VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY OCTOBER 2014 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.05 0.82 0.84 0.99 0.99 15.8 16.3 48 0.11 0.08 1.45 1.47 0.98 0.98 24.4 25.2 72 0.17 0.11 2.21 2.19 0.96 0.96 32.5 33.4 96 0.16 3.19 0.92 41.8 120 0.19 4.34 0.85 50.7 144 0.20 5.48 0.75 58.7 168 0.21 6.87 0.61 66.9 192 0.18 8.20 0.43 74.5 216 0.20 8.81 0.35 77.3 240 0.22 9.37 0.28 80.0 264 0.26 9.75 0.25 82.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.52 0.42 6.27 6.42 1.00 1.00 10.1 10.1 48 0.97 0.72 12.92 13.03 0.99 0.99 18.1 18.2 72 1.32 0.94 21.45 21.42 0.97 0.97 26.4 26.5 96 1.35 32.42 0.93 35.0 120 1.63 44.93 0.86 43.3 144 1.82 57.70 0.77 50.9 168 1.91 72.19 0.64 58.3 192 1.59 86.31 0.49 65.1 216 1.57 95.02 0.39 69.0 240 1.91 100.97 0.33 71.3 264 3.13 106.04 0.28 73.6 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.64 0.70 8.93 8.96 1.00 1.00 8.7 8.7 48 0.50 0.35 18.19 18.30 0.99 0.99 15.3 15.5 72 -0.05 -0.21 29.69 29.81 0.97 0.97 22.5 22.6 96 -0.34 44.73 0.93 30.3 120 -0.36 62.36 0.87 37.9 144 -0.10 80.92 0.78 45.2 168 0.54 101.19 0.66 52.3 192 0.41 121.40 0.52 59.1 216 0.58 134.78 0.41 62.7 240 0.92 144.85 0.33 65.5 264 2.94 152.42 0.28 67.8 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 0.45 0.45 0.99 0.99 48 0.01 0.01 0.81 0.82 0.97 0.97 72 -0.02 -0.01 1.23 1.23 0.94 0.94 96 -0.04 1.71 0.88 120 -0.05 2.20 0.81 144 -0.07 2.70 0.71 168 -0.07 3.24 0.59 192 -0.07 3.72 0.46 216 -0.08 4.04 0.36 240 -0.08 4.28 0.30 264 -0.06 4.50 0.23 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.01 0.60 0.59 0.98 0.99 48 -0.05 -0.04 1.02 1.01 0.95 0.95 72 -0.08 -0.07 1.46 1.46 0.90 0.90 96 -0.07 1.92 0.83 120 -0.05 2.38 0.74 144 -0.02 2.75 0.66 168 0.04 3.20 0.53 192 0.09 3.58 0.42 216 0.12 3.79 0.34 240 0.14 3.92 0.29 264 0.19 4.05 0.24 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.12 2.00 2.01 48 -0.25 -0.24 3.57 3.59 72 -0.36 -0.34 5.20 5.22 96 -0.40 6.98 120 -0.42 8.74 144 -0.40 10.42 168 -0.34 12.20 192 -0.29 13.81 216 -0.26 14.72 240 -0.21 15.34 264 -0.26 15.86 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.16 3.20 3.17 48 -0.39 -0.38 5.39 5.38 72 -0.51 -0.48 7.73 7.66 96 -0.50 10.25 120 -0.50 12.92 144 -0.44 15.70 168 -0.32 18.66 192 -0.22 21.25 216 -0.22 22.73 240 -0.25 23.91 264 -0.29 24.83 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.24 3.11 3.01 0.97 0.98 26.5 26.5 48 -0.35 -0.28 4.42 4.23 0.95 0.95 34.9 34.4 72 -0.62 -0.42 5.42 5.16 0.92 0.93 39.9 39.6 96 -0.65 6.05 0.90 43.7 120 -1.05 6.91 0.88 47.3 144 -1.20 7.91 0.84 50.6 168 -1.13 8.72 0.81 53.6 192 -1.07 9.88 0.75 56.2 216 -1.10 10.82 0.72 58.4 240 -1.48 11.81 0.68 59.7 264 -1.49 12.58 0.64 61.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.25 1.10 4.54 4.36 0.98 0.98 22.3 22.3 48 0.12 -0.23 6.60 6.33 0.94 0.95 30.8 30.5 72 -1.00 -1.29 8.48 8.24 0.91 0.91 36.7 36.4 96 -2.16 10.02 0.86 41.2 120 -3.07 11.88 0.81 45.1 144 -3.65 14.03 0.74 48.8 168 -3.93 15.29 0.69 51.9 192 -4.25 17.04 0.62 55.0 216 -4.78 18.90 0.54 58.0 240 -5.22 20.72 0.47 60.5 264 -4.79 22.08 0.41 62.8 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.02 0.42 0.44 0.96 0.96 48 0.01 0.02 0.68 0.69 0.89 0.91 72 0.06 0.06 0.84 0.85 0.83 0.87 96 0.10 0.97 0.83 120 0.13 