VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY SEPTEMBER 2013 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.04 0.83 0.82 0.99 0.99 18.4 18.9 48 0.13 0.12 1.44 1.44 0.98 0.98 28.0 28.6 72 0.23 0.21 2.17 2.17 0.95 0.95 37.1 37.4 96 0.32 3.04 0.90 46.4 120 0.40 4.05 0.81 55.2 144 0.46 5.08 0.70 63.8 168 0.54 5.92 0.58 70.3 192 0.68 6.78 0.46 75.1 216 0.82 7.42 0.35 78.9 240 0.95 8.07 0.24 82.7 264 1.01 8.21 0.21 84.2 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.38 6.28 6.25 1.00 1.00 11.8 11.8 48 1.18 1.05 12.61 12.54 0.99 0.99 20.5 20.4 72 1.97 1.69 21.19 21.26 0.96 0.96 29.7 29.4 96 2.43 31.79 0.92 38.5 120 2.95 44.15 0.84 47.4 144 3.26 56.48 0.73 55.6 168 3.55 67.51 0.61 62.5 192 4.30 78.18 0.48 68.2 216 5.00 86.48 0.37 72.9 240 5.42 93.59 0.27 77.0 264 5.21 97.01 0.22 78.7 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.21 9.26 9.44 1.00 1.00 10.5 10.5 48 0.49 0.41 18.86 19.08 0.99 0.99 18.5 18.7 72 0.56 0.28 31.41 31.68 0.96 0.96 27.4 27.3 96 0.32 46.84 0.92 35.9 120 -0.03 63.77 0.84 44.1 144 -0.79 81.12 0.74 51.8 168 -1.90 97.45 0.62 58.5 192 -2.43 112.50 0.50 64.2 216 -3.29 125.73 0.37 68.6 240 -4.42 137.50 0.25 72.7 264 -5.98 142.95 0.20 74.2 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.47 0.47 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 -0.01 0.83 0.85 0.97 0.96 72 -0.04 -0.05 1.25 1.26 0.92 0.92 96 -0.09 1.69 0.85 120 -0.13 2.12 0.76 144 -0.18 2.56 0.65 168 -0.25 2.96 0.53 192 -0.31 3.34 0.41 216 -0.37 3.62 0.31 240 -0.42 3.94 0.19 264 -0.50 4.08 0.14 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.63 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 0.03 0.03 1.05 1.05 0.94 0.93 72 0.03 0.03 1.50 1.49 0.86 0.86 96 0.04 1.92 0.77 120 0.05 2.33 0.65 144 0.02 2.69 0.53 168 -0.01 2.97 0.43 192 -0.04 3.20 0.33 216 -0.09 3.33 0.26 240 -0.16 3.51 0.17 264 -0.19 3.59 0.15 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.08 2.07 2.05 48 -0.20 -0.16 3.56 3.54 72 -0.27 -0.23 5.14 5.14 96 -0.27 6.77 120 -0.33 8.41 144 -0.41 9.97 168 -0.50 11.31 192 -0.59 12.44 216 -0.66 13.36 240 -0.72 14.18 264 -0.74 14.56 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.32 3.39 3.38 48 -0.52 -0.52 5.78 5.76 72 -0.67 -0.66 8.35 8.28 96 -0.74 11.00 120 -0.83 13.60 144 -0.95 16.00 168 -1.07 18.23 192 -1.17 20.11 216 -1.33 21.57 240 -1.41 23.04 264 -1.48 23.60 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.55 3.13 3.01 0.97 0.98 25.0 24.6 48 -0.63 -0.66 4.52 4.56 0.94 0.95 33.9 33.3 72 -0.55 -0.61 5.67 5.89 0.91 0.92 39.6 38.9 96 -0.40 6.83 0.88 43.0 120 -0.23 7.64 0.85 46.3 144 -0.10 8.61 0.81 49.4 168 -0.27 9.83 0.75 52.6 192 -0.03 10.97 0.69 55.4 216 0.34 11.88 0.63 57.9 240 0.19 12.97 0.58 59.7 264 0.13 14.08 0.50 61.6 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.09 0.71 4.37 4.32 0.98 0.98 22.1 21.8 48 1.53 1.16 6.68 6.60 0.96 0.96 30.8 30.0 72 1.83 1.45 8.60 8.34 0.93 0.93 36.5 35.9 96 1.62 9.97 0.90 40.3 120 1.48 11.81 0.86 44.1 144 1.26 13.63 0.81 47.8 168 0.54 15.56 0.74 51.4 192 0.15 17.39 0.68 54.2 216 -0.07 18.95 0.62 56.7 240 -0.30 20.31 0.56 58.4 264 -0.36 22.52 0.48 60.2 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.39 0.40 0.97 