VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY APRIL 2013 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.07 0.95 0.98 0.99 0.99 17.7 18.6 48 0.08 0.07 1.59 1.62 0.98 0.98 26.5 27.7 72 0.04 0.02 2.38 2.42 0.96 0.96 35.0 36.3 96 -0.07 3.36 0.92 45.1 120 -0.14 4.37 0.87 53.2 144 -0.24 5.47 0.79 61.0 168 -0.31 6.67 0.68 68.9 192 -0.45 7.67 0.57 74.9 216 -0.63 8.46 0.47 79.7 240 -0.81 9.21 0.37 82.7 264 -0.99 9.68 0.32 84.5 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.60 6.92 7.17 1.00 1.00 10.4 10.5 48 -0.41 -0.65 14.03 14.41 0.99 0.99 18.6 18.9 72 -0.73 -1.03 23.30 23.65 0.97 0.97 27.0 27.3 96 -1.60 34.42 0.94 35.5 120 -2.20 46.06 0.90 43.2 144 -3.36 59.66 0.83 50.3 168 -4.34 73.48 0.74 56.7 192 -5.89 86.78 0.63 62.3 216 -7.67 98.09 0.53 67.0 240 -9.19 107.87 0.42 71.0 264 -10.32 113.25 0.36 72.3 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.13 -1.44 9.38 9.83 1.00 1.00 8.7 8.8 48 -2.13 -2.43 18.98 19.34 0.99 0.99 15.1 15.3 72 -3.44 -3.67 30.92 31.26 0.98 0.98 21.9 22.1 96 -4.75 45.57 0.95 29.2 120 -5.93 61.56 0.91 36.2 144 -7.60 80.91 0.84 43.2 168 -8.88 98.24 0.76 48.7 192 -10.84 117.42 0.66 54.2 216 -13.48 133.72 0.55 59.0 240 -15.17 146.73 0.46 63.1 264 -15.69 153.16 0.40 64.5 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.49 0.50 0.99 0.99 48 -0.06 -0.06 0.90 0.91 0.98 0.97 72 -0.11 -0.11 1.35 1.37 0.94 0.94 96 -0.14 1.86 0.89 120 -0.18 2.38 0.83 144 -0.22 2.90 0.74 168 -0.25 3.35 0.65 192 -0.29 3.85 0.54 216 -0.34 4.25 0.44 240 -0.34 4.58 0.35 264 -0.29 4.70 0.31 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.04 0.66 0.66 0.98 0.98 48 0.03 0.04 1.09 1.10 0.96 0.96 72 0.03 0.05 1.54 1.55 0.91 0.91 96 0.05 2.01 0.84 120 0.05 2.42 0.78 144 0.04 2.78 0.71 168 0.04 3.11 0.63 192 0.06 3.38 0.56 216 0.04 3.60 0.49 240 0.02 3.79 0.43 264 0.01 3.88 0.41 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 2.31 2.33 48 -0.05 -0.02 4.07 4.13 72 -0.09 -0.06 5.85 5.90 96 -0.07 7.72 120 -0.09 9.47 144 -0.13 11.20 168 -0.19 12.83 192 -0.18 14.29 216 -0.13 15.55 240 -0.07 16.70 264 0.11 17.14 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.16 3.54 3.53 48 -0.29 -0.27 5.82 5.80 72 -0.36 -0.31 8.11 8.10 96 -0.31 10.60 120 -0.37 13.13 144 -0.47 15.91 168 -0.55 18.20 192 -0.56 20.46 216 -0.54 22.53 240 -0.43 24.27 264 -0.33 24.92 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.55 2.90 2.96 0.97 0.98 27.5 27.2 48 -0.79 -0.65 4.15 4.06 0.95 0.96 36.6 35.8 72 -0.79 -0.65 4.87 5.07 0.93 0.93 41.8 40.8 96 -0.49 5.85 0.91 44.5 120 -0.41 6.72 0.88 47.3 144 -0.30 8.03 0.82 50.2 168 -0.05 8.97 0.78 53.5 192 0.66 9.64 0.75 56.2 216 1.14 10.79 0.70 58.8 240 1.36 11.89 0.65 61.2 264 1.78 12.43 0.63 62.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.10 4.28 4.41 0.99 0.99 17.9 18.0 48 -0.23 -0.46 6.55 6.86 0.97 0.97 25.1 25.4 72 -1.11 -1.22 8.74 9.09 0.94 0.94 30.2 30.5 96 -1.96 11.18 0.90 34.7 120 -3.09 13.50 0.86 38.6 144 -4.33 15.80 0.81 42.1 168 -5.68 17.91 0.77 45.1 192 -6.36 20.10 0.71 48.4 216 -7.19 22.53 0.63 51.5 240 -8.03 24.73 0.55 54.1 264 -8.66 26.45 0.49 56.2 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.39 0.40 0.96 0.96 48 0.10 0.09 0.65 0.64 0.89 0.90 72 0.12 0.11 0.80 0.80 