1.08 0.79 144 0.16 1.18 0.75 168 0.17 1.27 0.71 192 0.17 1.39 0.65 216 0.16 1.50 0.60 240 0.15 1.59 0.54 264 0.15 1.64 0.51 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.34 0.33 0.91 0.91 48 -0.05 -0.07 0.48 0.46 0.82 0.82 72 -0.08 -0.10 0.58 0.56 0.74 0.73 96 -0.12 0.63 0.67 120 -0.15 0.69 0.60 144 -0.16 0.74 0.55 168 -0.15 0.77 0.50 192 -0.16 0.81 0.45 216 -0.18 0.87 0.38 240 -0.19 0.92 0.32 264 -0.18 0.97 0.25 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.10 1.42 1.41 48 -0.23 -0.21 2.10 2.08 72 -0.31 -0.28 2.57 2.54 96 -0.30 2.89 120 -0.31 3.23 144 -0.33 3.57 168 -0.36 3.87 192 -0.30 4.15 216 -0.24 4.43 240 -0.20 4.64 264 -0.16 4.81 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.40 2.93 2.91 48 -0.67 -0.70 4.37 4.39 72 -0.85 -0.87 5.43 5.45 96 -0.92 6.30 120 -0.95 7.02 144 -0.97 7.71 168 -0.97 8.32 192 -0.98 8.94 216 -0.96 9.50 240 -0.91 10.02 264 -0.86 10.56 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.02 0.93 0.89 1.00 1.00 11.8 11.7 48 -0.07 -0.05 1.79 1.75 0.98 0.98 20.7 20.5 72 -0.09 -0.07 2.83 2.78 0.96 0.96 29.2 29.0 96 -0.10 4.09 0.90 37.4 120 -0.09 5.36 0.84 44.4 144 -0.09 6.73 0.75 50.9 168 -0.10 8.00 0.65 56.5 192 -0.06 8.98 0.56 60.3 216 -0.07 9.97 0.46 64.5 240 -0.03 10.73 0.38 67.7 264 -0.01 11.44 0.30 69.7 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.11 1.08 8.14 7.85 1.00 1.00 9.5 9.3 48 1.61 1.59 16.69 16.46 0.99 0.99 17.4 17.2 72 2.04 2.09 27.49 27.08 0.96 0.97 25.2 24.9 96 2.45 40.67 0.92 32.8 120 2.94 54.90 0.86 39.9 144 3.06 69.64 0.77 46.4 168 3.02 83.69 0.67 52.0 192 3.35 95.61 0.58 55.9 216 3.22 107.06 0.47 60.0 240 3.26 117.51 0.36 63.7 264 2.79 126.71 0.26 66.7 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.78 0.82 10.14 9.85 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.6 48 0.97 0.95 20.51 20.14 0.99 0.99 13.6 13.5 72 1.01 1.12 34.12 33.56 0.97 0.97 20.1 19.8 96 1.00 50.58 0.93 26.7 120 0.71 69.24 0.87 33.2 144 0.18 88.75 0.78 39.5 168 -0.79 106.94 0.69 44.9 192 -1.65 122.85 0.59 48.9 216 -2.85 137.36 0.48 52.6 240 -2.81 153.52 0.36 56.7 264 -2.31 167.31 0.25 60.0 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.50 0.49 0.99 0.99 48 0.03 0.03 0.94 0.93 0.97 0.97 72 0.04 0.04 1.44 1.42 0.92 0.93 96 0.05 1.95 0.86 120 0.04 2.46 0.78 144 0.02 2.92 0.68 168 0.00 3.36 0.57 192 -0.04 3.69 0.49 216 -0.08 3.99 0.40 240 -0.11 4.38 0.28 264 -0.12 4.77 0.17 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.02 0.58 0.57 0.99 0.99 48 -0.06 -0.06 1.01 1.01 0.96 0.96 72 -0.10 -0.10 1.47 1.46 0.92 0.92 96 -0.16 1.96 0.85 120 -0.21 2.41 0.77 144 -0.23 2.82 0.69 168 -0.28 3.22 0.59 192 -0.32 3.47 0.52 216 -0.34 3.79 0.44 240 -0.33 4.07 0.35 264 -0.30 4.31 0.28 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.06 2.31 2.27 48 -0.10 -0.09 4.28 4.25 72 -0.12 -0.12 6.24 6.19 96 -0.17 8.22 120 -0.24 10.12 144 -0.28 11.98 168 -0.34 13.68 192 -0.38 14.94 216 -0.46 16.16 240 -0.54 17.26 264 -0.49 18.28 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.09 3.13 3.09 48 -0.20 -0.21 5.45 5.37 72 -0.30 -0.31 7.97 7.81 96 -0.43 10.54 120 -0.55 13.28 144 -0.57 16.05 168 -0.66 18.55 192 -0.69 20.52 216 -0.70 22.20 240 -0.62 24.29 264 -0.55 26.04 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.03 -1.70 7.97 8.07 0.98 0.98 48 -1.05 -0.56 11.78 11.57 0.98 0.98 72 1.43 1.58 16.35 15.85 0.97 0.97 96 3.93 21.83 0.95 120 4.56 28.95 0.91 144 6.97 37.32 0.85 168 9.50 47.42 0.80 192 10.96 58.40 0.71 216 14.42 60.22 0.71 240 16.09 65.43 0.61 264 14.20 70.94 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.03 -6.73 11.50 11.80 0.99 0.99 48 -5.13 -5.64 16.35 16.19 0.99 0.99 72 -2.58 -2.96 23.10 23.21 0.97 0.98 96 0.02 33.32 0.95 120 0.91 44.24 0.92 144 2.98 56.37 0.87 168 4.44 73.00 0.82 192 5.27 90.35 0.76 216 8.35 96.90 0.71 240 8.43 103.69 0.64 264 6.33 116.06 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.14 -8.55 15.66 15.56 0.99 0.99 48 -6.99 -8.73 22.75 23.15 0.99 0.99 72 -5.76 -6.49 34.34 33.57 0.98 0.98 96 -3.22 49.07 0.95 120 -2.53 66.32 0.93 144 -0.41 83.37 0.88 168 0.83 106.24 0.84 192 -0.48 131.00 0.79 216 2.20 143.84 0.73 240 2.13 159.54 0.65 264 1.62 179.36 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.68 1.34 1.74 0.93 0.93 48 -0.33 -0.60 1.52 1.86 0.95 0.94 72 -0.24 -0.53 1.83 2.13 0.94 0.93 96 -0.46 2.53 0.91 120 -0.42 3.02 0.88 144 -0.38 3.40 0.86 168 -0.45 4.05 0.80 192 -0.52 4.94 0.72 216 -0.55 5.42 0.68 240 -0.55 5.49 0.64 264 -0.36 5.72 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.11 0.90 0.93 0.95 0.94 48 -0.08 -0.15 1.12 1.19 0.95 0.95 72 -0.10 -0.15 1.47 1.50 0.94 0.94 96 -0.10 1.99 0.90 120 -0.10 2.39 0.88 144 -0.16 2.79 0.84 168 -0.22 3.26 0.78 192 -0.26 3.83 0.73 216 -0.27 4.16 0.68 240 -0.37 4.50 0.61 264 -0.38 4.99 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 95 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.19 1.07 1.04 0.94 0.94 48 0.25 0.15 1.38 1.33 0.93 0.93 72 0.17 0.07 1.67 1.65 0.91 0.91 96 0.00 2.06 0.86 120 0.00 2.37 0.82 144 0.05 2.70 0.78 168 0.08 3.16 0.69 192 0.01 3.66 0.60 216 -0.05 3.86 0.55 240 0.04 3.97 0.54 264 0.28 4.11 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 95 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.98 -0.96 3.74 3.99 48 -1.10 -1.08 4.33 4.53 72 -1.17 -1.10 5.04 5.23 96 -1.21 5.97 120 -1.26 7.04 144 -1.38 8.01 168 -1.53 9.18 192 -1.53 10.53 216 -1.42 11.06 240 -1.40 11.32 264 -1.37 12.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.81 4.12 4.19 48 -1.06 -1.04 5.23 5.26 72 -1.22 -1.15 6.54 6.65 96 -1.26 8.33 120 -1.36 10.00 144 -1.42 11.50 168 -1.40 13.47 192 -1.60 15.79 216 -1.86 16.88 240 -1.84 17.69 264 -1.73 18.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.69 5.72 5.56 48 -0.80 -1.02 7.51 7.35 72 -0.97 -1.15 9.75 9.63 96 -1.28 12.50 120 -1.43 15.60 144 -1.47 18.02 168 -1.46 21.00 192 -1.55 24.21 216 -1.70 26.31 240 -1.43 28.50 264 -1.29 30.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.79 -5.08 9.21 9.64 0.98 0.97 48 -4.08 -6.74 11.42 12.61 0.98 0.98 72 -2.55 -5.71 15.11 16.42 0.97 0.97 96 -3.22 21.46 0.96 120 -0.27 29.38 0.92 144 2.53 39.78 0.86 168 6.03 48.78 0.78 192 4.01 60.66 0.68 216 8.17 69.59 0.63 240 15.11 69.83 0.69 264 17.99 73.67 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.88 -7.77 11.58 12.00 0.98 0.98 48 -7.22 -9.39 14.95 15.58 0.98 0.98 72 -5.83 -8.34 19.81 21.62 0.97 0.97 96 -5.70 29.65 0.96 120 -2.20 42.01 0.92 144 -0.59 59.26 0.86 168 4.37 74.09 0.78 192 6.37 88.65 0.72 216 11.18 103.71 