VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JUNE 2013 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.83 0.83 0.99 0.99 20.4 20.9 48 -0.02 -0.02 1.41 1.38 0.97 0.97 30.8 31.3 72 0.00 -0.03 2.05 2.03 0.93 0.94 39.6 40.0 96 -0.03 2.76 0.88 48.3 120 0.03 3.58 0.80 55.5 144 0.07 4.41 0.69 62.5 168 0.13 5.08 0.60 67.7 192 0.18 5.62 0.52 72.0 216 0.24 6.07 0.44 74.8 240 0.33 6.50 0.35 77.9 264 0.42 6.74 0.30 80.0 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.40 6.60 6.60 1.00 1.00 13.1 13.2 48 -0.09 -0.16 13.22 13.25 0.98 0.98 23.1 23.2 72 0.38 0.15 21.44 21.42 0.96 0.96 32.7 32.7 96 0.38 30.81 0.91 41.5 120 0.90 41.28 0.83 49.2 144 1.39 51.41 0.73 56.1 168 1.88 60.63 0.63 62.2 192 2.26 69.46 0.52 67.7 216 2.68 76.10 0.43 71.6 240 3.29 81.97 0.34 75.3 264 3.58 84.92 0.29 77.6 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -0.88 9.26 9.48 1.00 1.00 11.8 11.9 48 -1.67 -1.57 18.85 18.97 0.98 0.98 20.8 20.9 72 -2.34 -2.43 30.54 30.67 0.96 0.96 29.9 30.1 96 -3.21 43.83 0.91 38.6 120 -3.65 57.15 0.85 45.6 144 -3.78 72.16 0.75 52.3 168 -3.81 86.01 0.65 58.2 192 -4.01 99.04 0.54 63.5 216 -4.23 108.33 0.45 67.2 240 -4.24 116.41 0.37 70.5 264 -5.10 120.89 0.31 72.8 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 0.48 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.85 0.96 0.96 72 -0.03 -0.02 1.22 1.23 0.91 0.91 96 -0.06 1.62 0.85 120 -0.09 1.98 0.77 144 -0.10 2.37 0.67 168 -0.13 2.70 0.57 192 -0.16 3.01 0.47 216 -0.18 3.26 0.38 240 -0.20 3.41 0.31 264 -0.25 3.49 0.27 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.69 0.69 0.98 0.98 48 -0.05 -0.04 1.17 1.17 0.94 0.94 72 -0.08 -0.07 1.64 1.64 0.87 0.87 96 -0.10 2.06 0.79 120 -0.12 2.45 0.70 144 -0.14 2.81 0.60 168 -0.15 3.08 0.52 192 -0.18 3.32 0.44 216 -0.19 3.56 0.35 240 -0.24 3.73 0.29 264 -0.29 3.85 0.24 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.10 2.18 2.18 48 -0.26 -0.23 3.78 3.81 72 -0.37 -0.35 5.33 5.33 96 -0.44 6.81 120 -0.50 8.21 144 -0.52 9.50 168 -0.55 10.63 192 -0.56 11.68 216 -0.60 12.43 240 -0.58 13.12 264 -0.58 13.56 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.26 3.52 3.52 48 -0.42 -0.45 6.01 6.03 72 -0.58 -0.62 8.53 8.61 96 -0.69 11.01 120 -0.72 13.08 144 -0.76 15.23 168 -0.76 17.03 192 -0.79 18.68 216 -0.81 19.86 240 -0.85 20.82 264 -0.89 21.61 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.74 2.94 2.82 0.97 0.98 22.3 22.1 48 -0.86 -0.91 4.43 4.29 0.94 0.95 29.7 29.7 72 -0.99 -0.99 5.46 5.68 0.90 0.91 34.2 34.3 96 -1.11 6.76 0.86 37.8 120 -1.31 7.67 0.82 40.7 144 -1.58 8.48 0.79 43.3 168 -1.61 9.51 0.74 45.4 192 -1.64 10.94 0.65 48.1 216 -1.28 12.02 0.59 49.9 240 -0.85 12.86 0.54 51.5 264 -0.80 13.06 0.53 53.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.29 4.32 4.50 0.98 0.98 21.4 21.5 48 -1.36 -1.23 6.76 7.02 0.96 0.95 30.0 30.0 72 -2.53 -2.30 9.08 9.17 0.92 0.92 35.6 35.6 96 -3.50 11.27 0.88 40.0 120 -4.70 13.44 0.83 44.3 144 -5.70 15.75 0.77 48.4 168 -6.60 17.89 0.71 51.5 192 -7.42 20.00 0.63 54.4 216 -7.96 21.90 0.57 57.1 240 -8.06 23.26 0.52 59.3 264 -8.27 24.74 0.45 61.1 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.39 0.40 0.96 0.96 48 0.05 0.04 0.61 0.61 0.91 0.90 72 0.07 0.06 0.75 0.76 