VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY NOVEMBER 2014 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.08 0.91 0.93 0.99 0.99 15.4 16.0 48 0.18 0.15 1.58 1.64 0.98 0.98 23.5 24.6 72 0.24 0.20 2.48 2.53 0.96 0.96 32.1 33.2 96 0.26 3.67 0.90 42.7 120 0.29 4.81 0.84 51.1 144 0.29 6.15 0.74 59.5 168 0.26 7.48 0.62 66.3 192 0.28 8.71 0.49 71.8 216 0.22 9.68 0.37 76.2 240 0.27 10.22 0.30 78.6 264 0.36 10.69 0.22 81.2 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.03 6.73 6.93 1.00 1.00 9.1 9.2 48 0.56 0.13 13.92 14.23 0.99 0.99 16.5 16.6 72 0.53 0.05 23.60 23.85 0.97 0.97 24.4 24.5 96 -0.03 36.20 0.93 32.6 120 -0.04 48.94 0.88 40.3 144 -0.14 63.03 0.80 47.4 168 -0.38 76.95 0.71 53.7 192 -0.05 90.56 0.59 59.0 216 0.09 102.63 0.48 63.4 240 1.06 112.10 0.38 66.7 264 1.71 119.37 0.29 69.7 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 0.26 9.05 9.15 1.00 1.00 7.6 7.5 48 0.07 -0.28 18.53 18.75 0.99 0.99 13.2 13.3 72 -0.87 -1.26 31.25 31.41 0.98 0.98 19.7 19.7 96 -2.12 48.00 0.94 26.8 120 -2.55 65.52 0.89 33.7 144 -2.86 85.02 0.82 40.5 168 -3.13 103.86 0.73 46.5 192 -2.00 122.47 0.63 51.6 216 -1.11 140.90 0.50 56.4 240 0.67 156.29 0.40 60.1 264 1.10 167.68 0.30 62.9 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.47 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 -0.03 -0.03 0.86 0.87 0.98 0.98 72 -0.07 -0.08 1.32 1.33 0.95 0.95 96 -0.12 1.86 0.90 120 -0.15 2.41 0.82 144 -0.16 2.93 0.74 168 -0.19 3.44 0.65 192 -0.17 3.92 0.54 216 -0.14 4.35 0.42 240 -0.13 4.71 0.33 264 -0.15 5.06 0.23 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.02 0.62 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.03 -0.02 1.01 1.02 0.95 0.95 72 -0.05 -0.04 1.44 1.46 0.89 0.89 96 -0.04 1.93 0.81 120 -0.03 2.36 0.71 144 0.00 2.76 0.60 168 0.02 3.12 0.49 192 0.06 3.49 0.38 216 0.10 3.73 0.30 240 0.16 3.91 0.22 264 0.17 4.11 0.14 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.09 2.13 2.16 48 -0.20 -0.20 3.82 3.86 72 -0.31 -0.31 5.64 5.66 96 -0.37 7.58 120 -0.40 9.52 144 -0.45 11.39 168 -0.47 13.01 192 -0.54 14.44 216 -0.58 15.64 240 -0.68 16.57 264 -0.80 17.27 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.13 3.25 3.25 48 -0.31 -0.26 5.40 5.39 72 -0.42 -0.36 7.76 7.83 96 -0.41 10.65 120 -0.45 13.43 144 -0.51 16.49 168 -0.63 18.82 192 -0.67 20.99 216 -0.71 23.00 240 -0.90 24.90 264 -1.04 26.13 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.12 3.41 3.34 0.97 0.97 27.3 27.0 48 -0.39 -0.35 5.00 4.62 0.93 0.95 36.2 35.0 72 -0.83 -0.74 5.94 5.58 0.91 0.93 40.9 40.1 96 -1.08 6.24 0.91 43.5 120 -1.20 7.13 0.87 46.6 144 -1.15 8.08 0.84 49.6 168 -1.26 8.97 0.80 52.2 192 -1.53 10.11 0.76 55.1 216 -1.66 11.02 0.72 57.3 240 -2.08 11.88 0.67 58.8 264 -2.38 12.53 0.65 60.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.41 0.42 4.24 4.21 0.98 0.98 21.1 21.0 48 -1.38 -1.48 6.62 6.62 0.96 0.96 29.0 29.2 72 -3.27 -3.25 8.99 9.17 0.93 0.92 34.7 35.2 96 -4.56 11.39 0.88 39.8 120 -5.01 13.44 0.83 44.3 144 -5.01 15.14 0.78 48.1 168 -4.96 17.02 0.71 51.7 192 -4.92 19.18 0.63 55.6 216 -4.87 21.11 0.54 58.9 240 -5.10 22.86 0.46 61.4 264 -4.91 24.64 0.39 64.2 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 0.45 0.47 0.95 0.96 48 0.02 0.02 0.73 0.73 0.87 