VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY DECEMBER 2013 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.15 1.02 1.04 0.99 0.99 16.4 16.9 48 0.22 0.23 1.77 1.80 0.98 0.98 24.9 25.6 72 0.27 0.28 2.66 2.71 0.96 0.96 33.1 34.0 96 0.33 3.79 0.92 42.6 120 0.32 4.99 0.86 51.0 144 0.34 6.18 0.78 58.4 168 0.35 7.27 0.71 64.2 192 0.29 8.50 0.60 69.6 216 0.28 9.33 0.52 73.7 240 0.15 10.02 0.45 76.7 264 0.02 10.81 0.38 79.5 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.29 7.48 7.56 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.7 48 -0.38 -0.48 15.15 15.44 0.99 0.99 17.5 17.6 72 -0.68 -0.77 24.68 25.29 0.98 0.97 25.0 25.4 96 -1.20 37.35 0.94 33.4 120 -1.96 49.98 0.90 40.5 144 -2.71 63.75 0.83 47.1 168 -3.31 76.57 0.76 52.6 192 -3.96 90.58 0.68 57.6 216 -4.39 101.39 0.60 61.5 240 -5.58 110.01 0.53 64.1 264 -6.49 119.16 0.45 66.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.03 9.74 9.96 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.8 48 0.02 -0.10 19.76 20.40 0.99 0.99 13.5 13.7 72 -0.50 -0.53 32.72 33.05 0.98 0.98 19.8 20.0 96 -1.22 49.01 0.95 26.7 120 -1.97 65.42 0.91 32.8 144 -3.09 83.61 0.85 38.8 168 -4.29 101.35 0.78 44.0 192 -5.21 119.60 0.71 48.5 216 -6.34 136.29 0.63 52.8 240 -7.68 149.44 0.55 56.0 264 -8.22 161.35 0.47 58.9 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.53 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.05 0.96 0.98 0.98 0.97 72 -0.07 -0.07 1.42 1.44 0.95 0.94 96 -0.12 1.95 0.90 120 -0.15 2.48 0.83 144 -0.20 3.04 0.75 168 -0.25 3.56 0.66 192 -0.28 4.00 0.58 216 -0.31 4.43 0.49 240 -0.31 4.72 0.43 264 -0.29 4.97 0.36 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.06 0.64 0.65 0.98 0.98 48 0.09 0.09 1.07 1.08 0.95 0.95 72 0.13 0.13 1.49 1.51 0.91 0.90 96 0.16 1.94 0.84 120 0.19 2.35 0.77 144 0.21 2.72 0.68 168 0.22 3.00 0.61 192 0.22 3.26 0.54 216 0.19 3.48 0.47 240 0.18 3.66 0.42 264 0.15 3.88 0.35 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.04 2.42 2.45 48 -0.12 -0.11 4.33 4.38 72 -0.19 -0.14 6.14 6.23 96 -0.19 8.19 120 -0.22 10.01 144 -0.21 11.81 168 -0.23 13.27 192 -0.22 14.75 216 -0.22 15.97 240 -0.18 16.76 264 -0.08 17.68 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.17 3.38 3.44 48 -0.29 -0.27 5.72 5.85 72 -0.40 -0.39 8.19 8.26 96 -0.41 11.01 120 -0.42 13.48 144 -0.42 15.95 168 -0.44 18.23 192 -0.47 20.23 216 -0.43 22.47 240 -0.35 24.21 264 -0.32 25.57 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.50 2.96 3.01 0.98 0.98 25.3 25.8 48 -0.64 -0.56 4.33 4.28 0.95 0.95 34.1 34.1 72 -0.70 -0.65 5.38 5.44 0.93 0.93 38.9 39.3 96 -0.84 6.44 0.90 42.9 120 -0.73 7.33 0.87 46.2 144 -0.62 8.53 0.82 49.3 168 -0.36 9.59 0.78 52.1 192 -0.08 10.38 0.74 55.1 216 -0.01 11.12 0.70 57.2 240 0.24 12.02 0.68 59.2 264 0.58 12.70 0.64 61.