0.97 48 0.12 0.12 0.64 0.64 0.91 0.93 72 0.19 0.18 0.82 0.83 0.86 0.88 96 0.23 0.98 0.83 120 0.25 1.09 0.79 144 0.25 1.19 0.75 168 0.24 1.31 0.70 192 0.22 1.42 0.65 216 0.19 1.48 0.62 240 0.18 1.54 0.59 264 0.19 1.60 0.55 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 0.32 0.31 0.93 0.93 48 0.03 0.01 0.47 0.46 0.85 0.85 72 0.08 0.06 0.58 0.57 0.77 0.76 96 0.09 0.66 0.68 120 0.11 0.74 0.60 144 0.11 0.79 0.53 168 0.12 0.85 0.45 192 0.12 0.90 0.38 216 0.11 0.96 0.31 240 0.11 0.99 0.27 264 0.08 1.03 0.23 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 1.52 1.51 48 -0.05 -0.07 2.33 2.30 72 -0.12 -0.15 2.87 2.84 96 -0.23 3.24 120 -0.30 3.58 144 -0.36 3.90 168 -0.43 4.23 192 -0.44 4.55 216 -0.45 4.77 240 -0.47 5.03 264 -0.51 5.24 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.36 3.07 3.09 48 -0.50 -0.58 4.55 4.57 72 -0.64 -0.68 5.60 5.65 96 -0.78 6.43 120 -0.87 7.15 144 -0.94 7.93 168 -0.96 8.67 192 -0.93 9.30 216 -0.90 9.93 240 -0.90 10.34 264 -0.92 10.81 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.06 1.13 1.09 0.99 1.00 14.4 14.1 48 0.03 0.05 2.26 2.23 0.98 0.98 25.5 25.3 72 -0.06 -0.03 3.64 3.62 0.95 0.95 35.8 35.5 96 -0.16 5.01 0.90 43.9 120 -0.25 6.23 0.84 50.5 144 -0.33 7.53 0.76 56.9 168 -0.38 8.97 0.66 62.6 192 -0.50 9.96 0.58 66.1 216 -0.66 10.65 0.53 68.9 240 -0.72 11.18 0.48 70.5 264 -0.80 11.75 0.41 72.2 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.52 10.07 9.88 1.00 1.00 11.2 11.0 48 -1.36 -1.20 20.70 20.77 0.99 0.99 20.6 20.3 72 -2.16 -1.88 34.20 34.38 0.96 0.96 29.3 29.1 96 -2.85 48.73 0.92 36.9 120 -3.45 62.56 0.87 43.4 144 -3.69 76.71 0.80 49.0 168 -4.05 91.94 0.71 54.6 192 -5.09 104.35 0.62 58.3 216 -6.16 114.70 0.54 61.5 240 -6.67 122.50 0.48 63.9 264 -6.88 129.14 0.41 65.6 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.35 0.18 12.18 12.21 1.00 1.00 8.7 8.6 48 0.13 0.13 25.04 25.01 0.99 0.99 15.5 15.4 72 -0.18 -0.14 41.36 41.19 0.97 0.97 22.6 22.4 96 -0.42 59.27 0.93 29.0 120 -0.47 77.01 0.88 35.2 144 -0.95 94.90 0.82 40.5 168 -1.02 114.89 0.73 45.8 192 -1.06 132.10 0.64 49.9 216 -1.28 148.88 0.54 53.6 240 -2.18 160.44 0.47 56.2 264 -2.27 170.11 0.40 58.2 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.59 0.58 0.99 0.99 48 0.00 0.00 1.11 1.11 0.96 0.96 72 0.02 0.01 1.66 1.65 0.92 0.92 96 0.04 2.21 0.86 120 0.07 2.68 0.79 144 0.07 3.12 0.72 168 0.07 3.63 0.61 192 0.11 4.03 0.52 216 0.13 4.39 0.43 240 0.13 4.68 0.35 264 0.14 4.88 0.29 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.05 0.64 0.64 0.99 0.99 48 0.10 0.08 1.13 1.13 0.96 0.96 72 0.12 0.09 1.63 1.63 0.91 0.91 96 0.12 2.09 0.85 120 0.14 2.51 0.78 144 0.13 2.91 0.69 168 0.13 3.34 0.59 192 0.16 3.57 0.53 216 0.17 3.79 0.47 240 0.17 3.99 0.40 264 0.13 4.18 0.33 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 2.79 2.74 48 0.05 0.05 5.17 5.14 72 0.10 0.11 7.47 7.44 96 0.19 9.56 120 0.24 11.42 144 0.26 13.13 168 0.24 14.78 192 0.33 16.05 216 0.37 17.05 240 0.36 17.96 264 0.33 18.66 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.01 3.50 3.51 48 -0.06 -0.06 6.25 6.20 72 -0.08 -0.11 8.97 8.86 96 -0.07 11.54 120 -0.02 14.25 144 0.02 16.69 168 0.09 19.11 192 0.19 21.15 216 0.35 23.06 240 