VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JULY 2013 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.01 0.78 0.78 0.99 0.99 20.7 21.1 48 -0.01 0.00 1.29 1.27 0.97 0.97 30.8 31.0 72 0.03 0.03 1.84 1.82 0.93 0.94 39.4 39.4 96 0.07 2.52 0.88 48.1 120 0.10 3.23 0.80 55.7 144 0.15 3.93 0.69 62.3 168 0.19 4.52 0.59 67.0 192 0.24 5.01 0.50 71.1 216 0.27 5.37 0.43 73.5 240 0.29 5.55 0.39 74.6 264 0.33 5.77 0.33 76.6 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.19 6.03 5.87 1.00 1.00 14.1 13.9 48 0.64 0.72 11.86 11.55 0.98 0.98 23.9 23.6 72 1.33 1.31 19.08 18.44 0.96 0.96 33.5 32.9 96 1.80 27.38 0.91 42.3 120 2.08 37.27 0.83 51.1 144 2.22 47.02 0.73 59.0 168 2.14 55.49 0.61 65.2 192 2.10 62.70 0.50 70.3 216 2.06 68.86 0.40 74.3 240 1.84 72.86 0.34 76.9 264 1.73 75.91 0.28 78.9 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 0.14 9.22 9.29 1.00 1.00 13.2 13.1 48 -0.10 0.09 18.20 18.09 0.98 0.98 23.0 22.9 72 -0.25 -0.15 28.87 28.25 0.95 0.96 32.4 32.1 96 -0.72 40.91 0.91 41.2 120 -1.60 56.11 0.82 49.7 144 -2.70 71.11 0.71 57.3 168 -3.68 83.15 0.59 63.3 192 -4.66 93.13 0.48 67.8 216 -5.58 101.61 0.39 71.3 240 -6.58 108.30 0.31 73.9 264 -7.45 112.53 0.26 75.9 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.04 0.46 0.46 0.98 0.98 48 0.05 0.04 0.80 0.79 0.95 0.95 72 0.04 0.03 1.12 1.10 0.89 0.90 96 0.00 1.44 0.82 120 -0.04 1.81 0.72 144 -0.08 2.16 0.59 168 -0.12 2.42 0.48 192 -0.15 2.61 0.39 216 -0.19 2.78 0.32 240 -0.23 2.92 0.26 264 -0.26 3.03 0.21 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.68 0.67 0.97 0.97 48 -0.01 -0.01 1.16 1.14 0.92 0.92 72 -0.03 -0.03 1.62 1.58 0.83 0.84 96 -0.05 2.00 0.73 120 -0.08 2.37 0.61 144 -0.11 2.70 0.49 168 -0.14 2.95 0.39 192 -0.17 3.12 0.32 216 -0.18 3.27 0.25 240 -0.20 3.34 0.22 264 -0.23 3.47 0.17 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.12 2.05 2.01 48 -0.25 -0.27 3.44 3.41 72 -0.36 -0.37 4.81 4.72 96 -0.44 6.11 120 -0.51 7.47 144 -0.58 8.72 168 -0.61 9.71 192 -0.64 10.56 216 -0.66 11.24 240 -0.71 11.64 264 -0.76 11.97 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.29 3.48 3.44 48 -0.47 -0.55 5.88 5.82 72 -0.67 -0.75 8.24 8.15 96 -0.91 10.49 120 -1.03 12.70 144 -1.13 14.74 168 -1.19 16.31 192 -1.21 17.60 216 -1.18 18.62 240 -1.18 19.42 264 -1.30 19.94 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.70 3.08 2.89 0.97 0.98 21.6 22.0 48 -0.96 -1.03 4.57 4.37 0.94 0.95 29.1 29.3 72 -1.01 -1.11 5.72 6.00 0.89 0.90 33.9 34.0 96 -1.10 7.27 0.86 37.5 120 -0.96 8.20 0.82 40.3 144 -0.73 9.33 0.75 43.4 168 -0.63 10.40 0.69 46.1 192 -0.71 11.56 0.62 48.7 216 -0.80 12.24 0.57 50.8 240 -0.93 13.14 0.49 52.6 264 -0.93 13.97 0.43 54.4 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.80 0.53 4.56 4.60 0.98 0.98 22.2 22.3 48 0.83 0.41 6.88 7.10 0.95 0.95 30.9 31.1 72 0.63 0.23 8.70 8.87 0.92 0.91 36.7 36.7 96 -0.34 10.34 0.88 40.9 120 -0.82 11.98 0.84 44.8 144 -1.19 13.98 0.78 48.7 168 -1.85 15.97 0.71 51.7 192 -2.77 17.66 0.65 54.4 216 -3.57 19.84 0.56 57.2 240 -4.16 21.94 0.47 59.8 264 -4.76 23.83 0.38 62.1 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.00 0.38 0.39 0.96 0.96 48 0.09 0.07 0.59 0.61 0.91 0.91 72 0.14 0.12 0.75 0.77 0.86 0.86 96 