0.90 72 0.05 0.05 0.90 0.92 0.80 0.85 96 0.08 1.04 0.81 120 0.10 1.12 0.78 144 0.12 1.21 0.74 168 0.12 1.29 0.70 192 0.13 1.41 0.65 216 0.13 1.51 0.60 240 0.11 1.58 0.57 264 0.11 1.63 0.53 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.36 0.34 0.92 0.92 48 -0.08 -0.08 0.51 0.50 0.84 0.83 72 -0.13 -0.13 0.61 0.61 0.76 0.74 96 -0.17 0.69 0.67 120 -0.18 0.76 0.60 144 -0.19 0.82 0.53 168 -0.18 0.88 0.47 192 -0.17 0.93 0.40 216 -0.16 0.97 0.34 240 -0.14 1.02 0.28 264 -0.13 1.08 0.23 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.13 1.41 1.37 48 -0.26 -0.25 2.08 2.02 72 -0.36 -0.35 2.54 2.48 96 -0.37 2.84 120 -0.36 3.19 144 -0.35 3.50 168 -0.33 3.82 192 -0.30 4.14 216 -0.26 4.43 240 -0.22 4.65 264 -0.22 4.82 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.43 2.98 2.97 48 -0.66 -0.69 4.48 4.49 72 -0.86 -0.86 5.53 5.60 96 -1.00 6.44 120 -1.12 7.23 144 -1.18 7.96 168 -1.23 8.63 192 -1.22 9.43 216 -1.19 10.09 240 -1.14 10.66 264 -1.15 11.19 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.07 0.85 0.83 1.00 1.00 12.3 12.4 48 -0.18 -0.13 1.63 1.54 0.98 0.98 21.1 20.8 72 -0.20 -0.15 2.44 2.40 0.96 0.96 28.7 28.7 96 -0.18 3.47 0.91 36.8 120 -0.20 4.55 0.85 44.0 144 -0.20 5.63 0.77 49.8 168 -0.16 6.68 0.68 54.4 192 -0.14 7.77 0.56 59.2 216 -0.08 8.68 0.45 63.5 240 -0.08 9.20 0.37 65.9 264 -0.08 9.46 0.34 67.2 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.48 1.49 7.38 7.40 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.7 48 2.13 2.30 14.81 14.53 0.99 0.99 17.5 17.4 72 2.77 2.95 23.77 23.56 0.96 0.96 24.8 24.8 96 3.43 35.25 0.92 32.7 120 3.89 47.01 0.86 39.9 144 4.64 58.27 0.78 45.4 168 5.46 69.15 0.70 50.2 192 6.03 81.92 0.59 55.0 216 6.43 93.80 0.46 59.5 240 6.26 101.60 0.37 62.5 264 6.28 106.19 0.31 64.4 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.48 0.52 9.72 9.67 1.00 1.00 8.2 8.3 48 0.28 0.42 19.21 18.97 0.99 0.99 14.4 14.4 72 0.53 0.68 31.34 31.02 0.97 0.97 20.9 20.9 96 1.36 46.04 0.93 27.9 120 2.66 61.58 0.88 34.4 144 4.10 76.96 0.81 40.1 168 5.26 91.01 0.73 45.0 192 5.94 108.12 0.63 49.7 216 6.27 124.74 0.50 54.2 240 5.05 136.95 0.41 57.5 264 4.49 143.59 0.33 59.4 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.48 0.47 0.99 0.99 48 0.03 0.03 0.88 0.88 0.97 0.97 72 0.04 0.03 1.32 1.31 0.92 0.92 96 0.05 1.80 0.86 120 0.09 2.26 0.78 144 0.13 2.66 0.69 168 0.15 3.02 0.61 192 0.14 3.34 0.52 216 0.13 3.67 0.41 240 0.08 3.97 0.31 264 0.05 4.11 0.25 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.06 0.58 0.57 0.99 0.99 48 -0.12 -0.12 1.01 0.99 0.96 0.96 72 -0.15 -0.15 1.43 1.43 0.92 0.92 96 -0.13 1.90 0.85 120 -0.08 2.30 0.79 144 -0.05 2.69 0.71 168 -0.03 3.04 0.62 192 0.00 3.32 0.55 216 0.01 3.57 0.48 240 -0.02 3.82 0.40 264 -0.05 3.98 0.35 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.11 2.16 2.16 48 -0.14 -0.18 3.93 3.90 72 -0.17 -0.19 5.61 5.59 96 -0.16 7.43 120 -0.14 9.22 144 -0.12 10.68 168 -0.09 11.95 192 -0.09 13.24 216 -0.10 14.46 240 -0.18 15.31 264 -0.27 15.81 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.13 3.18 3.21 48 -0.23 -0.26 5.47 5.51 72 -0.26 -0.30 7.82 7.81 96 -0.27 10.44 120 -0.29 13.00 144 -0.29 15.32 168 -0.30 17.29 192 -0.36 19.24 216 -0.42 21.28 240 -0.45 22.86 264 -0.61 23.61 