0.27 24.41 264 0.29 25.65 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.38 -2.13 7.76 7.40 0.98 0.98 48 -1.30 -1.24 9.91 10.37 0.97 0.97 72 1.30 -0.62 13.89 14.64 0.95 0.96 96 0.10 20.84 0.91 120 0.64 26.70 0.86 144 1.53 31.75 0.82 168 2.20 37.08 0.75 192 3.26 45.23 0.60 216 4.73 50.89 0.54 240 8.43 53.15 0.56 264 11.37 53.38 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.95 -5.62 10.31 10.19 0.98 0.98 48 -3.58 -4.19 13.26 13.51 0.98 0.98 72 -0.29 -3.49 18.64 19.70 0.97 0.96 96 -3.20 29.49 0.93 120 -2.04 37.10 0.90 144 -2.22 46.37 0.84 168 -1.95 55.81 0.77 192 -0.33 68.04 0.61 216 1.52 78.28 0.48 240 5.70 85.03 0.49 264 8.03 86.42 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.28 -9.11 15.67 15.57 0.99 0.99 48 -7.76 -8.70 22.07 21.88 0.98 0.98 72 -5.23 -8.84 31.26 32.56 0.96 0.96 96 -10.30 47.61 0.93 120 -11.28 59.73 0.90 144 -14.61 74.40 0.84 168 -15.10 88.17 0.77 192 -13.65 106.11 0.62 216 -10.53 121.84 0.52 240 -6.62 134.87 0.50 264 -5.70 140.44 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.52 1.38 1.58 0.92 0.92 48 -0.11 -0.40 1.56 1.72 0.94 0.94 72 0.05 -0.30 1.85 1.99 0.92 0.92 96 -0.20 2.37 0.88 120 -0.04 2.69 0.86 144 -0.02 3.20 0.81 168 0.02 3.69 0.74 192 0.17 4.20 0.63 216 0.26 4.65 0.57 240 0.41 5.05 0.52 264 0.45 5.26 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.13 0.84 0.87 0.93 0.91 48 -0.12 -0.16 1.02 1.08 0.94 0.93 72 -0.15 -0.20 1.29 1.38 0.90 0.89 96 -0.24 1.71 0.85 120 -0.25 1.99 0.82 144 -0.40 2.32 0.77 168 -0.42 2.61 0.70 192 -0.41 3.05 0.57 216 -0.36 3.39 0.49 240 -0.35 3.73 0.48 264 -0.52 3.98 0.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.28 1.00 1.05 0.89 0.89 48 0.21 0.26 1.27 1.29 0.88 0.89 72 0.18 0.27 1.52 1.60 0.85 0.83 96 0.18 1.91 0.80 120 0.07 2.18 0.75 144 -0.04 2.37 0.72 168 -0.04 2.52 0.70 192 -0.02 2.71 0.63 216 0.01 2.92 0.56 240 0.01 3.09 0.53 264 0.05 3.12 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.93 3.52 3.78 48 -0.81 -0.94 4.00 4.24 72 -0.83 -1.01 4.61 4.82 96 -1.05 5.69 120 -1.06 6.38 144 -1.11 6.92 168 -0.94 7.67 192 -0.77 8.50 216 -0.78 9.18 240 -0.87 9.45 264 -0.90 9.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.61 3.68 3.79 48 -0.80 -0.74 4.47 4.65 72 -0.81 -0.78 5.70 5.76 96 -0.75 7.36 120 -0.77 8.56 144 -0.59 9.36 168 -0.52 11.03 192 -0.79 12.29 216 -0.78 13.70 240 -1.01 14.71 264 -1.24 14.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -0.99 5.58 5.48 48 -1.37 -1.27 7.24 7.00 72 -1.47 -1.45 9.49 9.17 96 -1.56 12.10 120 -1.70 14.23 144 -1.38 16.17 168 -1.36 18.77 192 -1.77 21.00 216 -1.87 23.22 240 -2.26 25.39 264 -2.32 25.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.02 -3.64 7.93 7.65 0.97 0.96 48 -2.44 -3.56 9.82 10.55 0.96 0.96 72 -1.02 -2.10 15.31 16.11 0.93 0.93 96 0.69 23.54 0.90 120 0.28 31.64 0.82 144 -4.47 42.32 0.73 168 -6.72 49.92 0.65 192 -4.16 54.56 0.60 216 1.24 59.69 0.52 240 5.22 69.19 0.49 264 3.45 74.31 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.63 -7.28 12.37 11.33 0.98 0.98 48 -6.95 -7.36 15.84 16.26 0.98 0.98 72 -4.41 -4.36 23.69 25.61 0.96 0.95 96 -1.25 37.88 0.92 120 -1.87 53.47 0.85 144 -5.34 72.99 0.74 168 -7.17 89.44 0.66 192 -8.14 98.27 0.58 216 -5.58 109.00 0.49 240 -1.05 121.95 0.43 264 -0.89 126.29 0.