VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY FEBRUARY 2015 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.04 0.99 1.03 0.99 0.99 16.0 16.7 48 0.07 0.06 1.72 1.75 0.98 0.98 24.6 25.5 72 0.08 0.07 2.63 2.62 0.96 0.96 32.9 33.7 96 0.08 3.77 0.92 42.4 120 0.05 5.10 0.86 51.0 144 0.01 6.46 0.77 58.5 168 -0.05 7.87 0.66 65.6 192 -0.10 9.06 0.55 70.8 216 -0.04 9.91 0.47 74.5 240 0.00 10.52 0.40 77.1 264 -0.03 11.16 0.34 80.5 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.57 7.22 7.44 1.00 1.00 9.1 9.2 48 -0.61 -0.79 15.00 15.35 0.99 0.99 17.0 17.0 72 -0.82 -1.04 25.21 24.94 0.98 0.98 24.7 24.6 96 -1.32 37.85 0.94 32.4 120 -1.95 52.71 0.89 40.0 144 -2.90 68.03 0.82 46.6 168 -3.81 83.24 0.73 52.5 192 -3.82 96.77 0.63 57.1 216 -3.20 107.47 0.54 61.2 240 -2.80 115.23 0.47 63.4 264 -3.12 123.39 0.40 66.4 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.24 9.57 9.75 1.00 1.00 7.3 7.4 48 -0.82 -1.04 18.88 19.40 0.99 0.99 12.6 12.7 72 -1.61 -1.84 31.04 30.79 0.98 0.98 18.4 18.2 96 -2.41 46.50 0.95 24.6 120 -3.10 66.93 0.90 31.6 144 -3.66 87.01 0.83 37.7 168 -4.22 106.74 0.75 43.2 192 -3.49 125.21 0.65 47.9 216 -2.31 140.50 0.56 52.1 240 -1.65 152.75 0.48 54.7 264 -2.24 163.34 0.40 57.6 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.50 0.50 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.05 0.92 0.93 0.98 0.98 72 -0.09 -0.09 1.38 1.38 0.95 0.95 96 -0.13 1.91 0.90 120 -0.17 2.52 0.83 144 -0.19 3.10 0.74 168 -0.22 3.65 0.64 192 -0.21 4.13 0.54 216 -0.20 4.49 0.45 240 -0.21 4.78 0.38 264 -0.22 4.98 0.32 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.04 0.67 0.66 0.99 0.99 48 0.02 0.03 1.11 1.11 0.96 0.96 72 0.03 0.04 1.57 1.57 0.92 0.92 96 0.06 2.04 0.86 120 0.10 2.54 0.78 144 0.17 2.99 0.70 168 0.22 3.43 0.60 192 0.27 3.76 0.52 216 0.31 4.07 0.44 240 0.34 4.28 0.38 264 0.35 4.51 0.32 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 2.32 2.34 48 -0.13 -0.13 4.25 4.29 72 -0.21 -0.20 6.18 6.18 96 -0.26 8.17 120 -0.29 10.22 144 -0.25 12.11 168 -0.26 13.89 192 -0.23 15.27 216 -0.28 16.51 240 -0.34 17.29 264 -0.35 18.19 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.13 3.32 3.37 48 -0.27 -0.25 5.42 5.47 72 -0.33 -0.30 7.66 7.66 96 -0.33 10.24 120 -0.37 13.28 144 -0.34 16.01 168 -0.38 18.53 192 -0.45 20.69 216 -0.53 22.76 240 -0.63 24.08 264 -0.76 25.32 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.35 3.26 3.10 0.98 0.98 27.9 26.8 48 -0.59 -0.58 5.20 4.59 0.94 0.95 36.8 35.0 72 -0.93 -0.83 6.37 5.93 0.90 0.92 42.1 40.5 96 -1.17 6.84 0.89 44.2 120 -1.32 7.73 0.87 47.5 144 -1.30 8.55 0.83 50.4 168 -1.18 9.56 0.79 53.8 192 -1.23 10.79 0.73 56.6 216 -1.80 11.92 0.68 58.9 240 -2.03 12.74 0.64 61.3 264 -1.87 13.54 0.60 63.6 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.01 1.05 5.15 5.04 0.99 0.99 19.1 19.0 48 0.27 0.29 8.02 7.97 0.96 0.97 26.8 26.7 72 -0.30 -0.40 10.60 10.52 0.94 0.94 32.2 32.0 96 -0.89 12.70 0.91 36.1 120 -1.06 14.99 0.88 39.9 144 -0.82 17.11 0.84 43.3 168 -0.21 19.34 0.79 46.9 192 0.65 21.47 0.74 50.3 216 0.83 23.29 0.69 53.2 240 1.42 25.20 0.63 55.9 264 1.95 27.26 0.57 58.2 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.45 0.47 0.97 0.97 48 0.04 0.02 0.74 0.75 0.91 0.91 72 0.07 0.07 0.93 0.92 