VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JANUARY 2015 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.07 1.00 1.04 0.99 0.99 15.6 16.3 48 0.11 0.15 1.78 1.80 0.98 0.98 24.1 25.1 72 0.16 0.19 2.73 2.75 0.96 0.96 32.7 33.7 96 0.19 3.92 0.91 42.6 120 0.19 5.29 0.84 51.2 144 0.22 6.53 0.76 58.4 168 0.22 7.60 0.67 63.9 192 0.25 8.71 0.55 68.9 216 0.27 9.67 0.45 73.1 240 0.23 10.43 0.38 75.5 264 0.23 11.12 0.30 78.7 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.35 7.49 7.67 1.00 1.00 9.2 9.3 48 -0.59 -0.39 15.68 15.75 0.99 0.99 17.1 17.1 72 -0.76 -0.68 25.85 25.93 0.97 0.97 25.1 25.1 96 -1.11 38.36 0.93 33.1 120 -1.72 52.68 0.87 40.5 144 -1.97 67.01 0.78 47.1 168 -2.26 78.94 0.70 52.2 192 -2.74 92.13 0.59 56.9 216 -3.27 102.99 0.48 60.4 240 -4.25 112.51 0.39 63.0 264 -4.68 121.46 0.31 65.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 0.15 9.73 9.81 1.00 1.00 7.3 7.3 48 -0.51 -0.29 20.09 19.99 0.99 0.99 12.8 12.7 72 -1.13 -1.01 32.95 33.02 0.97 0.97 18.9 18.9 96 -1.83 48.79 0.94 25.6 120 -3.00 66.36 0.89 32.0 144 -3.96 85.24 0.81 38.0 168 -4.57 102.83 0.73 43.4 192 -4.93 121.45 0.62 48.1 216 -5.94 136.00 0.52 51.6 240 -7.45 150.01 0.43 54.4 264 -9.15 164.06 0.32 57.8 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 0.51 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 -0.03 -0.04 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.97 72 -0.07 -0.06 1.46 1.44 0.94 0.94 96 -0.10 1.98 0.88 120 -0.16 2.54 0.80 144 -0.22 3.10 0.71 168 -0.25 3.59 0.61 192 -0.29 4.07 0.51 216 -0.33 4.46 0.41 240 -0.36 4.80 0.32 264 -0.40 5.13 0.23 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.05 0.66 0.66 0.98 0.98 48 0.03 0.04 1.10 1.10 0.95 0.95 72 0.03 0.04 1.59 1.59 0.90 0.90 96 0.06 2.10 0.83 120 0.10 2.58 0.74 144 0.11 3.01 0.65 168 0.09 3.33 0.56 192 0.11 3.61 0.48 216 0.10 3.89 0.40 240 0.10 4.07 0.36 264 0.05 4.22 0.31 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.09 2.32 2.35 48 -0.21 -0.20 4.25 4.25 72 -0.31 -0.30 6.19 6.20 96 -0.36 8.24 120 -0.41 10.22 144 -0.49 12.00 168 -0.54 13.43 192 -0.46 14.92 216 -0.45 16.00 240 -0.45 16.83 264 -0.50 17.63 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.18 3.31 3.27 48 -0.36 -0.34 5.53 5.45 72 -0.44 -0.42 7.88 7.89 96 -0.50 10.52 120 -0.57 13.20 144 -0.65 15.87 168 -0.69 18.31 192 -0.64 20.66 216 -0.71 22.41 240 -0.84 23.78 264 -0.98 25.32 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.27 3.21 3.16 0.98 0.98 25.9 26.0 48 -0.51 -0.51 5.32 4.95 0.96 0.96 34.9 34.3 72 -0.57 -0.57 6.66 6.28 0.93 0.94 40.1 39.5 96 -0.62 7.68 0.91 43.5 120 -0.54 9.03 0.87 47.0 144 -0.57 10.12 0.84 50.4 168 -0.59 10.62 0.83 53.1 192 -0.84 11.51 0.80 55.9 216 -0.64 12.22 0.77 58.1 240 -0.46 12.75 0.74 59.8 264 -0.87 13.24 0.72 61.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.62 0.56 4.69 4.60 0.98 0.98 20.0 20.2 48 -0.27 -0.31 7.45 7.58 0.95 0.96 27.9 28.3 72 -0.77 -0.77 10.03 10.22 0.92 0.92 33.5 34.1 96 -1.16 12.68 0.88 38.9 120 -1.47 14.98 0.83 42.9 144 -1.83 17.22 0.78 46.3 168 -2.01 19.61 0.71 50.1 192 -2.51 21.69 0.64 54.1 216 -2.82 23.93 0.55 57.5 240 -2.93 25.75 0.47 60.4 264 -3.26 26.65 0.42 62.4 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.03 0.45 0.47 0.96 0.96 48 0.02 0.01 0.73 0.74 0.90 0.90 72 0.05 0.04 0.91 0.91 0.84 0.85 