0.83 0.85 96 0.09 0.90 0.80 120 0.07 1.00 0.75 144 0.04 1.11 0.70 168 0.01 1.20 0.64 192 -0.02 1.31 0.57 216 -0.07 1.40 0.52 240 -0.11 1.50 0.46 264 -0.14 1.56 0.42 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.05 0.34 0.33 0.93 0.94 48 -0.01 -0.04 0.50 0.49 0.85 0.86 72 0.01 -0.02 0.61 0.59 0.77 0.79 96 -0.02 0.68 0.72 120 -0.05 0.76 0.65 144 -0.08 0.82 0.59 168 -0.14 0.89 0.53 192 -0.19 0.95 0.47 216 -0.24 1.01 0.42 240 -0.27 1.05 0.39 264 -0.30 1.09 0.36 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.06 1.45 1.43 48 -0.10 -0.09 2.16 2.14 72 -0.15 -0.13 2.63 2.61 96 -0.15 2.96 120 -0.17 3.27 144 -0.18 3.58 168 -0.23 3.86 192 -0.25 4.11 216 -0.22 4.36 240 -0.17 4.62 264 -0.16 4.78 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.34 3.10 3.11 48 -0.55 -0.58 4.61 4.64 72 -0.67 -0.67 5.74 5.75 96 -0.74 6.74 120 -0.83 7.67 144 -0.87 8.49 168 -0.93 9.19 192 -0.98 10.00 216 -1.09 10.75 240 -1.15 11.39 264 -1.08 11.79 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.05 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 14.2 14.1 48 0.06 0.07 2.00 1.99 0.97 0.97 25.0 24.8 72 0.09 0.10 3.13 3.16 0.94 0.94 34.6 34.6 96 0.15 4.46 0.87 43.4 120 0.17 5.89 0.78 51.5 144 0.23 7.22 0.66 58.0 168 0.27 8.23 0.56 63.1 192 0.32 9.16 0.46 66.7 216 0.41 10.05 0.34 70.3 240 0.56 10.63 0.25 72.5 264 0.68 10.71 0.24 73.0 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.07 8.88 8.87 1.00 1.00 10.4 10.4 48 -0.01 -0.13 18.92 19.06 0.98 0.98 19.3 19.3 72 0.05 -0.05 31.45 31.54 0.96 0.96 27.7 27.9 96 0.23 45.25 0.91 36.0 120 0.31 61.00 0.84 43.5 144 0.44 77.33 0.73 49.9 168 0.43 91.16 0.63 55.5 192 0.63 103.07 0.52 60.0 216 0.65 114.65 0.40 63.9 240 0.80 121.71 0.31 66.2 264 1.14 124.87 0.26 67.2 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.47 0.30 11.47 11.28 1.00 1.00 8.6 8.5 48 0.75 0.57 23.81 24.01 0.99 0.99 15.5 15.5 72 0.90 0.89 39.67 39.57 0.96 0.96 22.5 22.6 96 1.39 57.47 0.92 30.0 120 1.37 77.94 0.86 37.3 144 1.14 99.36 0.76 43.7 168 0.63 118.69 0.65 49.4 192 0.18 133.56 0.56 53.8 216 -0.98 151.19 0.43 58.0 240 -1.97 163.06 0.32 61.0 264 -2.44 169.16 0.25 62.3 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.55 0.55 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 -0.01 1.05 1.06 0.96 0.96 72 -0.01 -0.01 1.61 1.61 0.91 0.91 96 -0.01 2.17 0.84 120 -0.03 2.73 0.75 144 -0.04 3.25 0.64 168 -0.06 3.71 0.52 192 -0.08 4.00 0.44 216 -0.15 4.40 0.33 240 -0.20 4.66 0.24 264 -0.24 4.79 0.19 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.05 0.65 0.65 0.98 0.98 48 0.08 0.08 1.20 1.19 0.94 0.94 72 0.09 0.10 1.78 1.78 0.86 0.86 96 0.10 2.31 0.77 120 0.09 2.83 0.65 144 0.06 3.24 0.53 168 0.01 3.59 0.42 192 -0.04 3.93 0.31 216 -0.10 4.11 0.24 240 -0.16 4.23 0.19 264 -0.21 4.26 0.19 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.03 2.48 2.46 48 -0.05 -0.07 4.66 4.68 72 -0.09 -0.11 6.78 6.80 96 -0.15 8.83 120 -0.22 10.79 144 -0.32 12.59 168 -0.40 14.19 192 -0.44 15.54 216 -0.50 16.70 240 -0.53 17.52 264 -0.59 17.84 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.07 3.48 3.45 48 -0.20 -0.16 6.14 6.16 72 -0.27 -0.18 8.91 8.91 96 -0.22 11.88 120 -0.30 14.80 144 -0.40 17.55 168 -0.55 20.14 192 -0.62 22.25 