0.15 0.90 0.81 120 0.16 1.00 0.76 144 0.17 1.10 0.70 168 0.18 1.21 0.64 192 0.20 1.30 0.58 216 0.19 1.41 0.51 240 0.17 1.50 0.45 264 0.18 1.56 0.41 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.00 0.32 0.32 0.92 0.92 48 0.07 0.03 0.49 0.48 0.82 0.82 72 0.11 0.06 0.61 0.59 0.74 0.72 96 0.08 0.68 0.64 120 0.09 0.75 0.56 144 0.10 0.80 0.50 168 0.07 0.84 0.44 192 0.04 0.88 0.37 216 0.03 0.93 0.32 240 0.02 0.98 0.25 264 0.00 1.01 0.21 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 1.50 1.48 48 -0.07 -0.07 2.27 2.24 72 -0.16 -0.17 2.77 2.74 96 -0.28 3.14 120 -0.35 3.47 144 -0.44 3.84 168 -0.51 4.17 192 -0.54 4.47 216 -0.58 4.71 240 -0.64 4.90 264 -0.71 5.11 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.34 3.11 3.12 48 -0.45 -0.55 4.59 4.62 72 -0.55 -0.64 5.68 5.68 96 -0.72 6.54 120 -0.76 7.25 144 -0.77 8.00 168 -0.84 8.71 192 -0.89 9.32 216 -0.87 9.96 240 -0.84 10.71 264 -0.78 11.37 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.11 1.14 1.12 0.99 0.99 14.1 14.1 48 0.16 0.15 2.30 2.29 0.97 0.98 25.3 25.2 72 0.14 0.13 3.64 3.62 0.94 0.94 35.3 34.9 96 0.11 4.98 0.88 43.4 120 0.05 6.60 0.79 51.5 144 -0.03 8.07 0.69 58.2 168 -0.09 9.47 0.57 63.5 192 -0.14 10.54 0.48 67.8 216 -0.18 11.49 0.40 71.3 240 -0.23 12.18 0.32 73.6 264 -0.29 12.90 0.24 76.1 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.78 9.72 9.76 1.00 1.00 10.7 10.7 48 -1.27 -1.51 20.37 20.71 0.98 0.98 19.7 19.8 72 -2.01 -2.30 33.35 33.20 0.96 0.96 28.0 27.7 96 -3.00 47.33 0.92 35.5 120 -3.76 62.92 0.85 42.8 144 -4.82 79.47 0.76 49.4 168 -5.63 96.41 0.65 55.0 192 -5.97 109.90 0.55 59.5 216 -5.92 122.56 0.45 63.3 240 -6.38 132.34 0.36 66.4 264 -7.08 140.27 0.28 68.6 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.34 12.01 12.00 1.00 1.00 8.2 8.2 48 0.54 0.37 24.19 24.77 0.99 0.99 14.6 14.7 72 0.34 0.08 39.66 39.77 0.97 0.97 21.0 20.9 96 -0.21 57.33 0.93 27.3 120 -0.29 77.61 0.88 34.1 144 -1.10 98.07 0.80 40.2 168 -2.21 122.00 0.69 46.3 192 -3.00 141.10 0.59 50.9 216 -3.54 158.61 0.49 54.8 240 -5.14 174.45 0.37 58.4 264 -7.06 184.32 0.30 60.6 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 0.58 0.58 0.99 0.99 48 -0.02 -0.02 1.08 1.10 0.97 0.96 72 -0.03 -0.03 1.60 1.60 0.92 0.92 96 -0.04 2.12 0.87 120 -0.03 2.67 0.79 144 -0.04 3.22 0.69 168 -0.06 3.73 0.59 192 -0.07 4.15 0.49 216 -0.08 4.47 0.40 240 -0.12 4.80 0.31 264 -0.20 5.03 0.24 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.09 0.63 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 0.16 0.16 1.11 1.13 0.95 0.95 72 0.23 0.22 1.61 1.60 0.89 0.89 96 0.27 2.05 0.83 120 0.31 2.47 0.74 144 0.32 2.91 0.64 168 0.33 3.23 0.56 192 0.32 3.51 0.48 216 0.27 3.76 0.40 240 0.23 3.93 0.34 264 0.22 4.06 0.28 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.04 2.72 2.73 48 0.09 0.05 5.12 5.12 72 0.08 0.04 7.32 7.26 96 0.00 9.35 120 -0.01 11.45 144 -0.01 13.51 168 0.04 15.44 192 0.05 16.89 216 0.02 18.22 240 0.01 19.29 264 0.02 20.04 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.04 3.49 3.45 48 -0.18 -0.15 6.07 6.08 72 -0.27 -0.26 8.75 8.68 96 -0.33 11.37 120 -0.43 14.28 144 -0.53 17.24 168 -0.47 20.49 192 -0.61 22.89 216 -0.73 24.97 240 -0.81 26.91 264 -0.81 28.03 