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.37 -2.51 8.14 8.75 0.99 0.99 48 -1.74 -2.18 11.80 12.65 0.99 0.99 72 -0.16 -0.72 16.80 17.78 0.98 0.98 96 -0.15 26.66 0.95 120 0.21 34.96 0.89 144 2.87 44.76 0.82 168 5.82 51.86 0.71 192 4.68 57.87 0.67 216 7.63 70.52 0.58 240 14.20 72.94 0.58 264 10.01 77.23 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.78 -6.08 11.11 11.71 0.99 0.99 48 -5.24 -5.98 16.55 17.24 0.99 0.99 72 -3.01 -4.13 25.32 26.40 0.98 0.98 96 -2.86 39.73 0.96 120 -2.56 53.11 0.92 144 0.09 69.67 0.85 168 2.17 82.42 0.71 192 3.46 95.27 0.69 216 11.22 112.97 0.64 240 24.37 120.78 0.62 264 24.76 132.05 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.19 -8.86 15.32 16.52 0.99 0.99 48 -8.01 -9.47 23.40 24.38 0.99 0.99 72 -6.10 -8.13 36.06 37.14 0.98 0.98 96 -7.17 54.22 0.96 120 -8.26 73.94 0.93 144 -7.94 96.82 0.86 168 -5.84 115.70 0.75 192 -1.61 135.93 0.72 216 10.99 159.55 0.65 240 30.29 177.41 0.60 264 34.68 194.91 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.42 1.62 1.79 0.95 0.95 48 -0.17 -0.31 1.86 2.03 0.96 0.95 72 -0.03 -0.14 2.20 2.44 0.96 0.95 96 -0.06 3.03 0.92 120 0.07 3.75 0.88 144 0.20 4.66 0.80 168 0.21 5.20 0.70 192 0.31 5.66 0.69 216 0.74 6.36 0.66 240 1.22 7.26 0.59 264 1.43 7.90 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.14 0.99 0.97 0.97 0.97 48 -0.12 -0.17 1.27 1.28 0.97 0.97 72 -0.13 -0.22 1.66 1.71 0.96 0.96 96 -0.24 2.29 0.93 120 -0.36 2.94 0.88 144 -0.41 3.58 0.81 168 -0.45 4.13 0.71 192 -0.16 4.66 0.69 216 0.12 5.23 0.63 240 0.53 5.66 0.60 264 0.75 6.12 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.18 1.08 1.06 0.95 0.95 48 0.27 0.18 1.30 1.31 0.95 0.94 72 0.24 0.17 1.61 1.67 0.93 0.92 96 0.16 2.10 0.88 120 0.15 2.50 0.83 144 -0.03 2.98 0.74 168 -0.16 3.36 0.66 192 -0.27 3.65 0.64 216 -0.03 4.09 0.57 240 0.08 4.19 0.59 264 0.12 4.30 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -0.89 4.02 4.18 48 -1.10 -1.02 4.50 4.76 72 -1.10 -1.07 5.28 5.59 96 -1.16 6.86 120 -1.31 8.10 144 -1.59 9.26 168 -1.59 10.22 192 -1.43 11.14 216 -1.34 12.04 240 -1.24 12.49 264 -1.48 12.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.89 4.49 4.49 48 -0.91 -1.10 5.61 5.63 72 -1.01 -1.18 7.01 7.20 96 -1.25 9.19 120 -1.29 11.48 144 -1.59 13.70 168 -1.94 15.11 192 -2.22 16.59 216 -2.34 18.65 240 -2.72 19.78 264 -2.65 20.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.86 5.55 5.55 48 -0.91 -1.29 7.23 7.20 72 -1.08 -1.52 9.29 9.44 96 -1.62 12.26 120 -1.78 15.44 144 -2.34 19.03 168 -2.47 21.65 192 -2.76 23.94 216 -2.42 27.81 240 -3.03 29.80 264 -2.85 31.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.35 -4.77 9.14 9.69 0.98 0.98 48 -4.10 -5.90 12.15 13.24 0.98 0.98 72 -3.56 -5.89 17.27 18.84 0.96 0.96 96 -5.95 26.13 0.92 120 -6.48 37.11 0.82 144 -14.00 49.69 0.77 168 -19.89 61.28 0.70 192 -22.72 76.23 0.64 216 -21.04 85.55 0.65 240 -5.25 92.97 0.57 264 13.57 89.85 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.66 -9.43 12.79 13.52 0.98 0.98 48 -10.37 -11.80 18.02 19.05 0.98 0.98 72 -9.96 -11.64 24.84 25.76 0.96 0.96 96 -11.13 36.68 0.92 120 -8.98 51.65 0.86 144 -15.34 67.86 0.81 168 -24.92 82.79 0.77 192 -28.33 100.23 0.69 216 -33.11 116.62 0.67 240 -18.62 128.79 0.59 264 4.38 129.48 