VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MARCH 2013 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.11 1.01 1.03 1.00 1.00 17.2 17.8 48 0.13 0.12 1.69 1.70 0.99 0.99 25.8 26.6 72 0.07 0.04 2.58 2.61 0.97 0.97 34.3 35.3 96 -0.06 3.77 0.93 45.0 120 -0.15 5.05 0.88 54.1 144 -0.19 6.53 0.79 63.2 168 -0.28 7.69 0.72 70.5 192 -0.37 8.53 0.65 75.4 216 -0.44 9.06 0.60 78.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.82 7.43 7.56 1.00 1.00 9.8 10.0 48 -1.07 -1.35 15.09 15.33 0.99 0.99 17.9 18.0 72 -1.92 -2.39 25.15 25.30 0.98 0.98 26.1 26.1 96 -3.43 37.80 0.95 34.6 120 -4.32 51.08 0.91 42.3 144 -4.99 66.26 0.84 49.8 168 -5.93 80.74 0.76 56.4 192 -6.77 93.53 0.68 61.3 216 -7.51 103.13 0.61 64.9 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.19 -1.34 9.95 10.17 1.00 1.00 8.2 8.3 48 -2.49 -2.73 19.89 20.13 0.99 0.99 14.1 14.1 72 -4.07 -4.47 31.91 32.19 0.98 0.98 20.3 20.4 96 -6.18 47.43 0.95 27.3 120 -7.62 64.18 0.91 34.0 144 -8.71 83.23 0.85 40.9 168 -9.79 101.94 0.77 47.0 192 -10.48 119.23 0.69 51.8 216 -11.26 132.90 0.62 55.5 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.04 0.52 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 -0.10 -0.10 0.94 0.95 0.98 0.98 72 -0.15 -0.16 1.42 1.42 0.94 0.94 96 -0.21 1.96 0.89 120 -0.26 2.53 0.82 144 -0.31 3.13 0.73 168 -0.34 3.65 0.63 192 -0.34 4.06 0.55 216 -0.36 4.39 0.48 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.06 0.67 0.67 0.99 0.99 48 0.08 0.08 1.11 1.12 0.96 0.96 72 0.10 0.10 1.57 1.58 0.92 0.92 96 0.11 2.07 0.85 120 0.13 2.55 0.77 144 0.14 3.02 0.67 168 0.14 3.41 0.58 192 0.14 3.68 0.51 216 0.15 3.88 0.44 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.03 2.37 2.40 48 -0.02 0.02 4.24 4.29 72 -0.05 0.00 6.14 6.18 96 -0.04 8.18 120 -0.11 10.11 144 -0.17 12.01 168 -0.18 13.77 192 -0.17 15.08 216 -0.18 16.15 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.12 3.60 3.54 48 -0.19 -0.15 5.77 5.77 72 -0.21 -0.16 7.93 7.98 96 -0.17 10.46 120 -0.20 13.11 144 -0.24 15.85 168 -0.25 18.23 192 -0.23 20.24 216 -0.24 22.07 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.72 2.94 3.03 0.98 0.97 27.5 27.3 48 -0.94 -0.87 4.37 4.33 0.95 0.95 36.6 35.9 72 -0.73 -0.73 5.28 5.30 0.92 0.92 42.0 41.1 96 -0.37 6.09 0.89 45.1 120 -0.33 6.84 0.86 48.3 144 -0.49 7.89 0.81 51.5 168 -0.58 9.04 0.76 54.3 192 -0.95 10.05 0.71 56.8 216 -1.27 10.82 0.68 59.0 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.42 0.35 4.58 4.78 0.99 0.99 18.2 18.3 48 0.08 -0.05 7.17 7.41 0.98 0.97 25.6 26.0 72 -0.21 -0.44 9.39 9.62 0.96 0.96 31.0 31.4 96 -0.88 12.11 0.93 35.9 120 -1.68 14.48 0.90 40.1 144 -2.93 16.94 0.86 43.7 168 -3.76 19.37 0.82 47.1 192 -4.67 21.48 0.77 49.8 216 -5.47 23.67 0.72 52.5 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.01 0.40 0.41 0.97 0.96 48 0.11 