VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY DECEMBER 2014 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.07 0.95 1.00 0.99 0.99 15.1 15.8 48 0.13 0.13 1.68 1.72 0.98 0.98 23.3 24.0 72 0.15 0.14 2.55 2.66 0.96 0.96 30.9 32.4 96 0.14 3.77 0.91 40.7 120 0.12 5.03 0.84 48.8 144 0.12 6.21 0.76 55.6 168 0.05 7.50 0.66 62.6 192 0.00 8.51 0.58 67.4 216 -0.07 9.60 0.48 71.7 240 -0.17 10.42 0.40 75.5 264 -0.25 10.71 0.35 77.5 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.43 7.02 7.27 1.00 1.00 9.3 9.4 48 -0.46 -0.68 14.41 14.66 0.99 0.99 17.0 17.0 72 -0.89 -1.16 24.28 25.13 0.97 0.97 24.9 25.3 96 -1.72 37.01 0.93 33.2 120 -2.20 50.23 0.87 40.5 144 -2.48 62.91 0.80 46.8 168 -3.41 76.76 0.71 52.8 192 -4.13 88.82 0.62 57.8 216 -5.03 100.32 0.53 61.6 240 -5.75 110.44 0.44 64.6 264 -6.17 116.56 0.37 66.7 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.24 8.98 8.98 1.00 1.00 7.4 7.3 48 -1.30 -1.22 18.74 18.74 0.99 0.99 12.9 12.9 72 -2.30 -2.41 31.65 32.61 0.97 0.97 19.2 19.4 96 -3.54 48.29 0.94 26.1 120 -4.01 66.31 0.89 32.8 144 -4.61 83.61 0.82 38.8 168 -6.17 102.05 0.73 44.5 192 -7.03 119.74 0.63 49.5 216 -7.27 135.22 0.54 53.4 240 -8.31 150.77 0.44 56.8 264 -8.74 160.61 0.37 58.8 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.50 0.50 0.99 0.99 48 -0.07 -0.06 0.93 0.93 0.97 0.97 72 -0.11 -0.09 1.39 1.41 0.94 0.94 96 -0.14 1.91 0.89 120 -0.18 2.47 0.82 144 -0.19 2.96 0.74 168 -0.21 3.43 0.65 192 -0.24 3.90 0.55 216 -0.25 4.30 0.45 240 -0.29 4.69 0.35 264 -0.32 4.91 0.30 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.04 0.63 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 -0.01 0.01 1.06 1.06 0.95 0.95 72 -0.02 0.00 1.51 1.52 0.90 0.90 96 0.01 1.98 0.83 120 0.04 2.42 0.74 144 0.04 2.78 0.66 168 0.03 3.12 0.58 192 0.06 3.42 0.49 216 0.12 3.65 0.43 240 0.18 3.82 0.37 264 0.21 4.03 0.30 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.11 2.24 2.28 48 -0.25 -0.22 4.07 4.10 72 -0.34 -0.30 5.94 5.99 96 -0.36 7.86 120 -0.44 9.72 144 -0.50 11.36 168 -0.51 13.09 192 -0.47 14.50 216 -0.36 15.67 240 -0.28 16.63 264 -0.29 17.27 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.12 3.16 3.13 48 -0.29 -0.24 5.37 5.33 72 -0.35 -0.30 7.78 7.82 96 -0.32 10.40 120 -0.35 13.10 144 -0.49 15.71 168 -0.60 18.33 192 -0.53 20.61 216 -0.44 22.60 240 -0.39 24.29 264 -0.43 25.30 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.02 3.12 3.18 0.98 0.98 26.3 26.4 48 -0.19 -0.13 4.79 4.50 0.94 0.95 34.5 34.3 72 -0.43 -0.27 5.69 5.43 0.92 0.93 39.2 39.0 96 -0.47 6.06 0.92 42.2 120 -0.71 6.96 0.89 45.2 144 -1.08 8.09 0.85 48.3 168 -1.10 9.13 0.82 50.9 192 -1.25 9.95 0.80 53.3 216 -1.49 10.65 0.76 55.2 240 -1.53 11.56 0.72 56.7 264 -1.68 12.58 0.66 58.8 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 0.12 4.37 4.52 0.99 0.99 19.7 19.8 48 -1.71 -1.60 7.29 7.34 0.96 0.96 27.5 27.6 72 -3.13 -2.95 10.11 10.06 0.93 0.93 33.2 33.2 96 -3.84 12.22 0.90 37.7 120 -4.30 14.43 0.86 42.0 144 -4.47 16.53 0.81 46.1 168 -4.26 18.57 0.75 49.8 192 -4.29 20.68 0.68 53.2 216 -4.65 22.82 0.61 56.5 240 -4.89 24.79 0.54 59.4 264 -5.48 26.59 0.47 62.3 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 0.44 0.45 0.96 0.96 48 -0.03 -0.03 0.71 0.71 0.88 0.91 72 -0.01 -0.01 0.89 0.88 0.81 0.86 96 0.01 0.99 0.82 120 0.01 1.10 