VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY FEBRUARY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.09 0.98 1.00 0.99 0.99 17.1 17.4 48 0.08 0.09 1.69 1.71 0.98 0.98 25.8 26.1 72 0.01 0.01 2.50 2.46 0.96 0.96 34.0 34.1 96 -0.09 3.35 0.92 41.8 120 -0.19 4.36 0.87 49.6 144 -0.27 5.58 0.79 57.4 168 -0.32 6.91 0.68 64.4 192 -0.33 7.91 0.58 69.5 216 -0.42 8.82 0.49 73.6 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -1.07 7.43 7.39 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.4 48 -1.85 -2.00 14.88 14.63 0.99 0.99 17.1 16.8 72 -2.88 -3.08 23.53 23.01 0.97 0.98 24.3 23.9 96 -4.22 32.67 0.95 30.7 120 -5.45 43.92 0.91 37.3 144 -6.72 56.19 0.85 43.4 168 -7.78 70.19 0.76 49.5 192 -8.45 81.15 0.67 53.9 216 -9.45 92.83 0.57 58.3 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.79 9.36 9.59 1.00 1.00 7.6 7.6 48 -1.52 -1.71 18.41 18.24 0.99 0.99 12.8 12.6 72 -2.24 -2.67 28.69 28.27 0.98 0.98 18.0 17.7 96 -3.57 40.17 0.96 23.2 120 -4.78 54.49 0.92 28.9 144 -6.47 70.08 0.86 34.5 168 -8.41 87.68 0.78 40.1 192 -9.63 102.47 0.70 44.5 216 -10.23 118.01 0.60 49.0 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 0.54 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.05 0.96 0.95 0.97 0.97 72 -0.06 -0.07 1.37 1.35 0.94 0.94 96 -0.08 1.81 0.90 120 -0.11 2.25 0.84 144 -0.15 2.71 0.77 168 -0.20 3.25 0.66 192 -0.25 3.64 0.57 216 -0.25 4.02 0.47 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.04 0.71 0.70 0.99 0.99 48 0.06 0.05 1.16 1.14 0.96 0.96 72 0.08 0.07 1.57 1.56 0.93 0.93 96 0.09 1.98 0.89 120 0.09 2.40 0.83 144 0.07 2.82 0.76 168 0.01 3.27 0.68 192 -0.03 3.58 0.62 216 -0.06 3.86 0.56 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 2.39 2.39 48 0.02 0.04 4.26 4.23 72 0.04 0.06 6.00 5.91 96 0.08 7.53 120 0.10 9.20 144 0.06 10.74 168 0.04 12.54 192 -0.01 13.75 216 -0.03 15.01 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.10 3.42 3.45 48 -0.16 -0.11 5.46 5.46 72 -0.13 -0.09 7.49 7.43 96 -0.09 9.59 120 -0.12 11.83 144 -0.23 14.09 168 -0.36 16.64 192 -0.43 18.66 216 -0.55 20.67 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.32 3.13 3.18 0.98 0.97 25.8 25.9 48 -0.17 -0.03 4.51 4.53 0.95 0.95 34.7 34.7 72 0.18 0.30 5.57 5.54 0.92 0.92 40.0 39.8 96 0.62 6.64 0.88 43.4 120 0.74 7.62 0.84 46.7 144 0.60 8.38 0.81 49.6 168 0.32 9.27 0.78 52.0 192 -0.27 10.36 0.73 54.8 216 -0.67 11.50 0.67 56.9 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.51 0.62 4.69 4.78 0.98 0.98 20.7 20.9 48 0.33 0.49 7.17 7.34 0.96 0.96 29.1 29.1 72 -0.06 0.20 9.49 9.76 0.94 0.93 34.5 34.6 96 -0.75 11.69 0.90 38.6 120 -2.14 13.66 0.87 41.8 144 -4.00 15.88 0.83 44.7 168 -6.06 18.06 0.79 47.4 192 -8.39 20.80 0.73 50.4 216 -10.54 23.76 0.66 53.9 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.40 0.41 0.96 0.96 48 0.06 0.05 0.68 0.68 0.89 