96 0.05 1.05 0.80 120 0.06 1.17 0.74 144 0.09 1.31 0.68 168 0.11 1.44 0.62 192 0.12 1.56 0.55 216 0.12 1.66 0.49 240 0.10 1.71 0.45 264 0.11 1.74 0.44 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.04 0.39 0.38 0.94 0.94 48 0.06 0.05 0.56 0.56 0.87 0.88 72 0.07 0.05 0.67 0.68 0.81 0.82 96 0.06 0.77 0.76 120 0.06 0.84 0.72 144 0.05 0.89 0.68 168 0.04 0.93 0.65 192 0.04 0.97 0.62 216 0.02 1.03 0.57 240 -0.01 1.07 0.53 264 -0.04 1.10 0.49 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.05 1.49 1.47 48 -0.12 -0.14 2.23 2.18 72 -0.16 -0.17 2.77 2.71 96 -0.17 3.18 120 -0.17 3.55 144 -0.20 3.94 168 -0.25 4.25 192 -0.26 4.55 216 -0.27 4.82 240 -0.21 5.01 264 -0.18 5.13 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.38 3.25 3.25 48 -0.60 -0.60 4.92 4.90 72 -0.79 -0.81 6.10 6.13 96 -0.95 7.12 120 -1.05 7.92 144 -1.12 8.51 168 -1.13 9.29 192 -1.07 10.21 216 -1.04 11.01 240 -1.10 11.68 264 -1.21 12.12 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.05 0.84 0.83 0.99 0.99 13.1 13.3 48 -0.11 -0.12 1.61 1.56 0.98 0.98 22.6 22.7 72 -0.15 -0.16 2.46 2.40 0.95 0.95 31.1 31.0 96 -0.16 3.47 0.90 39.5 120 -0.17 4.71 0.81 47.9 144 -0.19 5.96 0.71 55.5 168 -0.19 6.84 0.62 61.3 192 -0.18 7.59 0.53 65.4 216 -0.21 8.19 0.46 68.5 240 -0.17 8.75 0.39 70.1 264 -0.10 9.08 0.34 71.1 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.25 2.07 7.50 7.42 1.00 1.00 9.8 9.8 48 3.35 3.17 14.93 14.66 0.99 0.99 17.8 17.7 72 4.29 4.12 23.90 23.62 0.97 0.97 25.6 25.3 96 5.05 34.95 0.93 33.0 120 5.76 47.41 0.87 40.6 144 6.10 61.01 0.78 47.5 168 6.29 72.44 0.69 53.3 192 6.15 82.51 0.60 57.9 216 6.03 89.93 0.52 60.6 240 6.54 96.31 0.46 62.6 264 7.60 101.90 0.38 64.2 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.96 0.89 9.78 9.86 1.00 1.00 8.8 9.0 48 0.96 0.87 20.47 20.19 0.99 0.99 15.9 15.8 72 1.32 1.12 33.41 32.90 0.97 0.97 23.1 22.9 96 1.80 48.13 0.93 30.1 120 2.52 64.53 0.87 37.2 144 3.12 83.33 0.79 44.1 168 3.54 100.28 0.69 50.1 192 3.57 115.97 0.59 55.1 216 4.00 126.76 0.51 58.1 240 5.19 134.17 0.45 60.0 264 6.78 141.50 0.38 61.6 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.05 0.47 0.47 0.99 0.99 48 0.06 0.07 0.89 0.89 0.96 0.96 72 0.08 0.08 1.33 1.31 0.92 0.92 96 0.10 1.75 0.86 120 0.12 2.18 0.78 144 0.13 2.63 0.68 168 0.13 3.07 0.56 192 0.13 3.39 0.46 216 0.15 3.61 0.40 240 0.18 3.76 0.35 264 0.22 3.94 0.30 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.11 0.60 0.60 0.98 0.98 48 -0.20 -0.21 1.07 1.07 0.95 0.95 72 -0.24 -0.25 1.55 1.53 0.88 0.89 96 -0.26 2.02 0.80 120 -0.26 2.50 0.70 144 -0.24 2.90 0.60 168 -0.23 3.25 0.49 192 -0.21 3.53 0.41 216 -0.19 3.70 0.35 240 -0.15 3.84 0.31 264 -0.13 3.93 0.27 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.17 2.08 2.09 48 -0.25 -0.27 3.82 3.78 72 -0.29 -0.32 5.50 5.46 96 -0.33 7.14 120 -0.33 8.87 144 -0.29 10.54 168 -0.30 11.93 192 -0.32 13.21 216 -0.29 13.91 240 -0.27 14.42 264 -0.32 14.89 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.21 3.15 3.23 48 -0.38 -0.36 5.69 5.66 72 -0.45 -0.44 8.32 8.26 96 -0.45 10.90 120 -0.51 13.40 144 -0.51 16.03 168 -0.53 18.37 192 -0.45 20.60 216 -0.42 21.91 240 -0.35 22.56 264 -0.38 23.29 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.20 -2.47 8.46 8.67 0.99 0.99 48 -1.21 -1.36 12.34 12.13 0.98 0.98 72 1.25 1.05 