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.25 -2.52 8.37 8.16 0.96 0.96 48 -3.20 -2.18 10.63 10.98 0.96 0.96 72 -2.79 -3.40 14.32 14.80 0.94 0.94 96 -5.03 20.33 0.91 120 -3.11 25.07 0.88 144 -2.17 29.20 0.85 168 -3.04 33.30 0.81 192 -4.48 36.31 0.77 216 -6.31 39.25 0.72 240 -6.07 40.71 0.69 264 -6.45 44.97 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.60 -5.22 10.90 9.62 0.97 0.97 48 -4.64 -3.84 13.46 12.56 0.97 0.97 72 -2.76 -4.10 18.42 17.38 0.96 0.96 96 -4.43 24.53 0.94 120 -1.24 32.09 0.91 144 0.65 39.57 0.89 168 0.35 47.25 0.85 192 -1.21 54.80 0.80 216 -4.11 61.59 0.73 240 -3.96 66.00 0.68 264 -3.52 71.56 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.04 -6.84 15.47 13.36 0.98 0.98 48 -7.42 -5.65 21.15 19.15 0.98 0.98 72 -5.36 -6.23 29.37 27.84 0.96 0.96 96 -7.29 39.00 0.94 120 -4.71 50.44 0.92 144 -3.70 63.48 0.88 168 -3.65 76.68 0.83 192 -5.19 87.55 0.78 216 -9.24 100.11 0.72 240 -10.42 108.88 0.67 264 -8.93 115.85 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.67 1.43 1.74 0.87 0.88 48 -0.28 -0.53 1.57 1.83 0.91 0.90 72 -0.06 -0.37 1.79 1.96 0.89 0.88 96 -0.20 2.28 0.85 120 -0.05 2.69 0.80 144 0.07 3.03 0.76 168 0.09 3.33 0.72 192 0.02 3.72 0.65 216 -0.09 4.01 0.60 240 -0.11 4.20 0.57 264 -0.06 4.44 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.12 0.78 0.85 0.89 0.88 48 0.07 0.14 0.95 1.02 0.91 0.90 72 0.08 0.14 1.15 1.20 0.90 0.89 96 0.14 1.44 0.86 120 0.13 1.69 0.83 144 0.10 1.96 0.80 168 0.10 2.23 0.75 192 0.10 2.47 0.70 216 0.07 2.75 0.63 240 0.03 2.89 0.60 264 0.09 3.11 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.25 1.05 1.04 0.88 0.88 48 0.28 0.32 1.33 1.29 0.88 0.89 72 0.33 0.36 1.61 1.57 0.85 0.86 96 0.34 1.82 0.80 120 0.34 1.98 0.77 144 0.31 2.23 0.74 168 0.32 2.42 0.72 192 0.35 2.52 0.68 216 0.37 2.77 0.62 240 0.35 2.86 0.60 264 0.41 3.11 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.82 3.47 3.62 48 -0.83 -0.90 4.00 4.21 72 -0.96 -1.06 4.65 4.73 96 -1.13 5.50 120 -1.26 6.25 144 -1.35 6.83 168 -1.31 7.25 192 -1.36 7.87 216 -1.41 7.96 240 -1.45 8.24 264 -1.41 8.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.58 3.93 3.76 48 -0.81 -0.66 4.66 4.54 72 -0.91 -0.76 5.55 5.42 96 -0.85 6.42 120 -0.93 7.53 144 -1.04 8.52 168 -0.98 9.48 192 -1.04 10.36 216 -1.15 11.27 240 -1.25 11.83 264 -1.60 12.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.85 5.67 5.43 48 -1.35 -1.20 7.42 7.20 72 -1.63 -1.45 9.35 8.98 96 -1.66 10.94 120 -1.91 12.96 144 -2.01 14.81 168 -2.10 16.75 192 -2.19 18.03 216 -2.47 19.49 240 -2.70 21.18 264 -3.15 22.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.79 -3.80 8.78 7.24 0.95 0.96 48 -5.60 -5.76 9.93 9.98 0.97 0.97 72 -5.69 -5.56 12.33 12.10 0.96 0.96 96 -3.96 15.77 0.94 120 -3.59 19.61 0.91 144 -4.56 27.27 0.85 168 -7.99 32.84 0.82 192 -10.28 37.07 0.78 216 -14.13 40.20 0.73 240 -16.77 42.01 0.69 264 -14.71 46.27 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.18 -6.18 12.14 9.68 0.97 0.97 48 -8.80 -7.90 14.68 13.41 0.97 0.98 72 -7.77 -7.20 18.91 17.77 0.96 0.97 96 -4.61 23.77 0.95 120 -4.88 31.94 0.89 144 -7.42 42.32 0.84 168 -11.82 50.29 0.81 192 -14.60 59.37 0.75 216 -18.67 65.73 0.66 240 -23.68 67.72 0.66 264 -23.17 76.20 