0.09 0.66 0.66 0.91 0.91 72 0.14 0.12 0.82 0.81 0.86 0.86 96 0.13 0.93 0.82 120 0.12 1.02 0.77 144 0.11 1.10 0.74 168 0.10 1.20 0.69 192 0.08 1.31 0.63 216 0.07 1.41 0.57 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 0.37 0.36 0.95 0.95 48 -0.01 -0.03 0.54 0.53 0.89 0.89 72 0.01 -0.01 0.66 0.65 0.83 0.83 96 -0.02 0.75 0.77 120 -0.04 0.83 0.72 144 -0.07 0.88 0.68 168 -0.11 0.94 0.64 192 -0.13 1.00 0.59 216 -0.17 1.06 0.55 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.04 1.50 1.49 48 -0.05 -0.04 2.23 2.21 72 -0.10 -0.09 2.72 2.67 96 -0.14 3.04 120 -0.20 3.38 144 -0.22 3.69 168 -0.24 4.00 192 -0.27 4.25 216 -0.30 4.48 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.45 3.29 3.29 48 -0.75 -0.76 4.95 4.91 72 -0.95 -0.95 6.11 6.13 96 -1.08 7.11 120 -1.17 8.02 144 -1.26 8.84 168 -1.33 9.48 192 -1.34 10.02 216 -1.37 10.69 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.03 0.91 0.91 0.99 0.99 13.9 13.8 48 0.03 0.05 1.78 1.79 0.98 0.98 24.0 24.0 72 0.05 0.09 2.77 2.80 0.94 0.94 33.0 32.9 96 0.13 3.89 0.88 41.1 120 0.19 5.02 0.80 48.8 144 0.25 6.18 0.70 55.1 168 0.35 7.14 0.59 60.3 192 0.48 7.94 0.49 64.2 216 0.60 8.74 0.39 67.1 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.74 0.74 8.38 8.32 1.00 1.00 10.5 10.4 48 1.08 1.13 17.03 17.13 0.98 0.98 18.9 18.9 72 1.31 1.48 27.36 28.03 0.96 0.96 26.7 27.0 96 1.54 39.93 0.91 34.7 120 1.50 53.45 0.84 42.1 144 1.35 67.84 0.74 48.5 168 1.63 80.27 0.63 54.0 192 1.99 89.56 0.54 57.9 216 2.48 98.93 0.45 60.7 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.48 0.57 10.92 10.90 1.00 1.00 9.0 9.0 48 0.37 0.51 22.27 22.48 0.99 0.99 16.1 16.2 72 -0.12 -0.07 36.35 37.31 0.96 0.96 23.1 23.4 96 -0.86 53.77 0.92 30.6 120 -1.97 71.95 0.85 37.7 144 -3.25 91.83 0.75 44.2 168 -3.97 111.00 0.62 49.8 192 -5.04 124.66 0.53 53.7 216 -4.94 136.40 0.44 56.3 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.52 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.96 0.96 72 -0.02 -0.02 1.49 1.52 0.91 0.91 96 -0.04 2.02 0.84 120 -0.09 2.52 0.74 144 -0.13 3.01 0.63 168 -0.15 3.53 0.49 192 -0.23 3.86 0.39 216 -0.25 4.06 0.34 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 0.64 0.64 0.98 0.98 48 -0.04 -0.06 1.17 1.17 0.94 0.95 72 -0.09 -0.11 1.67 1.70 0.88 0.88 96 -0.16 2.18 0.80 120 -0.23 2.65 0.70 144 -0.30 3.07 0.59 168 -0.36 3.38 0.50 192 -0.42 3.66 0.41 216 -0.46 3.87 0.34 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.11 2.36 2.34 48 -0.21 -0.22 4.34 4.35 72 -0.30 -0.34 6.23 6.28 96 -0.47 8.13 120 -0.61 10.00 144 -0.68 11.78 168 -0.75 13.23 192 -0.88 14.16 216 -0.86 14.99 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.21 3.45 3.44 48 -0.40 -0.38 6.10 6.13 72 -0.56 -0.54 8.76 8.85 96 -0.68 11.58 120 -0.84 14.31 144 -0.95 17.14 168 -1.07 19.59 192 -1.03 21.20 216 -0.91 22.38 