VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AUGUST 2014 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.03 0.76 0.78 0.99 0.99 20.1 20.0 48 0.09 0.09 1.33 1.33 0.97 0.97 30.7 30.9 72 0.19 0.20 1.92 1.92 0.94 0.94 39.5 39.7 96 0.30 2.59 0.89 47.9 120 0.39 3.28 0.82 55.2 144 0.47 3.96 0.74 62.0 168 0.54 4.60 0.64 67.8 192 0.64 5.09 0.56 71.2 216 0.69 5.62 0.47 74.8 240 0.70 5.99 0.39 77.4 264 0.71 6.26 0.34 79.2 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.10 5.51 5.72 1.00 1.00 12.9 12.8 48 0.51 0.53 10.70 10.82 0.99 0.99 22.1 22.1 72 1.17 1.23 17.24 16.85 0.96 0.97 31.1 30.7 96 1.87 24.30 0.93 39.2 120 2.21 32.31 0.87 47.1 144 2.57 40.92 0.79 54.1 168 2.81 49.58 0.70 60.3 192 3.13 57.21 0.60 65.4 216 3.15 63.99 0.49 69.8 240 2.73 69.38 0.41 73.0 264 2.44 73.12 0.34 75.4 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.04 8.72 8.94 1.00 1.00 12.2 12.2 48 -1.06 -0.87 17.00 17.35 0.99 0.99 21.1 21.2 72 -1.95 -1.70 27.31 27.05 0.96 0.96 30.0 29.9 96 -2.69 38.61 0.92 38.3 120 -3.91 50.46 0.87 45.6 144 -4.88 63.77 0.79 52.5 168 -5.81 77.08 0.70 58.6 192 -6.48 88.40 0.60 63.5 216 -7.35 98.06 0.51 67.1 240 -8.30 106.31 0.42 70.6 264 -9.05 111.02 0.38 72.4 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.04 0.42 0.42 0.99 0.99 48 0.02 0.03 0.73 0.73 0.96 0.96 72 -0.01 0.00 1.06 1.05 0.92 0.92 96 -0.05 1.37 0.86 120 -0.11 1.69 0.79 144 -0.16 2.00 0.71 168 -0.20 2.30 0.62 192 -0.23 2.54 0.53 216 -0.27 2.74 0.46 240 -0.30 2.93 0.38 264 -0.33 3.04 0.33 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.06 0.62 0.61 0.98 0.98 48 -0.13 -0.13 1.05 1.05 0.94 0.94 72 -0.20 -0.20 1.48 1.46 0.87 0.88 96 -0.25 1.85 0.80 120 -0.30 2.21 0.71 144 -0.33 2.52 0.62 168 -0.38 2.77 0.55 192 -0.41 3.00 0.47 216 -0.41 3.18 0.40 240 -0.39 3.36 0.33 264 -0.38 3.49 0.28 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.11 1.87 1.89 48 -0.21 -0.22 3.19 3.21 72 -0.26 -0.26 4.50 4.47 96 -0.27 5.72 120 -0.28 6.96 144 -0.30 8.07 168 -0.29 9.15 192 -0.28 10.00 216 -0.25 10.74 240 -0.25 11.32 264 -0.25 11.74 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.20 3.32 3.36 48 -0.35 -0.35 5.56 5.60 72 -0.50 -0.50 7.82 7.84 96 -0.59 10.02 120 -0.63 12.00 144 -0.71 13.96 168 -0.77 15.75 192 -0.81 17.14 216 -0.81 18.25 240 -0.78 19.33 264 -0.78 19.83 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.32 3.04 2.94 0.97 0.98 24.7 24.2 48 -0.55 -0.53 4.42 4.31 0.94 0.95 32.9 32.3 72 -0.81 -0.67 5.52 5.47 0.91 0.92 38.1 37.5 96 -0.73 6.45 0.89 41.4 120 -0.86 7.38 0.86 44.8 144 -1.20 8.35 0.82 47.9 168 -1.86 9.65 0.76 50.6 192 -2.41 10.69 0.72 52.9 216 -2.90 11.22 0.70 54.2 240 -3.57 11.76 0.67 55.4 264 -4.08 12.85 0.61 56.8 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.97 0.76 5.00 4.74 0.97 0.97 23.4 23.2 48 -0.30 -0.44 6.96 7.01 0.93 0.93 31.6 31.2 72 -1.55 -1.46 8.66 8.79 0.89 0.88 36.8 36.4 96 -2.33 10.33 0.84 40.4 120 -3.11 12.07 0.78 43.5 144 -3.43 13.95 0.71 46.2 168 -3.63 15.54 0.63 48.8 192 -4.05 16.69 0.58 51.1 216 -4.14 17.92 0.51 53.7 240 -3.87 19.30 0.44 55.5 264 -3.49 20.30 0.37 57.2 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.05 0.42 0.43 0.96 0.96 48 -0.02 -0.02 0.67 0.67 0.89 0.90 72 0.03 0.02 0.85 0.86 0.82 0.85 