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.11 -6.95 16.01 12.95 0.98 0.98 48 -10.21 -8.36 20.38 18.76 0.97 0.98 72 -7.88 -6.93 26.80 26.52 0.96 0.96 96 -3.06 36.10 0.93 120 -4.09 50.26 0.88 144 -6.78 65.25 0.81 168 -11.31 73.54 0.79 192 -13.90 86.59 0.72 216 -20.33 98.73 0.61 240 -28.38 103.01 0.60 264 -30.65 115.58 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.07 1.20 1.12 0.87 0.86 48 -0.42 -0.10 1.34 1.28 0.88 0.88 72 -0.36 -0.04 1.51 1.45 0.87 0.86 96 0.02 1.70 0.84 120 0.02 1.98 0.80 144 -0.14 2.28 0.75 168 -0.20 2.58 0.73 192 -0.21 2.86 0.68 216 -0.14 3.21 0.62 240 -0.26 3.49 0.60 264 -0.44 3.76 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.02 0.70 0.67 0.92 0.90 48 -0.04 -0.01 0.87 0.83 0.91 0.91 72 0.06 0.03 1.11 1.09 0.89 0.88 96 0.10 1.36 0.83 120 0.08 1.69 0.77 144 0.01 1.97 0.70 168 0.00 2.02 0.71 192 -0.05 2.37 0.65 216 -0.15 2.54 0.60 240 -0.32 2.69 0.56 264 -0.47 2.98 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.36 0.47 1.06 1.11 0.89 0.88 48 0.48 0.57 1.40 1.34 0.86 0.86 72 0.59 0.67 1.72 1.71 0.81 0.81 96 0.77 1.96 0.79 120 0.93 2.27 0.71 144 1.14 2.63 0.68 168 1.02 2.68 0.68 192 1.12 2.99 0.63 216 1.03 2.96 0.61 240 1.12 2.97 0.61 264 1.38 3.43 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.48 3.43 3.30 48 -0.70 -0.53 3.76 3.62 72 -0.76 -0.63 4.16 3.99 96 -0.73 4.47 120 -0.77 5.02 144 -0.77 5.80 168 -0.80 6.29 192 -0.91 6.54 216 -0.89 7.08 240 -0.89 7.41 264 -0.92 7.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.57 3.35 3.15 48 -0.57 -0.67 4.16 3.87 72 -0.69 -0.76 5.17 4.96 96 -0.95 5.97 120 -0.96 7.34 144 -0.85 8.73 168 -0.70 9.71 192 -0.80 10.64 216 -0.86 11.68 240 -0.38 12.48 264 -0.31 13.31 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.80 5.12 4.67 48 -0.96 -0.94 6.63 6.23 72 -1.19 -1.24 8.69 8.41 96 -1.23 10.15 120 -1.31 12.70 144 -0.82 15.55 168 -0.83 16.35 192 -1.10 18.21 216 -1.25 19.81 240 -0.63 20.38 264 -0.36 22.20 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 -0.51 11.07 9.70 0.92 0.91 48 1.29 1.26 15.00 12.92 0.92 0.92 72 1.31 3.26 18.69 17.25 0.89 0.88 96 4.10 21.06 0.85 120 3.28 24.92 0.80 144 3.33 28.65 0.75 168 4.17 29.77 0.75 192 5.34 31.61 0.72 216 7.86 34.19 0.68 240 9.05 36.84 0.65 264 8.18 39.25 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -0.28 11.20 10.60 0.90 0.90 48 1.26 2.87 14.39 14.39 0.92 0.92 72 2.02 5.72 18.84 19.56 0.89 0.90 96 6.61 24.83 0.87 120 5.77 29.82 0.85 144 5.52 34.15 0.82 168 5.68 37.21 0.78 192 6.36 38.99 0.76 216 8.21 43.38 0.72 240 9.40 46.92 0.68 264 7.55 51.04 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 97 12 UTC = 103 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.90 -6.02 19.11 17.94 0.91 0.91 48 -8.62 -5.27 24.84 23.31 0.93 0.93 72 -9.78 -4.54 31.98 31.29 0.90 0.91 96 -5.88 40.10 0.88 120 -7.87 48.45 0.85 144 -10.01 56.91 0.81 168 -9.84 64.03 0.77 192 -10.77 66.51 0.75 216 -10.51 73.51 0.69 240 -9.27 79.51 0.63 264 -13.35 86.77 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 98 12 UTC = 104 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.21 1.82 1.58 0.73 0.77 48 -0.22 -0.06 1.98 1.79 0.76 0.79 72 -0.14 0.05 2.12 1.94 0.77 0.79 96 0.15 2.16 0.77 120 0.22 2.45 0.75 144 0.26 2.64 0.71 