VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY NOVEMBER 2013 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.20 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.00 16.6 17.1 48 0.32 0.32 1.74 1.72 0.98 0.98 25.7 26.2 72 0.42 0.40 2.66 2.69 0.96 0.96 34.4 35.1 96 0.48 3.89 0.92 44.9 120 0.52 5.26 0.84 54.6 144 0.49 6.44 0.76 62.5 168 0.56 7.81 0.64 69.7 192 0.63 9.03 0.52 75.1 216 0.59 9.96 0.42 79.8 240 0.57 10.58 0.35 82.5 264 0.50 10.86 0.31 83.9 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.23 7.09 7.14 1.00 1.00 9.9 9.9 48 0.62 0.47 14.68 14.64 0.99 0.99 17.9 17.9 72 0.80 0.50 24.82 24.79 0.97 0.97 26.2 26.1 96 0.50 37.33 0.94 34.7 120 0.34 51.49 0.88 42.7 144 -0.19 65.06 0.80 49.6 168 -0.21 78.71 0.71 55.5 192 -0.20 93.33 0.59 61.4 216 -0.35 105.07 0.48 65.8 240 -0.26 115.11 0.37 69.5 264 -0.59 118.25 0.34 70.5 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.17 1.15 9.26 9.32 1.00 1.00 7.8 7.8 48 2.01 1.93 19.08 19.24 0.99 0.99 13.6 13.7 72 2.58 2.29 32.28 32.57 0.98 0.98 20.4 20.3 96 2.45 49.57 0.94 27.8 120 2.28 69.10 0.89 35.3 144 2.01 87.12 0.82 41.8 168 1.82 105.30 0.74 47.4 192 1.22 125.70 0.62 53.3 216 0.96 143.83 0.50 57.8 240 1.28 160.25 0.38 61.8 264 0.76 165.11 0.34 63.3 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.50 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 0.00 0.91 0.91 0.98 0.98 72 -0.01 -0.01 1.40 1.39 0.94 0.94 96 -0.02 1.99 0.88 120 -0.04 2.56 0.80 144 -0.04 3.02 0.73 168 -0.08 3.54 0.63 192 -0.10 4.06 0.51 216 -0.09 4.50 0.39 240 -0.09 4.85 0.29 264 -0.09 4.99 0.24 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.07 0.63 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 0.09 0.10 1.03 1.03 0.95 0.95 72 0.14 0.15 1.47 1.45 0.90 0.90 96 0.19 1.93 0.82 120 0.23 2.36 0.73 144 0.25 2.75 0.63 168 0.25 3.08 0.54 192 0.21 3.37 0.45 216 0.19 3.59 0.37 240 0.17 3.81 0.29 264 0.16 3.89 0.25 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.04 2.31 2.31 48 -0.13 -0.10 4.13 4.12 72 -0.17 -0.15 6.01 6.01 96 -0.19 8.05 120 -0.24 10.06 144 -0.27 11.81 168 -0.29 13.36 192 -0.36 14.93 216 -0.36 16.25 240 -0.39 17.38 264 -0.45 17.67 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.16 3.29 3.28 48 -0.33 -0.29 5.48 5.51 72 -0.35 -0.32 7.94 7.98 96 -0.36 10.91 120 -0.37 13.98 144 -0.42 16.67 168 -0.50 19.04 192 -0.64 21.40 216 -0.71 23.74 240 -0.80 25.81 264 -0.91 26.60 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.68 2.93 2.94 0.98 0.98 25.3 25.9 48 -0.99 -0.82 4.24 4.01 0.95 0.96 33.8 34.0 72 -1.17 -0.98 5.09 4.90 0.93 0.93 38.6 38.7 96 -1.20 5.76 0.91 42.3 120 -1.53 6.69 0.88 45.4 144 -1.43 7.75 0.84 48.3 168 -1.40 8.77 0.79 51.2 192 -1.42 10.00 0.73 53.7 216 -1.10 11.40 0.66 56.4 240 -0.91 12.24 0.62 58.1 264 -0.86 12.71 0.61 59.4 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.26 1.03 4.25 4.29 0.99 0.98 19.8 19.8 48 1.74 1.60 6.49 6.52 0.97 0.96 27.4 27.5 72 2.03 1.96 8.54 8.59 0.94 0.93 32.8 33.2 96 1.88 10.52 0.90 38.1 120 1.58 12.90 0.84 42.7 144 1.54 15.35 0.78 46.7 168 1.21 17.41 0.72 50.3 192 1.06 19.16 0.65 53.8 216 1.09 21.45 0.57 57.6 240 1.00 23.52 0.47 61.0 264 0.40 25.27 0.38 63.7 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.05 