0.85 0.87 96 0.09 1.04 0.83 120 0.12 1.13 0.81 144 0.14 1.23 0.77 168 0.16 1.35 0.72 192 0.16 1.49 0.66 216 0.16 1.63 0.59 240 0.18 1.72 0.54 264 0.19 1.81 0.48 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.40 0.37 0.93 0.94 48 0.00 -0.01 0.57 0.54 0.85 0.87 72 -0.02 -0.03 0.69 0.67 0.78 0.79 96 -0.03 0.77 0.72 120 -0.04 0.86 0.64 144 -0.03 0.94 0.58 168 -0.02 1.01 0.51 192 0.01 1.08 0.45 216 0.05 1.15 0.39 240 0.07 1.23 0.32 264 0.09 1.30 0.26 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.11 1.47 1.42 48 -0.19 -0.24 2.17 2.11 72 -0.27 -0.31 2.66 2.60 96 -0.34 3.01 120 -0.36 3.36 144 -0.39 3.67 168 -0.39 3.99 192 -0.35 4.34 216 -0.28 4.66 240 -0.24 4.94 264 -0.22 5.14 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.37 3.24 3.19 48 -0.67 -0.67 4.83 4.77 72 -0.93 -0.94 5.99 5.93 96 -1.16 6.88 120 -1.28 7.70 144 -1.39 8.37 168 -1.55 9.08 192 -1.67 9.82 216 -1.73 10.51 240 -1.73 11.08 264 -1.74 11.65 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.01 0.84 0.82 0.99 0.99 12.3 12.2 48 -0.06 -0.04 1.62 1.54 0.98 0.98 21.1 20.6 72 -0.06 -0.05 2.43 2.34 0.95 0.95 28.6 28.1 96 -0.04 3.31 0.91 35.2 120 -0.03 4.38 0.84 42.4 144 0.00 5.36 0.76 48.6 168 0.03 6.41 0.65 54.0 192 0.07 7.39 0.53 58.9 216 0.12 7.95 0.45 61.7 240 0.13 8.42 0.38 64.4 264 0.13 9.06 0.31 66.3 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.91 1.96 7.53 7.43 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.5 48 2.98 3.05 15.02 14.61 0.99 0.99 17.4 17.0 72 3.82 3.83 24.02 23.32 0.97 0.97 24.9 24.2 96 4.49 34.13 0.93 31.5 120 5.02 46.19 0.87 38.7 144 5.60 59.10 0.79 45.2 168 6.17 71.76 0.70 51.1 192 6.78 83.21 0.59 56.2 216 7.15 90.99 0.50 59.6 240 7.02 97.55 0.42 62.4 264 6.73 106.42 0.32 65.2 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.91 0.99 9.68 9.65 1.00 1.00 8.7 8.7 48 0.69 0.83 19.90 19.17 0.99 0.99 15.4 15.2 72 0.41 0.58 32.09 31.38 0.97 0.97 22.3 21.9 96 0.40 45.84 0.93 28.8 120 0.22 61.78 0.87 35.7 144 0.36 81.06 0.78 42.4 168 0.83 98.91 0.68 48.7 192 1.56 114.36 0.57 53.9 216 2.26 125.29 0.48 57.4 240 1.85 135.07 0.40 60.2 264 1.97 148.53 0.29 63.1 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.04 0.47 0.46 0.99 0.99 48 0.03 0.04 0.89 0.87 0.96 0.97 72 0.03 0.03 1.31 1.29 0.92 0.93 96 0.04 1.74 0.86 120 0.04 2.22 0.77 144 0.04 2.72 0.66 168 0.05 3.12 0.55 192 0.05 3.46 0.44 216 0.06 3.70 0.36 240 0.05 3.90 0.29 264 0.07 4.13 0.21 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 0.60 0.60 0.98 0.98 48 -0.17 -0.18 1.09 1.08 0.95 0.95 72 -0.25 -0.26 1.56 1.53 0.89 0.90 96 -0.32 2.01 0.82 120 -0.38 2.49 0.72 144 -0.43 2.90 0.62 168 -0.43 3.28 0.50 192 -0.41 3.58 0.40 216 -0.40 3.74 0.34 240 -0.40 3.95 0.26 264 -0.38 4.11 0.20 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.15 2.05 2.03 48 -0.26 -0.25 3.79 3.70 72 -0.34 -0.34 5.40 5.31 96 -0.39 6.92 120 -0.45 8.60 144 -0.47 10.18 168 -0.52 11.64 192 -0.59 12.89 216 -0.68 13.82 240 -0.75 14.50 264 -0.75 15.38 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.22 3.11 3.13 48 -0.43 -0.42 5.58 5.48 72 -0.59 -0.56 7.98 7.93 96 -0.66 10.29 120 -0.73 12.82 144 -0.77 15.52 168 -0.77 17.88 192 -0.83 20.00 216 -1.00 21.48 240 -1.04 22.66 264 -1.00 24.02 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.19 -2.83 8.12 8.49 0.99 0.99 48 -3.07 -3.43 11.79 12.07 0.99 0.99 72 -2.64 -2.16 18.13 17.37 0.96 0.97 96 -0.10 25.45 0.93 120 0.10 35.49 0.87 144 3.22 41.78 0.81 168 4.26 52.15 0.73 192 0.89 59.06 0.72 216 -0.28 65.84 0.70 240 2.81 66.01 0.68 264 3.58 74.06 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.13 -6.97 11.49 12.15 0.99 0.99 48 -7.35 -8.33 17.46 18.24 0.99 0.99 72 -6.85 -7.31 27.92 26.17 0.97 0.97 96 -6.18 38.57 0.95 120 -6.77 56.60 0.89 144 -4.34 72.11 0.82 168 0.07 85.44 0.74 192 1.12 100.61 0.71 216 1.21 109.68 0.64 240 8.37 113.83 0.63 264 9.26 119.74 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.51 -8.70 15.21 15.87 0.99 0.99 48 -10.25 -12.14 24.71 25.35 0.99 0.99 72 -10.62 -11.84 36.90 34.95 0.97 0.98 96 -11.25 50.74 0.95 120 -13.02 77.72 0.87 144 -11.02 100.69 0.82 168 -5.90 118.69 0.76 192 -3.70 139.46 0.73 216 -3.57 153.15 0.66 240 1.24 158.49 0.61 264 1.72 165.14 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.57 1.87 2.06 0.94 0.95 48 -0.32 -0.52 2.14 2.28 0.95 0.96 72 -0.14 -0.44 2.52 2.67 0.93 0.93 96 -0.43 3.22 0.91 120 -0.41 4.12 0.86 144 -0.52 4.91 0.79 168 -0.24 5.74 0.68 192 0.17 6.74 0.68 216 0.42 7.17 0.61 240 0.81 7.26 0.54 264 0.83 7.68 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.13 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.96 48 -0.16 -0.22 1.26 1.23 0.97 0.97 72 -0.23 -0.27 1.74 1.62 0.94 0.94 96 -0.35 2.28 0.90 120 -0.45 3.12 0.83 144 -0.47 3.81 0.76 168 -0.32 4.27 0.72 192 -0.20 4.92 0.70 216 -0.18 5.25 0.62 240 0.02 5.27 0.57 264 -0.02 5.43 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.29 0.25 1.17 1.13 0.95 0.95 48 0.28 0.24 1.46 1.46 0.95 0.95 72 0.25 0.21 1.90 1.79 0.92 0.93 96 0.25 2.25 0.91 120 0.24 2.90 0.85 144 0.05 3.34 0.79 168 -0.06 3.71 0.71 192 -0.11 4.22 0.68 216 -0.16 4.52 0.61 240 -0.43 4.53 0.60 264 -0.47 4.75 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.88 3.96 4.05 48 -0.94 -1.05 4.48 4.57 72 -0.99 -0.96 5.41 5.48 96 -0.87 6.47 120 -0.89 8.06 144 -0.68 9.04 168 -0.91 10.23 192 -0.93 11.02 216 -0.96 11.35 240 -1.17 11.11 264 -1.29 12.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.68 4.36 4.40 48 -0.83 -0.86 5.63 5.56 72 -1.09 -1.02 7.32 7.14 96 -1.06 9.01 120 -1.01 11.54 144 -1.25 13.34 168 -1.49 15.39 192 -1.77 16.66 216 -2.08 18.18 240 -2.55 17.94 264 -2.63 18.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.06 -1.22 5.74 5.84 48 -1.31 -1.62 7.49 7.70 72 -1.42 -1.58 9.83 9.72 96 -1.66 12.29 120 -2.01 16.49 144 -2.36 20.06 168 -2.67 22.65 192 -2.64 24.63 216 -3.34 27.18 240 -3.84 26.72 264 -3.86 27.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.48 -5.41 10.63 11.49 0.98 0.98 48 -6.86 -7.85 15.07 16.48 0.98 0.97 72 -6.22 -8.92 20.05 22.13 0.97 0.97 96 -7.68 27.16 0.96 120 -8.25 37.57 0.91 144 -9.89 53.74 0.89 168 -6.34 69.07 0.85 192 4.84 80.30 0.74 216 12.42 93.91 0.62 240 17.01 99.08 0.58 264 20.91 109.14 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.85 -9.64 14.94 14.95 0.99 0.99 48 -13.08 -13.59 20.67 22.71 0.98 0.98 72 -13.38 -15.60 28.17 31.99 0.97 0.97 96 -15.79 41.43 0.96 120 -15.75 54.12 0.94 144 -18.62 75.94 0.90 168 -16.93 104.32 0.83 192 -4.84 119.23 0.77 216 4.88 135.78 0.67 240 11.18 147.24 0.61 