216 -0.75 24.29 240 -0.80 25.93 264 -0.83 26.62 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.00 -1.65 8.82 9.31 0.98 0.98 48 -4.21 -3.06 12.57 12.90 0.98 0.98 72 -3.63 -3.71 16.66 17.43 0.97 0.97 96 -4.09 22.90 0.94 120 -4.16 30.33 0.90 144 -5.88 38.01 0.85 168 -7.76 47.05 0.77 192 -6.57 57.72 0.67 216 -8.40 61.91 0.68 240 -6.87 67.11 0.65 264 -7.96 67.34 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.21 -6.19 12.71 12.05 0.99 0.99 48 -8.12 -7.40 17.85 17.62 0.99 0.99 72 -7.46 -7.85 24.16 23.81 0.98 0.98 96 -6.77 32.10 0.96 120 -6.17 44.34 0.91 144 -9.15 58.25 0.86 168 -11.17 69.30 0.80 192 -11.21 86.42 0.73 216 -13.58 95.62 0.71 240 -8.77 101.10 0.71 264 -6.89 104.48 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.61 -7.65 17.07 16.49 0.99 0.99 48 -9.73 -9.06 25.44 24.98 0.99 0.99 72 -10.14 -10.58 34.81 34.05 0.98 0.98 96 -9.50 46.53 0.96 120 -8.14 64.05 0.91 144 -12.12 85.64 0.86 168 -14.53 99.62 0.80 192 -17.04 123.70 0.76 216 -23.98 141.46 0.71 240 -19.51 149.02 0.69 264 -14.03 152.02 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.62 1.87 1.96 0.93 0.94 48 -0.36 -0.48 2.03 2.13 0.95 0.95 72 -0.17 -0.37 2.26 2.39 0.94 0.95 96 -0.23 2.76 0.93 120 -0.17 3.23 0.88 144 -0.21 3.83 0.85 168 -0.20 4.42 0.77 192 -0.14 5.28 0.68 216 -0.04 5.92 0.66 240 0.33 6.37 0.65 264 0.54 6.60 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.05 0.92 0.95 0.96 0.95 48 -0.02 -0.10 1.18 1.22 0.96 0.96 72 -0.10 -0.16 1.52 1.52 0.95 0.95 96 -0.09 2.00 0.92 120 -0.13 2.59 0.85 144 -0.22 3.22 0.79 168 -0.23 3.58 0.75 192 -0.38 4.17 0.71 216 -0.56 4.62 0.66 240 -0.50 4.92 0.65 264 -0.29 4.89 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.32 1.16 1.17 0.93 0.93 48 0.34 0.41 1.45 1.46 0.93 0.93 72 0.37 0.40 1.76 1.74 0.92 0.92 96 0.37 2.07 0.88 120 0.43 2.48 0.83 144 0.48 2.71 0.79 168 0.51 2.97 0.74 192 0.57 3.38 0.67 216 0.53 3.74 0.67 240 0.42 3.86 0.66 264 0.45 3.83 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.85 4.16 4.35 48 -0.42 -0.86 4.70 4.95 72 -0.42 -0.90 5.40 5.75 96 -0.84 6.73 120 -0.75 7.94 144 -0.82 9.02 168 -0.84 10.00 192 -0.96 11.10 216 -1.03 11.92 240 -1.19 12.52 264 -1.02 12.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.52 4.39 4.64 48 -0.39 -0.56 5.37 5.52 72 -0.43 -0.55 6.51 6.72 96 -0.40 8.34 120 -0.46 10.40 144 -0.32 11.98 168 -0.18 13.65 192 -0.49 15.47 216 -0.73 16.62 240 -1.24 17.89 264 -1.05 18.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.70 5.94 5.91 48 -1.09 -0.94 8.11 7.64 72 -1.17 -0.96 9.91 9.53 96 -0.86 11.92 120 -0.82 15.05 144 -0.87 17.68 168 -0.93 20.34 192 -1.38 23.45 216 -1.76 25.94 240 -1.81 27.83 264 -2.00 27.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.93 -4.89 9.35 8.46 0.98 0.98 48 -7.01 -7.72 12.25 11.94 0.98 0.98 72 -7.14 -8.44 15.88 16.94 0.96 0.96 96 -7.03 24.93 0.93 120 -4.53 31.19 0.89 144 -5.35 37.61 0.85 168 -8.13 44.52 0.80 192 -13.09 57.05 0.71 216 -8.29 64.58 0.68 240 -3.21 70.43 0.64 264 -8.65 70.55 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.24 -8.83 14.77 12.55 0.98 0.98 48 -11.91 -12.09 18.61 18.20 0.98 0.98 72 -12.02 -13.06 24.59 25.82 0.96 0.96 96 -12.56 38.18 0.92 120 -10.18 49.38 0.87 144 -7.81 57.27 0.84 168 -5.64 