0.38 0.40 0.96 0.97 48 0.14 0.14 0.64 0.65 0.90 0.93 72 0.20 0.19 0.80 0.81 0.85 0.88 96 0.21 0.93 0.85 120 0.23 1.03 0.81 144 0.22 1.12 0.77 168 0.20 1.22 0.73 192 0.19 1.31 0.68 216 0.18 1.40 0.64 240 0.18 1.45 0.60 264 0.15 1.50 0.57 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.01 0.32 0.31 0.93 0.93 48 0.06 0.04 0.47 0.46 0.85 0.85 72 0.11 0.09 0.58 0.56 0.78 0.78 96 0.13 0.64 0.71 120 0.15 0.70 0.65 144 0.16 0.75 0.59 168 0.15 0.81 0.52 192 0.15 0.85 0.47 216 0.15 0.89 0.43 240 0.15 0.94 0.36 264 0.13 0.98 0.32 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 1.47 1.45 48 -0.04 -0.02 2.20 2.16 72 -0.06 -0.06 2.68 2.63 96 -0.07 2.98 120 -0.09 3.33 144 -0.11 3.61 168 -0.12 3.93 192 -0.12 4.20 216 -0.11 4.45 240 -0.08 4.68 264 -0.03 4.85 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.33 3.02 3.04 48 -0.49 -0.48 4.48 4.49 72 -0.53 -0.56 5.55 5.57 96 -0.60 6.50 120 -0.64 7.37 144 -0.68 8.12 168 -0.73 8.85 192 -0.75 9.50 216 -0.77 10.30 240 -0.83 10.99 264 -0.84 11.66 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.06 0.91 0.90 0.99 0.99 13.8 13.6 48 -0.13 -0.13 1.77 1.76 0.98 0.98 23.9 23.7 72 -0.18 -0.17 2.76 2.74 0.94 0.94 32.9 32.6 96 -0.19 3.94 0.88 41.4 120 -0.19 5.25 0.78 49.5 144 -0.16 6.55 0.67 56.9 168 -0.21 7.65 0.55 61.8 192 -0.25 8.58 0.44 65.7 216 -0.25 9.25 0.35 69.0 240 -0.28 9.80 0.27 71.6 264 -0.24 10.35 0.22 73.1 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.12 0.90 8.43 8.42 1.00 1.00 10.4 10.4 48 1.62 1.45 17.13 17.21 0.98 0.98 18.8 18.9 72 1.95 1.88 27.55 27.86 0.96 0.96 26.6 26.8 96 2.06 41.45 0.90 35.0 120 2.41 56.37 0.82 42.8 144 3.07 70.98 0.72 49.9 168 3.30 83.28 0.62 55.1 192 3.30 93.75 0.51 58.9 216 3.48 104.38 0.40 62.7 240 3.36 112.26 0.31 65.7 264 3.26 118.58 0.25 67.3 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.15 0.90 10.79 10.80 1.00 1.00 8.6 8.7 48 1.64 1.48 21.79 21.99 0.99 0.99 15.3 15.4 72 2.03 1.92 34.91 35.52 0.96 0.96 21.8 22.3 96 2.05 53.60 0.91 29.8 120 2.48 73.82 0.83 37.3 144 3.14 93.54 0.73 44.1 168 3.12 110.28 0.64 49.4 192 2.98 123.52 0.54 53.2 216 3.18 138.81 0.43 57.2 240 2.91 150.05 0.34 60.4 264 2.47 158.83 0.27 62.4 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.52 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 0.05 0.04 0.98 0.99 0.96 0.96 72 0.06 0.06 1.44 1.45 0.92 0.92 96 0.07 2.00 0.84 120 0.09 2.55 0.74 144 0.11 3.11 0.61 168 0.13 3.55 0.50 192 0.15 3.83 0.42 216 0.15 4.14 0.34 240 0.14 4.36 0.26 264 0.11 4.55 0.20 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.60 0.60 0.99 0.99 48 0.01 0.01 1.06 1.06 0.97 0.97 72 -0.01 0.00 1.50 1.51 0.94 0.94 96 -0.01 1.98 0.90 120 -0.03 2.44 0.84 144 -0.06 2.91 0.77 168 -0.11 3.29 0.70 192 -0.15 3.59 0.64 216 -0.14 3.83 0.59 240 -0.15 4.00 0.55 264 -0.15 4.16 0.50 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.08 2.37 2.36 48 -0.11 -0.13 4.34 4.36 72 -0.12 -0.16 6.16 6.23 96 -0.18 8.26 120 -0.20 10.36 144 -0.27 12.20 168 -0.25 13.68 192 -0.24 14.83 216 -0.25 15.87 240 -0.30 16.80 264 -0.35 17.34 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.12 3.32 3.36 48 -0.23 -0.19 5.84 5.88 72 -0.32 -0.30 8.32 8.45 96 -0.36 11.41 120 -0.37 14.47 144 -0.46 17.24 168 -0.41 19.49 192 -0.44 21.27 216 -0.39 22.92 240 -0.47 24.31 264 -0.49 25.37 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.45 -1.76 8.05 8.01 0.99 0.99 48 -1.54 -0.35 11.81 11.98 0.99 0.99 72 0.92 0.91 18.71 18.51 0.97 0.97 96 2.26 28.55 0.93 120 1.63 38.48 0.83 144 -1.84 45.34 0.81 168 -2.80 54.96 0.74 192 -2.33 67.18 0.64 216 -4.89 74.90 0.51 240 -14.21 76.53 0.50 264 -16.41 82.52 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.53 -6.49 11.65 12.10 0.99 0.99 48 -5.87 -4.99 16.86 17.35 0.99 0.99 72 -2.87 -3.76 27.68 27.38 0.98 0.98 96 -0.69 42.89 0.94 120 -0.03 58.68 0.88 144 -2.74 72.83 0.83 168 -3.71 85.71 0.78 192 -1.88 103.39 0.71 216 -0.98 115.59 0.60 240 -6.55 126.07 0.50 264 -7.96 133.60 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.24 -9.43 15.22 16.13 0.99 0.99 48 -7.51 -7.63 22.21 23.92 0.99 0.99 72 -3.77 -5.98 35.83 36.68 0.98 0.98 96 -3.01 57.56 0.95 120 -0.52 80.39 0.90 144 -1.66 102.07 0.86 168 -3.16 123.08 0.79 192 -0.99 146.87 0.74 216 2.05 163.77 0.63 240 -1.12 179.01 0.54 264 -2.82 190.73 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.54 1.61 1.73 0.95 0.94 48 -0.43 -0.51 1.84 1.93 0.96 0.96 72 -0.38 -0.51 2.31 2.37 0.94 0.94 96 -0.42 3.06 0.88 120 -0.37 3.81 0.79 144 -0.25 4.47 0.74 168 -0.12 5.19 0.70 192 0.15 5.83 0.66 216 0.47 6.24 0.58 240 0.90 6.68 0.54 264 1.06 6.97 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.17 0.95 0.99 0.97 0.96 48 -0.13 -0.16 1.24 1.31 0.97 0.97 72 -0.11 -0.15 1.75 1.85 0.95 0.94 96 -0.08 2.53 0.90 120 -0.02 3.17 0.83 144 0.02 3.71 0.80 168 -0.08 4.24 0.76 192 -0.01 4.96 0.69 216 0.15 5.24 0.65 240 0.25 5.71 0.57 264 0.28 5.97 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.32 0.26 1.14 1.12 0.95 0.95 48 0.35 0.32 1.43 1.43 0.94 0.95 72 0.46 0.40 1.89 1.85 0.91 0.91 96 0.43 2.36 0.85 120 0.55 2.82 0.78 144 0.68 3.19 0.76 168 0.73 3.50 0.72 192 0.72 3.82 0.69 216 0.66 4.02 0.66 240 0.76 4.18 0.59 264 0.78 4.39 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.84 3.96 3.95 48 -0.86 -0.94 4.49 4.56 72 -0.86 -0.95 5.57 5.70 96 -0.91 7.21 120 -0.92 8.49 144 -1.19 9.30 168 -1.40 10.25 192 -1.36 11.44 216 -1.04 12.36 240 -0.94 12.63 264 -1.01 13.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.66 4.32 4.41 48 -0.79 -0.79 5.49 5.59 72 -0.82 -0.80 7.21 7.45 96 -0.93 9.88 120 -0.93 11.73 144 -0.80 13.47 168 -0.99 14.72 192 -1.10 16.64 216 -1.15 17.98 240 -0.75 19.32 264 -0.90 20.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.75 5.61 5.41 48 -1.06 -1.05 7.25 7.19 72 -1.10 -1.15 9.64 9.63 96 -1.21 12.88 120 -1.05 16.36 144 -0.95 18.73 168 -1.21 21.47 192 -0.87 24.73 216 -0.96 27.42 240 -1.03 29.10 264 -1.33 30.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.52 -2.97 9.28 9.15 0.98 0.98 48 -3.41 -4.04 13.86 12.67 0.98 0.98 72 -3.13 -5.50 20.38 20.81 0.95 0.95 96 -5.91 29.13 0.92 120 -4.42 38.60 0.88 144 -4.05 49.26 0.81 168 0.98 57.88 0.72 192 14.57 69.16 0.66 216 11.67 79.84 0.57 240 9.51 95.39 0.49 264 11.81 103.39 0.