VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MARCH 2014 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L60/L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.07 0.99 1.01 0.99 0.99 16.8 17.4 48 0.06 0.08 1.66 1.69 0.98 0.98 25.6 26.4 72 0.04 0.06 2.47 2.54 0.96 0.96 33.7 34.9 96 0.02 3.51 0.92 43.5 120 0.03 4.62 0.87 51.7 144 -0.01 5.83 0.79 59.4 168 -0.04 6.82 0.71 65.3 192 -0.12 8.11 0.60 72.0 216 -0.16 9.03 0.51 76.4 240 -0.18 9.62 0.45 79.5 264 -0.26 9.99 0.41 81.4 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.69 6.97 7.07 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.6 48 -0.68 -0.88 13.78 14.00 0.99 0.99 17.2 17.3 72 -0.93 -1.19 22.64 23.46 0.97 0.97 24.9 25.4 96 -1.76 33.91 0.94 32.8 120 -2.12 46.37 0.89 40.1 144 -2.68 59.40 0.82 46.8 168 -3.25 70.86 0.74 52.1 192 -3.97 83.75 0.64 57.4 216 -3.96 93.52 0.55 61.3 240 -4.09 101.77 0.48 64.3 264 -4.42 108.47 0.42 66.0 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.60 9.30 9.41 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.7 48 -0.97 -1.13 17.97 18.33 0.99 0.99 13.1 13.2 72 -1.38 -1.64 29.13 29.85 0.98 0.98 19.0 19.1 96 -2.34 43.57 0.95 25.2 120 -2.80 59.41 0.91 31.5 144 -3.35 76.27 0.84 37.4 168 -3.60 91.77 0.77 42.4 192 -3.65 108.36 0.69 47.7 216 -2.63 122.55 0.60 51.9 240 -2.20 134.76 0.51 55.0 264 -2.82 145.13 0.44 57.1 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.01 0.49 0.50 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.04 0.89 0.90 0.97 0.97 72 -0.06 -0.06 1.33 1.35 0.94 0.94 96 -0.09 1.84 0.89 120 -0.13 2.32 0.83 144 -0.15 2.82 0.75 168 -0.18 3.23 0.68 192 -0.17 3.66 0.59 216 -0.14 4.03 0.50 240 -0.13 4.32 0.43 264 -0.14 4.59 0.36 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.03 0.68 0.67 0.99 0.99 48 0.02 0.03 1.10 1.10 0.97 0.96 72 0.04 0.05 1.55 1.56 0.93 0.93 96 0.08 1.98 0.88 120 0.10 2.43 0.82 144 0.12 2.86 0.75 168 0.17 3.22 0.68 192 0.23 3.55 0.61 216 0.28 3.86 0.55 240 0.29 4.11 0.49 264 0.27 4.26 0.46 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 0.00 2.30 2.31 48 -0.05 0.00 4.08 4.11 72 -0.07 -0.02 5.84 5.98 96 -0.04 7.76 120 -0.02 9.52 144 -0.01 11.28 168 0.05 12.78 192 0.09 14.25 216 0.08 15.41 240 0.09 16.31 264 0.09 16.81 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.09 3.34 3.34 48 -0.19 -0.18 5.40 5.42 72 -0.26 -0.24 7.59 7.59 96 -0.26 9.88 120 -0.32 12.32 144 -0.31 14.79 168 -0.27 17.05 192 -0.23 19.20 216 -0.26 21.19 240 -0.30 22.69 264 -0.34 23.77 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.34 3.12 3.16 0.98 0.98 27.7 27.2 48 -0.37 -0.34 4.61 4.54 0.95 0.95 36.3 35.6 72 -0.20 -0.15 5.59 5.49 0.92 0.93 41.3 40.5 96 0.15 6.37 0.90 44.4 120 0.26 7.43 0.87 47.9 144 0.44 8.27 0.83 51.5 168 0.63 9.17 0.80 54.4 192 1.02 10.34 0.75 57.1 216 1.08 11.55 0.69 59.4 240 0.88 12.44 0.64 61.7 264 1.19 12.78 0.61 63.0 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.26 1.01 4.89 4.80 0.98 0.98 19.7 19.8 48 0.96 0.61 7.43 7.47 0.96 0.96 27.6 27.7 72 0.99 0.48 9.92 9.87 0.94 0.94 33.2 33.3 96 0.56 12.25 0.90 38.0 120 0.42 14.40 0.86 41.8 144 0.34 16.19 0.81 45.3 168 -0.14 17.94 0.76 48.0 192 -0.63 20.12 0.70 50.9 216 -1.48 22.55 0.63 54.1 240 -2.51 24.88 0.56 57.7 264 -2.89 26.20 0.50 59.8 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.41 