66.78 0.78 192 -6.52 84.10 0.67 216 -0.93 95.83 0.58 240 5.90 106.65 0.59 264 0.19 106.02 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -14.00 -11.50 19.12 16.88 0.99 0.98 48 -14.53 -15.12 24.64 24.02 0.98 0.99 72 -16.61 -17.26 33.79 35.14 0.97 0.97 96 -18.15 51.74 0.94 120 -15.27 69.03 0.89 144 -10.19 84.94 0.84 168 -5.87 96.36 0.78 192 -7.21 116.77 0.68 216 -1.85 128.33 0.62 240 6.03 145.66 0.60 264 -5.47 151.15 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.30 1.35 1.27 0.89 0.88 48 -0.49 -0.26 1.45 1.37 0.91 0.91 72 -0.40 -0.23 1.62 1.57 0.90 0.91 96 -0.19 1.99 0.88 120 -0.19 2.58 0.81 144 -0.02 3.08 0.71 168 0.30 3.44 0.67 192 0.74 4.08 0.60 216 0.96 4.53 0.57 240 1.09 5.09 0.55 264 1.13 5.24 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.16 0.85 0.82 0.95 0.95 48 -0.13 -0.18 1.05 1.03 0.95 0.95 72 -0.19 -0.23 1.38 1.42 0.93 0.93 96 -0.37 1.98 0.88 120 -0.33 2.66 0.82 144 -0.13 3.11 0.75 168 0.06 3.41 0.68 192 0.20 3.89 0.60 216 0.16 4.20 0.55 240 0.36 4.30 0.56 264 0.15 4.31 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.53 0.54 1.28 1.26 0.93 0.93 48 0.47 0.51 1.48 1.47 0.93 0.92 72 0.45 0.49 1.82 1.81 0.89 0.89 96 0.53 2.33 0.81 120 0.48 2.86 0.74 144 0.40 3.19 0.69 168 0.48 3.31 0.68 192 0.46 3.58 0.65 216 0.31 3.96 0.55 240 0.26 3.84 0.56 264 0.16 3.74 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.37 3.81 3.82 48 -0.47 -0.34 4.22 4.25 72 -0.49 -0.46 4.96 4.87 96 -0.56 6.09 120 -0.50 7.24 144 -0.28 8.00 168 -0.19 8.62 192 -0.21 9.76 216 -0.59 10.44 240 -0.25 10.78 264 -0.26 10.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.49 4.17 4.01 48 -0.39 -0.41 5.07 4.89 72 -0.50 -0.49 6.28 6.41 96 -0.53 8.42 120 -0.36 10.97 144 -0.58 12.41 168 -0.65 13.21 192 -0.44 15.16 216 -0.54 16.82 240 -0.43 17.50 264 -0.55 16.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.59 5.17 5.00 48 -0.74 -0.76 6.41 6.26 72 -0.95 -0.92 8.20 8.31 96 -0.71 11.11 120 -0.52 15.10 144 -1.05 18.65 168 -1.13 19.81 192 -1.25 22.72 216 -1.70 24.01 240 -1.17 25.56 264 -1.38 25.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.69 4.60 12.79 11.60 0.97 0.96 48 2.69 4.10 15.43 14.65 0.97 0.96 72 0.83 2.87 18.64 18.38 0.96 0.95 96 1.86 21.30 0.92 120 2.48 25.57 0.89 144 4.80 31.28 0.83 168 6.62 37.91 0.80 192 7.16 40.25 0.79 216 4.82 46.41 0.68 240 2.28 53.29 0.58 264 2.98 54.38 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.34 -0.76 12.13 12.18 0.97 0.97 48 -3.71 -2.10 16.56 16.39 0.97 0.97 72 -6.17 -3.94 22.96 22.81 0.96 0.95 96 -5.46 28.56 0.94 120 -4.60 35.42 0.90 144 -2.87 42.40 0.86 168 -1.07 47.86 0.85 192 -1.79 54.20 0.81 216 -6.14 64.12 0.74 240 -9.61 77.33 0.66 264 -5.97 80.10 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 91 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.12 -5.16 19.35 19.61 0.97 0.97 48 -9.33 -6.31 25.60 25.20 0.97 0.96 72 -13.64 -8.72 34.68 34.20 0.96 0.95 96 -11.72 42.07 0.94 120 -12.47 52.87 0.92 144 -9.27 61.26 0.88 168 -4.89 68.90 0.86 192 -6.34 79.73 0.82 216 -15.63 95.48 0.76 240 -21.29 115.42 0.68 264 -15.70 121.75 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.06 -1.22 2.30 2.36 0.91 0.92 48 -1.15 -1.31 2.50 2.58 0.93 0.93 72 -1.16 -1.29 2.66 2.81 0.93 0.92 