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.30 -12.10 16.48 18.17 0.98 0.98 48 -13.32 -16.09 24.18 26.28 0.98 0.98 72 -14.96 -17.97 34.78 36.51 0.96 0.97 96 -17.09 51.28 0.93 120 -12.09 74.17 0.86 144 -17.88 95.62 0.81 168 -30.94 114.78 0.75 192 -27.56 138.43 0.67 216 -35.71 161.57 0.66 240 -13.43 180.53 0.59 264 10.85 186.73 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.28 1.37 1.25 0.87 0.87 48 -0.51 -0.40 1.54 1.45 0.91 0.89 72 -0.48 -0.41 1.82 1.69 0.89 0.90 96 -0.38 2.16 0.87 120 -0.16 2.67 0.80 144 -0.05 3.28 0.72 168 -0.18 3.53 0.69 192 -0.41 3.73 0.68 216 -0.78 4.06 0.66 240 -1.14 4.69 0.59 264 -0.90 4.81 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.10 0.80 0.80 0.94 0.94 48 -0.13 -0.18 1.03 1.05 0.94 0.93 72 -0.20 -0.21 1.31 1.34 0.92 0.92 96 -0.18 1.71 0.88 120 -0.01 2.30 0.81 144 0.01 2.73 0.76 168 -0.30 3.11 0.66 192 -0.16 3.73 0.59 216 -0.55 4.01 0.60 240 -0.38 4.54 0.56 264 -0.14 4.82 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.26 1.06 1.00 0.92 0.92 48 0.42 0.30 1.35 1.27 0.91 0.92 72 0.38 0.23 1.62 1.60 0.89 0.88 96 0.13 1.93 0.82 120 0.26 2.39 0.73 144 0.34 2.81 0.67 168 0.61 3.00 0.68 192 1.00 3.39 0.65 216 1.30 3.71 0.63 240 1.72 4.00 0.53 264 1.42 4.00 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -0.80 3.92 3.93 48 -0.90 -0.84 4.37 4.38 72 -0.97 -0.87 5.03 5.10 96 -0.74 6.12 120 -0.46 7.17 144 -0.04 8.42 168 0.18 9.14 192 0.59 10.76 216 0.46 11.00 240 0.20 12.19 264 -0.32 11.94 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.67 3.97 4.19 48 -0.62 -0.77 5.11 5.21 72 -0.79 -0.86 6.59 6.68 96 -0.70 8.53 120 -0.58 10.31 144 -0.27 12.29 168 0.25 13.88 192 0.81 15.56 216 1.18 16.89 240 1.52 19.11 264 0.96 19.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.62 5.34 5.34 48 -0.91 -0.50 7.25 7.11 72 -0.75 -0.39 9.30 9.49 96 -0.04 12.48 120 0.12 15.99 144 -0.04 18.81 168 0.56 21.54 192 1.25 24.64 216 2.12 26.58 240 3.97 30.65 264 2.68 31.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.15 0.23 10.89 9.46 0.97 0.97 48 3.45 1.65 13.38 11.72 0.97 0.97 72 4.07 3.05 17.67 15.86 0.94 0.95 96 4.32 22.22 0.92 120 5.66 27.34 0.88 144 7.90 32.78 0.80 168 10.19 39.10 0.76 192 13.87 47.81 0.68 216 14.87 53.54 0.62 240 14.56 59.85 0.54 264 17.37 62.01 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 99 12 UTC = 100 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.12 0.70 12.41 12.58 0.98 0.98 48 3.24 2.81 16.12 16.30 0.98 0.98 72 4.55 4.66 22.40 22.09 0.97 0.96 96 6.73 31.58 0.93 120 8.06 40.79 0.89 144 10.23 50.19 0.83 168 12.32 59.23 0.76 192 15.69 68.52 0.69 216 15.55 79.31 0.60 240 14.67 86.15 0.55 264 14.98 93.28 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 111 12 UTC = 111 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.09 19.24 18.34 0.97 0.97 48 0.85 1.16 23.41 22.69 0.98 0.98 72 1.77 2.56 31.26 30.98 0.96 0.96 96 4.38 44.79 0.93 120 5.76 57.56 0.89 144 8.73 73.46 0.82 168 10.79 86.88 0.75 192 14.63 96.87 0.70 216 15.16 112.03 0.60 240 15.83 122.16 0.55 264 15.63 129.72 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 110 12 UTC = 110 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.35 1.66 1.54 0.91 0.92 48 -0.29 -0.26 1.82 1.70 0.93 0.93 72 -0.22 -0.20 2.04 1.92 0.92 0.93 96 -0.15 2.28 0.90 120 -0.11 