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.86 -8.26 13.34 13.29 0.99 0.99 48 -9.72 -10.36 19.38 19.15 0.99 0.99 72 -9.98 -13.55 30.08 31.35 0.97 0.97 96 -14.87 43.84 0.93 120 -16.42 63.14 0.87 144 -15.15 80.71 0.81 168 -9.47 96.38 0.74 192 10.61 104.52 0.69 216 18.25 118.12 0.63 240 14.43 150.44 0.48 264 22.00 154.60 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.49 -9.02 16.88 16.40 0.99 0.99 48 -11.49 -12.18 25.59 24.16 0.99 0.99 72 -13.40 -17.27 40.68 43.15 0.98 0.98 96 -21.13 61.83 0.94 120 -24.46 90.92 0.85 144 -20.13 112.14 0.83 168 -13.48 135.54 0.77 192 7.60 150.78 0.72 216 23.75 172.54 0.64 240 18.47 213.61 0.50 264 33.80 219.77 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.31 1.39 1.32 0.89 0.88 48 -0.44 -0.35 1.53 1.46 0.90 0.91 72 -0.52 -0.47 1.79 1.80 0.89 0.88 96 -0.51 2.14 0.84 120 -0.57 2.67 0.76 144 -0.48 3.28 0.69 168 -0.46 3.56 0.68 192 -0.27 3.80 0.63 216 0.33 4.13 0.58 240 0.35 4.54 0.51 264 0.71 4.80 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.13 0.92 0.92 0.96 0.96 48 -0.23 -0.19 1.18 1.14 0.96 0.96 72 -0.26 -0.28 1.67 1.69 0.95 0.95 96 -0.41 2.29 0.90 120 -0.58 3.16 0.78 144 -0.45 3.66 0.76 168 -0.43 4.23 0.70 192 0.08 4.44 0.67 216 0.67 4.79 0.63 240 0.45 5.71 0.48 264 0.81 5.61 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.55 0.46 1.29 1.23 0.93 0.94 48 0.49 0.41 1.53 1.48 0.93 0.94 72 0.42 0.32 1.92 1.89 0.89 0.89 96 0.29 2.36 0.84 120 0.37 3.07 0.77 144 0.39 3.58 0.67 168 0.32 3.78 0.60 192 -0.19 3.69 0.57 216 -0.22 3.73 0.56 240 0.11 4.09 0.46 264 0.12 4.14 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.65 4.21 4.24 48 -0.64 -0.64 4.82 4.81 72 -0.62 -0.67 5.80 5.74 96 -0.76 6.91 120 -0.73 8.38 144 -0.58 9.58 168 -1.30 10.01 192 -1.36 10.99 216 -0.77 12.18 240 -0.92 13.21 264 -0.99 13.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.49 4.40 4.53 48 -0.45 -0.51 5.54 5.59 72 -0.35 -0.46 7.58 7.48 96 -0.65 9.81 120 -0.46 12.67 144 -0.40 14.86 168 -1.44 16.36 192 -2.07 17.86 216 -2.33 19.57 240 -2.21 21.75 264 -1.94 22.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.42 5.55 5.63 48 -0.85 -0.49 7.07 7.34 72 -0.78 -0.35 10.25 10.31 96 -0.61 13.99 120 -0.55 18.44 144 -0.76 21.23 168 -1.92 24.76 192 -3.11 27.86 216 -3.79 30.77 240 -4.10 33.13 264 -3.14 34.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.15 0.96 9.76 8.79 0.97 0.97 48 2.80 2.14 12.28 11.56 0.97 0.97 72 3.33 3.02 15.11 14.51 0.97 0.97 96 2.77 18.92 0.95 120 4.52 24.79 0.91 144 7.56 32.18 0.85 168 9.62 39.44 0.76 192 10.05 46.75 0.66 216 9.02 52.39 0.55 240 8.49 55.49 0.55 264 5.45 57.27 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 92 12 UTC = 95 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.08 11.65 12.01 0.98 0.98 48 -0.46 0.96 15.01 15.65 0.98 0.98 72 -1.08 1.14 19.75 20.38 0.98 0.97 96 0.29 27.39 0.96 120 1.59 38.29 0.92 144 4.38 48.75 0.87 168 7.27 58.09 0.80 192 7.77 70.00 0.72 216 8.73 79.48 0.67 240 7.79 88.82 0.63 264 5.46 96.53 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 103 12 UTC = 105 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.94 0.71 18.04 17.53 0.98 0.98 48 -1.09 2.39 22.61 22.61 0.98 0.98 72 -3.07 0.62 30.45 30.07 0.98 0.97 96 -1.71 40.72 0.96 120 -2.12 54.89 0.93 144 0.03 69.15 0.89 168 2.78 82.39 0.85 192 5.39 98.62 0.77 216 7.16 112.72 0.71 240 6.01 129.85 0.64 264 1.77 140.89 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 101 12 UTC = 105 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.61 