VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY FEBRUARY 2014 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.07 1.08 1.11 0.99 0.99 17.0 17.4 48 0.07 0.08 1.84 1.87 0.98 0.98 25.8 26.2 72 0.04 0.06 2.69 2.78 0.96 0.96 33.9 34.7 96 0.01 3.81 0.92 42.9 120 -0.04 5.00 0.87 51.5 144 -0.08 6.07 0.81 58.8 168 -0.14 7.11 0.74 64.5 192 -0.15 8.25 0.65 69.6 216 -0.21 9.24 0.56 73.4 240 -0.22 9.94 0.50 76.5 264 -0.13 10.33 0.46 78.2 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.70 7.54 7.68 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.8 48 -1.00 -1.04 15.21 15.16 0.99 0.99 17.6 17.6 72 -1.34 -1.35 24.57 25.03 0.98 0.98 25.2 25.7 96 -1.89 36.78 0.95 33.3 120 -2.69 49.75 0.91 40.5 144 -3.41 62.26 0.86 46.8 168 -3.78 74.61 0.80 52.4 192 -3.62 87.15 0.72 57.1 216 -3.79 97.75 0.65 60.7 240 -3.46 107.29 0.57 63.5 264 -3.26 112.30 0.53 65.3 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.24 9.28 9.46 1.00 1.00 7.6 7.5 48 -0.53 -0.70 18.84 18.63 0.99 0.99 13.1 12.9 72 -1.06 -1.24 30.50 31.25 0.98 0.98 18.9 19.2 96 -1.79 45.73 0.96 25.6 120 -2.82 62.18 0.92 31.8 144 -4.52 78.37 0.88 37.3 168 -4.73 94.81 0.82 42.5 192 -3.94 110.00 0.75 47.0 216 -3.52 123.14 0.68 50.3 240 -2.98 137.38 0.60 53.8 264 -2.88 145.53 0.54 55.6 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.52 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.05 0.94 0.95 0.98 0.98 72 -0.07 -0.08 1.38 1.43 0.95 0.95 96 -0.10 1.93 0.91 120 -0.14 2.46 0.85 144 -0.19 2.94 0.78 168 -0.15 3.42 0.70 192 -0.13 3.85 0.62 216 -0.10 4.18 0.54 240 -0.11 4.52 0.46 264 -0.14 4.74 0.41 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.08 0.69 0.69 0.99 0.99 48 0.11 0.10 1.13 1.11 0.97 0.97 72 0.15 0.14 1.57 1.59 0.94 0.94 96 0.17 2.05 0.90 120 0.19 2.49 0.85 144 0.16 2.91 0.79 168 0.16 3.30 0.73 192 0.20 3.65 0.66 216 0.23 3.96 0.60 240 0.27 4.26 0.54 264 0.28 4.40 0.50 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.02 2.42 2.45 48 0.00 -0.01 4.37 4.37 72 -0.03 -0.06 6.20 6.30 96 -0.12 8.11 120 -0.13 9.98 144 -0.14 11.68 168 -0.12 13.29 192 -0.12 14.75 216 -0.07 15.81 240 -0.12 16.67 264 -0.18 17.16 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.10 3.29 3.28 48 -0.20 -0.21 5.43 5.39 72 -0.23 -0.28 7.70 7.73 96 -0.29 10.19 120 -0.27 12.64 144 -0.37 14.98 168 -0.41 17.33 192 -0.41 19.45 216 -0.49 21.05 240 -0.58 22.69 264 -0.60 23.59 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 3.07 3.08 0.98 0.97 26.2 26.7 48 0.17 0.13 4.52 4.42 0.95 0.95 34.8 35.4 72 0.40 0.28 5.44 5.40 0.93 0.93 39.9 40.5 96 0.44 6.42 0.89 44.3 120 0.39 7.33 0.86 47.5 144 0.51 8.28 0.83 51.0 168 0.68 9.50 0.78 54.1 192 0.71 10.49 0.73 56.7 216 1.01 11.28 0.69 59.0 240 1.17 12.17 0.66 60.7 264 1.02 13.15 0.63 62.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.38 1.33 4.80 4.77 0.99 0.99 19.7 19.7 48 1.50 1.36 7.26 7.11 0.97 0.97 28.0 27.8 72 1.34 1.23 9.59 9.36 0.94 0.94 33.9 33.6 96 0.99 11.43 0.91 37.9 120 0.41 13.74 0.87 41.9 144 -0.04 15.95 0.82 45.3 168 -0.53 18.09 0.77 48.8 192 -0.99 20.28 0.71 52.1 216 -1.16 22.55 0.64 55.5 240 -1.35 24.98 0.58 58.5 264 -1.70 26.82 0.51 60.4 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.41 0.42 0.96 0.96 48 0.08 0.08 0.67 0.68 0.90 0.91 72 0.14 0.12 