VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.04 0.87 0.88 0.99 0.99 19.4 20.5 48 0.06 0.02 1.43 1.43 0.98 0.98 28.8 30.0 72 0.07 0.02 2.08 2.12 0.95 0.95 37.7 38.9 96 0.02 3.03 0.90 48.6 120 0.05 4.03 0.81 57.8 144 0.06 4.98 0.71 65.9 168 0.00 5.86 0.61 72.6 192 -0.05 6.55 0.51 77.7 216 -0.11 7.17 0.42 81.0 240 -0.19 7.70 0.33 84.3 264 -0.31 8.02 0.26 85.7 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.15 6.62 6.78 1.00 1.00 11.9 11.9 48 0.81 0.44 13.17 13.29 0.99 0.99 21.0 21.2 72 1.61 1.10 21.44 21.53 0.97 0.97 29.8 30.1 96 1.84 32.46 0.92 39.3 120 2.75 45.30 0.85 48.3 144 3.22 56.62 0.76 55.6 168 3.05 67.82 0.66 61.8 192 2.95 77.47 0.56 67.1 216 3.07 86.65 0.45 71.3 240 2.77 94.07 0.35 74.5 264 1.72 99.02 0.27 76.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.63 9.16 9.40 1.00 1.00 10.1 10.2 48 -0.29 -0.59 17.93 18.24 0.99 0.99 17.4 17.7 72 -0.28 -0.64 28.52 29.07 0.97 0.97 24.9 25.3 96 -0.60 43.60 0.93 33.3 120 -0.36 60.82 0.86 41.5 144 -0.38 76.47 0.78 48.5 168 -1.15 92.74 0.68 54.7 192 -1.39 106.40 0.58 59.8 216 -1.08 119.26 0.47 64.1 240 -1.52 130.42 0.37 67.3 264 -2.63 138.13 0.29 69.6 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 0.48 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 0.02 0.01 0.85 0.86 0.97 0.97 72 0.01 0.00 1.23 1.25 0.93 0.93 96 -0.02 1.71 0.87 120 -0.05 2.22 0.78 144 -0.07 2.64 0.68 168 -0.09 3.06 0.58 192 -0.10 3.40 0.48 216 -0.07 3.68 0.38 240 -0.07 3.91 0.30 264 -0.09 4.09 0.24 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.01 0.67 0.65 0.98 0.98 48 -0.02 -0.01 1.12 1.11 0.94 0.94 72 -0.04 -0.03 1.56 1.56 0.88 0.88 96 -0.04 2.02 0.79 120 -0.05 2.49 0.69 144 -0.06 2.86 0.58 168 -0.08 3.15 0.49 192 -0.09 3.42 0.40 216 -0.11 3.59 0.34 240 -0.14 3.70 0.30 264 -0.16 3.84 0.24 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.04 2.28 2.26 48 -0.16 -0.10 3.96 3.98 72 -0.21 -0.15 5.62 5.66 96 -0.19 7.42 120 -0.22 9.29 144 -0.25 10.80 168 -0.26 12.18 192 -0.23 13.40 216 -0.21 14.36 240 -0.25 15.12 264 -0.25 15.63 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.17 3.56 3.50 48 -0.31 -0.28 5.77 5.84 72 -0.39 -0.34 8.11 8.13 96 -0.38 10.68 120 -0.42 13.49 144 -0.46 15.87 168 -0.45 18.08 192 -0.46 19.97 216 -0.53 21.56 240 -0.53 22.80 264 -0.52 23.67 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.68 2.91 2.80 0.97 0.98 25.4 25.0 48 -0.75 -0.70 4.33 3.99 0.93 0.95 33.7 33.2 72 -0.68 -0.60 4.93 4.97 0.91 0.92 38.3 37.8 96 -0.42 5.67 0.90 41.2 120 -0.44 6.43 0.87 44.1 144 -0.54 7.30 0.83 47.0 168 -0.67 8.39 0.78 50.0 192 -0.52 9.60 0.72 52.7 216 -0.09 10.54 0.67 55.0 240 0.03 11.40 0.62 56.8 264 -0.40 12.02 0.57 58.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.48 0.26 4.28 4.27 0.98 0.98 19.4 19.3 48 0.48 0.19 6.34 6.57 0.96 0.96 27.1 27.0 72 0.21 0.05 8.14 8.52 0.94 0.94 32.1 32.0 96 -0.11 10.17 0.91 36.1 120 -0.40 11.96 0.87 39.8 144 -0.80 13.99 0.83 43.5 168 -1.39 16.58 0.76 47.6 192 -1.70 19.63 0.68 51.9 216 -1.62 22.10 0.60 55.1 240 -2.00 23.77 0.55 57.5 264 -2.78 25.19 0.50 59.5 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.01 0.39 0.40 0.96 0.96 48 0.09 0.07 0.63 0.62 0.89 0.91 72 0.10 0.08 0.76 0.77 0.84 0.86 96 