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.91 -10.96 17.41 17.16 0.99 0.98 48 -11.35 -12.13 24.58 26.04 0.98 0.98 72 -8.48 -9.31 36.47 39.54 0.96 0.95 96 -7.83 60.46 0.90 120 -9.63 82.95 0.85 144 -11.80 113.34 0.73 168 -16.46 138.17 0.64 192 -18.95 149.51 0.58 216 -19.53 168.56 0.48 240 -17.26 181.03 0.42 264 -15.79 185.47 0.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 0.00 1.22 1.18 0.87 0.87 48 -0.25 0.02 1.39 1.35 0.91 0.90 72 -0.10 0.16 1.67 1.74 0.90 0.89 96 0.32 2.23 0.85 120 0.43 2.76 0.79 144 0.57 3.44 0.69 168 0.66 4.07 0.60 192 0.38 4.33 0.51 216 0.28 4.65 0.44 240 0.33 4.91 0.41 264 0.51 5.08 0.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.14 0.84 0.82 0.92 0.92 48 -0.16 -0.16 1.08 1.08 0.94 0.93 72 -0.13 -0.12 1.46 1.50 0.91 0.90 96 -0.17 2.08 0.85 120 -0.24 2.66 0.78 144 -0.18 3.36 0.66 168 -0.20 3.82 0.58 192 -0.35 4.06 0.53 216 -0.50 4.42 0.46 240 -0.59 4.62 0.42 264 -0.50 4.57 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.32 0.29 1.09 1.06 0.91 0.90 48 0.27 0.23 1.41 1.35 0.90 0.90 72 0.22 0.22 1.76 1.80 0.86 0.85 96 0.24 2.12 0.80 120 0.15 2.45 0.69 144 0.17 2.70 0.61 168 0.09 2.99 0.58 192 0.08 3.19 0.55 216 0.05 3.39 0.50 240 -0.03 3.56 0.47 264 -0.12 3.38 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.47 3.62 3.61 48 -0.68 -0.51 4.02 4.06 72 -0.84 -0.59 4.80 4.76 96 -0.63 5.82 120 -0.67 6.72 144 -0.53 7.91 168 -0.44 8.75 192 -0.62 8.98 216 -0.86 9.37 240 -0.74 10.24 264 -0.55 10.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.49 3.85 3.79 48 -0.59 -0.58 4.81 4.77 72 -0.67 -0.77 6.31 6.47 96 -0.93 8.22 120 -0.99 10.25 144 -1.10 12.84 168 -0.94 14.75 192 -1.31 15.87 216 -1.56 17.25 240 -1.82 18.62 264 -1.52 19.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.61 5.31 5.18 48 -0.87 -0.78 7.26 7.16 72 -0.87 -1.04 10.22 10.22 96 -1.45 13.68 120 -1.44 16.99 144 -1.73 21.35 168 -1.92 24.74 192 -2.26 26.62 216 -2.43 29.62 240 -3.07 30.78 264 -3.54 31.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.18 1.29 11.09 8.91 0.95 0.96 48 3.00 3.17 14.21 11.84 0.95 0.96 72 3.83 4.34 17.59 15.66 0.94 0.94 96 4.10 20.13 0.91 120 4.45 24.39 0.86 144 5.15 30.21 0.78 168 7.36 33.63 0.75 192 9.62 38.91 0.71 216 12.61 44.52 0.61 240 13.07 48.32 0.54 264 12.08 51.99 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.46 -0.15 10.37 10.37 0.95 0.97 48 -0.27 2.61 12.98 13.58 0.97 0.97 72 0.09 3.99 17.71 18.59 0.95 0.95 96 2.72 24.63 0.92 120 1.87 29.57 0.91 144 1.71 37.28 0.86 168 4.13 45.70 0.80 192 6.09 54.12 0.75 216 8.13 62.01 0.66 240 9.18 66.61 0.61 264 7.63 69.05 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 97 12 UTC = 104 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.84 -2.69 17.97 18.06 0.96 0.97 48 -5.24 0.19 22.47 22.37 0.97 0.97 72 -6.74 0.54 30.05 30.19 0.96 0.96 96 -3.31 40.40 0.93 120 -6.72 49.05 0.92 144 -7.59 59.81 0.89 168 -5.90 71.71 0.84 192 -5.60 85.80 0.80 216 -6.38 98.69 0.71 240 -4.61 108.19 0.65 264 -4.61 111.28 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 97 12 UTC = 104 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.55 1.89 1.70 0.88 0.89 48 -0.47 -0.48 