VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MARCH 2015 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.03 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.99 16.2 16.9 48 0.05 0.03 1.61 1.67 0.99 0.98 24.8 25.7 72 0.05 0.01 2.40 2.46 0.97 0.97 32.6 33.8 96 -0.01 3.44 0.93 41.9 120 0.01 4.62 0.88 50.1 144 -0.03 5.82 0.80 57.4 168 -0.04 7.06 0.71 63.7 192 -0.06 8.18 0.61 69.8 216 -0.08 9.10 0.53 74.5 240 -0.08 9.91 0.45 78.8 264 -0.09 10.34 0.39 80.6 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.53 6.96 7.05 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.5 48 -0.11 -0.55 13.95 14.11 0.99 0.99 17.3 17.3 72 -0.05 -0.66 22.73 23.06 0.98 0.98 24.9 25.1 96 -0.79 33.25 0.95 32.2 120 -0.89 45.32 0.91 39.4 144 -1.25 57.12 0.85 45.2 168 -1.51 67.96 0.79 50.3 192 -1.66 79.58 0.72 55.1 216 -1.94 91.16 0.63 59.6 240 -2.17 102.11 0.54 63.7 264 -2.40 110.10 0.45 66.3 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.84 9.45 9.51 1.00 1.00 7.6 7.6 48 -1.55 -1.82 18.40 18.42 0.99 0.99 13.1 13.0 72 -2.26 -2.85 29.73 30.05 0.98 0.98 18.9 18.9 96 -3.71 43.78 0.96 24.9 120 -4.02 59.79 0.92 31.2 144 -4.20 73.96 0.88 36.2 168 -4.37 88.06 0.83 41.1 192 -4.50 105.97 0.76 46.2 216 -4.78 123.38 0.67 50.8 240 -5.54 138.04 0.58 54.6 264 -6.42 149.36 0.50 57.3 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.49 0.50 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.04 0.90 0.89 0.98 0.98 72 -0.08 -0.07 1.33 1.35 0.95 0.95 96 -0.11 1.82 0.91 120 -0.15 2.36 0.85 144 -0.15 2.78 0.79 168 -0.15 3.23 0.71 192 -0.16 3.74 0.61 216 -0.16 4.15 0.52 240 -0.19 4.46 0.44 264 -0.24 4.75 0.36 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.01 0.66 0.66 0.99 0.99 48 -0.09 -0.08 1.10 1.10 0.97 0.97 72 -0.10 -0.10 1.54 1.55 0.94 0.94 96 -0.09 1.98 0.90 120 -0.06 2.47 0.84 144 -0.04 2.88 0.78 168 -0.02 3.24 0.72 192 -0.02 3.58 0.66 216 -0.01 3.87 0.60 240 -0.05 4.17 0.53 264 -0.10 4.40 0.47 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.07 2.24 2.27 48 -0.16 -0.16 4.06 4.06 72 -0.24 -0.23 5.79 5.85 96 -0.31 7.53 120 -0.32 9.26 144 -0.31 10.78 168 -0.28 12.15 192 -0.26 13.60 216 -0.18 14.89 240 -0.17 16.05 264 -0.21 16.87 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.12 3.34 3.35 48 -0.30 -0.26 5.52 5.44 72 -0.33 -0.31 7.68 7.67 96 -0.32 9.94 120 -0.29 12.42 144 -0.25 14.56 168 -0.22 16.71 192 -0.20 19.18 216 -0.17 21.33 240 -0.23 22.97 264 -0.28 24.34 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.22 3.42 3.20 0.97 0.98 27.2 26.5 48 -0.50 -0.40 5.31 4.81 0.94 0.95 36.5 35.2 72 -0.69 -0.55 6.64 6.05 0.91 0.92 42.2 40.5 96 -0.67 7.15 0.89 44.5 120 -1.00 8.16 0.86 48.1 144 -1.17 9.11 0.82 50.9 168 -1.59 10.23 0.77 53.3 192 -2.02 11.62 0.72 55.4 216 -2.37 12.87 0.68 57.4 240 -2.62 13.59 0.65 59.4 264 -2.71 13.65 0.64 61.