168 0.22 2.75 0.69 192 0.21 2.93 0.64 216 0.22 3.01 0.63 240 0.30 3.18 0.62 264 0.29 3.35 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 116 12 UTC = 125 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.05 0.99 0.99 0.75 0.77 48 -0.13 -0.09 1.19 1.16 0.80 0.82 72 -0.20 -0.16 1.37 1.36 0.81 0.81 96 -0.24 1.59 0.80 120 -0.28 1.79 0.79 144 -0.31 1.97 0.76 168 -0.32 2.16 0.71 192 -0.34 2.25 0.69 216 -0.38 2.36 0.65 240 -0.38 2.50 0.62 264 -0.46 2.65 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 134 12 UTC = 143 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.16 1.37 1.32 0.82 0.82 48 -0.40 -0.35 1.70 1.66 0.84 0.83 72 -0.49 -0.45 1.97 1.94 0.82 0.82 96 -0.52 2.26 0.79 120 -0.61 2.41 0.78 144 -0.73 2.71 0.73 168 -0.76 2.88 0.68 192 -0.87 3.03 0.64 216 -0.94 3.12 0.62 240 -1.02 3.21 0.63 264 -1.08 3.38 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.19 -0.65 3.99 3.70 48 -1.38 -0.74 4.59 4.24 72 -1.49 -0.97 5.21 4.84 96 -1.06 5.48 120 -1.16 6.12 144 -1.26 6.58 168 -1.34 7.03 192 -1.46 7.11 216 -1.53 7.37 240 -1.52 7.68 264 -1.53 7.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 111 12 UTC = 120 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.81 4.01 4.00 48 -1.07 -1.00 4.83 4.82 72 -1.18 -1.14 5.65 5.67 96 -1.14 6.53 120 -1.31 7.35 144 -1.44 7.87 168 -1.49 8.40 192 -1.49 8.80 216 -1.57 9.04 240 -1.63 9.63 264 -1.50 10.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 131 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.62 5.78 6.04 48 -0.74 -0.76 7.77 7.97 72 -0.82 -0.98 9.28 9.69 96 -0.96 11.39 120 -1.28 12.91 144 -1.26 13.99 168 -1.13 15.08 192 -1.11 15.71 216 -1.00 16.71 240 -0.98 17.71 264 -0.97 18.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 131 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.86 -2.89 6.74 7.96 0.98 0.98 48 -1.35 -0.16 9.75 11.51 0.98 0.97 72 -0.40 1.57 13.44 17.18 0.97 0.97 96 3.84 23.20 0.95 120 8.42 33.48 0.90 144 7.26 43.06 0.83 168 3.66 49.01 0.76 192 -1.59 55.92 0.74 216 -4.12 67.68 0.64 240 -6.25 71.99 0.55 264 -8.83 76.24 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.07 -8.36 10.63 12.93 0.98 0.98 48 -5.57 -6.32 14.65 18.26 0.98 0.96 72 -5.82 -4.76 20.06 23.50 0.98 0.97 96 -3.12 32.16 0.96 120 3.38 47.12 0.94 144 1.49 61.06 0.86 168 -3.67 73.18 0.79 192 -10.02 76.16 0.79 216 -11.80 91.32 0.71 240 -15.57 101.31 0.59 264 -21.66 104.63 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.43 -9.05 14.18 15.62 0.98 0.98 48 -4.02 -6.15 18.87 21.73 0.98 0.98 72 -3.46 -3.80 25.73 27.71 0.98 0.98 96 -1.22 40.49 0.97 120 6.89 56.80 0.95 144 8.34 72.86 0.89 168 3.26 92.05 0.82 192 -3.43 95.07 0.81 216 -10.76 113.17 0.76 240 -15.90 129.43 0.65 264 -29.00 133.69 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.47 1.20 1.18 0.82 0.86 48 -0.42 -0.52 1.36 1.35 0.87 0.90 72 -0.51 -0.52 1.54 1.58 0.88 0.89 96 -0.68 1.74 0.90 120 -0.78 2.21 0.85 144 -0.69 2.45 0.83 168 -0.71 2.94 0.71 192 -0.75 2.84 0.75 216 -0.79 3.25 0.71 240 -0.86 3.25 0.67 264 -1.08 3.44 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.18 1.03 0.98 0.91 0.91 48 -0.01 -0.19 1.17 1.21 0.94 0.92 72 -0.01 -0.14 1.35 1.40 0.93 0.94 96 -0.11 1.61 0.92 120 0.05 1.99 0.88 144 0.11 2.45 