VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY OCTOBER 2013 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.15 0.85 0.86 0.99 0.99 16.5 17.2 48 0.25 0.26 1.52 1.52 0.98 0.98 25.5 26.4 72 0.37 0.36 2.22 2.26 0.96 0.95 33.4 34.5 96 0.46 3.16 0.91 43.1 120 0.52 4.21 0.84 51.7 144 0.61 5.29 0.75 59.3 168 0.62 6.45 0.62 67.1 192 0.65 7.40 0.51 73.7 216 0.69 8.01 0.42 77.6 240 0.72 8.60 0.34 80.9 264 0.80 9.08 0.26 83.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.37 6.40 6.46 1.00 1.00 10.4 10.5 48 0.82 0.79 12.95 12.97 0.99 0.99 18.5 18.6 72 1.27 1.19 20.38 20.89 0.97 0.97 26.2 26.5 96 1.57 30.79 0.93 34.3 120 1.75 42.70 0.87 42.3 144 1.90 54.55 0.80 49.3 168 1.64 68.61 0.68 56.7 192 1.84 81.35 0.56 63.2 216 1.72 91.07 0.46 67.7 240 1.39 98.93 0.36 71.1 264 1.14 104.02 0.28 73.0 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.83 0.87 8.90 9.14 1.00 1.00 8.6 8.7 48 1.43 1.32 18.05 18.03 0.99 0.99 15.2 15.2 72 1.52 1.40 28.69 29.37 0.98 0.97 22.0 22.3 96 1.13 42.70 0.94 29.1 120 0.54 59.13 0.89 36.3 144 0.14 76.13 0.82 43.2 168 -0.46 96.26 0.71 50.3 192 -0.86 116.60 0.59 56.9 216 -1.99 131.42 0.48 61.4 240 -4.03 143.07 0.37 65.1 264 -5.88 152.09 0.29 67.2 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.46 0.47 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 -0.02 0.85 0.85 0.97 0.97 72 -0.04 -0.04 1.25 1.28 0.94 0.94 96 -0.08 1.71 0.89 120 -0.11 2.20 0.82 144 -0.14 2.70 0.72 168 -0.17 3.23 0.61 192 -0.19 3.73 0.48 216 -0.24 4.09 0.37 240 -0.32 4.35 0.28 264 -0.39 4.56 0.22 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.06 0.59 0.60 0.98 0.98 48 0.08 0.08 0.99 0.99 0.95 0.96 72 0.09 0.08 1.38 1.41 0.91 0.91 96 0.08 1.83 0.84 120 0.07 2.26 0.75 144 0.05 2.63 0.66 168 0.04 3.00 0.55 192 0.03 3.27 0.45 216 -0.01 3.48 0.37 240 -0.07 3.69 0.29 264 -0.12 3.78 0.24 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.06 2.08 2.08 48 -0.13 -0.12 3.65 3.67 72 -0.20 -0.18 5.16 5.25 96 -0.24 6.83 120 -0.28 8.56 144 -0.30 10.08 168 -0.30 11.77 192 -0.32 13.25 216 -0.39 14.34 240 -0.47 15.15 264 -0.52 15.58 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.23 3.16 3.20 48 -0.41 -0.36 5.34 5.31 72 -0.50 -0.50 7.62 7.70 96 -0.58 10.03 120 -0.66 12.60 144 -0.73 15.09 168 -0.71 17.66 192 -0.72 20.20 216 -0.82 21.98 240 -0.96 23.45 264 -1.01 24.40 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.80 3.03 2.99 0.98 0.98 25.3 25.6 48 -0.91 -1.02 4.26 4.23 0.95 0.95 34.5 34.7 72 -1.11 -1.28 5.29 5.55 0.92 0.91 40.5 40.7 96 -1.46 6.73 0.87 45.4 120 -1.47 7.87 0.82 49.3 144 -1.20 9.21 0.75 52.8 168 -0.91 10.54 0.68 55.8 192 -0.91 11.75 0.61 58.2 216 -0.93 12.82 0.56 59.8 240 -0.74 13.62 0.51 61.2 264 -1.01 14.58 0.44 62.9 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.33 1.10 4.25 4.19 0.98 0.98 22.0 21.9 48 1.68 1.38 6.29 6.21 0.96 0.96 30.7 30.8 72 1.58 1.26 8.10 7.88 0.93 0.93 36.7 36.7 96 0.72 9.41 0.90 41.3 120 -0.10 11.17 0.86 45.4 144 -0.55 12.89 0.82 48.7 168 -0.87 14.91 0.76 52.2 192 -1.18 16.62 0.70 55.3 216 -1.62 18.43 0.64 58.5 240 -2.01 20.55 0.55 61.9 264 -2.44 22.18 0.48 64.4 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.04 0.38 0.40 0.96 0.97 48 0.17 0.17 0.65 0.65 0.90 0.92 72 