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.96 0.74 5.08 4.92 0.98 0.98 20.1 20.2 48 0.24 -0.07 7.71 7.68 0.96 0.96 28.1 28.2 72 -0.24 -0.52 10.20 10.19 0.93 0.93 33.8 34.0 96 -0.83 12.23 0.90 38.7 120 -1.05 14.41 0.85 42.9 144 -0.95 16.37 0.81 46.6 168 -1.06 17.97 0.77 49.3 192 -0.72 19.60 0.73 52.3 216 -0.04 21.71 0.68 55.6 240 0.67 23.75 0.62 58.0 264 1.54 25.09 0.57 60.3 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.44 0.45 0.96 0.96 48 0.05 0.03 0.73 0.72 0.88 0.90 72 0.08 0.06 0.91 0.90 0.82 0.85 96 0.09 1.02 0.81 120 0.10 1.11 0.78 144 0.12 1.18 0.75 168 0.14 1.26 0.72 192 0.16 1.34 0.69 216 0.19 1.44 0.65 240 0.23 1.58 0.58 264 0.27 1.69 0.52 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.01 0.40 0.38 0.93 0.94 48 -0.02 -0.04 0.59 0.57 0.85 0.86 72 -0.03 -0.06 0.72 0.71 0.77 0.79 96 -0.06 0.80 0.72 120 -0.06 0.87 0.67 144 -0.05 0.94 0.63 168 -0.03 1.01 0.58 192 -0.01 1.08 0.53 216 0.02 1.13 0.50 240 0.03 1.15 0.49 264 0.05 1.18 0.47 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.12 1.45 1.43 48 -0.23 -0.23 2.16 2.14 72 -0.29 -0.28 2.70 2.67 96 -0.30 3.11 120 -0.28 3.50 144 -0.28 3.81 168 -0.24 4.12 192 -0.19 4.37 216 -0.12 4.64 240 -0.04 4.85 264 -0.04 5.03 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.39 3.29 3.24 48 -0.65 -0.66 4.97 4.90 72 -0.83 -0.82 6.12 6.10 96 -0.93 7.02 120 -1.02 7.81 144 -1.05 8.61 168 -1.05 9.29 192 -1.09 9.96 216 -1.20 10.49 240 -1.33 10.90 264 -1.38 11.37 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 0.87 0.87 0.99 0.99 12.1 12.2 48 -0.04 -0.02 1.75 1.69 0.98 0.98 21.6 21.4 72 -0.03 0.00 2.67 2.69 0.95 0.95 30.1 30.0 96 0.02 3.84 0.90 38.1 120 0.05 5.12 0.82 45.9 144 0.08 6.38 0.72 52.9 168 0.15 7.55 0.61 59.0 192 0.24 8.55 0.50 63.7 216 0.31 9.43 0.39 66.6 240 0.36 9.97 0.32 68.3 264 0.39 10.41 0.26 69.5 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.35 1.37 7.73 7.77 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.8 48 1.97 2.09 16.18 15.86 0.99 0.99 18.2 18.0 72 2.53 2.69 26.38 26.78 0.96 0.96 26.2 26.4 96 3.19 39.16 0.91 34.2 120 3.54 53.51 0.84 42.0 144 4.05 68.56 0.73 49.4 168 4.50 81.56 0.62 55.2 192 5.32 93.57 0.50 60.0 216 5.78 104.72 0.38 63.8 240 6.39 110.60 0.32 65.6 264 6.96 114.55 0.27 66.6 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.69 0.71 10.11 10.21 1.00 1.00 8.5 8.7 48 0.38 0.43 21.25 21.09 0.99 0.99 15.6 15.6 72 0.17 0.26 34.91 35.35 0.96 0.96 22.7 22.9 96 0.30 51.97 0.92 30.2 120 0.32 71.73 0.84 37.7 144 0.36 91.78 0.73 44.9 168 0.41 108.44 0.62 50.1 192 1.26 125.27 0.51 55.1 216 1.54 140.80 0.39 59.0 240 2.60 148.87 0.33 60.9 264 3.56 152.76 0.30 61.7 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 0.48 0.49 0.99 0.99 48 0.01 0.01 0.95 0.93 0.96 0.96 72 0.00 0.00 1.41 1.44 0.92 0.91 96 0.00 1.93 0.84 120 0.00 2.47 0.74 144 0.00 2.98 0.62 168 -0.02 3.37 0.51 192 -0.03 3.74 0.40 216 -0.06 4.09 0.30 240 -0.03 4.27 0.24 264 -0.02 4.32 0.23 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.04 0.63 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 -0.10 -0.11 1.15 1.14 0.95 0.95 72 -0.16 -0.17 1.66 1.68 0.88 0.88 96 -0.20 2.17 0.80 120 -0.23 2.66 0.70 144 -0.25 3.14 0.58 168 -0.26 3.48 0.48 192 -0.25 3.77 0.39 216 -0.25 4.03 0.30 240 -0.19 4.24 0.23 264 -0.17 4.39 0.19 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.13 2.16 2.15 48 -0.22 -0.24 4.07 4.00 72 -0.28 -0.30 5.87 5.91 96 -0.32 7.78 120 -0.35 9.79 144 -0.40 11.64 168 -0.41 13.25 192 -0.45 14.63 216 -0.46 15.73 240 -0.45 16.18 264 -0.44 16.42 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.19 3.21 3.23 48 -0.32 -0.34 5.82 5.79 72 -0.43 -0.43 8.42 8.43 96 -0.44 11.24 120 -0.49 14.27 144 -0.60 17.17 168 -0.62 19.57 192 -0.66 21.71 216 -0.66 23.52 240 -0.61 24.20 264 -0.60 24.53 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -1.71 7.89 8.49 0.99 0.99 48 -0.91 -1.30 11.61 12.05 0.98 0.98 72 -0.34 -0.95 16.81 17.83 0.96 0.96 96 -0.23 23.22 0.93 120 0.86 29.73 0.90 144 -0.29 36.11 0.86 168 -1.91 43.56 0.81 192 -1.03 49.39 0.77 216 0.80 55.98 0.71 240 -1.60 60.53 0.64 264 -5.81 66.16 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.39 -8.32 11.63 13.01 0.99 0.99 48 -7.27 -8.73 17.65 18.76 0.99 0.99 72 -6.26 -7.99 26.60 27.77 0.97 0.96 96 -6.99 37.34 0.94 120 -7.54 46.28 0.92 144 -9.38 57.43 0.88 168 -12.03 67.60 0.85 192 -13.12 78.41 0.80 216 -14.97 87.51 0.75 240 -14.71 100.96 0.67 264 -19.95 115.73 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.69 -10.70 16.03 16.98 0.99 0.99 48 -12.42 -13.52 24.83 25.99 0.99 0.98 72 -13.29 -14.98 37.17 37.80 0.97 0.97 96 -14.44 51.96 0.95 120 -14.67 65.73 0.92 144 -16.84 79.26 0.89 168 -21.72 93.47 0.88 192 -25.76 109.14 0.83 216 -33.13 122.82 0.79 240 -33.94 146.28 0.72 264 -40.91 165.69 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.71 1.72 2.02 0.93 0.94 48 -0.46 -0.67 1.91 2.26 0.95 0.95 72 -0.28 -0.53 2.25 2.66 0.93 0.93 96 -0.41 3.16 0.90 120 -0.55 3.64 0.87 144 -0.66 3.96 0.83 168 -0.72 4.83 0.79 192 -0.84 5.51 0.75 216 -1.02 5.88 0.69 240 -0.64 6.57 0.58 264 -0.57 7.09 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.15 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 48 -0.22 -0.23 1.20 1.23 0.96 0.95 72 -0.26 -0.28 1.57 1.59 0.94 0.93 96 -0.32 2.07 0.91 120 -0.39 2.56 0.86 144 -0.42 2.93 0.83 168 -0.49 3.41 0.79 192 -0.65 3.86 0.76 216 -0.92 4.33 0.69 240 -0.83 4.81 0.62 264 -0.94 5.34 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.30 1.08 1.14 0.95 0.95 48 0.09 0.17 1.39 1.45 0.94 0.94 72 -0.04 0.09 1.81 1.83 0.91 0.91 96 0.11 2.20 0.88 120 0.29 2.67 0.84 144 0.34 3.05 0.79 168 0.36 3.43 0.73 192 0.31 3.67 0.69 216 0.18 4.08 0.66 240 -0.09 4.39 0.57 264 -0.24 4.63 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.85 4.01 4.15 48 -0.77 -0.92 4.61 4.77 72 -0.78 -0.94 5.30 5.68 96 -0.85 6.44 120 -0.90 7.47 144 -0.94 8.25 168 -0.87 9.20 192 -1.05 10.20 216 -1.28 10.83 240 -1.35 11.35 264 -1.56 11.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.78 4.39 4.47 48 -1.00 -1.00 5.49 5.71 72 -1.17 -1.10 7.11 7.13 96 -1.08 8.88 120 -1.16 10.44 144 -1.30 11.84 168 -1.49 13.65 192 -2.00 14.92 216 -2.13 16.26 240 -2.09 17.61 264 -2.08 18.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -0.96 6.01 5.80 48 -1.30 -1.44 7.64 7.55 72 -1.60 -1.56 10.02 9.73 96 -1.70 12.24 120 -1.77 14.59 144 -1.78 16.64 168 -2.19 19.28 192 -2.87 21.60 216 -3.26 24.07 240 -2.85 26.96 264 -2.88 27.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.32 -6.05 10.68 11.32 0.98 0.98 48 -5.39 -6.77 14.62 15.51 0.98 0.98 72 -5.09 -6.01 20.86 21.30 0.97 0.96 96 -5.23 28.44 0.95 120 -3.68 37.81 0.92 144 -1.05 46.75 0.86 168 2.58 55.86 0.81 192 5.39 62.43 0.80 216 3.90 75.89 0.69 240 1.64 91.86 0.62 264 -1.45 88.56 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.04 -9.85 15.27 15.03 0.99 0.98 48 -12.33 -11.32 21.75 21.43 0.98 0.98 72 -12.06 -11.75 31.47 31.72 0.97 0.97 96 -10.24 44.53 0.96 120 -11.05 61.77 0.91 144 -8.47 76.33 0.87 168 -6.47 89.24 0.83 192 5.37 101.23 0.80 216 4.77 118.27 