0.90 72 0.08 0.06 0.86 0.85 0.82 0.84 96 0.06 0.98 0.79 120 0.06 1.09 0.75 144 0.04 1.18 0.71 168 0.02 1.26 0.66 192 -0.01 1.35 0.62 216 -0.04 1.44 0.57 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.02 0.36 0.36 0.95 0.95 48 0.02 -0.01 0.55 0.55 0.89 0.89 72 0.02 -0.01 0.67 0.68 0.83 0.83 96 -0.03 0.77 0.78 120 -0.07 0.85 0.72 144 -0.14 0.93 0.67 168 -0.20 0.99 0.62 192 -0.25 1.06 0.56 216 -0.32 1.15 0.50 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 1.57 1.54 48 0.00 -0.01 2.37 2.31 72 -0.06 -0.06 2.89 2.84 96 -0.13 3.23 120 -0.18 3.56 144 -0.22 3.86 168 -0.26 4.11 192 -0.24 4.40 216 -0.25 4.65 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.41 3.38 3.42 48 -0.63 -0.65 5.00 5.01 72 -0.74 -0.77 6.09 6.11 96 -0.80 6.92 120 -0.79 7.63 144 -0.81 8.29 168 -0.80 9.02 192 -0.79 9.70 216 -0.77 10.44 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.91 0.89 0.99 0.99 14.3 14.1 48 -0.04 -0.04 1.71 1.67 0.97 0.98 24.2 23.8 72 -0.04 -0.02 2.61 2.56 0.94 0.94 32.7 32.4 96 0.02 3.58 0.89 40.4 120 0.08 4.56 0.81 47.2 144 0.14 5.50 0.73 53.5 168 0.18 6.18 0.65 57.6 192 0.22 6.94 0.57 61.3 216 0.32 7.75 0.46 65.2 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.26 1.24 8.31 8.24 1.00 1.00 10.7 10.7 48 2.06 2.07 16.16 16.11 0.99 0.99 19.0 18.9 72 2.77 2.86 25.54 25.39 0.96 0.96 26.6 26.5 96 3.54 36.68 0.92 33.9 120 4.05 48.27 0.86 40.8 144 4.47 59.98 0.79 47.2 168 4.64 69.81 0.71 52.0 192 4.61 79.02 0.63 56.2 216 4.90 88.58 0.53 60.3 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.74 0.78 10.78 10.55 1.00 1.00 9.5 9.4 48 1.07 1.07 21.29 20.90 0.99 0.99 16.5 16.2 72 1.10 1.15 33.45 32.99 0.96 0.97 23.3 23.0 96 0.93 47.90 0.93 30.2 120 0.51 64.06 0.87 37.0 144 -0.05 81.16 0.79 43.5 168 -0.70 97.07 0.69 48.8 192 -1.40 110.77 0.60 53.1 216 -2.80 122.56 0.51 56.8 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 0.52 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 0.02 0.03 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 72 0.02 0.03 1.39 1.39 0.92 0.92 96 0.02 1.82 0.86 120 0.01 2.28 0.78 144 -0.02 2.75 0.67 168 -0.03 3.12 0.58 192 -0.04 3.45 0.48 216 -0.09 3.67 0.40 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.04 0.64 0.64 0.99 0.99 48 -0.09 -0.10 1.17 1.16 0.95 0.95 72 -0.15 -0.16 1.65 1.65 0.89 0.90 96 -0.25 2.15 0.82 120 -0.35 2.64 0.72 144 -0.42 3.04 0.63 168 -0.50 3.33 0.55 192 -0.57 3.56 0.48 216 -0.67 3.81 0.41 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.13 2.32 2.31 48 -0.23 -0.25 4.17 4.17 72 -0.33 -0.33 5.89 5.87 96 -0.42 7.56 120 -0.50 9.12 144 -0.60 10.66 168 -0.67 11.88 192 -0.72 12.99 216 -0.91 13.92 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.21 3.40 3.42 48 -0.40 -0.36 6.06 5.91 72 -0.49 -0.49 8.54 8.33 96 -0.58 10.89 120 -0.66 13.31 144 -0.77 15.75 168 -0.82 17.95 192 -0.92 19.71 216 -1.07 