0.43 0.96 0.96 48 0.08 0.06 0.68 0.69 0.89 0.91 72 0.12 0.10 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.86 96 0.12 0.96 0.82 120 0.13 1.06 0.78 144 0.14 1.17 0.73 168 0.13 1.26 0.68 192 0.11 1.33 0.64 216 0.09 1.43 0.59 240 0.07 1.53 0.53 264 0.05 1.59 0.51 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 0.37 0.37 0.94 0.94 48 -0.02 -0.05 0.55 0.54 0.87 0.87 72 -0.02 -0.05 0.68 0.67 0.79 0.81 96 -0.06 0.77 0.74 120 -0.07 0.85 0.68 144 -0.07 0.92 0.63 168 -0.07 0.98 0.58 192 -0.09 1.03 0.53 216 -0.11 1.10 0.47 240 -0.14 1.17 0.42 264 -0.16 1.23 0.37 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.09 1.50 1.46 48 -0.17 -0.16 2.20 2.16 72 -0.21 -0.20 2.68 2.64 96 -0.21 3.03 120 -0.24 3.41 144 -0.29 3.78 168 -0.30 4.10 192 -0.28 4.40 216 -0.25 4.65 240 -0.20 4.93 264 -0.22 5.07 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.37 3.20 3.17 48 -0.66 -0.65 4.75 4.72 72 -0.85 -0.85 5.84 5.83 96 -0.95 6.78 120 -1.03 7.56 144 -1.05 8.24 168 -1.06 8.84 192 -1.02 9.48 216 -0.97 10.27 240 -0.89 10.99 264 -0.81 11.45 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.95 0.94 0.99 0.99 13.4 13.2 48 -0.06 -0.06 1.84 1.79 0.97 0.97 23.5 22.8 72 -0.09 -0.08 2.80 2.77 0.94 0.94 32.1 31.4 96 -0.10 3.90 0.88 39.6 120 -0.14 5.17 0.79 47.1 144 -0.15 6.46 0.67 54.2 168 -0.18 7.53 0.55 59.9 192 -0.20 8.49 0.45 63.9 216 -0.20 9.22 0.36 67.1 240 -0.18 9.79 0.27 69.6 264 -0.21 10.03 0.23 70.9 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.03 0.96 8.11 8.02 1.00 1.00 10.3 10.2 48 1.64 1.50 16.67 16.45 0.99 0.99 18.7 18.4 72 2.14 1.94 27.04 26.84 0.96 0.96 26.7 26.4 96 2.40 39.73 0.92 34.2 120 2.56 54.30 0.84 41.7 144 2.80 70.01 0.73 49.0 168 3.06 83.95 0.61 55.1 192 3.31 95.24 0.51 59.3 216 3.26 103.99 0.42 62.7 240 3.01 110.95 0.34 65.2 264 2.97 114.77 0.29 66.5 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.88 0.81 10.81 10.60 1.00 1.00 8.9 8.9 48 1.12 1.01 22.43 22.05 0.99 0.99 16.1 15.9 72 1.29 1.33 36.28 35.95 0.96 0.96 23.2 23.1 96 1.67 53.33 0.92 30.7 120 1.77 72.98 0.85 38.0 144 1.83 94.56 0.75 45.4 168 1.22 114.11 0.63 51.2 192 0.72 129.71 0.52 55.3 216 0.22 141.65 0.43 58.6 240 -0.62 151.95 0.35 61.1 264 -1.06 156.71 0.31 62.5 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.52 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 0.03 0.04 0.99 0.96 0.96 0.97 72 0.04 0.05 1.48 1.45 0.92 0.92 96 0.06 1.98 0.85 120 0.07 2.53 0.76 144 0.06 3.08 0.64 168 0.05 3.57 0.51 192 0.03 3.89 0.41 216 0.02 4.13 0.33 240 -0.03 4.41 0.25 264 -0.03 4.50 0.21 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 0.64 0.64 0.98 0.98 48 -0.09 -0.09 1.17 1.15 0.94 0.94 72 -0.12 -0.12 1.68 1.66 0.88 0.88 96 -0.13 2.17 0.79 120 -0.16 2.67 0.68 144 -0.21 3.16 0.54 168 -0.25 3.51 0.42 192 -0.30 3.77 0.34 216 -0.31 3.98 0.26 240 -0.33 4.12 0.21 264 -0.37 4.19 0.19 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.10 2.30 2.30 48 -0.17 -0.19 4.25 4.20 72 -0.26 -0.29 6.10 6.08 96 -0.35 7.96 120 -0.40 9.91 144 -0.41 11.84 168 -0.51 13.43 192 -0.61 14.66 216 -0.61 15.64 240 -0.65 16.25 264 -0.70 16.53 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.20 3.38 3.36 48 -0.37 -0.37 6.08 6.07 72 -0.51 -0.52 8.81 8.81 96 -0.59 11.77 120 -0.67 14.74 144 -0.77 17.77 