0.71 240 -0.36 141.26 0.62 264 -4.72 149.06 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -13.42 -11.99 18.99 19.23 0.99 0.99 48 -18.01 -14.96 28.46 26.96 0.98 0.99 72 -18.39 -17.04 40.18 40.86 0.98 0.97 96 -16.97 57.51 0.96 120 -15.95 82.24 0.91 144 -14.03 98.95 0.86 168 -14.36 110.73 0.84 192 8.99 132.86 0.79 216 7.22 156.43 0.71 240 -4.41 183.06 0.62 264 -5.86 200.90 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.22 1.35 1.28 0.92 0.90 48 -0.54 -0.26 1.52 1.47 0.93 0.92 72 -0.49 -0.24 1.84 1.74 0.91 0.91 96 -0.20 2.13 0.90 120 -0.37 2.63 0.86 144 -0.40 3.06 0.81 168 -0.52 3.61 0.76 192 -0.06 4.26 0.66 216 0.27 4.67 0.59 240 0.18 4.89 0.54 264 0.21 5.26 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.15 0.91 0.90 0.95 0.95 48 -0.38 -0.22 1.24 1.22 0.95 0.95 72 -0.42 -0.31 1.65 1.69 0.93 0.93 96 -0.32 2.20 0.90 120 -0.38 2.94 0.83 144 -0.38 3.29 0.80 168 -0.47 3.58 0.73 192 0.16 4.05 0.69 216 0.09 4.50 0.67 240 -0.14 5.00 0.59 264 -0.21 5.68 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.34 1.15 1.14 0.92 0.93 48 0.16 0.20 1.46 1.44 0.90 0.92 72 0.11 0.08 1.87 1.85 0.88 0.88 96 -0.04 2.23 0.85 120 0.13 2.84 0.77 144 0.14 3.05 0.73 168 0.04 3.52 0.66 192 -0.01 3.67 0.65 216 0.02 3.98 0.64 240 -0.19 4.56 0.55 264 0.10 4.65 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.43 4.08 4.08 48 -0.69 -0.53 4.68 4.61 72 -0.70 -0.62 5.48 5.42 96 -0.64 6.35 120 -0.69 7.44 144 -0.57 8.44 168 -0.48 9.49 192 -0.24 10.30 216 -0.19 11.54 240 -0.27 12.96 264 -0.30 13.03 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.60 4.57 4.80 48 -0.54 -0.72 6.08 6.18 72 -0.41 -0.61 7.81 8.09 96 -0.57 9.92 120 -0.35 12.06 144 -0.51 13.96 168 -0.76 15.80 192 -0.01 17.42 216 -0.06 19.55 240 -0.08 22.42 264 0.06 23.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.72 5.81 5.51 48 -0.86 -0.60 7.63 7.17 72 -0.65 -0.41 9.99 9.58 96 -0.38 12.54 120 0.15 16.17 144 -0.15 19.05 168 -0.63 21.53 192 0.67 25.39 216 0.05 27.86 240 0.18 32.29 264 0.71 35.06 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.13 3.36 13.65 11.48 0.96 0.97 48 1.15 2.76 16.35 14.05 0.97 0.97 72 0.48 2.30 18.82 17.31 0.96 0.96 96 1.32 20.40 0.95 120 0.61 24.36 0.90 144 1.06 30.40 0.81 168 2.10 38.12 0.76 192 1.47 43.85 0.68 216 -1.01 47.94 0.64 240 1.45 50.31 0.59 264 5.08 50.14 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 91 12 UTC = 95 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.31 -0.25 12.17 12.99 0.97 0.97 48 -3.46 -1.53 15.84 16.73 0.98 0.97 72 -4.95 -3.69 20.58 21.46 0.97 0.96 96 -6.17 26.79 0.96 120 -8.33 33.91 0.93 144 -8.36 41.46 0.86 168 -7.68 51.60 0.82 192 -8.67 61.26 0.74 216 -12.07 68.79 0.69 240 -7.46 76.08 0.65 264 0.84 76.00 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 103 12 UTC = 106 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.32 -2.27 18.10 19.75 0.97 0.97 48 -7.51 -4.39 24.09 25.37 0.97 0.97 72 -10.72 -8.07 31.93 32.73 0.97 0.97 96 -13.47 40.38 0.96 120 -17.57 50.21 0.93 144 -19.97 61.20 0.90 168 -18.39 74.75 0.85 192 -18.18 86.81 0.82 216 -19.46 98.15 0.77 240 -13.66 108.83 0.73 264 -4.19 112.11 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 102 12 UTC = 105 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.82 2.31 2.12 0.88 0.89 48 -0.83 -0.95 2.49 