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.72 -2.42 8.56 8.99 0.98 0.98 48 -4.56 -3.76 12.78 12.57 0.98 0.98 72 -4.44 -5.17 18.61 19.11 0.97 0.97 96 -4.66 25.47 0.95 120 -4.19 33.25 0.92 144 -4.83 42.96 0.85 168 -4.50 52.34 0.78 192 -5.07 58.86 0.74 216 -9.70 64.77 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.79 -7.78 12.53 12.35 0.99 0.99 48 -11.35 -10.95 20.66 19.63 0.99 0.99 72 -12.58 -13.26 30.17 30.24 0.98 0.98 96 -12.86 40.89 0.96 120 -11.36 52.39 0.93 144 -10.82 67.41 0.88 168 -9.69 85.64 0.80 192 -10.90 102.79 0.73 216 -14.60 118.56 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.52 -9.67 16.39 15.86 0.99 0.99 48 -15.14 -14.85 28.51 26.42 0.99 0.99 72 -18.87 -19.71 41.29 41.82 0.98 0.98 96 -20.13 55.48 0.96 120 -18.04 70.79 0.93 144 -17.27 92.19 0.88 168 -14.79 116.09 0.82 192 -15.68 140.91 0.74 216 -18.43 165.75 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.72 1.79 1.90 0.92 0.93 48 -0.60 -0.79 1.96 2.12 0.95 0.95 72 -0.59 -0.75 2.31 2.45 0.95 0.95 96 -0.67 2.95 0.92 120 -0.54 3.55 0.89 144 -0.40 4.30 0.82 168 -0.27 5.26 0.76 192 -0.38 6.16 0.67 216 -0.30 6.80 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.08 0.89 0.93 0.96 0.95 48 -0.15 -0.19 1.25 1.23 0.96 0.96 72 -0.24 -0.31 1.71 1.73 0.95 0.95 96 -0.33 2.19 0.93 120 -0.34 2.72 0.88 144 -0.30 3.35 0.82 168 -0.20 4.00 0.73 192 -0.20 4.53 0.68 216 -0.20 5.14 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.36 1.22 1.20 0.93 0.93 48 0.32 0.39 1.56 1.51 0.92 0.93 72 0.28 0.34 1.95 1.90 0.90 0.90 96 0.35 2.30 0.87 120 0.43 2.77 0.83 144 0.50 3.14 0.76 168 0.44 3.60 0.68 192 0.49 3.91 0.65 216 0.67 4.10 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.74 4.00 4.03 48 -0.57 -0.85 4.57 4.58 72 -0.68 -0.86 5.30 5.42 96 -0.98 6.59 120 -1.02 7.62 144 -1.11 9.04 168 -1.04 10.20 192 -0.97 10.71 216 -0.87 11.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.58 4.43 4.49 48 -0.68 -0.66 5.67 5.81 72 -0.77 -0.78 7.43 7.42 96 -0.99 9.42 120 -0.92 11.41 144 -0.97 13.14 168 -1.11 15.38 192 -1.14 16.90 216 -1.11 18.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.75 5.54 5.50 48 -1.02 -0.98 7.49 7.45 72 -1.33 -1.22 9.70 9.74 96 -1.34 12.16 120 -1.36 14.99 144 -1.20 18.08 168 -1.58 21.11 192 -2.08 23.89 216 -2.10 26.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.11 -1.80 8.50 8.57 0.98 0.98 48 -4.14 -3.31 12.94 12.63 0.98 0.98 72 -6.47 -6.87 18.31 19.38 0.97 0.96 96 -11.23 26.84 0.94 120 -11.46 33.47 0.92 144 -15.66 44.46 0.90 168 -17.92 56.96 0.85 192 -13.01 66.59 0.77 216 -9.51 70.44 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.14 -6.20 12.60 11.28 0.98 0.98 48 -9.52 -8.17 18.05 16.90 0.98 0.98 72 -10.10 -10.94 25.09 24.82 0.97 0.97 96 -14.35 34.85 0.94 120 -11.83 42.29 0.92 144 -9.68 55.67 0.88 168 -9.63 75.46 0.82 192 -3.33 90.75 