0.65 240 17.20 108.38 0.65 264 17.59 112.33 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.17 -9.57 16.05 16.04 0.98 0.98 48 -8.28 -10.86 22.58 22.59 0.98 0.98 72 -7.87 -10.17 30.67 32.79 0.97 0.97 96 -8.87 45.34 0.94 120 -4.19 64.55 0.91 144 -1.98 88.68 0.83 168 6.64 113.80 0.76 192 17.08 136.33 0.68 216 22.42 153.69 0.63 240 27.43 162.01 0.61 264 28.33 167.86 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.02 1.16 1.17 0.88 0.86 48 -0.17 -0.04 1.32 1.35 0.89 0.89 72 -0.15 -0.04 1.50 1.58 0.89 0.88 96 -0.03 1.79 0.86 120 0.02 2.22 0.81 144 0.02 2.82 0.74 168 0.07 3.46 0.66 192 0.26 3.84 0.61 216 0.20 4.18 0.61 240 0.05 4.58 0.53 264 -0.30 4.68 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.05 0.79 0.74 0.93 0.92 48 0.00 -0.02 1.03 0.92 0.92 0.93 72 -0.01 0.01 1.30 1.27 0.90 0.91 96 0.02 1.61 0.88 120 0.02 2.06 0.85 144 -0.01 2.57 0.78 168 0.17 3.11 0.71 192 0.58 3.59 0.62 216 0.68 3.94 0.56 240 0.60 4.13 0.50 264 0.54 4.30 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.16 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.91 48 0.10 0.08 1.13 1.14 0.87 0.88 72 0.02 0.00 1.41 1.41 0.84 0.84 96 -0.12 1.79 0.81 120 -0.09 2.10 0.77 144 -0.04 2.42 0.72 168 0.02 2.74 0.65 192 0.33 2.96 0.62 216 0.39 3.24 0.51 240 0.40 3.28 0.52 264 0.61 3.49 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.48 3.78 3.63 48 -0.64 -0.56 4.21 4.08 72 -0.62 -0.58 4.75 4.58 96 -0.74 5.41 120 -0.88 6.29 144 -0.93 7.45 168 -0.86 8.45 192 -0.29 9.71 216 -0.26 10.68 240 -0.45 10.77 264 -0.58 10.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.52 3.77 3.71 48 -0.56 -0.58 4.51 4.39 72 -0.50 -0.65 5.50 5.49 96 -0.84 7.05 120 -0.84 8.76 144 -0.83 10.71 168 -0.32 12.62 192 0.17 14.95 216 0.59 16.48 240 0.42 17.29 264 0.28 17.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.49 5.19 4.90 48 -0.57 -0.72 6.80 6.42 72 -0.61 -0.85 8.73 8.81 96 -1.00 11.53 120 -0.76 14.40 144 -0.36 17.89 168 0.60 21.22 192 0.98 25.29 216 1.42 27.05 240 0.68 28.08 264 0.44 28.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.77 0.57 12.00 8.80 0.97 0.97 48 3.46 1.69 15.04 11.85 0.97 0.97 72 3.49 2.03 19.73 16.26 0.95 0.95 96 1.55 22.96 0.92 120 0.85 29.27 0.85 144 2.13 34.15 0.77 168 5.65 39.63 0.69 192 9.91 45.27 0.63 216 13.11 49.65 0.62 240 12.41 53.56 0.55 264 14.76 55.24 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 97 12 UTC = 97 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.32 0.02 11.98 11.44 0.98 0.98 48 0.83 1.54 16.00 15.14 0.97 0.98 72 0.87 1.84 22.79 21.22 0.95 0.96 96 1.88 29.35 0.93 120 1.51 37.92 0.89 144 3.55 47.04 0.84 168 5.34 55.67 0.79 192 8.18 62.64 0.71 216 12.87 69.46 0.68 240 14.17 74.89 0.61 264 20.07 78.55 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 108 12 UTC = 109 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.54 -2.13 18.64 17.73 0.97 0.98 48 -3.58 -1.79 23.45 23.11 0.97 0.98 72 -4.62 -1.68 30.67 31.00 0.97 0.97 96 -2.21 40.01 0.95 120 -1.79 52.54 0.91 144 -1.14 66.96 0.87 168 -0.89 82.33 0.81 192 -1.49 93.09 0.75 216 6.81 102.83 0.73 240 11.32 111.64 0.68 264 22.11 118.45 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 107 12 UTC = 107 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.53 1.83 1.67 0.90 