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.85 0.73 4.53 4.56 0.99 0.99 20.3 20.4 48 1.26 1.32 6.91 6.90 0.97 0.97 28.2 28.3 72 1.58 1.68 9.30 9.22 0.95 0.95 33.9 34.2 96 1.81 11.37 0.92 38.8 120 1.71 13.45 0.88 42.7 144 1.25 15.77 0.84 46.4 168 0.67 17.86 0.79 49.5 192 0.41 20.28 0.73 53.0 216 0.24 22.31 0.67 56.3 240 0.26 23.86 0.62 59.0 264 0.31 25.52 0.56 61.7 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.40 0.42 0.97 0.97 48 0.08 0.09 0.65 0.66 0.91 0.92 72 0.14 0.14 0.82 0.83 0.86 0.87 96 0.18 0.95 0.83 120 0.18 1.06 0.79 144 0.19 1.15 0.75 168 0.18 1.23 0.72 192 0.17 1.32 0.67 216 0.14 1.42 0.62 240 0.13 1.52 0.57 264 0.13 1.62 0.51 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.34 0.33 0.95 0.96 48 0.10 0.08 0.51 0.50 0.89 0.90 72 0.15 0.12 0.64 0.63 0.82 0.84 96 0.16 0.74 0.77 120 0.19 0.82 0.72 144 0.18 0.89 0.67 168 0.15 0.94 0.62 192 0.13 1.01 0.55 216 0.11 1.07 0.50 240 0.09 1.11 0.44 264 0.08 1.16 0.40 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.02 1.52 1.49 48 0.03 0.02 2.28 2.25 72 -0.03 -0.03 2.75 2.72 96 -0.09 3.10 120 -0.14 3.45 144 -0.20 3.77 168 -0.25 4.08 192 -0.26 4.40 216 -0.25 4.68 240 -0.25 4.88 264 -0.26 5.12 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.37 3.23 3.22 48 -0.58 -0.56 4.80 4.77 72 -0.69 -0.67 5.98 5.96 96 -0.76 6.90 120 -0.81 7.70 144 -0.81 8.43 168 -0.82 9.16 192 -0.86 9.86 216 -0.80 10.46 240 -0.77 11.06 264 -0.75 11.58 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.05 0.83 0.80 0.99 0.99 14.3 14.2 48 -0.12 -0.10 1.53 1.49 0.98 0.98 24.1 23.6 72 -0.15 -0.12 2.31 2.25 0.96 0.96 32.3 32.0 96 -0.13 3.25 0.91 40.2 120 -0.13 4.36 0.84 48.2 144 -0.15 5.40 0.76 54.9 168 -0.18 6.41 0.66 60.3 192 -0.15 7.46 0.55 65.4 216 -0.13 8.31 0.44 69.5 240 -0.04 8.76 0.38 71.0 264 0.02 9.14 0.32 72.9 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.42 1.16 7.59 7.35 1.00 1.00 10.5 10.3 48 2.06 1.96 14.60 14.46 0.99 0.99 18.4 18.1 72 2.58 2.61 23.04 22.81 0.97 0.97 25.8 25.6 96 3.11 33.77 0.94 33.1 120 3.45 46.42 0.88 40.6 144 3.54 58.77 0.80 47.1 168 3.55 70.86 0.71 52.5 192 3.97 83.98 0.59 57.9 216 4.40 94.85 0.47 62.0 240 5.27 103.10 0.37 64.8 264 5.88 108.46 0.30 67.0 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.04 0.73 9.92 9.60 1.00 1.00 9.0 8.8 48 1.38 1.18 19.21 19.23 0.99 0.99 15.6 15.5 72 1.36 1.34 30.87 30.68 0.97 0.97 22.4 22.3 96 1.51 45.70 0.94 29.5 120 1.85 63.25 0.88 36.8 144 2.09 81.10 0.80 43.4 168 1.97 98.99 0.70 49.3 192 1.94 116.65 0.59 54.6 216 2.12 130.56 0.48 58.4 240 2.74 143.92 0.37 61.8 264 3.40 150.66 0.29 64.0 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.03 0.49 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 0.06 0.05 0.90 0.89 0.96 0.96 72 0.06 0.06 1.31 1.31 0.92 0.92 96 0.07 1.73 0.86 120 0.07 2.18 0.78 144 0.08 2.62 0.68 168 0.08 3.03 0.57 192 0.08 3.40 0.46 216 0.08 3.66 0.37 240 0.09 3.93 0.28 264 0.10 4.08 0.22 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.60 0.59 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.06 1.07 1.05 0.96 0.96 72 -0.08 -0.09 1.53 1.51 0.92 0.92 96 -0.11 1.96 0.86 120 -0.12 2.41 0.79 144 -0.13 2.79 0.71 168 -0.15 3.09 0.64 192 -0.20 3.34 0.58 216 -0.24 3.55 0.53 240 -0.28 3.75 0.47 264 -0.29 3.89 0.43 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.13 2.25 2.20 48 -0.18 -0.21 3.94 3.89 72 -0.25 -0.26 5.52 5.51 96 -0.32 7.14 120 -0.34 8.85 144 -0.34 10.48 168 -0.38 11.85 192 -0.44 13.25 216 -0.45 14.40 240 -0.44 15.16 264 -0.48 15.81 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.20 3.33 3.24 48 -0.32 -0.32 5.66 5.60 72 -0.40 -0.39 8.05 7.92 96 -0.47 10.50 120 -0.53 13.19 144 -0.53 15.81 168 -0.53 18.21 192 -0.55 