264 24.09 156.85 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -12.10 -11.20 18.04 18.30 0.99 0.99 48 -16.05 -16.44 25.97 27.70 0.99 0.99 72 -18.48 -20.74 36.37 39.10 0.98 0.98 96 -23.18 54.62 0.97 120 -22.54 72.03 0.95 144 -25.98 100.05 0.90 168 -24.15 139.72 0.83 192 -10.03 160.44 0.79 216 1.89 188.09 0.68 240 16.56 208.23 0.59 264 36.19 215.64 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.38 1.35 1.28 0.90 0.89 48 -0.67 -0.52 1.51 1.48 0.92 0.91 72 -0.71 -0.56 1.71 1.76 0.90 0.88 96 -0.59 2.13 0.85 120 -0.56 2.46 0.82 144 -0.62 2.93 0.77 168 -0.67 3.50 0.72 192 -0.61 3.67 0.69 216 -0.55 4.16 0.61 240 -0.59 4.61 0.56 264 -0.27 4.82 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.23 0.90 0.91 0.97 0.96 48 -0.24 -0.32 1.18 1.18 0.96 0.96 72 -0.30 -0.38 1.52 1.55 0.94 0.94 96 -0.58 2.14 0.91 120 -0.53 2.61 0.88 144 -0.66 3.27 0.82 168 -0.82 4.23 0.71 192 -0.73 4.59 0.70 216 -0.56 5.34 0.60 240 -0.15 5.90 0.48 264 0.57 5.80 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.33 0.31 1.21 1.16 0.93 0.92 48 0.21 0.21 1.46 1.40 0.91 0.91 72 0.04 0.01 1.80 1.84 0.90 0.89 96 0.01 2.24 0.85 120 0.03 2.61 0.81 144 0.15 3.22 0.71 168 0.43 3.85 0.64 192 0.22 4.15 0.61 216 -0.05 4.50 0.54 240 -0.08 4.57 0.55 264 -0.15 4.49 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.62 4.16 4.21 48 -0.76 -0.63 4.77 4.80 72 -0.81 -0.68 5.57 5.62 96 -0.68 6.36 120 -0.64 7.33 144 -0.81 8.89 168 -0.93 10.45 192 -1.05 11.33 216 -0.89 12.99 240 -0.70 13.62 264 -0.04 14.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.64 4.50 4.68 48 -0.44 -0.59 5.70 5.85 72 -0.61 -0.82 7.14 7.73 96 -1.10 9.42 120 -1.46 11.24 144 -1.36 13.75 168 -1.25 16.87 192 -1.54 18.29 216 -1.20 21.14 240 -0.63 22.88 264 0.30 24.24 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.66 4.95 5.02 48 -0.62 -0.68 6.32 6.41 72 -0.92 -0.99 8.45 9.01 96 -1.30 12.09 120 -1.65 15.36 144 -1.55 18.97 168 -1.25 24.11 192 -1.83 26.05 216 -1.13 30.30 240 0.08 34.48 264 0.02 34.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.60 0.10 11.17 9.85 0.97 0.97 48 1.56 -0.26 13.42 12.09 0.97 0.97 72 1.13 0.62 16.57 14.62 0.95 0.96 96 0.70 18.22 0.92 120 -0.56 23.56 0.89 144 -2.77 30.86 0.83 168 -2.52 33.89 0.82 192 -0.97 39.75 0.72 216 2.11 45.26 0.65 240 5.04 46.89 0.66 264 -1.36 50.08 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 91 12 UTC = 94 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.46 -2.24 12.31 12.72 0.98 0.98 48 -2.85 -3.03 15.98 16.64 0.98 0.98 72 -3.59 -2.76 22.62 22.34 0.96 0.97 96 -4.16 29.94 0.94 120 -7.20 39.19 0.91 144 -10.51 49.55 0.88 168 -11.36 56.86 0.86 192 -11.09 63.76 0.80 216 -10.51 75.47 0.70 240 -7.76 83.04 0.67 264 -13.89 91.19 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 102 12 UTC = 104 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.29 -5.28 17.48 18.87 0.98 0.97 48 -6.80 -8.02 21.96 24.23 0.98 0.98 72 -8.59 -8.37 30.40 31.06 0.97 0.97 96 -10.67 39.11 0.95 120 -13.05 50.92 0.92 144 -15.75 62.40 0.90 168 -17.46 72.80 0.88 192 -16.64 82.83 0.84 216 -12.12 99.73 0.76 240 -4.03 113.05 0.72 264 -6.55 121.91 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 102 12 UTC = 103 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.51 1.99 1.89 0.90 