0.91 48 -0.44 -0.45 1.99 1.85 0.92 0.93 72 -0.39 -0.38 2.22 2.07 0.91 0.91 96 -0.32 2.38 0.89 120 -0.26 2.86 0.85 144 -0.13 3.32 0.82 168 -0.07 3.87 0.75 192 -0.10 4.30 0.69 216 -0.02 4.63 0.63 240 0.04 5.22 0.57 264 0.16 5.46 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 127 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.05 1.03 1.01 0.94 0.94 48 -0.05 -0.06 1.25 1.23 0.94 0.95 72 -0.09 -0.09 1.55 1.54 0.92 0.93 96 -0.11 1.88 0.90 120 -0.12 2.32 0.86 144 -0.19 2.77 0.83 168 -0.28 3.24 0.76 192 -0.35 3.62 0.70 216 -0.20 3.81 0.69 240 -0.06 4.17 0.64 264 0.13 4.40 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 143 12 UTC = 143 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.15 1.14 1.13 0.92 0.92 48 -0.06 0.07 1.45 1.42 0.92 0.93 72 -0.12 0.06 1.78 1.76 0.90 0.90 96 0.11 2.11 0.86 120 0.19 2.52 0.81 144 0.16 2.82 0.78 168 0.14 3.18 0.70 192 0.12 3.41 0.65 216 0.13 3.65 0.62 240 0.16 3.92 0.59 264 0.28 4.08 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.94 -0.87 3.90 3.81 48 -1.12 -1.02 4.42 4.34 72 -1.12 -1.08 5.13 4.98 96 -1.02 5.81 120 -0.96 6.65 144 -1.04 7.25 168 -1.30 7.89 192 -1.45 8.47 216 -1.24 8.93 240 -1.11 9.25 264 -1.00 9.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 123 12 UTC = 125 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.63 4.15 4.22 48 -0.91 -0.96 5.18 5.29 72 -0.94 -0.96 6.42 6.44 96 -0.94 7.70 120 -0.90 9.00 144 -0.89 10.21 168 -1.13 11.21 192 -1.37 12.16 216 -1.42 12.93 240 -1.40 13.57 264 -1.50 14.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.53 5.13 5.00 48 -0.86 -0.93 6.60 6.56 72 -0.96 -1.05 8.07 8.29 96 -1.04 9.92 120 -1.11 12.05 144 -1.16 14.35 168 -1.13 16.16 192 -1.22 17.77 216 -1.34 19.33 240 -1.32 20.32 264 -1.20 21.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.17 -6.13 8.84 12.58 0.98 0.98 48 -4.48 -5.71 10.06 14.33 0.98 0.97 72 -5.78 -5.42 13.30 18.10 0.96 0.95 96 -7.09 22.88 0.92 120 -8.47 28.76 0.89 144 -7.55 33.30 0.86 168 -8.96 39.44 0.82 192 -10.88 47.54 0.74 216 -10.53 48.33 0.73 240 -6.86 57.21 0.66 264 -1.87 62.12 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.58 -12.63 12.49 18.00 0.98 0.99 48 -7.47 -12.26 14.46 20.78 0.98 0.98 72 -8.30 -11.52 18.26 26.18 0.97 0.96 96 -11.36 33.05 0.94 120 -12.43 42.46 0.90 144 -12.40 49.46 0.86 168 -14.34 60.13 0.85 192 -19.21 69.05 0.80 216 -19.68 77.51 0.75 240 -15.13 85.72 0.69 264 -11.33 87.31 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.05 -12.03 12.91 18.64 0.98 0.99 48 -6.80 -13.02 16.39 23.31 0.98 0.98 72 -8.08 -12.22 21.26 30.15 0.97 0.96 96 -10.89 37.87 0.95 120 -12.24 49.41 0.91 144 -12.35 57.24 0.86 168 -14.34 73.98 0.82 192 -19.46 82.19 0.81 216 -21.04 92.30 0.77 240 -15.67 105.55 0.72 264 -13.68 105.65 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.61 1.34 1.41 0.88 0.89 48 -0.35 -0.50 1.44 1.48 0.92 0.92 72 -0.27 -0.45 1.56 1.62 0.93 0.92 96 -0.27 1.77 0.92 120 -0.33 2.03 0.88 144 -0.57 2.49 0.82 168 -0.34 2.87 0.79 192 -0.46 3.57 0.73 216 -0.59 3.65 0.74 240 -0.50 4.08 0.66 264 -0.43 4.50 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 -0.05 0.86 0.90 0.92 0.94 48 0.04 -0.09 0.96 1.05 0.92 0.93 72 0.05 -0.07 1.11 1.36 0.89 0.89 96 0.05 1.57 0.90 120 0.02 1.85 0.85 144 0.04 2.14 