18.35 18.61 0.96 0.96 96 2.16 27.68 0.92 120 3.58 37.20 0.85 144 4.51 42.59 0.81 168 2.05 48.19 0.78 192 -1.56 52.10 0.68 216 -3.10 59.18 0.66 240 -4.63 65.60 0.65 264 -11.69 70.39 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.15 -7.39 11.76 12.64 0.99 0.99 48 -5.10 -6.51 17.95 18.33 0.98 0.99 72 -2.03 -3.35 28.10 27.95 0.97 0.97 96 -1.74 41.37 0.94 120 -1.52 56.12 0.90 144 0.04 66.52 0.86 168 -0.67 74.69 0.83 192 -3.23 83.57 0.76 216 -8.11 101.63 0.66 240 -12.31 120.78 0.64 264 -19.15 130.60 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.37 -10.79 15.67 17.36 0.99 0.99 48 -7.80 -10.36 25.15 25.99 0.99 0.99 72 -4.56 -6.93 39.35 40.15 0.97 0.97 96 -6.60 58.67 0.95 120 -7.07 78.29 0.91 144 -6.57 92.58 0.88 168 -6.04 105.64 0.84 192 -5.26 121.02 0.79 216 -12.08 143.29 0.70 240 -14.96 169.05 0.66 264 -23.29 185.25 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.50 1.77 1.85 0.94 0.94 48 -0.26 -0.43 2.01 2.07 0.95 0.95 72 -0.15 -0.34 2.40 2.41 0.93 0.93 96 -0.30 3.04 0.91 120 -0.24 3.89 0.85 144 -0.09 4.68 0.78 168 0.23 5.35 0.75 192 0.24 5.71 0.71 216 0.11 6.54 0.60 240 -0.14 7.34 0.57 264 -0.05 7.78 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.17 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.96 48 -0.16 -0.21 1.24 1.26 0.96 0.96 72 -0.16 -0.20 1.77 1.77 0.94 0.94 96 -0.24 2.40 0.90 120 -0.33 3.07 0.85 144 -0.33 3.45 0.82 168 -0.28 3.92 0.76 192 -0.15 4.18 0.73 216 -0.38 4.76 0.64 240 -0.50 5.36 0.63 264 -0.56 5.75 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.22 1.11 1.08 0.94 0.94 48 0.23 0.21 1.38 1.38 0.93 0.93 72 0.26 0.24 1.84 1.74 0.88 0.89 96 0.20 2.22 0.84 120 0.23 2.63 0.78 144 0.22 2.98 0.72 168 0.38 3.28 0.70 192 0.65 3.48 0.64 216 0.88 3.87 0.60 240 1.08 4.16 0.58 264 1.13 4.50 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 90 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -0.83 4.03 4.03 48 -1.07 -0.98 4.61 4.60 72 -1.20 -1.06 5.57 5.60 96 -1.08 6.83 120 -1.20 8.17 144 -1.52 8.89 168 -1.73 9.38 192 -1.74 10.35 216 -1.52 11.06 240 -1.27 11.45 264 -0.97 12.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.88 4.37 4.55 48 -1.08 -1.10 5.69 5.78 72 -1.28 -1.36 7.60 7.60 96 -1.51 9.67 120 -1.67 11.84 144 -1.85 13.35 168 -1.98 14.42 192 -1.99 15.78 216 -2.08 17.42 240 -1.38 18.94 264 -1.53 19.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.12 -1.02 6.20 5.92 48 -1.34 -1.12 8.34 7.90 72 -1.39 -1.22 11.08 10.54 96 -1.49 13.62 120 -1.76 16.99 144 -1.85 18.99 168 -1.86 21.10 192 -1.83 23.57 216 -2.11 25.60 240 -1.60 27.19 264 -1.69 27.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.56 -6.59 10.88 11.94 0.98 0.98 48 -5.17 -8.86 14.98 16.37 0.98 0.97 72 -8.08 -8.95 20.48 22.61 0.97 0.96 96 -12.94 30.18 0.96 120 -15.46 44.60 0.92 144 -16.29 56.60 0.88 168 -11.09 63.13 0.86 192 -10.75 77.12 0.79 216 -7.38 95.06 0.72 240 -9.08 102.60 0.67 264 -9.92 115.32 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.69 -11.08 14.86 15.43 0.99 0.99 48 -12.55 -15.67 21.18 22.99 0.98 0.98 72 -17.09 -18.14 29.99 31.95 0.97 0.97 96 -21.17 41.73 0.95 120 -23.96 61.46 0.92 144 -22.04 82.63 0.88 168 -17.83 98.16 0.86 192 -25.25 117.29 0.78 216 -25.34 132.33 0.72 240 -21.47 147.70 0.70 264 -14.86 168.22 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.25 -12.87 18.25 19.18 