0.78 216 0.53 100.59 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.38 -9.75 16.57 15.50 0.98 0.98 48 -12.64 -12.50 24.03 23.58 0.97 0.97 72 -12.53 -15.19 33.61 33.37 0.96 0.97 96 -17.23 47.40 0.94 120 -13.67 56.13 0.92 144 -6.11 76.58 0.87 168 -3.52 104.19 0.81 192 5.58 124.88 0.79 216 12.96 135.69 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.25 1.49 1.36 0.87 0.87 48 -0.41 -0.24 1.63 1.52 0.90 0.90 72 -0.29 -0.16 1.92 1.82 0.91 0.91 96 -0.10 2.36 0.87 120 0.21 3.05 0.81 144 0.79 3.55 0.77 168 1.07 4.26 0.72 192 1.19 4.87 0.68 216 1.29 5.14 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.17 0.79 0.78 0.93 0.94 48 -0.19 -0.25 1.05 1.09 0.94 0.94 72 -0.13 -0.22 1.45 1.43 0.91 0.92 96 -0.17 2.03 0.87 120 -0.06 2.40 0.84 144 0.26 3.02 0.78 168 0.38 3.83 0.73 192 0.54 4.23 0.72 216 0.69 4.60 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.50 0.55 1.30 1.38 0.91 0.90 48 0.54 0.60 1.60 1.67 0.91 0.89 72 0.52 0.61 1.93 1.97 0.88 0.87 96 0.66 2.42 0.82 120 0.61 2.69 0.78 144 0.54 2.98 0.72 168 0.62 3.52 0.66 192 0.75 3.71 0.61 216 0.79 3.99 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.48 4.06 4.02 48 -0.62 -0.55 4.59 4.56 72 -0.58 -0.47 5.42 5.32 96 -0.25 6.34 120 -0.34 7.25 144 -0.18 8.14 168 -0.31 9.42 192 -0.59 10.29 216 -0.83 10.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.49 3.96 4.08 48 -0.51 -0.63 5.07 5.11 72 -0.55 -0.63 6.43 6.41 96 -0.32 8.31 120 -0.16 9.45 144 -0.21 10.90 168 -0.06 13.09 192 -0.14 14.37 216 0.21 15.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.72 4.96 5.02 48 -0.73 -1.12 6.54 6.82 72 -0.75 -1.20 8.48 8.74 96 -1.01 11.04 120 -0.84 12.54 144 -0.50 15.25 168 -0.61 18.32 192 -0.18 20.73 216 0.22 21.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 5.95 5.53 13.85 12.23 0.97 0.97 48 6.73 6.98 16.44 15.49 0.96 0.97 72 7.12 7.72 18.93 18.89 0.94 0.94 96 8.62 23.94 0.90 120 11.10 30.49 0.83 144 13.77 36.84 0.78 168 14.31 40.60 0.73 192 11.97 47.30 0.65 216 11.97 49.02 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.47 -1.65 12.02 12.35 0.98 0.97 48 -4.32 -2.62 16.43 16.49 0.97 0.97 72 -6.40 -3.96 23.12 23.21 0.95 0.94 96 -4.19 31.75 0.92 120 -2.71 42.75 0.83 144 0.39 49.31 0.80 168 1.02 58.65 0.71 192 -2.44 68.55 0.67 216 -3.81 72.96 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.65 -5.72 20.15 20.21 0.97 0.97 48 -12.35 -7.98 27.38 27.45 0.96 0.96 72 -18.24 -12.90 37.92 36.87 0.95 0.94 96 -16.70 48.41 0.90 120 -16.83 61.01 0.84 144 -14.51 67.63 0.82 168 -13.25 79.71 0.75 192 -16.63 93.20 0.70 216 -16.32 99.70 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -1.03 2.28 2.36 0.92 0.93 48 -0.91 -1.10 2.55 2.63 0.93 0.93 72 -0.88 -1.11 2.84 2.93 0.92 0.92 96 -0.98 3.36 0.89 120 -0.81 3.91 0.83 144 -0.65 4.41 0.79 168 -0.61 5.04 0.71 192 -0.80 5.67 0.65 216 -0.79 6.06 