20.40 216 -0.61 21.97 240 -0.58 23.47 264 -0.65 24.56 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.85 8.24 8.56 0.99 0.99 48 0.09 0.34 12.45 13.10 0.98 0.98 72 -0.15 0.09 18.75 18.55 0.96 0.96 96 -1.91 25.43 0.93 120 -1.24 31.49 0.90 144 0.30 39.61 0.84 168 -2.93 49.78 0.79 192 -7.03 57.36 0.72 216 -7.58 61.44 0.70 240 -5.89 63.58 0.69 264 -7.48 66.32 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.73 -5.47 11.36 12.03 0.99 0.99 48 -4.49 -4.53 17.95 18.07 0.99 0.99 72 -4.21 -4.60 28.87 28.01 0.98 0.98 96 -7.50 41.77 0.95 120 -7.45 54.55 0.92 144 -5.31 68.04 0.89 168 -8.09 88.41 0.86 192 -12.14 104.09 0.80 216 -13.15 107.95 0.78 240 -13.95 111.37 0.76 264 -16.76 116.86 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.95 -9.61 16.11 17.08 0.99 0.99 48 -7.61 -9.09 25.31 26.54 0.99 0.99 72 -6.58 -8.50 40.15 38.89 0.98 0.98 96 -11.05 59.21 0.96 120 -11.29 78.27 0.92 144 -6.99 99.26 0.90 168 -10.11 129.23 0.88 192 -16.37 150.47 0.83 216 -19.51 157.00 0.78 240 -20.22 163.93 0.75 264 -25.35 169.14 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.50 1.79 1.83 0.94 0.94 48 -0.42 -0.45 2.03 2.08 0.95 0.95 72 -0.29 -0.40 2.45 2.45 0.94 0.94 96 -0.43 3.13 0.92 120 -0.40 3.73 0.90 144 -0.39 4.21 0.87 168 -0.46 5.16 0.83 192 -0.52 6.20 0.76 216 -0.33 6.66 0.72 240 -0.42 7.02 0.69 264 -0.70 7.11 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.19 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.96 48 -0.20 -0.24 1.28 1.29 0.97 0.97 72 -0.19 -0.24 1.75 1.74 0.96 0.96 96 -0.29 2.29 0.94 120 -0.36 2.92 0.90 144 -0.25 3.47 0.87 168 -0.28 4.27 0.83 192 -0.33 4.95 0.77 216 -0.48 5.19 0.73 240 -0.58 5.42 0.70 264 -0.63 5.50 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.24 1.05 1.06 0.94 0.93 48 0.29 0.26 1.30 1.32 0.93 0.93 72 0.36 0.36 1.64 1.69 0.92 0.91 96 0.46 2.09 0.87 120 0.53 2.50 0.82 144 0.60 2.80 0.79 168 0.64 3.05 0.75 192 0.65 3.40 0.68 216 0.68 3.49 0.66 240 0.72 3.63 0.65 264 0.59 3.93 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -0.91 4.10 4.17 48 -1.02 -1.01 4.69 4.73 72 -1.04 -1.06 5.57 5.55 96 -1.03 6.67 120 -0.96 7.60 144 -1.02 8.47 168 -1.18 9.82 192 -1.01 10.72 216 -0.88 10.94 240 -1.29 11.37 264 -1.34 11.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.74 4.37 4.55 48 -1.03 -0.98 5.46 5.66 72 -1.15 -1.04 7.13 7.39 96 -1.17 9.31 120 -1.17 11.14 144 -0.97 12.86 168 -1.28 14.89 192 -1.62 16.51 216 -1.85 17.03 240 -1.89 17.49 264 -1.69 18.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.85 5.74 5.74 48 -1.11 -1.14 7.48 7.79 72 -1.22 -1.27 10.26 10.05 96 -1.13 13.18 120 -1.18 16.04 144 -1.40 18.39 168 -1.77 21.71 192 -2.48 23.97 216 -2.33 24.94 240 -2.11 26.80 264 -2.11 28.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.87 -5.66 9.89 10.54 0.98 0.98 48 -5.84 -6.88 13.15 14.40 0.98 0.98 72 -5.33 -7.20 18.86 19.38 0.97 0.97 96 -9.07 26.32 0.94 120 -10.14 37.47 0.89 144 -6.79 48.30 0.78 168 -9.54 54.73 0.74 192 -17.91 68.84 0.67 216 -19.26 76.35 0.63 240 -20.21 85.59 0.62 264 -14.01 89.35 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.10 -11.40 14.54 15.09 0.99 0.99 48 -11.72 -13.36 18.87 19.87 0.98 0.99 72 -13.07 -15.77 27.23 28.30 0.97 0.96 96 -20.03 40.47 0.94 120 -24.95 57.38 0.91 144 -25.40 75.54 