2.36 0.91 0.91 72 -0.86 -1.03 2.66 2.55 0.90 0.91 96 -1.06 2.69 0.90 120 -1.00 2.87 0.86 144 -0.95 3.28 0.81 168 -0.98 3.82 0.78 192 -1.01 4.31 0.72 216 -1.06 4.78 0.68 240 -0.82 5.21 0.62 264 -0.44 5.44 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 112 12 UTC = 116 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.16 1.06 1.08 0.94 0.94 48 -0.22 -0.17 1.30 1.34 0.94 0.95 72 -0.29 -0.28 1.62 1.63 0.94 0.94 96 -0.46 1.93 0.93 120 -0.61 2.33 0.89 144 -0.72 2.77 0.83 168 -0.74 3.28 0.80 192 -0.76 3.65 0.75 216 -0.77 3.92 0.74 240 -0.70 4.18 0.70 264 -0.62 4.43 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 131 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.29 1.28 1.31 0.91 0.91 48 0.16 0.26 1.52 1.57 0.91 0.91 72 0.18 0.30 1.81 1.85 0.90 0.89 96 0.40 2.17 0.88 120 0.47 2.54 0.85 144 0.56 2.88 0.81 168 0.64 3.39 0.77 192 0.76 3.64 0.74 216 0.87 3.76 0.73 240 0.78 3.90 0.68 264 0.80 4.04 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 130 12 UTC = 132 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.80 4.12 3.99 48 -0.73 -0.79 4.63 4.49 72 -0.72 -0.77 5.18 5.04 96 -0.84 5.34 120 -1.01 5.91 144 -1.01 6.78 168 -0.84 7.76 192 -0.93 8.33 216 -1.13 8.64 240 -1.00 9.23 264 -0.96 9.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 111 12 UTC = 115 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.15 4.56 4.76 48 -0.67 -0.14 5.59 5.75 72 -0.64 -0.12 6.70 6.90 96 -0.15 7.70 120 -0.12 8.66 144 -0.15 9.69 168 -0.12 11.03 192 -0.27 11.79 216 -0.32 12.58 240 -0.44 13.20 264 -0.44 13.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 127 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.70 5.85 5.97 48 -1.07 -0.95 7.67 7.44 72 -1.20 -0.99 9.19 9.07 96 -0.99 10.32 120 -0.95 11.75 144 -0.88 13.35 168 -0.89 15.51 192 -0.72 16.74 216 -0.53 18.25 240 -0.33 18.84 264 -0.36 19.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 127 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.66 -4.34 6.99 7.50 0.96 0.98 48 -5.54 -5.61 9.56 11.00 0.97 0.97 72 -6.35 -6.36 12.41 14.95 0.95 0.91 96 -6.26 17.28 0.93 120 -7.24 24.62 0.88 144 -3.08 31.14 0.79 168 1.10 35.67 0.76 192 -0.70 45.59 0.60 216 -3.18 47.60 0.58 240 -3.36 52.67 0.43 264 -4.58 54.99 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.41 -10.65 11.49 13.89 0.97 0.96 48 -9.34 -11.91 14.02 17.00 0.98 0.94 72 -8.65 -12.23 16.39 20.63 0.97 0.96 96 -11.97 26.58 0.89 120 -15.86 38.77 0.88 144 -10.66 45.81 0.79 168 -3.48 47.13 0.69 192 -2.35 55.77 0.53 216 -4.84 65.16 0.43 240 -2.09 70.09 0.35 264 -1.50 75.52 0.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.51 -9.97 12.01 14.15 0.98 0.98 48 -8.18 -12.81 17.09 19.93 0.98 0.97 72 -7.59 -13.66 22.64 25.74 0.97 0.97 96 -15.40 34.72 0.95 120 -21.16 51.40 0.91 144 -18.21 66.41 0.81 168 -10.23 66.17 0.74 192 -5.99 77.30 0.69 216 -5.59 91.04 0.55 240 2.44 97.16 0.48 264 6.29 108.58 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.12 1.23 1.27 0.85 0.85 48 0.03 -0.01 1.39 1.49 0.86 0.84 72 0.19 0.18 1.55 1.70 0.87 0.82 96 0.15 1.68 0.81 120 0.10 2.28 0.81 144 0.05 2.75 0.72 168 0.27 2.92 0.71 192 0.77 3.52 0.62 216 0.71 3.89 0.46 240 0.73 3.66 0.59 264 0.87 3.79 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.05 0.85 0.82 0.89 0.86 48 0.02 -0.01 0.97 0.99 