0.79 144 0.00 1.20 0.75 168 0.00 1.28 0.71 192 0.01 1.37 0.67 216 0.01 1.45 0.63 240 0.01 1.52 0.59 264 0.00 1.60 0.55 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 0.37 0.36 0.92 0.93 48 -0.02 -0.03 0.52 0.52 0.85 0.85 72 -0.06 -0.07 0.62 0.63 0.78 0.79 96 -0.08 0.71 0.74 120 -0.09 0.78 0.68 144 -0.10 0.84 0.63 168 -0.11 0.89 0.58 192 -0.11 0.92 0.56 216 -0.11 0.97 0.51 240 -0.11 1.01 0.47 264 -0.13 1.05 0.43 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.09 1.44 1.44 48 -0.18 -0.19 2.11 2.08 72 -0.25 -0.25 2.53 2.49 96 -0.25 2.84 120 -0.23 3.18 144 -0.23 3.51 168 -0.26 3.83 192 -0.29 4.14 216 -0.33 4.37 240 -0.36 4.59 264 -0.39 4.81 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.39 3.19 3.16 48 -0.62 -0.62 4.72 4.71 72 -0.80 -0.79 5.82 5.84 96 -0.88 6.81 120 -0.94 7.62 144 -1.03 8.45 168 -1.14 9.12 192 -1.23 9.75 216 -1.25 10.49 240 -1.27 11.17 264 -1.26 11.80 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 0.83 0.81 0.99 0.99 12.7 12.8 48 -0.16 -0.14 1.57 1.52 0.98 0.98 21.7 21.8 72 -0.18 -0.15 2.37 2.32 0.96 0.96 30.0 29.9 96 -0.12 3.26 0.91 37.7 120 -0.06 4.33 0.84 45.2 144 0.02 5.47 0.75 52.3 168 0.10 6.39 0.67 56.8 192 0.17 7.25 0.57 60.8 216 0.27 8.01 0.48 64.0 240 0.36 8.39 0.43 65.5 264 0.44 8.75 0.38 66.9 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.94 1.75 7.34 7.25 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.5 48 2.81 2.68 14.51 14.56 0.99 0.99 17.3 17.3 72 3.73 3.55 23.43 23.36 0.97 0.97 25.0 25.0 96 4.49 34.04 0.93 32.5 120 5.40 46.18 0.87 39.7 144 6.36 58.74 0.80 46.3 168 7.28 70.90 0.71 51.4 192 7.85 81.21 0.62 55.6 216 8.88 88.95 0.54 58.7 240 9.59 93.80 0.49 60.9 264 10.00 99.23 0.43 62.9 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.68 0.57 9.53 9.57 1.00 1.00 8.5 8.5 48 0.49 0.37 19.10 19.12 0.99 0.99 15.0 15.1 72 0.74 0.51 30.84 30.83 0.97 0.97 21.7 21.8 96 0.93 45.09 0.93 28.7 120 1.63 60.82 0.88 35.6 144 2.64 77.62 0.80 41.7 168 3.65 94.89 0.71 47.0 192 4.13 110.72 0.61 51.5 216 4.85 120.07 0.54 54.6 240 5.91 127.00 0.48 57.1 264 6.20 135.28 0.42 59.3 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.46 0.47 0.99 0.99 48 0.04 0.04 0.88 0.88 0.96 0.96 72 0.05 0.04 1.31 1.30 0.92 0.92 96 0.05 1.74 0.86 120 0.06 2.19 0.77 144 0.09 2.61 0.68 168 0.10 3.01 0.58 192 0.09 3.36 0.49 216 0.10 3.57 0.42 240 0.12 3.73 0.36 264 0.09 3.92 0.31 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.09 0.58 0.57 0.99 0.99 48 -0.18 -0.18 1.01 1.01 0.96 0.96 72 -0.23 -0.23 1.47 1.45 0.91 0.91 96 -0.27 1.90 0.85 120 -0.28 2.33 0.77 144 -0.28 2.71 0.68 168 -0.26 3.04 0.60 192 -0.25 3.27 0.55 216 -0.28 3.50 0.49 240 -0.28 3.67 0.44 264 -0.25 3.79 0.40 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.14 2.05 2.06 48 -0.23 -0.25 3.76 3.74 72 -0.31 -0.31 5.45 5.38 96 -0.39 7.05 120 -0.42 8.73 144 -0.43 10.34 168 -0.40 11.71 192 -0.40 12.78 216 -0.40 13.72 240 -0.39 14.32 264 -0.38 14.79 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.16 3.14 3.16 48 -0.33 -0.29 5.51 5.51 72 -0.45 -0.38 7.89 7.89 96 -0.46 10.27 120 -0.51 12.84 144 -0.50 15.25 168 -0.42 17.38 192 -0.37 19.22 216 -0.43 20.61 240 -0.42 21.75 264 -0.38 22.70 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.24 -1.56 8.08 8.35 0.99 0.99 48 0.39 -0.40 12.47 12.50 0.98 0.98 72 2.14 1.22 