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 121 12 UTC = 121 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.28 1.12 1.11 0.95 0.95 48 -0.56 -0.44 1.44 1.42 0.95 0.94 72 -0.74 -0.59 1.88 1.86 0.92 0.92 96 -0.75 2.35 0.89 120 -0.81 2.86 0.84 144 -0.82 3.25 0.80 168 -0.84 3.74 0.73 192 -0.84 4.18 0.68 216 -0.93 4.42 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.34 1.53 1.49 0.91 0.91 48 0.34 0.41 1.84 1.82 0.89 0.89 72 0.35 0.41 2.17 2.18 0.86 0.86 96 0.39 2.53 0.83 120 0.31 2.90 0.77 144 0.25 3.15 0.74 168 0.28 3.49 0.71 192 0.27 3.83 0.66 216 0.34 3.91 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -1.04 4.17 4.08 48 -0.97 -1.21 4.69 4.53 72 -1.11 -1.30 5.29 5.21 96 -1.40 6.19 120 -1.50 7.16 144 -1.48 7.82 168 -1.37 8.70 192 -1.27 9.53 216 -1.15 9.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 121 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.42 4.58 4.58 48 -0.77 -0.40 5.61 5.57 72 -0.94 -0.52 7.00 6.92 96 -0.68 8.58 120 -0.96 10.09 144 -1.34 11.25 168 -1.34 12.81 192 -1.24 14.12 216 -1.35 14.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 137 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.76 6.28 6.10 48 -0.75 -0.86 7.65 7.67 72 -0.78 -0.87 9.17 9.35 96 -1.08 11.32 120 -1.31 13.17 144 -1.51 15.32 168 -1.45 17.21 192 -1.01 18.73 216 -0.94 19.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 135 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.84 -4.55 7.83 9.08 0.97 0.97 48 -3.36 -4.25 9.67 12.08 0.96 0.96 72 -2.53 -3.10 12.40 15.33 0.95 0.93 96 -2.23 20.70 0.92 120 -3.43 27.70 0.91 144 -3.02 30.82 0.81 168 -0.58 34.40 0.84 192 2.65 38.16 0.81 216 2.85 44.87 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.64 -10.30 11.76 13.79 0.95 0.97 48 -7.76 -10.24 14.29 17.12 0.97 0.98 72 -7.52 -9.72 17.72 21.55 0.96 0.96 96 -10.11 28.41 0.94 120 -11.83 38.02 0.92 144 -13.88 46.26 0.87 168 -11.18 51.74 0.83 192 -7.33 55.20 0.81 216 -9.25 63.08 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.86 -14.65 16.94 20.15 0.97 0.97 48 -11.95 -14.88 21.00 24.06 0.97 0.98 72 -12.70 -15.29 26.22 30.68 0.97 0.98 96 -17.82 40.18 0.95 120 -22.54 54.71 0.93 144 -26.69 66.97 0.89 168 -23.97 76.64 0.80 192 -21.23 80.69 0.80 216 -24.77 93.62 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.34 1.22 1.25 0.84 0.88 48 -0.05 -0.34 1.34 1.36 0.87 0.91 72 0.04 -0.32 1.50 1.51 0.89 0.91 96 -0.39 1.85 0.89 120 -0.45 2.02 0.88 144 -0.43 2.33 0.84 168 -0.41 2.81 0.80 192 -0.45 2.98 0.76 216 -0.35 3.25 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.12 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.86 48 -0.22 -0.14 1.00 1.09 0.91 0.90 72 -0.28 -0.16 1.23 1.37 0.90 0.90 96 -0.26 1.45 0.89 120 -0.26 1.75 0.85 144 -0.46 2.03 0.82 168 -0.34 2.40 0.72 192 -0.32 2.51 0.72 216 -0.46 2.69 