0.07 0.87 0.81 120 0.06 0.96 0.77 144 0.06 1.05 0.73 168 0.04 1.16 0.67 192 0.01 1.28 0.61 216 0.00 1.36 0.57 240 -0.01 1.43 0.53 264 -0.01 1.47 0.51 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.03 0.36 0.35 0.92 0.93 48 0.01 -0.02 0.52 0.51 0.83 0.84 72 0.04 0.02 0.61 0.61 0.76 0.77 96 0.04 0.68 0.71 120 0.03 0.74 0.66 144 0.04 0.80 0.59 168 0.03 0.86 0.53 192 0.03 0.92 0.47 216 0.02 0.97 0.42 240 0.00 1.02 0.36 264 -0.04 1.06 0.33 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.03 1.49 1.47 48 -0.09 -0.03 2.24 2.22 72 -0.13 -0.08 2.70 2.69 96 -0.12 3.04 120 -0.17 3.32 144 -0.23 3.61 168 -0.25 3.95 192 -0.25 4.27 216 -0.26 4.50 240 -0.28 4.71 264 -0.31 4.86 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.34 3.04 3.09 48 -0.45 -0.51 4.45 4.55 72 -0.53 -0.58 5.54 5.59 96 -0.62 6.48 120 -0.63 7.27 144 -0.65 8.14 168 -0.63 9.14 192 -0.60 10.16 216 -0.58 10.96 240 -0.63 11.56 264 -0.71 11.94 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.07 1.03 1.03 0.99 0.99 14.3 14.3 48 0.07 0.08 2.07 2.04 0.97 0.98 25.7 25.4 72 0.03 0.06 3.22 3.22 0.94 0.94 35.5 35.5 96 0.02 4.58 0.87 44.4 120 -0.03 6.16 0.77 53.1 144 -0.05 7.76 0.64 61.1 168 0.01 9.20 0.50 66.8 192 0.01 9.91 0.42 69.7 216 0.01 10.70 0.35 71.9 240 0.06 11.39 0.27 74.3 264 0.20 11.82 0.22 75.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.30 9.16 9.07 1.00 1.00 10.8 10.7 48 -0.56 -0.55 19.04 18.80 0.98 0.98 20.0 19.7 72 -1.06 -0.93 30.62 30.77 0.95 0.95 28.3 28.3 96 -1.22 44.92 0.90 36.4 120 -1.46 61.06 0.81 44.2 144 -1.54 78.32 0.70 51.5 168 -0.99 94.72 0.57 57.2 192 -0.25 104.95 0.48 60.9 216 0.31 115.17 0.39 64.0 240 0.99 124.25 0.29 66.6 264 1.83 130.64 0.23 68.5 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.84 0.63 11.50 11.43 1.00 1.00 8.6 8.5 48 1.54 1.36 23.50 23.39 0.99 0.99 15.2 15.2 72 2.08 1.96 38.26 38.71 0.96 0.96 22.1 22.1 96 2.90 56.98 0.91 29.4 120 3.75 77.19 0.83 36.6 144 4.57 100.37 0.72 43.7 168 5.79 122.68 0.59 49.4 192 7.32 137.45 0.49 53.3 216 8.41 151.22 0.39 56.8 240 9.38 163.77 0.30 59.2 264 9.99 173.52 0.22 61.3 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.55 0.55 0.99 0.99 48 0.00 0.00 1.05 1.04 0.96 0.96 72 0.01 0.01 1.56 1.57 0.91 0.91 96 0.04 2.14 0.84 120 0.08 2.71 0.74 144 0.12 3.28 0.62 168 0.16 3.76 0.50 192 0.22 4.09 0.39 216 0.24 4.39 0.30 240 0.25 4.66 0.22 264 0.23 4.84 0.16 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.09 0.65 0.65 0.98 0.98 48 0.18 0.17 1.20 1.18 0.94 0.94 72 0.25 0.25 1.71 1.71 0.87 0.87 96 0.32 2.24 0.78 120 0.35 2.72 0.67 144 0.38 3.20 0.54 168 0.40 3.57 0.42 192 0.41 3.79 0.35 216 0.43 4.02 0.27 240 0.42 4.14 0.22 264 0.42 4.21 0.20 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 2.61 2.62 48 0.05 0.03 4.95 4.92 72 0.06 0.04 7.05 7.09 96 0.05 9.27 120 0.07 11.37 144 0.11 13.52 168 0.21 15.41 192 0.16 16.48 216 0.09 17.46 240 0.07 18.30 264 0.00 18.82 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.09 3.54 3.53 48 -0.12 -0.13 6.23 6.25 72 -0.18 -0.16 8.99 9.02 96 -0.17 12.14 120 -0.21 15.13 144 -0.21 18.38 168 -0.15 21.26 192 -0.18 23.29 216 -0.28 25.01 240 -0.31 26.25 264 -0.39 27.28 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.83 -1.03 8.30 7.99 0.97 0.97 48 -1.76 -0.48 10.57 10.42 0.98 0.98 72 -0.67 -0.37 14.47 15.19 0.97 0.96 96 -1.36 22.33 0.93 120 -1.23 28.42 0.90 144 0.62 34.92 0.87 168 3.49 41.09 0.80 192 2.49 46.91 0.75 216 2.17 52.62 0.67 240 -1.05 57.61 0.61 264 -5.93 59.59 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.33 -4.94 11.85 10.53 0.98 0.98 48 -5.11 -4.15 15.49 14.68 0.98 0.98 72 -3.46 -4.03 21.11 21.45 0.98 0.98 96 -5.00 31.78 0.96 120 -4.70 43.10 0.92 144 -2.99 52.37 0.90 168 0.77 62.88 0.84 192 1.16 73.31 0.77 216 1.79 83.06 0.69 240 -0.13 92.56 0.62 264 -4.55 96.85 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.69 -6.63 16.03 15.25 0.98 0.98 48 -6.99 -6.29 22.28 21.74 0.98 0.98 72 -5.77 -7.12 30.69 31.37 0.98 0.98 96 -9.18 45.65 0.96 120 -11.45 61.87 0.94 144 -10.99 76.11 0.91 168 -7.17 91.39 0.85 192 -6.70 106.94 0.76 216 -4.67 121.10 0.70 240 -4.02 135.68 0.64 264 -8.50 143.81 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.79 1.72 1.89 0.90 0.90 48 -0.62 -0.77 1.91 2.07 0.94 0.94 72 -0.55 -0.73 2.12 2.29 0.95 0.94 96 -0.67 2.65 0.93 120 -0.53 3.13 0.91 144 -0.44 3.61 0.87 168 -0.40 4.14 0.81 192 -0.37 4.45 0.74 216 -0.43 4.92 0.68 240 -0.31 5.28 0.67 264 -0.18 5.53 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.03 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 48 0.08 0.05 1.06 1.10 0.95 0.94 72 0.10 0.02 1.33 1.34 0.94 0.94 96 -0.02 1.71 0.93 120 -0.08 2.17 0.89 144 -0.12 2.54 0.86 168 -0.07 2.93 0.80 192 -0.07 3.26 0.71 216 0.02 3.57 0.67 240 0.12 3.89 0.64 264 0.11 4.09 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.25 1.11 1.09 0.90 0.90 48 0.21 0.25 1.36 1.34 0.89 0.89 72 0.17 0.22 1.62 1.63 0.87 0.86 96 0.24 1.90 0.81 120 0.21 2.24 0.74 144 0.18 2.45 0.69 168 0.13 2.58 0.66 192 0.12 2.72 0.62 216 0.14 2.92 0.58 240 0.23 3.07 0.55 264 0.28 3.19 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.98 3.94 4.16 48 -0.58 -0.99 4.46 4.68 72 -0.63 -1.12 5.03 5.39 96 -1.33 6.33 120 -1.50 7.45 144 -1.63 8.40 168 -1.62 9.56 192 -1.49 10.16 216 -1.61 10.64 240 -1.50 11.01 264 -1.66 11.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.64 4.35 4.30 48 -0.72 -0.70 5.19 5.16 72 -0.69 -0.71 6.30 6.36 96 -0.87 7.80 120 -0.84 9.39 144 -0.99 10.77 168 -0.97 12.95 192 -1.02 14.21 216 -1.16 15.37 240 -1.45 16.40 264 -1.23 16.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.70 6.24 5.86 48 -0.80 -0.99 7.80 7.52 72 -0.94 -1.08 9.67 9.48 96 -1.13 11.67 120 -1.06 14.15 144 -1.13 16.51 168 -1.36 20.24 192 -1.78 22.38 216 -1.82 24.44 240 -2.30 26.08 264 -2.15 26.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.00 -4.78 10.37 9.26 0.97 0.97 48 -6.14 -6.52 13.40 13.23 0.96 0.97 72 -3.27 -4.67 17.18 17.49 0.95 0.95 96 -0.39 24.13 0.90 120 5.01 35.27 0.82 144 14.56 47.52 0.74 168 24.25 58.44 0.69 192 26.30 64.93 0.59 216 25.93 68.68 0.52 240 27.52 77.10 0.47 264 33.02 83.21 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.28 -7.88 14.11 12.69 0.98 0.98 48 -8.15 -8.29 18.45 18.93 0.96 0.97 72 -4.47 -5.34 25.38 25.59 0.95 0.95 96 -0.93 34.88 0.92 120 5.33 52.69 0.86 144 15.20 73.86 0.77 168 27.32 89.01 0.75 192 32.94 101.88 0.68 216 31.61 115.41 0.60 240 34.63 128.99 0.53 264 