0.86 0.85 96 0.08 0.87 0.80 120 0.09 0.97 0.75 144 0.06 1.06 0.70 168 0.03 1.18 0.63 192 0.00 1.32 0.55 216 -0.03 1.41 0.48 240 -0.05 1.48 0.44 264 -0.06 1.56 0.39 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.03 0.34 0.33 0.93 0.94 48 -0.02 -0.03 0.51 0.49 0.84 0.85 72 -0.01 -0.02 0.62 0.60 0.77 0.77 96 -0.02 0.69 0.70 120 -0.03 0.76 0.63 144 -0.03 0.82 0.57 168 -0.04 0.87 0.51 192 -0.05 0.93 0.45 216 -0.06 0.98 0.39 240 -0.07 1.04 0.33 264 -0.08 1.08 0.28 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.01 1.50 1.47 48 -0.08 -0.02 2.25 2.23 72 -0.16 -0.12 2.74 2.71 96 -0.24 3.10 120 -0.28 3.43 144 -0.28 3.72 168 -0.25 4.00 192 -0.26 4.32 216 -0.27 4.56 240 -0.31 4.76 264 -0.37 4.96 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.41 3.15 3.15 48 -0.58 -0.59 4.71 4.72 72 -0.64 -0.66 5.82 5.82 96 -0.72 6.70 120 -0.72 7.61 144 -0.76 8.47 168 -0.72 9.19 192 -0.62 9.86 216 -0.51 10.58 240 -0.45 11.28 264 -0.44 11.82 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.10 1.11 1.06 0.99 0.99 14.1 13.7 48 0.12 0.13 2.24 2.19 0.98 0.98 25.3 25.0 72 0.10 0.12 3.56 3.49 0.94 0.94 35.6 35.0 96 0.09 4.95 0.89 43.9 120 0.03 6.52 0.80 51.8 144 -0.01 8.00 0.71 58.5 168 -0.06 9.42 0.59 64.4 192 -0.11 10.78 0.47 69.2 216 -0.19 11.53 0.38 71.7 240 -0.34 12.37 0.30 73.7 264 -0.46 12.92 0.23 76.2 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.66 9.87 9.69 1.00 1.00 11.0 10.9 48 -1.35 -1.33 21.09 20.53 0.98 0.98 20.5 20.2 72 -1.98 -1.87 34.48 33.92 0.96 0.96 29.6 29.1 96 -2.38 49.63 0.91 37.6 120 -3.15 65.69 0.84 45.1 144 -3.70 81.49 0.76 51.6 168 -4.31 98.25 0.65 57.4 192 -4.68 115.88 0.52 62.7 216 -5.31 126.45 0.42 65.8 240 -6.27 135.65 0.34 68.5 264 -7.21 144.06 0.26 70.9 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.22 12.02 12.16 1.00 1.00 8.6 8.8 48 -0.09 0.14 25.68 25.08 0.99 0.99 15.9 15.6 72 -0.57 -0.18 42.96 42.22 0.96 0.96 23.4 23.1 96 -1.13 62.76 0.92 30.7 120 -1.90 83.00 0.86 37.7 144 -1.57 104.12 0.77 43.9 168 -0.79 126.42 0.66 49.4 192 0.12 150.14 0.53 54.6 216 0.91 164.41 0.44 57.9 240 0.79 175.65 0.37 60.5 264 -0.08 189.18 0.26 63.3 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.56 0.57 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.03 1.10 1.07 0.96 0.97 72 -0.07 -0.06 1.68 1.65 0.92 0.92 96 -0.09 2.25 0.85 120 -0.10 2.80 0.76 144 -0.10 3.31 0.67 168 -0.08 3.82 0.56 192 -0.07 4.33 0.45 216 -0.03 4.65 0.37 240 -0.02 4.89 0.29 264 -0.02 5.17 0.20 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.10 0.65 0.65 0.98 0.98 48 0.17 0.18 1.18 1.16 0.94 0.94 72 0.21 0.23 1.71 1.68 0.87 0.88 96 0.24 2.18 0.79 120 0.27 2.64 0.69 144 0.35 3.03 0.59 168 0.45 3.36 0.50 192 0.52 3.65 0.41 216 0.58 3.88 0.34 240 0.65 4.14 0.25 264 0.62 4.29 0.19 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 2.69 2.66 48 0.00 0.03 5.12 5.05 72 -0.04 -0.01 7.43 7.33 96 -0.07 9.64 120 -0.08 11.82 144 0.00 13.80 168 0.15 15.78 192 0.22 17.50 216 0.25 18.40 240 0.24 19.31 264 0.15 20.14 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.08 3.51 3.59 48 -0.22 -0.18 6.42 6.35 72 -0.31 -0.26 9.45 9.42 96 -0.40 12.56 120 -0.45 15.70 144 -0.32 18.59 168 -0.14 21.44 192 -0.07 24.00 216 -0.11 25.61 240 -0.09 27.06 264 -0.15 28.62 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.10 -2.28 9.48 8.86 0.95 0.96 48 -3.34 -2.09 12.60 12.13 0.96 0.96 72 -3.65 -3.01 16.08 16.05 0.94 0.95 96 -5.33 21.48 0.93 120 -4.98 26.09 0.89 144 -5.09 31.51 0.85 168 -4.10 35.83 0.82 192 -2.81 39.50 0.77 216 -0.30 45.10 0.66 240 3.47 51.21 0.55 264 8.13 52.42 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.16 -5.74 12.37 11.06 0.97 0.97 48 -6.07 -5.10 16.61 15.85 0.97 0.97 72 -5.29 -4.69 22.45 21.70 0.95 0.96 96 -6.11 28.97 0.93 120 -5.56 36.29 0.89 144 -4.58 44.87 0.84 168 -4.24 51.10 0.80 192 -5.57 59.69 0.74 216 -5.01 67.83 0.67 240 0.08 73.25 0.63 264 6.60 74.09 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.05 -7.32 16.41 15.28 0.97 0.97 48 -8.06 -6.75 24.02 23.07 0.97 0.97 72 -6.64 -6.24 34.28 32.49 0.95 0.95 96 -7.70 42.98 0.93 120 -8.08 52.42 0.90 144 -6.02 67.22 0.84 168 -7.85 77.53 0.80 192 -10.14 92.55 0.75 216 -10.54 102.33 0.70 240 -4.66 110.65 0.66 264 1.54 111.81 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.74 1.57 1.79 0.85 0.86 48 -0.43 -0.67 1.72 1.94 0.90 0.90 72 -0.32 -0.58 1.92 2.12 0.89 0.90 96 -0.55 2.37 0.87 120 -0.54 2.61 0.85 144 -0.47 3.09 0.78 168 -0.47 3.36 0.76 192 -0.57 3.77 0.70 216 -0.59 4.05 0.62 240 -0.47 4.34 0.56 264 -0.35 4.43 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.03 0.84 0.88 0.89 0.88 48 0.00 0.06 1.08 1.10 0.90 0.90 72 0.05 0.10 1.35 1.34 0.89 0.89 96 0.14 1.65 0.86 120 0.10 1.86 0.83 144 0.17 2.22 0.78 168 0.08 2.44 0.76 192 -0.07 2.78 0.71 216 -0.20 3.00 0.67 240 -0.12 3.12 0.65 264 -0.07 3.13 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.29 1.18 1.14 0.88 0.88 48 0.31 0.37 1.45 1.43 0.88 0.88 72 0.39 0.38 1.77 1.67 0.86 0.87 96 0.38 1.92 0.84 120 0.41 2.14 0.81 144 0.45 2.44 0.78 168 0.48 2.61 0.76 192 0.53 2.85 0.70 216 0.57 3.02 0.65 240 0.45 3.23 0.57 264 0.35 3.26 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -1.03 3.78 4.05 48 -0.72 -1.12 4.38 4.65 72 -0.60 -1.16 5.06 5.33 96 -1.12 6.10 120 -1.12 6.62 144 -0.97 7.49 168 -0.96 8.08 192 -1.15 8.42 216 -1.15 9.08 240 -1.00 9.70 264 -0.93 10.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.65 4.32 4.19 48 -0.93 -0.78 5.17 5.15 72 -0.84 -0.85 6.20 6.27 96 -0.69 7.31 120 -0.82 8.42 144 -0.68 9.81 168 -0.80 10.74 192 -0.58 11.92 216 -0.69 13.21 240 -0.63 14.09 264 -0.70 14.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.98 6.44 6.08 48 -1.06 -1.30 8.35 8.11 72 -1.24 -1.40 10.44 10.34 96 -1.36 12.26 120 -1.46 13.85 144 -1.52 16.17 168 -1.47 17.89 192 -1.23 19.92 216 -1.13 22.04 240 -0.99 23.52 264 -1.41 24.36 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.78 -4.69 9.29 8.45 0.96 0.96 48 -5.33 -6.40 11.23 11.41 0.97 0.97 72 -2.48 -4.61 13.76 13.64 0.96 0.96 96 -0.65 18.46 0.93 120 1.79 24.53 0.89 144 0.53 31.89 0.81 168 0.32 40.98 0.72 192 0.55 48.11 0.68 216 0.59 49.12 0.66 240 2.21 46.61 0.68 264 2.87 48.26 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.44 -7.68 12.94 11.69 0.98 0.98 48 -8.32 -9.33 15.92 16.08 0.98 0.98 72 -4.49 -6.77 21.86 21.43 0.95 0.95 96 -1.76 30.46 0.93 120 -0.05 40.01 0.90 144 -1.93 50.18 0.86 168 -0.08 65.48 0.78 192 -1.14 80.96 0.70 216 -4.68 84.75 0.68 240 -0.23 82.48 0.67 