18.21 17.98 0.96 0.96 96 1.19 26.73 0.93 120 -1.19 36.38 0.89 144 -4.41 45.37 0.84 168 -5.72 54.57 0.78 192 -9.84 61.02 0.72 216 -13.83 69.66 0.66 240 -16.34 71.52 0.64 264 -13.68 68.74 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.27 -6.11 11.42 11.99 0.99 0.99 48 -3.46 -5.23 16.98 17.23 0.98 0.99 72 -1.30 -2.78 26.98 27.68 0.97 0.96 96 -2.83 40.06 0.94 120 -6.29 55.18 0.90 144 -12.92 69.69 0.87 168 -15.28 82.36 0.84 192 -17.49 92.23 0.80 216 -22.53 104.30 0.74 240 -25.83 112.42 0.73 264 -21.66 114.96 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.69 -9.26 15.12 16.10 0.99 0.99 48 -6.92 -9.34 23.26 23.86 0.99 0.99 72 -4.48 -6.52 36.80 38.45 0.97 0.97 96 -6.57 55.47 0.95 120 -11.43 76.12 0.92 144 -19.36 95.53 0.89 168 -23.28 113.70 0.86 192 -23.52 128.98 0.81 216 -27.31 144.45 0.76 240 -31.44 159.28 0.74 264 -26.09 168.56 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.56 1.69 1.82 0.92 0.92 48 -0.42 -0.51 1.90 1.99 0.94 0.93 72 -0.32 -0.41 2.21 2.31 0.92 0.92 96 -0.46 2.78 0.91 120 -0.51 3.47 0.88 144 -0.64 4.28 0.83 168 -0.64 4.85 0.80 192 -0.64 5.35 0.76 216 -0.91 5.83 0.71 240 -1.04 6.34 0.68 264 -0.81 6.50 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.16 0.90 0.94 0.96 0.95 48 -0.11 -0.20 1.24 1.24 0.95 0.96 72 -0.12 -0.18 1.65 1.68 0.94 0.93 96 -0.18 2.18 0.91 120 -0.29 2.76 0.88 144 -0.52 3.32 0.85 168 -0.59 3.74 0.83 192 -0.49 4.14 0.78 216 -0.57 4.52 0.74 240 -0.65 4.93 0.71 264 -0.55 5.19 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.20 1.07 1.08 0.95 0.94 48 0.15 0.15 1.40 1.35 0.94 0.93 72 0.16 0.16 1.77 1.70 0.92 0.91 96 0.14 2.16 0.87 120 0.20 2.68 0.82 144 0.27 3.04 0.78 168 0.19 3.28 0.73 192 0.24 3.52 0.68 216 0.48 3.78 0.66 240 0.51 4.03 0.60 264 0.50 4.24 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.16 -1.19 4.11 4.09 48 -1.34 -1.38 4.69 4.67 72 -1.49 -1.49 5.44 5.39 96 -1.50 6.49 120 -1.36 7.71 144 -1.32 8.96 168 -1.38 9.90 192 -1.16 10.57 216 -0.85 11.23 240 -0.83 11.38 264 -1.13 11.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.90 4.51 4.55 48 -1.04 -1.17 5.74 5.66 72 -1.25 -1.32 7.55 7.28 96 -1.40 9.34 120 -1.39 11.25 144 -1.35 13.10 168 -1.63 14.55 192 -1.42 15.79 216 -1.13 16.72 240 -0.95 18.11 264 -0.81 19.17 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -0.98 5.82 5.56 48 -1.27 -1.33 7.72 7.39 72 -1.31 -1.48 9.96 9.75 96 -1.56 12.51 120 -1.69 15.92 144 -1.66 18.65 168 -1.76 21.29 192 -1.60 23.08 216 -1.43 24.27 240 -0.91 27.22 264 -1.16 28.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.05 -4.57 10.19 10.12 0.98 0.98 48 -4.98 -5.46 13.92 13.90 0.97 0.98 72 -5.38 -7.16 21.03 20.96 0.94 0.96 96 -6.57 33.97 0.92 120 -2.82 43.28 0.88 144 -10.68 55.68 0.81 168 -13.76 66.35 0.78 192 -11.24 75.78 0.69 216 -15.68 80.53 0.66 240 -21.96 94.23 0.63 264 -12.30 92.45 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.05 -9.50 14.15 14.19 0.99 0.99 48 -11.67 -12.59 19.81 20.47 0.98 0.98 72 -13.13 -15.88 29.61 31.46 0.97 0.97 96 -14.81 46.41 0.94 120 -8.45 62.48 0.90 144 -14.08 79.93 0.86 168 -22.78 100.71 0.76 192 -17.69 112.30 0.66 216 -25.97 122.55 0.60 240 -35.44 137.40 0.63 264 -27.14 152.54 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.89 -12.53 17.51 18.02 0.99 0.99 48 -15.21 -17.60 26.91 27.58 0.99 0.99 72 -17.01 -21.10 40.94 