41.06 133.76 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.47 -10.29 16.82 16.98 0.98 0.97 48 -9.61 -10.21 23.67 24.68 0.97 0.97 72 -6.43 -8.24 33.30 34.69 0.96 0.96 96 -4.44 46.42 0.93 120 0.66 67.71 0.85 144 12.12 94.30 0.77 168 25.41 112.27 0.77 192 34.68 132.25 0.70 216 32.33 153.36 0.64 240 37.02 171.84 0.59 264 42.39 175.64 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.15 1.23 1.16 0.88 0.88 48 -0.22 -0.04 1.44 1.40 0.91 0.89 72 -0.16 0.07 1.64 1.66 0.90 0.90 96 0.15 1.96 0.88 120 0.29 2.50 0.83 144 0.33 3.26 0.77 168 0.26 3.81 0.71 192 0.49 4.36 0.62 216 0.63 4.88 0.55 240 0.66 5.01 0.54 264 0.65 5.28 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.13 0.87 0.87 0.93 0.93 48 -0.18 -0.08 1.19 1.19 0.93 0.94 72 -0.17 -0.05 1.54 1.56 0.92 0.92 96 -0.10 1.94 0.88 120 -0.12 2.60 0.77 144 -0.07 3.34 0.68 168 0.15 3.61 0.70 192 0.39 3.91 0.66 216 0.27 4.49 0.57 240 0.43 4.84 0.56 264 0.49 4.88 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.61 0.60 1.45 1.42 0.91 0.91 48 0.71 0.64 1.88 1.81 0.90 0.90 72 0.67 0.59 2.29 2.30 0.88 0.88 96 0.55 2.68 0.84 120 0.48 3.30 0.75 144 0.40 4.09 0.64 168 0.00 4.37 0.60 192 -0.16 4.41 0.53 216 -0.12 4.77 0.45 240 -0.32 4.66 0.51 264 -0.52 4.74 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.46 3.93 3.83 48 -0.53 -0.32 4.64 4.54 72 -0.60 -0.42 5.41 5.39 96 -0.58 6.15 120 -0.43 7.46 144 -0.58 8.72 168 -0.75 9.45 192 -0.63 10.25 216 -0.75 10.12 240 -0.68 10.63 264 -0.67 11.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.61 4.41 4.36 48 -0.56 -0.72 5.80 5.79 72 -0.59 -0.74 7.47 7.39 96 -0.70 8.95 120 -0.62 11.44 144 -0.69 14.38 168 -0.95 15.69 192 -1.38 16.61 216 -1.49 17.54 240 -1.50 17.99 264 -1.36 19.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.65 5.60 5.35 48 -1.13 -0.85 7.44 7.33 72 -1.30 -1.09 9.59 9.67 96 -1.25 12.27 120 -1.40 15.97 144 -1.71 19.79 168 -1.82 21.65 192 -2.09 23.50 216 -2.17 25.23 240 -2.10 25.93 264 -1.67 27.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.77 1.15 11.08 9.44 0.96 0.95 48 1.41 1.74 13.96 12.20 0.96 0.96 72 0.86 1.85 18.01 15.65 0.94 0.94 96 1.50 19.89 0.90 120 1.56 25.43 0.85 144 3.14 29.17 0.78 168 4.70 32.78 0.73 192 5.35 38.20 0.65 216 8.20 42.64 0.59 240 8.60 45.10 0.59 264 6.04 49.87 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.51 -1.34 11.55 11.49 0.96 0.95 48 -2.15 -0.46 15.52 15.02 0.96 0.96 72 -3.08 -0.15 20.94 20.38 0.95 0.95 96 -0.50 26.89 0.91 120 0.18 34.01 0.87 144 1.10 37.74 0.83 168 0.18 42.09 0.78 192 -1.67 48.84 0.71 216 -0.18 58.37 0.63 240 -2.59 61.38 0.62 264 -5.46 64.24 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.41 -5.57 19.89 18.31 0.96 0.96 48 -7.43 -4.12 25.96 24.63 0.96 0.97 72 -7.81 -2.42 34.20 33.29 0.95 0.95 96 -2.26 43.50 0.93 120 -0.56 52.77 0.90 144 -0.62 61.60 0.85 168 -4.61 71.26 0.80 192 -8.73 82.47 0.73 216 -9.92 97.07 0.66 240 -14.59 103.44 0.64 264 -21.49 109.48 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 91 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -1.06 2.22 2.23 0.90 0.89 48 -0.95 -1.01 2.42 2.43 0.90 0.90 72 -0.92 -0.97 2.71 2.70 0.88 0.88 96 -0.91 3.01 0.85 120 -0.80 3.34 0.80 144 -0.75 3.72 0.77 168 -0.78 