0.83 168 -18.49 84.37 0.76 192 -24.25 100.51 0.71 216 -33.49 123.21 0.66 240 -39.15 141.57 0.64 264 -39.04 146.24 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -12.06 -15.23 18.72 20.92 0.99 0.99 48 -14.72 -18.30 25.07 28.36 0.99 0.99 72 -18.79 -23.33 37.81 40.76 0.97 0.96 96 -29.13 58.86 0.94 120 -35.10 79.75 0.92 144 -38.02 104.31 0.82 168 -21.92 119.99 0.76 192 -20.09 136.56 0.73 216 -40.50 175.39 0.64 240 -50.40 207.58 0.62 264 -58.40 217.57 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.39 1.41 1.41 0.90 0.90 48 -0.62 -0.53 1.61 1.59 0.91 0.90 72 -0.71 -0.63 1.86 1.88 0.88 0.87 96 -0.76 2.26 0.84 120 -0.97 2.67 0.82 144 -1.32 3.27 0.75 168 -0.91 3.60 0.71 192 -0.62 3.96 0.69 216 -0.80 4.62 0.63 240 -1.03 5.11 0.58 264 -1.58 5.23 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.18 0.92 0.91 0.96 0.95 48 -0.09 -0.19 1.15 1.20 0.96 0.96 72 -0.23 -0.33 1.51 1.55 0.92 0.91 96 -0.52 2.07 0.90 120 -0.75 2.68 0.87 144 -0.94 3.51 0.74 168 -0.36 3.78 0.69 192 -0.20 4.14 0.69 216 -0.84 5.23 0.57 240 -1.08 5.88 0.56 264 -1.37 5.90 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.35 0.28 1.07 1.06 0.92 0.90 48 0.25 0.19 1.24 1.28 0.91 0.89 72 0.26 0.25 1.56 1.56 0.86 0.84 96 0.37 1.94 0.81 120 0.51 2.38 0.72 144 0.44 2.79 0.64 168 0.76 2.87 0.63 192 1.31 3.29 0.58 216 1.12 3.58 0.51 240 0.82 3.69 0.52 264 0.48 3.55 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.56 4.24 4.35 48 -0.51 -0.60 4.70 4.88 72 -0.74 -0.78 5.45 5.53 96 -0.84 6.45 120 -0.81 7.99 144 -1.12 9.23 168 -0.50 9.79 192 -0.32 10.95 216 -0.37 11.77 240 -0.16 12.38 264 -0.86 13.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.56 4.56 4.55 48 -0.52 -0.60 5.59 5.70 72 -0.71 -0.69 7.10 6.95 96 -1.01 8.90 120 -0.74 11.37 144 -0.83 13.53 168 -0.55 15.60 192 0.35 17.37 216 0.58 19.43 240 0.89 21.05 264 0.49 21.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.56 5.48 5.39 48 -0.54 -0.73 6.92 7.12 72 -1.06 -1.09 9.25 9.36 96 -1.27 12.68 120 -1.32 15.86 144 -1.13 19.37 168 -0.39 22.99 192 0.76 25.82 216 0.89 29.58 240 0.63 32.58 264 0.37 33.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.14 0.87 10.09 9.60 0.95 0.95 48 2.56 1.96 12.94 12.66 0.96 0.96 72 3.92 3.38 17.24 16.96 0.95 0.95 96 4.75 21.99 0.93 120 5.12 27.26 0.90 144 6.32 33.96 0.87 168 7.43 38.18 0.83 192 6.76 42.83 0.78 216 7.18 48.61 0.72 240 3.57 51.53 0.70 264 1.69 55.98 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 93 12 UTC = 96 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.09 -0.90 12.93 12.49 0.97 0.97 48 -0.50 0.26 17.43 17.40 0.97 0.97 72 0.61 1.81 24.59 24.16 0.96 0.96 96 2.41 33.22 0.94 120 1.98 40.61 0.91 144 2.71 48.02 0.88 168 2.91 56.87 0.85 192 1.88 66.19 0.80 216 3.37 75.41 0.77 240 2.10 80.89 0.74 264 4.14 87.99 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 103 12 UTC = 106 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.98 -2.79 19.22 19.07 0.97 0.97 48 -4.04 -2.81 26.68 27.03 0.97 0.97 72 -4.96 -2.49 37.31 36.83 0.96 0.96 96 -3.43 47.92 0.94 120 -5.95 57.32 0.91 144 -6.04 64.75 0.89 168 -7.10 77.64 0.86 192 -8.57 91.63 0.83 216 -7.23 104.42 0.79 240 -8.00 113.29 0.76 264 -5.53 120.60 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 101 12 UTC = 106 