43.24 0.98 0.98 96 -20.88 62.84 0.96 120 -10.98 88.85 0.91 144 -17.20 116.55 0.87 168 -38.23 147.44 0.76 192 -36.42 169.95 0.62 216 -49.71 184.24 0.55 240 -59.75 201.90 0.58 264 -48.60 227.43 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.40 1.40 1.36 0.87 0.87 48 -0.59 -0.53 1.60 1.52 0.89 0.90 72 -0.64 -0.63 1.84 1.80 0.88 0.88 96 -0.65 2.24 0.85 120 -0.56 2.70 0.80 144 -0.37 3.25 0.72 168 -0.60 3.88 0.69 192 -0.45 4.23 0.57 216 -0.41 4.36 0.52 240 -0.54 4.52 0.55 264 -0.57 5.21 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.20 0.90 0.88 0.96 0.96 48 -0.29 -0.33 1.12 1.15 0.96 0.96 72 -0.31 -0.35 1.54 1.62 0.94 0.93 96 -0.33 2.26 0.89 120 -0.13 3.08 0.80 144 -0.05 3.68 0.77 168 -0.54 4.57 0.67 192 -0.54 4.93 0.52 216 -0.89 5.31 0.43 240 -0.97 5.72 0.45 264 -1.12 6.52 0.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.43 0.37 1.18 1.13 0.92 0.92 48 0.31 0.23 1.39 1.37 0.92 0.92 72 0.26 0.16 1.74 1.75 0.87 0.87 96 0.03 2.13 0.81 120 -0.01 2.64 0.73 144 0.00 2.90 0.70 168 -0.40 3.48 0.60 192 -0.54 3.65 0.55 216 -0.66 3.97 0.56 240 -0.63 4.20 0.49 264 -0.42 4.79 0.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.86 4.19 4.25 48 -0.73 -0.77 4.72 4.72 72 -0.51 -0.66 5.67 5.63 96 -0.76 7.11 120 -0.75 8.21 144 -0.15 9.51 168 -0.41 10.80 192 -0.83 11.45 216 -1.09 11.80 240 -1.12 12.54 264 -1.42 13.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 57 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.52 4.46 4.44 48 -0.63 -0.45 5.46 5.43 72 -0.71 -0.36 7.14 7.20 96 -0.57 9.47 120 -0.87 11.75 144 -0.76 13.84 168 -0.81 16.29 192 -1.90 18.23 216 -1.96 18.65 240 -1.11 19.79 264 -0.89 21.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.76 5.20 5.07 48 -0.72 -0.79 6.82 6.66 72 -0.91 -0.49 9.58 9.64 96 -0.45 12.63 120 -0.78 16.80 144 -1.15 20.18 168 -1.64 23.72 192 -2.83 27.77 216 -3.27 29.13 240 -1.56 31.25 264 -0.77 33.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.15 -1.08 11.11 10.61 0.97 0.97 48 1.58 -0.65 13.69 13.41 0.97 0.97 72 1.44 -0.39 16.41 17.02 0.97 0.96 96 0.15 20.67 0.94 120 0.17 25.26 0.90 144 2.13 29.73 0.90 168 3.72 34.68 0.85 192 4.14 40.64 0.81 216 5.80 49.06 0.72 240 6.57 57.47 0.64 264 4.97 60.40 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 98 12 UTC = 99 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 -1.27 12.60 12.73 0.98 0.98 48 1.30 0.04 17.09 17.14 0.98 0.98 72 1.31 0.72 22.61 23.47 0.97 0.97 96 1.41 30.74 0.95 120 2.80 38.18 0.94 144 5.48 46.04 0.93 168 7.24 54.24 0.89 192 8.41 64.06 0.82 216 9.15 76.43 0.73 240 8.26 87.18 0.67 264 8.64 95.76 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 109 12 UTC = 109 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.39 -3.37 17.81 17.01 0.98 0.98 48 -2.83 -4.31 23.23 22.97 0.98 0.98 72 -2.79 -4.21 30.60 30.90 0.98 0.97 96 -2.83 40.08 0.96 120 1.37 50.34 0.94 144 6.23 61.99 0.93 168 8.88 74.38 0.89 192 10.88 89.83 0.82 216 11.31 104.44 0.75 240 9.06 123.89 0.68 264 9.96 135.90 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 109 12 UTC = 109 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.25 1.74 1.68 0.90 0.91 48 -0.20 -0.20 1.90 1.86 0.92 0.93 72 -0.18 -0.17 2.09 2.03 0.91 0.92 96 -0.14 2.29 0.88 120 -0.01 2.58 0.87 144 0.04 2.94 0.87 168 0.11 3.28 0.85 192 0.25 3.76 0.79 216 0.35 4.32 0.72 