96 0.05 0.99 0.80 120 0.09 1.11 0.75 144 0.11 1.23 0.70 168 0.14 1.33 0.64 192 0.17 1.43 0.59 216 0.19 1.52 0.55 240 0.20 1.62 0.48 264 0.20 1.68 0.43 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.38 0.36 0.91 0.90 48 -0.04 -0.05 0.52 0.50 0.82 0.81 72 -0.08 -0.09 0.62 0.60 0.73 0.72 96 -0.12 0.68 0.65 120 -0.13 0.73 0.59 144 -0.12 0.77 0.54 168 -0.11 0.83 0.46 192 -0.11 0.88 0.39 216 -0.09 0.91 0.34 240 -0.06 0.93 0.30 264 -0.04 0.98 0.23 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.08 1.44 1.42 48 -0.24 -0.23 2.17 2.12 72 -0.32 -0.34 2.66 2.64 96 -0.39 3.06 120 -0.41 3.42 144 -0.43 3.75 168 -0.39 4.08 192 -0.33 4.36 216 -0.29 4.55 240 -0.24 4.70 264 -0.19 4.88 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.29 3.14 3.11 48 -0.37 -0.47 4.68 4.66 72 -0.47 -0.55 5.69 5.70 96 -0.55 6.50 120 -0.53 7.08 144 -0.48 7.53 168 -0.42 8.07 192 -0.40 8.62 216 -0.31 9.13 240 -0.31 9.57 264 -0.38 9.98 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 1.09 1.10 1.00 1.00 12.6 12.5 48 -0.03 -0.04 2.16 2.18 0.98 0.98 22.7 22.5 72 -0.08 -0.10 3.40 3.43 0.95 0.95 31.9 31.8 96 -0.18 4.85 0.91 39.9 120 -0.26 6.40 0.84 46.7 144 -0.28 7.99 0.76 53.3 168 -0.28 9.38 0.68 58.8 192 -0.31 10.10 0.62 61.6 216 -0.30 10.80 0.57 64.1 240 -0.24 11.39 0.51 66.4 264 -0.19 12.04 0.43 69.1 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.30 9.32 9.28 1.00 1.00 10.1 10.1 48 -0.68 -0.76 19.50 19.65 0.99 0.99 18.7 18.8 72 -1.00 -1.12 31.49 31.66 0.96 0.96 26.7 26.9 96 -1.54 45.98 0.92 34.2 120 -2.00 61.69 0.86 40.8 144 -2.27 79.00 0.78 47.5 168 -2.32 95.16 0.68 53.5 192 -2.42 103.98 0.61 56.8 216 -2.69 112.40 0.55 59.8 240 -2.47 119.33 0.49 62.1 264 -2.83 125.50 0.42 64.4 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.43 0.29 11.61 11.56 1.00 1.00 8.0 8.0 48 0.35 0.10 23.81 23.87 0.99 0.99 14.3 14.4 72 0.20 0.07 38.07 38.36 0.97 0.97 20.5 20.6 96 -0.06 55.87 0.93 26.9 120 -0.26 76.42 0.88 33.1 144 -0.37 99.17 0.79 39.3 168 -0.13 121.17 0.70 45.2 192 0.29 134.12 0.63 48.7 216 0.02 145.72 0.56 51.6 240 0.33 156.13 0.49 54.1 264 -0.86 163.83 0.43 56.4 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.54 0.55 0.99 0.99 48 0.01 0.01 1.04 1.04 0.96 0.96 72 0.01 0.01 1.51 1.51 0.92 0.92 96 0.01 2.00 0.87 120 0.01 2.51 0.79 144 -0.01 3.04 0.69 168 -0.02 3.55 0.58 192 -0.02 3.90 0.50 216 -0.04 4.13 0.43 240 -0.09 4.38 0.36 264 -0.14 4.60 0.28 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.04 0.64 0.64 0.98 0.98 48 0.07 0.06 1.10 1.11 0.95 0.95 72 0.09 0.07 1.54 1.55 0.90 0.90 96 0.08 1.96 0.83 120 0.11 2.34 0.75 144 0.14 2.74 0.66 168 0.17 3.13 0.55 192 0.22 3.40 0.48 216 0.25 3.68 0.39 240 0.27 3.86 0.34 264 0.26 4.04 0.28 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 2.55 2.56 48 0.02 0.02 4.86 4.85 72 0.06 0.06 6.97 6.97 96 0.06 8.99 120 0.07 10.81 144 0.06 12.81 168 0.08 14.71 192 0.02 15.82 216 -0.09 16.82 240 -0.12 17.63 264 -0.09 18.40 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.07 3.28 3.33 48 -0.11 -0.14 5.91 5.91 72 -0.13 -0.15 8.37 8.44 96 -0.20 11.09 120 -0.27 13.70 144 -0.33 16.45 168 -0.34 19.27 192 -0.44 21.16 216 -0.53 22.76 240 -0.57 24.17 264 -0.56 25.42 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.53 -3.29 7.33 7.33 0.96 0.96 48 -3.45 -2.45 9.17 8.80 0.96 0.96 72 -1.97 -1.92 11.48 11.54 0.95 0.96 96 -1.90 16.23 0.92 120 -0.79 21.22 0.88 144 -0.02 25.29 0.82 168 -1.94 29.90 0.75 192 -4.03 34.66 0.67 216 -3.12 37.09 0.61 240 -0.93 39.01 0.59 264 -1.89 41.59 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.00 -6.70 10.40 10.20 0.97 0.97 48 -5.50 -5.24 11.99 11.64 0.97 0.97 72 -3.32 -4.17 15.29 15.20 0.96 0.97 96 -3.93 22.03 0.94 120 -3.29 28.73 0.91 144 -2.76 35.53 0.84 168 -5.66 44.32 0.75 192 -8.57 52.15 0.68 216 -6.63 56.88 0.62 240 -3.16 58.73 0.61 264 -4.21 62.24 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.23 -8.43 14.51 14.33 0.98 0.98 48 -8.96 -9.36 20.37 20.03 0.97 0.98 72 -8.79 -10.72 27.45 27.49 0.96 0.97 96 -12.52 38.69 0.94 120 -13.62 51.16 0.90 144 -14.56 63.27 0.85 168 -19.74 78.10 0.74 192 -23.18 91.12 0.66 216 -18.29 99.05 0.62 240 -12.29 103.72 0.62 264 -15.11 109.40 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.53 1.19 1.52 0.85 0.84 48 -0.09 -0.41 1.44 1.67 0.88 0.88 72 0.05 -0.30 1.71 1.88 0.88 0.88 96 -0.21 2.16 0.86 120 -0.20 2.51 0.83 144 -0.20 2.87 0.76 168 -0.27 3.12 0.68 192 -0.32 3.36 0.62 216 -0.27 3.61 0.62 240 -0.25 3.86 0.58 264 -0.21 4.06 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.05 0.77 0.77 0.87 0.87 48 0.04 0.03 0.91 0.92 0.90 0.90 72 0.00 -0.02 1.12 1.14 0.88 0.89 96 -0.09 1.39 0.86 120 -0.18 1.67 0.81 144 -0.26 1.95 0.75 168 -0.38 2.23 0.65 192 -0.41 2.46 0.60 216 -0.30 2.67 0.57 240 -0.20 2.78 0.58 264 -0.29 2.93 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.12 0.79 0.80 0.88 0.87 48 -0.04 0.01 0.99 0.99 0.90 0.89 72 -0.11 -0.08 1.24 1.24 0.88 0.88 96 -0.16 1.49 0.84 120 -0.16 1.78 0.78 144 -0.14 2.03 0.72 168 -0.23 2.22 0.67 192 -0.23 2.30 0.63 216 -0.03 2.41 0.63 240 0.13 2.54 0.61 264 0.18 2.69 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -1.11 3.35 3.57 48 -0.89 -1.22 3.75 3.99 72 -0.89 -1.22 4.20 4.54 96 -1.22 5.20 120 -1.32 6.00 144 -1.27 6.71 168 -1.23 7.23 192 -1.11 7.74 216 -0.88 8.10 240 -0.67 8.52 264 -0.61 8.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.57 3.52 3.48 48 -0.74 -0.62 4.16 4.22 72 -0.74 -0.66 4.93 5.05 96 -0.66 6.05 120 -0.76 7.11 144 -0.72 8.29 168 -0.60 9.36 192 -0.43 10.15 216 -0.04 10.82 240 0.19 11.10 264 0.25 11.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.72 5.61 5.54 48 -0.92 -0.89 7.18 7.22 72 -0.89 -0.77 8.91 8.99 96 -0.78 10.92 120 -0.73 13.21 144 -0.61 15.39 168 -0.27 17.71 192 -0.02 19.03 216 0.29 20.04 240 0.42 20.74 264 0.54 21.08 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.58 -3.74 8.44 8.23 0.97 0.97 48 -3.97 -6.21 10.22 11.66 0.97 0.97 72 -2.70 -5.40 13.27 14.63 0.95 0.94 96 -2.95 17.15 0.93 120 -1.13 20.77 0.89 144 1.27 25.14 0.82 168 3.61 30.60 0.80 192 7.73 37.44 0.71 216 9.22 46.61 0.68 240 10.66 52.55 0.64 264 15.08 56.61 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.63 -5.50 11.39 9.89 0.97 0.97 48 -7.45 -8.59 13.88 14.50 0.97 0.97 72 -5.70 -7.02 18.29 18.70 0.95 0.96 96 -3.60 22.23 0.95 120 0.60 27.28 0.92 144 4.95 35.79 0.86 168 12.00 45.54 0.77 192 23.12 61.42 0.68 216 27.22 77.50 0.59 240 29.85 87.65 0.54 264 33.98 93.11 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.36 -4.83 15.05 13.91 0.97 0.97 48 -9.55 -10.35 21.11 22.33 0.98 0.97 72 -10.07 -11.03 31.13 31.22 0.95 0.95 96 -8.45 39.39 0.93 120 -1.75 46.92 0.91 144 6.18 61.45 0.86 168 16.93 77.22 0.76 192 36.57 101.24 0.67 216 40.85 126.72 0.58 240 44.70 140.32 0.53 264 46.39 146.45 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 0.08 1.02 0.98 0.86 0.83 48 -0.27 0.06 1.13 1.09 0.89 0.88 72 -0.19 0.15 1.26 1.29 0.89 0.88 96 0.26 1.53 0.85 120 0.43 1.70 0.85 144 0.56 2.02 0.80 168 0.88 2.51 0.69 192 1.35 3.10 0.63 216 1.67 3.71 0.55 240 1.83 4.11 0.47 264 1.74 4.20 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.08 0.74 0.75 0.91 0.90 48 0.00 0.04 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.91 72 -0.04 0.04 1.15 1.12 0.89 0.90 96 0.07 1.42 0.87 120 0.18 1.64 0.84 144 0.30 1.94 0.79 168 0.56 2.21 0.72 192 1.06 2.76 0.65 216 1.05 3.28 0.55 240 1.03 3.53 0.48 264 0.97 3.64 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.34 1.08 1.00 0.89 0.90 48 0.31 0.26 1.38 1.30 0.87 0.87 72 0.15 0.07 1.57 1.61 0.83 0.83 96 -0.06 1.85 0.81 120 0.02 2.20 0.75 144 0.28 2.31 0.67 168 0.26 2.47 0.62 192 0.36 2.79 0.52 216 0.44 3.01 0.48 240 0.61 3.13 0.52 264 0.54 3.27 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.49 3.53 3.42 48 -0.65 -0.56 3.88 3.82 72 -0.77 -0.65 4.32 4.27 96 -0.73 4.88 120 -0.73 5.41 144 -0.73 5.90 168 -0.58 6.78 192 -0.60 7.27 216 -0.67 7.90 240 -0.59 8.43 264 -0.74 8.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.27 3.46 3.36 48 -0.38 -0.44 4.09 4.10 72 -0.49 -0.40 5.02 4.98 96 -0.46 5.91 120 -0.59 6.67 144 -0.48 7.80 168 -0.49 8.91 192 -0.54 10.19 216 -0.33 11.62 240 -0.26 12.76 264 -0.91 13.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.38 5.33 5.13 48 -0.63 -0.38 6.87 6.87 72 -0.75 -0.61 9.01 9.09 96 -0.66 11.19 120 -0.80 12.43 144 -0.82 14.55 168 -1.16 16.35 192 -1.25 18.59 216 -1.40 20.83 240 -1.27 22.66 264 -1.99 23.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.39 -2.37 10.71 9.33 0.95 0.94 48 1.38 -0.25 13.68 11.47 0.95 0.94 72 2.78 2.58 16.66 14.30 0.94 0.93 96 2.62 17.63 0.91 120 1.37 21.55 0.87 144 0.33 25.42 0.82 168 1.64 28.82 0.76 192 1.26 32.63 0.71 216 -0.89 35.64 0.69 240 -2.78 38.22 0.65 264 -2.85 39.01 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 96 12 UTC = 96 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.23 -4.07 11.02 11.34 0.93 0.93 48 -1.76 -1.34 13.74 13.77 0.94 0.94 72 0.29 2.25 17.54 17.48 0.93 0.93 96 3.08 22.48 0.90 120 1.93 28.29 0.86 144 1.15 32.63 0.82 168 1.86 39.08 0.76 192 0.67 44.85 0.69 216 -0.88 48.90 0.65 240 -1.65 52.16 0.62 264 -1.36 54.42 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 107 12 UTC = 107 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.24 -7.13 18.65 18.42 0.94 0.93 48 -6.28 -5.27 23.53 23.62 0.95 0.94 72 -4.64 -2.59 29.07 28.99 0.94 0.93 96 -3.42 36.96 0.92 120 -7.15 45.42 0.89 144 -9.28 53.84 0.86 168 -9.59 64.33 0.80 192 -11.08 73.78 0.74 216 -13.16 78.48 0.72 240 -13.59 86.37 0.67 264 -12.40 89.66 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 107 12 UTC = 106 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.37 1.95 1.62 0.84 0.85 48 -0.44 -0.28 2.08 1.80 0.87 0.88 72 -0.36 -0.18 2.26 2.04 