264 5.78 83.97 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.72 -8.54 16.42 15.68 0.98 0.97 48 -9.67 -10.31 21.24 21.33 0.98 0.98 72 -5.86 -8.14 31.51 31.41 0.96 0.96 96 -3.08 45.82 0.93 120 -1.82 58.44 0.91 144 -3.39 70.30 0.87 168 -0.03 92.79 0.79 192 -1.92 116.50 0.72 216 -9.23 124.86 0.69 240 -4.92 127.01 0.67 264 5.51 128.07 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.09 1.27 1.23 0.89 0.87 48 -0.28 -0.10 1.43 1.39 0.92 0.91 72 -0.22 -0.04 1.70 1.63 0.91 0.91 96 0.04 1.99 0.88 120 0.05 2.37 0.85 144 -0.01 2.72 0.82 168 0.06 3.22 0.75 192 -0.05 3.95 0.66 216 -0.11 4.37 0.57 240 -0.01 4.34 0.57 264 0.45 4.42 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.05 0.80 0.75 0.91 0.91 48 -0.02 -0.02 1.00 0.96 0.93 0.93 72 0.01 0.00 1.30 1.27 0.90 0.91 96 0.01 1.69 0.87 120 -0.06 2.04 0.84 144 -0.08 2.34 0.80 168 0.02 2.82 0.71 192 -0.05 3.21 0.66 216 -0.30 3.43 0.64 240 -0.10 3.44 0.62 264 0.17 3.49 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.46 0.50 1.34 1.30 0.89 0.88 48 0.51 0.58 1.67 1.69 0.88 0.86 72 0.48 0.57 2.04 2.00 0.84 0.83 96 0.59 2.40 0.77 120 0.68 2.78 0.72 144 0.79 3.22 0.64 168 0.80 3.53 0.59 192 0.99 3.60 0.59 216 0.99 3.90 0.57 240 0.73 3.73 0.58 264 0.64 3.75 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.51 3.66 3.54 48 -0.69 -0.56 4.13 4.01 72 -0.77 -0.62 4.73 4.51 96 -0.68 5.39 120 -0.82 6.12 144 -0.93 7.04 168 -0.90 7.98 192 -0.85 8.48 216 -1.13 8.63 240 -0.87 8.67 264 -0.71 8.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.57 3.79 3.77 48 -0.50 -0.74 4.76 4.74 72 -0.68 -0.83 6.21 6.05 96 -0.83 7.94 120 -0.85 9.47 144 -0.71 10.63 168 -0.76 12.78 192 -0.67 14.31 216 -0.74 14.81 240 -1.10 14.91 264 -0.93 14.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.51 5.49 5.03 48 -0.94 -0.74 7.13 6.70 72 -1.16 -0.96 9.75 9.19 96 -1.26 12.20 120 -1.05 14.45 144 -0.91 16.63 168 -1.09 19.94 192 -0.87 22.36 216 -0.99 23.19 240 -1.55 23.89 264 -1.68 22.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.73 10.61 9.56 0.94 0.92 48 0.89 0.30 14.24 12.83 0.94 0.93 72 1.21 1.93 18.74 16.82 0.93 0.92 96 0.43 20.82 0.90 120 -1.42 25.00 0.87 144 -0.87 28.48 0.82 168 -0.58 32.02 0.77 192 -0.30 35.98 0.69 216 -0.36 36.99 0.70 240 0.60 38.04 0.69 264 -0.69 40.64 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.76 -1.24 11.27 11.37 0.93 0.93 48 0.93 1.96 15.72 15.87 0.94 0.94 72 1.92 4.92 21.23 21.53 0.93 0.93 96 4.08 26.20 0.92 120 1.37 31.37 0.90 144 0.84 37.61 0.87 168 0.43 40.85 0.84 192 0.03 45.73 0.80 216 -0.01 47.56 0.80 240 1.52 53.89 0.74 264 0.61 57.82 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 97 12 UTC = 97 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.71 -8.93 19.77 20.26 0.95 0.93 48 -8.56 -7.45 26.20 26.03 0.95 0.95 72 -8.48 -4.97 33.69 33.12 0.95 0.94 96 -6.68 42.39 0.92 120 -11.89 51.32 0.92 144 -14.44 64.01 0.89 168 -15.52 72.02 0.86 192 -16.90 80.91 0.83 216 -16.02 85.19 0.81 240 -14.05 95.30 0.75 264 -15.28 105.02 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 98 12 UTC = 98 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.52 1.90 1.84 0.84 0.84 48 -0.44 -0.34 2.12 2.07 0.87 0.87 72 -0.31 -0.18 2.38 2.33 0.87 0.87 96 -0.09 2.64 0.86 