1.70 1.72 0.90 0.91 48 -0.58 -0.68 1.88 1.89 0.92 0.93 72 -0.66 -0.75 2.08 2.07 0.92 0.92 96 -0.75 2.28 0.92 120 -0.70 2.66 0.89 144 -0.61 3.07 0.85 168 -0.66 3.63 0.77 192 -0.63 4.19 0.68 216 -0.58 4.50 0.62 240 -0.67 5.06 0.55 264 -0.68 5.45 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.17 1.03 1.04 0.95 0.95 48 -0.25 -0.18 1.22 1.23 0.96 0.96 72 -0.31 -0.25 1.49 1.49 0.95 0.95 96 -0.28 1.90 0.93 120 -0.34 2.35 0.90 144 -0.39 2.82 0.84 168 -0.36 3.33 0.76 192 -0.33 3.88 0.67 216 -0.28 4.08 0.61 240 -0.33 4.61 0.55 264 -0.45 5.00 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 144 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.41 0.47 1.36 1.38 0.91 0.91 48 0.51 0.59 1.65 1.67 0.91 0.91 72 0.51 0.59 1.96 1.94 0.89 0.89 96 0.54 2.28 0.85 120 0.48 2.63 0.80 144 0.47 2.98 0.76 168 0.42 3.31 0.69 192 0.47 3.55 0.65 216 0.47 3.74 0.61 240 0.51 4.04 0.60 264 0.56 4.21 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.88 3.83 3.78 48 -0.90 -1.01 4.23 4.15 72 -1.03 -1.14 4.70 4.63 96 -1.26 5.16 120 -1.42 5.94 144 -1.46 6.84 168 -1.44 7.80 192 -1.26 8.54 216 -1.34 8.94 240 -1.18 9.26 264 -1.51 9.24 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 123 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.38 4.25 4.30 48 -0.67 -0.44 5.01 5.08 72 -0.78 -0.60 6.13 6.07 96 -0.71 7.31 120 -0.90 8.88 144 -0.97 10.49 168 -0.92 11.63 192 -0.80 12.88 216 -0.85 13.71 240 -0.72 14.75 264 -0.76 15.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.60 4.46 4.51 48 -0.91 -0.82 5.58 5.67 72 -1.14 -1.06 7.13 7.18 96 -1.28 9.07 120 -1.52 11.27 144 -1.58 13.40 168 -1.55 15.67 192 -1.34 17.44 216 -1.31 19.13 240 -1.42 21.04 264 -1.44 22.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.28 -4.59 7.52 9.77 0.96 0.96 48 -2.30 -3.92 9.73 12.05 0.97 0.97 72 -3.94 -4.89 13.52 15.79 0.95 0.94 96 -7.31 21.95 0.86 120 -7.78 26.13 0.74 144 -7.12 31.75 0.67 168 -7.75 36.01 0.75 192 -9.41 37.32 0.72 216 -10.69 42.82 0.69 240 -5.93 46.60 0.66 264 -4.54 51.26 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.05 -8.30 9.87 12.71 0.97 0.97 48 -5.29 -7.40 13.16 15.43 0.98 0.98 72 -7.64 -8.74 19.72 20.40 0.96 0.95 96 -12.52 29.53 0.91 120 -15.13 37.39 0.79 144 -18.07 48.67 0.71 168 -18.92 56.46 0.70 192 -20.30 59.28 0.70 216 -21.30 64.36 0.71 240 -14.62 70.36 0.63 264 -12.16 78.31 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.77 -11.27 13.31 16.82 0.97 0.97 48 -6.46 -9.20 17.67 20.91 0.98 0.97 72 -8.55 -10.87 25.54 27.50 0.96 0.95 96 -15.62 42.10 0.89 120 -18.89 53.46 0.79 144 -24.13 68.80 0.73 168 -26.07 82.51 0.70 192 -26.66 88.29 0.67 216 -26.69 93.89 0.68 240 -21.52 98.20 0.63 264 -21.46 109.38 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.32 1.39 1.38 0.87 0.87 48 -0.30 -0.25 1.55 1.56 0.91 0.88 72 -0.37 -0.20 1.82 1.69 0.91 0.86 96 -0.31 1.93 0.81 120 -0.37 2.17 0.71 144 -0.59 2.68 0.73 168 -0.70 3.18 0.69 192 -0.64 3.24 0.61 216 -0.59 3.49 0.60 240 -0.51 3.60 0.58 264 -0.10 4.23 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.06 0.89 0.86 0.86 0.83 48 0.02 0.09 1.02 1.01 0.89 0.88 72 -0.02 0.00 1.19 1.12 0.86 0.87 96 -0.11 1.51 0.79 120 -0.20 1.78 0.77 144 -0.37 2.19 0.69 168 -0.41 2.43 0.64 192 -0.33 