0.25 0.24 0.84 0.83 0.84 0.87 96 0.27 0.97 0.82 120 0.26 1.06 0.78 144 0.24 1.15 0.74 168 0.24 1.25 0.69 192 0.25 1.34 0.65 216 0.24 1.39 0.63 240 0.22 1.43 0.60 264 0.19 1.52 0.56 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.04 0.31 0.31 0.93 0.93 48 0.01 -0.02 0.45 0.44 0.85 0.84 72 0.04 0.00 0.55 0.55 0.78 0.76 96 0.01 0.63 0.68 120 0.01 0.69 0.61 144 -0.01 0.74 0.56 168 -0.03 0.78 0.50 192 -0.04 0.83 0.42 216 -0.05 0.88 0.36 240 -0.06 0.91 0.32 264 -0.06 0.93 0.30 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 1.53 1.53 48 -0.08 -0.08 2.35 2.33 72 -0.14 -0.15 2.91 2.87 96 -0.23 3.29 120 -0.32 3.69 144 -0.42 4.04 168 -0.48 4.34 192 -0.48 4.63 216 -0.49 4.79 240 -0.46 4.97 264 -0.39 5.16 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.37 3.01 3.03 48 -0.56 -0.58 4.55 4.55 72 -0.72 -0.75 5.61 5.63 96 -0.83 6.43 120 -0.86 7.11 144 -0.87 7.81 168 -0.88 8.47 192 -0.94 9.06 216 -1.00 9.68 240 -0.91 10.32 264 -0.87 10.86 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 1.01 0.98 0.99 0.99 14.1 13.8 48 -0.03 -0.03 1.91 1.90 0.98 0.98 24.1 24.0 72 -0.09 -0.07 2.93 2.94 0.95 0.95 33.0 33.2 96 -0.13 4.21 0.89 41.6 120 -0.20 5.64 0.80 49.5 144 -0.32 6.89 0.71 56.1 168 -0.35 8.07 0.60 62.0 192 -0.39 9.12 0.50 66.8 216 -0.44 9.79 0.42 69.6 240 -0.51 10.25 0.37 71.1 264 -0.54 10.76 0.30 72.9 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.63 0.49 9.03 8.97 1.00 1.00 10.9 10.8 48 0.72 0.68 17.98 18.30 0.98 0.98 19.4 19.7 72 0.55 0.56 28.59 28.78 0.96 0.96 27.4 27.5 96 0.21 40.84 0.92 34.9 120 -0.28 54.74 0.85 41.9 144 -0.77 69.05 0.76 48.5 168 -0.46 82.75 0.67 54.1 192 -0.23 95.67 0.56 58.8 216 -0.50 105.91 0.46 61.6 240 -1.21 113.16 0.39 63.6 264 -1.51 118.86 0.32 66.1 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.06 0.84 10.96 10.99 1.00 1.00 8.5 8.4 48 1.58 1.44 22.04 22.38 0.99 0.99 14.8 15.0 72 1.84 1.66 35.31 35.55 0.96 0.96 21.2 21.4 96 1.57 50.15 0.93 27.7 120 1.20 67.23 0.87 34.1 144 0.82 86.83 0.79 40.5 168 0.77 104.94 0.69 45.8 192 0.94 122.20 0.59 50.5 216 0.67 136.93 0.48 53.8 240 0.00 149.15 0.40 56.6 264 -0.63 155.87 0.34 58.9 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.54 0.54 0.99 0.99 48 0.04 0.04 1.01 1.02 0.96 0.96 72 0.06 0.05 1.50 1.51 0.92 0.91 96 0.06 1.98 0.85 120 0.06 2.43 0.77 144 0.08 2.95 0.67 168 0.10 3.39 0.57 192 0.13 3.77 0.47 216 0.13 4.04 0.40 240 0.14 4.30 0.32 264 0.10 4.50 0.26 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.63 0.63 0.99 0.99 48 0.02 0.01 1.07 1.11 0.96 0.96 72 0.03 0.02 1.54 1.56 0.92 0.91 96 0.03 1.99 0.86 120 0.02 2.42 0.79 144 0.01 2.85 0.71 168 -0.03 3.25 0.62 192 -0.05 3.60 0.53 216 -0.07 3.82 0.46 240 -0.05 3.97 0.42 264 -0.07 4.15 0.36 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 2.59 2.56 48 -0.04 -0.05 4.65 4.74 72 -0.03 -0.03 6.61 6.67 96 -0.03 8.53 120 -0.02 10.41 144 -0.02 12.26 168 -0.03 13.94 192 0.03 15.38 216 0.09 16.35 240 0.13 17.09 264 0.06 17.68 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.08 3.33 3.35 48 -0.13 -0.16 5.72 5.85 72 -0.16 -0.20 8.15 8.24 96 -0.25 10.70 120 -0.29 13.35 144 -0.38 16.16 168 -0.40 18.57 192 -0.39 20.70 216 -0.34 22.41 240 -0.25 24.07 264 -0.40 24.84 