120 -0.05 3.04 0.82 144 -0.06 3.37 0.79 168 -0.09 3.76 0.74 192 -0.07 4.00 0.69 216 0.04 4.18 0.67 240 0.15 4.48 0.64 264 0.21 4.69 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 127 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.11 1.02 1.04 0.87 0.86 48 -0.15 -0.13 1.24 1.27 0.90 0.89 72 -0.23 -0.16 1.48 1.48 0.90 0.90 96 -0.26 1.79 0.88 120 -0.35 2.09 0.86 144 -0.44 2.51 0.82 168 -0.50 2.86 0.77 192 -0.54 3.08 0.72 216 -0.51 3.26 0.69 240 -0.47 3.48 0.66 264 -0.46 3.65 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 145 12 UTC = 145 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.16 1.42 1.39 0.87 0.86 48 -0.25 -0.26 1.77 1.71 0.87 0.87 72 -0.26 -0.26 2.06 2.00 0.86 0.86 96 -0.25 2.31 0.84 120 -0.33 2.57 0.83 144 -0.44 2.90 0.79 168 -0.51 3.11 0.78 192 -0.58 3.34 0.74 216 -0.60 3.53 0.72 240 -0.74 3.67 0.70 264 -0.86 3.93 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 144 12 UTC = 143 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.94 -0.70 3.90 3.85 48 -1.00 -0.67 4.53 4.51 72 -1.05 -0.62 5.28 5.25 96 -0.63 5.94 120 -0.69 6.42 144 -0.68 6.98 168 -0.61 7.47 192 -0.57 7.78 216 -0.64 7.84 240 -0.77 8.24 264 -0.78 8.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 122 12 UTC = 121 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.68 4.24 4.37 48 -0.89 -0.78 5.40 5.47 72 -0.98 -0.83 6.65 6.58 96 -0.87 7.59 120 -0.78 8.34 144 -0.75 9.42 168 -0.60 10.08 192 -0.50 10.70 216 -0.49 10.94 240 -0.39 12.08 264 -0.41 12.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.60 5.91 5.99 48 -0.81 -0.85 8.09 8.13 72 -1.04 -1.12 10.11 10.28 96 -1.09 12.09 120 -0.93 13.67 144 -0.82 15.40 168 -0.79 16.56 192 -0.59 17.85 216 -0.56 18.76 240 -0.62 20.57 264 -0.84 21.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.12 -3.53 7.52 8.26 0.98 0.98 48 -1.74 -2.15 10.24 11.47 0.98 0.98 72 -0.95 -0.69 14.77 17.01 0.97 0.97 96 1.28 26.25 0.93 120 3.80 33.84 0.89 144 4.35 45.51 0.78 168 2.03 52.31 0.67 192 2.53 58.97 0.63 216 2.21 64.15 0.65 240 -0.09 65.41 0.64 264 -4.34 69.59 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.16 -8.92 11.71 12.70 0.98 0.98 48 -8.12 -8.57 15.60 16.89 0.98 0.98 72 -9.58 -8.98 21.77 23.65 0.97 0.97 96 -8.36 35.57 0.91 120 -5.32 44.71 0.83 144 -7.70 63.84 0.68 168 -8.82 73.01 0.58 192 -8.60 77.82 0.63 216 -5.82 88.55 0.60 240 -5.96 87.40 0.64 264 -11.12 92.68 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.70 -10.79 14.54 15.84 0.98 0.98 48 -8.89 -9.86 19.78 21.22 0.98 0.98 72 -11.24 -11.42 27.50 30.39 0.97 0.96 96 -12.42 43.60 0.90 120 -10.08 54.95 0.83 144 -11.93 78.25 0.72 168 -11.65 91.04 0.64 192 -10.40 97.44 0.66 216 -3.84 111.15 0.59 240 -1.96 112.35 0.64 264 -5.40 115.65 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.25 1.21 1.23 0.76 0.78 48 -0.33 -0.30 1.35 1.35 0.79 0.81 72 -0.38 -0.35 1.49 1.57 0.81 0.82 96 -0.40 1.83 0.81 120 -0.41 2.12 0.78 144 -0.37 2.51 0.62 168 -0.38 2.61 0.56 192 -0.40 2.92 0.48 216 -0.35 3.10 0.54 240 -0.25 3.26 0.53 264 -0.37 3.25 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.18 0.99 0.93 0.87 0.89 48 -0.21 -0.22 1.15 1.22 0.89 0.89 72 -0.33 -0.34 1.32 1.46 0.90 0.88 96 -0.43 1.74 0.85 120 -0.37 2.01 0.82 144 -0.53 2.53 