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.85 96 0.14 0.98 0.81 120 0.16 1.08 0.76 144 0.15 1.16 0.72 168 0.15 1.25 0.68 192 0.15 1.34 0.63 216 0.15 1.43 0.58 240 0.14 1.50 0.53 264 0.13 1.55 0.51 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 0.36 0.35 0.95 0.95 48 0.00 -0.01 0.53 0.52 0.89 0.90 72 0.02 0.01 0.67 0.65 0.82 0.83 96 0.01 0.76 0.77 120 0.01 0.85 0.70 144 0.01 0.92 0.64 168 -0.01 0.99 0.59 192 -0.01 1.04 0.55 216 -0.03 1.11 0.48 240 -0.02 1.20 0.41 264 -0.01 1.24 0.37 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 1.56 1.54 48 -0.04 -0.06 2.36 2.30 72 -0.06 -0.08 2.86 2.81 96 -0.11 3.19 120 -0.15 3.54 144 -0.19 3.86 168 -0.20 4.20 192 -0.23 4.52 216 -0.25 4.83 240 -0.22 5.07 264 -0.20 5.26 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.45 3.32 3.27 48 -0.72 -0.72 4.95 4.91 72 -0.88 -0.85 6.15 6.09 96 -0.97 7.05 120 -1.02 7.91 144 -1.07 8.60 168 -1.08 9.33 192 -1.00 10.09 216 -0.96 10.87 240 -0.97 11.66 264 -0.94 12.30 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.02 0.88 0.84 0.99 0.99 13.9 13.6 48 -0.06 -0.05 1.70 1.63 0.98 0.98 23.8 23.3 72 -0.07 -0.05 2.61 2.55 0.94 0.94 32.8 32.0 96 -0.03 3.59 0.89 40.1 120 0.01 4.73 0.80 48.0 144 0.02 5.89 0.69 55.0 168 0.03 6.93 0.57 60.8 192 0.03 7.70 0.47 65.0 216 0.05 8.33 0.38 67.7 240 0.01 8.89 0.28 70.1 264 -0.03 9.32 0.21 71.7 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.54 1.49 8.24 7.84 1.00 1.00 10.9 10.7 48 2.49 2.51 16.55 16.21 0.98 0.98 19.5 19.2 72 3.12 3.19 26.74 26.26 0.96 0.96 27.8 27.4 96 3.78 38.26 0.91 35.3 120 4.20 50.96 0.84 42.7 144 4.23 64.33 0.74 49.9 168 4.28 75.86 0.63 55.6 192 3.97 84.78 0.53 60.3 216 3.76 91.86 0.45 63.1 240 3.41 99.23 0.37 65.2 264 2.61 105.90 0.28 67.0 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.37 1.38 10.75 10.29 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.2 48 2.16 2.33 21.53 21.27 0.98 0.98 16.6 16.4 72 2.55 2.85 35.38 34.88 0.96 0.96 24.2 23.9 96 3.09 51.54 0.91 31.6 120 3.14 69.24 0.84 38.9 144 2.49 87.72 0.74 46.0 168 1.96 104.91 0.62 52.0 192 0.97 117.04 0.52 56.6 216 0.40 125.41 0.45 59.3 240 0.48 135.42 0.38 61.3 264 -0.76 145.59 0.29 63.2 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.53 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 0.05 0.05 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.96 72 0.05 0.06 1.48 1.46 0.90 0.90 96 0.06 1.96 0.83 120 0.05 2.42 0.74 144 0.03 2.88 0.63 168 0.01 3.29 0.51 192 -0.02 3.60 0.41 216 -0.06 3.79 0.34 240 -0.06 3.93 0.29 264 -0.11 4.08 0.25 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.04 0.64 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 -0.09 -0.09 1.17 1.15 0.94 0.94 72 -0.14 -0.13 1.69 1.66 0.87 0.88 96 -0.18 2.17 0.79 120 -0.23 2.62 0.69 144 -0.29 3.07 0.58 168 -0.32 3.40 0.48 192 -0.34 3.69 0.39 216 -0.33 3.92 0.31 240 -0.30 4.05 0.26 264 -0.28 4.13 0.23 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.11 2.33 2.28 48 -0.16 -0.17 4.22 4.17 72 -0.20 -0.24 6.09 6.00 96 -0.31 7.79 120 -0.39 9.51 144 -0.46 11.27 168 -0.55 12.69 192 -0.64 13.80 216 -0.69 14.45 240 -0.61 15.01 264 -0.62 15.59 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.22 3.36 3.28 48 -0.42 -0.40 5.85 5.78 72 -0.54 -0.53 8.52 8.41 96 -0.64 11.19 