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.23 -1.94 7.08 7.01 0.98 0.98 48 -0.26 1.38 10.61 10.77 0.98 0.98 72 3.89 4.15 15.81 15.37 0.96 0.96 96 3.63 20.63 0.94 120 3.20 28.49 0.89 144 2.24 36.97 0.82 168 -0.03 44.93 0.74 192 -2.02 51.19 0.71 216 -7.68 55.43 0.68 240 -8.84 62.46 0.58 264 -5.69 65.36 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.76 -6.95 11.92 11.30 0.99 0.99 48 -5.25 -3.98 15.93 15.51 0.98 0.98 72 -0.94 -1.34 22.13 21.42 0.97 0.98 96 -1.70 29.68 0.96 120 -2.78 42.90 0.92 144 -3.79 57.22 0.84 168 -6.03 73.14 0.77 192 -8.44 85.34 0.72 216 -12.83 96.79 0.66 240 -13.58 108.86 0.58 264 -10.78 115.01 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.96 -10.86 16.95 16.76 0.99 0.99 48 -8.95 -8.55 23.10 22.17 0.98 0.98 72 -4.57 -5.83 32.40 32.11 0.98 0.98 96 -5.93 43.69 0.96 120 -8.84 62.05 0.92 144 -9.75 84.96 0.85 168 -14.41 109.14 0.78 192 -20.40 130.73 0.69 216 -25.87 149.06 0.63 240 -27.55 160.82 0.59 264 -23.25 169.77 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.62 1.44 1.60 0.91 0.92 48 -0.52 -0.60 1.61 1.74 0.93 0.93 72 -0.43 -0.57 1.89 1.91 0.92 0.93 96 -0.51 2.26 0.91 120 -0.46 2.77 0.87 144 -0.52 3.28 0.82 168 -0.59 4.11 0.72 192 -0.55 4.65 0.65 216 -0.47 5.16 0.61 240 -0.39 5.68 0.54 264 -0.36 5.96 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.22 0.90 0.89 0.94 0.94 48 -0.21 -0.25 1.16 1.13 0.95 0.95 72 -0.22 -0.27 1.49 1.47 0.94 0.94 96 -0.27 1.80 0.92 120 -0.37 2.32 0.87 144 -0.40 3.00 0.79 168 -0.45 3.62 0.71 192 -0.59 4.14 0.63 216 -0.59 4.60 0.59 240 -0.51 4.66 0.58 264 -0.55 4.98 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.20 1.01 1.04 0.94 0.93 48 0.22 0.21 1.28 1.28 0.93 0.94 72 0.25 0.25 1.55 1.55 0.91 0.90 96 0.31 1.85 0.88 120 0.30 2.31 0.82 144 0.25 2.68 0.77 168 0.13 3.08 0.69 192 -0.03 3.29 0.67 216 -0.12 3.49 0.64 240 -0.29 3.71 0.58 264 -0.08 3.92 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.73 3.70 3.81 48 -0.84 -0.84 4.17 4.30 72 -0.88 -0.83 4.91 4.87 96 -0.98 5.65 120 -1.12 6.85 144 -0.89 8.19 168 -0.84 9.31 192 -0.78 9.84 216 -0.56 10.27 240 -0.57 10.94 264 -0.52 11.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.70 4.03 4.00 48 -0.81 -0.90 5.11 5.04 72 -0.84 -0.99 6.28 6.18 96 -0.96 7.62 120 -1.07 9.63 144 -0.88 12.00 168 -0.82 14.19 192 -0.78 15.32 216 -0.78 16.14 240 -0.56 17.46 264 -0.77 18.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.94 5.32 5.55 48 -1.00 -1.12 6.91 7.14 72 -0.98 -1.25 9.04 8.98 96 -1.29 11.24 120 -1.23 14.23 144 -1.30 18.41 168 -1.41 21.48 192 -1.66 24.10 216 -1.66 26.08 240 -1.69 28.02 264 -1.54 29.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.15 -2.40 7.49 7.84 0.98 0.97 48 -1.45 -2.87 10.75 10.61 0.98 0.98 72 -1.70 -3.68 16.20 16.06 0.96 0.96 96 -4.69 22.72 0.94 120 -3.45 30.99 0.88 144 1.62 38.55 0.85 168 5.73 47.36 0.80 192 5.83 57.82 0.71 216 -0.62 68.56 0.63 240 -4.71 73.76 0.55 264 -1.00 73.46 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.45 -6.48 11.48 11.35 0.98 0.98 48 -5.42 -6.82 15.86 15.88 0.98 0.98 72 -4.54 -6.73 22.92 22.50 0.96 0.97 96 -6.69 31.81 0.95 120 -7.73 46.44 0.88 144 -4.40 58.24 0.86 168 0.26 73.48 0.78 192 0.34 93.13 0.66 216 -6.31 106.14 0.56 240 -11.17 110.95 0.54 264 -11.99 