0.76 168 -0.41 2.75 0.69 192 -0.45 2.92 0.68 216 -0.26 3.19 0.65 240 -0.01 3.29 0.64 264 -0.04 3.36 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.43 0.48 1.24 1.15 0.86 0.87 48 0.56 0.59 1.52 1.49 0.89 0.88 72 0.55 0.63 1.72 1.70 0.88 0.87 96 0.56 2.06 0.84 120 0.43 2.29 0.76 144 0.66 2.80 0.67 168 0.77 3.08 0.64 192 0.70 3.24 0.64 216 0.93 3.63 0.59 240 0.76 3.47 0.56 264 1.17 3.96 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.30 3.54 3.57 48 -0.31 -0.32 4.04 4.18 72 -0.40 -0.39 4.78 4.94 96 -0.47 6.02 120 -0.44 7.38 144 -0.36 8.65 168 -0.07 9.83 192 -0.08 10.29 216 -0.32 10.54 240 -0.28 10.66 264 0.15 11.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.35 4.39 4.25 48 -0.61 -0.38 5.20 5.19 72 -0.58 -0.44 6.27 6.40 96 -0.55 7.73 120 -0.72 9.61 144 -0.69 10.90 168 0.42 12.99 192 0.51 13.83 216 0.17 13.87 240 0.36 14.68 264 0.41 15.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.63 5.49 5.45 48 -1.25 -0.79 6.86 6.92 72 -1.34 -0.80 8.72 8.72 96 -1.02 10.74 120 -1.55 12.90 144 -1.09 15.39 168 -0.04 17.78 192 0.11 19.46 216 -0.06 20.22 240 0.26 21.74 264 0.18 23.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.35 -4.28 9.84 9.98 0.74 0.66 48 -3.04 -4.61 10.63 10.34 0.82 0.77 72 -2.83 -5.24 11.13 10.84 0.83 0.77 96 -5.90 11.63 0.73 120 -6.38 12.10 0.77 144 -7.24 13.02 0.76 168 -7.40 13.53 0.74 192 -8.02 14.91 0.67 216 -7.54 15.30 0.68 240 -6.41 15.47 0.68 264 -5.91 15.08 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.21 -7.46 12.47 12.46 0.65 0.59 48 -6.34 -7.72 13.13 12.94 0.77 0.72 72 -7.06 -8.71 13.90 13.81 0.78 0.75 96 -10.02 14.91 0.74 120 -11.16 15.91 0.73 144 -12.23 17.03 0.73 168 -12.94 18.01 0.69 192 -13.74 19.49 0.63 216 -13.51 19.93 0.60 240 -13.09 20.66 0.56 264 -12.83 20.77 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.05 -11.68 15.87 17.08 0.65 0.62 48 -10.72 -12.03 16.91 17.81 0.77 0.77 72 -11.75 -13.42 18.27 19.44 0.78 0.78 96 -14.82 21.10 0.75 120 -16.21 22.49 0.75 144 -17.19 24.02 0.74 168 -18.31 25.55 0.72 192 -19.50 27.56 0.68 216 -19.76 28.71 0.64 240 -19.77 30.17 0.57 264 -19.67 30.70 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.21 1.04 1.03 0.43 0.41 48 -0.17 -0.21 1.10 1.06 0.49 0.50 72 -0.19 -0.21 1.13 1.08 0.49 0.49 96 -0.21 1.08 0.51 120 -0.22 1.11 0.53 144 -0.25 1.14 0.51 168 -0.30 1.22 0.50 192 -0.34 1.29 0.48 216 -0.36 1.33 0.47 240 -0.40 1.44 0.43 264 -0.42 1.47 0.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.21 0.89 0.88 0.51 0.56 48 -0.34 -0.23 0.98 0.93 0.60 0.63 72 -0.37 -0.25 1.03 0.95 0.61 0.63 96 -0.26 1.00 0.62 120 -0.29 1.05 0.59 144 -0.28 1.08 0.59 168 -0.31 1.13 0.58 192 -0.30 1.18 0.54 216 -0.32 1.27 0.50 240 -0.34 1.37 0.43 264 -0.34 1.37 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.05 0.68 0.60 0.58 0.65 48 0.14 0.03 0.75 0.68 0.63 0.68 72 0.09 0.03 0.80 0.74 0.63 0.67 96 0.05 0.76 0.69 120 0.03 0.79 0.69 144 0.02 0.83 0.68 168 0.00 0.90 0.67 192 -0.02 0.93 0.63 216 -0.04 0.96 0.61 240 -0.07 0.98 0.60 264 -0.08 1.03 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.58 3.35 3.28 48 -0.76 -0.59 3.71 3.58 72 -0.83 -0.67 3.91 3.77 96 -0.74 3.98 120 -0.71 4.21 144 -0.72 4.48 168 -0.68 4.78 192 -0.65 5.04 216 -0.70 5.19 240 -0.77 5.40 264 -0.82 5.