120 -0.72 13.88 144 -0.82 16.66 168 -0.83 19.14 192 -0.90 20.99 216 -0.89 21.86 240 -0.79 22.81 264 -0.74 23.73 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.14 -2.65 9.34 9.43 0.98 0.98 48 -3.89 -3.15 13.40 13.18 0.97 0.97 72 -1.42 -2.61 17.76 18.65 0.96 0.96 96 -2.53 27.23 0.90 120 -1.35 35.43 0.83 144 -1.77 43.72 0.82 168 -5.24 51.56 0.79 192 -5.06 58.29 0.75 216 -7.79 63.38 0.71 240 -7.47 67.71 0.68 264 -4.68 65.86 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.33 -8.21 12.27 13.13 0.99 0.99 48 -8.54 -9.05 18.83 19.17 0.98 0.98 72 -6.16 -8.28 25.61 26.89 0.96 0.96 96 -8.01 38.74 0.94 120 -7.03 54.76 0.88 144 -7.61 71.27 0.83 168 -8.42 80.30 0.81 192 -6.98 93.01 0.78 216 -5.18 96.70 0.76 240 -4.68 106.34 0.73 264 -2.64 102.81 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.81 -11.20 15.40 17.46 0.99 0.99 48 -10.99 -13.05 23.59 25.60 0.98 0.98 72 -10.70 -13.57 33.77 35.39 0.97 0.97 96 -14.53 50.01 0.95 120 -11.96 72.22 0.91 144 -8.96 94.10 0.87 168 -3.44 108.54 0.84 192 -0.07 122.38 0.84 216 5.90 132.41 0.80 240 7.86 146.44 0.76 264 8.53 143.17 0.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.53 1.85 1.98 0.91 0.92 48 -0.32 -0.39 2.05 2.24 0.93 0.92 72 -0.14 -0.24 2.39 2.54 0.92 0.92 96 -0.14 3.11 0.89 120 -0.12 3.88 0.82 144 -0.22 4.82 0.79 168 -0.27 5.38 0.75 192 -0.37 6.01 0.73 216 -0.20 6.36 0.71 240 0.01 6.86 0.64 264 0.13 6.85 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.22 0.99 1.00 0.94 0.95 48 -0.19 -0.27 1.28 1.34 0.95 0.95 72 -0.31 -0.33 1.67 1.69 0.94 0.93 96 -0.37 2.16 0.91 120 -0.36 2.92 0.85 144 -0.25 3.63 0.81 168 0.05 4.08 0.78 192 0.09 4.57 0.77 216 0.37 4.84 0.72 240 0.27 5.28 0.66 264 0.18 5.25 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.49 0.44 1.34 1.32 0.93 0.93 48 0.54 0.47 1.64 1.62 0.91 0.91 72 0.57 0.50 2.06 2.01 0.87 0.88 96 0.51 2.48 0.83 120 0.56 2.92 0.77 144 0.69 3.37 0.72 168 0.90 3.80 0.64 192 1.07 4.20 0.57 216 1.24 4.42 0.56 240 1.56 4.79 0.54 264 1.53 4.78 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.84 4.19 4.22 48 -0.99 -0.89 4.92 4.89 72 -1.06 -0.96 5.70 5.82 96 -1.06 7.00 120 -1.03 8.06 144 -0.81 9.49 168 -0.12 10.62 192 0.09 11.40 216 0.22 12.00 240 -0.10 12.51 264 0.09 12.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.45 4.70 4.71 48 -0.58 -0.51 6.00 5.96 72 -0.62 -0.57 7.37 7.58 96 -0.62 9.48 120 -0.57 11.51 144 -0.48 14.36 168 -0.41 15.63 192 -0.31 16.82 216 -0.12 17.66 240 -0.66 19.08 264 -0.78 18.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.57 5.57 5.47 48 -0.91 -0.69 7.20 7.25 72 -0.98 -0.83 9.32 9.14 96 -0.79 11.76 120 -0.27 15.06 144 -0.03 19.02 168 0.12 21.21 192 0.11 23.07 216 0.11 24.17 240 -0.47 25.93 264 -0.74 25.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.97 -6.37 10.67 11.21 0.98 0.98 48 -9.19 -10.52 16.05 17.21 0.97 0.97 72 -11.41 -12.90 23.90 25.02 0.95 0.95 96 -17.21 32.56 0.90 120 -22.34 41.69 0.84 144 -19.53 48.91 0.79 168 -23.24 62.87 0.69 192 -22.20 69.73 0.67 216 -14.69 74.29 0.63 240 -3.72 85.96 0.54 264 -4.15 85.86 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.39 -10.87 15.54 15.37 0.99 0.99 48 -16.38 -16.97 23.53 24.06 0.98 0.98 72 -21.03 -22.48 33.82 35.37 0.95 0.95 96 -25.96 45.56 0.93 120 -30.96 56.91 0.89 144 -29.58 71.51 0.84 168 -34.77 88.81 0.76 192 -36.64 102.23 0.68 216 -22.97 105.16 0.70 240 -4.93 120.64 0.66 264 -11.17 127.14 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -12.00 -13.18 18.23 18.98 0.99 0.99 48 -18.39 -20.35 29.68 30.20 0.98 0.98 72 -23.12 -27.68 41.49 44.93 0.96 0.96 96 -29.29 57.40 0.94 120 -32.21 75.15 0.90 144 -31.68 96.54 0.85 168 -40.98 123.63 0.77 192 -45.11 142.80 0.70 216 -19.55 145.10 0.74 240 4.02 174.17 0.68 264 -5.96 182.56 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.38 1.35 1.28 0.89 0.89 48 -0.66 -0.51 1.51 1.45 0.90 0.90 72 -0.80 -0.67 1.74 1.67 0.89 0.89 96 -0.67 2.06 0.87 120 -0.70 2.29 0.84 144 -0.71 2.81 0.77 168 -0.67 3.21 0.69 192 -0.90 3.61 0.62 216 -0.94 3.76 0.68 240 -0.67 4.18 0.63 264 -0.86 4.70 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.16 0.92 0.91 0.96 0.96 48 -0.31 -0.28 1.31 1.28 0.95 0.94 72 -0.38 -0.48 1.71 1.76 0.91 0.91 96 -0.40 2.20 0.88 120 -0.31 2.71 0.81 144 -0.52 3.32 0.77 168 -0.69 3.73 0.67 192 -0.80 4.22 0.65 216 -0.15 4.61 0.63 240 0.29 5.18 0.57 264 -0.11 5.62 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.66 0.56 1.43 1.40 0.93 0.92 48 0.66 0.63 1.71 1.78 0.90 0.89 72 0.73 0.66 2.11 2.18 0.84 0.83 96 0.71 2.54 0.80 120 0.80 2.95 0.73 144 1.05 3.53 0.65 168 0.86 3.66 0.60 192 0.63 3.69 0.60 216 0.61 4.04 0.52 240 0.64 4.34 0.46 264 0.52 4.54 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.49 4.26 4.31 48 -0.62 -0.43 4.96 5.00 72 -0.61 -0.41 5.84 5.98 96 -0.48 6.98 120 -0.20 7.97 144 -0.33 9.05 168 -0.31 10.50 192 -0.94 10.82 216 -1.16 11.42 240 -0.55 12.54 264 -0.54 12.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.44 4.85 4.91 48 -0.44 -0.48 6.21 6.34 72 -0.48 -0.35 7.80 8.14 96 -0.50 9.81 120 -0.15 11.22 144 -0.10 13.19 168 -0.09 14.90 192 -0.62 16.14 216 -1.16 17.13 240 -0.74 18.89 264 -0.88 20.02 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.25 5.43 5.52 48 -0.39 -0.17 7.24 7.09 72 -0.26 -0.13 9.50 9.63 96 -0.41 11.87 120 -0.28 14.82 144 0.23 18.26 168 0.57 21.15 192 0.14 23.65 216 -0.12 25.36 240 0.24 28.07 264 0.20 30.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 5.49 3.59 12.89 11.76 0.95 0.95 48 5.82 4.35 15.29 14.29 0.96 0.96 72 5.43 4.77 18.60 17.71 0.94 0.94 96 4.23 21.94 0.92 120 3.61 27.78 0.89 144 4.52 34.13 0.85 168 4.73 38.72 0.82 192 8.55 41.26 0.81 216 11.11 46.85 0.74 240 8.77 46.24 0.74 264 6.29 50.84 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 93 12 UTC = 96 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.99 1.07 13.70 13.70 0.97 0.96 48 2.03 1.58 17.81 17.93 0.97 0.97 72 1.29 1.41 23.24 22.86 0.95 0.95 96 0.23 29.30 0.94 120 0.38 37.19 0.91 144 3.63 46.62 0.88 168 5.03 55.71 0.84 192 7.76 61.53 0.78 216 8.84 68.28 0.73 240 7.50 74.40 0.73 264 7.44 78.60 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 104 12 UTC = 106 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -1.10 17.76 18.33 0.96 0.96 48 -2.90 -3.56 23.40 23.68 0.97 0.97 72 -7.13 -7.68 31.56 31.33 0.96 0.96 96 -10.30 39.39 0.95 120 -10.40 48.94 0.92 144 -6.82 58.70 0.90 168 -6.66 70.40 0.87 192 -8.33 78.59 0.81 216 -9.67 90.47 0.75 240 -11.69 103.46 0.71 264 -10.58 111.96 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 102 12 UTC = 105 