0.67 -0.59 5.13 5.06 72 -0.75 -0.68 6.53 6.39 96 -0.79 7.98 120 -0.83 9.64 144 -0.90 11.23 168 -0.93 12.79 192 -1.04 14.16 216 -1.07 15.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 396 12 UTC = 393 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.66 5.06 5.03 48 -0.82 -0.80 6.74 6.70 72 -0.98 -0.87 9.01 9.00 96 -1.08 11.38 120 -1.25 13.99 144 -1.35 16.75 168 -1.46 19.18 192 -1.61 21.48 216 -1.59 23.20 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 394 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.88 -1.69 9.08 10.42 0.97 0.97 48 -2.04 -1.65 12.43 13.92 0.97 0.97 72 -3.09 -2.16 16.98 20.10 0.95 0.95 96 -2.66 27.08 0.92 120 -3.41 37.28 0.87 144 -3.39 44.00 0.80 168 -3.68 49.00 0.74 192 -4.58 53.48 0.75 216 -5.46 57.90 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.14 -6.79 13.49 14.18 0.98 0.98 48 -7.47 -6.72 18.31 19.80 0.98 0.97 72 -9.17 -6.98 25.26 27.93 0.96 0.96 96 -6.74 41.27 0.92 120 -8.05 53.13 0.87 144 -8.64 65.00 0.82 168 -10.08 74.16 0.79 192 -10.78 80.98 0.76 216 -12.67 83.66 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.91 -8.80 18.09 19.73 0.98 0.98 48 -8.87 -9.72 25.19 27.56 0.98 0.98 72 -11.09 -11.17 33.93 37.94 0.97 0.97 96 -11.46 55.37 0.93 120 -13.77 72.95 0.88 144 -15.86 89.56 0.85 168 -17.73 101.25 0.81 192 -18.75 114.84 0.75 216 -23.04 118.45 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.81 1.76 1.78 0.88 0.87 48 -0.86 -0.78 1.93 1.95 0.92 0.89 72 -0.88 -0.76 2.16 2.11 0.92 0.90 96 -0.76 2.52 0.86 120 -0.81 2.92 0.83 144 -0.85 3.42 0.78 168 -0.95 3.93 0.74 192 -1.00 4.05 0.71 216 -0.99 4.13 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 1.05 1.13 0.93 0.92 48 -0.02 -0.03 1.31 1.37 0.94 0.92 72 -0.07 -0.02 1.61 1.63 0.92 0.91 96 0.04 2.23 0.86 120 -0.01 2.61 0.81 144 -0.10 3.08 0.77 168 -0.17 3.32 0.73 192 -0.12 3.57 0.69 216 -0.30 3.73 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.23 1.27 1.35 0.91 0.91 48 0.34 0.13 1.52 1.60 0.91 0.91 72 0.36 0.05 1.81 1.83 0.89 0.90 96 -0.04 2.25 0.87 120 -0.04 2.54 0.83 144 -0.14 2.84 0.80 168 -0.16 3.27 0.71 192 -0.32 3.41 0.68 216 -0.27 3.55 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.68 4.79 4.54 48 -0.60 -0.69 5.20 5.05 72 -0.64 -0.74 5.69 5.64 96 -0.75 6.56 120 -0.65 7.49 144 -0.75 8.34 168 -0.69 9.24 192 -0.75 9.40 216 -0.84 9.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.36 4.79 4.90 48 -0.36 -0.38 5.86 5.78 72 -0.49 -0.36 6.97 7.21 96 -0.20 8.89 120 -0.12 10.68 144 -0.03 12.31 168 -0.20 13.51 192 -0.43 14.14 216 -0.31 14.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2012 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.58 6.04 6.13 48 -0.30 -0.48 7.46 7.76 72 -0.31 -0.49 9.10 9.51 96 -0.37 12.05 120 -0.26 14.60 144 -0.33 17.22 168 -0.20 19.51 192 -0.69 20.87 216 -0.13 22.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------