240 0.41 4.97 0.65 264 0.63 5.54 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 125 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.16 1.14 1.16 0.95 0.95 48 -0.16 -0.14 1.34 1.37 0.96 0.96 72 -0.16 -0.15 1.58 1.64 0.95 0.95 96 -0.14 1.96 0.92 120 -0.08 2.39 0.90 144 -0.08 2.75 0.89 168 -0.12 3.14 0.84 192 -0.07 3.72 0.77 216 -0.20 4.23 0.70 240 -0.41 4.79 0.65 264 -0.44 5.15 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 142 12 UTC = 142 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.26 1.32 1.26 0.92 0.93 48 0.08 0.14 1.53 1.47 0.93 0.93 72 0.12 0.17 1.80 1.76 0.91 0.91 96 0.32 2.10 0.87 120 0.46 2.46 0.84 144 0.61 2.73 0.83 168 0.71 3.06 0.78 192 0.68 3.33 0.75 216 0.63 3.74 0.70 240 0.81 3.98 0.67 264 0.76 4.28 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 140 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.93 4.01 3.95 48 -0.99 -1.09 4.35 4.35 72 -1.06 -1.20 4.73 4.80 96 -1.35 5.26 120 -1.43 5.82 144 -1.56 6.43 168 -1.76 6.89 192 -1.82 7.57 216 -2.03 8.17 240 -2.22 8.66 264 -2.29 9.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 122 12 UTC = 124 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.55 4.52 4.48 48 -0.95 -0.75 5.32 5.31 72 -1.06 -0.83 6.20 6.30 96 -0.90 7.41 120 -0.94 8.61 144 -1.06 9.66 168 -1.06 10.63 192 -1.19 12.35 216 -1.40 13.45 240 -1.45 14.48 264 -1.58 15.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -0.74 4.84 4.64 48 -1.36 -1.22 5.88 5.72 72 -1.52 -1.40 7.08 6.89 96 -1.49 8.17 120 -1.32 9.91 144 -1.39 11.64 168 -1.29 13.51 192 -1.39 15.85 216 -1.34 18.20 240 -1.37 20.57 264 -1.53 21.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 139 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.93 -6.64 9.94 12.61 0.97 0.97 48 -7.03 -6.19 12.30 13.79 0.95 0.97 72 -9.05 -7.27 15.98 17.53 0.94 0.93 96 -7.61 20.65 0.90 120 -8.44 25.50 0.87 144 -9.87 27.11 0.84 168 -7.70 33.26 0.83 192 -7.22 38.92 0.76 216 -9.29 45.03 0.62 240 -10.81 50.11 0.61 264 -10.27 55.79 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.88 -11.78 12.84 17.44 0.97 0.98 48 -7.62 -10.48 14.58 19.40 0.97 0.96 72 -8.90 -10.74 18.03 22.63 0.96 0.93 96 -11.43 26.61 0.90 120 -11.26 33.09 0.90 144 -12.27 35.35 0.89 168 -10.19 44.22 0.83 192 -9.24 52.68 0.77 216 -12.85 61.82 0.68 240 -13.39 68.40 0.61 264 -14.78 77.22 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.04 -12.47 15.43 19.39 0.97 0.97 48 -8.01 -12.38 19.19 23.66 0.97 0.97 72 -8.81 -12.63 25.30 28.26 0.95 0.96 96 -13.81 33.74 0.94 120 -13.41 42.15 0.92 144 -13.74 46.24 0.91 168 -13.29 59.62 0.83 192 -11.84 72.56 0.75 216 -17.39 84.31 0.71 240 -15.99 90.74 0.64 264 -16.45 100.80 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 -0.18 1.32 1.36 0.83 0.85 48 0.20 -0.05 1.49 1.52 0.88 0.87 72 0.22 0.09 1.70 1.57 0.88 0.86 96 0.02 1.78 0.86 120 0.03 2.12 0.83 144 0.10 2.21 0.78 168 0.11 2.48 0.75 192 0.32 2.92 0.72 216 0.07 3.28 0.60 240 0.07 3.47 0.60 264 -0.06 3.89 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.02 0.89 0.85 0.84 0.89 48 0.10 0.06 1.00 1.04 0.86 0.89 72 0.16 0.08 1.21 1.18 0.84 0.89 96 0.05 1.26 0.88 120 0.13 1.53 0.86 144 0.13 1.68 0.82 168 0.11 1.95 0.76 192 0.10 2.25 0.73 216 0.07 2.49 0.69 240 0.12 2.62 0.67 264 0.11 2.72 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.08 0.90 0.89 0.85 0.89 48 0.09 -0.03 1.04 1.03 0.87 0.88 72 0.09 0.01 1.23 1.27 0.83 0.87 96 0.00 1.41 0.86 120 -0.07 1.79 0.81 144 0.06 1.89 0.82 168 -0.01 2.20 0.73 192 -0.07 2.47 0.66 216 -0.04 2.57 0.68 240 0.03 2.80 0.65 264 0.10 2.88 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.56 4.06 3.82 48 -0.47 -0.57 4.50 4.35 72 -0.53 -0.71 5.19 4.88 96 -0.66 5.41 120 -0.58 6.06 144 -0.68 6.60 168 -0.77 7.01 192 -0.41 7.88 216 -0.56 7.82 240 -0.60 8.95 264 -0.63 9.