2.75 0.85 144 -0.07 3.26 0.78 168 -0.11 3.73 0.75 192 -0.16 4.29 0.72 216 -0.12 4.70 0.68 240 -0.15 5.13 0.63 264 -0.25 5.55 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 127 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.12 1.06 1.06 0.94 0.95 48 -0.11 -0.12 1.24 1.23 0.95 0.95 72 -0.07 -0.09 1.51 1.53 0.93 0.93 96 -0.06 1.96 0.90 120 -0.06 2.47 0.85 144 0.00 2.93 0.79 168 -0.01 3.44 0.72 192 0.02 3.74 0.68 216 -0.03 4.13 0.62 240 -0.04 4.45 0.57 264 -0.18 4.74 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 143 12 UTC = 143 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.28 1.18 1.19 0.91 0.91 48 0.10 0.22 1.38 1.39 0.92 0.91 72 0.05 0.17 1.68 1.65 0.89 0.89 96 0.19 2.10 0.85 120 0.30 2.47 0.80 144 0.40 2.77 0.75 168 0.43 3.17 0.70 192 0.42 3.53 0.66 216 0.63 3.64 0.67 240 0.81 3.90 0.65 264 0.91 4.10 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.90 3.84 3.74 48 -0.92 -0.98 4.22 4.09 72 -0.97 -1.03 4.78 4.62 96 -0.98 5.26 120 -0.93 5.99 144 -0.87 6.67 168 -1.00 7.42 192 -0.97 8.17 216 -1.20 8.83 240 -1.34 9.02 264 -1.43 9.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 125 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.49 4.45 4.48 48 -0.88 -0.68 5.33 5.37 72 -1.01 -0.79 6.44 6.45 96 -0.92 7.76 120 -1.02 9.06 144 -1.08 10.57 168 -1.23 11.93 192 -1.38 12.93 216 -1.41 13.46 240 -1.56 14.22 264 -1.68 15.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.63 4.98 4.88 48 -1.12 -0.99 6.16 6.10 72 -1.33 -1.17 7.84 7.69 96 -1.34 9.97 120 -1.42 11.86 144 -1.58 14.52 168 -1.61 16.77 192 -1.90 18.34 216 -1.76 19.27 240 -1.80 20.99 264 -2.02 21.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 141 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.78 -7.14 9.90 12.94 0.96 0.98 48 -7.09 -8.36 12.11 14.84 0.97 0.98 72 -8.88 -8.44 14.99 17.59 0.97 0.97 96 -7.74 20.06 0.96 120 -5.72 23.61 0.95 144 -2.65 29.05 0.91 168 -2.98 34.95 0.87 192 -2.64 38.46 0.82 216 -3.95 45.45 0.81 240 -3.34 52.52 0.73 264 -9.28 58.54 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.50 -12.59 12.82 18.61 0.98 0.98 48 -7.84 -12.55 15.42 20.97 0.98 0.98 72 -9.20 -12.38 18.79 25.59 0.96 0.97 96 -11.38 30.44 0.95 120 -8.73 36.38 0.93 144 -3.55 43.80 0.90 168 -0.60 56.00 0.88 192 1.11 62.34 0.77 216 -2.18 73.12 0.76 240 0.38 83.48 0.73 264 -4.26 91.04 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.90 -14.28 15.17 22.45 0.98 0.97 48 -8.14 -14.49 20.22 26.24 0.98 0.98 72 -8.82 -15.21 25.90 33.25 0.97 0.97 96 -13.86 40.16 0.94 120 -9.74 51.57 0.90 144 -2.37 61.94 0.88 168 3.74 77.42 0.84 192 6.52 87.09 0.74 216 1.42 100.50 0.75 240 5.09 112.49 0.70 264 3.48 120.45 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.40 1.38 1.38 0.88 0.88 48 -0.06 -0.29 1.48 1.49 0.93 0.89 72 -0.05 -0.27 1.62 1.72 0.93 0.89 96 -0.34 1.79 0.89 120 -0.25 2.23 0.86 144 -0.30 2.52 0.80 168 0.00 3.01 0.76 192 0.17 3.05 0.73 216 0.01 3.70 0.66 240 0.17 3.87 0.67 264 0.26 3.90 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 -0.03 0.87 1.04 0.89 0.89 48 0.10 0.03 1.03 1.20 0.92 0.93 72 0.13 0.04 1.20 1.42 0.91 0.92 96 0.06 1.54 0.91 120 0.19 1.85 0.87 144 0.26 2.28 0.84 168 0.55 2.59 0.74 192 0.55 2.80 0.69 216 0.30 3.19 0.71 240 0.50 3.35 0.65 264 0.56 3.70 