21.15 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.13 -2.69 8.49 8.42 0.99 0.99 48 -3.24 -3.26 12.57 13.03 0.99 0.98 72 -3.98 -4.58 17.54 17.91 0.97 0.97 96 -5.13 24.09 0.95 120 -3.56 32.26 0.92 144 -3.06 40.74 0.88 168 -3.79 45.88 0.85 192 -2.51 49.78 0.79 216 -3.82 54.87 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.19 -7.16 12.11 12.76 0.99 0.99 48 -8.38 -9.05 19.14 19.63 0.99 0.99 72 -9.69 -10.97 27.10 27.72 0.97 0.97 96 -11.63 37.60 0.95 120 -8.59 49.36 0.94 144 -6.97 61.36 0.91 168 -5.58 71.78 0.88 192 -2.11 81.35 0.83 216 -3.82 93.46 0.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.06 -8.04 15.34 16.32 0.99 0.99 48 -9.29 -10.30 24.92 25.73 0.99 0.99 72 -9.98 -12.37 35.86 36.44 0.97 0.97 96 -12.68 48.22 0.96 120 -6.11 64.43 0.95 144 -3.03 81.91 0.92 168 1.39 98.04 0.88 192 6.08 107.77 0.85 216 7.26 123.73 0.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.62 1.66 1.72 0.93 0.93 48 -0.58 -0.69 1.87 1.92 0.94 0.94 72 -0.56 -0.69 2.15 2.20 0.92 0.93 96 -0.63 2.64 0.90 120 -0.49 3.24 0.89 144 -0.41 3.79 0.87 168 -0.41 4.28 0.83 192 -0.07 4.72 0.75 216 -0.13 5.30 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.10 0.96 0.98 0.96 0.96 48 -0.14 -0.17 1.28 1.32 0.96 0.95 72 -0.17 -0.23 1.72 1.71 0.94 0.94 96 -0.28 2.17 0.91 120 -0.18 2.69 0.90 144 -0.15 3.23 0.85 168 0.09 3.77 0.81 192 0.18 4.01 0.78 216 0.19 4.44 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.45 0.43 1.40 1.37 0.94 0.95 48 0.54 0.51 1.77 1.76 0.94 0.94 72 0.64 0.59 2.12 2.13 0.90 0.90 96 0.69 2.55 0.87 120 0.80 3.01 0.82 144 0.92 3.45 0.80 168 0.93 3.80 0.78 192 1.00 4.07 0.71 216 1.09 4.32 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.87 4.12 4.31 48 -0.71 -0.82 4.74 4.90 72 -0.64 -0.75 5.55 5.67 96 -0.86 6.65 120 -0.90 8.04 144 -0.85 9.09 168 -0.73 9.81 192 -0.95 10.38 216 -0.72 10.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.65 4.61 4.70 48 -0.75 -0.65 5.82 6.01 72 -0.64 -0.65 7.30 7.53 96 -0.58 9.01 120 -0.58 11.21 144 -0.65 12.51 168 -0.80 14.20 192 -0.78 15.32 216 -0.38 16.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.83 6.12 5.96 48 -0.86 -1.00 7.86 7.96 72 -0.80 -0.96 9.89 9.80 96 -0.82 12.05 120 -0.70 14.84 144 -0.86 17.37 168 -1.31 19.90 192 -1.08 21.34 216 -0.76 23.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.24 -3.48 9.48 8.92 0.98 0.98 48 -4.38 -5.69 13.10 13.02 0.98 0.98 72 -3.83 -5.07 18.77 16.83 0.97 0.97 96 -5.36 24.96 0.93 120 -6.36 31.99 0.91 144 -5.58 40.30 0.88 168 -0.15 56.28 0.79 192 2.56 74.21 0.70 216 -1.77 84.06 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.70 -7.99 14.20 12.77 0.98 0.98 48 -9.81 -10.99 20.26 19.71 0.98 0.98 72 -9.32 -10.73 27.45 25.20 0.97 0.98 96 -10.85 38.16 0.93 120 -10.93 49.50 0.91 144 -9.41 60.76 0.89 168 -1.52 83.66 0.79 192 9.41 104.73 0.69 216 10.28 123.01 