168 -0.89 20.05 192 -1.00 22.03 216 -1.02 23.49 240 -1.01 24.59 264 -1.03 24.97 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.14 -2.33 8.63 8.99 0.99 0.99 48 -3.33 -3.34 11.98 12.80 0.98 0.98 72 -2.14 -2.42 16.87 17.94 0.97 0.96 96 -1.58 25.26 0.93 120 -1.57 31.37 0.89 144 -4.09 37.95 0.86 168 -5.47 43.32 0.82 192 -6.75 54.65 0.75 216 -4.77 60.82 0.72 240 -4.32 63.97 0.65 264 -9.32 65.45 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.10 -6.31 11.45 12.13 0.99 0.99 48 -6.13 -7.97 16.71 17.55 0.99 0.99 72 -5.49 -7.38 24.39 24.94 0.97 0.97 96 -6.50 35.22 0.94 120 -6.45 45.94 0.91 144 -10.46 58.47 0.85 168 -13.18 66.88 0.81 192 -14.86 78.43 0.74 216 -11.51 89.85 0.69 240 -6.39 96.63 0.65 264 -8.50 99.70 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.10 -3.76 21.44 19.41 0.99 0.99 48 -2.50 -7.35 26.22 25.11 0.99 0.99 72 -2.69 -7.66 34.63 34.16 0.97 0.98 96 -6.82 47.57 0.94 120 -5.24 62.79 0.91 144 -8.06 78.43 0.86 168 -10.43 91.56 0.81 192 -10.38 100.79 0.76 216 -6.04 117.48 0.70 240 2.40 133.88 0.63 264 2.81 138.10 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.66 1.86 2.01 0.95 0.95 48 -0.36 -0.54 2.02 2.21 0.96 0.96 72 -0.21 -0.41 2.36 2.48 0.93 0.94 96 -0.24 2.99 0.90 120 -0.20 3.63 0.88 144 -0.19 4.33 0.81 168 -0.43 5.08 0.74 192 -0.53 5.94 0.66 216 -0.43 6.72 0.61 240 0.04 6.89 0.61 264 0.43 6.84 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.13 0.91 0.94 0.96 0.96 48 -0.22 -0.24 1.18 1.20 0.96 0.96 72 -0.31 -0.31 1.57 1.60 0.94 0.94 96 -0.37 2.11 0.90 120 -0.38 2.61 0.87 144 -0.49 3.12 0.82 168 -0.48 3.58 0.76 192 -0.50 4.03 0.70 216 -0.43 4.46 0.66 240 -0.22 4.79 0.61 264 -0.04 4.91 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 0.41 1.35 1.36 0.94 0.94 48 0.33 0.39 1.68 1.65 0.93 0.93 72 0.34 0.36 2.00 1.97 0.91 0.92 96 0.45 2.41 0.87 120 0.69 2.86 0.85 144 0.89 3.29 0.78 168 1.03 3.80 0.73 192 1.24 4.35 0.70 216 1.33 4.73 0.65 240 1.27 4.91 0.62 264 1.31 4.93 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.84 3.99 4.14 48 -0.69 -0.95 4.51 4.76 72 -0.86 -1.02 5.29 5.63 96 -1.10 6.92 120 -1.22 7.96 144 -1.17 8.91 168 -1.00 9.92 192 -0.74 10.97 216 -0.55 12.02 240 -0.39 12.20 264 -0.32 12.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.51 4.49 4.62 48 -0.59 -0.55 5.63 5.71 72 -0.73 -0.64 7.07 7.25 96 -0.69 9.04 120 -0.55 10.61 144 -0.45 12.11 168 -0.20 13.76 192 -0.48 14.99 216 -0.57 15.93 240 -1.02 17.08 264 -0.72 17.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.90 5.97 5.90 48 -0.85 -1.08 7.73 7.46 72 -0.80 -0.78 9.39 9.32 96 -0.81 11.89 120 -0.88 14.44 144 -0.72 16.41 168 -0.53 18.22 192 -0.78 19.70 216 -1.25 21.41 240 -1.55 23.88 264 -1.92 25.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.31 -6.16 10.61 9.99 0.98 0.98 48 -8.29 -9.00 14.04 13.72 0.98 0.98 72 -9.92 -11.57 19.63 20.91 0.95 0.95 96 -15.57 30.58 0.92 120 -13.97 38.26 0.89 144 -16.33 53.00 0.84 168 -17.33 67.43 0.79 192 -17.08 73.67 0.81 216 -16.26 77.47 0.79 240 -15.25 82.96 0.75 264 -18.18 89.58 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -12.20 -10.75 15.29 14.20 0.99 0.99 48 -13.37 -14.36 20.07 20.13 0.98 0.98 72 -15.14 -18.23 29.47 31.66 0.95 0.95 96 -24.24 46.55 0.94 120 -21.31 60.38 0.90 144 -24.26 84.46 0.84 168 -27.65 105.89 0.79 192 -27.21 111.82 0.81 216 -29.15 124.13 0.77 240 -24.27 132.85 0.72 264 -27.35 140.19 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -14.05 -13.82 18.32 18.89 0.99 0.99 48 -16.27 -18.75 25.03 26.96 0.99 0.99 72 -18.71 -23.32 37.77 40.34 0.96 0.97 96 -28.19 58.52 0.94 120 -22.14 76.16 0.91 144 -23.22 108.64 0.85 168 -26.68 137.69 0.80 192 -26.30 150.34 0.80 216 -28.60 166.18 0.77 240 -17.64 177.78 0.72 264 -19.21 186.11 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.40 1.34 1.22 0.90 0.89 48 -0.73 -0.51 1.50 1.39 0.91 0.91 72 -0.77 -0.61 1.78 1.63 0.87 0.89 96 -0.75 2.13 0.85 120 -0.81 2.58 0.82 144 -0.82 3.34 0.72 168 -0.94 3.70 0.70 192 -0.98 3.92 0.70 216 -1.18 4.46 0.63 240 -0.88 4.69 0.56 264 -0.73 4.79 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.20 0.82 0.80 0.95 0.95 48 -0.14 -0.25 1.09 1.08 0.95 0.95 72 -0.15 -0.29 1.49 1.50 0.92 0.92 96 -0.36 1.99 0.90 120 -0.12 2.52 0.86 144 -0.11 3.37 0.75 168 -0.25 4.03 0.72 192 -0.24 4.33 0.72 216 -0.35 4.74 0.69 240 -0.08 4.98 0.64 264 -0.10 5.08 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.35 1.21 1.18 0.91 0.91 48 0.26 0.36 1.46 1.45 0.90 0.91 72 0.26 0.35 1.81 1.88 0.86 0.86 96 0.50 2.34 0.82 120 0.36 2.88 0.74 144 0.44 3.28 0.67 168 0.55 3.72 0.62 192 0.64 3.90 0.56 216 0.57 3.98 0.54 240 0.51 4.18 0.50 264 0.61 4.13 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.40 3.97 3.96 48 -0.69 -0.41 4.43 4.47 72 -0.62 -0.26 5.44 5.37 96 -0.13 6.55 120 -0.09 7.74 144 0.12 9.36 168 0.01 10.30 192 0.21 10.93 216 0.20 11.52 240 0.32 12.15 264 0.13 12.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.47 4.16 4.28 48 -0.50 -0.49 5.34 5.33 72 -0.53 -0.18 7.10 7.31 96 0.07 9.51 120 0.28 11.86 144 0.54 14.90 168 0.40 16.53 192 0.24 17.36 216 0.32 18.91 240 0.39 20.33 264 0.34 20.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.49 5.16 4.99 48 -0.92 -0.61 6.77 6.41 72 -0.94 -0.59 9.22 9.04 96 -0.43 12.27 120 0.18 16.19 144 0.67 20.76 168 0.68 23.67 192 0.22 25.87 216 1.08 28.08 240 0.83 29.34 264 0.42 29.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.78 3.91 12.83 11.23 0.97 0.97 48 5.00 4.95 15.02 13.89 0.97 0.97 72 5.91 6.48 18.20 17.78 0.95 0.94 96 6.75 22.75 0.91 120 7.72 26.93 0.90 144 6.47 31.87 0.83 168 5.70 36.05 0.78 192 5.15 42.11 0.73 216 6.93 46.21 0.71 240 11.02 49.08 0.72 264 11.99 51.41 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 95 12 UTC = 97 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.47 11.46 12.01 0.97 0.97 48 -0.42 0.72 15.32 15.87 0.97 0.97 72 -1.08 0.62 21.01 21.24 0.95 0.96 96 -0.20 28.86 0.92 120 -0.34 35.53 0.90 144 -2.49 42.13 0.88 168 -4.57 50.22 0.83 192 -2.68 58.51 0.80 216 1.50 63.70 0.78 240 7.38 69.69 0.75 264 9.41 71.23 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 106 12 UTC = 107 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.70 -1.67 18.43 18.85 0.96 0.96 48 -4.74 -2.21 24.63 24.93 0.96 0.97 72 -8.01 -4.38 31.77 32.24 0.96 0.95 96 -5.48 41.68 0.93 120 -7.63 53.07 0.90 144 -10.99 64.03 0.88 168 -13.09 72.34 0.86 192 -11.17 83.40 0.84 216 -5.84 91.61 0.82 240 2.69 99.33 0.80 264 7.16 101.46 0.