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.17 0.89 0.94 0.89 0.87 48 0.14 0.11 1.03 1.15 0.89 0.87 72 0.06 0.12 1.23 1.45 0.89 0.86 96 0.01 1.61 0.86 120 -0.17 1.97 0.81 144 -0.24 2.12 0.82 168 -0.49 2.50 0.73 192 -0.64 2.81 0.63 216 -0.62 3.01 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.37 3.78 3.68 48 -0.43 -0.48 4.16 4.07 72 -0.45 -0.69 4.63 4.74 96 -0.78 5.28 120 -0.78 6.13 144 -0.72 6.96 168 -0.69 7.79 192 -0.87 8.09 216 -0.90 8.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 22 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.69 4.09 4.09 48 -0.88 -0.81 4.66 4.87 72 -0.97 -1.15 5.63 5.81 96 -1.38 6.76 120 -1.51 8.10 144 -1.36 8.88 168 -1.16 9.94 192 -1.68 10.88 216 -1.61 11.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 22 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -0.93 5.38 5.32 48 -1.22 -1.12 6.40 6.53 72 -1.56 -1.42 8.23 8.00 96 -1.63 9.91 120 -1.64 11.76 144 -1.64 13.42 168 -1.34 15.34 192 -1.57 17.35 216 -1.60 17.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 22 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.06 -2.77 9.85 10.19 0.74 0.74 48 -3.82 -3.53 10.18 10.51 0.84 0.82 72 -4.11 -4.02 10.46 10.83 0.83 0.82 96 -3.81 11.32 0.79 120 -3.79 11.67 0.77 144 -3.88 12.33 0.75 168 -3.75 13.09 0.72 192 -4.03 13.76 0.65 216 -4.15 14.24 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.34 -5.36 12.43 12.68 0.65 0.63 48 -5.57 -5.52 12.67 12.95 0.78 0.77 72 -6.18 -5.91 13.13 13.28 0.79 0.77 96 -6.31 13.84 0.73 120 -7.07 14.68 0.73 144 -7.89 15.76 0.75 168 -8.35 16.78 0.72 192 -9.00 17.39 0.68 216 -9.14 17.92 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.39 -11.84 16.82 18.15 0.67 0.67 48 -11.15 -12.48 17.96 19.19 0.79 0.80 72 -11.31 -12.50 18.65 19.87 0.80 0.81 96 -12.56 20.92 0.81 120 -13.17 22.16 0.81 144 -14.51 23.76 0.82 168 -15.67 25.71 0.79 192 -16.93 27.07 0.77 216 -17.28 28.57 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.30 0.98 1.12 0.50 0.50 48 -0.08 -0.23 0.98 1.16 0.65 0.64 72 -0.01 -0.19 1.00 1.18 0.69 0.70 96 -0.18 1.23 0.72 120 -0.19 1.26 0.71 144 -0.20 1.32 0.69 168 -0.21 1.39 0.66 192 -0.25 1.46 0.65 216 -0.28 1.55 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.25 0.85 0.85 0.53 0.56 48 -0.26 -0.29 0.90 0.93 0.62 0.62 72 -0.31 -0.33 0.97 0.97 0.65 0.67 96 -0.36 1.03 0.67 120 -0.39 1.10 0.66 144 -0.42 1.18 0.65 168 -0.45 1.22 0.66 192 -0.46 1.25 0.64 216 -0.43 1.28 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.07 0.70 0.67 0.57 0.58 48 0.03 -0.04 0.77 0.74 0.63 0.69 72 0.09 0.03 0.81 0.78 0.67 0.70 96 0.05 0.86 0.69 120 0.06 0.90 0.69 144 0.03 0.95 0.70 168 -0.03 0.98 0.69 192 -0.07 1.05 0.65 216 -0.11 1.05 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -0.74 3.65 3.56 48 -0.92 -0.81 3.93 3.88 72 -0.95 -0.80 4.11 4.16 96 -0.79 4.35 120 -0.87 4.54 144 -0.97 4.74 168 -0.99 4.99 192 -1.06 5.20 216 -1.16 5.