0.99 0.99 48 -16.80 -19.20 27.83 28.84 0.98 0.99 72 -22.19 -24.33 39.68 42.00 0.98 0.97 96 -27.92 53.67 0.96 120 -28.81 77.88 0.93 144 -25.51 110.45 0.87 168 -21.17 135.22 0.86 192 -34.53 159.70 0.80 216 -36.70 172.29 0.74 240 -35.35 196.31 0.73 264 -18.60 229.14 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.47 1.43 1.37 0.90 0.90 48 -0.70 -0.63 1.58 1.55 0.91 0.89 72 -0.79 -0.78 1.83 1.84 0.89 0.89 96 -0.73 2.09 0.87 120 -0.70 2.66 0.81 144 -0.54 3.25 0.76 168 -0.67 3.67 0.72 192 -1.16 4.09 0.70 216 -1.37 4.33 0.67 240 -0.92 4.38 0.68 264 -0.55 4.91 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.20 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.97 48 -0.30 -0.32 1.38 1.29 0.95 0.95 72 -0.44 -0.47 1.78 1.78 0.94 0.93 96 -0.43 2.20 0.91 120 -0.40 2.97 0.83 144 -0.35 3.63 0.82 168 -0.40 4.09 0.79 192 -0.79 4.83 0.73 216 -0.88 5.16 0.67 240 -0.66 5.63 0.65 264 -0.11 6.64 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.41 0.34 1.18 1.16 0.94 0.94 48 0.28 0.23 1.43 1.46 0.93 0.92 72 0.28 0.14 1.79 1.80 0.90 0.90 96 0.03 2.32 0.85 120 0.19 2.97 0.77 144 0.37 3.35 0.74 168 0.35 3.41 0.73 192 0.15 3.96 0.61 216 -0.20 4.40 0.50 240 -0.65 4.53 0.51 264 -0.50 4.53 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.71 4.43 4.27 48 -0.89 -0.81 5.08 4.91 72 -0.86 -0.86 5.69 5.69 96 -0.65 6.56 120 -0.49 8.17 144 -0.63 9.06 168 -0.85 9.78 192 -0.74 11.18 216 -1.22 12.22 240 -1.13 12.32 264 -0.74 13.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 58 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.59 4.82 4.90 48 -0.62 -0.70 6.17 6.14 72 -0.64 -0.76 7.59 7.98 96 -0.41 9.92 120 -0.21 12.67 144 -0.50 14.64 168 -1.34 16.06 192 -1.44 17.95 216 -2.06 19.71 240 -1.78 20.21 264 -1.33 21.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.47 5.41 5.45 48 -0.56 -0.45 6.82 6.91 72 -0.47 -0.43 8.76 9.39 96 -0.33 11.90 120 0.09 15.81 144 -0.35 20.20 168 -1.49 22.90 192 -1.26 25.98 216 -2.06 28.53 240 -1.67 29.99 264 -0.80 31.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.25 0.70 11.27 9.33 0.97 0.97 48 3.56 2.17 14.30 12.18 0.97 0.97 72 4.40 3.10 17.61 15.76 0.95 0.96 96 3.31 19.59 0.94 120 2.44 25.53 0.89 144 3.26 30.80 0.82 168 3.23 34.94 0.74 192 3.54 40.27 0.66 216 2.76 47.06 0.61 240 -0.71 51.88 0.59 264 -3.14 55.26 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.94 -1.35 12.52 13.31 0.98 0.98 48 -0.19 0.19 17.28 17.93 0.98 0.98 72 0.67 1.42 24.06 24.23 0.96 0.96 96 0.55 31.45 0.94 120 -1.68 40.57 0.92 144 -2.35 49.76 0.87 168 -4.07 58.01 0.80 192 -4.45 66.95 0.72 216 -5.04 76.10 0.65 240 -9.99 83.02 0.62 264 -16.54 89.97 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 99 12 UTC = 102 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.97 -3.02 16.46 17.36 0.98 0.98 48 -2.16 -2.98 22.86 22.64 0.98 0.98 72 -2.68 -1.98 30.98 31.28 0.98 0.98 96 -4.55 40.92 0.96 120 -7.39 51.75 0.95 144 -9.15 61.76 0.92 168 -11.99 74.58 0.87 192 -12.88 88.17 0.80 216 -10.77 101.14 0.73 240 -12.27 113.76 0.69 264 -18.78 124.51 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 99 12 UTC = 101 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.28 1.85 1.81 0.90 0.90 48 -0.30 -0.23 2.07 2.00 0.91 0.91 72 -0.23 -0.15 2.30 2.23 0.91 0.90 96 -0.12 2.49 0.88 120 -0.07 2.84 0.84 144 0.02 3.23 0.79 168 -0.03 