2.04 1.87 0.90 0.91 72 -0.46 -0.40 2.27 2.06 0.89 0.91 96 -0.40 2.31 0.88 120 -0.38 2.57 0.86 144 -0.30 2.96 0.82 168 -0.25 3.38 0.78 192 -0.21 3.95 0.71 216 -0.13 4.41 0.63 240 -0.13 4.82 0.55 264 -0.16 4.92 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.10 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.92 48 -0.18 -0.11 1.13 1.11 0.93 0.94 72 -0.30 -0.19 1.42 1.41 0.91 0.91 96 -0.31 1.69 0.89 120 -0.43 2.00 0.86 144 -0.51 2.39 0.82 168 -0.58 2.81 0.77 192 -0.67 3.33 0.70 216 -0.71 3.59 0.64 240 -0.67 3.79 0.58 264 -0.64 3.91 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 145 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.23 1.23 1.24 0.86 0.89 48 0.21 0.30 1.47 1.48 0.87 0.88 72 0.19 0.31 1.78 1.80 0.84 0.85 96 0.28 2.09 0.81 120 0.25 2.33 0.79 144 0.29 2.66 0.77 168 0.30 3.00 0.71 192 0.37 3.24 0.69 216 0.31 3.35 0.65 240 0.34 3.47 0.63 264 0.50 3.58 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 143 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.70 3.74 3.65 48 -1.02 -0.79 4.25 4.08 72 -1.07 -0.81 4.99 4.64 96 -0.79 5.36 120 -0.80 6.11 144 -0.71 6.95 168 -0.86 7.44 192 -0.99 7.95 216 -1.02 8.45 240 -1.04 8.81 264 -0.97 9.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 116 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.65 3.90 3.90 48 -0.81 -0.66 4.73 4.71 72 -0.84 -0.63 5.78 5.83 96 -0.60 6.81 120 -0.71 7.89 144 -0.86 9.18 168 -1.01 10.15 192 -1.19 11.08 216 -1.45 11.99 240 -1.66 12.47 264 -1.49 13.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.62 5.01 5.18 48 -0.80 -0.74 6.62 6.67 72 -0.80 -0.73 8.29 8.31 96 -0.64 9.90 120 -0.63 11.49 144 -0.72 13.56 168 -0.97 15.21 192 -1.17 17.19 216 -1.37 19.05 240 -1.42 20.62 264 -1.47 20.98 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.08 -3.19 8.15 8.68 0.98 0.98 48 -1.89 0.19 10.53 12.67 0.98 0.98 72 -1.02 0.81 14.54 19.09 0.97 0.96 96 0.71 23.07 0.95 120 -0.13 29.39 0.93 144 0.55 37.41 0.89 168 4.28 45.84 0.80 192 6.08 52.87 0.77 216 4.37 55.94 0.76 240 -1.36 61.76 0.70 264 2.67 62.93 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.55 -7.94 11.72 13.64 0.98 0.97 48 -6.42 -4.15 14.80 17.92 0.98 0.97 72 -6.37 -3.66 19.87 24.77 0.97 0.96 96 -4.25 33.15 0.94 120 -4.51 42.31 0.90 144 -3.78 53.25 0.86 168 2.24 62.36 0.79 192 2.84 71.49 0.76 216 3.53 75.06 0.80 240 -1.10 80.78 0.72 264 3.71 87.33 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.96 -7.80 13.97 15.97 0.98 0.97 48 -5.88 -3.45 18.02 20.55 0.98 0.97 72 -6.13 -2.20 24.31 28.62 0.97 0.96 96 -2.03 38.33 0.94 120 -2.76 48.66 0.90 144 -0.66 64.44 0.89 168 5.94 76.51 0.82 192 8.36 87.30 0.78 216 10.94 95.33 0.79 240 9.06 103.21 0.73 264 11.00 108.38 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.50 1.41 1.28 0.88 0.89 48 -0.73 -0.45 1.60 1.43 0.91 0.90 72 -0.81 -0.50 1.86 1.63 0.90 0.88 96 -0.50 1.94 0.86 120 -0.55 2.15 0.84 144 -0.61 2.51 0.77 168 -0.53 2.79 0.74 192 -0.58 3.13 0.70 216 -0.62 3.32 0.70 240 -0.25 3.28 0.71 264 -0.46 3.42 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 -0.21 0.99 0.96 0.89 0.92 48 0.00 -0.17 1.10 1.10 0.90 0.94 72 0.00 -0.18 1.34 1.34 0.89 0.90 96 -0.24 1.69 0.85 120 -0.23 1.96 0.79 144 -0.11 