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.41 1.90 1.97 0.88 0.89 48 -0.20 -0.34 2.14 2.20 0.91 0.92 72 -0.11 -0.25 2.42 2.47 0.91 0.92 96 -0.16 2.79 0.90 120 -0.07 3.23 0.88 144 0.10 3.72 0.85 168 0.24 4.23 0.81 192 0.36 4.52 0.76 216 0.46 4.77 0.70 240 0.67 5.13 0.67 264 0.86 5.53 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.24 1.18 1.17 0.92 0.93 48 -0.39 -0.38 1.44 1.43 0.94 0.94 72 -0.49 -0.51 1.69 1.70 0.93 0.93 96 -0.57 2.04 0.91 120 -0.58 2.41 0.88 144 -0.50 2.79 0.84 168 -0.51 3.26 0.82 192 -0.68 3.50 0.81 216 -0.68 3.93 0.75 240 -0.64 4.26 0.71 264 -0.55 4.59 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 143 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.59 0.59 1.55 1.56 0.90 0.89 48 0.56 0.58 1.85 1.88 0.90 0.89 72 0.39 0.43 2.12 2.22 0.88 0.86 96 0.40 2.50 0.85 120 0.40 2.80 0.83 144 0.34 3.10 0.78 168 0.20 3.40 0.75 192 0.05 3.53 0.76 216 -0.16 3.90 0.70 240 -0.37 4.31 0.64 264 -0.36 4.51 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.89 3.93 3.72 48 -1.15 -1.04 4.38 4.13 72 -1.21 -1.12 4.95 4.69 96 -1.19 5.30 120 -1.10 6.12 144 -1.07 6.93 168 -1.24 7.43 192 -1.28 7.72 216 -1.22 8.22 240 -1.12 8.66 264 -1.02 9.08 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 123 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.13 4.76 4.75 48 -0.47 -0.19 5.74 5.74 72 -0.58 -0.36 6.71 6.73 96 -0.42 7.85 120 -0.49 9.10 144 -0.54 10.65 168 -0.57 11.65 192 -0.79 12.27 216 -0.92 13.16 240 -0.92 13.80 264 -0.59 14.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.56 5.26 5.20 48 -0.91 -0.81 6.51 6.58 72 -1.14 -1.10 7.80 7.89 96 -1.20 9.54 120 -1.33 11.22 144 -1.36 12.91 168 -1.49 14.13 192 -1.62 15.16 216 -1.86 16.91 240 -2.00 18.64 264 -1.59 19.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.43 -3.43 7.00 9.55 0.97 0.97 48 -2.07 -2.56 9.19 12.05 0.97 0.97 72 -1.74 -2.19 12.04 14.71 0.95 0.95 96 -1.42 20.06 0.93 120 -1.92 26.91 0.84 144 -2.49 31.81 0.84 168 2.19 34.84 0.81 192 6.86 43.56 0.69 216 7.74 48.71 0.53 240 3.84 52.36 0.54 264 0.37 56.27 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.99 -8.00 10.72 13.59 0.98 0.97 48 -5.73 -6.63 12.53 15.68 0.98 0.98 72 -5.44 -6.40 15.79 17.89 0.97 0.96 96 -6.95 24.12 0.96 120 -8.92 33.44 0.92 144 -11.29 41.57 0.85 168 -8.02 53.63 0.84 192 0.46 59.20 0.73 216 1.31 70.01 0.59 240 -6.58 78.81 0.51 264 -8.61 89.03 0.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.29 -12.44 14.94 19.48 0.97 0.97 48 -10.29 -11.04 18.93 22.40 0.98 0.98 72 -11.45 -11.42 24.76 25.88 0.97 0.97 96 -12.51 34.47 0.95 120 -17.36 46.04 0.94 144 -21.53 58.99 0.91 168 -20.70 81.27 0.84 192 -9.76 86.91 0.76 216 -8.28 101.62 0.63 240 -18.90 117.95 0.52 264 -17.74 134.52 0.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.24 1.31 1.33 0.84 0.84 48 -0.03 -0.14 1.46 1.45 0.87 0.89 72 0.00 -0.07 1.65 1.59 0.88 0.89 96 -0.03 1.88 0.87 120 -0.09 2.22 0.78 144 -0.07 2.47 0.73 168 -0.03 2.97 0.71 192 0.19 3.15 0.69 216 0.11 3.93 0.53 240 -0.20 4.16 0.50 264 -0.24 4.46 0.