0.90 0.89 72 0.04 0.00 1.17 1.20 0.90 0.90 96 -0.05 1.48 0.79 120 -0.26 1.90 0.80 144 -0.29 2.21 0.76 168 -0.07 2.02 0.73 192 -0.05 2.30 0.64 216 0.09 2.41 0.65 240 0.31 2.58 0.56 264 0.37 2.97 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.19 0.89 0.93 0.86 0.84 48 0.22 0.12 1.10 1.18 0.88 0.84 72 0.16 0.04 1.29 1.31 0.86 0.87 96 -0.06 1.69 0.83 120 -0.04 2.11 0.74 144 -0.15 2.27 0.74 168 -0.24 2.31 0.71 192 -0.23 2.73 0.58 216 -0.07 2.91 0.59 240 0.29 3.05 0.49 264 0.45 3.39 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.45 3.79 3.81 48 -0.72 -0.44 4.24 4.20 72 -0.82 -0.55 4.84 4.83 96 -0.62 5.36 120 -0.87 6.29 144 -1.00 7.02 168 -1.02 7.50 192 -0.92 8.16 216 -1.04 8.71 240 -1.12 9.00 264 -1.08 9.05 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.45 4.08 4.03 48 -0.38 -0.46 4.69 4.76 72 -0.36 -0.52 5.71 5.69 96 -0.55 6.62 120 -0.43 8.55 144 -1.05 9.83 168 -1.18 10.71 192 -1.22 11.48 216 -1.45 12.44 240 -1.61 13.18 264 -1.40 13.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.96 5.28 5.18 48 -0.94 -0.91 6.60 6.75 72 -1.08 -1.01 8.27 8.13 96 -1.02 9.83 120 -0.85 11.61 144 -1.70 13.32 168 -2.24 15.97 192 -2.48 17.18 216 -2.34 17.68 240 -1.67 20.04 264 -1.63 19.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.78 -3.60 10.87 10.68 0.72 0.74 48 -4.48 -4.24 11.41 11.22 0.82 0.84 72 -4.78 -4.45 12.04 11.79 0.83 0.84 96 -4.36 12.13 0.81 120 -4.85 12.68 0.78 144 -4.37 13.01 0.77 168 -4.74 13.62 0.77 192 -4.96 14.26 0.75 216 -5.25 15.30 0.74 240 -5.12 16.26 0.68 264 -5.39 15.98 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.64 -9.84 15.08 14.47 0.61 0.66 48 -11.34 -10.74 15.77 15.34 0.75 0.80 72 -11.90 -11.24 16.48 15.92 0.77 0.81 96 -11.45 16.42 0.80 120 -12.09 17.48 0.79 144 -11.68 17.76 0.80 168 -11.69 18.10 0.79 192 -11.30 18.49 0.77 216 -11.10 19.23 0.76 240 -10.57 20.04 0.72 264 -10.37 19.94 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.57 -10.88 17.78 17.35 0.60 0.66 48 -11.52 -11.83 19.09 18.95 0.73 0.79 72 -12.06 -12.36 20.17 20.45 0.78 0.81 96 -12.77 21.83 0.80 120 -13.43 23.28 0.82 144 -12.87 23.78 0.81 168 -12.87 24.58 0.80 192 -12.26 25.19 0.77 216 -11.59 26.03 0.76 240 -10.46 26.97 0.73 264 -9.96 27.26 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.34 1.05 1.05 0.44 0.46 48 -0.31 -0.31 1.07 1.06 0.56 0.56 72 -0.27 -0.27 1.10 1.09 0.59 0.61 96 -0.25 1.12 0.63 120 -0.25 1.15 0.65 144 -0.23 1.17 0.66 168 -0.20 1.21 0.65 192 -0.16 1.21 0.66 216 -0.14 1.29 0.65 240 -0.09 1.32 0.63 264 -0.08 1.37 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 -0.05 0.80 0.80 0.54 0.59 48 0.11 -0.05 0.82 0.85 0.65 0.67 72 0.06 -0.08 0.87 0.92 0.70 0.67 96 -0.09 0.97 0.70 120 -0.09 1.03 0.71 144 -0.09 1.09 0.70 168 -0.08 1.12 0.70 192 -0.07 1.17 0.68 216 -0.07 1.22 0.64 240 -0.08 1.25 0.63 264 -0.06 1.27 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.04 0.71 0.64 0.55 0.62 48 0.09 0.05 0.81 0.76 0.61 0.65 72 0.12 0.05 0.89 0.84 0.63 0.64 96 0.05 0.90 0.65 120 0.03 0.95 0.66 144 0.02 0.98 0.67 168 0.01 1.01 0.68 192 0.05 1.05 0.66 216 0.08 1.11 0.64 240 0.10 1.12 0.64 264 0.09 1.12 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.66 3.54 3.49 48 -0.69 -0.74 3.82 3.75 72 -0.76 -0.73 4.11 4.00 96 -0.74 4.30 120 -0.73 4.53 144 -0.72 4.78 168 -0.73 4.98 192 -0.72 5.15 216 -0.67 5.31 240 -0.59 5.48 264 -0.57 5.