96 -1.22 3.00 0.91 120 -1.10 3.27 0.88 144 -0.94 3.65 0.87 168 -0.93 4.07 0.84 192 -1.06 4.54 0.78 216 -1.08 4.93 0.73 240 -1.03 5.26 0.67 264 -0.94 5.80 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 125 12 UTC = 124 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.12 1.05 1.06 0.94 0.94 48 -0.25 -0.18 1.28 1.31 0.95 0.95 72 -0.34 -0.24 1.58 1.67 0.94 0.93 96 -0.31 1.99 0.91 120 -0.34 2.43 0.88 144 -0.33 2.76 0.87 168 -0.30 3.15 0.82 192 -0.32 3.51 0.77 216 -0.51 4.00 0.71 240 -0.51 4.49 0.65 264 -0.38 4.73 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.22 1.46 1.47 0.91 0.91 48 0.18 0.25 1.77 1.75 0.91 0.91 72 0.20 0.29 2.11 2.10 0.88 0.88 96 0.34 2.46 0.84 120 0.28 2.79 0.82 144 0.28 3.10 0.79 168 0.24 3.36 0.76 192 0.18 3.49 0.74 216 0.01 3.73 0.70 240 -0.19 3.88 0.65 264 -0.28 4.12 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 137 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.74 4.16 4.02 48 -0.95 -0.76 4.69 4.54 72 -0.99 -0.77 5.24 5.25 96 -0.82 5.85 120 -0.82 6.55 144 -0.82 7.46 168 -0.99 8.33 192 -1.18 8.70 216 -1.09 9.34 240 -0.99 10.12 264 -0.98 10.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.31 4.45 4.62 48 -0.45 -0.25 5.51 5.61 72 -0.48 -0.19 6.70 6.94 96 -0.28 8.02 120 -0.50 9.12 144 -0.70 10.28 168 -0.98 11.36 192 -0.96 12.22 216 -0.89 13.63 240 -1.02 14.61 264 -0.73 15.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.76 6.10 6.25 48 -0.80 -1.01 7.54 7.73 72 -0.89 -0.91 9.00 9.35 96 -1.07 10.90 120 -1.33 12.47 144 -1.50 14.14 168 -1.90 15.71 192 -1.84 17.10 216 -1.69 19.21 240 -1.77 21.48 264 -1.55 22.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.94 -3.59 7.23 8.26 0.96 0.98 48 -1.97 -3.47 9.76 10.86 0.97 0.97 72 -1.97 -3.03 13.03 14.30 0.95 0.97 96 -4.02 20.59 0.94 120 -4.40 30.09 0.90 144 -1.99 36.66 0.89 168 1.39 43.40 0.80 192 2.83 55.44 0.70 216 4.77 60.32 0.66 240 10.53 60.59 0.60 264 16.91 62.48 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.16 -8.51 10.27 12.37 0.97 0.98 48 -7.09 -8.45 13.63 16.28 0.97 0.97 72 -7.68 -8.62 17.83 21.23 0.95 0.95 96 -10.31 28.53 0.95 120 -11.71 38.51 0.91 144 -9.28 49.43 0.90 168 -4.96 60.52 0.82 192 -3.77 73.89 0.73 216 -3.18 85.35 0.71 240 2.87 81.79 0.62 264 10.55 81.92 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.05 -11.60 13.97 16.99 0.98 0.97 48 -9.59 -10.85 19.58 21.41 0.98 0.97 72 -10.71 -11.41 27.84 29.51 0.96 0.96 96 -13.99 39.96 0.95 120 -16.25 54.00 0.92 144 -13.48 67.55 0.92 168 -6.04 85.19 0.86 192 -6.55 102.84 0.77 216 -10.00 117.45 0.73 240 -5.47 119.48 0.63 264 1.43 122.30 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.29 1.13 1.03 0.85 0.87 48 -0.42 -0.24 1.30 1.18 0.88 0.87 72 -0.45 -0.29 1.46 1.38 0.86 0.88 96 -0.40 1.67 0.84 120 -0.53 1.92 0.78 144 -0.57 2.39 0.81 168 -0.63 2.53 0.80 192 -0.42 2.88 0.78 216 -0.62 3.41 0.70 240 -0.61 3.58 0.64 264 -0.44 3.62 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.15 0.83 0.81 0.88 0.92 48 -0.10 -0.15 1.02 0.99 0.91 0.92 72 -0.12 -0.17 1.26 1.15 0.88 0.91 96 -0.18 1.55 0.88 120 -0.27 1.78 0.86 144 -0.20 2.13 0.86 168 -0.03 2.52 0.81 192 -0.16 3.00 0.76 216 -0.26 3.23 0.73 240 -0.33 3.24 0.68 264 -0.23 3.43 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.32 