0.78 168 0.02 2.57 0.75 192 -0.15 2.92 0.72 216 -0.25 3.28 0.64 240 -0.20 3.36 0.63 264 -0.31 3.27 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.25 0.98 1.18 0.91 0.92 48 0.33 0.19 1.17 1.28 0.92 0.90 72 0.27 0.15 1.32 1.62 0.90 0.85 96 0.06 1.92 0.88 120 0.13 2.25 0.82 144 0.15 2.58 0.79 168 0.29 2.99 0.77 192 0.35 3.30 0.73 216 0.49 3.87 0.53 240 0.55 3.93 0.59 264 0.50 4.09 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.45 3.98 4.16 48 -0.64 -0.53 4.41 4.47 72 -0.61 -0.59 4.77 5.09 96 -0.43 5.82 120 -0.40 6.30 144 -0.69 6.98 168 -0.61 7.71 192 -0.58 8.95 216 -0.72 9.44 240 -1.04 9.50 264 -1.15 10.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 17 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.47 4.14 4.60 48 -0.54 -0.55 4.72 5.53 72 -0.45 -0.61 5.43 6.33 96 -0.58 7.25 120 -0.73 8.41 144 -0.88 9.49 168 -0.89 11.19 192 -0.87 12.66 216 -0.95 13.10 240 -1.38 13.29 264 -1.38 15.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 18 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.60 4.90 5.49 48 -0.80 -0.72 5.86 6.65 72 -0.83 -0.70 7.15 7.66 96 -0.69 9.76 120 -0.65 11.48 144 -1.01 13.04 168 -0.83 15.44 192 -1.04 17.14 216 -0.56 18.64 240 -0.74 19.27 264 -0.36 21.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 17 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.18 -5.03 9.93 11.15 0.70 0.69 48 -4.03 -4.63 10.25 11.47 0.80 0.80 72 -4.63 -5.23 10.92 12.05 0.80 0.81 96 -5.93 12.59 0.77 120 -6.22 12.97 0.78 144 -5.89 13.43 0.77 168 -5.98 13.97 0.75 192 -6.23 14.76 0.70 216 -6.51 15.59 0.68 240 -7.12 16.69 0.64 264 -7.27 17.72 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.64 -11.32 14.71 15.83 0.62 0.61 48 -10.78 -11.39 14.98 16.10 0.77 0.75 72 -11.56 -12.24 15.98 16.97 0.78 0.76 96 -13.04 17.74 0.74 120 -13.37 18.45 0.72 144 -13.12 18.73 0.72 168 -13.27 19.07 0.71 192 -13.42 19.67 0.66 216 -13.69 20.04 0.65 240 -14.32 21.24 0.60 264 -14.32 21.43 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.26 -10.82 15.48 16.82 0.63 0.59 48 -10.32 -12.14 16.89 18.36 0.76 0.73 72 -11.72 -13.46 18.62 19.96 0.76 0.76 96 -14.64 21.46 0.72 120 -15.23 22.72 0.71 144 -15.11 23.49 0.71 168 -15.26 24.07 0.71 192 -15.54 24.94 0.68 216 -16.17 25.77 0.65 240 -17.01 27.20 0.62 264 -16.64 27.77 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.47 1.15 1.10 0.49 0.46 48 -0.51 -0.45 1.16 1.13 0.60 0.58 72 -0.49 -0.42 1.19 1.16 0.63 0.61 96 -0.42 1.20 0.62 120 -0.39 1.26 0.61 144 -0.38 1.33 0.61 168 -0.34 1.37 0.60 192 -0.31 1.43 0.55 216 -0.29 1.50 0.54 240 -0.29 1.58 0.48 264 -0.29 1.60 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.09 0.80 0.76 0.53 0.50 48 0.11 0.06 0.86 0.81 0.60 0.58 72 0.07 0.03 0.91 0.85 0.61 0.59 96 0.01 0.92 0.56 120 -0.02 0.98 0.53 144 -0.03 1.02 0.52 168 -0.04 1.07 0.48 192 -0.04 1.08 0.49 216 -0.05 1.13 0.50 240 -0.06 1.16 0.48 264 -0.04 1.17 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.00 0.66 0.57 0.54 0.60 48 0.03 -0.05 0.73 0.63 0.60 0.67 72 0.03 -0.06 0.79 0.71 0.64 0.67 96 -0.08 0.76 0.67 120 -0.09 0.79 0.65 144 -0.09 0.82 0.63 168 -0.09 0.85 0.62 192 -0.11 0.89 0.62 216 -0.13 0.93 0.58 240 -0.13 0.96 0.58 264 -0.11 1.02 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.48 3.27 3.41 48 -0.76 -0.58 3.55 3.66 72 -0.82 -0.64 3.82 3.93 96 -0.65 4.14 120 -0.61 4.35 144 -0.59 4.55 168 -0.56 4.75 192 -0.49 4.99 216 -0.49 5.33 240 -0.43 5.55 264 -0.42 5.