VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY SEPTEMBER 2014 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 0.79 0.81 0.99 0.99 17.9 18.2 48 0.04 0.02 1.42 1.45 0.97 0.97 28.1 28.3 72 0.11 0.09 2.21 2.22 0.94 0.94 37.7 37.9 96 0.18 3.09 0.88 47.3 120 0.22 4.06 0.79 55.9 144 0.25 5.03 0.68 64.0 168 0.33 5.84 0.57 70.5 192 0.41 6.57 0.47 75.1 216 0.46 7.18 0.38 78.6 240 0.52 7.67 0.30 81.3 264 0.57 7.94 0.25 83.3 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.35 5.76 6.09 1.00 1.00 11.2 11.2 48 0.85 0.74 11.71 12.05 0.99 0.99 19.8 19.9 72 1.52 1.36 19.63 19.91 0.96 0.96 28.8 28.9 96 2.14 29.25 0.92 37.6 120 2.48 39.84 0.85 45.9 144 2.86 50.75 0.75 53.4 168 3.90 60.55 0.65 60.3 192 4.97 69.17 0.54 65.0 216 5.88 77.25 0.44 69.1 240 6.97 82.73 0.36 71.6 264 7.62 86.87 0.30 73.4 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.65 0.76 8.65 9.08 1.00 1.00 10.0 10.2 48 0.44 0.42 17.60 17.91 0.99 0.99 17.8 17.9 72 0.15 0.22 28.89 29.42 0.96 0.96 25.9 26.2 96 0.06 42.59 0.92 34.2 120 -0.25 58.29 0.86 42.2 144 -0.48 73.86 0.77 49.0 168 0.14 88.26 0.67 55.2 192 1.11 101.93 0.56 60.0 216 2.47 113.02 0.47 64.0 240 3.76 121.54 0.39 66.8 264 4.09 127.58 0.33 68.8 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.04 0.43 0.44 0.99 0.99 48 0.04 0.04 0.78 0.79 0.97 0.97 72 0.02 0.02 1.17 1.18 0.93 0.93 96 -0.01 1.57 0.87 120 -0.04 2.01 0.79 144 -0.06 2.42 0.69 168 -0.06 2.78 0.59 192 -0.05 3.08 0.50 216 -0.04 3.36 0.41 240 -0.02 3.59 0.34 264 -0.03 3.69 0.29 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.60 0.59 0.98 0.98 48 -0.08 -0.08 1.01 1.02 0.94 0.94 72 -0.13 -0.11 1.47 1.45 0.87 0.88 96 -0.14 1.90 0.78 120 -0.15 2.33 0.67 144 -0.15 2.70 0.56 168 -0.16 3.01 0.45 192 -0.14 3.23 0.37 216 -0.09 3.48 0.28 240 -0.07 3.61 0.24 264 -0.05 3.70 0.21 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.14 1.93 1.94 48 -0.26 -0.26 3.41 3.41 72 -0.35 -0.34 4.93 4.96 96 -0.42 6.47 120 -0.42 7.99 144 -0.42 9.40 168 -0.43 10.67 192 -0.45 11.69 216 -0.41 12.55 240 -0.39 13.12 264 -0.39 13.49 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.21 3.22 3.24 48 -0.43 -0.39 5.46 5.49 72 -0.56 -0.52 7.82 7.94 96 -0.58 10.34 120 -0.61 12.77 144 -0.65 15.03 168 -0.75 17.03 192 -0.84 18.81 216 -0.79 20.15 240 -0.72 21.27 264 -0.72 21.86 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.41 3.04 3.00 0.97 0.97 25.3 25.1 48 -0.63 -0.66 4.62 4.59 0.94 0.94 34.2 33.6 72 -1.09 -1.02 5.81 5.79 0.90 0.90 39.4 39.3 96 -1.36 6.80 0.86 43.7 120 -1.50 7.72 0.82 47.0 144 -1.43 8.80 0.76 50.1 168 -1.64 9.88 0.71 52.7 192 -2.13 11.03 0.66 54.6 216 -2.85 12.20 0.62 56.5 240 -3.71 12.92 0.59 57.7 264 -4.48 13.60 0.57 58.7 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.28 1.00 5.07 4.85 0.97 0.97 24.3 24.0 48 0.04 -0.29 7.10 7.06 0.94 0.93 32.8 32.6 72 -1.30 -1.43 8.95 8.87 0.90 0.90 38.6 38.5 96 -2.04 10.36 0.86 42.6 120 -2.28 12.03 0.81 46.4 144 -2.10 13.65 0.76 49.8 168 -1.67 15.33 0.71 53.1 192 -0.99 16.96 0.65 55.9 216 -0.21 18.69 0.57 58.6 240 0.57 20.71 0.49 60.9 264 1.19 21.46 0.46 62.0 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.03 0.42 0.44 0.96 0.96 48 -0.01 0.00 0.67 0.68 0.88 0.90 72 0.03 0.03 0.84 0.85 0.82 0.85 96 