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.65 3.73 3.76 48 -0.66 -0.76 4.14 4.09 72 -0.81 -0.89 4.48 4.52 96 -1.00 4.95 120 -1.01 5.29 144 -1.00 5.75 168 -1.00 6.06 192 -0.99 6.43 216 -0.93 6.83 240 -0.82 7.22 264 -0.73 7.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.00 -1.07 4.98 4.92 48 -1.12 -1.26 5.94 6.01 72 -1.28 -1.43 6.62 6.87 96 -1.54 7.56 120 -1.69 8.12 144 -1.83 8.76 168 -1.81 9.15 192 -1.79 9.68 216 -1.91 10.03 240 -2.09 10.30 264 -2.08 10.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.03 -1.10 11.16 10.92 0.98 0.98 48 -2.11 -1.27 14.37 14.22 0.98 0.98 72 -2.20 -1.15 19.06 19.16 0.97 0.97 96 -1.20 24.56 0.95 120 -1.05 31.62 0.93 144 -0.98 39.75 0.88 168 -0.46 48.28 0.83 192 -0.05 55.40 0.79 216 -0.19 62.93 0.74 240 -0.85 69.60 0.70 264 -2.16 71.25 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 349 12 UTC = 325 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.05 -5.35 13.32 13.75 0.99 0.98 48 -6.99 -6.30 18.52 18.93 0.98 0.98 72 -7.35 -6.90 26.34 26.76 0.98 0.97 96 -7.19 35.97 0.96 120 -8.29 47.59 0.93 144 -8.62 59.26 0.90 168 -8.67 69.50 0.87 192 -7.10 80.11 0.82 216 -8.20 91.33 0.77 240 -8.03 104.34 0.72 264 -8.85 111.53 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 366 12 UTC = 339 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.03 -7.42 18.73 18.70 0.99 0.98 48 -11.87 -9.72 26.10 25.74 0.99 0.98 72 -13.51 -11.83 36.47 36.03 0.98 0.98 96 -13.42 48.31 0.96 120 -14.56 64.40 0.94 144 -15.66 78.74 0.92 168 -16.09 91.29 0.89 192 -12.78 108.36 0.85 216 -14.73 124.66 0.80 240 -15.27 142.63 0.74 264 -15.54 154.85 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 364 12 UTC = 340 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.57 1.81 1.84 0.92 0.92 48 -0.54 -0.61 1.98 2.05 0.94 0.94 72 -0.51 -0.60 2.25 2.32 0.93 0.93 96 -0.57 2.66 0.91 120 -0.61 3.07 0.89 144 -0.63 3.51 0.86 168 -0.67 4.06 0.82 192 -0.60 4.61 0.78 216 -0.58 5.04 0.72 240 -0.43 5.55 0.65 264 -0.32 5.88 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 375 12 UTC = 349 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.16 0.99 0.98 0.95 0.95 48 -0.27 -0.21 1.26 1.25 0.96 0.96 72 -0.33 -0.29 1.63 1.61 0.95 0.95 96 -0.36 2.02 0.93 120 -0.43 2.55 0.90 144 -0.48 2.96 0.87 168 -0.49 3.38 0.84 192 -0.43 3.83 0.79 216 -0.51 4.21 0.75 240 -0.48 4.58 0.71 264 -0.52 4.95 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 406 12 UTC = 378 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.28 1.19 1.21 0.94 0.93 48 0.15 0.22 1.48 1.50 0.93 0.93 72 0.13 0.20 1.84 1.85 0.91 0.91 96 0.22 2.22 0.89 120 0.31 2.69 0.85 144 0.36 3.03 0.81 168 0.38 3.44 0.77 192 0.40 3.68 0.74 216 0.41 3.95 0.72 240 0.29 4.26 0.66 264 0.34 4.45 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 375 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.69 4.02 4.04 48 -0.75 -0.73 4.58 4.59 72 -0.77 -0.75 5.29 5.31 96 -0.77 5.96 120 -0.84 6.87 144 -0.82 7.77 168 -0.72 8.67 192 -0.76 9.40 216 -0.87 10.10 240 -0.81 10.83 264 -0.86 11.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 361 12 UTC = 338 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.54 4.44 4.60 48 -0.73 -0.62 5.61 5.76 72 -0.75 -0.62 7.06 7.20 96 -0.64 8.61 120 -0.60 10.11 144 -0.68 11.55 168 -0.72 13.01 192 -0.76 14.24 216 -0.78 15.54 240 -0.80 16.85 264 -0.80 17.