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.77 3.65 3.62 48 -0.97 -0.94 4.09 4.02 72 -1.08 -1.01 4.48 4.38 96 -1.09 4.76 120 -1.06 5.20 144 -0.98 5.60 168 -0.96 5.88 192 -0.97 6.10 216 -1.02 6.48 240 -0.86 6.84 264 -0.77 7.17 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.30 -1.03 4.81 4.59 48 -1.66 -1.28 5.71 5.52 72 -1.89 -1.52 6.62 6.19 96 -1.61 7.02 120 -1.58 7.58 144 -1.53 8.12 168 -1.60 8.53 192 -1.53 8.84 216 -1.27 9.42 240 -1.24 9.81 264 -1.26 10.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.46 -1.97 9.99 9.19 0.98 0.98 48 -0.82 -1.69 13.22 12.62 0.98 0.98 72 0.14 -0.92 17.78 17.11 0.97 0.97 96 -0.10 23.66 0.95 120 0.24 31.75 0.91 144 1.65 40.36 0.86 168 3.64 50.21 0.79 192 4.02 60.70 0.70 216 5.37 66.40 0.67 240 5.64 70.76 0.64 264 5.93 73.63 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 339 12 UTC = 335 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.59 -4.40 12.08 12.11 0.98 0.98 48 -3.91 -4.10 16.54 16.69 0.98 0.98 72 -3.05 -3.37 23.61 23.68 0.97 0.97 96 -2.37 33.69 0.95 120 -2.16 45.30 0.92 144 -0.89 58.47 0.87 168 0.62 73.23 0.81 192 1.17 88.04 0.73 216 2.60 97.56 0.68 240 3.80 103.45 0.65 264 5.41 109.34 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 354 12 UTC = 350 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.31 -6.20 17.36 16.93 0.99 0.99 48 -6.37 -6.82 23.58 23.79 0.99 0.99 72 -6.79 -6.65 33.33 33.73 0.98 0.98 96 -6.39 47.51 0.96 120 -6.07 64.89 0.93 144 -4.84 83.81 0.88 168 -2.85 106.09 0.82 192 -2.64 126.80 0.74 216 -0.03 140.32 0.70 240 2.47 150.25 0.65 264 6.64 160.65 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 354 12 UTC = 350 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.44 1.53 1.58 0.92 0.92 48 -0.34 -0.40 1.70 1.74 0.94 0.94 72 -0.30 -0.36 1.94 1.98 0.93 0.93 96 -0.33 2.31 0.91 120 -0.31 2.78 0.87 144 -0.28 3.31 0.83 168 -0.26 3.91 0.77 192 -0.24 4.56 0.70 216 -0.25 4.99 0.65 240 -0.19 5.33 0.59 264 -0.10 5.52 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 377 12 UTC = 374 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.07 0.93 0.93 0.95 0.95 48 -0.07 -0.08 1.17 1.17 0.95 0.95 72 -0.11 -0.11 1.49 1.51 0.94 0.94 96 -0.12 1.94 0.91 120 -0.15 2.40 0.88 144 -0.20 2.89 0.83 168 -0.21 3.43 0.77 192 -0.19 3.96 0.70 216 -0.14 4.26 0.65 240 -0.08 4.52 0.60 264 0.01 4.77 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 404 12 UTC = 399 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.18 1.09 1.09 0.93 0.94 48 0.12 0.13 1.39 1.37 0.93 0.93 72 0.06 0.09 1.73 1.73 0.91 0.91 96 0.08 2.14 0.87 120 0.12 2.53 0.83 144 0.14 2.87 0.79 168 0.18 3.29 0.72 192 0.22 3.68 0.64 216 0.28 3.92 0.59 240 0.33 4.09 0.57 264 0.49 4.21 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 396 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.75 3.80 3.80 48 -0.95 -0.86 4.33 4.32 72 -0.98 -0.92 5.04 4.97 96 -0.96 5.80 120 -0.97 6.77 144 -1.01 7.74 168 -1.10 8.67 192 -1.05 9.66 216 -0.90 10.25 240 -0.86 10.56 264 -0.80 10.