2.76 0.57 216 -0.28 2.78 0.60 240 -0.13 2.80 0.60 264 -0.24 2.80 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.39 0.32 1.10 1.08 0.85 0.85 48 0.55 0.39 1.35 1.35 0.87 0.82 72 0.58 0.44 1.62 1.59 0.82 0.77 96 0.45 1.95 0.72 120 0.45 2.11 0.71 144 0.57 2.44 0.62 168 0.58 2.60 0.60 192 0.57 2.85 0.56 216 0.46 3.00 0.54 240 0.30 3.03 0.49 264 0.19 2.94 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.50 3.84 4.04 48 -0.52 -0.55 4.31 4.53 72 -0.40 -0.46 4.85 5.12 96 -0.40 5.77 120 -0.40 6.40 144 -0.30 7.01 168 -0.27 7.51 192 -0.15 8.13 216 -0.36 8.62 240 -0.69 9.07 264 -0.49 9.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.66 4.13 4.13 48 -0.59 -0.62 4.86 4.91 72 -0.40 -0.72 5.84 5.80 96 -0.51 7.06 120 -0.25 8.52 144 -0.21 9.12 168 -0.38 9.84 192 0.30 11.38 216 0.37 12.57 240 -0.17 12.92 264 -0.42 13.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.63 5.28 5.35 48 -0.69 -0.44 6.51 6.51 72 -0.33 -0.47 7.94 8.05 96 -0.04 10.46 120 0.23 12.47 144 0.67 14.21 168 0.57 15.60 192 0.78 17.96 216 1.03 20.21 240 0.48 20.74 264 0.28 21.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 21 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.55 -2.48 9.66 9.94 0.79 0.74 48 -2.74 -2.27 10.40 10.27 0.86 0.84 72 -3.15 -2.60 10.92 10.71 0.86 0.84 96 -3.03 10.99 0.80 120 -3.13 11.37 0.76 144 -3.14 11.79 0.75 168 -3.50 12.44 0.75 192 -3.75 13.36 0.75 216 -3.68 14.32 0.69 240 -3.54 14.67 0.67 264 -3.60 15.28 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.86 -5.05 11.00 11.91 0.72 0.66 48 -4.44 -4.50 11.29 12.04 0.82 0.80 72 -5.14 -4.94 12.06 12.63 0.83 0.83 96 -5.70 13.16 0.79 120 -6.12 13.83 0.74 144 -6.22 14.40 0.73 168 -6.75 15.25 0.72 192 -7.14 16.27 0.71 216 -7.24 17.37 0.66 240 -7.41 18.23 0.61 264 -7.70 18.90 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.16 -11.96 15.16 17.21 0.66 0.70 48 -9.45 -11.17 15.21 17.15 0.80 0.82 72 -9.14 -10.64 15.55 17.48 0.83 0.86 96 -10.63 18.29 0.84 120 -10.37 19.45 0.79 144 -9.90 20.56 0.78 168 -10.16 22.06 0.75 192 -10.70 23.56 0.73 216 -11.25 25.45 0.67 240 -11.93 27.04 0.61 264 -12.78 28.80 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.94 1.01 0.44 0.45 48 0.14 0.12 0.97 1.05 0.61 0.56 72 0.18 0.16 0.99 1.07 0.67 0.60 96 0.15 1.09 0.63 120 0.15 1.12 0.62 144 0.14 1.13 0.63 168 0.12 1.18 0.60 192 0.10 1.20 0.59 216 0.08 1.24 0.54 240 0.06 1.29 0.50 264 0.07 1.33 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.27 0.79 0.81 0.50 0.52 48 -0.29 -0.34 0.86 0.89 0.55 0.59 72 -0.30 -0.34 0.91 0.93 0.56 0.61 96 -0.33 0.97 0.59 120 -0.31 1.00 0.60 144 -0.30 1.03 0.57 168 -0.30 1.05 0.56 192 -0.30 1.08 0.56 216 -0.32 1.13 0.55 240 -0.33 1.18 0.51 264 -0.34 1.21 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 -0.01 0.62 0.59 0.61 0.65 48 0.11 0.07 0.69 0.66 0.68 0.73 72 0.16 0.13 0.74 0.72 0.69 0.73 96 0.15 0.78 0.71 120 0.18 0.83 0.70 144 0.20 0.88 0.69 168 0.22 0.94 0.66 192 0.22 0.96 0.64 216 0.20 1.01 0.59 240 0.16 1.05 0.56 264 0.13 1.04 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.65 3.39 3.50 48 -0.62 -0.66 3.71 3.83 72 -0.68 -0.69 4.03 4.08 96 -0.72 4.31 120 -0.76 4.60 144 -0.78 4.82 168 -0.84 5.06 192 -0.99 5.22 216 -1.00 5.50 240 -0.84 5.80 264 -0.64 5.