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 16 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.44 4.12 4.15 48 -0.27 -0.58 4.76 4.97 72 -0.26 -0.69 5.50 5.41 96 -0.68 6.34 120 -0.82 7.52 144 -0.86 8.16 168 -1.06 8.79 192 -0.76 10.22 216 -0.68 11.35 240 -0.76 12.12 264 -1.03 13.08 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 35 12 UTC = 17 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.79 5.47 5.73 48 -0.72 -0.69 6.76 7.13 72 -0.58 -1.04 8.44 8.68 96 -1.40 10.16 120 -1.67 11.70 144 -1.47 13.13 168 -1.65 14.25 192 -1.45 16.45 216 -1.89 18.12 240 -1.38 19.56 264 -1.59 21.17 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 35 12 UTC = 17 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.21 -3.77 10.06 10.67 0.74 0.80 48 -2.81 -3.32 10.49 11.06 0.83 0.87 72 -3.36 -3.70 11.06 11.63 0.84 0.85 96 -3.79 11.81 0.82 120 -4.53 12.36 0.80 144 -4.46 13.07 0.77 168 -4.32 13.84 0.76 192 -4.19 14.22 0.76 216 -4.53 14.66 0.73 240 -4.66 15.16 0.71 264 -4.84 16.29 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.24 -11.23 15.13 15.92 0.68 0.72 48 -11.82 -11.89 15.82 16.57 0.82 0.84 72 -12.95 -12.93 17.00 17.57 0.84 0.84 96 -13.60 18.34 0.82 120 -14.53 19.32 0.80 144 -14.26 19.60 0.79 168 -14.01 20.13 0.78 192 -13.72 20.39 0.77 216 -14.15 21.23 0.73 240 -14.34 22.24 0.66 264 -14.94 23.43 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.45 -12.21 17.06 17.64 0.66 0.71 48 -13.13 -13.71 18.82 19.26 0.79 0.83 72 -15.11 -15.86 20.94 21.76 0.82 0.84 96 -16.93 23.56 0.81 120 -17.69 25.08 0.79 144 -17.35 25.85 0.77 168 -17.40 27.07 0.76 192 -17.23 28.11 0.73 216 -17.89 29.61 0.69 240 -18.33 31.33 0.64 264 -19.65 33.41 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 69 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.26 1.01 1.05 0.44 0.50 48 -0.25 -0.26 1.05 1.07 0.57 0.62 72 -0.28 -0.29 1.08 1.12 0.62 0.63 96 -0.29 1.14 0.64 120 -0.29 1.16 0.63 144 -0.28 1.20 0.64 168 -0.28 1.24 0.62 192 -0.28 1.28 0.60 216 -0.28 1.34 0.59 240 -0.27 1.41 0.56 264 -0.30 1.46 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.13 0.80 0.76 0.49 0.56 48 -0.09 -0.16 0.83 0.80 0.59 0.65 72 -0.12 -0.20 0.87 0.86 0.63 0.67 96 -0.26 0.93 0.67 120 -0.26 0.98 0.65 144 -0.24 1.01 0.63 168 -0.24 1.06 0.60 192 -0.24 1.11 0.58 216 -0.27 1.16 0.54 240 -0.29 1.24 0.50 264 -0.34 1.27 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.04 0.68 0.66 0.57 0.63 48 -0.02 -0.02 0.76 0.77 0.60 0.63 72 -0.05 -0.06 0.81 0.84 0.61 0.63 96 -0.09 0.89 0.63 120 -0.10 0.94 0.60 144 -0.11 0.99 0.56 168 -0.13 1.04 0.54 192 -0.16 1.03 0.58 216 -0.17 1.06 0.57 240 -0.17 1.09 0.56 264 -0.21 1.11 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.78 3.63 3.60 48 -0.84 -0.90 3.91 3.87 72 -0.98 -0.97 4.12 4.12 96 -1.04 4.24 120 -1.01 4.44 144 -0.96 4.69 168 -0.92 4.95 192 -0.92 5.33 216 -0.87 5.46 240 -0.86 5.73 264 -0.78 5.