0.87 0.87 96 -0.07 2.29 0.86 120 0.02 2.47 0.83 144 0.05 2.82 0.76 168 0.05 3.16 0.70 192 0.01 3.55 0.62 216 0.03 3.80 0.59 240 0.10 4.08 0.54 264 0.13 4.28 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 123 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.02 0.92 0.95 0.81 0.82 48 -0.12 -0.04 1.08 1.10 0.86 0.86 72 -0.14 -0.07 1.26 1.28 0.87 0.87 96 -0.12 1.48 0.86 120 -0.22 1.70 0.84 144 -0.29 1.94 0.81 168 -0.36 2.20 0.75 192 -0.40 2.44 0.70 216 -0.41 2.54 0.67 240 -0.38 2.74 0.63 264 -0.31 2.90 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.20 1.13 1.14 0.84 0.83 48 -0.28 -0.28 1.42 1.44 0.85 0.84 72 -0.35 -0.34 1.67 1.67 0.84 0.83 96 -0.40 1.88 0.81 120 -0.46 2.08 0.80 144 -0.48 2.28 0.79 168 -0.50 2.47 0.74 192 -0.48 2.73 0.69 216 -0.45 2.92 0.65 240 -0.35 3.02 0.63 264 -0.29 3.15 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -0.76 3.67 3.56 48 -0.94 -0.75 4.26 4.12 72 -1.03 -0.79 4.95 4.73 96 -0.75 5.33 120 -0.74 5.98 144 -0.68 6.83 168 -0.63 7.25 192 -0.63 7.56 216 -0.56 7.74 240 -0.53 8.11 264 -0.53 8.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.82 3.92 3.91 48 -1.04 -0.98 4.78 4.72 72 -1.13 -1.04 5.82 5.65 96 -1.02 6.57 120 -0.93 7.57 144 -0.83 8.52 168 -0.69 9.41 192 -0.67 10.00 216 -0.51 10.52 240 -0.56 10.77 264 -0.53 11.03 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.67 5.79 5.93 48 -0.78 -0.87 7.88 7.78 72 -1.00 -1.17 9.40 9.51 96 -1.13 11.19 120 -1.12 12.70 144 -1.05 14.07 168 -1.09 15.68 192 -1.03 17.10 216 -0.80 18.39 240 -0.86 19.08 264 -0.73 19.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 138 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.12 -5.99 8.37 11.54 0.97 0.97 48 -4.00 -5.34 10.77 14.42 0.97 0.97 72 -4.14 -4.73 14.26 17.85 0.96 0.95 96 -5.36 21.51 0.93 120 -8.15 25.84 0.89 144 -7.24 31.62 0.85 168 -7.40 36.76 0.82 192 -11.54 43.55 0.83 216 -15.34 51.16 0.78 240 -21.53 55.26 0.77 264 -22.97 64.13 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.86 -12.88 13.15 17.48 0.97 0.97 48 -9.94 -12.67 17.03 20.86 0.97 0.97 72 -10.03 -11.72 22.53 25.07 0.96 0.98 96 -11.08 30.17 0.95 120 -13.22 35.08 0.91 144 -13.61 45.22 0.86 168 -12.23 51.34 0.88 192 -18.33 62.63 0.86 216 -23.02 73.96 0.78 240 -28.52 81.92 0.78 264 -29.52 89.66 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.12 -11.11 12.71 16.94 0.98 0.97 48 -4.81 -9.84 17.46 21.05 0.98 0.97 72 -4.77 -8.70 24.13 27.61 0.96 0.96 96 -8.17 34.04 0.93 120 -9.13 37.64 0.90 144 -10.72 54.51 0.85 168 -8.54 61.93 0.88 192 -14.80 78.32 0.84 216 -16.54 92.91 0.76 240 -19.39 102.14 0.75 264 -21.17 105.06 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.54 1.13 1.26 0.85 0.85 48 -0.35 -0.50 1.21 1.36 0.88 0.85 72 -0.28 -0.48 1.35 1.48 0.88 0.86 96 -0.43 1.62 0.85 120 -0.47 1.88 0.81 144 -0.45 2.09 0.81 168 -0.50 2.35 0.74 192 -0.34 2.49 0.73 216 -0.30 2.80 0.68 240 -0.38 3.45 0.59 264 -0.36 3.63 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.07 0.92 0.92 0.87 0.87 48 0.06 0.07 1.12 1.17 0.89 0.89 72 0.05 0.12 1.34 1.35 0.85 0.88 96 0.18 1.59 0.82 120 0.25 1.71 0.81 144 0.16 2.00 0.81 168 0.31 2.18 0.78 192 0.09 2.66 0.69 216 0.20 2.98 0.65 240 0.17 3.48 0.56 264 0.16 3.23 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.32 