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.36 -1.16 4.03 3.91 48 -1.53 -1.36 4.36 4.36 72 -1.60 -1.46 4.72 4.73 96 -1.49 5.14 120 -1.39 5.47 144 -1.38 5.93 168 -1.34 6.33 192 -1.41 6.55 216 -1.58 6.69 240 -1.71 7.02 264 -1.79 7.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -1.14 4.69 4.84 48 -1.14 -1.30 5.42 5.59 72 -1.24 -1.42 6.15 6.29 96 -1.52 7.13 120 -1.54 7.90 144 -1.56 8.53 168 -1.58 9.07 192 -1.58 9.45 216 -1.66 10.10 240 -1.91 10.66 264 -2.00 11.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.78 9.48 9.18 0.99 0.99 48 -0.02 -0.04 13.56 13.14 0.98 0.98 72 1.02 0.64 19.64 19.78 0.97 0.97 96 1.27 28.18 0.94 120 1.76 37.86 0.90 144 1.80 47.14 0.85 168 2.93 58.05 0.78 192 5.37 67.57 0.71 216 4.23 75.07 0.64 240 1.43 80.88 0.59 264 0.63 85.06 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 334 12 UTC = 338 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.75 -3.50 12.42 12.64 0.99 0.99 48 -3.56 -3.04 17.93 18.31 0.99 0.99 72 -2.93 -2.98 27.36 27.70 0.98 0.98 96 -2.21 40.12 0.95 120 -1.81 55.93 0.90 144 -1.63 70.85 0.86 168 -0.18 85.31 0.80 192 3.07 99.14 0.74 216 4.19 109.35 0.68 240 2.11 123.51 0.59 264 1.75 128.26 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 350 12 UTC = 351 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.58 -4.37 17.55 17.76 0.99 0.99 48 -4.45 -3.68 24.44 24.62 0.99 0.99 72 -4.22 -4.37 36.93 37.35 0.98 0.98 96 -4.57 54.71 0.95 120 -4.44 76.45 0.91 144 -3.57 96.58 0.87 168 -2.13 116.78 0.82 192 1.82 136.44 0.77 216 4.15 152.17 0.70 240 1.94 173.53 0.60 264 2.21 181.86 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 348 12 UTC = 350 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.47 1.56 1.61 0.93 0.93 48 -0.47 -0.51 1.77 1.80 0.94 0.95 72 -0.51 -0.57 2.08 2.10 0.93 0.93 96 -0.55 2.54 0.91 120 -0.52 3.07 0.86 144 -0.46 3.63 0.81 168 -0.42 4.20 0.75 192 -0.35 4.71 0.69 216 -0.28 5.11 0.64 240 -0.23 5.55 0.58 264 -0.18 5.80 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 385 12 UTC = 384 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.15 0.98 1.01 0.96 0.96 48 -0.18 -0.16 1.24 1.26 0.97 0.97 72 -0.20 -0.19 1.67 1.69 0.95 0.95 96 -0.20 2.25 0.92 120 -0.22 2.88 0.87 144 -0.22 3.38 0.83 168 -0.25 3.94 0.77 192 -0.19 4.48 0.70 216 -0.10 4.79 0.65 240 -0.13 5.31 0.57 264 -0.13 5.52 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 410 12 UTC = 409 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.39 0.38 1.29 1.29 0.93 0.94 48 0.44 0.42 1.58 1.58 0.94 0.94 72 0.45 0.43 1.95 1.93 0.92 0.92 96 0.40 2.37 0.88 120 0.42 2.84 0.83 144 0.46 3.25 0.79 168 0.46 3.60 0.75 192 0.39 3.82 0.72 216 0.34 3.99 0.67 240 0.38 4.22 0.63 264 0.40 4.34 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 404 12 UTC = 404 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.78 3.95 3.93 48 -0.83 -0.88 4.53 4.45 72 -0.89 -0.94 5.37 5.32 96 -0.99 6.43 120 -1.09 7.59 144 -1.14 8.47 168 -1.24 9.47 192 -1.15 10.36 216 -1.11 11.07 240 -1.01 11.57 264 -1.19 11.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 370 12 UTC = 371 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.51 4.33 4.37 48 -0.69 -0.59 5.40 5.44 72 -0.74 -0.67 7.00 6.97 96 -0.77 8.91 120 -0.83 10.94 144 -0.83 12.69 168 -0.97 14.08 192 -1.06 15.62 216 -1.12 16.74 240 -1.05 17.95 264 -1.01 18.