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 365 12 UTC = 363 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.67 4.01 4.07 48 -0.84 -0.88 5.03 5.08 72 -0.89 -0.93 6.30 6.41 96 -0.99 7.96 120 -0.95 9.54 144 -0.97 11.09 168 -0.93 12.70 192 -0.94 14.39 216 -0.93 15.43 240 -0.92 16.11 264 -0.97 16.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 396 12 UTC = 393 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.58 5.15 5.01 48 -0.77 -0.89 6.74 6.62 72 -0.87 -1.00 8.68 8.69 96 -1.05 11.03 120 -1.01 13.79 144 -0.94 16.53 168 -0.72 19.25 192 -0.64 21.84 216 -0.63 23.60 240 -0.73 24.84 264 -0.79 25.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 394 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.04 -0.92 8.36 9.76 0.98 0.97 48 -1.15 -0.64 11.28 12.42 0.97 0.97 72 -2.15 -0.73 15.14 15.88 0.96 0.96 96 -3.92 22.17 0.94 120 -6.35 30.38 0.90 144 -6.43 36.09 0.85 168 -7.31 42.34 0.83 192 -8.30 50.87 0.74 216 -9.40 54.44 0.70 240 -7.92 62.26 0.62 264 -10.07 65.53 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.65 -6.49 11.35 13.57 0.98 0.98 48 -5.05 -5.13 14.75 17.18 0.98 0.98 72 -5.52 -4.07 19.90 23.01 0.97 0.96 96 -5.82 31.84 0.94 120 -7.60 43.34 0.90 144 -7.18 53.46 0.87 168 -7.07 61.72 0.85 192 -9.73 72.59 0.80 216 -12.96 80.47 0.74 240 -11.68 91.48 0.67 264 -15.33 95.93 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.52 -8.72 15.44 16.94 0.98 0.98 48 -6.70 -7.90 20.07 22.15 0.98 0.98 72 -7.53 -7.10 26.20 29.78 0.97 0.97 96 -8.04 40.63 0.95 120 -9.88 55.97 0.92 144 -10.07 68.81 0.89 168 -11.14 79.39 0.86 192 -14.79 93.27 0.83 216 -20.20 102.38 0.79 240 -18.47 122.16 0.70 264 -22.52 129.36 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.69 1.72 1.74 0.88 0.89 48 -0.57 -0.53 1.82 1.81 0.91 0.92 72 -0.48 -0.41 1.97 2.01 0.92 0.93 96 -0.29 2.28 0.91 120 -0.31 2.71 0.88 144 -0.25 3.19 0.84 168 -0.01 3.57 0.80 192 0.08 4.15 0.76 216 0.09 4.60 0.71 240 0.07 4.85 0.67 264 0.02 5.27 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.05 0.89 0.94 0.92 0.93 48 -0.05 -0.02 1.04 1.13 0.93 0.94 72 -0.03 0.00 1.28 1.38 0.91 0.92 96 0.10 1.72 0.89 120 0.09 2.07 0.85 144 0.11 2.48 0.80 168 0.10 2.75 0.76 192 -0.03 3.07 0.73 216 -0.27 3.29 0.68 240 -0.25 3.59 0.63 264 -0.40 3.87 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.11 1.03 1.11 0.92 0.91 48 0.12 0.01 1.26 1.30 0.92 0.90 72 0.06 -0.05 1.46 1.58 0.89 0.86 96 -0.12 1.90 0.85 120 -0.10 2.18 0.81 144 -0.14 2.46 0.78 168 -0.19 2.75 0.74 192 -0.14 2.99 0.72 216 -0.14 3.23 0.63 240 -0.07 3.43 0.62 264 0.01 3.54 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.70 4.45 4.50 48 -0.59 -0.65 4.85 4.78 72 -0.53 -0.66 5.26 5.34 96 -0.49 6.28 120 -0.45 7.05 144 -0.73 7.68 168 -0.72 8.43 192 -0.49 9.40 216 -0.50 10.07 240 -0.85 10.50 264 -0.84 10.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.52 4.40 4.58 48 -0.46 -0.51 5.15 5.51 72 -0.32 -0.34 6.11 6.62 96 -0.21 7.99 120 -0.37 9.53 144 -0.44 10.57 168 -0.57 12.11 192 -0.76 13.18 216 -0.69 14.17 240 -0.85 14.77 264 -0.72 16.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.40 5.43 5.53 48 -0.50 -0.31 6.67 6.98 72 -0.42 -0.16 8.15 8.72 96 -0.06 10.76 120 -0.43 13.01 144 -0.81 15.15 168 -0.55 16.95 192 -0.89 18.30 216 -0.30 20.25 240 0.00 21.82 264 0.17 23.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------