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.89 3.93 3.86 48 -0.97 -0.91 4.25 4.19 72 -0.98 -0.92 4.61 4.50 96 -0.86 4.89 120 -0.84 5.28 144 -0.77 5.78 168 -0.70 6.05 192 -0.83 6.35 216 -0.82 6.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.12 -1.01 4.95 5.04 48 -1.40 -1.22 5.80 5.97 72 -1.69 -1.49 6.40 6.69 96 -1.61 7.31 120 -1.71 8.02 144 -1.80 8.67 168 -1.83 9.11 192 -1.71 9.29 216 -1.67 9.88 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.22 10.70 10.41 0.98 0.98 48 -0.92 -0.61 14.15 13.99 0.98 0.98 72 -1.49 -1.61 19.50 19.76 0.97 0.97 96 -2.25 27.09 0.95 120 -1.74 35.04 0.91 144 -2.05 45.00 0.87 168 -2.28 53.97 0.82 192 -1.98 60.58 0.77 216 -3.35 64.87 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 316 12 UTC = 311 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.65 -5.14 13.04 12.86 0.98 0.98 48 -7.38 -6.82 18.87 18.61 0.98 0.98 72 -8.64 -8.55 27.34 27.44 0.97 0.97 96 -9.17 38.46 0.95 120 -7.99 50.51 0.92 144 -7.06 64.33 0.87 168 -6.30 79.65 0.82 192 -5.23 93.35 0.76 216 -6.39 104.58 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 334 12 UTC = 327 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.84 -8.18 18.64 18.30 0.98 0.98 48 -11.66 -10.80 26.76 26.13 0.98 0.98 72 -14.50 -14.26 37.76 37.63 0.97 0.97 96 -16.01 51.48 0.95 120 -15.13 66.36 0.92 144 -13.66 84.28 0.88 168 -11.82 104.86 0.83 192 -9.98 123.98 0.77 216 -9.52 140.10 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 333 12 UTC = 326 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.63 1.86 1.90 0.92 0.93 48 -0.58 -0.66 2.07 2.13 0.94 0.94 72 -0.55 -0.64 2.37 2.43 0.93 0.94 96 -0.56 2.89 0.91 120 -0.42 3.52 0.87 144 -0.26 4.20 0.81 168 -0.13 4.94 0.75 192 -0.13 5.66 0.68 216 -0.08 6.13 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 381 12 UTC = 373 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.19 0.99 0.99 0.95 0.95 48 -0.30 -0.28 1.29 1.29 0.96 0.96 72 -0.39 -0.37 1.73 1.73 0.94 0.94 96 -0.42 2.26 0.91 120 -0.43 2.84 0.87 144 -0.41 3.42 0.81 168 -0.36 4.01 0.76 192 -0.26 4.46 0.71 216 -0.27 4.88 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 411 12 UTC = 403 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.34 1.37 1.36 0.92 0.92 48 0.35 0.37 1.69 1.67 0.92 0.92 72 0.35 0.37 2.07 2.05 0.90 0.90 96 0.37 2.47 0.86 120 0.34 2.90 0.82 144 0.34 3.28 0.77 168 0.30 3.66 0.73 192 0.28 3.96 0.68 216 0.38 4.17 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 406 12 UTC = 397 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.77 4.03 4.00 48 -0.78 -0.89 4.58 4.51 72 -0.85 -0.93 5.37 5.33 96 -0.96 6.42 120 -0.99 7.49 144 -1.01 8.61 168 -0.96 9.60 192 -0.96 10.27 216 -0.90 10.