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 399 12 UTC = 401 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.54 4.98 4.94 48 -0.82 -0.73 6.44 6.46 72 -0.89 -0.81 8.70 8.67 96 -0.97 11.46 120 -1.02 14.67 144 -1.11 17.18 168 -1.26 19.93 192 -1.41 22.53 216 -1.53 24.51 240 -1.71 26.30 264 -1.62 27.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 398 12 UTC = 399 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.22 -1.83 8.20 9.05 0.97 0.97 48 -1.03 -1.68 11.25 12.59 0.97 0.97 72 -2.37 -2.39 15.52 17.32 0.96 0.96 96 -3.59 24.82 0.92 120 -3.63 30.84 0.87 144 -2.73 37.61 0.81 168 -1.32 44.71 0.74 192 -1.94 50.05 0.70 216 -3.10 55.26 0.65 240 -1.52 59.83 0.59 264 -0.39 61.71 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.04 -7.05 11.61 12.93 0.98 0.98 48 -5.55 -5.90 15.39 17.35 0.98 0.98 72 -6.72 -5.87 22.25 24.12 0.96 0.96 96 -6.78 34.61 0.92 120 -7.85 45.05 0.85 144 -7.38 54.49 0.81 168 -3.79 65.90 0.73 192 -3.69 69.64 0.72 216 -6.60 77.45 0.67 240 -6.25 85.66 0.62 264 -5.44 89.26 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.05 -9.40 16.15 19.00 0.98 0.98 48 -7.22 -7.91 21.76 25.10 0.98 0.97 72 -8.14 -7.81 30.42 34.15 0.96 0.96 96 -9.17 49.21 0.92 120 -11.42 63.33 0.87 144 -11.03 75.60 0.82 168 -7.58 91.27 0.76 192 -7.19 97.56 0.75 216 -11.76 107.30 0.71 240 -14.47 117.72 0.67 264 -13.92 125.03 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.54 1.58 1.58 0.89 0.89 48 -0.53 -0.45 1.72 1.71 0.92 0.92 72 -0.52 -0.37 1.95 1.88 0.91 0.90 96 -0.48 2.23 0.86 120 -0.58 2.57 0.82 144 -0.62 2.96 0.74 168 -0.49 3.55 0.65 192 -0.55 3.64 0.60 216 -0.48 3.91 0.59 240 -0.45 4.15 0.57 264 -0.33 4.56 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 0.96 1.03 0.90 0.91 48 0.00 0.02 1.14 1.26 0.92 0.91 72 0.00 0.04 1.40 1.48 0.90 0.91 96 0.08 1.90 0.87 120 0.00 2.26 0.82 144 0.02 2.60 0.75 168 0.10 3.00 0.69 192 0.12 3.24 0.66 216 -0.01 3.42 0.63 240 -0.09 3.55 0.62 264 -0.16 3.70 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.19 1.23 1.24 0.87 0.90 48 0.43 0.16 1.49 1.54 0.89 0.89 72 0.44 0.13 1.79 1.82 0.87 0.88 96 0.07 2.15 0.85 120 0.05 2.50 0.81 144 0.01 2.81 0.78 168 -0.09 3.19 0.74 192 -0.20 3.40 0.72 216 -0.24 3.59 0.72 240 -0.34 3.66 0.71 264 -0.30 3.67 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.86 4.57 4.48 48 -0.95 -0.95 5.00 5.00 72 -0.88 -0.90 5.51 5.65 96 -0.77 6.37 120 -0.87 7.39 144 -1.03 8.06 168 -0.95 8.48 192 -0.63 9.15 216 -0.93 9.50 240 -1.10 9.98 264 -0.91 10.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.71 4.47 4.45 48 -0.54 -0.69 5.42 5.53 72 -0.37 -0.62 6.44 6.67 96 -0.35 8.14 120 -0.19 9.62 144 -0.23 11.10 168 -0.43 11.88 192 0.02 13.00 216 -0.15 14.07 240 -0.71 14.36 264 -0.98 14.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 46 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.43 5.62 5.61 48 -0.60 -0.33 6.93 6.82 72 -0.43 -0.36 8.64 8.68 96 0.06 11.01 120 0.26 13.50 144 0.47 15.71 168 0.60 17.32 192 0.69 19.16 216 0.51 20.71 240 -0.09 21.30 264 -0.06 22.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 46 ---------------------------------------------------------