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.18 0.93 1.15 0.89 0.88 48 0.23 0.11 1.06 1.25 0.92 0.92 72 0.26 0.05 1.25 1.50 0.88 0.89 96 0.08 1.71 0.87 120 0.01 2.16 0.84 144 0.16 2.38 0.78 168 0.12 2.76 0.67 192 0.17 2.77 0.67 216 0.31 3.26 0.63 240 0.31 3.65 0.51 264 0.62 3.62 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.56 4.06 4.27 48 -0.55 -0.63 4.49 4.57 72 -0.59 -0.75 4.91 5.05 96 -0.83 5.39 120 -0.83 5.86 144 -0.70 6.78 168 -0.56 7.15 192 -0.61 7.94 216 -0.48 8.42 240 -0.51 8.97 264 -0.54 9.23 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 16 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.59 4.17 4.78 48 -0.53 -0.60 4.81 5.36 72 -0.46 -0.64 5.56 6.46 96 -0.61 6.92 120 -0.56 8.19 144 -0.68 9.82 168 -0.47 10.75 192 -0.59 11.35 216 -0.47 13.09 240 -0.68 13.05 264 -0.31 14.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 17 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.89 5.34 5.95 48 -0.55 -0.73 6.63 6.96 72 -0.42 -0.63 7.93 8.38 96 -0.29 10.28 120 -0.41 12.72 144 -0.50 15.10 168 -0.65 16.67 192 -0.04 17.88 216 -0.95 18.74 240 -0.73 20.06 264 -0.20 21.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 16 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.24 -3.79 10.37 11.17 0.71 0.71 48 -4.19 -3.52 10.79 11.54 0.81 0.82 72 -4.79 -4.02 11.45 12.01 0.83 0.84 96 -4.54 12.26 0.81 120 -4.85 12.74 0.78 144 -4.37 13.13 0.78 168 -4.48 13.85 0.74 192 -4.57 14.87 0.67 216 -4.52 15.74 0.60 240 -5.15 16.83 0.55 264 -5.47 17.56 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.77 -11.46 15.54 16.27 0.63 0.64 48 -12.40 -12.05 16.25 16.96 0.77 0.78 72 -13.85 -13.17 17.69 18.04 0.80 0.81 96 -14.16 18.82 0.79 120 -14.71 19.52 0.76 144 -14.14 19.45 0.72 168 -14.28 19.70 0.69 192 -14.46 20.27 0.66 216 -14.55 21.12 0.60 240 -15.39 22.33 0.57 264 -15.78 23.08 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.99 -11.81 16.02 18.25 0.68 0.64 48 -13.04 -13.90 17.87 19.93 0.81 0.77 72 -15.70 -16.46 20.38 22.34 0.84 0.80 96 -18.47 24.48 0.80 120 -19.43 25.89 0.77 144 -19.07 26.22 0.75 168 -18.96 26.67 0.73 192 -18.91 27.43 0.71 216 -18.99 28.86 0.64 240 -20.04 30.83 0.60 264 -20.35 32.14 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.28 1.00 1.01 0.47 0.48 48 -0.29 -0.29 1.03 1.04 0.60 0.61 72 -0.32 -0.31 1.10 1.09 0.62 0.63 96 -0.32 1.12 0.64 120 -0.33 1.16 0.64 144 -0.32 1.18 0.62 168 -0.31 1.18 0.61 192 -0.33 1.29 0.53 216 -0.36 1.39 0.52 240 -0.38 1.46 0.49 264 -0.39 1.53 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.09 0.76 0.75 0.56 0.53 48 -0.03 -0.12 0.80 0.79 0.65 0.65 72 -0.07 -0.18 0.84 0.84 0.68 0.68 96 -0.24 0.90 0.67 120 -0.26 0.95 0.65 144 -0.25 0.99 0.63 168 -0.25 1.04 0.61 192 -0.25 1.09 0.58 216 -0.26 1.14 0.55 240 -0.28 1.19 0.50 264 -0.27 1.24 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.02 0.65 0.59 0.57 0.61 48 -0.01 -0.06 0.70 0.67 0.67 0.68 72 -0.09 -0.14 0.75 0.75 0.68 0.67 96 -0.19 0.79 0.67 120 -0.21 0.84 0.67 144 -0.22 0.88 0.66 168 -0.21 0.91 0.64 192 -0.19 0.96 0.61 216 -0.19 1.01 0.56 240 -0.21 1.08 0.52 264 -0.23 1.12 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.62 3.32 3.33 48 -0.70 -0.70 3.52 3.57 72 -0.84 -0.79 3.73 3.75 96 -0.86 3.98 120 -0.87 4.20 144 -0.86 4.47 168 -0.87 4.82 192 -0.75 5.12 216 -0.58 5.34 240 -0.44 5.62 264 -0.36 5.88 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.00 -0.98 3.75 3.65 48 -1.22 -1.19 4.26 4.11 72 -1.35 -1.30 4.63 4.55 96 -1.37 4.85 120 -1.40 5.29 144 -1.41 5.65 168 -1.52 5.88 192 -1.60 6.12 216 -1.55 6.50 240 -1.42 6.81 264 -1.29 7.