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.45 1.58 1.57 0.88 0.89 48 -0.38 -0.47 1.78 1.75 0.91 0.92 72 -0.42 -0.47 2.00 2.00 0.91 0.91 96 -0.53 2.30 0.89 120 -0.59 2.58 0.86 144 -0.58 2.94 0.83 168 -0.68 3.35 0.80 192 -0.64 3.75 0.78 216 -0.63 4.19 0.74 240 -0.46 4.52 0.70 264 -0.12 4.78 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 125 12 UTC = 127 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.29 1.18 1.21 0.94 0.94 48 -0.37 -0.33 1.45 1.50 0.94 0.94 72 -0.40 -0.34 1.79 1.86 0.93 0.93 96 -0.41 2.25 0.91 120 -0.51 2.59 0.88 144 -0.57 2.95 0.85 168 -0.65 3.37 0.83 192 -0.74 3.78 0.80 216 -0.68 4.33 0.75 240 -0.67 4.46 0.73 264 -0.50 4.65 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 143 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.39 0.36 1.40 1.39 0.90 0.91 48 0.39 0.36 1.73 1.72 0.90 0.90 72 0.34 0.31 2.07 2.08 0.87 0.88 96 0.28 2.44 0.86 120 0.26 2.76 0.84 144 0.20 3.09 0.81 168 0.14 3.36 0.76 192 0.13 3.58 0.73 216 0.11 3.88 0.71 240 0.04 4.20 0.67 264 -0.09 4.49 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.95 3.81 3.74 48 -1.02 -1.11 4.27 4.20 72 -1.21 -1.24 4.89 4.88 96 -1.42 5.43 120 -1.65 5.97 144 -1.70 6.62 168 -1.58 7.23 192 -1.48 7.69 216 -1.40 8.19 240 -1.37 8.29 264 -1.45 8.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 123 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.48 4.65 4.66 48 -0.67 -0.61 5.71 5.78 72 -0.86 -0.75 6.92 7.19 96 -0.97 8.43 120 -1.06 9.41 144 -1.05 10.76 168 -0.93 11.74 192 -0.73 12.86 216 -0.56 13.79 240 -0.35 14.18 264 -0.32 14.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.65 4.88 4.92 48 -1.24 -1.09 6.36 6.51 72 -1.73 -1.53 8.23 8.34 96 -1.87 10.02 120 -1.87 11.53 144 -1.81 13.18 168 -1.74 14.75 192 -1.61 16.46 216 -1.37 18.54 240 -1.54 19.53 264 -1.62 21.04 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.58 -4.63 6.98 9.66 0.97 0.97 48 -2.35 -5.19 8.96 12.12 0.97 0.98 72 -2.75 -5.23 11.58 14.61 0.96 0.97 96 -5.18 18.23 0.94 120 -5.83 22.81 0.87 144 -8.45 30.45 0.81 168 -6.84 36.26 0.70 192 -6.71 43.92 0.58 216 -4.91 44.07 0.63 240 -1.24 43.83 0.66 264 4.12 45.68 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.47 -8.41 9.89 14.06 0.96 0.97 48 -3.99 -8.66 12.17 16.35 0.97 0.97 72 -4.46 -9.63 15.89 20.56 0.97 0.98 96 -9.53 27.16 0.95 120 -10.95 33.38 0.91 144 -12.52 40.70 0.84 168 -14.00 53.92 0.74 192 -12.72 68.19 0.71 216 -12.46 71.50 0.61 240 -9.48 71.13 0.67 264 -4.15 69.44 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.24 -13.60 14.92 20.14 0.97 0.97 48 -7.63 -14.36 18.87 23.58 0.98 0.98 72 -8.67 -16.87 24.25 31.14 0.98 0.98 96 -16.42 40.12 0.95 120 -18.37 48.52 0.91 144 -20.82 61.35 0.87 168 -24.75 80.53 0.75 192 -24.58 99.97 0.68 216 -25.99 108.70 0.57 240 -25.93 111.10 0.62 264 -18.86 112.07 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.26 1.31 1.34 0.87 0.86 48 -0.07 -0.16 1.44 1.44 0.92 0.89 72 0.02 -0.18 1.56 1.53 0.92 0.91 96 -0.09 1.72 0.88 120 -0.12 1.97 0.83 144 -0.02 2.36 0.79 168 -0.29 2.63 0.75 192 -0.07 3.10 0.71 216 -0.30 3.83 0.57 240 -0.34 3.85 0.60 264 -0.26 3.79 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.15 0.90 0.96 0.86 0.88 48 -0.05 -0.22 1.04 1.09 0.90 0.90 72 -0.11 -0.34 1.16 1.30 0.90 0.90 