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.57 -10.86 16.68 16.37 0.99 0.98 48 -11.89 -14.59 25.07 24.82 0.98 0.98 72 -11.28 -14.12 35.15 32.73 0.97 0.98 96 -14.76 48.97 0.94 120 -13.00 64.73 0.91 144 -10.62 81.09 0.88 168 3.33 111.25 0.81 192 23.42 146.70 0.69 216 31.61 171.10 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.28 1.41 1.32 0.87 0.85 48 -0.44 -0.35 1.61 1.53 0.90 0.90 72 -0.44 -0.37 1.86 1.76 0.89 0.89 96 -0.33 2.04 0.85 120 -0.23 2.36 0.81 144 -0.17 2.75 0.75 168 -0.08 3.39 0.71 192 0.12 3.90 0.64 216 0.45 4.44 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.14 0.85 0.86 0.95 0.95 48 -0.22 -0.18 1.24 1.15 0.95 0.96 72 -0.22 -0.19 1.54 1.54 0.93 0.94 96 -0.20 2.06 0.89 120 -0.13 2.58 0.85 144 -0.06 3.06 0.80 168 0.16 3.81 0.77 192 0.86 4.67 0.63 216 1.27 5.15 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.44 0.36 1.28 1.21 0.91 0.92 48 0.45 0.34 1.69 1.54 0.92 0.93 72 0.42 0.34 2.00 1.93 0.90 0.91 96 0.31 2.47 0.86 120 0.26 2.86 0.82 144 0.28 3.26 0.75 168 0.48 3.56 0.68 192 0.28 3.95 0.63 216 0.24 4.30 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.66 3.99 3.99 48 -0.81 -0.58 4.52 4.48 72 -0.76 -0.63 5.33 5.10 96 -0.65 6.03 120 -0.63 6.84 144 -0.68 7.65 168 -0.95 9.04 192 -0.36 10.64 216 -0.10 11.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.47 4.54 4.42 48 -0.66 -0.45 5.80 5.70 72 -0.74 -0.57 7.46 6.92 96 -0.66 8.92 120 -0.47 10.43 144 -0.41 12.41 168 -0.48 14.96 192 0.17 17.14 216 0.13 18.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.27 4.80 4.57 48 -0.47 -0.38 6.53 6.22 72 -0.60 -0.38 8.64 8.17 96 -0.79 11.00 120 -0.35 13.45 144 -0.19 16.54 168 0.58 21.57 192 0.80 26.12 216 0.41 27.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 6.62 5.69 12.87 12.03 0.95 0.95 48 7.12 7.03 15.16 14.25 0.96 0.96 72 6.55 6.57 16.71 16.36 0.95 0.94 96 5.17 18.39 0.92 120 5.38 21.61 0.92 144 4.65 26.87 0.87 168 5.14 30.36 0.85 192 4.30 33.91 0.78 216 6.15 37.81 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.27 1.62 13.61 13.72 0.96 0.96 48 2.47 2.24 15.81 16.09 0.97 0.97 72 0.50 0.53 19.76 20.19 0.96 0.96 96 -0.51 24.88 0.94 120 -1.07 31.62 0.91 144 -1.92 38.85 0.90 168 -2.73 45.20 0.87 192 -2.87 53.46 0.80 216 -0.49 59.96 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.74 -3.29 18.08 18.87 0.96 0.96 48 -4.62 -5.83 21.39 22.46 0.97 0.97 72 -10.32 -10.83 29.27 29.29 0.96 0.96 96 -13.86 37.21 0.94 120 -14.89 45.93 0.91 144 -17.08 56.37 0.89 168 -19.14 65.56 0.86 192 -21.11 78.25 0.80 216 -22.47 89.21 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.43 1.84 1.94 0.89 0.90 48 -0.22 -0.35 2.11 2.19 0.91 0.92 72 -0.18 -0.30 2.32 2.40 0.91 0.91 96 -0.20 2.65 0.90 120 -0.13 2.97 0.88 144 -0.02 3.41 0.86 168 0.05 3.83 0.82 192 0.28 4.17 0.78 216 0.52 4.48 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.32 