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 72 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.90 4.47 4.51 48 -0.91 -1.08 5.33 5.41 72 -1.11 -1.28 6.08 6.09 96 -1.43 6.68 120 -1.49 7.38 144 -1.55 7.93 168 -1.67 8.56 192 -1.68 9.13 216 -1.57 9.91 240 -1.46 10.64 264 -1.39 11.24 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.02 -1.86 9.62 9.41 0.98 0.98 48 -0.34 -1.45 12.74 12.80 0.98 0.98 72 0.55 -0.36 18.15 18.24 0.97 0.97 96 0.01 26.32 0.95 120 0.16 34.23 0.91 144 -0.19 43.83 0.85 168 -0.50 52.88 0.79 192 -0.42 63.65 0.71 216 0.01 73.06 0.63 240 3.12 78.64 0.58 264 5.80 81.15 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 342 12 UTC = 341 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.72 -3.93 12.25 12.60 0.99 0.99 48 -3.14 -3.68 17.08 17.58 0.99 0.99 72 -2.12 -2.63 24.76 25.39 0.98 0.98 96 -1.82 36.98 0.95 120 -1.42 49.71 0.92 144 -1.50 64.03 0.87 168 -2.51 76.93 0.80 192 -2.19 91.14 0.73 216 -1.48 107.42 0.65 240 2.35 117.18 0.61 264 5.35 124.65 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 358 12 UTC = 356 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.28 -5.84 17.49 17.68 0.99 0.99 48 -5.57 -6.63 23.93 24.41 0.99 0.99 72 -5.52 -6.60 34.59 35.35 0.98 0.98 96 -6.13 50.57 0.96 120 -5.79 68.72 0.93 144 -6.21 89.39 0.87 168 -7.99 106.80 0.80 192 -6.09 125.62 0.73 216 -4.23 147.95 0.66 240 2.71 165.25 0.62 264 6.96 176.02 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 357 12 UTC = 355 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.35 1.58 1.55 0.93 0.93 48 -0.32 -0.31 1.77 1.74 0.94 0.94 72 -0.26 -0.25 2.05 2.05 0.94 0.94 96 -0.21 2.52 0.91 120 -0.14 3.07 0.87 144 -0.09 3.73 0.81 168 -0.10 4.22 0.75 192 -0.14 4.64 0.74 216 -0.05 5.15 0.71 240 -0.03 5.81 0.64 264 -0.02 6.23 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 376 12 UTC = 374 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.12 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 48 -0.14 -0.16 1.21 1.21 0.96 0.96 72 -0.16 -0.18 1.54 1.59 0.95 0.95 96 -0.19 2.05 0.92 120 -0.20 2.62 0.88 144 -0.19 3.18 0.81 168 -0.26 3.66 0.74 192 -0.20 4.11 0.69 216 -0.20 4.61 0.63 240 -0.12 5.02 0.60 264 -0.12 5.35 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 404 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.24 1.12 1.12 0.93 0.93 48 0.23 0.22 1.36 1.36 0.93 0.93 72 0.21 0.18 1.69 1.70 0.91 0.91 96 0.19 2.13 0.87 120 0.24 2.52 0.83 144 0.24 2.90 0.77 168 0.29 3.23 0.72 192 0.32 3.60 0.68 216 0.50 3.91 0.64 240 0.70 4.09 0.62 264 0.75 4.25 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 398 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.84 3.89 3.89 48 -0.95 -0.93 4.34 4.36 72 -1.00 -0.99 5.01 5.09 96 -0.96 6.08 120 -0.93 7.01 144 -0.91 8.03 168 -0.91 8.87 192 -0.79 9.87 216 -0.77 10.57 240 -0.85 11.07 264 -1.07 11.