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 366 12 UTC = 362 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.55 4.38 4.45 48 -0.67 -0.58 5.54 5.60 72 -0.77 -0.65 7.14 7.12 96 -0.73 9.02 120 -0.81 10.81 144 -0.95 12.47 168 -0.96 14.24 192 -0.91 15.60 216 -0.90 16.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.67 5.53 5.48 48 -0.73 -0.83 7.07 7.15 72 -0.80 -0.89 8.90 9.10 96 -0.99 11.31 120 -1.07 13.64 144 -1.07 16.31 168 -1.10 18.69 192 -0.98 20.85 216 -0.91 22.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 396 12 UTC = 389 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.64 -2.10 8.72 9.94 0.97 0.97 48 -1.78 -2.20 11.53 12.84 0.97 0.97 72 -1.15 -1.41 15.17 16.20 0.95 0.95 96 -1.53 21.01 0.92 120 -1.32 28.36 0.88 144 -0.98 35.35 0.83 168 -0.94 39.09 0.82 192 1.32 43.57 0.77 216 0.01 49.36 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.25 -7.74 13.00 13.17 0.97 0.98 48 -7.56 -7.75 15.94 17.70 0.97 0.97 72 -7.15 -6.87 20.52 22.78 0.96 0.96 96 -6.92 29.59 0.94 120 -7.93 39.22 0.90 144 -7.95 50.46 0.83 168 -8.59 57.54 0.78 192 -5.56 60.31 0.76 216 -6.87 70.11 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.13 -10.63 19.42 18.67 0.97 0.98 48 -11.60 -11.63 24.43 25.72 0.97 0.97 72 -12.47 -12.57 31.32 34.07 0.96 0.96 96 -13.35 43.79 0.94 120 -16.55 57.96 0.89 144 -17.89 73.20 0.83 168 -18.33 83.82 0.78 192 -16.38 88.50 0.77 216 -17.97 99.07 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.61 1.57 1.55 0.87 0.87 48 -0.40 -0.60 1.70 1.66 0.90 0.90 72 -0.33 -0.54 1.89 1.79 0.90 0.90 96 -0.52 2.09 0.89 120 -0.59 2.38 0.84 144 -0.61 2.88 0.77 168 -0.62 3.32 0.71 192 -0.60 3.51 0.70 216 -0.46 3.69 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.03 0.91 0.96 0.89 0.91 48 -0.17 -0.06 1.07 1.21 0.92 0.91 72 -0.23 -0.11 1.32 1.53 0.90 0.90 96 -0.14 1.74 0.88 120 -0.20 2.09 0.83 144 -0.26 2.54 0.74 168 -0.26 2.78 0.71 192 -0.27 2.95 0.70 216 -0.27 3.08 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.11 1.12 1.18 0.89 0.89 48 0.07 0.07 1.34 1.48 0.88 0.89 72 -0.02 0.01 1.59 1.83 0.87 0.87 96 -0.06 2.09 0.83 120 -0.15 2.44 0.78 144 -0.30 2.78 0.74 168 -0.32 3.00 0.69 192 -0.51 3.17 0.67 216 -0.52 3.38 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.65 4.29 4.15 48 -0.59 -0.70 4.64 4.42 72 -0.67 -0.87 5.14 4.92 96 -0.88 5.61 120 -0.92 6.36 144 -0.93 7.27 168 -0.95 8.13 192 -1.12 8.45 216 -1.09 8.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.58 4.30 4.22 48 -0.78 -0.56 5.01 5.14 72 -0.83 -0.74 6.08 6.25 96 -0.78 7.53 120 -0.81 8.71 144 -0.87 9.90 168 -0.80 11.21 192 -1.22 11.69 216 -1.07 12.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.91 -0.74 5.69 5.62 48 -1.14 -0.90 6.93 6.98 72 -1.36 -0.97 8.79 8.74 96 -0.97 10.85 120 -1.10 12.77 144 -1.46 14.91 168 -1.31 16.76 192 -1.54 18.41 216 -1.36 19.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------