1.17 1.19 0.93 0.93 48 -0.35 -0.41 1.35 1.39 0.95 0.94 72 -0.45 -0.50 1.58 1.61 0.94 0.93 96 -0.53 1.88 0.91 120 -0.53 2.28 0.88 144 -0.57 2.73 0.86 168 -0.50 3.05 0.82 192 -0.50 3.45 0.78 216 -0.51 3.77 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 137 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.32 1.54 1.51 0.90 0.90 48 0.20 0.24 1.76 1.75 0.91 0.91 72 0.13 0.20 2.04 2.01 0.90 0.91 96 0.21 2.33 0.89 120 0.24 2.67 0.87 144 0.19 2.95 0.85 168 0.04 3.28 0.81 192 -0.07 3.63 0.75 216 -0.30 3.80 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -1.01 3.93 3.82 48 -1.07 -1.11 4.41 4.29 72 -1.13 -1.10 4.87 4.77 96 -1.16 5.20 120 -1.24 5.86 144 -1.21 6.70 168 -1.13 7.32 192 -1.08 8.01 216 -1.39 8.17 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 118 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.30 4.51 4.51 48 -0.60 -0.36 5.20 5.21 72 -0.61 -0.39 6.08 6.05 96 -0.44 7.00 120 -0.61 8.32 144 -0.75 9.59 168 -0.93 10.90 192 -1.14 11.95 216 -1.63 12.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.69 5.35 5.34 48 -1.06 -0.91 6.21 6.17 72 -1.18 -1.13 7.49 7.32 96 -1.33 8.62 120 -1.61 10.11 144 -1.86 11.66 168 -2.28 13.15 192 -2.60 15.10 216 -2.91 16.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 134 12 UTC = 133 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.15 -3.33 6.92 8.87 0.93 0.95 48 -2.24 -2.69 8.83 10.26 0.96 0.97 72 -2.06 -1.94 11.65 14.45 0.94 0.96 96 -1.77 19.85 0.93 120 -1.95 22.03 0.92 144 -1.15 29.61 0.83 168 1.05 35.00 0.76 192 2.24 33.04 0.72 216 1.09 40.77 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.33 -8.92 9.87 13.69 0.95 0.97 48 -6.27 -8.67 12.42 15.04 0.97 0.98 72 -6.84 -7.92 17.16 20.81 0.95 0.97 96 -8.04 26.66 0.95 120 -8.84 31.37 0.92 144 -9.14 38.63 0.83 168 -6.97 52.43 0.70 192 -6.35 49.21 0.73 216 -5.82 58.78 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.81 -13.04 14.35 18.49 0.97 0.97 48 -10.31 -13.17 19.91 21.35 0.97 0.98 72 -12.74 -12.99 29.00 30.18 0.95 0.96 96 -15.04 39.72 0.94 120 -16.83 46.01 0.94 144 -19.22 54.72 0.86 168 -19.02 71.35 0.78 192 -19.67 74.33 0.79 216 -18.81 84.69 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.48 1.28 1.29 0.81 0.80 48 -0.19 -0.48 1.45 1.39 0.88 0.91 72 -0.16 -0.43 1.64 1.50 0.88 0.92 96 -0.30 1.81 0.92 120 -0.27 2.23 0.86 144 -0.30 2.33 0.81 168 -0.23 2.84 0.75 192 -0.20 3.15 0.69 216 -0.20 3.40 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.13 0.86 0.84 0.82 0.87 48 -0.12 -0.13 0.98 0.94 0.87 0.90 72 -0.17 -0.12 1.20 1.12 0.86 0.88 96 -0.26 1.42 0.85 120 -0.29 1.53 0.87 144 -0.38 1.73 0.80 168 -0.41 2.01 0.75 192 -0.46 2.28 0.70 216 -0.31 2.37 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.15 0.87 0.99 0.88 0.84 48 0.13 0.11 1.06 1.14 0.89 0.86 72 0.06 0.07 1.31 1.45 0.89 0.84 96 0.03 1.78 0.79 120 0.02 1.87 0.84 144 -0.14 1.95 0.82 168 -0.17 2.30 0.74 192 -0.24 2.25 0.78 216 -0.41 2.60 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.61 3.93 3.78 48 -0.59 -0.64 4.46 4.34 72 -0.66 -0.66 4.99 4.84 96 -0.65 5.50 120 -0.70 5.98 144 -0.72 6.57 168 -0.78 7.11 192 -0.95 7.44 216 -1.27 7.