117.37 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.36 -8.92 15.50 15.80 0.99 0.99 48 -6.72 -8.53 22.69 22.68 0.98 0.98 72 -4.52 -7.93 32.34 32.12 0.97 0.97 96 -6.16 44.95 0.95 120 -9.62 66.90 0.89 144 -10.12 85.37 0.86 168 -3.71 107.76 0.78 192 -7.65 132.78 0.70 216 -11.71 153.44 0.58 240 -16.28 158.35 0.57 264 -17.92 173.04 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.04 1.32 1.30 0.88 0.87 48 -0.15 -0.04 1.48 1.44 0.91 0.91 72 -0.04 0.05 1.71 1.72 0.89 0.89 96 0.14 2.12 0.87 120 -0.01 2.61 0.83 144 -0.13 3.01 0.81 168 -0.13 3.38 0.79 192 -0.06 4.11 0.73 216 -0.12 4.69 0.65 240 -0.16 4.95 0.60 264 -0.47 5.27 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.15 0.81 0.81 0.93 0.94 48 -0.06 -0.11 1.06 1.04 0.94 0.95 72 0.02 -0.04 1.37 1.31 0.92 0.92 96 0.02 1.66 0.91 120 -0.12 2.20 0.86 144 -0.29 2.64 0.81 168 -0.18 3.13 0.76 192 -0.27 3.75 0.69 216 -0.20 4.21 0.58 240 -0.27 4.30 0.58 264 -0.43 4.58 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.32 1.11 1.08 0.90 0.90 48 0.48 0.38 1.39 1.34 0.89 0.89 72 0.54 0.41 1.68 1.61 0.85 0.86 96 0.49 1.90 0.81 120 0.52 2.32 0.73 144 0.40 2.38 0.73 168 0.39 2.67 0.69 192 0.18 3.03 0.62 216 0.16 3.13 0.60 240 0.24 3.24 0.55 264 0.21 3.37 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.72 3.79 3.88 48 -0.58 -0.67 4.24 4.30 72 -0.59 -0.74 5.02 4.92 96 -0.62 5.64 120 -0.67 6.82 144 -1.05 7.30 168 -1.34 8.44 192 -1.43 9.58 216 -1.46 10.35 240 -1.39 11.00 264 -1.74 11.23 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.52 3.95 3.92 48 -0.47 -0.58 4.94 4.93 72 -0.40 -0.63 6.04 6.15 96 -0.86 7.53 120 -1.06 9.49 144 -1.44 11.11 168 -1.88 12.78 192 -2.24 15.25 216 -2.42 17.19 240 -2.14 18.20 264 -2.63 18.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.65 5.51 5.52 48 -0.53 -0.62 7.13 7.14 72 -0.46 -0.73 9.33 9.15 96 -1.05 11.40 120 -1.42 14.57 144 -1.75 17.65 168 -2.16 20.47 192 -3.05 23.90 216 -3.17 28.06 240 -2.95 28.77 264 -3.03 30.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.42 1.44 10.23 8.92 0.98 0.98 48 3.15 2.77 12.31 11.70 0.98 0.98 72 4.31 4.31 16.06 15.75 0.97 0.96 96 5.65 19.70 0.94 120 7.30 24.96 0.92 144 9.09 30.86 0.87 168 10.28 36.78 0.81 192 9.81 43.98 0.73 216 12.12 46.89 0.68 240 15.01 49.88 0.64 264 14.66 53.64 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 91 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 0.62 10.69 10.73 0.98 0.98 48 -0.14 2.26 13.64 14.10 0.98 0.98 72 0.03 3.49 18.12 19.67 0.97 0.97 96 3.43 24.87 0.95 120 3.72 32.18 0.92 144 5.26 40.50 0.87 168 6.19 51.43 0.80 192 5.94 61.32 0.73 216 4.32 69.33 0.64 240 6.06 74.84 0.63 264 5.45 79.15 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 102 12 UTC = 104 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.47 0.08 17.29 17.26 0.98 0.98 48 -3.38 2.09 21.45 22.81 0.98 0.98 72 -6.07 1.79 28.48 29.86 0.97 0.97 96 -1.52 36.98 0.95 120 -4.28 46.55 0.92 144 -3.87 58.77 0.87 168 -3.83 73.88 0.80 192 -7.11 89.11 0.73 216 -11.81 103.91 0.69 240 -14.64 114.45 0.66 264 -18.38 118.81 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 101 12 UTC = 103 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.71 1.94 1.85 0.92 0.93 48 -0.70 -0.75 2.08 2.01 0.93 0.94 