4.10 0.71 192 -0.78 4.58 0.61 216 -0.69 4.89 0.55 240 -0.62 5.06 0.51 264 -0.57 5.16 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 125 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.04 1.03 1.04 0.92 0.92 48 -0.12 -0.07 1.27 1.29 0.92 0.92 72 -0.12 -0.05 1.61 1.64 0.90 0.90 96 -0.07 2.01 0.87 120 -0.09 2.34 0.83 144 -0.14 2.70 0.78 168 -0.26 3.03 0.72 192 -0.32 3.47 0.63 216 -0.34 3.77 0.57 240 -0.44 4.03 0.52 264 -0.46 4.14 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.09 1.44 1.42 0.89 0.89 48 0.13 0.14 1.79 1.79 0.88 0.88 72 0.25 0.27 2.16 2.19 0.85 0.85 96 0.37 2.51 0.82 120 0.43 2.86 0.77 144 0.40 3.12 0.73 168 0.30 3.39 0.68 192 0.16 3.73 0.62 216 -0.03 3.86 0.59 240 -0.10 3.95 0.56 264 -0.35 4.00 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -0.80 4.18 4.07 48 -1.07 -0.85 4.83 4.67 72 -1.12 -0.83 5.63 5.41 96 -0.81 6.27 120 -0.78 7.09 144 -0.92 7.90 168 -0.93 8.45 192 -0.97 8.82 216 -0.80 9.62 240 -0.86 10.01 264 -0.81 10.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 121 12 UTC = 120 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.53 4.44 4.52 48 -0.81 -0.65 5.62 5.72 72 -0.85 -0.66 7.18 7.10 96 -0.66 8.46 120 -0.77 9.78 144 -0.88 10.70 168 -0.79 11.56 192 -0.74 12.69 216 -0.52 13.60 240 -0.38 14.35 264 -0.45 14.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.42 6.42 6.35 48 -0.80 -0.66 8.24 8.37 72 -0.83 -0.61 10.35 10.41 96 -0.55 12.53 120 -0.59 14.34 144 -0.58 15.74 168 -0.31 17.43 192 -0.10 19.61 216 0.13 20.79 240 0.42 21.72 264 0.18 22.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.96 -3.47 7.43 9.52 0.98 0.98 48 -3.02 -3.77 10.16 12.62 0.98 0.97 72 -4.53 -5.22 14.30 19.74 0.96 0.96 96 -6.35 26.04 0.92 120 -4.12 33.00 0.87 144 0.88 39.31 0.87 168 4.38 48.28 0.78 192 5.96 50.99 0.78 216 6.26 61.15 0.73 240 5.79 71.95 0.64 264 6.05 76.51 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.33 -8.24 10.91 13.39 0.98 0.98 48 -8.01 -8.76 14.99 17.37 0.98 0.98 72 -10.34 -11.89 21.57 26.94 0.97 0.96 96 -14.70 37.64 0.93 120 -14.46 52.23 0.87 144 -7.81 56.91 0.85 168 -1.53 68.84 0.83 192 -0.06 72.29 0.81 216 -0.97 85.47 0.76 240 0.49 98.15 0.67 264 3.66 105.99 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.31 -11.12 14.50 17.36 0.98 0.98 48 -8.04 -11.12 19.84 22.37 0.98 0.99 72 -9.04 -14.41 27.73 33.40 0.98 0.98 96 -17.67 49.50 0.94 120 -19.27 69.54 0.88 144 -8.92 74.84 0.88 168 -1.67 90.94 0.85 192 2.91 100.47 0.82 216 -1.74 112.13 0.77 240 3.79 134.27 0.69 264 9.08 141.92 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.30 1.17 1.15 0.85 0.83 48 -0.37 -0.30 1.32 1.34 0.87 0.88 72 -0.40 -0.36 1.54 1.62 0.86 0.87 96 -0.49 1.95 0.86 120 -0.81 2.46 0.74 144 -0.62 2.79 0.67 168 -0.40 2.98 0.72 192 -0.43 2.99 0.76 216 -0.54 3.32 0.68 240 -0.40 3.54 0.63 264 -0.22 3.76 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.02 0.88 0.92 0.90 0.90 48 -0.11 -0.02 1.11 1.15 0.91 0.91 72 -0.11 -0.11 1.40 1.42 0.91 0.91 96 -0.18 1.80 0.87 120 -0.35 2.35 0.81 144 -0.06 2.46 0.81 168 0.09 2.77 0.78 192 0.14 2.73 0.78 216 -0.06 3.07 0.70 240 0.18 3.67 0.61 264 0.33 3.83 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.41 0.36 1.17 1.18 0.89 0.89 48 0.55 0.48 1.45 1.52 0.88 0.90 72 0.61 0.62 1.73 1.90 0.87 0.86 96 0.63 2.29 0.80 120 0.69 2.62 0.65 144 0.56 2.86 0.57 168 0.53 3.05 0.59 192 0.69 2.95 0.66 216 0.70 3.27 0.65 240 0.66 3.46 0.50 264 0.64 3.63 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.27 3.54 3.72 48 -0.22 -0.21 4.00 4.37 72 -0.28 -0.40 4.79 5.28 96 -0.47 6.34 120 -0.61 7.56 144 -0.47 8.17 168 -0.43 9.32 192 -0.53 8.88 216 -0.69 10.18 240 -0.46 11.07 264 -0.66 11.