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 24 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.56 3.97 4.14 48 -0.87 -0.78 4.57 4.78 72 -0.91 -0.87 5.59 5.51 96 -0.91 6.61 120 -0.95 7.46 144 -1.02 8.05 168 -0.81 8.94 192 -0.78 10.08 216 -1.03 10.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 24 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.81 5.45 5.48 48 -0.84 -1.10 6.93 6.67 72 -1.00 -1.08 8.61 8.37 96 -1.31 10.36 120 -1.48 12.09 144 -1.44 13.39 168 -1.25 15.18 192 -0.64 17.51 216 -0.91 17.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 35 12 UTC = 24 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.41 -1.68 9.55 10.03 0.66 0.64 48 -1.60 -1.66 9.79 10.22 0.78 0.76 72 -1.33 -1.52 10.15 10.55 0.80 0.79 96 -1.48 11.05 0.80 120 -1.47 11.71 0.79 144 -1.72 12.16 0.77 168 -2.02 12.70 0.77 192 -2.51 13.70 0.72 216 -3.24 14.69 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.35 -4.47 12.31 13.09 0.56 0.53 48 -4.37 -4.49 12.69 13.56 0.70 0.68 72 -4.67 -4.79 12.89 13.82 0.73 0.73 96 -5.27 14.36 0.75 120 -5.82 15.06 0.75 144 -6.73 15.76 0.74 168 -7.93 16.63 0.74 192 -9.24 18.06 0.69 216 -10.40 19.30 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.98 -10.96 16.31 16.86 0.64 0.59 48 -9.81 -10.90 16.80 17.50 0.76 0.73 72 -9.64 -10.80 17.30 18.33 0.80 0.77 96 -11.31 19.26 0.78 120 -12.24 20.39 0.79 144 -14.03 22.29 0.79 168 -16.39 24.58 0.77 192 -19.16 27.57 0.75 216 -21.43 30.59 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.17 0.97 1.10 0.52 0.51 48 -0.04 -0.15 1.00 1.12 0.65 0.64 72 -0.02 -0.13 1.04 1.16 0.66 0.65 96 -0.12 1.20 0.67 120 -0.13 1.23 0.70 144 -0.13 1.30 0.69 168 -0.16 1.36 0.67 192 -0.21 1.47 0.63 216 -0.23 1.52 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.28 0.87 0.90 0.51 0.52 48 -0.35 -0.34 0.95 0.98 0.63 0.64 72 -0.40 -0.38 1.01 1.03 0.68 0.67 96 -0.38 1.08 0.66 120 -0.39 1.12 0.66 144 -0.42 1.16 0.64 168 -0.48 1.22 0.62 192 -0.55 1.28 0.60 216 -0.59 1.33 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 -0.03 0.70 0.69 0.57 0.59 48 0.12 0.02 0.79 0.77 0.65 0.67 72 0.15 0.05 0.83 0.83 0.70 0.70 96 0.01 0.87 0.70 120 -0.02 0.92 0.69 144 -0.09 0.97 0.71 168 -0.16 1.04 0.70 192 -0.22 1.07 0.73 216 -0.29 1.14 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.64 3.67 3.73 48 -0.81 -0.72 3.97 4.00 72 -0.89 -0.82 4.16 4.21 96 -0.84 4.36 120 -0.90 4.53 144 -0.93 4.77 168 -1.02 4.95 192 -1.06 5.27 216 -1.03 5.