0.07 0.98 0.81 120 0.11 1.09 0.76 144 0.13 1.18 0.72 168 0.14 1.31 0.67 192 0.15 1.42 0.62 216 0.16 1.52 0.57 240 0.22 1.60 0.52 264 0.27 1.65 0.49 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.37 0.36 0.91 0.91 48 -0.05 -0.06 0.52 0.50 0.82 0.83 72 -0.08 -0.10 0.63 0.61 0.73 0.73 96 -0.11 0.69 0.64 120 -0.11 0.75 0.57 144 -0.10 0.83 0.48 168 -0.07 0.88 0.42 192 -0.03 0.92 0.38 216 0.02 0.96 0.33 240 0.07 1.01 0.29 264 0.13 1.06 0.24 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.09 1.46 1.44 48 -0.22 -0.21 2.22 2.17 72 -0.29 -0.29 2.77 2.72 96 -0.31 3.18 120 -0.28 3.57 144 -0.27 3.92 168 -0.21 4.23 192 -0.12 4.50 216 -0.06 4.76 240 -0.06 4.96 264 -0.03 5.08 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.36 3.04 3.06 48 -0.54 -0.59 4.51 4.54 72 -0.68 -0.68 5.60 5.61 96 -0.71 6.41 120 -0.69 7.15 144 -0.68 7.89 168 -0.62 8.61 192 -0.53 9.18 216 -0.49 9.71 240 -0.49 10.15 264 -0.55 10.63 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.05 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.00 12.5 12.2 48 0.02 0.05 2.05 2.01 0.98 0.98 22.3 21.9 72 0.01 0.03 3.27 3.19 0.96 0.96 31.4 30.9 96 -0.02 4.45 0.92 38.7 120 -0.02 5.96 0.87 46.3 144 -0.07 7.40 0.79 52.5 168 -0.13 8.88 0.69 58.9 192 -0.15 10.08 0.60 63.6 216 -0.11 10.88 0.52 66.1 240 -0.04 11.60 0.46 68.4 264 0.02 12.03 0.42 69.4 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.65 0.55 8.80 8.73 1.00 1.00 10.0 9.9 48 0.55 0.63 18.60 18.35 0.99 0.99 18.7 18.5 72 0.49 0.50 30.70 30.11 0.96 0.96 27.1 26.7 96 0.17 43.14 0.92 34.0 120 0.14 58.47 0.86 41.3 144 0.14 74.99 0.77 47.9 168 0.21 90.90 0.67 53.9 192 0.98 104.62 0.56 59.0 216 2.07 114.03 0.47 62.4 240 2.43 121.78 0.39 64.7 264 2.50 128.64 0.32 66.6 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.73 0.68 11.24 11.26 1.00 1.00 8.1 8.0 48 0.49 0.56 22.95 23.04 0.99 0.99 14.4 14.3 72 0.25 0.39 37.89 37.36 0.96 0.97 21.1 20.8 96 0.40 54.00 0.93 27.1 120 1.20 74.22 0.87 33.8 144 1.76 96.83 0.78 40.3 168 1.86 117.20 0.68 45.8 192 2.48 135.76 0.57 50.8 216 4.04 148.57 0.48 54.5 240 4.37 160.91 0.39 57.2 264 3.62 169.06 0.32 59.3 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 0.54 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 0.01 0.01 1.03 1.02 0.96 0.96 72 0.00 0.01 1.56 1.53 0.91 0.92 96 0.00 2.05 0.85 120 0.02 2.62 0.77 144 0.05 3.17 0.66 168 0.05 3.63 0.55 192 0.09 4.02 0.43 216 0.12 4.32 0.34 240 0.10 4.62 0.26 264 0.06 4.76 0.22 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.01 0.62 0.62 0.99 0.99 48 -0.03 -0.04 1.08 1.07 0.96 0.96 72 -0.04 -0.05 1.55 1.54 0.91 0.91 96 -0.03 1.97 0.85 120 0.01 2.41 0.78 144 0.04 2.84 0.69 168 0.05 3.28 0.58 192 0.06 3.69 0.46 216 0.04 3.94 0.39 240 0.06 4.11 0.33 264 0.04 4.25 0.28 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.05 2.46 2.44 48 -0.08 -0.07 4.68 4.62 72 -0.06 -0.06 6.86 6.76 96 -0.03 8.75 120 0.02 10.81 144 0.05 12.80 168 0.05 14.71 192 -0.03 16.18 216 -0.15 17.26 240 -0.16 18.10 264 -0.24 18.68 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 3.27 3.30 48 -0.18 -0.16 5.80 5.82 72 -0.23 -0.20 8.42 8.41 96 -0.19 10.98 120 -0.17 13.79 144 -0.17 16.88 168 -0.16 19.43 192 -0.29 21.72 216 -0.41 23.66 240 -0.41 25.31 264 -0.52 26.23 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.46 -2.86 7.39 8.01 0.98 0.98 48 -2.14 -1.67 10.14 10.94 0.97 0.97 72 0.49 -0.17 14.35 14.99 0.96 0.95 96 1.82 18.99 0.93 120 3.17 24.64 0.86 144 2.56 31.78 0.76 168 -1.03 37.21 0.71 192 -2.46 40.86 0.69 216 -2.15 45.78 0.61 240 -3.73 49.56 0.49 264 -8.46 53.84 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.42 -6.85 10.45 10.91 0.98 0.98 48 -5.72 -6.51 13.72 14.19 0.98 0.98 72 -3.03 -5.23 17.76 18.81 0.96 0.96 96 -4.25 24.28 0.94 120 -3.08 32.35 0.88 144 -3.70 43.85 0.81 168 -6.54 51.21 0.77 192 -6.18 58.59 0.71 216 -1.66 66.80 0.64 240 -0.21 75.13 0.56 264 -5.46 78.82 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.28 -8.63 13.82 14.72 0.99 0.99 48 -8.21 -10.26 19.65 20.88 0.98 0.98 72 -7.02 -10.33 27.50 29.73 0.97 0.97 96 -11.49 38.08 0.95 120 -12.15 52.12 0.90 144 -12.78 69.63 0.85 168 -15.85 82.79 0.80 192 -14.62 95.78 0.76 216 -5.87 109.39 0.68 240 -1.96 121.11 0.64 264 -7.19 126.10 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.39 1.23 1.59 0.92 0.92 48 -0.02 -0.36 1.48 1.78 0.93 0.93 72 0.08 -0.32 1.80 2.05 0.92 0.92 96 -0.32 2.32 0.90 120 -0.29 2.65 0.87 144 -0.30 3.16 0.80 168 -0.18 3.66 0.76 192 -0.03 4.07 0.71 216 0.28 4.52 0.64 240 0.59 4.89 0.58 264 0.51 5.27 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.07 0.80 0.83 0.93 0.93 48 -0.07 -0.13 0.99 1.02 0.94 0.94 72 -0.10 -0.16 1.24 1.33 0.93 0.92 96 -0.25 1.61 0.89 120 -0.31 1.98 0.84 144 -0.36 2.45 0.77 168 -0.35 2.72 0.73 192 -0.25 3.03 0.69 216 0.00 3.37 0.62 240 0.11 3.64 0.58 264 0.06 3.76 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.12 0.90 0.87 0.90 0.92 48 0.10 0.03 1.12 1.09 0.90 0.91 72 0.01 -0.06 1.35 1.35 0.88 0.89 96 -0.14 1.63 0.86 120 -0.23 1.95 0.79 144 -0.21 2.32 0.70 168 -0.20 2.63 0.64 192 -0.22 2.79 0.64 216 -0.09 2.98 0.60 240 0.05 3.18 0.54 264 0.17 3.31 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.92 3.56 3.66 48 -0.83 -0.87 4.01 4.17 72 -0.78 -0.89 4.73 4.86 96 -0.96 5.47 120 -1.05 6.22 144 -0.95 7.40 168 -0.76 8.17 192 -0.76 8.45 216 -0.67 8.99 240 -0.71 9.26 264 -0.24 9.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.79 3.74 3.77 48 -0.96 -1.01 4.50 4.57 72 -1.10 -1.10 5.53 5.70 96 -1.16 6.72 120 -1.12 8.24 144 -1.06 9.78 168 -1.08 10.86 192 -1.12 11.54 216 -1.01 12.67 240 -0.58 13.64 264 0.19 14.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.93 5.65 5.53 48 -1.10 -1.19 7.13 7.12 72 -1.47 -1.54 8.93 9.21 96 -1.68 10.99 120 -1.73 13.51 144 -1.56 16.37 168 -1.71 18.47 192 -1.57 20.12 216 -1.83 22.39 240 -1.18 23.61 264 -0.67 24.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.97 -4.46 8.45 8.94 0.96 0.96 48 -3.09 -5.69 10.37 11.33 0.97 0.97 72 -0.96 -4.10 14.43 15.37 0.96 0.95 96 -0.98 19.15 0.92 120 0.08 24.49 0.90 144 -1.82 31.38 0.87 168 0.14 38.15 0.82 192 0.24 47.62 0.75 216 -3.59 53.04 0.69 240 -4.91 59.58 0.58 264 -7.50 64.16 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.78 -6.70 11.46 11.28 0.97 0.97 48 -5.34 -7.76 14.85 15.45 0.97 0.98 72 -1.88 -4.86 21.97 22.23 0.95 0.95 96 -0.50 30.05 0.92 120 1.77 40.57 0.89 144 0.52 51.29 0.83 168 4.49 59.55 0.81 192 6.36 71.35 0.73 216 -0.01 83.39 0.66 240 -4.48 96.72 