3.73 0.74 192 -0.02 4.28 0.66 216 -0.06 4.75 0.60 240 -0.15 5.06 0.55 264 -0.41 5.54 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 109 12 UTC = 109 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.21 1.04 1.07 0.94 0.94 48 -0.23 -0.26 1.29 1.31 0.95 0.95 72 -0.26 -0.27 1.59 1.60 0.95 0.95 96 -0.37 1.98 0.93 120 -0.45 2.34 0.91 144 -0.64 2.70 0.87 168 -0.77 3.14 0.81 192 -0.91 3.76 0.72 216 -0.87 4.18 0.66 240 -0.89 4.41 0.61 264 -1.08 4.69 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 128 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.30 1.33 1.29 0.91 0.92 48 0.21 0.30 1.63 1.55 0.91 0.92 72 0.16 0.31 2.01 1.94 0.90 0.91 96 0.37 2.36 0.89 120 0.44 2.76 0.85 144 0.57 3.10 0.81 168 0.59 3.32 0.78 192 0.65 3.62 0.74 216 0.82 3.94 0.71 240 1.10 4.14 0.70 264 1.25 4.28 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.08 -1.01 4.01 3.73 48 -1.24 -1.15 4.46 4.08 72 -1.29 -1.15 5.05 4.59 96 -1.24 5.19 120 -1.39 5.88 144 -1.47 6.56 168 -1.58 7.10 192 -1.75 7.74 216 -1.48 8.54 240 -1.35 8.75 264 -1.40 8.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 107 12 UTC = 108 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.32 4.70 4.73 48 -0.80 -0.52 5.70 5.68 72 -0.95 -0.63 6.83 6.62 96 -0.78 7.91 120 -0.89 9.13 144 -0.93 10.55 168 -1.01 11.63 192 -0.72 12.96 216 -0.38 13.94 240 -0.12 14.21 264 0.15 14.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 123 12 UTC = 124 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.85 5.12 4.96 48 -1.20 -1.24 6.32 6.09 72 -1.54 -1.46 7.90 7.49 96 -1.76 9.20 120 -1.92 10.85 144 -1.99 12.75 168 -1.86 14.53 192 -1.42 16.90 216 -1.01 18.96 240 -0.68 19.42 264 -0.36 20.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 125 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.61 -7.19 9.13 12.33 0.96 0.98 48 -6.18 -7.33 11.26 14.00 0.97 0.98 72 -7.62 -9.05 14.83 18.86 0.96 0.96 96 -10.42 24.98 0.92 120 -11.58 31.77 0.87 144 -9.71 38.65 0.78 168 -9.78 42.46 0.72 192 -10.16 47.00 0.64 216 -9.92 50.01 0.62 240 -13.12 51.31 0.64 264 -13.81 51.52 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.46 -13.14 13.03 18.14 0.96 0.98 48 -7.93 -11.86 14.26 19.02 0.97 0.98 72 -7.76 -11.93 18.39 23.06 0.96 0.98 96 -13.24 30.69 0.95 120 -14.63 40.01 0.88 144 -12.31 52.63 0.83 168 -11.26 58.05 0.75 192 -13.60 69.85 0.68 216 -13.81 74.02 0.61 240 -18.07 78.50 0.58 264 -19.50 79.28 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.63 -12.83 14.73 19.18 0.97 0.97 48 -8.40 -11.94 17.58 22.46 0.98 0.98 72 -7.91 -11.18 25.02 28.16 0.97 0.98 96 -12.31 41.22 0.95 120 -14.90 56.79 0.88 144 -14.19 76.61 0.81 168 -10.94 87.53 0.76 192 -15.83 104.64 0.69 216 -17.50 110.79 0.59 240 -20.11 118.40 0.55 264 -20.68 120.89 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.32 1.20 1.31 0.84 0.84 48 0.14 -0.22 1.40 1.42 0.89 0.90 72 0.24 -0.10 1.66 1.58 0.90 0.91 96 -0.08 1.92 0.89 120 -0.15 2.41 0.81 144 -0.13 2.89 0.76 168 0.01 3.32 0.71 192 -0.12 3.77 0.61 216 -0.25 4.41 0.51 240 -0.30 4.61 0.53 264 -0.59 4.53 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.04 0.89 0.81 0.84 0.90 48 0.07 0.09 1.07 1.00 0.87 0.92 72 0.12 0.18 1.23 1.23 0.86 0.91 96 0.16 1.62 0.86 120 0.11 1.90 0.82 144 0.12 2.36 0.76 168 0.23 2.61 0.73 192 0.00 2.83 0.63 216 -0.05 2.87 0.60 240 -0.08 3.02 