96 -0.35 1.50 0.86 120 -0.37 1.78 0.84 144 -0.37 1.88 0.83 168 -0.50 2.28 0.74 192 -0.48 2.79 0.67 216 -0.59 3.11 0.59 240 -0.61 3.10 0.56 264 -0.63 3.19 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.12 0.93 0.94 0.86 0.85 48 0.34 0.17 1.12 1.13 0.87 0.86 72 0.32 0.18 1.29 1.32 0.87 0.84 96 0.16 1.48 0.84 120 0.22 1.86 0.75 144 0.11 1.90 0.68 168 0.00 2.10 0.66 192 -0.16 2.48 0.61 216 -0.18 2.51 0.62 240 -0.30 2.79 0.53 264 -0.29 2.88 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.41 3.83 4.18 48 -0.45 -0.34 4.21 4.41 72 -0.57 -0.42 4.70 4.80 96 -0.51 5.31 120 -0.60 5.80 144 -0.54 6.55 168 -0.70 7.13 192 -0.68 8.12 216 -0.75 8.63 240 -1.02 8.78 264 -1.12 8.89 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.41 4.16 4.12 48 -0.66 -0.40 4.75 4.84 72 -0.68 -0.42 5.51 5.59 96 -0.48 6.16 120 -0.76 7.23 144 -0.43 8.37 168 -0.39 9.48 192 -0.75 10.79 216 -0.71 12.09 240 -0.84 12.52 264 -1.20 13.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.61 5.52 6.11 48 -0.86 -0.74 6.85 6.95 72 -0.88 -0.75 8.21 8.36 96 -0.85 9.65 120 -0.92 11.67 144 -1.03 13.43 168 -0.88 14.74 192 -1.12 17.33 216 -0.81 20.36 240 -1.02 21.33 264 -1.59 22.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 19 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.29 -2.10 9.15 9.07 0.74 0.69 48 -2.25 -1.82 9.53 9.42 0.83 0.81 72 -2.24 -2.17 9.74 9.59 0.84 0.84 96 -2.56 9.99 0.83 120 -2.50 10.25 0.82 144 -2.38 10.68 0.81 168 -2.31 11.50 0.79 192 -2.24 12.07 0.77 216 -2.03 12.58 0.75 240 -1.52 13.16 0.75 264 -0.84 13.63 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.26 -4.56 10.97 11.52 0.67 0.64 48 -4.93 -4.03 11.23 11.82 0.80 0.79 72 -5.31 -4.45 11.79 12.25 0.83 0.83 96 -5.02 12.73 0.84 120 -5.42 13.14 0.82 144 -5.77 13.85 0.80 168 -6.36 14.92 0.77 192 -6.90 16.05 0.75 216 -7.03 16.71 0.73 240 -6.67 16.97 0.72 264 -6.14 16.89 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.39 -11.19 15.89 16.54 0.72 0.69 48 -10.98 -10.64 16.31 16.78 0.82 0.80 72 -10.66 -10.27 16.93 17.03 0.82 0.83 96 -9.90 17.67 0.83 120 -9.87 18.70 0.81 144 -10.29 20.21 0.80 168 -11.64 22.11 0.77 192 -12.81 24.08 0.74 216 -13.41 24.92 0.72 240 -13.65 25.97 0.70 264 -13.34 26.85 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 -0.05 0.97 1.04 0.43 0.42 48 0.12 0.01 1.04 1.08 0.56 0.54 72 0.16 0.07 1.07 1.11 0.63 0.60 96 0.10 1.12 0.62 120 0.07 1.13 0.63 144 0.06 1.16 0.64 168 0.02 1.19 0.64 192 -0.01 1.24 0.61 216 -0.02 1.28 0.60 240 -0.02 1.36 0.58 264 0.00 1.38 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.32 0.84 0.85 0.52 0.51 48 -0.38 -0.39 0.92 0.93 0.58 0.56 72 -0.41 -0.39 0.99 0.96 0.59 0.59 96 -0.36 0.99 0.57 120 -0.36 1.02 0.56 144 -0.37 1.04 0.55 168 -0.40 1.12 0.52 192 -0.43 1.18 0.49 216 -0.43 1.23 0.46 240 -0.45 1.29 0.43 264 -0.47 1.33 0.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.02 0.65 0.65 0.60 0.61 48 0.09 0.04 0.73 0.74 0.64 0.68 72 0.12 0.09 0.77 0.83 0.65 0.69 96 0.12 0.89 0.68 120 0.16 0.96 0.66 144 0.15 0.99 0.66 168 0.11 1.00 0.66 192 0.08 1.04 0.62 216 0.03 1.09 0.58 240 -0.01 1.10 0.59 264 -0.04 1.13 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.64 3.43 3.43 48 -0.64 -0.70 3.74 3.71 72 -0.66 -0.72 3.95 3.89 96 -0.74 4.07 120 -0.73 4.18 144 -0.76 4.36 168 -0.79 4.61 192 -0.78 4.88 216 -0.71 5.18 240 -0.63 5.44 264 -0.65 5.