2.51 0.78 168 0.02 2.79 0.69 192 0.02 2.91 0.67 216 0.21 3.02 0.63 240 0.22 3.24 0.66 264 0.26 3.39 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.41 1.27 1.39 0.91 0.92 48 0.34 0.38 1.53 1.71 0.92 0.92 72 0.41 0.44 1.78 1.93 0.90 0.90 96 0.53 2.23 0.84 120 0.64 2.60 0.81 144 0.61 3.12 0.75 168 0.51 3.15 0.73 192 0.55 3.55 0.67 216 0.57 3.80 0.66 240 0.89 4.02 0.61 264 0.54 4.45 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.43 3.92 3.93 48 -0.36 -0.45 4.46 4.47 72 -0.30 -0.43 5.13 5.04 96 -0.41 5.65 120 -0.34 6.74 144 -0.55 7.74 168 -0.65 8.74 192 -0.69 9.19 216 -0.62 10.25 240 -0.57 10.37 264 -0.73 11.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.53 4.41 4.28 48 -0.55 -0.56 5.21 5.15 72 -0.45 -0.60 6.54 6.24 96 -0.71 7.81 120 -0.59 9.54 144 -0.51 11.51 168 -0.52 13.27 192 -0.68 14.15 216 -0.79 14.62 240 -0.81 15.41 264 -1.22 16.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.66 5.12 5.40 48 -0.62 -0.72 6.30 6.36 72 -0.83 -0.96 7.55 7.90 96 -1.02 9.73 120 -1.21 12.27 144 -1.39 15.32 168 -2.00 17.24 192 -2.18 18.38 216 -1.91 19.72 240 -1.73 20.41 264 -2.68 22.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.42 -3.54 10.19 10.19 0.76 0.77 48 -3.19 -3.68 10.83 10.94 0.85 0.85 72 -2.88 -3.87 11.47 11.72 0.84 0.83 96 -3.61 12.17 0.79 120 -3.33 12.60 0.77 144 -3.56 13.29 0.77 168 -4.28 14.48 0.73 192 -4.09 15.46 0.69 216 -3.69 16.00 0.68 240 -3.80 16.64 0.64 264 -4.16 17.60 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.94 -5.03 12.04 12.34 0.69 0.67 48 -5.13 -4.33 12.01 12.49 0.83 0.81 72 -4.97 -4.14 12.54 12.91 0.83 0.81 96 -4.17 13.38 0.79 120 -4.27 13.84 0.79 144 -4.68 14.74 0.78 168 -5.67 15.89 0.73 192 -5.71 16.68 0.72 216 -5.72 17.05 0.71 240 -5.95 17.74 0.63 264 -6.13 18.55 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.53 -10.34 17.59 17.17 0.68 0.67 48 -10.89 -9.50 17.73 17.33 0.80 0.80 72 -10.66 -9.15 18.19 17.94 0.82 0.82 96 -9.06 18.84 0.78 120 -8.95 19.53 0.77 144 -9.00 20.53 0.77 168 -9.71 21.54 0.74 192 -9.99 22.82 0.69 216 -10.03 23.71 0.66 240 -10.08 24.50 0.60 264 -10.29 25.47 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.08 1.08 1.14 0.58 0.51 48 -0.06 0.07 1.11 1.17 0.69 0.63 72 0.00 0.15 1.18 1.23 0.71 0.70 96 0.18 1.28 0.67 120 0.20 1.34 0.65 144 0.19 1.40 0.63 168 0.18 1.41 0.64 192 0.16 1.49 0.60 216 0.13 1.50 0.60 240 0.11 1.62 0.53 264 0.12 1.66 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.15 0.87 0.87 0.57 0.51 48 -0.26 -0.16 0.93 0.92 0.64 0.59 72 -0.28 -0.16 0.98 0.99 0.64 0.60 96 -0.19 1.04 0.57 120 -0.21 1.10 0.55 144 -0.19 1.13 0.57 168 -0.16 1.15 0.55 192 -0.18 1.18 0.54 216 -0.21 1.23 0.49 240 -0.19 1.25 0.47 264 -0.18 1.29 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 -0.02 0.63 0.59 0.58 0.58 48 0.08 0.01 0.71 0.66 0.68 0.66 72 0.12 0.05 0.76 0.73 0.65 0.64 96 0.09 0.81 0.64 120 0.12 0.86 0.64 144 0.12 0.91 0.60 168 0.13 0.96 0.55 192 0.13 1.00 0.52 216 0.14 1.03 0.51 240 0.13 1.04 0.51 264 0.11 1.07 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.42 3.39 3.49 48 -0.59 -0.48 3.73 3.80 72 -0.67 -0.47 4.06 4.03 96 -0.46 4.21 120 -0.44 4.40 144 -0.45 4.59 168 -0.58 4.88 192 -0.59 5.20 216 -0.67 5.37 240 -0.70 5.66 264 -0.80 5.