0.59 264 -0.01 3.34 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.09 0.86 0.94 0.88 0.90 48 0.03 -0.02 1.03 1.13 0.88 0.92 72 0.02 0.02 1.29 1.36 0.89 0.92 96 0.14 1.74 0.85 120 0.13 1.99 0.82 144 -0.01 2.47 0.77 168 0.03 2.50 0.75 192 0.08 2.87 0.69 216 0.04 2.95 0.64 240 0.15 3.31 0.60 264 0.14 3.46 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.74 3.90 3.86 48 -0.34 -0.76 4.42 4.50 72 -0.38 -0.73 5.07 5.28 96 -0.71 6.03 120 -0.53 7.03 144 -0.67 7.81 168 -0.80 8.48 192 -0.73 9.57 216 -0.68 9.12 240 -0.52 9.76 264 -0.71 9.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 16 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.54 4.27 4.31 48 -0.84 -0.61 5.13 5.12 72 -0.74 -0.47 6.27 6.53 96 -0.34 7.67 120 -0.17 9.27 144 -0.32 10.36 168 -0.32 11.22 192 -0.29 12.87 216 -0.02 13.68 240 0.36 14.92 264 -0.03 14.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 17 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -1.02 5.43 5.47 48 -1.05 -1.25 6.74 6.79 72 -1.19 -1.75 8.38 8.74 96 -1.70 11.16 120 -1.39 13.81 144 -1.92 16.95 168 -1.91 18.34 192 -1.57 20.26 216 -1.30 21.85 240 -0.57 22.65 264 -0.69 22.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 17 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.08 -4.77 10.13 10.68 0.73 0.73 48 -3.83 -4.56 10.37 11.01 0.82 0.81 72 -4.22 -4.93 10.97 11.57 0.84 0.83 96 -5.17 12.12 0.81 120 -5.08 12.60 0.79 144 -4.93 13.11 0.76 168 -5.30 13.57 0.77 192 -5.95 14.54 0.74 216 -5.95 15.03 0.73 240 -6.07 15.28 0.70 264 -6.66 15.95 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 67 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.97 -11.40 15.60 15.76 0.65 0.69 48 -12.39 -12.02 16.13 16.38 0.80 0.80 72 -13.07 -12.73 16.96 17.14 0.84 0.84 96 -12.96 17.59 0.84 120 -13.04 17.86 0.83 144 -12.70 18.23 0.80 168 -12.83 18.80 0.77 192 -13.30 20.08 0.75 216 -13.18 20.82 0.73 240 -13.28 21.53 0.70 264 -13.80 22.11 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.78 -11.19 17.78 17.22 0.62 0.65 48 -12.02 -11.48 18.57 18.03 0.75 0.78 72 -12.72 -11.88 19.75 19.35 0.79 0.81 96 -12.01 20.46 0.81 120 -11.91 21.59 0.80 144 -11.55 22.38 0.77 168 -11.45 23.58 0.75 192 -11.31 25.20 0.71 216 -10.99 26.10 0.70 240 -11.21 26.86 0.68 264 -11.78 27.99 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.20 1.05 1.07 0.44 0.46 48 -0.25 -0.23 1.11 1.10 0.51 0.56 72 -0.24 -0.23 1.14 1.13 0.55 0.60 96 -0.23 1.15 0.63 120 -0.21 1.17 0.65 144 -0.16 1.24 0.65 168 -0.15 1.30 0.64 192 -0.15 1.38 0.61 216 -0.16 1.47 0.57 240 -0.12 1.54 0.54 264 -0.10 1.60 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.06 0.81 0.83 0.45 0.57 48 -0.01 -0.10 0.85 0.89 0.57 0.66 72 -0.04 -0.11 0.90 0.94 0.62 0.68 96 -0.12 1.01 0.67 120 -0.12 1.07 0.65 144 -0.11 1.14 0.60 168 -0.09 1.19 0.58 192 -0.08 1.19 0.57 216 -0.08 1.26 0.53 240 -0.10 1.29 0.51 264 -0.11 1.32 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.12 0.72 0.68 0.53 0.61 48 0.14 0.14 0.78 0.78 0.63 0.67 72 0.17 0.17 0.83 0.85 0.64 0.67 96 0.19 0.90 0.65 120 0.19 0.93 0.63 144 0.18 0.96 0.62 168 0.17 1.00 0.61 192 0.17 1.03 0.60 216 0.18 1.07 0.56 240 0.19 1.08 0.55 264 0.20 1.10 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.80 3.69 3.62 48 -0.92 -0.92 4.03 3.93 72 -0.93 -0.88 4.22 4.14 96 -0.90 4.34 120 -0.95 4.60 144 -1.02 4.87 168 -1.10 5.03 192 -1.11 5.29 216 -1.07 5.49 240 -0.88 5.73 264 -0.82 5.83 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.01 -0.79 4.17 3.94 48 -1.14 -0.89 4.60 4.41 72 -1.27 -0.99 5.03 4.83 96 -1.01 5.21 120 -0.99 5.57 144 -1.11 5.91 168 -1.19 6.33 192 -1.29 6.79 216 -1.31 7.30 240 -1.28 7.68 264 -1.18 7.