0.36 1.10 1.00 0.88 0.89 48 0.41 0.42 1.37 1.21 0.88 0.89 72 0.34 0.42 1.67 1.51 0.83 0.83 96 0.40 1.77 0.85 120 0.47 2.05 0.80 144 0.37 2.41 0.69 168 0.37 2.67 0.66 192 0.31 2.94 0.61 216 0.10 3.28 0.54 240 -0.13 3.28 0.54 264 -0.29 3.07 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.22 3.58 3.46 48 -0.41 -0.21 3.98 3.80 72 -0.44 -0.27 4.59 4.51 96 -0.10 5.44 120 -0.17 6.13 144 -0.25 6.53 168 -0.23 7.37 192 -0.30 8.34 216 -0.34 8.84 240 -0.43 9.24 264 -0.22 9.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.55 3.79 3.79 48 -0.45 -0.62 4.46 4.47 72 -0.59 -0.67 5.58 5.49 96 -0.83 7.10 120 -0.75 8.12 144 -0.65 9.21 168 -0.69 10.54 192 -0.58 11.68 216 -0.41 12.40 240 -0.90 13.28 264 -0.99 13.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.82 5.43 5.49 48 -0.77 -1.06 7.17 7.01 72 -0.94 -1.39 9.16 9.05 96 -1.52 11.33 120 -1.36 13.91 144 -1.09 15.05 168 -1.51 17.81 192 -1.47 20.19 216 -1.71 21.69 240 -2.19 23.06 264 -2.44 23.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.48 -2.92 10.05 9.97 0.72 0.69 48 -2.74 -3.35 10.57 10.41 0.81 0.80 72 -2.87 -3.66 10.60 10.69 0.83 0.81 96 -3.64 11.06 0.79 120 -3.55 11.41 0.77 144 -3.76 12.25 0.73 168 -3.76 12.94 0.70 192 -2.94 13.02 0.69 216 -2.50 13.63 0.67 240 -2.19 14.61 0.59 264 -1.91 15.21 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.43 -5.62 12.73 12.30 0.63 0.56 48 -4.50 -5.76 13.16 12.67 0.73 0.72 72 -5.28 -6.32 13.45 13.16 0.77 0.76 96 -7.03 13.78 0.72 120 -7.77 14.59 0.70 144 -8.62 15.74 0.70 168 -9.31 16.90 0.68 192 -9.02 17.15 0.65 216 -9.29 17.71 0.60 240 -9.25 18.72 0.50 264 -9.28 19.33 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.85 -12.16 16.88 17.80 0.65 0.67 48 -10.60 -13.27 17.83 19.00 0.78 0.78 72 -11.59 -14.33 19.00 20.23 0.80 0.82 96 -15.18 21.59 0.80 120 -16.61 23.39 0.79 144 -18.29 25.31 0.78 168 -19.90 27.35 0.75 192 -20.41 28.64 0.71 216 -21.37 30.78 0.67 240 -21.87 32.58 0.61 264 -22.26 33.60 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.08 0.99 1.04 0.48 0.48 48 -0.04 -0.01 0.99 1.09 0.60 0.57 72 0.01 0.03 1.00 1.10 0.65 0.63 96 0.00 1.12 0.64 120 -0.02 1.14 0.63 144 -0.03 1.16 0.63 168 -0.05 1.19 0.61 192 -0.07 1.27 0.60 216 -0.11 1.31 0.58 240 -0.13 1.36 0.57 264 -0.15 1.47 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.25 0.81 0.82 0.51 0.52 48 -0.25 -0.30 0.87 0.88 0.62 0.61 72 -0.29 -0.34 0.91 0.94 0.65 0.65 96 -0.37 0.97 0.67 120 -0.41 1.02 0.66 144 -0.44 1.07 0.64 168 -0.48 1.15 0.60 192 -0.53 1.21 0.59 216 -0.55 1.25 0.60 240 -0.57 1.33 0.56 264 -0.58 1.35 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 -0.07 0.67 0.63 0.62 0.59 48 0.09 -0.09 0.75 0.71 0.66 0.66 72 0.09 -0.09 0.80 0.74 0.66 0.68 96 -0.08 0.79 0.65 120 -0.10 0.86 0.62 144 -0.15 0.91 0.61 168 -0.20 0.95 0.61 192 -0.26 1.01 0.59 216 -0.29 1.03 0.60 240 -0.32 1.08 0.58 264 -0.33 1.08 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.66 3.40 3.35 48 -0.65 -0.63 3.62 3.56 72 -0.72 -0.63 3.77 3.71 96 -0.55 3.90 120 -0.55 4.06 144 -0.58 4.28 168 -0.68 4.44 192 -0.83 4.59 216 -0.85 4.80 240 -0.80 5.01 264 -0.71 5.