72 -0.67 -0.70 2.25 2.21 0.92 0.92 96 -0.69 2.47 0.90 120 -0.74 2.79 0.87 144 -0.71 3.12 0.84 168 -0.68 3.59 0.79 192 -0.62 4.18 0.73 216 -0.73 4.66 0.67 240 -0.67 4.92 0.67 264 -0.64 5.04 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 127 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.07 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.95 48 -0.15 -0.07 1.16 1.16 0.96 0.96 72 -0.27 -0.12 1.42 1.47 0.94 0.94 96 -0.26 1.73 0.92 120 -0.37 2.04 0.89 144 -0.38 2.40 0.84 168 -0.42 2.87 0.77 192 -0.52 3.45 0.69 216 -0.73 3.89 0.64 240 -0.88 4.26 0.59 264 -1.03 4.35 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 143 12 UTC = 144 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.34 1.24 1.27 0.91 0.91 48 0.29 0.40 1.52 1.53 0.92 0.92 72 0.24 0.37 1.76 1.86 0.90 0.90 96 0.34 2.14 0.86 120 0.29 2.46 0.82 144 0.20 2.76 0.76 168 0.08 3.04 0.71 192 0.03 3.41 0.65 216 0.02 3.71 0.59 240 -0.12 3.89 0.57 264 -0.25 4.06 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.66 3.82 3.64 48 -0.90 -0.71 4.20 4.06 72 -1.06 -0.82 4.75 4.66 96 -0.85 5.23 120 -0.77 5.96 144 -0.84 6.58 168 -0.89 7.40 192 -0.87 8.20 216 -1.12 8.57 240 -1.36 8.67 264 -1.52 9.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 123 12 UTC = 127 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.61 3.90 3.96 48 -0.80 -0.58 4.80 4.73 72 -0.86 -0.63 5.82 5.83 96 -0.72 6.84 120 -0.75 8.03 144 -0.81 9.14 168 -0.83 10.48 192 -0.78 11.97 216 -0.75 12.87 240 -0.84 13.66 264 -1.06 13.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.56 4.76 4.81 48 -0.90 -0.78 6.10 6.17 72 -0.99 -0.94 7.62 7.74 96 -1.04 9.37 120 -1.21 11.18 144 -1.48 12.94 168 -1.36 15.14 192 -1.19 17.76 216 -1.10 19.45 240 -1.21 20.78 264 -1.51 21.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.42 -4.91 7.60 10.18 0.98 0.96 48 -3.46 -4.31 10.12 12.23 0.98 0.98 72 -4.39 -4.50 12.85 15.54 0.97 0.96 96 -5.52 21.48 0.93 120 -5.08 27.13 0.89 144 -6.80 30.68 0.88 168 -5.48 42.25 0.82 192 -5.02 49.71 0.76 216 -4.00 50.07 0.76 240 -4.33 59.19 0.65 264 -7.74 57.24 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.82 -9.45 11.39 15.37 0.98 0.97 48 -7.70 -8.11 14.59 17.89 0.98 0.97 72 -9.64 -9.25 19.32 23.42 0.97 0.96 96 -11.17 27.78 0.94 120 -10.88 34.11 0.91 144 -12.77 43.10 0.89 168 -13.03 55.65 0.83 192 -12.24 72.88 0.76 216 -8.47 75.56 0.70 240 -5.24 87.75 0.60 264 -12.11 85.28 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.79 -10.23 13.76 18.62 0.98 0.97 48 -7.85 -9.29 17.55 21.84 0.98 0.98 72 -10.46 -10.99 23.98 29.16 0.98 0.95 96 -13.00 34.91 0.95 120 -12.47 40.53 0.94 144 -14.62 55.70 0.90 168 -20.17 68.68 0.87 192 -19.25 93.15 0.74 216 -13.58 99.66 0.70 240 -6.52 116.50 0.62 264 -11.34 111.97 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.36 1.47 1.27 0.91 0.88 48 -0.50 -0.27 1.65 1.35 0.93 0.92 72 -0.56 -0.25 1.88 1.64 0.90 0.90 96 -0.24 1.82 0.85 120 -0.27 2.04 0.87 144 -0.34 2.43 0.85 168 -0.58 2.86 0.73 192 -0.59 3.57 0.69 216 -0.40 3.85 0.60 240 -0.25 3.86 0.55 264 -0.36 4.25 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.00 1.07 1.05 0.90 0.91 48 0.05 -0.02 1.24 1.22 0.91 0.93 72 0.03 -0.11 1.47 1.60 0.90 0.86 96 -0.12 1.81 0.83 120 -0.11 1.96 0.86 