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.79 4.00 3.89 48 -1.00 -0.94 4.51 4.32 72 -1.09 -1.07 4.93 4.75 96 -1.20 5.13 120 -1.16 5.62 144 -1.13 6.12 168 -1.15 6.53 192 -1.18 6.95 216 -1.17 7.20 240 -1.13 7.73 264 -1.08 8.08 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -1.00 4.96 4.98 48 -0.98 -1.04 5.88 6.03 72 -1.12 -1.15 6.49 6.80 96 -1.29 7.52 120 -1.42 8.22 144 -1.54 8.68 168 -1.71 9.27 192 -1.98 9.69 216 -2.18 10.43 240 -2.26 10.93 264 -2.10 11.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.07 -1.82 10.23 10.19 0.98 0.98 48 -0.59 -1.48 13.97 14.00 0.98 0.98 72 -0.09 -1.12 19.70 20.20 0.96 0.96 96 -0.84 29.00 0.93 120 -0.87 37.86 0.89 144 -2.12 46.82 0.85 168 -2.42 56.08 0.81 192 -2.83 63.79 0.77 216 -2.98 71.76 0.70 240 -3.80 78.50 0.65 264 -1.59 78.74 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 340 12 UTC = 336 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.82 -4.44 13.03 13.02 0.99 0.99 48 -3.52 -4.41 18.43 18.56 0.99 0.98 72 -3.08 -4.02 27.09 27.92 0.97 0.97 96 -3.72 39.58 0.94 120 -3.31 53.26 0.91 144 -4.74 66.38 0.88 168 -6.20 80.68 0.83 192 -6.08 91.50 0.79 216 -7.42 103.37 0.73 240 -9.09 113.63 0.69 264 -6.90 121.09 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 355 12 UTC = 350 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.64 -6.82 17.23 17.02 0.99 0.99 48 -6.79 -8.28 24.38 24.37 0.99 0.99 72 -6.58 -8.21 36.30 37.06 0.98 0.98 96 -7.97 52.52 0.96 120 -6.46 72.18 0.93 144 -7.65 91.48 0.89 168 -11.51 110.95 0.84 192 -11.57 127.65 0.79 216 -13.12 142.92 0.74 240 -15.52 159.39 0.69 264 -12.88 172.13 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 356 12 UTC = 350 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.37 1.62 1.62 0.91 0.91 48 -0.35 -0.36 1.80 1.80 0.93 0.93 72 -0.33 -0.34 2.05 2.06 0.92 0.92 96 -0.34 2.44 0.90 120 -0.29 2.95 0.88 144 -0.27 3.51 0.85 168 -0.28 3.99 0.81 192 -0.26 4.45 0.77 216 -0.29 4.91 0.72 240 -0.28 5.39 0.68 264 -0.18 5.79 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 372 12 UTC = 367 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.16 1.02 1.03 0.96 0.96 48 -0.19 -0.19 1.27 1.29 0.96 0.96 72 -0.20 -0.20 1.63 1.67 0.95 0.95 96 -0.20 2.14 0.92 120 -0.18 2.74 0.88 144 -0.23 3.23 0.85 168 -0.33 3.72 0.81 192 -0.34 4.17 0.75 216 -0.45 4.61 0.69 240 -0.55 5.05 0.65 264 -0.59 5.45 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 397 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.26 1.20 1.17 0.94 0.94 48 0.21 0.20 1.48 1.44 0.94 0.94 72 0.22 0.20 1.83 1.80 0.91 0.91 96 0.23 2.22 0.87 120 0.30 2.68 0.83 144 0.37 2.98 0.81 168 0.33 3.32 0.76 192 0.32 3.56 0.73 216 0.34 3.87 0.68 240 0.40 4.05 0.66 264 0.42 4.35 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 399 12 UTC = 394 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.93 4.09 4.08 48 -1.01 -1.05 4.60 4.58 72 -1.06 -1.11 5.34 5.35 96 -1.20 6.30 120 -1.20 7.36 144 -1.15 8.33 168 -1.23 9.19 192 -1.21 9.88 216 -1.35 10.43 240 -1.47 10.79 264 -1.59 11.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 360 12 UTC = 357 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.69 4.46 4.46 48 -0.90 -0.83 5.49 5.50 72 -1.01 -0.89 6.92 6.91 96 -1.00 8.61 120 -1.10 10.38 144 -1.13 12.01 168 -1.21 13.49 192 -1.33 15.08 216 -1.35 16.01 240 -1.24 17.06 264 -1.25 17.