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 362 12 UTC = 360 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.70 4.28 4.34 48 -0.84 -0.85 5.30 5.36 72 -0.98 -0.97 6.66 6.75 96 -1.05 8.41 120 -1.04 10.15 144 -1.09 11.97 168 -1.15 13.43 192 -1.15 14.76 216 -1.11 16.03 240 -1.15 17.22 264 -1.38 17.98 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 393 12 UTC = 393 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.65 5.05 5.04 48 -0.90 -0.90 6.58 6.56 72 -1.05 -1.04 8.60 8.66 96 -1.07 11.28 120 -1.07 13.93 144 -1.27 16.88 168 -1.24 19.32 192 -1.25 21.47 216 -1.01 23.69 240 -0.87 25.92 264 -1.17 26.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 393 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.85 -2.88 8.39 9.39 0.97 0.97 48 -4.37 -3.23 11.07 12.37 0.98 0.98 72 -5.92 -3.60 14.55 15.28 0.97 0.97 96 -4.36 19.65 0.95 120 -3.88 23.86 0.94 144 -2.28 29.86 0.90 168 -2.59 37.03 0.87 192 -1.16 43.72 0.81 216 -1.14 50.86 0.73 240 -0.47 55.26 0.67 264 -2.13 57.21 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.97 -7.38 11.17 13.33 0.98 0.98 48 -6.52 -6.55 14.55 16.33 0.98 0.98 72 -7.43 -5.77 18.83 21.40 0.96 0.97 96 -5.65 27.49 0.95 120 -4.74 36.15 0.92 144 -1.97 46.09 0.87 168 -1.62 55.36 0.84 192 0.54 62.18 0.78 216 0.76 72.43 0.72 240 1.57 81.57 0.68 264 1.81 83.81 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.65 -9.23 15.88 19.38 0.98 0.98 48 -8.32 -9.42 21.92 23.93 0.98 0.98 72 -8.72 -8.95 29.15 30.93 0.97 0.97 96 -8.96 39.78 0.95 120 -6.95 53.68 0.90 144 -3.13 68.29 0.84 168 -1.74 81.08 0.81 192 -0.17 90.33 0.76 216 -1.89 103.84 0.73 240 -1.21 115.00 0.70 264 0.94 118.73 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.23 1.59 1.63 0.88 0.88 48 -0.21 -0.05 1.68 1.82 0.93 0.91 72 -0.15 0.02 1.82 2.00 0.92 0.90 96 0.00 2.19 0.88 120 0.04 2.58 0.85 144 0.05 2.85 0.83 168 0.14 3.26 0.77 192 0.10 3.49 0.69 216 0.07 3.95 0.63 240 0.15 4.08 0.62 264 0.36 4.20 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.03 0.89 1.04 0.90 0.91 48 0.04 -0.05 1.09 1.22 0.93 0.93 72 0.06 -0.02 1.34 1.46 0.91 0.91 96 0.01 1.70 0.89 120 0.06 2.11 0.84 144 0.12 2.54 0.79 168 0.25 2.87 0.72 192 0.26 3.01 0.73 216 0.20 3.26 0.72 240 0.23 3.47 0.70 264 0.30 3.65 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.03 1.01 1.09 0.90 0.90 48 0.13 -0.02 1.18 1.28 0.92 0.92 72 0.15 -0.06 1.43 1.52 0.90 0.89 96 -0.04 1.76 0.88 120 -0.06 2.11 0.84 144 -0.07 2.28 0.82 168 -0.15 2.69 0.75 192 -0.21 2.85 0.72 216 -0.21 3.26 0.66 240 -0.19 3.53 0.59 264 -0.03 3.62 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.77 4.46 4.34 48 -0.79 -0.77 4.83 4.71 72 -0.73 -0.77 5.29 5.18 96 -0.83 5.69 120 -0.78 6.18 144 -0.72 6.92 168 -0.74 7.55 192 -0.76 8.39 216 -0.75 9.01 240 -0.76 9.24 264 -0.80 9.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.65 4.25 4.63 48 -0.52 -0.66 5.02 5.39 72 -0.48 -0.64 5.89 6.31 96 -0.59 7.29 120 -0.52 8.62 144 -0.58 9.87 168 -0.48 10.71 192 -0.76 11.94 216 -0.92 12.84 240 -1.10 13.32 264 -1.28 13.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 44 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.80 5.76 5.94 48 -0.45 -0.75 7.08 7.01 72 -0.29 -0.58 8.44 8.58 96 -0.42 10.71 120 -0.52 12.45 144 -0.44 14.67 168 -0.45 16.41 192 -0.50 18.64 216 -1.23 20.10 240 -1.70 21.37 264 -1.99 22.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------