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 105 12 UTC = 106 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.84 2.10 2.09 0.89 0.89 48 -0.82 -0.95 2.32 2.34 0.91 0.91 72 -0.92 -1.02 2.53 2.55 0.90 0.91 96 -1.06 2.81 0.89 120 -1.09 3.06 0.88 144 -1.04 3.33 0.83 168 -1.07 3.60 0.79 192 -0.98 3.97 0.77 216 -0.70 4.39 0.75 240 -0.58 4.87 0.71 264 -0.57 4.92 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 125 12 UTC = 123 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.17 1.04 1.05 0.93 0.93 48 -0.33 -0.25 1.28 1.32 0.93 0.93 72 -0.44 -0.38 1.60 1.62 0.92 0.92 96 -0.44 1.98 0.89 120 -0.53 2.37 0.86 144 -0.58 2.72 0.83 168 -0.71 3.00 0.81 192 -0.60 3.34 0.79 216 -0.60 3.67 0.77 240 -0.50 3.89 0.76 264 -0.49 3.98 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.30 0.32 1.42 1.42 0.88 0.89 48 0.33 0.38 1.72 1.68 0.87 0.87 72 0.28 0.36 1.98 1.95 0.85 0.85 96 0.43 2.21 0.82 120 0.45 2.44 0.80 144 0.44 2.65 0.78 168 0.50 2.93 0.72 192 0.41 3.19 0.68 216 0.52 3.36 0.67 240 0.76 3.69 0.64 264 0.95 3.87 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.81 3.95 3.83 48 -0.89 -0.89 4.46 4.31 72 -1.01 -1.02 5.02 4.88 96 -1.09 5.46 120 -1.16 6.12 144 -1.07 6.73 168 -1.05 7.57 192 -1.12 8.24 216 -1.18 8.46 240 -1.15 8.75 264 -1.08 9.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 121 12 UTC = 122 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.38 4.40 4.37 48 -0.68 -0.47 5.42 5.42 72 -0.68 -0.43 6.50 6.50 96 -0.36 7.56 120 -0.37 8.63 144 -0.31 9.67 168 -0.47 10.65 192 -0.55 11.82 216 -0.44 12.45 240 -0.69 13.15 264 -0.53 13.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.69 5.88 5.90 48 -1.07 -0.97 7.47 7.47 72 -1.24 -1.15 8.87 8.87 96 -1.13 10.44 120 -1.13 11.89 144 -1.15 13.41 168 -1.31 14.95 192 -1.33 16.92 216 -1.34 18.14 240 -1.29 19.69 264 -0.97 20.17 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.27 -4.42 7.13 9.25 0.97 0.97 48 -3.96 -3.97 8.95 11.05 0.97 0.98 72 -4.09 -3.64 11.21 14.57 0.97 0.96 96 -4.12 17.94 0.96 120 -4.54 25.08 0.92 144 -5.20 33.35 0.79 168 -7.71 35.53 0.77 192 -7.68 44.18 0.71 216 -6.56 43.44 0.70 240 -4.27 46.21 0.64 264 -2.94 51.01 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.33 -10.86 12.49 15.05 0.97 0.97 48 -9.17 -10.56 15.13 16.87 0.97 0.98 72 -9.01 -10.23 17.92 20.64 0.97 0.97 96 -10.19 23.40 0.97 120 -10.59 31.36 0.94 144 -11.50 46.93 0.82 168 -13.50 50.55 0.80 192 -14.65 60.93 0.76 216 -14.71 65.14 0.70 240 -15.17 69.64 0.71 264 -11.79 72.44 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.44 -13.16 16.25 18.86 0.96 0.98 48 -11.22 -13.71 20.24 22.48 0.97 0.97 72 -11.98 -14.43 25.53 28.67 0.97 0.97 96 -15.64 35.66 0.95 120 -18.45 46.29 0.93 144 -20.18 65.52 0.84 168 -19.77 72.00 0.80 192 -21.45 83.28 0.79 216 -22.38 90.06 0.73 240 -23.41 99.49 0.74 264 -20.19 104.11 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.29 1.07 1.16 0.83 0.81 48 -0.13 -0.24 1.18 1.28 0.89 0.89 72 -0.08 -0.16 1.32 1.53 0.89 0.89 96 -0.04 1.78 0.84 120 -0.05 1.97 0.77 144 -0.24 2.23 0.70 168 -0.16 2.47 0.71 192 -0.27 2.76 0.69 216 -0.39 3.04 0.62 240 -0.51 3.31 0.59 264 -0.28 3.50 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.18 0.88 0.90 0.87 0.85 48 -0.12 -0.20 1.01 1.03 0.87 0.88 72 -0.13 -0.26 1.14 1.24 0.87 0.87 96 -0.30 1.43 0.83 120 -0.26 1.66 0.82 144 -0.20 2.11 0.75 168 -0.15 2.29 0.72 192 -0.21 2.39 0.72 216 -0.30 2.49 0.73 240 -0.40 2.67 0.72 264 -0.34 2.75 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.25 0.94 0.88 0.87 0.88 48 0.18 0.21 1.13 1.04 0.87 0.89 72 0.13 0.15 1.25 1.25 0.86 0.87 96 0.12 1.36 0.87 120 -0.03 1.73 0.83 144 -0.13 2.27 0.70 168 0.07 2.31 0.72 192 0.20 2.57 0.68 216 0.15 2.64 0.69 240 0.27 2.86 0.69 264 0.12 3.31 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.60 3.62 3.63 48 -0.58 -0.63 4.03 3.99 72 -0.64 -0.69 4.45 4.49 96 -0.72 5.32 120 -0.65 5.99 144 -0.64 6.72 168 -0.79 7.06 192 -0.76 7.73 216 -0.83 8.10 240 -0.94 8.50 264 -0.84 9.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 23 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.55 3.87 3.99 48 -0.93 -0.68 4.59 4.84 72 -0.98 -0.73 5.27 5.64 96 -0.61 6.51 120 -0.70 7.40 144 -0.51 8.30 168 -0.62 9.42 192 -0.56 10.32 216 -0.44 11.28 240 -0.73 11.46 264 -0.61 12.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 23 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.58 5.14 5.19 48 -0.65 -0.75 6.29 6.26 72 -0.87 -0.78 7.63 7.66 96 -0.69 8.99 120 -0.78 10.50 144 -0.89 12.52 168 -0.97 14.25 192 -0.43 16.00 216 -0.40 17.95 240 -0.12 18.60 264 -0.03 19.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 23 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.95 -1.59 9.01 9.09 0.71 0.71 48 -3.46 -1.96 9.56 9.49 0.80 0.80 72 -3.55 -1.94 10.16 10.05 0.81 0.80 96 -1.50 10.62 0.78 120 -1.31 11.43 0.75 144 -1.19 12.13 0.73 168 -0.92 12.42 0.69 192 -0.25 13.15 0.67 216 -0.57 13.97 0.63 240 -1.02 14.73 0.60 264 -1.01 15.02 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.75 -6.43 12.88 12.67 0.64 0.62 48 -7.99 -6.54 13.35 13.06 0.77 0.76 72 -8.08 -6.40 13.78 13.37 0.79 0.77 96 -6.06 13.87 0.76 120 -6.07 14.33 0.75 144 -5.93 14.74 0.72 168 -5.59 14.98 0.69 192 -5.28 15.82 0.65 216 -5.64 16.88 0.60 240 -6.18 18.11 0.54 264 -6.37 18.42 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.82 -9.56 16.20 16.51 0.65 0.68 48 -10.42 -10.11 16.92 17.40 0.79 0.79 72 -10.16 -10.07 17.28 17.91 0.83 0.81 96 -9.44 18.51 0.79 120 -9.19 19.52 0.79 144 -9.15 20.16 0.77 168 -9.42 20.85 0.74 192 -9.69 22.60 0.71 216 -10.49 24.77 0.67 240 -11.59 26.89 0.61 264 -12.30 28.03 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.23 0.93 1.01 0.46 0.50 48 -0.20 -0.22 0.98 1.05 0.60 0.61 72 -0.18 -0.18 1.02 1.09 0.66 0.64 96 -0.16 1.11 0.64 120 -0.14 1.15 0.61 144 -0.11 1.20 0.60 168 -0.07 1.26 0.56 192 -0.09 1.29 0.56 216 -0.08 1.34 0.52 240 -0.07 1.42 0.48 264 -0.08 1.44 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.13 0.80 0.81 0.57 0.58 48 -0.07 -0.15 0.84 0.85 0.65 0.68 72 -0.11 -0.18 0.89 0.90 0.68 0.70 96 -0.22 0.94 0.68 120 -0.24 0.99 0.66 144 -0.25 1.05 0.63 168 -0.29 1.11 0.62 192 -0.31 1.14 0.64 216 -0.32 1.18 0.62 240 -0.33 1.25 0.58 264 -0.34 1.33 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.00 0.69 0.66 0.60 0.60 48 0.07 0.00 0.74 0.76 0.65 0.65 72 0.14 0.05 0.80 0.82 0.66 0.67 96 0.09 0.87 0.68 120 0.09 0.90 0.68 144 0.09 0.93 0.67 168 0.08 0.98 0.66 192 0.05 1.03 0.63 216 0.04 1.08 0.59 240 0.00 1.11 0.57 264 -0.03 1.14 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.69 3.44 3.41 48 -0.76 -0.79 3.76 3.71 72 -0.76 -0.74 4.03 3.97 96 -0.69 4.19 120 -0.73 4.43 144 -0.80 4.69 168 -0.74 4.97 192 -0.74 5.22 216 -0.82 5.39 240 -0.76 5.65 264 -0.85 5.