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.26 0.84 0.96 0.88 0.84 48 -0.18 -0.25 0.99 1.04 0.90 0.88 72 -0.19 -0.27 1.17 1.14 0.90 0.89 96 -0.28 1.29 0.89 120 -0.44 1.67 0.87 144 -0.57 2.01 0.78 168 -0.72 2.43 0.75 192 -0.47 2.38 0.66 216 -0.46 2.67 0.59 240 -0.70 3.25 0.48 264 -0.51 3.49 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.14 0.90 1.01 0.88 0.88 48 -0.02 0.02 1.06 1.20 0.90 0.87 72 -0.20 -0.11 1.29 1.37 0.89 0.90 96 -0.21 1.63 0.88 120 -0.27 1.85 0.83 144 -0.32 2.36 0.78 168 -0.34 2.71 0.74 192 -0.68 2.92 0.70 216 -0.53 3.13 0.67 240 -0.35 3.18 0.71 264 -0.31 3.29 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.58 3.82 3.75 48 -0.58 -0.64 4.40 4.14 72 -0.66 -0.75 4.99 4.85 96 -0.86 5.61 120 -0.94 6.23 144 -0.96 6.95 168 -1.10 7.78 192 -1.08 8.03 216 -0.93 9.12 240 -1.02 9.45 264 -1.18 9.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 22 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.66 3.97 4.09 48 -0.63 -0.72 4.50 4.73 72 -0.59 -0.91 5.38 5.72 96 -0.94 6.57 120 -0.99 7.70 144 -1.08 9.37 168 -1.41 10.49 192 -1.44 10.86 216 -1.17 12.33 240 -1.41 13.06 264 -1.65 13.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 23 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.94 5.24 5.41 48 -0.77 -1.08 6.46 6.40 72 -0.99 -1.44 7.99 7.83 96 -1.73 9.55 120 -2.10 11.02 144 -2.21 14.15 168 -2.03 16.33 192 -1.89 17.54 216 -1.58 19.00 240 -1.52 20.83 264 -2.12 21.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 23 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.49 -2.55 8.89 9.08 0.74 0.66 48 -2.74 -2.59 9.59 9.46 0.80 0.76 72 -3.04 -2.82 10.13 9.91 0.78 0.76 96 -2.96 10.28 0.76 120 -3.02 10.79 0.76 144 -2.75 11.52 0.77 168 -2.86 12.21 0.76 192 -2.80 12.87 0.75 216 -2.71 13.58 0.72 240 -2.39 14.55 0.68 264 -1.89 15.17 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.99 -4.76 11.08 11.25 0.64 0.59 48 -4.48 -4.04 11.49 11.55 0.76 0.72 72 -4.93 -4.19 11.88 11.83 0.77 0.75 96 -4.57 12.14 0.77 120 -4.94 12.61 0.78 144 -4.99 13.26 0.77 168 -5.62 14.18 0.75 192 -6.12 15.08 0.73 216 -6.35 15.83 0.70 240 -6.37 16.66 0.66 264 -5.99 16.92 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.91 -11.56 16.27 16.79 0.68 0.61 48 -10.14 -10.68 16.13 16.83 0.78 0.75 72 -9.45 -9.77 16.34 17.16 0.80 0.77 96 -9.13 17.65 0.77 120 -9.18 18.64 0.75 144 -9.40 19.82 0.73 168 -10.30 21.49 0.71 192 -11.34 22.93 0.69 216 -11.93 24.49 0.66 240 -12.07 26.09 0.64 264 -11.59 27.14 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.13 1.00 1.01 0.51 0.43 48 -0.12 -0.06 1.01 1.05 0.60 0.53 72 -0.06 -0.01 1.04 1.06 0.66 0.60 96 0.03 1.09 0.62 120 0.05 1.12 0.65 144 0.06 1.18 0.60 168 0.04 1.25 0.59 192 0.06 1.29 0.56 216 0.04 1.30 0.57 240 0.01 1.36 0.55 264 -0.01 1.39 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.28 0.81 0.84 0.54 0.56 48 -0.17 -0.31 0.87 0.91 0.62 0.64 72 -0.19 -0.35 0.92 0.97 0.66 0.67 96 -0.36 1.00 0.69 120 -0.35 1.05 0.69 144 -0.36 1.11 0.69 168 -0.35 1.18 0.65 192 -0.37 1.22 0.64 216 -0.38 1.28 0.62 240 -0.38 1.36 0.58 264 -0.36 1.42 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.03 0.67 0.65 0.53 0.58 48 0.00 0.03 0.74 0.73 0.63 0.64 72 0.08 0.12 0.78 0.80 0.66 0.65 96 0.15 0.85 0.66 120 0.15 0.90 0.65 144 0.14 0.93 0.65 168 0.13 0.97 0.63 192 0.10 1.00 0.62 216 0.07 1.06 0.59 240 0.06 1.10 0.57 264 0.05 1.13 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.67 3.66 3.49 48 -0.74 -0.77 4.06 3.85 72 -0.82 -0.82 4.34 4.10 96 -0.81 4.28 120 -0.77 4.51 144 -0.87 4.74 168 -1.00 5.03 192 -1.14 5.22 216 -1.11 5.63 240 -1.13 5.92 264 -1.03 5.