144 -0.21 2.38 0.80 168 -0.26 2.57 0.77 192 -0.14 3.34 0.66 216 0.05 3.63 0.56 240 0.34 3.64 0.53 264 0.03 3.68 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.32 1.16 1.38 0.91 0.85 48 0.28 0.28 1.32 1.48 0.92 0.92 72 0.24 0.32 1.54 1.82 0.90 0.86 96 0.38 2.03 0.88 120 0.39 2.17 0.83 144 0.43 2.51 0.83 168 0.23 2.94 0.79 192 0.13 3.72 0.73 216 -0.21 4.11 0.61 240 0.03 3.98 0.62 264 0.48 4.12 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.26 3.94 3.97 48 -0.21 -0.20 4.45 4.37 72 -0.28 -0.20 4.86 4.96 96 -0.04 5.57 120 0.13 6.26 144 0.04 7.12 168 0.07 8.12 192 0.07 9.17 216 0.26 9.30 240 0.03 9.74 264 0.38 9.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 20 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.13 4.30 4.31 48 -0.25 -0.09 5.07 5.05 72 -0.35 -0.04 5.97 6.14 96 0.08 7.26 120 0.26 8.12 144 0.14 9.52 168 0.39 11.41 192 0.43 12.89 216 0.84 13.91 240 0.63 14.49 264 0.91 15.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.53 5.28 5.18 48 -0.57 -0.69 6.08 6.11 72 -0.74 -0.65 7.31 7.39 96 -0.80 9.07 120 -0.63 10.52 144 -0.68 12.48 168 -0.30 15.38 192 -0.22 17.64 216 0.18 19.54 240 -0.57 20.13 264 0.75 22.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.48 -4.29 10.29 10.80 0.72 0.66 48 -3.58 -4.53 10.81 11.35 0.81 0.77 72 -4.06 -5.33 11.49 12.30 0.80 0.78 96 -5.76 13.30 0.75 120 -5.47 14.03 0.72 144 -4.99 15.09 0.67 168 -4.85 16.16 0.60 192 -5.00 17.19 0.59 216 -5.33 17.96 0.57 240 -5.28 18.41 0.56 264 -6.00 19.49 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.16 -6.02 11.85 12.82 0.61 0.59 48 -4.40 -5.28 11.93 12.73 0.75 0.74 72 -4.88 -5.51 12.46 13.12 0.77 0.76 96 -6.21 13.84 0.75 120 -6.43 14.44 0.73 144 -6.53 15.30 0.69 168 -6.61 16.19 0.65 192 -7.18 17.11 0.63 216 -7.62 18.11 0.61 240 -7.86 18.91 0.59 264 -8.51 20.07 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.25 -12.02 17.23 18.91 0.59 0.60 48 -10.80 -11.42 17.24 18.87 0.75 0.74 72 -10.91 -11.44 17.86 19.20 0.79 0.79 96 -11.92 20.00 0.77 120 -12.30 20.94 0.74 144 -12.54 21.80 0.71 168 -12.98 22.94 0.70 192 -13.73 24.09 0.67 216 -14.27 25.36 0.65 240 -14.89 26.97 0.63 264 -15.82 28.63 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.03 1.01 1.03 0.53 0.44 48 0.10 0.13 1.07 1.09 0.61 0.54 72 0.17 0.21 1.14 1.15 0.61 0.57 96 0.23 1.17 0.62 120 0.22 1.19 0.63 144 0.19 1.20 0.64 168 0.18 1.24 0.65 192 0.14 1.27 0.65 216 0.13 1.30 0.61 240 0.09 1.30 0.61 264 0.09 1.39 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.21 0.85 0.83 0.55 0.50 48 -0.27 -0.23 0.91 0.87 0.63 0.59 72 -0.30 -0.23 0.95 0.92 0.66 0.62 96 -0.25 0.96 0.62 120 -0.29 1.01 0.61 144 -0.32 1.06 0.59 168 -0.35 1.10 0.58 192 -0.36 1.14 0.55 216 -0.39 1.20 0.51 240 -0.41 1.22 0.52 264 -0.41 1.25 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.07 0.62 0.57 0.57 0.55 48 -0.02 -0.04 0.68 0.62 0.62 0.62 72 0.02 0.02 0.73 0.68 0.62 0.63 96 0.05 0.72 0.62 120 0.06 0.77 0.60 144 0.04 0.82 0.58 168 0.03 0.84 0.60 192 0.02 0.87 0.59 216 0.01 0.91 0.56 240 0.00 0.95 0.55 264 -0.02 0.97 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.43 3.40 3.45 48 -0.59 -0.55 3.68 3.80 72 -0.70 -0.61 4.04 4.06 96 -0.70 4.32 120 -0.75 4.73 144 -0.87 5.07 168 -1.00 5.29 192 -1.02 5.54 216 -1.06 5.83 240 -1.04 5.99 264 -1.04 6.09 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.63 3.74 3.62 48 -0.88 -0.74 4.13 3.99 72 -0.96 -0.83 4.46 4.29 96 -0.87 4.70 120 -0.90 5.11 144 -0.95 5.47 168 -1.06 5.73 192 -1.09 6.16 216 -1.23 6.53 240 -1.34 6.96 264 -1.29 7.