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.01 -0.91 3.85 3.79 48 -1.05 -1.00 4.15 4.10 72 -1.05 -0.96 4.47 4.43 96 -0.93 4.78 120 -1.01 5.15 144 -1.08 5.45 168 -1.24 5.78 192 -1.37 6.16 216 -1.39 6.45 240 -1.39 6.83 264 -1.39 7.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.07 -1.02 4.86 4.87 48 -1.38 -1.33 5.80 5.90 72 -1.64 -1.50 6.41 6.48 96 -1.64 7.17 120 -1.77 7.70 144 -1.87 8.23 168 -1.86 8.82 192 -1.75 9.22 216 -1.67 9.67 240 -1.55 10.08 264 -1.40 10.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.02 -1.06 10.85 10.43 0.98 0.98 48 -1.24 -1.47 13.93 13.79 0.98 0.98 72 -0.91 -1.29 18.89 19.66 0.97 0.97 96 -2.00 26.81 0.95 120 -1.55 33.97 0.93 144 -2.97 43.61 0.89 168 -4.07 51.99 0.85 192 -5.00 60.09 0.82 216 -4.56 66.36 0.78 240 -3.37 69.76 0.75 264 -5.04 73.26 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 338 12 UTC = 339 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.44 -4.58 13.03 13.02 0.99 0.99 48 -5.40 -5.73 17.70 18.10 0.99 0.99 72 -5.78 -6.29 25.40 26.72 0.98 0.97 96 -7.59 37.58 0.95 120 -7.29 49.18 0.93 144 -9.14 63.57 0.90 168 -11.03 77.00 0.86 192 -11.82 87.27 0.84 216 -10.59 96.96 0.81 240 -7.41 103.86 0.77 264 -8.01 108.07 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 356 12 UTC = 354 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.76 -5.43 19.91 19.86 0.98 0.98 48 -6.56 -7.53 25.44 26.03 0.98 0.98 72 -8.06 -8.84 34.74 35.82 0.98 0.97 96 -10.09 49.91 0.95 120 -9.30 65.39 0.93 144 -10.91 84.27 0.89 168 -12.54 101.42 0.86 192 -12.77 114.13 0.85 216 -10.66 128.17 0.81 240 -5.10 139.90 0.78 264 -3.90 145.73 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 354 12 UTC = 353 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.60 1.81 1.82 0.93 0.93 48 -0.63 -0.65 2.01 2.04 0.94 0.94 72 -0.65 -0.66 2.28 2.30 0.93 0.93 96 -0.67 2.70 0.91 120 -0.67 3.15 0.89 144 -0.64 3.67 0.85 168 -0.68 4.13 0.81 192 -0.72 4.67 0.77 216 -0.65 5.25 0.73 240 -0.48 5.52 0.70 264 -0.35 5.56 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 377 12 UTC = 372 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.17 0.96 0.97 0.95 0.95 48 -0.25 -0.24 1.22 1.24 0.96 0.95 72 -0.31 -0.30 1.58 1.60 0.94 0.94 96 -0.35 2.05 0.91 120 -0.35 2.53 0.88 144 -0.37 3.03 0.84 168 -0.42 3.45 0.80 192 -0.42 3.87 0.77 216 -0.41 4.23 0.74 240 -0.33 4.51 0.72 264 -0.27 4.63 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 406 12 UTC = 403 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.29 0.30 1.33 1.32 0.92 0.92 48 0.30 0.32 1.62 1.60 0.92 0.92 72 0.29 0.31 1.94 1.94 0.90 0.90 96 0.39 2.32 0.87 120 0.42 2.71 0.84 144 0.46 3.06 0.79 168 0.54 3.47 0.75 192 0.60 3.82 0.71 216 0.67 4.06 0.69 240 0.72 4.26 0.67 264 0.79 4.35 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 398 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.74 3.96 3.98 48 -0.79 -0.82 4.48 4.54 72 -0.85 -0.86 5.25 5.32 96 -0.87 6.30 120 -0.90 7.26 144 -0.83 8.35 168 -0.79 9.23 192 -0.74 9.97 216 -0.67 10.64 240 -0.61 10.90 264 -0.61 11.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 359 12 UTC = 359 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.51 4.36 4.42 48 -0.67 -0.55 5.46 5.52 72 -0.72 -0.54 6.83 7.01 96 -0.52 8.60 120 -0.46 10.25 144 -0.40 11.98 168 -0.50 13.53 192 -0.58 14.67 216 -0.56 15.73 240 -0.72 16.56 264 -0.55 16.