0.85 168 0.07 2.84 0.76 192 0.09 3.00 0.76 216 -0.02 3.28 0.75 240 -0.11 3.45 0.66 264 -0.46 3.60 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.39 1.16 1.27 0.91 0.91 48 0.46 0.52 1.38 1.68 0.93 0.87 72 0.55 0.60 1.66 1.87 0.93 0.89 96 0.63 2.20 0.90 120 0.46 2.68 0.88 144 0.54 2.95 0.84 168 0.59 3.23 0.81 192 0.81 3.50 0.75 216 0.62 3.82 0.67 240 0.71 4.31 0.62 264 0.69 4.23 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.24 3.56 3.69 48 -0.24 -0.15 4.01 4.11 72 -0.18 -0.03 4.61 4.85 96 0.05 5.77 120 0.02 7.09 144 -0.17 8.03 168 -0.25 8.83 192 -0.51 9.88 216 -0.64 10.29 240 -0.95 10.78 264 -1.01 10.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.52 4.46 4.59 48 -0.40 -0.48 5.41 5.50 72 -0.28 -0.61 6.57 6.42 96 -0.37 8.03 120 -0.26 9.68 144 -0.77 10.68 168 -0.64 11.55 192 -0.60 13.20 216 -0.68 13.83 240 -0.87 15.03 264 -0.89 15.09 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.47 5.16 5.45 48 -1.00 -0.65 6.32 6.70 72 -1.12 -0.86 7.65 7.86 96 -1.06 10.05 120 -1.07 12.47 144 -1.63 14.18 168 -1.52 16.84 192 -2.03 17.70 216 -2.63 19.75 240 -2.74 21.36 264 -3.14 21.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.69 -2.98 9.74 10.09 0.74 0.72 48 -2.32 -3.15 10.56 10.52 0.82 0.81 72 -1.96 -3.68 11.26 11.19 0.81 0.77 96 -4.08 11.85 0.73 120 -3.88 12.40 0.73 144 -4.16 13.38 0.68 168 -4.60 13.93 0.62 192 -5.05 14.78 0.56 216 -5.25 15.61 0.52 240 -5.67 16.37 0.46 264 -6.14 17.10 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.99 -6.02 12.69 12.56 0.70 0.63 48 -4.55 -5.97 13.28 13.18 0.83 0.74 72 -4.69 -6.59 13.88 13.96 0.83 0.74 96 -7.41 14.83 0.71 120 -7.99 15.55 0.70 144 -8.70 16.53 0.65 168 -9.34 17.36 0.63 192 -9.75 18.05 0.59 216 -10.08 18.95 0.54 240 -10.40 19.68 0.49 264 -10.61 20.19 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.36 -10.41 16.32 16.29 0.61 0.64 48 -8.96 -10.35 16.62 16.75 0.75 0.74 72 -9.02 -10.54 17.11 17.35 0.79 0.76 96 -10.98 18.01 0.75 120 -11.45 19.10 0.73 144 -12.23 20.71 0.70 168 -13.46 22.46 0.67 192 -14.28 23.40 0.64 216 -15.30 25.62 0.59 240 -15.57 26.53 0.57 264 -16.33 27.63 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.17 1.06 1.03 0.51 0.50 48 -0.07 -0.10 1.11 1.07 0.60 0.60 72 -0.06 -0.05 1.14 1.08 0.62 0.61 96 -0.03 1.11 0.59 120 -0.06 1.15 0.62 144 -0.08 1.18 0.57 168 -0.07 1.20 0.52 192 -0.05 1.26 0.48 216 -0.06 1.29 0.49 240 -0.07 1.38 0.43 264 -0.05 1.39 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.19 0.85 0.85 0.60 0.56 48 -0.28 -0.21 0.92 0.92 0.68 0.62 72 -0.29 -0.20 0.98 0.96 0.68 0.64 96 -0.20 1.00 0.64 120 -0.21 1.04 0.64 144 -0.21 1.10 0.61 168 -0.21 1.16 0.56 192 -0.20 1.20 0.52 216 -0.25 1.26 0.49 240 -0.23 1.28 0.45 264 -0.22 1.29 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.01 0.69 0.61 0.57 0.59 48 0.18 0.02 0.77 0.67 0.60 0.65 72 0.16 0.04 0.80 0.74 0.61 0.65 96 0.07 0.79 0.62 120 0.07 0.84 0.61 144 0.06 0.89 0.59 168 0.05 0.93 0.54 192 0.02 0.98 0.49 216 -0.02 1.00 0.47 240 -0.03 1.02 0.46 264 -0.06 1.05 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.52 3.46 3.39 48 -0.77 -0.66 3.79 3.73 72 -0.93 -0.73 4.12 3.93 96 -0.76 4.22 120 -0.75 4.48 144 -0.89 4.73 168 -0.99 4.91 192 -1.08 5.13 216 -1.19 5.33 240 -1.21 5.50 264 -1.18 5.