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.04 -0.83 4.00 3.76 48 -1.21 -0.99 4.36 4.09 72 -1.35 -1.13 4.64 4.42 96 -1.15 4.70 120 -1.14 5.07 144 -1.10 5.39 168 -1.10 5.85 192 -1.15 6.17 216 -1.02 6.55 240 -0.86 6.96 264 -0.73 7.20 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.07 -0.92 4.97 4.86 48 -1.15 -0.95 5.81 5.78 72 -1.13 -0.81 6.61 6.65 96 -0.85 7.35 120 -0.77 8.13 144 -0.66 8.76 168 -0.49 9.31 192 -0.42 9.79 216 -0.30 10.11 240 -0.22 10.90 264 -0.20 11.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.38 -3.07 9.94 9.55 0.96 0.96 48 -2.77 -3.15 13.01 12.67 0.96 0.96 72 -1.96 -2.45 16.87 16.45 0.95 0.95 96 -2.34 21.63 0.93 120 -2.26 27.46 0.89 144 -2.20 33.72 0.84 168 -2.05 39.02 0.80 192 -1.50 44.39 0.74 216 -0.80 47.56 0.70 240 1.08 50.38 0.67 264 2.11 51.69 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 328 12 UTC = 327 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.88 -5.36 12.64 12.30 0.97 0.97 48 -4.68 -4.86 16.83 16.91 0.97 0.97 72 -3.42 -3.48 22.95 22.96 0.96 0.96 96 -3.00 30.63 0.93 120 -3.28 39.33 0.90 144 -3.31 48.85 0.86 168 -3.31 57.62 0.82 192 -3.90 67.28 0.76 216 -4.48 73.06 0.72 240 -2.09 77.69 0.69 264 0.36 79.62 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 345 12 UTC = 343 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.75 -8.27 18.37 18.02 0.97 0.97 48 -8.66 -8.69 24.92 24.49 0.97 0.97 72 -7.91 -7.84 34.15 33.57 0.96 0.96 96 -8.02 45.21 0.94 120 -9.23 56.97 0.91 144 -9.57 71.17 0.88 168 -10.08 84.86 0.84 192 -11.37 99.34 0.78 216 -12.69 108.19 0.74 240 -10.95 116.34 0.70 264 -8.33 120.52 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 346 12 UTC = 344 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.62 1.70 1.76 0.87 0.87 48 -0.55 -0.56 1.89 1.96 0.90 0.90 72 -0.48 -0.48 2.14 2.19 0.90 0.90 96 -0.42 2.51 0.88 120 -0.40 2.88 0.84 144 -0.41 3.30 0.80 168 -0.40 3.67 0.76 192 -0.42 4.09 0.70 216 -0.42 4.39 0.65 240 -0.36 4.60 0.62 264 -0.26 4.76 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 389 12 UTC = 384 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.03 0.93 0.94 0.90 0.90 48 -0.06 -0.04 1.15 1.17 0.92 0.92 72 -0.09 -0.06 1.44 1.43 0.91 0.91 96 -0.10 1.77 0.89 120 -0.16 2.10 0.86 144 -0.19 2.49 0.82 168 -0.22 2.84 0.77 192 -0.27 3.15 0.72 216 -0.35 3.37 0.68 240 -0.32 3.52 0.66 264 -0.29 3.62 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 416 12 UTC = 414 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.18 1.38 1.35 0.89 0.89 48 0.16 0.18 1.72 1.68 0.89 0.89 72 0.18 0.19 2.09 2.03 0.87 0.87 96 0.22 2.37 0.84 120 0.22 2.68 0.81 144 0.22 3.05 0.77 168 0.21 3.31 0.74 192 0.22 3.54 0.71 216 0.23 3.73 0.68 240 0.13 3.84 0.66 264 0.03 3.97 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 413 12 UTC = 409 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.75 3.73 3.79 48 -0.86 -0.80 4.32 4.39 72 -0.89 -0.83 5.02 5.05 96 -0.85 5.81 120 -0.86 6.45 144 -0.84 7.25 168 -0.83 7.83 192 -0.85 8.27 216 -0.93 8.51 240 -0.91 8.88 264 -0.86 9.16 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 371 12 UTC = 368 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.65 4.06 4.09 48 -0.77 -0.76 5.11 5.15 72 -0.85 -0.85 6.38 6.38 96 -0.88 7.62 120 -0.89 8.82 144 -0.82 10.11 168 -0.81 11.20 192 -0.71 12.26 216 -0.78 12.95 240 -0.75 13.65 264 -0.71 13.