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.89 4.79 4.60 48 -0.96 -0.97 5.71 5.48 72 -1.15 -1.08 6.26 6.21 96 -1.24 6.74 120 -1.31 7.24 144 -1.31 7.82 168 -1.27 8.32 192 -1.23 8.90 216 -1.37 9.52 240 -1.08 10.28 264 -0.83 10.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.78 8.73 8.50 0.98 0.98 48 0.57 0.49 11.93 11.78 0.98 0.98 72 1.93 1.63 16.91 16.87 0.97 0.97 96 2.01 22.96 0.95 120 2.70 31.06 0.90 144 4.21 39.09 0.86 168 4.97 48.44 0.80 192 5.00 56.34 0.74 216 3.60 61.81 0.69 240 3.14 67.25 0.63 264 4.15 71.10 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 338 12 UTC = 339 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.22 -3.49 11.75 11.65 0.99 0.99 48 -3.00 -2.36 16.03 16.09 0.98 0.98 72 -1.82 -1.22 22.87 22.64 0.97 0.97 96 -1.35 31.51 0.95 120 -1.40 44.02 0.92 144 -0.22 56.93 0.87 168 0.24 71.36 0.81 192 0.12 85.28 0.73 216 -2.19 96.39 0.67 240 -2.70 104.16 0.63 264 -2.56 111.06 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 354 12 UTC = 353 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.19 -5.23 17.40 17.80 0.99 0.99 48 -5.24 -4.16 23.57 24.02 0.98 0.98 72 -4.50 -3.16 33.26 33.37 0.97 0.97 96 -3.92 45.39 0.96 120 -5.96 63.12 0.92 144 -5.71 82.43 0.87 168 -5.91 102.43 0.81 192 -8.76 124.05 0.74 216 -11.92 142.09 0.66 240 -14.20 152.02 0.63 264 -15.27 162.19 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 351 12 UTC = 352 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.51 1.63 1.65 0.92 0.92 48 -0.50 -0.53 1.80 1.82 0.93 0.93 72 -0.46 -0.50 2.04 2.05 0.92 0.92 96 -0.48 2.39 0.91 120 -0.49 2.81 0.88 144 -0.49 3.24 0.85 168 -0.49 3.79 0.79 192 -0.47 4.37 0.72 216 -0.50 4.88 0.65 240 -0.45 5.22 0.63 264 -0.46 5.48 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 389 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.11 0.93 0.92 0.95 0.95 48 -0.13 -0.12 1.17 1.16 0.96 0.96 72 -0.17 -0.13 1.51 1.51 0.94 0.94 96 -0.18 1.87 0.92 120 -0.25 2.38 0.88 144 -0.28 2.90 0.83 168 -0.33 3.43 0.77 192 -0.40 4.01 0.69 216 -0.48 4.46 0.62 240 -0.52 4.72 0.60 264 -0.64 4.93 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 413 12 UTC = 411 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.33 0.34 1.22 1.24 0.93 0.93 48 0.37 0.38 1.50 1.50 0.93 0.93 72 0.38 0.38 1.81 1.82 0.90 0.91 96 0.41 2.18 0.87 120 0.38 2.60 0.82 144 0.31 2.92 0.78 168 0.27 3.25 0.73 192 0.18 3.58 0.68 216 0.14 3.78 0.64 240 0.05 3.96 0.61 264 0.08 4.13 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 408 12 UTC = 404 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.63 3.77 3.76 48 -0.77 -0.69 4.23 4.23 72 -0.83 -0.75 4.93 4.87 96 -0.79 5.61 120 -0.77 6.63 144 -0.79 7.54 168 -0.90 8.57 192 -0.92 9.42 216 -0.99 9.87 240 -1.10 10.24 264 -1.19 10.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 373 12 UTC = 374 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.60 3.92 3.94 48 -0.70 -0.67 4.96 4.92 72 -0.76 -0.74 6.14 6.14 96 -0.80 7.51 120 -0.85 9.20 144 -0.90 10.82 168 -1.00 12.70 192 -1.07 14.31 216 -1.14 15.37 240 -1.12 16.31 264 -1.35 16.