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.07 -0.68 3.95 3.68 48 -1.23 -0.87 4.33 4.06 72 -1.35 -0.98 4.71 4.38 96 -1.08 4.79 120 -1.08 5.18 144 -1.15 5.68 168 -1.13 6.21 192 -1.25 6.59 216 -1.29 6.87 240 -1.28 7.27 264 -1.30 7.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.74 4.95 4.66 48 -0.91 -0.82 5.81 5.62 72 -1.07 -0.89 6.39 6.40 96 -1.01 7.19 120 -0.95 7.97 144 -0.89 8.79 168 -0.77 9.71 192 -0.58 10.20 216 -0.54 10.54 240 -0.55 11.17 264 -0.46 11.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.26 -2.61 9.85 9.11 0.96 0.96 48 -2.52 -2.25 12.56 11.94 0.96 0.96 72 -2.01 -1.60 16.17 15.73 0.95 0.95 96 -1.15 20.65 0.92 120 -0.73 26.07 0.88 144 -0.55 31.77 0.83 168 -1.10 36.02 0.80 192 -1.67 39.54 0.76 216 -2.17 42.93 0.72 240 -2.29 45.02 0.68 264 -1.80 48.15 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 333 12 UTC = 336 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.28 -3.86 12.02 11.00 0.96 0.96 48 -3.91 -2.83 15.20 14.65 0.97 0.97 72 -2.60 -1.67 20.43 19.97 0.96 0.96 96 -0.73 27.13 0.93 120 -0.03 35.94 0.89 144 -0.26 44.97 0.85 168 -1.07 52.00 0.81 192 -1.87 58.87 0.77 216 -2.74 64.79 0.72 240 -3.03 69.22 0.69 264 -3.15 74.44 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 349 12 UTC = 350 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.43 -6.52 17.87 16.80 0.97 0.96 48 -8.22 -6.55 23.48 22.47 0.97 0.97 72 -7.58 -6.31 31.84 30.76 0.96 0.95 96 -6.35 41.70 0.93 120 -6.75 55.16 0.89 144 -8.17 68.99 0.85 168 -9.26 80.03 0.80 192 -10.72 89.64 0.76 216 -12.76 99.43 0.71 240 -14.20 106.94 0.68 264 -15.41 114.92 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 349 12 UTC = 352 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.43 1.56 1.59 0.84 0.84 48 -0.40 -0.35 1.71 1.75 0.87 0.87 72 -0.29 -0.24 1.89 1.91 0.87 0.86 96 -0.12 2.17 0.84 120 -0.05 2.54 0.80 144 -0.05 2.85 0.75 168 -0.07 3.11 0.72 192 -0.08 3.40 0.67 216 -0.07 3.62 0.63 240 -0.06 3.84 0.61 264 -0.07 4.04 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 378 12 UTC = 381 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.02 0.89 0.91 0.87 0.87 48 -0.03 0.01 1.10 1.09 0.89 0.89 72 -0.04 -0.02 1.33 1.32 0.88 0.88 96 -0.05 1.59 0.85 120 -0.08 1.90 0.82 144 -0.13 2.20 0.77 168 -0.15 2.43 0.73 192 -0.17 2.63 0.69 216 -0.21 2.81 0.65 240 -0.25 2.95 0.63 264 -0.30 3.13 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 405 12 UTC = 409 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.19 1.33 1.32 0.88 0.88 48 0.11 0.13 1.68 1.63 0.87 0.87 72 0.10 0.11 2.01 1.98 0.85 0.85 96 0.08 2.32 0.82 120 0.06 2.57 0.78 144 0.03 2.91 0.72 168 -0.02 3.10 0.69 192 -0.05 3.26 0.65 216 -0.08 3.41 0.63 240 -0.09 3.49 0.62 264 -0.05 3.70 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 405 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.67 3.64 3.56 48 -0.98 -0.75 4.16 4.07 72 -1.08 -0.91 4.75 4.63 96 -0.97 5.31 120 -1.05 6.02 144 -1.11 6.68 168 -1.11 7.14 192 -1.19 7.46 216 -1.24 7.72 240 -1.26 7.98 264 -1.28 8.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 361 12 UTC = 366 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.68 3.81 3.74 48 -0.84 -0.82 4.64 4.57 72 -0.95 -0.93 5.67 5.58 96 -0.96 6.67 120 -1.02 7.86 144 -1.08 8.95 168 -1.08 9.75 192 -1.12 10.46 216 -1.19 11.17 240 -1.16 11.74 264 -1.25 12.