0.90 48 -0.53 -0.56 2.17 2.10 0.92 0.91 72 -0.52 -0.58 2.45 2.33 0.88 0.90 96 -0.56 2.57 0.86 120 -0.54 2.85 0.84 144 -0.59 3.23 0.81 168 -0.63 3.45 0.81 192 -0.66 3.81 0.77 216 -0.80 4.51 0.68 240 -0.98 5.01 0.64 264 -0.96 5.12 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 113 12 UTC = 114 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.24 1.01 1.04 0.95 0.94 48 -0.28 -0.29 1.22 1.27 0.96 0.95 72 -0.29 -0.31 1.55 1.55 0.94 0.94 96 -0.43 1.87 0.91 120 -0.53 2.31 0.87 144 -0.62 2.78 0.84 168 -0.77 3.10 0.82 192 -0.88 3.52 0.78 216 -0.93 4.08 0.69 240 -0.89 4.57 0.65 264 -0.93 4.75 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 131 12 UTC = 133 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.33 1.33 1.39 0.92 0.91 48 0.26 0.33 1.55 1.62 0.93 0.92 72 0.29 0.43 1.89 1.95 0.91 0.90 96 0.56 2.29 0.87 120 0.70 2.65 0.83 144 0.93 3.09 0.80 168 1.11 3.40 0.79 192 1.33 3.72 0.75 216 1.53 4.21 0.67 240 1.94 4.76 0.60 264 2.24 5.04 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.88 3.90 3.87 48 -0.92 -0.93 4.30 4.31 72 -1.03 -1.01 4.86 4.72 96 -1.17 5.21 120 -1.22 5.83 144 -1.26 6.73 168 -1.40 7.13 192 -1.37 7.70 216 -1.24 8.32 240 -1.12 8.94 264 -1.02 9.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 112 12 UTC = 114 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.38 4.59 4.54 48 -0.75 -0.59 5.51 5.51 72 -0.86 -0.73 6.83 6.75 96 -0.87 7.93 120 -0.83 9.06 144 -0.84 10.84 168 -0.88 11.55 192 -0.87 12.60 216 -0.68 14.12 240 -0.22 15.34 264 0.24 15.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -0.81 5.66 5.60 48 -1.18 -1.16 6.83 6.75 72 -1.45 -1.42 8.31 8.04 96 -1.69 9.52 120 -1.78 10.78 144 -1.59 12.59 168 -1.27 13.86 192 -1.26 15.57 216 -0.96 17.86 240 0.19 20.08 264 0.90 21.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 128 12 UTC = 128 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.82 -3.97 7.08 7.17 0.96 0.97 48 -6.65 -5.06 10.27 10.22 0.94 0.95 72 -9.06 -6.48 13.75 14.25 0.94 0.93 96 -9.49 17.73 0.91 120 -9.85 22.16 0.91 144 -8.92 25.63 0.79 168 -10.51 31.48 0.79 192 -11.09 32.04 0.82 216 -16.51 38.79 0.78 240 -15.34 41.98 0.73 264 -15.75 47.92 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.31 -10.40 11.06 13.48 0.97 0.97 48 -8.29 -10.01 12.67 15.43 0.97 0.93 72 -9.24 -9.87 15.55 18.81 0.95 0.95 96 -12.39 22.32 0.95 120 -12.55 26.79 0.95 144 -10.02 33.17 0.82 168 -10.16 41.87 0.79 192 -10.87 42.93 0.77 216 -18.13 53.79 0.72 240 -16.96 63.63 0.64 264 -16.80 69.87 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.71 -10.91 12.21 15.42 0.98 0.98 48 -8.36 -11.50 16.42 19.10 0.97 0.98 72 -10.15 -11.09 21.61 23.02 0.97 0.97 96 -14.08 28.33 0.97 120 -14.92 35.02 0.96 144 -11.91 48.90 0.85 168 -8.99 62.63 0.70 192 -9.98 69.14 0.71 216 -19.70 83.62 0.70 240 -20.04 98.35 0.60 264 -18.49 100.52 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.33 1.12 1.30 0.82 0.82 48 0.08 -0.20 1.28 1.41 0.88 0.87 72 0.25 -0.12 1.44 1.57 0.88 0.89 96 -0.07 1.74 0.84 120 -0.09 1.95 0.85 144 0.14 2.40 0.74 168 0.08 3.09 0.65 192 0.22 3.25 0.64 216 0.09 3.26 0.64 240 0.20 3.53 0.66 264 0.25 4.12 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.00 0.81 0.77 0.83 0.87 48 0.03 0.03 0.92 0.92 0.87 0.85 72 0.02 0.04 1.07 