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.98 3.88 3.92 48 -1.05 -1.14 4.21 4.27 72 -1.26 -1.30 4.65 4.66 96 -1.40 5.13 120 -1.45 5.44 144 -1.48 5.93 168 -1.45 6.35 192 -1.44 6.91 216 -1.50 7.25 240 -1.53 7.46 264 -1.46 7.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.68 5.08 4.94 48 -0.88 -0.73 5.98 5.97 72 -0.98 -0.63 6.73 6.97 96 -0.54 7.67 120 -0.40 8.37 144 -0.46 9.04 168 -0.41 9.61 192 -0.44 10.12 216 -0.55 10.34 240 -0.61 10.52 264 -0.59 11.02 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.65 -1.52 9.35 8.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.28 -0.53 12.36 11.79 0.98 0.98 72 1.37 0.70 17.05 17.09 0.96 0.96 96 1.87 23.83 0.93 120 2.60 31.80 0.87 144 2.77 40.26 0.81 168 3.92 46.77 0.76 192 5.70 54.16 0.69 216 8.63 59.94 0.62 240 10.64 65.82 0.56 264 11.26 68.39 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 335 12 UTC = 341 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.48 -3.85 11.44 11.39 0.98 0.98 48 -3.01 -2.59 15.06 15.39 0.98 0.98 72 -1.14 -1.12 21.84 22.82 0.97 0.97 96 -0.44 33.17 0.93 120 0.20 44.67 0.89 144 0.25 58.08 0.82 168 1.41 69.38 0.75 192 2.83 80.85 0.67 216 5.04 90.67 0.58 240 7.59 99.00 0.52 264 8.40 101.88 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 351 12 UTC = 354 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.35 -6.59 17.66 18.19 0.98 0.98 48 -6.64 -5.99 23.91 24.58 0.98 0.98 72 -5.56 -5.21 34.32 35.60 0.97 0.96 96 -5.82 51.39 0.93 120 -6.57 67.48 0.89 144 -7.42 87.22 0.83 168 -7.27 104.58 0.76 192 -6.74 120.81 0.68 216 -5.79 136.61 0.59 240 -3.74 148.97 0.53 264 -3.08 153.42 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 350 12 UTC = 354 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.43 1.55 1.55 0.90 0.90 48 -0.36 -0.38 1.72 1.71 0.92 0.92 72 -0.29 -0.32 1.97 1.95 0.91 0.91 96 -0.26 2.29 0.88 120 -0.18 2.67 0.85 144 -0.10 3.17 0.79 168 -0.03 3.64 0.74 192 0.01 4.12 0.66 216 0.05 4.53 0.60 240 0.12 4.89 0.54 264 0.17 5.03 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 383 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.09 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 48 -0.12 -0.10 1.14 1.15 0.94 0.94 72 -0.15 -0.14 1.46 1.49 0.92 0.92 96 -0.20 1.88 0.88 120 -0.24 2.29 0.84 144 -0.29 2.77 0.78 168 -0.33 3.19 0.71 192 -0.37 3.63 0.64 216 -0.40 3.94 0.58 240 -0.39 4.24 0.52 264 -0.40 4.33 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 407 12 UTC = 413 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.30 1.25 1.27 0.91 0.91 48 0.28 0.30 1.55 1.55 0.90 0.90 72 0.26 0.31 1.91 1.93 0.87 0.87 96 0.31 2.30 0.82 120 0.25 2.64 0.78 144 0.23 2.94 0.74 168 0.21 3.21 0.70 192 0.21 3.41 0.66 216 0.20 3.56 0.63 240 0.17 3.75 0.59 264 0.21 3.81 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 409 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.71 3.64 3.70 48 -0.86 -0.76 4.15 4.16 72 -0.93 -0.81 4.91 4.84 96 -0.83 5.75 120 -0.83 6.65 144 -0.82 7.56 168 -0.87 8.23 192 -0.89 8.94 216 -0.96 9.39 240 -0.93 9.85 264 -0.89 10.