0.56 264 -9.52 103.88 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.97 -6.36 15.07 14.99 0.98 0.97 48 -3.64 -6.85 21.36 21.79 0.97 0.98 72 0.92 -3.33 32.70 32.00 0.95 0.95 96 2.14 45.26 0.92 120 5.35 64.37 0.87 144 2.85 79.26 0.80 168 7.60 92.88 0.75 192 9.32 106.89 0.67 216 -3.53 123.68 0.60 240 -10.21 142.11 0.53 264 -16.94 152.17 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 0.10 1.19 1.16 0.82 0.81 48 -0.09 0.13 1.34 1.29 0.85 0.86 72 0.05 0.21 1.52 1.52 0.85 0.86 96 0.38 1.85 0.83 120 0.51 2.22 0.80 144 0.58 2.56 0.74 168 0.72 2.98 0.66 192 0.88 3.25 0.58 216 0.80 3.54 0.51 240 0.57 4.00 0.41 264 0.37 4.17 0.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.06 0.81 0.77 0.89 0.90 48 0.13 0.09 1.00 0.98 0.90 0.91 72 0.21 0.17 1.33 1.31 0.86 0.87 96 0.20 1.70 0.82 120 0.34 2.12 0.76 144 0.34 2.45 0.65 168 0.45 2.67 0.62 192 0.50 2.79 0.58 216 0.23 3.10 0.51 240 0.00 3.42 0.50 264 -0.11 3.49 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.22 0.94 0.89 0.90 0.90 48 0.25 0.18 1.19 1.10 0.89 0.90 72 0.29 0.18 1.52 1.45 0.85 0.86 96 0.27 1.76 0.81 120 0.22 1.97 0.77 144 0.14 2.37 0.66 168 0.05 2.46 0.64 192 -0.04 2.85 0.55 216 -0.26 2.92 0.50 240 -0.23 3.02 0.54 264 -0.30 2.87 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.59 3.50 3.39 48 -0.76 -0.69 3.81 3.72 72 -0.88 -0.77 4.38 4.21 96 -0.86 4.94 120 -0.91 5.65 144 -0.92 6.54 168 -0.90 7.11 192 -0.82 8.12 216 -0.80 8.65 240 -0.64 9.12 264 -0.47 9.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.58 3.61 3.50 48 -0.69 -0.67 4.50 4.27 72 -0.77 -0.80 5.89 5.54 96 -0.95 7.14 120 -1.05 8.90 144 -1.25 10.41 168 -1.02 11.52 192 -1.08 13.03 216 -0.85 14.03 240 -0.62 15.07 264 -0.22 15.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.96 5.41 5.30 48 -0.98 -1.02 7.29 6.86 72 -0.84 -1.14 10.12 9.34 96 -1.16 12.40 120 -1.28 15.58 144 -1.58 18.34 168 -1.28 20.59 192 -1.71 22.46 216 -1.66 23.89 240 -0.87 26.07 264 -0.40 26.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 -1.21 10.95 8.54 0.96 0.95 48 1.04 0.12 13.75 10.73 0.96 0.96 72 0.37 1.07 17.56 14.60 0.94 0.94 96 1.24 18.66 0.90 120 1.41 23.03 0.84 144 2.21 27.90 0.75 168 5.76 34.28 0.64 192 7.38 36.91 0.58 216 9.21 40.64 0.52 240 10.50 41.66 0.52 264 9.84 44.05 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 96 12 UTC = 97 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.91 -2.19 11.25 10.95 0.96 0.95 48 -1.13 0.34 13.93 13.81 0.96 0.96 72 -1.23 1.85 17.93 18.38 0.96 0.95 96 2.31 23.75 0.93 120 3.00 29.86 0.89 144 4.08 36.38 0.83 168 8.32 44.92 0.77 192 9.67 50.48 0.73 216 12.12 54.78 0.69 240 15.00 56.55 0.67 264 14.38 61.34 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 107 12 UTC = 107 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.69 -4.04 18.54 17.61 0.96 0.96 48 -5.47 -2.76 22.99 22.56 0.97 0.97 72 -7.18 -2.76 29.40 29.25 0.96 0.96 96 -4.37 37.97 0.93 120 -5.23 46.94 0.91 144 -6.45 55.93 0.88 168 -2.58 68.54 0.83 192 -0.86 78.38 0.78 216 2.31 83.63 0.75 240 5.14 89.11 0.73 264 5.11 98.88 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 107 12 UTC = 106 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.44 1.77 1.59 0.90 0.90 48 -0.42 -0.32 1.91 1.74 0.92 0.92 72 -0.36 -0.21 2.15 1.92 0.91 0.92 96 -0.15 2.16 0.89 120 -0.04 2.53 0.85 144 0.05 2.85 0.78 168 0.12 3.28 0.72 192 0.16 3.81 0.64 216 0.21 4.08 0.61 240 0.35 4.37 0.58 264 0.41 4.58 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.02 0.96 0.94 0.89 0.90 48 -0.07 -0.02 1.15 1.12 0.92 0.93 72 -0.12 -0.08 1.36 1.33 0.92 0.92 96 -0.11 1.57 0.88 120 -0.12 1.86 0.85 144 -0.16 2.11 0.82 168 -0.15 2.46 0.79 192 -0.14 2.84 0.74 216 -0.10 3.07 0.69 240 -0.01 3.28 0.64 264 -0.05 3.56 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 0.03 1.11 1.09 0.88 0.88 48 -0.14 -0.06 1.35 1.35 0.89 0.89 72 -0.22 -0.11 1.62 1.60 0.88 0.88 96 -0.22 1.87 0.84 120 -0.30 2.16 0.80 144 -0.36 2.38 0.77 168 -0.48 2.65 0.72 192 -0.39 2.87 0.67 216 -0.39 3.07 0.63 240 -0.31 3.16 0.63 264 -0.15 3.41 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.98 -0.75 3.76 3.61 48 -1.11 -0.80 4.31 4.08 72 -1.14 -0.92 4.97 4.67 96 -0.90 5.36 120 -1.00 6.14 144 -0.97 6.90 168 -0.82 7.76 192 -0.68 8.03 216 -0.66 8.24 240 -0.51 8.30 264 -0.26 8.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 122 12 UTC = 123 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -0.72 3.99 3.97 48 -1.20 -0.97 5.00 4.89 72 -1.36 -1.21 6.05 5.95 96 -1.23 6.88 120 -1.32 8.07 144 -1.36 8.93 168 -1.43 9.89 192 -1.45 10.68 216 -1.34 10.90 240 -1.36 11.33 264 -1.29 12.03 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.53 5.12 5.31 48 -0.80 -0.78 6.65 6.82 72 -0.96 -0.98 8.26 8.41 96 -1.02 9.98 120 -0.97 11.99 144 -1.19 13.44 168 -1.31 15.04 192 -1.49 16.39 216 -1.48 16.84 240 -1.50 17.80 264 -1.44 19.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.40 -4.49 9.03 10.27 0.98 0.99 48 -3.89 -3.75 10.82 13.28 0.99 0.98 72 -4.19 -4.72 14.95 17.59 0.97 0.97 96 -6.23 23.72 0.95 120 -9.06 36.32 0.88 144 -11.50 42.23 0.86 168 -16.71 51.70 0.79 192 -18.49 63.75 0.65 216 -13.49 62.14 0.64 240 -17.84 68.82 0.65 264 -18.99 66.04 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.68 -10.52 13.10 15.39 0.98 0.98 48 -8.16 -9.69 15.74 19.22 0.98 0.98 72 -8.35 -10.31 21.48 25.81 0.97 0.97 96 -12.36 35.75 0.94 120 -13.85 50.19 0.87 144 -17.90 62.89 0.81 168 -25.61 74.59 0.74 192 -28.22 93.09 0.58 216 -19.38 91.25 0.59 240 -25.38 96.60 0.58 264 -28.21 95.68 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.45 -8.86 12.72 15.76 0.99 0.98 48 -4.43 -8.14 16.81 20.16 0.99 0.98 72 -5.08 -9.09 24.92 27.35 0.98 0.98 96 -10.10 40.19 0.96 120 -10.74 57.81 0.89 144 -12.78 77.30 0.85 168 -19.95 93.39 0.75 192 -21.85 118.64 0.61 216 -10.07 119.06 0.59 240 -16.69 118.76 0.62 264 -19.56 122.37 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.38 1.15 1.25 0.87 0.88 48 -0.29 -0.31 1.20 1.39 0.91 0.90 72 -0.22 -0.25 1.43 1.59 0.91 0.89 96 -0.24 1.98 0.87 120 -0.18 2.43 0.82 144 -0.22 2.84 0.71 168 -0.42 3.38 0.64 192 -0.55 3.85 0.52 216 -0.56 3.94 0.47 240 -0.52 3.46 0.57 264 -0.38 3.83 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.01 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.90 48 0.02 0.03 1.01 0.98 0.93 0.93 72 0.06 0.03 1.31 1.18 0.91 0.93 96 0.02 1.55 0.90 120 0.11 1.99 0.80 144 0.06 2.39 0.77 168 0.02 2.95 0.63 192 -0.08 3.54 0.48 216 0.29 3.46 0.51 240 0.14 3.63 0.47 264 -0.08 3.48 