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 56 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.24 -1.08 3.79 3.64 48 -1.39 -1.19 4.12 3.95 72 -1.47 -1.25 4.46 4.30 96 -1.32 4.59 120 -1.32 4.90 144 -1.28 5.18 168 -1.29 5.48 192 -1.26 5.79 216 -1.13 6.25 240 -1.07 6.60 264 -1.01 6.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 57 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.85 4.72 4.73 48 -1.11 -1.07 5.59 5.61 72 -1.27 -1.18 6.21 6.31 96 -1.14 7.11 120 -1.08 7.91 144 -1.02 8.34 168 -1.08 9.07 192 -1.09 9.93 216 -1.10 10.79 240 -1.27 11.12 264 -1.10 11.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 57 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.51 -0.74 10.33 10.20 0.98 0.98 48 -2.03 -1.71 13.41 13.47 0.98 0.98 72 -2.45 -2.33 17.67 17.96 0.97 0.97 96 -2.57 24.11 0.94 120 -2.54 31.45 0.91 144 -3.42 39.45 0.87 168 -4.65 48.22 0.82 192 -5.71 57.22 0.77 216 -6.20 63.23 0.72 240 -5.80 69.03 0.66 264 -7.48 71.32 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 318 12 UTC = 313 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.88 -4.82 13.49 12.99 0.98 0.98 48 -6.54 -6.20 18.09 18.13 0.98 0.98 72 -7.14 -7.12 24.91 25.33 0.97 0.97 96 -7.22 34.70 0.95 120 -6.79 46.44 0.92 144 -7.84 58.42 0.88 168 -8.66 69.76 0.83 192 -9.03 83.65 0.78 216 -10.36 94.35 0.73 240 -9.55 103.54 0.68 264 -9.40 106.72 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 336 12 UTC = 330 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.97 -7.71 19.13 18.86 0.98 0.98 48 -10.17 -9.48 25.75 25.75 0.98 0.98 72 -12.34 -11.34 35.38 35.59 0.97 0.97 96 -12.30 48.53 0.95 120 -11.92 65.17 0.92 144 -12.51 82.61 0.88 168 -12.28 95.90 0.84 192 -13.38 115.09 0.79 216 -17.96 131.21 0.74 240 -17.54 143.96 0.69 264 -16.99 149.60 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 337 12 UTC = 330 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.68 1.87 1.91 0.92 0.92 48 -0.66 -0.68 2.06 2.10 0.94 0.94 72 -0.60 -0.64 2.26 2.34 0.93 0.93 96 -0.57 2.64 0.92 120 -0.49 3.06 0.90 144 -0.46 3.59 0.86 168 -0.44 4.07 0.82 192 -0.38 4.68 0.76 216 -0.34 5.19 0.71 240 -0.22 5.60 0.68 264 -0.13 5.94 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 387 12 UTC = 379 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.12 0.98 0.98 0.95 0.95 48 -0.17 -0.17 1.22 1.24 0.96 0.96 72 -0.24 -0.22 1.56 1.60 0.95 0.94 96 -0.25 2.06 0.92 120 -0.28 2.64 0.88 144 -0.30 3.15 0.83 168 -0.29 3.53 0.79 192 -0.27 4.01 0.74 216 -0.40 4.47 0.68 240 -0.38 4.79 0.65 264 -0.32 4.95 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 415 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.30 1.33 1.33 0.93 0.92 48 0.29 0.34 1.63 1.62 0.93 0.93 72 0.29 0.34 1.97 1.98 0.91 0.91 96 0.33 2.39 0.87 120 0.31 2.81 0.83 144 0.33 3.14 0.79 168 0.33 3.43 0.75 192 0.31 3.71 0.72 216 0.23 3.96 0.67 240 0.12 4.09 0.65 264 0.07 4.19 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 412 12 UTC = 401 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.69 3.99 4.00 48 -0.72 -0.71 4.50 4.53 72 -0.74 -0.75 5.17 5.27 96 -0.79 6.19 120 -0.72 7.20 144 -0.71 8.18 168 -0.74 9.14 192 -0.83 9.86 216 -0.94 10.54 240 -0.82 11.06 264 -0.70 11.