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 401 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.72 5.68 5.57 48 -0.93 -0.96 7.60 7.54 72 -1.12 -1.20 9.82 9.81 96 -1.27 11.93 120 -1.19 13.92 144 -1.18 15.99 168 -1.14 17.88 192 -0.98 19.63 216 -1.05 20.84 240 -1.12 22.05 264 -1.32 22.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 399 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.16 8.95 10.82 0.98 0.97 48 0.29 0.14 13.14 14.21 0.97 0.97 72 -0.33 -0.67 18.68 20.07 0.95 0.95 96 0.10 28.46 0.91 120 -1.63 35.87 0.85 144 -2.67 45.07 0.80 168 -2.40 52.44 0.73 192 -2.72 59.30 0.68 216 -1.40 64.10 0.68 240 -2.37 69.48 0.60 264 -0.60 71.00 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.55 -7.43 12.85 13.22 0.98 0.98 48 -7.45 -8.15 18.51 18.71 0.98 0.98 72 -9.30 -8.91 27.35 28.74 0.95 0.96 96 -8.46 40.66 0.92 120 -10.19 53.45 0.86 144 -13.77 65.26 0.81 168 -15.26 76.73 0.76 192 -16.33 87.53 0.70 216 -13.69 97.71 0.66 240 -13.51 104.64 0.61 264 -13.25 107.97 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.55 -10.84 17.93 18.54 0.98 0.98 48 -10.50 -10.93 25.35 25.48 0.98 0.98 72 -12.00 -11.61 35.53 39.46 0.96 0.96 96 -12.21 54.61 0.92 120 -14.62 71.17 0.88 144 -17.66 86.69 0.84 168 -19.62 103.60 0.78 192 -19.76 116.86 0.73 216 -14.39 135.07 0.67 240 -14.70 142.93 0.63 264 -17.06 151.94 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.81 1.69 1.75 0.87 0.86 48 -0.78 -0.85 1.82 1.87 0.89 0.89 72 -0.80 -0.81 2.03 2.07 0.87 0.87 96 -0.81 2.44 0.84 120 -0.85 3.00 0.77 144 -0.96 3.30 0.72 168 -1.00 3.81 0.66 192 -1.18 4.15 0.60 216 -1.20 4.33 0.60 240 -1.14 4.64 0.55 264 -1.33 4.89 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.14 1.00 1.03 0.92 0.92 48 -0.21 -0.17 1.23 1.29 0.93 0.92 72 -0.28 -0.19 1.51 1.69 0.91 0.90 96 -0.24 2.03 0.87 120 -0.24 2.47 0.82 144 -0.34 2.87 0.78 168 -0.46 3.28 0.74 192 -0.46 3.49 0.70 216 -0.36 3.95 0.65 240 -0.24 4.15 0.61 264 -0.40 4.43 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.38 1.31 1.31 0.89 0.87 48 0.46 0.46 1.59 1.53 0.89 0.88 72 0.54 0.49 1.87 1.78 0.87 0.85 96 0.46 2.11 0.82 120 0.48 2.50 0.75 144 0.59 2.69 0.73 168 0.67 2.95 0.68 192 0.68 3.21 0.64 216 0.72 3.37 0.62 240 0.47 3.39 0.60 264 0.44 3.65 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.52 4.49 4.50 48 -0.70 -0.58 5.01 4.97 72 -0.74 -0.59 5.71 5.70 96 -0.71 6.76 120 -0.58 7.87 144 -0.43 8.89 168 -0.23 10.00 192 0.01 10.77 216 -0.33 10.97 240 -0.34 11.21 264 -0.61 11.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.40 4.72 4.78 48 -0.56 -0.43 5.76 5.71 72 -0.45 -0.55 7.05 7.12 96 -0.57 8.59 120 -0.63 10.52 144 -0.46 11.96 168 0.01 14.12 192 0.17 15.29 216 0.16 15.96 240 0.10 16.77 264 -0.38 17.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.39 5.90 6.24 48 -0.53 -0.32 7.52 7.78 72 -0.61 -0.43 9.67 9.94 96 -0.60 12.48 120 -1.03 14.90 144 -0.49 17.43 168 0.09 19.96 192 0.22 22.39 216 0.29 24.01 240 -0.06 25.87 264 0.10 26.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 45 ---------------------------------------------------------