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 401 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.65 4.99 5.03 48 -0.82 -0.83 6.57 6.61 72 -0.91 -1.00 8.65 8.53 96 -1.10 10.69 120 -1.20 13.30 144 -1.39 16.08 168 -1.44 18.74 192 -1.65 21.58 216 -1.68 23.88 240 -1.78 25.18 264 -1.92 26.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 399 12 UTC = 398 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.99 8.80 9.77 0.97 0.97 48 -0.92 -1.32 11.56 12.71 0.97 0.97 72 -1.49 -2.20 14.56 17.34 0.96 0.95 96 -4.13 23.38 0.93 120 -3.37 30.16 0.90 144 -3.77 36.08 0.87 168 -2.72 44.70 0.80 192 -1.58 52.12 0.74 216 -2.39 53.79 0.73 240 -5.10 57.85 0.70 264 -7.74 63.47 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.11 -6.47 12.84 13.99 0.97 0.97 48 -6.33 -6.27 17.08 19.23 0.98 0.97 72 -7.27 -6.72 23.14 25.08 0.96 0.96 96 -8.27 33.12 0.94 120 -7.44 41.12 0.92 144 -6.04 50.24 0.88 168 -5.51 62.23 0.82 192 -4.08 76.76 0.74 216 -3.85 77.90 0.75 240 -5.07 82.61 0.72 264 -9.57 90.03 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.57 -9.30 17.18 19.09 0.97 0.97 48 -7.48 -8.80 22.52 25.53 0.98 0.97 72 -8.98 -9.57 30.06 33.73 0.97 0.96 96 -10.65 43.91 0.94 120 -10.98 52.97 0.93 144 -8.45 67.77 0.88 168 -12.32 83.73 0.83 192 -11.85 104.63 0.73 216 -12.21 109.97 0.74 240 -10.90 116.13 0.71 264 -13.98 124.45 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.62 1.72 1.64 0.91 0.89 48 -0.64 -0.56 1.88 1.76 0.93 0.92 72 -0.63 -0.50 2.08 2.01 0.91 0.91 96 -0.45 2.24 0.89 120 -0.44 2.59 0.87 144 -0.39 2.96 0.83 168 -0.44 3.24 0.81 192 -0.32 3.73 0.74 216 -0.32 4.11 0.69 240 -0.27 4.24 0.66 264 -0.35 4.53 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.11 1.05 0.99 0.91 0.92 48 -0.07 -0.12 1.25 1.20 0.93 0.93 72 -0.08 -0.10 1.51 1.47 0.91 0.91 96 -0.09 1.82 0.87 120 -0.09 2.09 0.85 144 -0.01 2.47 0.80 168 -0.19 2.77 0.77 192 -0.25 3.33 0.68 216 -0.18 3.56 0.66 240 0.01 3.63 0.64 264 -0.08 3.77 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.18 1.25 1.37 0.91 0.88 48 0.16 0.18 1.47 1.64 0.92 0.91 72 0.16 0.13 1.71 1.80 0.90 0.88 96 0.16 2.08 0.86 120 0.09 2.26 0.84 144 0.07 2.47 0.83 168 -0.01 2.81 0.79 192 -0.03 3.24 0.74 216 -0.24 3.45 0.69 240 -0.22 3.60 0.64 264 -0.09 3.84 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.69 4.45 4.40 48 -0.67 -0.73 4.87 4.89 72 -0.72 -0.68 5.34 5.47 96 -0.64 6.09 120 -0.65 7.04 144 -0.66 8.09 168 -0.64 8.96 192 -0.75 9.65 216 -0.69 9.96 240 -0.78 10.21 264 -0.53 10.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.34 4.68 4.54 48 -0.35 -0.28 5.53 5.50 72 -0.30 -0.09 6.65 6.72 96 -0.17 7.96 120 0.08 9.32 144 -0.11 10.60 168 -0.41 12.02 192 -0.39 13.09 216 -0.29 14.22 240 -0.35 14.54 264 -0.48 15.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.48 5.80 6.03 48 -0.49 -0.37 6.94 7.50 72 -0.45 -0.25 8.55 9.03 96 -0.42 10.56 120 -0.15 12.59 144 -0.14 14.92 168 -0.53 17.12 192 -0.62 19.13 216 -0.62 21.06 240 -1.07 22.16 264 -0.85 23.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 45 ---------------------------------------------------------