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 370 12 UTC = 363 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.51 4.32 4.44 48 -0.49 -0.49 5.36 5.44 72 -0.54 -0.48 6.64 6.87 96 -0.53 8.44 120 -0.59 10.30 144 -0.61 11.87 168 -0.70 13.14 192 -0.73 14.48 216 -0.81 15.81 240 -0.96 16.72 264 -0.78 17.04 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 404 12 UTC = 394 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.66 5.59 5.57 48 -0.80 -0.85 7.18 7.09 72 -0.90 -0.86 8.94 8.99 96 -0.91 11.22 120 -0.96 14.05 144 -1.05 16.54 168 -1.27 18.35 192 -1.42 20.52 216 -1.52 22.58 240 -1.47 24.30 264 -1.45 24.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 393 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.93 9.18 10.66 0.97 0.97 48 -0.36 -0.90 12.84 13.70 0.97 0.97 72 -0.08 -0.39 17.02 19.12 0.95 0.96 96 -0.13 24.43 0.94 120 -1.23 32.03 0.90 144 -2.62 40.16 0.85 168 -3.14 47.01 0.80 192 -1.10 51.81 0.74 216 -0.46 60.32 0.65 240 3.67 61.86 0.58 264 5.33 60.35 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.61 -7.48 12.40 13.83 0.97 0.97 48 -7.41 -7.74 17.72 18.85 0.97 0.97 72 -7.21 -7.32 23.50 26.75 0.95 0.96 96 -6.95 36.59 0.94 120 -7.69 46.58 0.92 144 -9.52 57.11 0.87 168 -10.43 70.44 0.81 192 -9.11 77.10 0.77 216 -11.26 90.02 0.69 240 -7.89 90.07 0.64 264 -9.36 94.79 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.87 -10.85 17.42 19.25 0.97 0.97 48 -10.70 -11.65 25.31 27.45 0.97 0.97 72 -11.56 -12.70 34.45 37.39 0.96 0.96 96 -12.28 50.67 0.94 120 -13.95 65.69 0.92 144 -15.69 78.85 0.89 168 -17.59 100.61 0.82 192 -18.39 108.89 0.79 216 -24.23 124.01 0.72 240 -20.98 131.43 0.65 264 -25.95 137.35 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.60 1.54 1.56 0.85 0.87 48 -0.54 -0.62 1.73 1.69 0.89 0.90 72 -0.53 -0.59 1.96 1.94 0.89 0.89 96 -0.57 2.19 0.89 120 -0.62 2.57 0.85 144 -0.65 2.97 0.81 168 -0.74 3.36 0.76 192 -0.70 3.67 0.72 216 -0.78 4.07 0.64 240 -0.85 4.24 0.60 264 -0.93 4.44 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.09 0.92 0.99 0.91 0.93 48 -0.12 -0.12 1.16 1.26 0.93 0.93 72 -0.14 -0.15 1.49 1.57 0.90 0.90 96 -0.14 2.03 0.86 120 -0.20 2.43 0.83 144 -0.15 2.69 0.80 168 -0.19 3.23 0.74 192 -0.28 3.44 0.70 216 -0.58 3.71 0.67 240 -0.52 3.93 0.63 264 -0.70 4.17 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.24 1.25 1.23 0.89 0.90 48 0.24 0.23 1.55 1.50 0.89 0.90 72 0.13 0.17 1.92 1.82 0.85 0.87 96 0.17 2.15 0.84 120 0.13 2.45 0.82 144 0.03 2.79 0.76 168 0.06 3.05 0.72 192 -0.06 3.29 0.67 216 -0.17 3.60 0.63 240 -0.38 3.71 0.60 264 -0.36 3.63 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.39 4.24 4.26 48 -0.62 -0.42 4.66 4.60 72 -0.67 -0.48 5.13 5.22 96 -0.40 6.16 120 -0.36 6.92 144 -0.52 7.47 168 -0.49 8.35 192 -0.46 8.91 216 -0.55 9.47 240 -0.55 9.87 264 -0.54 9.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.49 4.15 4.34 48 -0.30 -0.50 4.98 5.23 72 -0.49 -0.51 6.24 6.52 96 -0.64 8.16 120 -0.65 9.07 144 -0.67 10.31 168 -0.80 11.87 192 -0.47 12.87 216 -0.57 13.74 240 -0.89 14.87 264 -0.75 15.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.56 5.57 5.75 48 -0.63 -0.55 7.31 7.35 72 -0.74 -0.78 9.32 9.36 96 -0.87 11.79 120 -0.86 13.99 144 -0.43 16.33 168 -1.30 18.33 192 -0.88 20.47 216 -0.79 22.65 240 -1.08 24.28 264 -1.10 24.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------