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 56 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.02 -0.91 4.10 4.05 48 -1.11 -0.93 4.49 4.43 72 -1.16 -1.02 4.74 4.75 96 -1.08 5.08 120 -1.20 5.36 144 -1.34 5.74 168 -1.36 6.10 192 -1.34 6.40 216 -1.37 6.89 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.98 -0.99 5.05 5.17 48 -1.30 -1.25 5.84 6.07 72 -1.56 -1.54 6.42 6.88 96 -1.59 7.43 120 -1.63 7.79 144 -1.62 8.26 168 -1.66 8.69 192 -1.54 9.45 216 -1.40 10.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.66 10.63 10.37 0.98 0.98 48 -0.82 -1.12 14.07 14.01 0.98 0.98 72 -1.40 -1.88 18.62 18.08 0.97 0.97 96 -2.96 24.21 0.94 120 -3.43 31.23 0.92 144 -4.33 39.50 0.88 168 -3.98 48.67 0.82 192 -3.53 56.51 0.76 216 -4.45 63.77 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 311 12 UTC = 307 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.10 -4.59 13.66 13.56 0.98 0.98 48 -5.27 -6.07 18.69 18.78 0.98 0.98 72 -6.66 -7.53 25.50 25.13 0.97 0.97 96 -8.76 34.63 0.96 120 -9.27 45.44 0.93 144 -10.21 56.36 0.91 168 -10.46 70.43 0.87 192 -8.87 82.36 0.82 216 -9.30 94.99 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 326 12 UTC = 324 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.93 -7.33 17.52 18.07 0.98 0.98 48 -8.10 -9.79 23.95 24.55 0.98 0.98 72 -10.16 -12.07 33.24 33.07 0.97 0.98 96 -13.85 44.62 0.96 120 -13.29 58.92 0.94 144 -14.11 73.75 0.92 168 -13.34 92.24 0.88 192 -10.75 109.50 0.83 216 -10.08 126.53 0.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 328 12 UTC = 325 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.45 1.66 1.71 0.91 0.91 48 -0.44 -0.49 1.91 1.94 0.93 0.93 72 -0.45 -0.50 2.20 2.21 0.92 0.92 96 -0.48 2.54 0.90 120 -0.44 2.97 0.89 144 -0.41 3.43 0.86 168 -0.43 3.93 0.83 192 -0.30 4.38 0.77 216 -0.21 4.83 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 374 12 UTC = 369 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.20 1.03 1.04 0.95 0.95 48 -0.23 -0.26 1.30 1.29 0.96 0.96 72 -0.28 -0.32 1.62 1.62 0.94 0.94 96 -0.35 2.02 0.92 120 -0.35 2.50 0.89 144 -0.36 2.94 0.87 168 -0.33 3.46 0.82 192 -0.29 3.92 0.77 216 -0.24 4.30 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 399 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.33 0.33 1.42 1.38 0.93 0.93 48 0.35 0.33 1.74 1.68 0.93 0.93 72 0.36 0.35 2.08 2.02 0.91 0.91 96 0.38 2.42 0.88 120 0.42 2.83 0.85 144 0.43 3.19 0.82 168 0.44 3.56 0.78 192 0.40 3.86 0.73 216 0.35 4.11 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 394 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.86 3.98 4.00 48 -0.88 -0.89 4.53 4.55 72 -0.90 -0.88 5.26 5.19 96 -0.94 5.99 120 -0.96 6.89 144 -0.94 7.78 168 -0.90 8.67 192 -0.85 9.43 216 -0.83 9.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 361 12 UTC = 359 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.51 4.45 4.46 48 -0.64 -0.51 5.51 5.50 72 -0.64 -0.55 6.83 6.72 96 -0.57 8.14 120 -0.61 9.77 144 -0.62 11.14 168 -0.69 12.92 192 -0.63 14.18 216 -0.71 15.