1.22 1.22 0.88 0.91 48 0.54 0.41 1.54 1.54 0.90 0.93 72 0.55 0.43 1.84 1.81 0.89 0.92 96 0.41 2.07 0.89 120 0.47 2.27 0.85 144 0.39 2.46 0.88 168 0.34 2.88 0.83 192 0.62 3.36 0.74 216 0.53 3.65 0.67 240 0.69 4.08 0.65 264 0.67 3.88 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.37 3.68 3.55 48 -0.39 -0.27 4.06 4.18 72 -0.32 -0.26 4.63 4.67 96 -0.33 5.19 120 -0.43 5.96 144 -0.66 6.66 168 -0.67 7.37 192 -0.68 8.24 216 -0.66 8.94 240 -0.35 9.75 264 -0.28 10.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 22 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.63 4.35 4.34 48 -0.67 -0.64 5.27 5.26 72 -0.63 -0.59 6.43 6.10 96 -0.61 7.19 120 -0.67 8.26 144 -0.67 9.81 168 -0.86 10.86 192 -1.10 11.67 216 -0.65 12.79 240 -0.37 13.77 264 0.18 15.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 22 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.13 4.72 4.74 48 -0.40 -0.19 6.01 5.86 72 -0.58 -0.16 7.28 7.16 96 -0.26 8.10 120 -0.40 9.64 144 -0.37 11.85 168 -0.15 14.18 192 -0.50 15.85 216 -0.21 17.56 240 -0.08 19.27 264 0.04 21.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 22 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.39 -4.24 9.07 9.99 0.75 0.72 48 -4.42 -4.05 9.72 10.30 0.82 0.81 72 -4.67 -4.88 10.40 10.92 0.79 0.80 96 -5.60 11.57 0.76 120 -5.62 12.09 0.72 144 -6.31 12.95 0.72 168 -7.60 14.13 0.70 192 -8.71 15.14 0.65 216 -8.71 15.47 0.60 240 -9.24 16.12 0.57 264 -9.64 16.97 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.13 -10.56 15.09 14.94 0.64 0.59 48 -11.64 -11.05 15.83 15.57 0.76 0.71 72 -12.17 -11.94 16.55 16.44 0.75 0.72 96 -12.64 17.13 0.69 120 -12.73 17.47 0.68 144 -13.23 18.09 0.69 168 -14.03 19.03 0.65 192 -14.92 20.05 0.62 216 -14.88 20.41 0.60 240 -15.22 21.18 0.57 264 -15.30 21.64 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.86 -8.81 14.59 14.75 0.65 0.64 48 -8.99 -9.81 15.80 16.04 0.78 0.75 72 -9.84 -11.19 16.82 17.54 0.79 0.75 96 -11.88 18.58 0.73 120 -12.22 19.35 0.71 144 -12.47 20.34 0.70 168 -12.76 21.28 0.69 192 -13.47 22.37 0.65 216 -13.33 23.16 0.62 240 -12.93 23.60 0.62 264 -12.59 23.51 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.47 1.11 1.18 0.48 0.48 48 -0.41 -0.46 1.15 1.21 0.60 0.57 72 -0.38 -0.40 1.15 1.22 0.58 0.57 96 -0.38 1.25 0.57 120 -0.37 1.28 0.58 144 -0.35 1.29 0.57 168 -0.32 1.32 0.52 192 -0.31 1.36 0.49 216 -0.29 1.42 0.48 240 -0.31 1.45 0.48 264 -0.30 1.45 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.07 0.85 0.80 0.52 0.51 48 0.11 0.05 0.88 0.81 0.62 0.62 72 0.10 0.04 0.91 0.85 0.63 0.62 96 0.05 0.91 0.60 120 0.03 0.96 0.59 144 0.01 1.01 0.58 168 0.02 1.06 0.61 192 0.03 1.09 0.61 216 0.01 1.14 0.58 240 0.02 1.13 0.59 264 0.03 1.15 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.08 0.68 0.61 0.59 0.62 48 0.13 0.03 0.74 0.68 0.65 0.68 72 0.12 0.02 0.79 0.75 0.65 0.67 96 0.04 0.80 0.62 120 0.04 0.83 0.64 144 0.05 0.88 0.63 168 0.05 0.92 0.61 192 0.06 0.95 0.60 216 0.07 0.97 0.61 240 0.11 0.99 0.60 264 0.13 1.03 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.60 3.30 3.35 48 -0.76 -0.83 3.51 3.60 72 -0.82 -0.94 3.79 3.84 96 -0.89 4.11 120 -0.86 4.28 144 -0.86 4.49 168 -0.82 4.79 192 -0.75 5.03 216 -0.76 5.26 240 -0.70 5.31 264 -0.57 5.