1.06 0.87 0.85 96 0.05 1.20 0.83 120 0.06 1.36 0.80 144 0.06 1.63 0.71 168 0.26 1.82 0.71 192 0.26 2.08 0.67 216 0.12 2.37 0.65 240 0.10 2.68 0.60 264 0.19 2.93 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.06 0.80 0.77 0.88 0.87 48 0.12 -0.02 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.87 72 0.09 -0.07 1.11 1.07 0.89 0.89 96 -0.05 1.15 0.87 120 -0.07 1.38 0.85 144 -0.03 1.57 0.82 168 0.01 1.89 0.71 192 -0.07 2.03 0.69 216 0.17 2.22 0.70 240 0.15 2.43 0.72 264 -0.14 2.40 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.88 4.02 4.20 48 -0.66 -0.89 4.58 4.60 72 -0.64 -0.78 5.10 5.07 96 -0.80 5.26 120 -0.75 5.79 144 -0.86 6.17 168 -0.96 6.96 192 -1.07 7.46 216 -1.10 7.78 240 -1.32 8.21 264 -1.05 9.02 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.56 3.91 4.08 48 -0.56 -0.83 4.62 4.69 72 -0.63 -0.94 5.26 5.33 96 -0.90 6.09 120 -0.92 7.06 144 -1.22 7.53 168 -1.03 8.78 192 -1.12 9.50 216 -1.16 10.43 240 -1.15 10.73 264 -1.05 11.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.83 4.96 5.07 48 -0.82 -1.05 6.01 6.00 72 -1.04 -1.17 7.21 6.75 96 -1.18 7.92 120 -1.08 9.55 144 -1.44 10.60 168 -1.27 13.62 192 -1.61 15.43 216 -2.09 16.55 240 -2.14 17.33 264 -0.79 19.08 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.39 -4.36 10.45 10.74 0.73 0.73 48 -4.24 -4.82 10.56 11.22 0.84 0.83 72 -4.95 -5.25 11.13 11.76 0.85 0.84 96 -6.01 12.39 0.82 120 -6.48 13.06 0.82 144 -6.22 13.61 0.82 168 -6.15 14.25 0.78 192 -6.17 15.00 0.73 216 -6.63 15.92 0.70 240 -6.29 16.55 0.66 264 -6.18 17.52 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.20 -10.79 15.35 15.00 0.63 0.66 48 -11.66 -11.79 15.88 15.87 0.79 0.80 72 -12.54 -12.56 16.79 16.76 0.82 0.84 96 -13.31 17.59 0.85 120 -13.92 18.29 0.83 144 -13.70 18.76 0.82 168 -13.59 19.35 0.78 192 -13.50 20.20 0.74 216 -13.81 20.83 0.70 240 -13.02 21.08 0.66 264 -13.22 22.40 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.94 -11.13 17.97 17.24 0.60 0.68 48 -11.61 -11.96 18.89 18.54 0.75 0.79 72 -12.20 -12.64 19.75 19.89 0.79 0.82 96 -13.31 21.08 0.82 120 -13.87 22.27 0.80 144 -13.26 23.22 0.76 168 -12.98 24.24 0.74 192 -12.66 25.31 0.72 216 -12.85 25.97 0.70 240 -11.86 27.22 0.64 264 -12.11 28.53 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.34 1.07 1.06 0.50 0.52 48 -0.30 -0.33 1.11 1.10 0.60 0.62 72 -0.28 -0.30 1.15 1.13 0.62 0.65 96 -0.30 1.16 0.66 120 -0.30 1.21 0.65 144 -0.27 1.23 0.67 168 -0.27 1.30 0.64 192 -0.27 1.41 0.62 216 -0.27 1.48 0.59 240 -0.23 1.51 0.58 264 -0.26 1.59 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 -0.03 0.84 0.83 0.51 0.54 48 0.06 -0.04 0.88 0.87 0.60 0.66 72 0.06 -0.04 0.91 0.92 0.64 0.69 96 -0.05 0.98 0.69 120 -0.07 1.03 0.67 144 -0.06 1.08 0.66 168 -0.06 1.13 0.64 192 -0.03 1.17 0.63 216 -0.03 1.22 0.60 240 -0.03 1.28 0.57 264 -0.05 1.31 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.08 0.70 0.64 0.56 0.67 48 0.09 0.06 0.76 0.71 0.66 0.73 72 0.11 0.06 0.80 0.79 0.68 0.74 96 0.06 0.85 0.69 120 0.09 0.90 0.65 144 0.11 0.95 0.64 168 0.09 1.02 0.59 192 0.10 1.07 0.56 216 0.09 1.13 0.53 240 0.09 1.15 0.52 264 0.10 1.16 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.66 3.61 3.54 48 -0.62 -0.72 3.88 3.74 72 -0.69 -0.68 4.05 3.93 96 -0.67 4.12 120 -0.70 4.32 144 -0.76 4.57 168 -0.83 4.79 192 -0.80 5.07 216 -0.67 5.33 240 -0.58 5.52 264 -0.62 5.