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.32 0.36 1.16 1.23 0.92 0.93 48 0.33 0.35 1.36 1.50 0.92 0.92 72 0.29 0.40 1.63 1.77 0.90 0.88 96 0.48 2.12 0.87 120 0.47 2.69 0.78 144 0.67 2.86 0.78 168 0.73 3.34 0.71 192 0.85 3.94 0.69 216 0.65 4.05 0.64 240 1.10 4.41 0.62 264 1.27 4.73 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 31 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.33 3.77 3.94 48 -0.47 -0.39 4.15 4.37 72 -0.57 -0.50 4.93 4.98 96 -0.60 5.99 120 -0.56 7.29 144 -0.44 8.18 168 -0.45 9.64 192 -0.41 10.74 216 -0.31 11.29 240 -0.33 11.02 264 -0.21 11.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 18 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.69 4.38 4.46 48 -1.03 -0.76 5.19 5.29 72 -1.08 -0.76 6.45 6.57 96 -0.79 8.06 120 -0.72 9.92 144 -0.54 11.03 168 0.03 13.92 192 -0.70 14.88 216 -0.77 15.99 240 -1.31 15.98 264 -0.42 16.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 18 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.75 5.11 5.18 48 -1.17 -0.86 6.22 6.18 72 -1.46 -0.97 7.86 7.45 96 -0.81 9.51 120 -0.56 12.29 144 -0.20 14.29 168 0.49 17.49 192 -0.20 19.42 216 -0.46 21.51 240 -0.42 22.52 264 0.47 22.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 18 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.43 -4.89 9.82 10.30 0.75 0.75 48 -4.38 -4.89 10.52 10.92 0.83 0.83 72 -5.19 -5.94 11.58 11.94 0.82 0.82 96 -6.84 12.77 0.79 120 -7.04 13.41 0.73 144 -7.27 14.16 0.71 168 -8.04 15.08 0.70 192 -8.76 16.14 0.66 216 -9.00 16.80 0.60 240 -9.79 17.74 0.58 264 -10.40 18.40 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.36 -10.48 14.36 14.79 0.70 0.62 48 -10.56 -10.61 15.01 15.36 0.80 0.74 72 -11.49 -11.76 16.17 16.37 0.80 0.76 96 -12.47 17.11 0.72 120 -12.31 17.38 0.70 144 -12.22 17.78 0.67 168 -12.67 18.43 0.67 192 -12.87 19.00 0.64 216 -12.62 19.42 0.58 240 -12.61 19.84 0.51 264 -12.91 20.53 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.43 -8.67 14.11 15.28 0.66 0.58 48 -8.26 -9.26 15.44 16.63 0.78 0.72 72 -9.51 -10.72 17.11 18.11 0.79 0.71 96 -11.25 19.03 0.69 120 -10.79 19.49 0.64 144 -10.48 20.41 0.61 168 -10.30 21.26 0.58 192 -9.56 22.12 0.57 216 -8.51 23.14 0.54 240 -7.62 24.17 0.51 264 -6.89 24.97 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.45 1.12 1.15 0.50 0.45 48 -0.51 -0.45 1.14 1.22 0.59 0.56 72 -0.48 -0.42 1.17 1.26 0.59 0.58 96 -0.37 1.35 0.56 120 -0.32 1.39 0.55 144 -0.28 1.41 0.53 168 -0.26 1.43 0.51 192 -0.25 1.44 0.53 216 -0.23 1.49 0.50 240 -0.21 1.54 0.44 264 -0.18 1.59 0.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.19 0.84 0.81 0.52 0.52 48 0.20 0.20 0.88 0.86 0.62 0.59 72 0.18 0.18 0.93 0.91 0.64 0.60 96 0.19 0.97 0.55 120 0.20 1.02 0.51 144 0.19 1.05 0.51 168 0.18 1.08 0.48 192 0.24 1.13 0.46 216 0.26 1.15 0.48 240 0.28 1.19 0.47 264 0.28 1.20 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.06 0.67 0.58 0.60 0.64 48 0.06 0.01 0.73 0.65 0.67 0.68 72 0.06 0.00 0.79 0.72 0.63 0.64 96 0.02 0.78 0.59 120 0.04 0.83 0.56 144 0.08 0.89 0.54 168 0.14 0.95 0.52 192 0.18 0.99 0.52 216 0.24 1.04 0.50 240 0.28 1.09 0.51 264 0.34 1.14 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.50 3.36 3.37 48 -0.82 -0.71 3.63 3.67 72 -0.94 -0.81 4.01 4.05 96 -0.79 4.37 120 -0.75 4.65 144 -0.77 4.93 168 -0.76 5.09 192 -0.63 5.34 216 -0.50 5.63 240 -0.54 5.88 264 -0.50 5.93 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -0.85 3.97 3.98 48 -1.19 -1.08 4.51 4.53 72 -1.34 -1.25 4.93 5.02 96 -1.33 5.38 120 -1.36 5.77 144 -1.42 6.09 168 -1.52 6.39 192 -1.59 6.83 216 -1.55 7.29 240 -1.44 7.42 264 -1.56 7.