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.94 -1.01 5.14 5.01 48 -1.05 -1.15 6.20 6.21 72 -1.16 -1.31 6.93 7.13 96 -1.59 8.01 120 -1.85 8.55 144 -2.14 9.04 168 -2.20 9.53 192 -2.21 10.18 216 -2.23 10.72 240 -2.33 11.07 264 -2.37 11.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 68 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.44 -2.04 10.53 10.34 0.98 0.98 48 -0.86 -1.69 14.62 14.30 0.98 0.98 72 -0.45 -0.84 20.30 20.42 0.97 0.97 96 -1.19 27.87 0.94 120 -1.77 38.22 0.90 144 -1.96 47.11 0.86 168 -1.20 53.16 0.82 192 -2.06 60.82 0.77 216 -2.27 70.49 0.71 240 -4.17 76.45 0.68 264 -6.36 83.37 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 321 12 UTC = 309 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.29 -5.64 13.30 13.84 0.99 0.99 48 -5.27 -5.95 19.66 20.20 0.98 0.98 72 -5.30 -5.34 28.74 29.29 0.97 0.97 96 -5.71 40.10 0.95 120 -7.17 54.52 0.91 144 -7.21 69.40 0.87 168 -6.58 80.34 0.82 192 -8.01 92.32 0.77 216 -9.67 105.37 0.71 240 -12.50 118.03 0.67 264 -15.18 128.99 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 338 12 UTC = 324 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.70 -7.66 17.17 17.86 0.99 0.99 48 -7.67 -8.97 25.97 25.96 0.99 0.99 72 -8.44 -8.89 37.66 38.35 0.98 0.98 96 -10.31 52.15 0.96 120 -11.80 69.88 0.93 144 -12.15 89.83 0.89 168 -11.21 106.89 0.85 192 -12.42 124.06 0.81 216 -14.32 139.89 0.76 240 -16.47 159.80 0.71 264 -18.18 177.16 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 339 12 UTC = 325 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.40 1.71 1.71 0.93 0.92 48 -0.41 -0.40 1.92 1.91 0.94 0.93 72 -0.40 -0.39 2.22 2.21 0.92 0.92 96 -0.36 2.61 0.90 120 -0.32 3.21 0.86 144 -0.23 3.87 0.81 168 -0.17 4.45 0.76 192 -0.21 4.93 0.71 216 -0.26 5.50 0.65 240 -0.29 5.92 0.61 264 -0.32 6.35 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 348 12 UTC = 329 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.18 0.98 1.01 0.96 0.96 48 -0.22 -0.24 1.30 1.30 0.96 0.96 72 -0.27 -0.27 1.72 1.73 0.95 0.95 96 -0.31 2.20 0.92 120 -0.36 2.75 0.89 144 -0.44 3.24 0.85 168 -0.47 3.71 0.80 192 -0.51 4.19 0.75 216 -0.58 4.64 0.70 240 -0.62 5.07 0.65 264 -0.64 5.56 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 379 12 UTC = 359 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.28 1.22 1.19 0.94 0.94 48 0.25 0.26 1.52 1.49 0.93 0.93 72 0.25 0.26 1.94 1.91 0.90 0.91 96 0.25 2.39 0.88 120 0.32 2.85 0.83 144 0.42 3.26 0.79 168 0.45 3.49 0.77 192 0.51 3.78 0.72 216 0.56 4.12 0.68 240 0.65 4.29 0.66 264 0.74 4.46 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 377 12 UTC = 356 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.82 4.10 3.99 48 -1.03 -0.92 4.68 4.54 72 -1.09 -0.96 5.45 5.30 96 -0.97 6.23 120 -1.02 7.36 144 -1.18 8.19 168 -1.30 8.75 192 -1.31 9.71 216 -1.22 10.45 240 -1.12 10.68 264 -1.03 11.