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.85 4.10 3.88 48 -0.97 -0.92 4.49 4.29 72 -1.01 -0.96 4.86 4.73 96 -0.96 4.98 120 -1.05 5.29 144 -1.03 5.68 168 -0.98 6.06 192 -1.00 6.32 216 -1.04 6.68 240 -1.10 6.95 264 -1.06 7.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.32 -1.26 5.06 5.15 48 -1.66 -1.64 6.01 6.19 72 -1.82 -1.81 6.54 6.84 96 -2.03 7.42 120 -2.21 8.03 144 -2.35 8.54 168 -2.29 9.12 192 -2.33 9.58 216 -2.30 9.90 240 -2.27 10.64 264 -2.17 11.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -1.24 11.24 11.16 0.98 0.97 48 -1.35 -1.98 15.15 15.24 0.97 0.97 72 -1.38 -2.08 20.40 20.82 0.96 0.96 96 -2.93 28.01 0.93 120 -3.71 36.19 0.90 144 -3.91 44.31 0.88 168 -5.86 52.85 0.84 192 -4.93 59.28 0.80 216 -4.30 65.18 0.77 240 -3.30 71.46 0.74 264 -3.46 73.48 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 336 12 UTC = 342 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.36 -4.72 14.01 14.16 0.98 0.98 48 -5.62 -6.06 19.88 20.24 0.98 0.98 72 -6.10 -6.83 27.66 28.30 0.97 0.97 96 -7.57 38.99 0.95 120 -8.05 51.12 0.92 144 -7.87 64.94 0.88 168 -9.19 76.40 0.85 192 -8.89 87.00 0.82 216 -7.41 93.91 0.79 240 -5.69 105.06 0.75 264 -7.23 110.22 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 353 12 UTC = 356 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.26 -7.52 17.77 18.88 0.98 0.98 48 -8.99 -10.33 25.38 26.30 0.98 0.98 72 -11.08 -13.02 35.44 36.74 0.97 0.97 96 -14.22 49.53 0.95 120 -13.77 66.03 0.92 144 -12.78 84.02 0.89 168 -14.00 100.32 0.86 192 -14.95 114.29 0.83 216 -11.79 124.53 0.80 240 -9.41 141.41 0.76 264 -11.56 149.57 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 351 12 UTC = 356 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.42 1.73 1.80 0.91 0.91 48 -0.38 -0.41 1.94 2.02 0.93 0.93 72 -0.34 -0.37 2.23 2.28 0.93 0.93 96 -0.31 2.72 0.91 120 -0.26 3.26 0.88 144 -0.22 3.89 0.85 168 -0.18 4.39 0.83 192 -0.19 4.82 0.80 216 -0.18 5.12 0.78 240 -0.08 5.54 0.75 264 -0.11 5.86 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 382 12 UTC = 383 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.23 1.06 1.06 0.95 0.95 48 -0.30 -0.32 1.35 1.36 0.95 0.95 72 -0.38 -0.41 1.69 1.71 0.94 0.94 96 -0.43 2.15 0.92 120 -0.41 2.67 0.88 144 -0.41 3.20 0.84 168 -0.38 3.63 0.81 192 -0.47 4.02 0.78 216 -0.37 4.41 0.74 240 -0.36 4.84 0.70 264 -0.44 5.12 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 412 12 UTC = 412 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.51 0.45 1.43 1.42 0.92 0.92 48 0.53 0.48 1.73 1.73 0.91 0.91 72 0.50 0.45 2.07 2.10 0.89 0.88 96 0.45 2.48 0.86 120 0.49 2.84 0.82 144 0.53 3.25 0.77 168 0.50 3.58 0.74 192 0.48 3.80 0.72 216 0.45 4.13 0.67 240 0.46 4.47 0.62 264 0.45 4.63 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 407 12 UTC = 409 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.79 4.03 3.99 48 -0.95 -0.88 4.63 4.56 72 -0.99 -0.94 5.37 5.37 96 -1.00 6.29 120 -0.93 7.28 144 -0.83 8.33 168 -0.72 9.24 192 -0.75 9.74 216 -0.75 10.31 240 -0.68 11.01 264 -0.62 11.