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.00 -0.91 5.00 4.89 48 -1.30 -1.24 6.00 5.94 72 -1.35 -1.41 6.71 6.83 96 -1.46 7.48 120 -1.42 8.12 144 -1.42 8.64 168 -1.30 9.18 192 -1.16 9.57 216 -0.80 9.99 240 -0.44 10.56 264 -0.39 11.02 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.30 -2.88 9.41 8.83 0.98 0.97 48 -1.42 -2.40 12.22 11.76 0.98 0.97 72 -0.30 -1.30 17.04 16.46 0.96 0.96 96 -0.28 22.21 0.93 120 -0.09 28.81 0.88 144 -0.64 35.99 0.82 168 0.35 42.19 0.75 192 0.59 47.37 0.70 216 1.11 53.00 0.63 240 1.65 56.09 0.58 264 0.64 59.08 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 337 12 UTC = 333 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.13 -5.14 11.51 11.52 0.98 0.98 48 -3.96 -4.41 15.08 15.29 0.98 0.98 72 -2.32 -2.87 21.39 21.43 0.96 0.96 96 -1.84 29.45 0.93 120 -1.40 39.24 0.89 144 -1.90 49.75 0.84 168 -0.43 58.31 0.78 192 0.12 65.87 0.73 216 1.26 75.02 0.66 240 2.66 81.82 0.60 264 1.18 86.67 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 352 12 UTC = 346 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.09 -6.29 16.67 16.60 0.98 0.98 48 -5.87 -6.57 22.42 22.81 0.98 0.98 72 -4.98 -5.81 31.82 32.50 0.96 0.96 96 -5.89 44.23 0.94 120 -6.48 59.39 0.90 144 -8.15 74.21 0.85 168 -7.34 87.24 0.79 192 -6.87 98.87 0.75 216 -5.65 111.60 0.69 240 -3.94 122.30 0.65 264 -5.57 131.25 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 353 12 UTC = 347 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.35 1.48 1.50 0.90 0.90 48 -0.29 -0.30 1.65 1.66 0.92 0.92 72 -0.22 -0.24 1.92 1.89 0.91 0.91 96 -0.18 2.19 0.89 120 -0.13 2.56 0.85 144 -0.10 2.95 0.79 168 -0.03 3.40 0.74 192 0.03 3.77 0.69 216 0.07 4.12 0.65 240 0.15 4.49 0.59 264 0.13 4.73 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 374 12 UTC = 369 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.93 48 0.00 -0.02 1.10 1.08 0.94 0.94 72 -0.01 -0.03 1.39 1.38 0.92 0.92 96 -0.06 1.72 0.89 120 -0.08 2.11 0.84 144 -0.13 2.47 0.79 168 -0.11 2.80 0.75 192 -0.11 3.09 0.71 216 -0.10 3.38 0.65 240 -0.06 3.64 0.61 264 -0.11 3.87 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 395 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.13 1.08 1.05 0.91 0.91 48 0.06 0.06 1.33 1.31 0.91 0.91 72 0.01 0.01 1.67 1.62 0.88 0.89 96 -0.03 2.00 0.85 120 -0.08 2.34 0.80 144 -0.10 2.67 0.74 168 -0.18 2.93 0.69 192 -0.16 3.17 0.64 216 -0.13 3.38 0.60 240 -0.08 3.48 0.58 264 0.01 3.62 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.71 3.64 3.57 48 -0.91 -0.77 4.12 4.05 72 -0.97 -0.85 4.87 4.77 96 -0.86 5.55 120 -0.91 6.35 144 -0.90 7.30 168 -0.79 8.03 192 -0.70 8.49 216 -0.66 8.97 240 -0.54 9.20 264 -0.32 9.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 362 12 UTC = 358 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.67 3.80 3.83 48 -0.92 -0.86 4.75 4.73 72 -1.05 -1.00 6.04 6.00 96 -1.09 7.29 120 -1.09 8.72 144 -1.11 10.09 168 -1.07 11.21 192 -1.11 12.11 216 -0.98 12.84 240 -0.86 13.54 264 -0.64 14.