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.00 -0.96 3.76 3.76 48 -1.21 -1.19 4.13 4.15 72 -1.35 -1.36 4.54 4.56 96 -1.42 4.94 120 -1.41 5.22 144 -1.50 5.53 168 -1.66 5.97 192 -1.71 6.46 216 -1.76 6.66 240 -1.74 6.84 264 -1.66 7.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.64 4.91 4.79 48 -0.48 -0.64 6.06 6.03 72 -0.40 -0.53 7.10 7.25 96 -0.47 8.11 120 -0.37 8.62 144 -0.34 8.85 168 -0.34 9.05 192 -0.47 9.51 216 -0.44 10.07 240 -0.49 10.53 264 -0.72 10.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.65 -3.29 9.25 8.73 0.97 0.96 48 -1.85 -2.85 11.70 11.15 0.97 0.97 72 -0.47 -1.29 15.00 14.39 0.96 0.96 96 -0.39 18.56 0.93 120 0.16 23.66 0.90 144 0.59 28.88 0.85 168 1.12 34.24 0.80 192 1.77 39.26 0.74 216 2.07 43.66 0.70 240 2.32 47.04 0.65 264 3.19 49.52 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 340 12 UTC = 338 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.81 -5.71 11.76 11.37 0.96 0.96 48 -4.85 -5.12 14.45 14.36 0.97 0.97 72 -3.12 -3.11 18.92 18.71 0.96 0.96 96 -1.85 24.76 0.93 120 -0.96 31.46 0.90 144 -0.15 39.31 0.86 168 0.74 47.96 0.80 192 1.63 56.78 0.74 216 2.60 64.16 0.68 240 3.61 68.98 0.64 264 4.58 72.96 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 356 12 UTC = 351 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.31 -7.30 17.02 16.54 0.97 0.97 48 -8.19 -8.43 22.77 22.85 0.97 0.97 72 -8.02 -8.19 31.05 30.58 0.96 0.96 96 -8.39 40.90 0.93 120 -8.47 51.16 0.90 144 -7.89 63.84 0.86 168 -7.43 77.51 0.80 192 -6.26 91.29 0.73 216 -4.79 102.65 0.68 240 -3.07 110.46 0.64 264 -2.94 115.44 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 356 12 UTC = 351 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.41 1.55 1.48 0.86 0.86 48 -0.39 -0.37 1.70 1.65 0.89 0.88 72 -0.32 -0.30 1.91 1.87 0.88 0.88 96 -0.22 2.16 0.85 120 -0.15 2.42 0.82 144 -0.12 2.78 0.76 168 -0.08 3.15 0.70 192 -0.03 3.52 0.65 216 0.05 3.86 0.61 240 0.09 4.13 0.57 264 0.09 4.29 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 377 12 UTC = 372 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.03 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 48 -0.03 0.01 1.03 1.04 0.90 0.90 72 -0.06 -0.03 1.26 1.25 0.89 0.89 96 -0.07 1.52 0.87 120 -0.11 1.78 0.84 144 -0.13 2.06 0.79 168 -0.15 2.35 0.73 192 -0.12 2.65 0.67 216 -0.12 2.87 0.64 240 -0.10 3.05 0.61 264 -0.10 3.17 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 404 12 UTC = 398 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.05 1.08 1.07 0.88 0.88 48 -0.02 -0.03 1.38 1.37 0.88 0.87 72 -0.09 -0.11 1.68 1.67 0.86 0.85 96 -0.18 1.95 0.82 120 -0.21 2.23 0.79 144 -0.19 2.49 0.75 168 -0.23 2.68 0.71 192 -0.22 2.90 0.67 216 -0.17 3.09 0.64 240 -0.06 3.24 0.62 264 -0.04 3.35 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 396 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.79 3.55 3.52 48 -0.89 -0.85 4.04 4.02 72 -0.97 -0.91 4.63 4.61 96 -0.93 5.28 120 -0.95 5.98 144 -0.91 6.72 168 -0.83 7.33 192 -0.83 7.71 216 -0.77 8.07 240 -0.69 8.46 264 -0.70 8.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 361 12 UTC = 357 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.62 3.69 3.67 48 -0.77 -0.73 4.46 4.45 72 -0.84 -0.78 5.45 5.40 96 -0.78 6.45 120 -0.79 7.48 144 -0.73 8.57 168 -0.62 9.64 192 -0.60 10.42 216 -0.44 11.21 240 -0.40 11.72 264 -0.45 12.