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 391 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.71 5.04 4.90 48 -1.03 -0.95 6.50 6.35 72 -1.13 -1.04 8.51 8.45 96 -1.14 10.73 120 -1.15 13.64 144 -1.31 16.13 168 -1.41 18.60 192 -1.62 21.11 216 -1.66 22.88 240 -1.33 25.04 264 -1.39 26.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 391 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.78 -2.76 8.40 8.83 0.97 0.97 48 -4.80 -2.70 11.33 11.07 0.97 0.97 72 -6.53 -3.24 15.08 14.48 0.96 0.96 96 -3.31 18.51 0.94 120 -3.58 24.32 0.91 144 -2.97 29.75 0.86 168 -0.47 36.41 0.81 192 0.49 42.38 0.78 216 -1.26 46.61 0.70 240 -1.61 52.14 0.65 264 -1.47 53.71 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.84 -7.88 11.65 13.47 0.97 0.97 48 -6.51 -6.94 14.19 16.35 0.97 0.97 72 -7.70 -6.54 18.83 20.98 0.96 0.96 96 -6.43 26.96 0.94 120 -6.77 34.98 0.91 144 -6.77 42.80 0.87 168 -3.79 53.85 0.80 192 -2.74 60.85 0.77 216 -4.28 66.01 0.72 240 -3.68 75.14 0.60 264 -3.74 79.89 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.82 -8.75 15.88 18.41 0.97 0.98 48 -7.92 -9.25 20.77 23.82 0.97 0.98 72 -9.42 -9.30 28.19 30.43 0.96 0.96 96 -10.39 38.67 0.95 120 -11.82 48.61 0.92 144 -11.80 59.72 0.88 168 -8.34 74.74 0.82 192 -7.05 85.30 0.79 216 -9.78 92.57 0.76 240 -8.15 102.61 0.67 264 -7.73 112.92 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.34 1.58 1.57 0.85 0.86 48 -0.09 -0.20 1.71 1.70 0.89 0.89 72 -0.01 -0.12 1.89 1.80 0.89 0.89 96 -0.14 2.02 0.87 120 -0.09 2.36 0.83 144 -0.03 2.62 0.80 168 -0.03 2.76 0.75 192 -0.05 3.03 0.71 216 -0.11 3.39 0.62 240 0.01 3.57 0.55 264 -0.07 3.80 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.01 0.90 0.95 0.88 0.89 48 0.05 0.03 1.06 1.19 0.90 0.91 72 0.08 0.06 1.32 1.42 0.87 0.90 96 0.03 1.60 0.88 120 0.00 1.88 0.86 144 -0.06 2.13 0.82 168 -0.05 2.54 0.75 192 0.00 2.84 0.72 216 -0.03 2.98 0.70 240 0.05 3.22 0.63 264 0.02 3.48 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.01 0.95 0.95 0.89 0.90 48 -0.01 -0.07 1.13 1.18 0.90 0.91 72 0.00 -0.11 1.35 1.45 0.88 0.89 96 -0.19 1.63 0.88 120 -0.20 1.93 0.86 144 -0.08 2.15 0.84 168 -0.14 2.46 0.80 192 -0.26 2.66 0.78 216 -0.16 2.72 0.77 240 -0.23 3.09 0.72 264 -0.17 3.18 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 45 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -1.05 4.31 4.15 48 -0.70 -1.05 4.73 4.56 72 -0.76 -1.15 5.34 4.99 96 -1.16 5.46 120 -1.12 6.13 144 -1.20 6.74 168 -1.25 7.31 192 -1.26 8.16 216 -1.14 8.35 240 -1.14 8.97 264 -1.08 9.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.63 4.14 4.07 48 -0.49 -0.71 4.76 4.95 72 -0.44 -0.84 5.64 5.77 96 -0.90 6.86 120 -0.91 7.93 144 -0.99 8.83 168 -1.07 9.94 192 -0.96 11.19 216 -1.09 11.90 240 -1.11 12.42 264 -1.12 13.16 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 46 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2014 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.69 5.46 5.57 48 -0.67 -0.70 6.79 6.95 72 -0.67 -0.83 8.59 8.70 96 -1.04 10.29 120 -1.22 11.96 144 -1.12 13.77 168 -1.19 15.14 192 -0.92 17.24 216 -1.26 18.48 240 -1.08 19.94 264 -0.85 21.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 45 ---------------------------------------------------------