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 390 12 UTC = 387 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.56 5.17 5.16 48 -0.71 -0.69 6.50 6.53 72 -0.74 -0.76 8.24 8.07 96 -0.84 9.97 120 -0.83 12.14 144 -0.92 14.26 168 -1.05 16.92 192 -1.01 19.20 216 -1.07 20.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 389 12 UTC = 385 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.60 -1.35 8.27 8.96 0.97 0.97 48 -1.60 -1.09 10.80 11.96 0.97 0.97 72 -0.86 -0.23 13.97 16.38 0.95 0.95 96 -0.09 22.84 0.88 120 -0.70 27.61 0.88 144 -0.55 31.86 0.86 168 -0.42 37.93 0.80 192 -1.20 41.06 0.75 216 -2.47 45.34 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.65 -5.94 10.88 12.08 0.96 0.97 48 -4.58 -4.70 14.60 15.53 0.97 0.97 72 -3.99 -2.67 19.92 21.77 0.95 0.96 96 -2.29 28.62 0.93 120 -2.34 37.37 0.90 144 -2.22 43.08 0.87 168 -3.49 51.84 0.82 192 -4.36 57.55 0.79 216 -7.82 64.72 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.97 -7.60 17.55 16.98 0.96 0.97 48 -6.30 -7.02 22.44 22.57 0.97 0.97 72 -6.84 -5.67 31.64 30.99 0.95 0.96 96 -5.79 39.92 0.94 120 -5.74 51.73 0.92 144 -6.30 61.51 0.89 168 -8.50 72.76 0.85 192 -7.62 82.68 0.82 216 -12.70 92.91 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.63 1.56 1.53 0.87 0.86 48 -0.47 -0.56 1.71 1.67 0.90 0.90 72 -0.44 -0.46 1.88 1.82 0.89 0.89 96 -0.37 2.06 0.87 120 -0.32 2.41 0.84 144 -0.32 2.65 0.80 168 -0.35 2.91 0.78 192 -0.33 3.34 0.71 216 -0.55 3.60 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.04 0.94 0.94 0.89 0.90 48 0.00 -0.02 1.09 1.11 0.91 0.91 72 0.01 0.00 1.32 1.35 0.89 0.92 96 -0.05 1.63 0.88 120 -0.05 2.00 0.83 144 -0.07 2.28 0.80 168 -0.14 2.46 0.79 192 -0.12 2.73 0.76 216 -0.25 2.94 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.02 1.03 1.27 0.91 0.89 48 0.09 -0.04 1.28 1.53 0.91 0.89 72 0.05 -0.14 1.59 1.80 0.89 0.87 96 -0.16 2.12 0.83 120 -0.18 2.44 0.79 144 -0.24 2.65 0.77 168 -0.23 2.91 0.72 192 -0.26 3.05 0.73 216 -0.26 3.32 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.97 4.45 4.33 48 -0.71 -1.04 4.85 4.78 72 -0.78 -1.11 5.31 5.23 96 -1.13 6.03 120 -1.09 6.71 144 -1.07 7.35 168 -1.22 7.93 192 -1.39 8.22 216 -1.52 8.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.54 4.14 4.26 48 -0.81 -0.74 4.89 5.13 72 -0.87 -0.79 5.97 6.00 96 -0.84 7.25 120 -1.00 8.52 144 -1.05 9.54 168 -0.93 10.30 192 -0.90 11.33 216 -1.28 11.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 46 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -0.66 5.68 5.65 48 -1.07 -0.96 7.37 7.03 72 -1.06 -0.89 9.07 8.85 96 -0.96 11.14 120 -1.13 12.88 144 -1.21 14.53 168 -1.03 16.24 192 -0.66 18.68 216 -1.19 19.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 46 ---------------------------------------------------------