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 391 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.67 5.51 5.49 48 -0.87 -0.82 7.07 7.00 72 -0.92 -0.84 8.88 8.87 96 -0.85 11.19 120 -0.82 13.71 144 -0.75 16.19 168 -0.82 18.47 192 -0.94 20.32 216 -0.90 21.98 240 -0.96 23.45 264 -0.95 24.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 389 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.53 -1.70 8.37 9.05 0.97 0.97 48 -1.52 -1.79 10.88 12.01 0.97 0.97 72 -1.27 -0.66 14.09 16.05 0.95 0.95 96 -0.37 21.66 0.92 120 -0.21 26.82 0.88 144 0.28 35.86 0.77 168 -0.72 44.78 0.68 192 -1.11 50.23 0.63 216 -1.93 49.85 0.64 240 -1.80 53.32 0.57 264 -1.55 54.43 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.22 -7.94 12.78 13.24 0.97 0.98 48 -6.87 -7.60 16.62 17.30 0.97 0.98 72 -5.59 -5.53 21.04 23.28 0.96 0.96 96 -4.40 30.92 0.93 120 -2.86 38.18 0.90 144 -1.67 52.60 0.81 168 -2.25 66.40 0.71 192 -1.91 76.17 0.64 216 -3.57 77.37 0.65 240 -5.71 79.97 0.63 264 -5.33 81.42 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.31 -9.66 17.31 18.54 0.97 0.98 48 -8.43 -10.06 22.71 24.71 0.97 0.97 72 -7.72 -8.29 30.25 33.47 0.96 0.96 96 -7.61 44.51 0.93 120 -5.63 55.64 0.90 144 -4.27 76.11 0.82 168 -4.81 92.37 0.74 192 -5.14 106.33 0.69 216 -6.84 110.33 0.69 240 -11.05 113.18 0.68 264 -10.40 117.48 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.40 1.48 1.53 0.85 0.88 48 -0.39 -0.33 1.58 1.67 0.89 0.91 72 -0.29 -0.24 1.71 1.91 0.88 0.88 96 -0.17 2.22 0.85 120 -0.03 2.54 0.79 144 0.02 3.03 0.71 168 -0.02 3.34 0.68 192 -0.11 3.67 0.63 216 -0.19 3.91 0.59 240 -0.21 4.03 0.61 264 -0.18 3.99 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.10 0.94 0.96 0.89 0.92 48 -0.03 -0.10 1.13 1.15 0.90 0.93 72 -0.02 -0.08 1.36 1.44 0.88 0.89 96 -0.11 1.76 0.87 120 -0.04 2.14 0.83 144 -0.03 2.61 0.76 168 -0.03 2.95 0.69 192 0.00 3.39 0.63 216 -0.04 3.36 0.64 240 -0.26 3.58 0.62 264 -0.19 3.52 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.15 1.16 1.22 0.91 0.90 48 0.12 0.13 1.45 1.50 0.90 0.89 72 0.11 0.10 1.69 1.86 0.88 0.87 96 0.11 2.19 0.84 120 -0.01 2.52 0.80 144 -0.08 3.01 0.72 168 -0.12 3.13 0.70 192 -0.21 3.43 0.63 216 -0.20 3.51 0.62 240 -0.18 3.69 0.61 264 -0.22 3.83 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.72 4.14 3.95 48 -0.66 -0.73 4.47 4.27 72 -0.74 -0.87 4.87 4.79 96 -0.97 5.53 120 -1.04 6.30 144 -1.05 7.00 168 -1.05 7.85 192 -0.94 8.73 216 -0.99 8.92 240 -1.11 8.89 264 -1.13 9.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 46 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.56 4.20 4.34 48 -0.72 -0.63 4.97 5.20 72 -0.78 -0.69 5.99 6.40 96 -0.68 7.61 120 -0.87 8.77 144 -0.61 10.03 168 -0.44 11.50 192 -0.55 12.75 216 -0.36 13.62 240 -0.68 13.54 264 -0.52 13.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 47 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.88 5.45 5.82 48 -0.82 -1.10 6.84 7.23 72 -0.99 -1.24 8.47 9.26 96 -1.08 11.19 120 -0.86 13.26 144 -1.13 15.81 168 -1.05 17.56 192 -0.89 19.86 216 -1.22 21.07 240 -1.04 21.33 264 -0.80 21.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 47 ---------------------------------------------------------