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.73 3.80 3.77 48 -0.70 -0.76 4.15 4.10 72 -0.72 -0.76 4.50 4.47 96 -0.79 4.86 120 -0.80 5.27 144 -0.71 5.68 168 -0.67 6.11 192 -0.59 6.59 216 -0.46 7.08 240 -0.48 7.47 264 -0.60 7.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.88 5.04 5.11 48 -1.18 -1.11 5.93 6.14 72 -1.37 -1.25 6.61 6.95 96 -1.35 7.63 120 -1.45 7.96 144 -1.57 8.50 168 -1.76 9.12 192 -1.83 9.66 216 -1.93 10.31 240 -1.98 10.83 264 -1.92 11.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.88 -2.17 10.39 10.34 0.98 0.98 48 -2.15 -2.85 14.00 13.75 0.98 0.98 72 -1.64 -2.54 19.49 18.63 0.97 0.97 96 -1.90 25.36 0.95 120 -2.12 34.57 0.92 144 -2.77 45.18 0.87 168 -2.96 54.86 0.83 192 -2.13 63.51 0.77 216 -0.28 71.06 0.71 240 1.80 74.69 0.68 264 1.19 80.04 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 347 12 UTC = 321 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.56 -5.49 13.25 13.34 0.99 0.99 48 -6.50 -6.93 18.68 19.12 0.99 0.99 72 -6.41 -7.08 27.74 27.25 0.98 0.98 96 -7.33 38.22 0.96 120 -8.75 52.66 0.93 144 -9.90 69.29 0.88 168 -9.36 85.10 0.83 192 -7.52 97.72 0.78 216 -5.59 109.03 0.72 240 -2.42 116.43 0.68 264 -2.41 123.41 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 362 12 UTC = 336 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.70 -7.56 17.73 17.73 0.99 0.99 48 -9.88 -10.57 24.87 25.28 0.99 0.99 72 -10.95 -11.62 35.42 34.45 0.98 0.98 96 -12.58 48.42 0.96 120 -14.26 69.05 0.93 144 -15.32 90.24 0.89 168 -14.66 111.83 0.84 192 -11.39 129.97 0.80 216 -7.44 146.86 0.73 240 -1.96 158.56 0.69 264 -0.29 167.06 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 362 12 UTC = 335 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.47 1.75 1.77 0.93 0.93 48 -0.46 -0.50 1.95 1.98 0.94 0.94 72 -0.43 -0.49 2.25 2.27 0.92 0.92 96 -0.48 2.68 0.90 120 -0.48 3.26 0.87 144 -0.52 3.85 0.83 168 -0.45 4.42 0.78 192 -0.33 5.00 0.73 216 -0.33 5.52 0.67 240 -0.31 5.86 0.63 264 -0.27 6.17 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 374 12 UTC = 345 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.19 0.97 0.98 0.96 0.96 48 -0.25 -0.26 1.24 1.23 0.97 0.96 72 -0.29 -0.29 1.63 1.58 0.95 0.95 96 -0.39 2.09 0.92 120 -0.47 2.71 0.88 144 -0.51 3.32 0.83 168 -0.54 3.83 0.79 192 -0.52 4.34 0.74 216 -0.49 4.79 0.67 240 -0.37 5.13 0.63 264 -0.33 5.29 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 404 12 UTC = 376 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.28 1.25 1.24 0.94 0.93 48 0.24 0.26 1.51 1.50 0.94 0.94 72 0.21 0.25 1.90 1.87 0.92 0.92 96 0.30 2.27 0.89 120 0.36 2.76 0.84 144 0.40 3.26 0.80 168 0.47 3.69 0.74 192 0.51 4.04 0.70 216 0.56 4.39 0.63 240 0.66 4.66 0.59 264 0.74 4.87 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 372 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.79 3.98 4.04 48 -0.93 -0.86 4.54 4.56 72 -1.01 -0.87 5.34 5.26 96 -0.91 6.06 120 -0.95 7.10 144 -0.93 8.19 168 -1.03 9.19 192 -1.02 9.94 216 -0.96 10.69 240 -0.97 10.93 264 -0.86 11.