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 394 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.67 5.47 5.48 48 -0.78 -0.81 7.26 7.26 72 -0.93 -0.93 9.12 9.19 96 -0.93 11.21 120 -0.98 13.00 144 -0.97 14.84 168 -0.98 16.76 192 -1.00 18.18 216 -0.88 19.59 240 -0.90 20.55 264 -0.91 21.09 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 392 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.75 8.52 10.34 0.98 0.97 48 -1.56 -1.52 11.95 14.48 0.97 0.97 72 -2.05 -2.07 17.13 19.26 0.96 0.96 96 -2.14 26.65 0.93 120 -3.07 32.80 0.89 144 -3.56 41.25 0.83 168 -5.68 47.15 0.79 192 -7.70 53.82 0.78 216 -10.23 56.43 0.75 240 -10.95 59.13 0.73 264 -9.94 66.44 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.37 -8.57 13.09 14.71 0.98 0.98 48 -8.58 -9.70 18.89 20.39 0.98 0.98 72 -9.14 -9.95 27.24 27.42 0.95 0.97 96 -8.20 37.18 0.94 120 -8.74 46.18 0.90 144 -11.22 58.30 0.87 168 -12.33 68.00 0.82 192 -18.01 82.74 0.78 216 -20.12 85.38 0.77 240 -21.94 88.19 0.73 264 -19.74 97.23 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.61 -8.80 15.72 18.62 0.98 0.98 48 -5.89 -10.05 23.42 25.68 0.98 0.98 72 -6.60 -10.49 32.94 36.33 0.96 0.97 96 -9.46 48.81 0.95 120 -9.77 60.87 0.93 144 -13.40 79.88 0.87 168 -16.60 94.29 0.83 192 -23.62 113.11 0.79 216 -26.56 124.21 0.75 240 -30.38 128.87 0.71 264 -28.89 134.48 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.88 1.52 1.80 0.89 0.90 48 -0.68 -0.83 1.68 1.93 0.92 0.92 72 -0.63 -0.73 1.84 2.06 0.91 0.91 96 -0.60 2.26 0.91 120 -0.49 2.61 0.87 144 -0.44 3.11 0.82 168 -0.35 3.51 0.78 192 -0.49 4.11 0.71 216 -0.59 4.44 0.63 240 -0.64 4.70 0.64 264 -0.45 4.99 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.02 0.98 1.01 0.90 0.92 48 -0.04 -0.06 1.22 1.23 0.91 0.93 72 -0.08 -0.04 1.51 1.52 0.89 0.92 96 0.01 1.88 0.90 120 0.03 2.24 0.86 144 -0.10 2.58 0.84 168 -0.16 2.94 0.80 192 -0.25 3.40 0.74 216 -0.17 3.66 0.71 240 -0.40 3.95 0.64 264 -0.29 3.88 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.20 1.24 1.20 0.89 0.92 48 0.36 0.15 1.54 1.44 0.91 0.92 72 0.37 0.11 1.84 1.73 0.89 0.90 96 0.00 1.99 0.89 120 -0.02 2.35 0.85 144 -0.08 2.61 0.82 168 -0.16 3.01 0.79 192 -0.17 3.36 0.74 216 -0.30 3.64 0.68 240 -0.24 3.92 0.65 264 -0.38 4.01 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.63 4.29 4.28 48 -0.56 -0.63 4.72 4.85 72 -0.57 -0.68 5.34 5.41 96 -0.71 6.17 120 -0.63 7.10 144 -0.91 7.91 168 -0.81 8.78 192 -0.74 9.58 216 -0.86 10.00 240 -0.78 10.44 264 -0.87 11.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.42 4.51 4.60 48 -0.54 -0.34 5.55 5.63 72 -0.61 -0.25 6.79 6.86 96 -0.35 8.17 120 -0.31 9.43 144 -0.31 11.21 168 -0.27 12.69 192 -0.22 13.88 216 0.23 14.45 240 0.14 14.88 264 0.30 16.09 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.47 5.13 5.35 48 -0.41 -0.52 6.56 6.75 72 -0.53 -0.41 8.10 8.67 96 -0.66 10.25 120 -0.85 12.58 144 -0.98 14.96 168 -0.88 18.36 192 -1.13 20.19 216 -0.86 21.56 240 -0.78 22.57 264 -0.78 24.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 44 ---------------------------------------------------------