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 18 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.47 4.15 4.39 48 -0.45 -0.50 5.08 5.19 72 -0.33 -0.62 6.43 7.00 96 -0.51 8.88 120 -0.47 10.54 144 -0.44 11.57 168 -0.62 12.49 192 -0.23 12.97 216 -0.68 13.99 240 -0.42 15.60 264 -0.65 16.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 18 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.63 5.45 5.64 48 -0.86 -0.79 6.88 7.31 72 -0.64 -0.93 8.69 9.20 96 -0.94 11.90 120 -1.09 14.67 144 -0.68 17.03 168 -1.41 18.57 192 -0.98 20.88 216 -0.84 22.47 240 -1.10 24.48 264 -1.72 24.93 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 18 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.55 -4.08 10.00 9.43 0.69 0.72 48 -2.51 -4.12 10.88 9.79 0.81 0.82 72 -2.53 -4.35 11.00 10.05 0.84 0.85 96 -4.58 10.41 0.81 120 -4.57 10.70 0.78 144 -4.95 11.16 0.77 168 -5.44 11.79 0.77 192 -5.42 12.90 0.72 216 -4.89 13.69 0.69 240 -4.60 14.51 0.65 264 -5.30 14.60 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.74 -6.38 11.84 11.89 0.62 0.60 48 -4.50 -6.11 12.06 11.99 0.78 0.75 72 -5.04 -6.48 12.36 12.27 0.80 0.79 96 -7.13 12.82 0.76 120 -7.53 13.41 0.74 144 -8.21 14.33 0.74 168 -8.91 15.31 0.76 192 -9.19 16.10 0.74 216 -9.01 16.86 0.71 240 -8.99 17.58 0.68 264 -9.69 18.17 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.65 -12.03 15.43 17.83 0.65 0.60 48 -8.41 -12.05 15.95 18.26 0.79 0.75 72 -8.64 -12.42 16.65 19.23 0.81 0.77 96 -12.62 19.79 0.76 120 -12.66 20.32 0.77 144 -13.15 21.48 0.77 168 -13.92 22.74 0.77 192 -14.42 24.73 0.74 216 -14.55 26.39 0.71 240 -14.87 27.64 0.68 264 -15.57 28.56 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.15 1.03 1.07 0.40 0.44 48 -0.04 -0.11 1.06 1.08 0.54 0.56 72 -0.05 -0.12 1.06 1.09 0.62 0.62 96 -0.12 1.13 0.62 120 -0.13 1.14 0.62 144 -0.13 1.16 0.62 168 -0.14 1.21 0.63 192 -0.16 1.25 0.64 216 -0.20 1.36 0.59 240 -0.22 1.42 0.57 264 -0.22 1.41 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.19 0.84 0.84 0.52 0.54 48 -0.18 -0.22 0.92 0.90 0.60 0.62 72 -0.21 -0.23 0.96 0.93 0.65 0.65 96 -0.23 0.95 0.67 120 -0.23 0.97 0.68 144 -0.22 1.00 0.67 168 -0.21 1.05 0.65 192 -0.21 1.14 0.61 216 -0.19 1.19 0.57 240 -0.20 1.27 0.53 264 -0.20 1.30 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.00 0.70 0.62 0.55 0.57 48 0.16 0.01 0.79 0.70 0.61 0.61 72 0.17 0.03 0.84 0.76 0.64 0.63 96 0.06 0.79 0.63 120 0.06 0.81 0.63 144 0.07 0.87 0.60 168 0.05 0.90 0.57 192 0.07 0.93 0.57 216 0.06 1.01 0.53 240 0.03 1.04 0.55 264 -0.01 1.05 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.60 3.34 3.21 48 -0.69 -0.62 3.54 3.48 72 -0.70 -0.65 3.71 3.62 96 -0.58 3.79 120 -0.63 3.91 144 -0.71 4.10 168 -0.73 4.34 192 -0.73 4.65 216 -0.70 4.87 240 -0.76 5.03 264 -0.73 5.