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 366 12 UTC = 369 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.41 4.64 4.67 48 -0.54 -0.47 5.86 5.88 72 -0.61 -0.52 7.22 7.36 96 -0.62 9.02 120 -0.60 10.63 144 -0.55 12.61 168 -0.48 13.88 192 -0.60 14.97 216 -0.74 15.81 240 -0.81 16.91 264 -0.76 17.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.45 5.13 5.11 48 -0.69 -0.55 6.69 6.71 72 -0.77 -0.67 8.64 8.62 96 -0.75 10.95 120 -0.62 13.46 144 -0.57 16.13 168 -0.50 18.16 192 -0.65 19.93 216 -0.89 21.21 240 -1.00 23.10 264 -0.92 24.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 396 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.29 -1.06 8.27 8.70 0.98 0.96 48 -1.15 -0.91 11.01 11.12 0.97 0.97 72 -1.46 -0.96 14.08 15.01 0.95 0.95 96 -0.83 20.64 0.94 120 -1.73 26.80 0.89 144 -3.20 33.81 0.82 168 -1.76 38.39 0.78 192 -2.04 44.52 0.71 216 -1.61 48.57 0.65 240 -2.19 51.47 0.63 264 -0.91 55.09 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.38 -6.38 11.24 12.61 0.97 0.97 48 -4.74 -5.44 14.13 16.10 0.98 0.97 72 -4.63 -5.23 18.37 21.78 0.96 0.96 96 -4.97 28.83 0.94 120 -6.05 39.45 0.88 144 -7.72 48.21 0.84 168 -6.59 58.23 0.78 192 -5.47 66.98 0.73 216 -4.27 73.10 0.63 240 -4.76 76.97 0.59 264 -3.69 82.73 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.42 -9.40 15.94 18.84 0.98 0.98 48 -8.18 -8.64 20.31 23.59 0.98 0.98 72 -8.64 -8.61 27.32 31.39 0.96 0.97 96 -8.81 41.30 0.95 120 -10.39 55.91 0.89 144 -12.51 69.02 0.85 168 -11.62 85.03 0.78 192 -9.80 94.19 0.73 216 -7.12 104.15 0.64 240 -5.49 111.01 0.60 264 -2.97 120.32 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.55 1.61 1.57 0.84 0.86 48 -0.45 -0.47 1.77 1.67 0.88 0.90 72 -0.40 -0.40 1.95 1.82 0.88 0.89 96 -0.33 2.11 0.85 120 -0.30 2.45 0.79 144 -0.28 2.87 0.72 168 -0.34 3.23 0.72 192 -0.30 3.44 0.69 216 -0.32 3.83 0.62 240 -0.32 3.90 0.59 264 -0.41 4.15 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.09 0.89 0.99 0.91 0.91 48 -0.06 -0.10 1.07 1.17 0.92 0.92 72 -0.07 -0.12 1.34 1.42 0.90 0.91 96 -0.12 1.70 0.88 120 -0.17 2.10 0.82 144 -0.27 2.47 0.77 168 -0.29 2.83 0.70 192 -0.20 2.99 0.64 216 -0.18 3.21 0.60 240 -0.17 3.42 0.54 264 -0.15 3.59 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.09 1.19 1.24 0.89 0.91 48 -0.01 0.05 1.39 1.53 0.90 0.90 72 -0.10 0.06 1.67 1.83 0.88 0.87 96 0.02 2.18 0.83 120 -0.04 2.51 0.79 144 -0.07 2.87 0.75 168 -0.02 3.19 0.70 192 -0.09 3.45 0.65 216 -0.01 3.61 0.62 240 0.08 3.75 0.60 264 0.10 3.87 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.68 4.38 4.15 48 -0.78 -0.72 4.79 4.53 72 -0.80 -0.80 5.32 5.01 96 -0.87 5.61 120 -1.00 6.41 144 -1.06 7.13 168 -1.06 7.68 192 -1.13 8.00 216 -1.19 8.50 240 -1.17 9.02 264 -1.27 9.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.54 3.95 4.15 48 -0.44 -0.52 4.64 4.86 72 -0.46 -0.66 5.68 5.94 96 -0.85 7.15 120 -0.93 8.35 144 -0.98 9.88 168 -1.07 10.69 192 -0.94 11.32 216 -0.84 12.00 240 -0.77 12.86 264 -0.78 13.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 47 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -1.08 5.21 5.60 48 -0.91 -1.24 6.69 6.78 72 -0.99 -1.55 8.34 8.35 96 -1.64 10.46 120 -1.69 12.35 144 -1.45 15.25 168 -1.24 16.73 192 -0.95 18.05 216 -0.75 18.83 240 -0.45 20.31 264 -0.50 21.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 47 ---------------------------------------------------------