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 394 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.73 5.17 5.23 48 -0.93 -0.96 6.80 6.84 72 -1.07 -1.16 8.91 8.98 96 -1.26 11.17 120 -1.25 13.66 144 -1.34 15.90 168 -1.35 17.81 192 -1.49 19.44 216 -1.52 20.65 240 -1.29 21.86 264 -1.16 22.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 393 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.74 8.43 9.46 0.97 0.97 48 -0.72 -0.85 11.73 12.68 0.97 0.97 72 -1.07 -1.52 16.51 17.48 0.96 0.95 96 -3.15 23.16 0.92 120 -4.33 33.80 0.87 144 -6.91 40.29 0.81 168 -10.22 47.71 0.76 192 -11.70 56.25 0.67 216 -9.75 57.75 0.66 240 -11.67 62.40 0.67 264 -9.22 63.38 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.92 -7.13 12.26 13.54 0.97 0.98 48 -6.06 -7.21 17.36 18.57 0.97 0.97 72 -6.21 -7.70 24.60 25.21 0.95 0.96 96 -9.86 34.96 0.93 120 -9.93 45.87 0.88 144 -11.66 57.73 0.81 168 -17.23 69.91 0.76 192 -20.64 83.39 0.67 216 -18.48 86.24 0.67 240 -23.46 92.56 0.64 264 -21.83 93.62 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.14 -8.34 15.34 17.18 0.98 0.98 48 -4.99 -9.23 21.96 23.82 0.98 0.98 72 -5.70 -10.18 32.58 33.39 0.96 0.97 96 -13.37 47.94 0.94 120 -13.65 61.48 0.91 144 -14.81 79.00 0.84 168 -21.63 96.23 0.78 192 -27.13 114.00 0.70 216 -25.79 123.87 0.68 240 -33.50 130.83 0.66 264 -32.84 134.43 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.64 1.71 1.78 0.86 0.89 48 -0.49 -0.52 1.82 1.92 0.90 0.91 72 -0.37 -0.44 2.02 2.14 0.90 0.91 96 -0.44 2.42 0.89 120 -0.29 2.78 0.86 144 -0.24 3.31 0.81 168 -0.36 3.95 0.74 192 -0.42 4.48 0.67 216 -0.58 5.11 0.56 240 -0.84 4.96 0.61 264 -0.73 5.08 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.09 0.95 1.00 0.91 0.90 48 -0.07 -0.09 1.18 1.20 0.92 0.92 72 -0.06 -0.05 1.55 1.45 0.88 0.91 96 -0.08 1.83 0.88 120 -0.02 2.28 0.83 144 0.01 2.64 0.76 168 -0.09 3.01 0.73 192 -0.32 3.43 0.64 216 -0.22 3.70 0.62 240 -0.47 3.88 0.56 264 -0.58 3.92 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.16 1.17 1.18 0.91 0.91 48 0.24 0.10 1.38 1.44 0.92 0.91 72 0.19 0.00 1.66 1.69 0.89 0.89 96 -0.03 1.98 0.86 120 -0.11 2.38 0.82 144 -0.17 2.61 0.77 168 -0.18 2.97 0.74 192 -0.16 3.48 0.67 216 -0.24 3.51 0.63 240 -0.20 3.85 0.61 264 -0.12 3.99 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.60 4.43 4.45 48 -0.56 -0.75 4.82 4.92 72 -0.69 -0.88 5.59 5.72 96 -0.98 6.55 120 -0.84 7.61 144 -0.79 8.43 168 -0.84 9.50 192 -0.73 10.55 216 -0.57 11.43 240 -0.68 11.30 264 -1.00 11.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.70 4.65 4.62 48 -0.88 -0.78 5.61 5.53 72 -0.93 -0.76 7.02 6.87 96 -0.85 8.17 120 -0.70 9.79 144 -0.67 11.02 168 -0.25 13.37 192 -0.53 14.77 216 -0.35 15.82 240 -0.24 15.99 264 -0.07 16.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.66 5.56 5.79 48 -0.98 -0.73 6.84 7.14 72 -1.14 -0.81 8.78 8.71 96 -0.81 10.47 120 -0.97 13.04 144 -1.11 15.17 168 -0.44 18.13 192 -0.85 20.90 216 -1.20 23.07 240 -1.12 23.65 264 -0.71 24.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 42 ---------------------------------------------------------