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 57 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.06 -0.94 3.72 3.59 48 -1.25 -1.07 4.01 3.85 72 -1.37 -1.11 4.28 4.13 96 -1.18 4.41 120 -1.15 4.69 144 -1.13 4.98 168 -1.18 5.36 192 -1.22 5.76 216 -1.21 6.10 240 -1.15 6.42 264 -1.10 6.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.00 -0.81 4.81 4.76 48 -1.14 -0.80 5.55 5.65 72 -1.22 -0.87 6.21 6.23 96 -0.83 6.86 120 -0.78 7.38 144 -0.73 8.04 168 -0.56 8.73 192 -0.46 9.74 216 -0.52 10.54 240 -0.50 10.99 264 -0.62 11.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.10 -1.68 9.74 9.28 0.97 0.97 48 -1.58 -1.63 12.53 12.17 0.98 0.98 72 -0.65 -1.09 16.74 16.42 0.97 0.97 96 -0.38 22.69 0.94 120 0.92 30.41 0.90 144 3.48 38.31 0.84 168 5.98 45.35 0.79 192 6.24 51.97 0.73 216 6.79 57.20 0.68 240 6.61 61.61 0.62 264 5.45 65.07 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 318 12 UTC = 315 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.30 -4.56 12.50 12.04 0.98 0.98 48 -4.25 -4.16 16.65 16.52 0.98 0.98 72 -3.16 -3.33 23.47 23.35 0.97 0.97 96 -2.73 32.89 0.95 120 -0.96 44.71 0.91 144 1.47 56.42 0.86 168 3.67 67.50 0.81 192 3.89 77.80 0.76 216 4.47 88.29 0.70 240 4.27 96.04 0.65 264 2.94 100.12 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 337 12 UTC = 332 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.51 -7.02 18.02 17.93 0.98 0.97 48 -6.94 -6.67 24.18 24.34 0.98 0.98 72 -6.16 -5.99 33.49 33.78 0.97 0.97 96 -5.85 46.37 0.95 120 -4.73 61.74 0.92 144 -2.91 78.08 0.88 168 -1.50 93.81 0.83 192 -1.20 108.66 0.77 216 -1.17 123.92 0.72 240 -1.21 135.77 0.67 264 -3.90 142.48 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 337 12 UTC = 333 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.74 1.82 1.88 0.90 0.90 48 -0.66 -0.71 2.02 2.09 0.92 0.92 72 -0.61 -0.65 2.29 2.34 0.92 0.91 96 -0.59 2.69 0.89 120 -0.48 3.11 0.86 144 -0.40 3.61 0.81 168 -0.40 4.11 0.76 192 -0.37 4.61 0.69 216 -0.32 4.97 0.64 240 -0.27 5.20 0.61 264 -0.26 5.42 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 388 12 UTC = 383 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.04 0.94 0.95 0.93 0.93 48 -0.08 -0.05 1.18 1.20 0.94 0.94 72 -0.09 -0.04 1.52 1.53 0.93 0.93 96 -0.08 1.92 0.90 120 -0.11 2.37 0.86 144 -0.12 2.84 0.81 168 -0.14 3.22 0.75 192 -0.15 3.60 0.69 216 -0.14 3.92 0.65 240 -0.14 4.20 0.61 264 -0.18 4.35 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 415 12 UTC = 410 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.24 1.35 1.34 0.91 0.91 48 0.29 0.28 1.70 1.68 0.90 0.90 72 0.31 0.31 2.07 2.07 0.87 0.87 96 0.34 2.44 0.83 120 0.34 2.86 0.77 144 0.28 3.26 0.71 168 0.19 3.55 0.66 192 0.14 3.80 0.61 216 0.10 3.98 0.57 240 0.06 4.03 0.56 264 -0.03 4.12 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 411 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.75 3.93 3.94 48 -0.80 -0.75 4.54 4.53 72 -0.82 -0.78 5.26 5.28 96 -0.84 6.16 120 -0.86 7.15 144 -0.95 8.11 168 -0.95 8.91 192 -0.88 9.49 216 -0.86 9.97 240 -0.88 10.30 264 -0.91 10.