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -1.00 3.88 3.84 48 -1.04 -1.06 4.35 4.31 72 -1.01 -1.01 4.63 4.73 96 -0.96 5.08 120 -0.92 5.42 144 -0.93 5.73 168 -0.97 6.05 192 -1.01 6.35 216 -1.04 6.53 240 -1.01 6.93 264 -1.09 7.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.03 -1.20 4.85 4.96 48 -1.26 -1.38 5.81 5.99 72 -1.38 -1.45 6.38 6.69 96 -1.58 7.05 120 -1.65 7.62 144 -1.78 8.14 168 -1.74 8.65 192 -1.80 9.45 216 -1.77 9.99 240 -1.90 10.51 264 -1.98 10.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -1.03 9.83 9.88 0.98 0.98 48 -0.21 -0.45 13.59 14.01 0.98 0.98 72 0.08 -0.11 19.16 19.40 0.97 0.97 96 -0.43 26.58 0.95 120 -0.40 34.94 0.92 144 0.62 44.06 0.87 168 -0.41 51.38 0.83 192 -2.84 61.30 0.78 216 -3.06 67.78 0.75 240 -5.08 73.59 0.73 264 -4.55 79.00 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 336 12 UTC = 337 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.11 -4.18 13.07 13.07 0.99 0.99 48 -4.08 -4.00 18.53 18.85 0.99 0.99 72 -4.17 -4.02 27.43 27.56 0.98 0.98 96 -5.43 39.71 0.96 120 -6.28 52.22 0.93 144 -5.97 66.17 0.89 168 -5.95 80.25 0.85 192 -7.75 94.77 0.81 216 -8.38 106.10 0.77 240 -11.93 116.41 0.74 264 -12.73 124.62 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 350 12 UTC = 351 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.18 -6.97 18.75 19.23 0.99 0.99 48 -6.80 -7.51 25.91 27.39 0.99 0.99 72 -7.85 -8.19 38.32 38.93 0.98 0.98 96 -10.37 55.31 0.96 120 -12.12 72.37 0.93 144 -12.07 91.20 0.89 168 -11.48 112.40 0.85 192 -12.90 130.87 0.81 216 -15.72 148.45 0.77 240 -19.51 164.81 0.73 264 -22.29 176.06 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 348 12 UTC = 349 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.41 1.59 1.61 0.92 0.92 48 -0.44 -0.44 1.81 1.82 0.94 0.94 72 -0.45 -0.46 2.10 2.13 0.93 0.93 96 -0.52 2.59 0.91 120 -0.58 3.05 0.89 144 -0.64 3.57 0.85 168 -0.64 4.16 0.82 192 -0.57 4.76 0.77 216 -0.50 5.23 0.73 240 -0.54 5.60 0.70 264 -0.63 5.81 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 381 12 UTC = 379 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.21 1.06 1.07 0.96 0.96 48 -0.23 -0.25 1.34 1.38 0.96 0.96 72 -0.26 -0.27 1.73 1.78 0.95 0.94 96 -0.35 2.27 0.92 120 -0.43 2.78 0.89 144 -0.48 3.35 0.85 168 -0.46 3.93 0.81 192 -0.47 4.40 0.77 216 -0.57 4.91 0.73 240 -0.65 5.23 0.70 264 -0.69 5.46 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 408 12 UTC = 405 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.36 0.33 1.25 1.24 0.93 0.93 48 0.37 0.33 1.53 1.54 0.92 0.92 72 0.37 0.34 1.87 1.89 0.91 0.90 96 0.38 2.29 0.87 120 0.39 2.67 0.84 144 0.39 3.05 0.80 168 0.42 3.33 0.76 192 0.48 3.59 0.73 216 0.46 3.83 0.69 240 0.41 4.05 0.66 264 0.27 4.28 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.83 4.00 4.02 48 -0.91 -0.95 4.56 4.60 72 -1.01 -1.05 5.33 5.37 96 -1.10 6.26 120 -1.19 7.24 144 -1.29 8.16 168 -1.15 9.06 192 -1.03 9.80 216 -1.02 10.29 240 -1.00 10.76 264 -1.15 11.20 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 366 12 UTC = 365 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.63 4.51 4.57 48 -0.74 -0.77 5.68 5.80 72 -0.89 -0.86 7.15 7.35 96 -1.00 9.04 120 -1.01 10.72 144 -0.97 12.45 168 -0.91 14.01 192 -0.77 15.42 216 -0.77 16.50 240 -0.63 17.28 264 -0.52 18.