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 393 12 UTC = 399 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.75 5.45 5.44 48 -0.94 -0.96 7.27 7.25 72 -1.13 -1.18 9.22 9.20 96 -1.25 11.17 120 -1.43 13.20 144 -1.39 15.16 168 -1.36 16.49 192 -1.40 17.74 216 -1.45 18.89 240 -1.41 19.98 264 -1.53 20.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 392 12 UTC = 399 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.19 8.83 10.44 0.98 0.97 48 -0.04 0.16 11.84 13.61 0.98 0.98 72 -0.60 -0.38 16.15 19.98 0.97 0.96 96 -0.07 27.72 0.92 120 1.15 35.80 0.90 144 0.19 43.38 0.84 168 -0.31 50.58 0.77 192 -1.72 56.92 0.74 216 -3.80 62.64 0.67 240 -3.92 69.62 0.60 264 -4.37 74.65 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.93 -7.76 13.46 14.50 0.98 0.98 48 -8.31 -8.90 18.66 21.27 0.98 0.98 72 -9.67 -9.57 25.68 29.59 0.97 0.97 96 -9.62 39.52 0.95 120 -8.35 54.86 0.91 144 -8.76 66.23 0.86 168 -10.21 77.81 0.81 192 -8.72 88.93 0.76 216 -13.17 96.63 0.72 240 -17.03 107.17 0.66 264 -20.72 113.61 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.57 -10.19 18.11 19.38 0.98 0.98 48 -8.85 -11.43 25.21 27.05 0.98 0.98 72 -9.55 -12.16 33.32 36.12 0.98 0.98 96 -11.77 49.54 0.96 120 -9.52 68.61 0.93 144 -8.31 86.27 0.88 168 -9.75 104.94 0.82 192 -10.38 122.00 0.79 216 -19.44 131.44 0.76 240 -26.80 144.82 0.70 264 -36.33 156.86 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.81 1.65 1.76 0.87 0.89 48 -0.82 -0.93 1.86 1.98 0.92 0.92 72 -0.90 -0.97 2.06 2.21 0.92 0.91 96 -1.02 2.50 0.90 120 -1.13 3.10 0.86 144 -1.08 3.48 0.81 168 -1.11 4.08 0.73 192 -0.96 4.46 0.70 216 -0.99 4.58 0.70 240 -1.30 4.97 0.64 264 -1.37 5.27 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.11 1.06 1.03 0.93 0.91 48 -0.13 -0.17 1.29 1.27 0.94 0.94 72 -0.14 -0.18 1.55 1.55 0.94 0.94 96 -0.15 1.90 0.93 120 -0.07 2.43 0.89 144 -0.04 3.00 0.85 168 -0.02 3.48 0.77 192 0.01 3.79 0.74 216 -0.18 3.98 0.72 240 -0.37 4.22 0.66 264 -0.66 4.49 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.29 0.37 1.25 1.32 0.91 0.89 48 0.41 0.42 1.49 1.61 0.92 0.90 72 0.50 0.46 1.79 1.87 0.91 0.89 96 0.48 2.23 0.86 120 0.41 2.62 0.83 144 0.37 2.80 0.80 168 0.31 3.05 0.75 192 0.26 3.24 0.71 216 -0.02 3.48 0.68 240 -0.01 3.83 0.65 264 -0.11 3.86 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.65 4.29 4.35 48 -0.66 -0.67 4.74 4.85 72 -0.62 -0.55 5.42 5.66 96 -0.54 6.60 120 -0.50 7.51 144 -0.73 8.54 168 -0.56 9.44 192 -0.74 10.43 216 -0.83 10.66 240 -1.05 11.35 264 -1.14 11.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.38 4.73 4.79 48 -0.18 -0.35 5.78 5.82 72 -0.07 -0.20 7.12 6.93 96 -0.13 8.78 120 -0.09 10.36 144 -0.33 12.04 168 -0.28 13.66 192 -0.58 15.19 216 -0.16 15.75 240 -0.46 17.16 264 -0.46 17.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.15 5.60 5.73 48 -0.37 0.08 7.01 7.30 72 -0.16 0.23 8.76 8.86 96 -0.13 11.16 120 -0.10 13.84 144 -0.44 16.11 168 -0.15 19.56 192 -0.42 21.13 216 -0.26 22.65 240 -0.86 25.19 264 -0.94 25.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 44 ---------------------------------------------------------