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 359 12 UTC = 335 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.61 4.50 4.51 48 -0.77 -0.73 5.69 5.62 72 -0.91 -0.88 7.32 7.15 96 -1.01 8.85 120 -1.07 10.65 144 -1.16 12.53 168 -1.23 14.32 192 -1.31 15.63 216 -1.20 17.32 240 -1.10 18.06 264 -0.81 18.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 390 12 UTC = 364 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.76 5.37 5.37 48 -1.01 -0.98 6.83 6.81 72 -1.19 -1.13 8.86 8.62 96 -1.31 11.04 120 -1.53 13.90 144 -1.54 16.68 168 -1.59 19.27 192 -1.75 21.23 216 -1.64 23.92 240 -1.24 25.50 264 -1.05 26.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 388 12 UTC = 362 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.37 -2.58 8.51 9.15 0.96 0.97 48 -4.61 -2.69 11.40 11.47 0.96 0.97 72 -5.94 -3.36 14.63 15.19 0.95 0.95 96 -3.65 19.35 0.92 120 -3.49 24.58 0.89 144 -1.30 30.45 0.83 168 -1.64 35.40 0.78 192 -1.72 38.08 0.78 216 -2.63 43.27 0.71 240 -1.55 44.80 0.66 264 -1.31 49.36 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.89 -8.11 12.68 13.40 0.97 0.97 48 -7.47 -7.20 14.75 16.23 0.97 0.97 72 -7.90 -6.66 17.87 21.15 0.97 0.97 96 -6.01 26.80 0.95 120 -5.02 33.79 0.91 144 -1.61 42.08 0.86 168 0.20 51.87 0.78 192 1.15 55.03 0.79 216 0.34 62.61 0.75 240 2.15 70.17 0.62 264 4.21 73.43 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.18 -8.57 15.50 17.83 0.98 0.97 48 -7.93 -9.55 20.56 23.11 0.98 0.98 72 -9.39 -10.07 26.43 30.15 0.97 0.97 96 -9.99 38.23 0.95 120 -7.99 47.58 0.93 144 -4.34 59.67 0.87 168 -0.20 74.80 0.78 192 3.21 82.60 0.76 216 2.40 91.23 0.72 240 5.06 104.48 0.61 264 8.60 108.81 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.55 1.54 1.56 0.86 0.87 48 -0.41 -0.45 1.64 1.64 0.90 0.90 72 -0.30 -0.37 1.80 1.79 0.89 0.90 96 -0.30 2.06 0.88 120 -0.20 2.30 0.83 144 -0.04 2.70 0.76 168 0.10 3.12 0.72 192 0.15 3.27 0.70 216 0.08 3.48 0.68 240 0.10 3.85 0.61 264 0.23 4.15 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.17 0.95 0.93 0.87 0.91 48 0.21 0.19 1.09 1.12 0.91 0.93 72 0.18 0.15 1.30 1.35 0.90 0.91 96 0.17 1.57 0.90 120 0.22 1.91 0.85 144 0.35 2.19 0.78 168 0.49 2.56 0.73 192 0.49 2.84 0.68 216 0.50 2.93 0.66 240 0.58 3.24 0.54 264 0.63 3.43 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.02 0.95 0.99 0.90 0.89 48 0.04 -0.12 1.18 1.25 0.90 0.90 72 0.01 -0.14 1.48 1.53 0.87 0.88 96 -0.17 1.81 0.85 120 -0.15 2.14 0.80 144 -0.24 2.51 0.73 168 -0.16 2.82 0.66 192 -0.18 2.88 0.65 216 -0.05 3.01 0.64 240 -0.04 3.22 0.58 264 -0.01 3.31 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -1.11 4.39 4.20 48 -0.97 -1.15 4.83 4.54 72 -0.95 -1.09 5.28 4.93 96 -1.24 5.36 120 -1.25 5.99 144 -1.24 6.52 168 -1.25 7.11 192 -1.30 7.65 216 -1.13 8.17 240 -1.41 8.33 264 -1.25 8.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.54 3.99 3.91 48 -0.75 -0.60 4.75 4.51 72 -0.80 -0.69 5.43 5.34 96 -0.64 6.47 120 -0.73 7.56 144 -1.00 8.75 168 -1.18 9.65 192 -1.03 10.39 216 -0.97 11.40 240 -1.34 11.44 264 -1.36 12.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -0.93 5.40 5.41 48 -1.18 -1.37 6.72 6.62 72 -1.40 -1.41 8.28 7.84 96 -1.57 9.59 120 -1.84 11.82 144 -2.31 13.75 168 -2.38 15.65 192 -2.48 17.15 216 -3.02 18.78 240 -3.18 19.67 264 -2.78 20.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 39 ---------------------------------------------------------