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 369 12 UTC = 365 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.59 4.31 4.31 48 -0.71 -0.69 5.45 5.46 72 -0.71 -0.70 6.94 6.88 96 -0.76 8.40 120 -0.83 10.13 144 -0.89 11.71 168 -0.86 13.10 192 -0.88 14.27 216 -0.84 15.21 240 -0.90 15.84 264 -0.85 16.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 399 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.61 5.85 5.73 48 -0.82 -0.83 7.54 7.59 72 -0.95 -0.91 9.60 9.66 96 -0.98 11.95 120 -1.05 14.46 144 -1.11 16.75 168 -1.08 19.10 192 -1.16 21.01 216 -1.06 22.54 240 -1.06 23.50 264 -0.97 24.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 395 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.51 8.77 11.27 0.97 0.97 48 -0.12 0.64 12.52 14.42 0.97 0.97 72 -1.44 0.22 17.95 20.20 0.96 0.96 96 -1.19 27.51 0.92 120 -1.66 34.04 0.88 144 -1.10 43.96 0.83 168 0.47 52.03 0.74 192 -0.56 56.38 0.68 216 0.22 62.86 0.65 240 0.03 69.62 0.53 264 -0.62 72.35 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.37 -6.48 12.41 13.51 0.98 0.98 48 -7.06 -6.50 17.74 19.03 0.98 0.98 72 -8.29 -6.89 26.31 27.62 0.96 0.96 96 -7.80 38.32 0.93 120 -8.51 50.03 0.88 144 -5.70 63.56 0.83 168 -4.59 75.25 0.77 192 -5.64 82.12 0.74 216 -5.37 88.70 0.70 240 -5.60 100.67 0.60 264 -5.04 106.84 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.04 -9.91 17.49 19.25 0.98 0.98 48 -9.44 -9.91 24.33 26.72 0.98 0.98 72 -9.33 -10.22 35.09 38.09 0.96 0.97 96 -9.88 50.37 0.94 120 -11.47 68.78 0.89 144 -6.58 87.76 0.85 168 -3.19 106.08 0.77 192 -4.18 112.90 0.76 216 -4.80 119.13 0.73 240 -4.34 140.84 0.63 264 -4.94 144.60 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.80 1.63 1.78 0.87 0.87 48 -0.72 -0.78 1.77 1.91 0.90 0.90 72 -0.68 -0.76 2.01 2.20 0.88 0.89 96 -0.79 2.56 0.87 120 -0.81 2.99 0.79 144 -0.78 3.43 0.76 168 -0.91 3.96 0.68 192 -0.92 4.24 0.65 216 -0.85 4.31 0.64 240 -0.89 4.47 0.62 264 -0.71 4.84 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.14 0.96 1.06 0.93 0.92 48 -0.18 -0.19 1.22 1.30 0.93 0.92 72 -0.16 -0.22 1.56 1.65 0.91 0.91 96 -0.14 1.99 0.89 120 -0.22 2.50 0.82 144 0.04 3.06 0.76 168 0.11 3.45 0.67 192 0.03 3.46 0.67 216 0.01 3.63 0.64 240 0.05 4.05 0.56 264 0.07 4.26 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.37 1.29 1.31 0.89 0.88 48 0.47 0.42 1.62 1.62 0.88 0.88 72 0.49 0.49 1.95 1.92 0.86 0.87 96 0.50 2.31 0.83 120 0.58 2.64 0.78 144 0.45 3.12 0.71 168 0.42 3.27 0.69 192 0.55 3.46 0.67 216 0.47 3.61 0.64 240 0.57 3.65 0.62 264 0.47 3.83 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.56 4.46 4.39 48 -0.54 -0.61 4.95 5.00 72 -0.60 -0.76 5.82 5.94 96 -0.72 6.82 120 -0.52 7.90 144 -0.50 8.81 168 -0.32 9.81 192 -0.39 10.14 216 -0.31 10.99 240 -0.36 11.50 264 -0.53 11.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.46 4.53 4.87 48 -0.42 -0.43 5.59 6.00 72 -0.28 -0.52 7.09 8.00 96 -0.40 9.52 120 -0.52 11.05 144 -0.16 12.66 168 -0.26 14.08 192 -0.23 14.89 216 -0.40 15.77 240 -0.34 17.22 264 -0.72 17.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.39 5.89 5.94 48 -0.46 -0.26 7.54 7.91 72 -0.20 -0.33 9.53 9.98 96 -0.32 12.30 120 -0.63 15.07 144 0.03 17.94 168 -0.34 20.23 192 -0.07 22.05 216 0.19 23.97 240 -0.14 26.25 264 -0.97 26.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------