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 336 12 UTC = 319 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.60 4.55 4.65 48 -0.84 -0.77 5.79 5.83 72 -0.96 -0.91 7.31 7.36 96 -0.95 9.14 120 -1.00 11.03 144 -1.12 12.72 168 -1.28 13.92 192 -1.20 15.34 216 -1.20 16.53 240 -0.85 17.20 264 -0.71 17.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 367 12 UTC = 349 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.74 5.34 5.26 48 -0.98 -0.92 7.00 6.81 72 -1.12 -1.06 9.09 8.97 96 -1.24 11.32 120 -1.27 14.10 144 -1.42 16.68 168 -1.51 18.94 192 -1.42 21.24 216 -1.46 23.17 240 -1.17 24.19 264 -0.95 25.16 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 368 12 UTC = 350 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.49 -2.81 8.53 9.02 0.96 0.97 48 -3.93 -3.12 11.00 11.28 0.97 0.97 72 -4.90 -3.69 14.77 15.05 0.96 0.96 96 -4.59 20.72 0.94 120 -5.01 27.52 0.89 144 -4.08 33.80 0.82 168 -3.78 36.95 0.78 192 -4.41 41.21 0.74 216 -4.95 44.33 0.72 240 -6.02 47.11 0.70 264 -5.74 47.21 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.44 -7.11 11.35 12.72 0.96 0.97 48 -5.86 -5.79 13.40 14.82 0.97 0.98 72 -5.19 -4.48 18.30 19.46 0.96 0.97 96 -4.95 28.09 0.94 120 -4.88 38.74 0.88 144 -3.74 48.31 0.82 168 -2.97 54.84 0.78 192 -4.63 63.29 0.72 216 -4.95 66.55 0.70 240 -5.99 68.82 0.69 264 -5.29 69.97 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.22 -7.44 14.82 17.27 0.97 0.98 48 -7.27 -7.55 19.22 21.77 0.97 0.98 72 -6.07 -5.40 26.91 27.94 0.96 0.97 96 -4.16 40.67 0.95 120 -3.46 56.80 0.88 144 -2.47 70.89 0.82 168 0.07 81.84 0.78 192 -1.69 92.79 0.72 216 -0.33 98.46 0.70 240 0.71 104.44 0.67 264 1.80 106.94 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.44 1.57 1.50 0.84 0.87 48 -0.16 -0.30 1.73 1.60 0.89 0.88 72 -0.02 -0.12 1.96 1.78 0.89 0.89 96 -0.10 2.07 0.87 120 -0.11 2.43 0.82 144 -0.11 2.87 0.76 168 -0.08 3.22 0.70 192 -0.20 3.62 0.65 216 -0.17 3.96 0.60 240 -0.22 4.04 0.59 264 -0.34 4.07 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.16 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.89 48 0.08 0.18 1.09 1.07 0.89 0.92 72 0.12 0.22 1.30 1.32 0.88 0.90 96 0.26 1.68 0.86 120 0.31 2.09 0.81 144 0.35 2.46 0.75 168 0.41 2.69 0.71 192 0.35 2.86 0.66 216 0.47 3.00 0.64 240 0.48 3.11 0.62 264 0.54 3.32 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.08 0.94 0.97 0.91 0.91 48 -0.07 -0.18 1.19 1.21 0.90 0.92 72 -0.06 -0.17 1.52 1.52 0.89 0.90 96 -0.06 1.92 0.85 120 -0.06 2.37 0.77 144 -0.08 2.63 0.74 168 -0.04 2.72 0.72 192 0.05 2.95 0.66 216 0.02 3.19 0.61 240 0.15 3.35 0.58 264 0.18 3.27 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.96 4.13 4.06 48 -0.55 -1.00 4.51 4.47 72 -0.62 -0.92 5.08 5.08 96 -0.85 5.69 120 -0.71 6.35 144 -0.78 7.09 168 -0.87 7.70 192 -0.86 8.27 216 -0.92 8.28 240 -0.78 8.77 264 -0.66 8.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.55 4.02 4.11 48 -0.60 -0.62 4.82 4.84 72 -0.56 -0.57 5.90 6.04 96 -0.48 7.22 120 -0.47 8.55 144 -0.64 9.61 168 -0.76 10.46 192 -0.79 11.49 216 -0.65 12.19 240 -0.41 12.73 264 -0.56 12.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.72 5.35 5.22 48 -0.94 -1.07 6.78 6.61 72 -1.04 -1.26 8.60 8.24 96 -1.25 10.27 120 -0.90 12.64 144 -1.20 15.05 168 -1.21 16.24 192 -0.97 17.75 216 -0.75 19.40 240 -0.55 19.83 264 -0.84 20.36 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 44 ---------------------------------------------------------