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 394 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.60 5.11 5.11 48 -0.91 -0.85 6.68 6.88 72 -1.20 -1.13 8.91 8.97 96 -1.21 11.60 120 -1.21 13.96 144 -1.23 16.47 168 -1.07 19.09 192 -1.09 21.19 216 -0.92 23.21 240 -0.91 25.05 264 -0.91 26.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 394 12 UTC = 393 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.46 -1.50 7.69 8.12 0.97 0.97 48 -1.70 -1.82 9.95 10.63 0.97 0.97 72 -2.40 -2.31 12.96 13.66 0.96 0.96 96 -2.92 18.81 0.94 120 -2.71 23.19 0.91 144 -2.84 28.67 0.86 168 -1.94 36.46 0.75 192 0.29 41.93 0.67 216 2.35 45.54 0.64 240 4.28 50.02 0.60 264 5.38 52.50 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.09 -6.07 10.34 12.42 0.97 0.97 48 -3.62 -5.11 13.33 14.79 0.97 0.97 72 -3.72 -5.01 18.08 19.61 0.97 0.96 96 -4.37 27.89 0.94 120 -2.71 33.83 0.91 144 -1.54 40.65 0.87 168 -0.95 54.27 0.77 192 -0.08 64.46 0.70 216 0.57 69.85 0.64 240 2.10 75.10 0.60 264 3.09 76.88 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.30 -9.08 15.85 18.06 0.97 0.97 48 -6.83 -8.63 20.98 22.46 0.98 0.97 72 -7.96 -9.42 27.85 29.47 0.97 0.97 96 -8.52 40.87 0.94 120 -6.25 49.51 0.91 144 -3.70 61.33 0.86 168 -4.59 80.21 0.78 192 -6.70 95.95 0.70 216 -5.89 103.41 0.66 240 -6.68 111.09 0.61 264 -6.51 114.07 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.53 1.59 1.55 0.88 0.86 48 -0.41 -0.42 1.70 1.65 0.91 0.89 72 -0.34 -0.38 1.83 1.77 0.92 0.88 96 -0.30 1.93 0.87 120 -0.17 2.18 0.84 144 -0.19 2.49 0.78 168 -0.29 2.81 0.73 192 -0.32 3.28 0.68 216 -0.44 3.70 0.60 240 -0.41 3.86 0.55 264 -0.42 3.80 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.92 0.96 0.89 0.90 48 -0.01 -0.02 1.10 1.14 0.90 0.91 72 -0.02 -0.03 1.29 1.38 0.89 0.89 96 0.01 1.71 0.86 120 0.04 1.97 0.83 144 0.10 2.26 0.78 168 0.11 2.60 0.73 192 0.03 3.04 0.64 216 -0.01 3.20 0.62 240 -0.10 3.30 0.58 264 -0.14 3.47 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.01 1.03 1.09 0.87 0.89 48 0.14 0.01 1.26 1.33 0.87 0.88 72 0.13 0.03 1.54 1.63 0.85 0.86 96 -0.02 1.88 0.84 120 -0.03 2.24 0.79 144 -0.08 2.47 0.74 168 -0.19 2.77 0.71 192 -0.30 3.04 0.68 216 -0.34 3.02 0.69 240 -0.46 3.26 0.67 264 -0.46 3.40 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.85 4.23 4.32 48 -0.94 -0.89 4.56 4.65 72 -0.94 -0.87 4.99 5.08 96 -0.91 5.56 120 -0.92 6.09 144 -0.85 7.00 168 -0.79 7.73 192 -0.82 8.57 216 -0.78 8.95 240 -0.93 8.93 264 -0.99 9.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.53 4.28 4.33 48 -0.63 -0.56 4.96 4.99 72 -0.63 -0.50 5.91 5.81 96 -0.54 6.67 120 -0.68 7.67 144 -0.57 9.02 168 -0.45 10.11 192 -0.69 11.33 216 -0.45 12.29 240 -0.58 12.53 264 -0.68 13.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2013 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.75 5.72 5.81 48 -0.72 -0.78 7.03 6.86 72 -0.59 -0.68 8.58 7.96 96 -0.72 9.76 120 -0.89 11.58 144 -0.75 13.59 168 -0.58 15.31 192 -0.63 17.77 216 -0.40 19.79 240 -0.48 20.56 264 -0.56 21.31 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 45 ---------------------------------------------------------