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 367 12 UTC = 374 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.62 3.84 3.86 48 -0.76 -0.69 4.74 4.76 72 -0.81 -0.73 6.09 6.09 96 -0.75 7.61 120 -0.79 9.08 144 -0.84 10.70 168 -0.90 12.10 192 -1.07 13.32 216 -1.18 14.44 240 -1.35 15.20 264 -1.28 15.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 403 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.78 5.16 5.20 48 -1.03 -1.00 6.93 6.91 72 -1.09 -1.08 9.31 9.17 96 -1.14 11.82 120 -1.21 14.13 144 -1.19 16.93 168 -1.38 19.29 192 -1.52 21.46 216 -1.71 23.37 240 -1.95 24.93 264 -2.12 25.17 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 394 12 UTC = 401 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.56 9.30 10.29 0.98 0.97 48 0.43 0.37 12.15 14.53 0.98 0.97 72 0.68 -0.21 17.04 20.82 0.96 0.95 96 -1.45 28.56 0.92 120 -2.00 34.08 0.89 144 -4.26 41.01 0.84 168 -3.87 49.02 0.78 192 -2.07 56.81 0.73 216 -1.24 59.26 0.74 240 -3.16 62.18 0.68 264 -6.56 63.66 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.86 -7.96 13.42 14.31 0.98 0.98 48 -6.61 -6.81 17.76 19.08 0.98 0.98 72 -6.36 -6.79 25.04 28.16 0.97 0.96 96 -6.43 40.28 0.93 120 -6.91 50.95 0.89 144 -10.74 61.99 0.86 168 -10.71 73.91 0.80 192 -10.30 83.88 0.77 216 -9.84 88.75 0.78 240 -11.18 94.51 0.71 264 -12.19 97.91 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.58 -11.09 18.88 19.73 0.98 0.98 48 -8.41 -9.78 24.19 26.07 0.98 0.98 72 -8.14 -8.87 34.35 37.11 0.97 0.97 96 -7.80 53.22 0.94 120 -8.35 67.65 0.90 144 -13.41 83.60 0.87 168 -14.40 98.68 0.83 192 -12.36 112.09 0.80 216 -8.69 122.64 0.80 240 -7.43 131.81 0.74 264 -11.77 137.91 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.83 1.91 1.77 0.89 0.91 48 -0.95 -0.79 2.08 1.93 0.92 0.93 72 -0.94 -0.75 2.29 2.11 0.92 0.93 96 -0.62 2.56 0.91 120 -0.54 3.07 0.88 144 -0.55 3.41 0.85 168 -0.60 3.85 0.80 192 -0.83 4.29 0.75 216 -0.98 4.53 0.74 240 -0.93 4.95 0.70 264 -0.84 5.12 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.22 1.08 1.08 0.91 0.93 48 -0.14 -0.21 1.26 1.28 0.93 0.94 72 -0.11 -0.14 1.65 1.60 0.91 0.93 96 -0.10 2.12 0.88 120 -0.15 2.47 0.85 144 -0.28 2.92 0.82 168 -0.32 3.31 0.78 192 -0.30 3.57 0.75 216 -0.24 3.77 0.74 240 -0.10 3.98 0.71 264 -0.15 4.22 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.29 0.36 1.38 1.35 0.90 0.92 48 0.32 0.32 1.64 1.56 0.91 0.91 72 0.36 0.34 1.92 1.80 0.89 0.89 96 0.40 2.12 0.86 120 0.41 2.51 0.83 144 0.47 2.92 0.79 168 0.42 3.08 0.77 192 0.47 3.31 0.71 216 0.58 3.36 0.68 240 0.66 3.54 0.65 264 0.38 3.77 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.56 4.66 4.54 48 -0.66 -0.57 5.20 5.07 72 -0.67 -0.61 5.89 5.74 96 -0.57 6.61 120 -0.44 7.47 144 -0.53 8.23 168 -0.42 9.03 192 -0.11 9.70 216 -0.16 10.51 240 -0.24 10.96 264 -0.49 11.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.59 4.79 5.09 48 -0.49 -0.52 5.75 6.11 72 -0.53 -0.54 7.37 7.60 96 -0.51 9.51 120 -0.54 11.20 144 -0.64 12.50 168 -0.45 13.85 192 -0.28 14.83 216 -0.45 16.05 240 -0.14 16.88 264 -0.64 17.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.55 5.77 6.27 48 -0.57 -0.50 7.34 7.76 72 -0.71 -0.60 9.32 9.66 96 -0.64 12.08 120 -0.72 14.44 144 -0.49 16.78 168 -0.32 18.89 192 0.18 20.40 216 0.84 22.78 240 1.03 23.73 264 0.63 24.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------