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 392 12 UTC = 366 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.70 5.61 5.59 48 -0.97 -0.89 7.32 7.15 72 -1.02 -0.87 9.34 9.07 96 -0.86 11.17 120 -0.74 13.44 144 -0.76 15.53 168 -0.92 17.75 192 -0.80 20.18 216 -0.89 22.26 240 -0.71 24.29 264 -0.67 25.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 391 12 UTC = 365 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.08 -2.54 9.07 10.02 0.97 0.97 48 -3.22 -2.85 11.80 12.75 0.96 0.97 72 -2.99 -2.63 14.81 16.77 0.96 0.94 96 -2.03 21.29 0.93 120 -2.43 26.63 0.88 144 -2.72 32.35 0.84 168 -2.93 40.09 0.78 192 -1.87 47.01 0.70 216 -1.46 50.20 0.65 240 -1.94 53.78 0.57 264 -3.00 58.85 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.28 -7.45 12.31 13.16 0.97 0.97 48 -7.47 -7.08 15.30 16.64 0.97 0.97 72 -6.19 -5.88 18.89 21.38 0.96 0.95 96 -5.84 30.26 0.92 120 -7.88 38.75 0.88 144 -8.28 46.37 0.83 168 -7.25 54.23 0.78 192 -5.40 64.99 0.72 216 -6.99 73.04 0.62 240 -5.29 77.59 0.61 264 -4.76 83.95 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.56 -8.55 15.86 17.50 0.98 0.97 48 -7.71 -9.34 20.83 23.49 0.98 0.97 72 -7.21 -8.54 28.25 30.55 0.96 0.96 96 -10.03 42.58 0.93 120 -12.91 56.04 0.89 144 -14.60 69.12 0.84 168 -14.93 78.40 0.79 192 -12.79 91.64 0.75 216 -12.40 105.34 0.67 240 -7.03 111.73 0.62 264 -7.19 119.91 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.52 1.68 1.62 0.87 0.88 48 -0.38 -0.46 1.81 1.76 0.88 0.90 72 -0.30 -0.38 2.00 1.91 0.87 0.88 96 -0.41 2.11 0.87 120 -0.51 2.67 0.80 144 -0.58 3.13 0.70 168 -0.48 3.28 0.69 192 -0.29 3.57 0.66 216 -0.34 4.06 0.53 240 -0.24 4.14 0.54 264 -0.13 4.21 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.05 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.90 48 0.03 0.04 1.04 1.09 0.92 0.91 72 0.07 0.09 1.30 1.34 0.90 0.90 96 0.05 1.67 0.86 120 0.00 1.99 0.81 144 -0.05 2.46 0.74 168 -0.01 2.56 0.73 192 0.01 2.82 0.70 216 -0.01 3.08 0.64 240 0.19 3.37 0.59 264 0.18 3.47 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.06 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.92 48 0.14 -0.06 1.28 1.29 0.90 0.91 72 0.05 -0.17 1.53 1.59 0.89 0.87 96 -0.25 2.00 0.85 120 -0.28 2.25 0.80 144 -0.30 2.66 0.73 168 -0.45 2.94 0.69 192 -0.49 3.26 0.64 216 -0.36 3.44 0.61 240 -0.17 3.55 0.59 264 -0.13 3.67 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.68 4.28 4.13 48 -0.75 -0.69 4.64 4.38 72 -0.83 -0.75 5.12 4.88 96 -0.89 5.54 120 -0.88 6.35 144 -0.94 7.04 168 -0.89 7.77 192 -0.74 8.21 216 -0.64 8.74 240 -0.55 9.00 264 -0.41 9.20 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.82 4.01 4.13 48 -0.52 -0.95 4.75 4.82 72 -0.53 -0.89 5.83 5.91 96 -0.76 7.18 120 -0.75 8.77 144 -0.83 10.33 168 -0.99 11.17 192 -1.14 11.84 216 -0.96 12.77 240 -0.80 12.88 264 -0.71 13.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.93 5.27 5.59 48 -0.94 -1.22 6.73 7.17 72 -1.14 -1.47 8.45 8.70 96 -1.26 10.70 120 -1.19 12.55 144 -1.32 14.74 168 -1.62 17.05 192 -1.96 18.54 216 -1.64 19.72 240 -1.60 20.83 264 -1.79 21.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 40 ---------------------------------------------------------