VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY 2015 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.06 0.80 0.82 0.99 0.99 17.9 19.2 48 -0.07 -0.11 1.35 1.38 0.98 0.98 27.0 28.4 72 -0.09 -0.13 2.02 2.02 0.95 0.95 35.2 36.6 96 -0.15 2.85 0.90 45.6 120 -0.15 3.77 0.83 54.5 144 -0.13 4.70 0.73 62.3 168 -0.09 5.64 0.62 69.3 192 -0.12 6.33 0.52 73.7 216 -0.10 6.94 0.44 77.4 240 -0.09 7.39 0.38 80.3 264 -0.08 7.58 0.35 81.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.42 5.96 6.05 1.00 1.00 10.8 10.8 48 0.24 -0.12 12.06 12.18 0.99 0.99 19.3 19.2 72 0.68 0.26 20.23 20.17 0.97 0.97 28.2 28.1 96 0.62 30.16 0.93 37.0 120 1.11 41.28 0.87 45.4 144 1.62 52.32 0.79 53.2 168 2.14 63.35 0.69 59.7 192 2.22 73.48 0.58 64.8 216 2.82 82.39 0.48 68.7 240 3.66 88.36 0.41 71.6 264 4.42 93.02 0.35 73.9 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.93 8.40 8.47 1.00 1.00 9.3 9.4 48 -1.51 -1.76 16.40 16.74 0.99 0.99 16.1 16.1 72 -2.11 -2.38 27.01 26.91 0.97 0.97 23.4 23.4 96 -2.86 40.11 0.94 31.4 120 -3.23 54.83 0.89 39.0 144 -3.42 69.16 0.81 46.0 168 -3.51 84.10 0.72 52.3 192 -3.57 98.87 0.62 57.4 216 -2.44 112.96 0.51 61.9 240 -0.89 122.65 0.43 65.1 264 0.72 130.75 0.36 67.6 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.45 0.45 0.99 0.99 48 0.03 0.03 0.80 0.80 0.97 0.97 72 0.02 0.02 1.20 1.19 0.93 0.94 96 0.01 1.64 0.88 120 -0.02 2.11 0.80 144 -0.04 2.54 0.70 168 -0.05 2.96 0.60 192 -0.06 3.31 0.51 216 -0.04 3.63 0.41 240 -0.01 3.81 0.34 264 0.03 3.99 0.29 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.06 0.64 0.63 0.98 0.98 48 -0.15 -0.14 1.08 1.07 0.95 0.95 72 -0.20 -0.19 1.57 1.56 0.89 0.89 96 -0.23 2.09 0.80 120 -0.26 2.61 0.69 144 -0.27 3.06 0.57 168 -0.28 3.47 0.45 192 -0.26 3.73 0.36 216 -0.23 3.91 0.30 240 -0.20 4.02 0.26 264 -0.15 4.17 0.20 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.10 2.05 2.05 48 -0.20 -0.18 3.61 3.57 72 -0.26 -0.24 5.24 5.16 96 -0.29 6.90 120 -0.34 8.60 144 -0.39 10.16 168 -0.40 11.52 192 -0.37 12.67 216 -0.33 13.63 240 -0.31 14.35 264 -0.29 14.90 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.10 3.27 3.22 48 -0.26 -0.22 5.32 5.30 72 -0.35 -0.29 7.50 7.41 96 -0.33 9.82 120 -0.41 12.25 144 -0.48 14.47 168 -0.53 16.48 192 -0.47 18.37 216 -0.42 20.12 240 -0.40 21.51 264 -0.38 22.61 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.29 3.08 2.98 0.97 0.98 26.0 25.0 48 -0.58 -0.48 4.57 4.36 0.95 0.95 34.2 32.5 72 -0.83 -0.71 5.69 5.37 0.92 0.93 38.8 36.9 96 -0.75 6.26 0.90 40.0 120 -0.76 7.15 0.88 43.0 144 -0.92 8.30 0.84 45.7 168 -1.11 9.41 0.81 48.3 192 -1.38 10.14 0.79 50.5 216 -1.69 11.04 0.76 52.5 240 -1.93 12.16 0.72 54.1 264 -2.43 12.73 0.70 55.5 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.04 4.50 4.38 0.98 0.98 20.3 20.3 48 -1.98 -2.00 7.30 7.18 0.96 0.96 28.8 28.5 72 -3.78 -3.63 9.91 9.79 0.93 0.92 34.4 34.3 96 -4.95 12.04 0.88 38.8 120 -5.74 13.93 0.84 42.5 144 -6.21 15.88 0.79 46.0 168 -6.49 17.71 0.74 49.3 192 -6.88 19.31 0.68 52.1 216 -6.85 21.12 0.61 55.0 240 -6.64 22.67 0.54 58.0 264 -6.35 24.44 0.47 60.6 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.06 0.41 0.42 0.96 0.97 48 -0.03 -0.04 0.64 0.65 0.90 0.91 72 -0.04 -0.05 0.79 0.80 0.85 0.87 96 -0.06 0.91 0.83 120 -0.06 1.01 0.79 144 -0.05 1.09 0.76 168 -0.06 1.18 0.72 192 -0.06 1.27 0.68 216 -0.06 1.36 0.64 240 -0.03 1.46 0.59 264 -0.01 1.52 0.55 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.39 0.38 0.93 0.93 48 -0.01 -0.03 0.56 0.55 0.86 0.85 72 -0.05 -0.06 0.68 0.67 0.79 0.78 96 -0.09 0.76 0.71 120 -0.11 0.82 0.66 144 -0.13 0.87 0.62 168 -0.14 0.92 0.58 192 -0.15 0.98 0.53 216 -0.15 1.04 0.49 240 -0.14 1.08 0.45 264 -0.11 1.12 0.43 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.16 1.43 1.41 48 -0.29 -0.26 2.10 2.06 72 -0.35 -0.33 2.58 2.54 96 -0.37 2.90 120 -0.39 3.22 144 -0.33 3.55 168 -0.29 3.87 192 -0.26 4.15 216 -0.20 4.41 240 -0.14 4.62 264 -0.11 4.72 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.42 3.08 3.06 48 -0.73 -0.75 4.71 4.66 72 -0.99 -1.00 5.82 5.86 96 -1.17 6.81 120 -1.27 7.57 144 -1.34 8.25 168 -1.40 8.91 192 -1.50 9.52 216 -1.58 10.19 240 -1.60 10.82 264 -1.57 11.35 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.05 0.95 0.98 1.00 1.00 12.0 12.1 48 0.04 0.06 1.93 1.94 0.98 0.98 21.7 21.6 72 0.03 0.06 3.08 3.05 0.96 0.96 30.6 30.3 96 0.05 4.47 0.91 39.0 120 0.04 5.78 0.85 46.2 144 0.03 7.01 0.78 51.9 168 -0.01 8.26 0.69 56.9 192 0.02 9.37 0.59 61.3 216 0.04 10.30 0.51 64.7 240 0.05 11.09 0.43 67.0 264 0.11 11.66 0.38 68.6 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.01 8.25 8.39 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.7 48 -0.38 -0.31 17.54 17.54 0.99 0.99 18.0 18.0 72 -0.78 -0.68 29.19 28.91 0.97 0.97 25.9 25.8 96 -1.10 43.18 0.93 33.7 120 -1.63 57.32 0.87 40.7 144 -1.84 70.26 0.80 46.3 168 -2.03 83.86 0.72 51.6 192 -1.95 95.92 0.64 56.2 216 -1.95 106.57 0.55 59.7 240 -1.87 118.74 0.44 63.2 264 -1.70 127.08 0.36 65.7 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.19 10.64 10.87 1.00 1.00 8.0 8.1 48 -1.08 -1.17 22.20 22.13 0.99 0.99 14.4 14.4 72 -2.16 -2.14 36.61 36.07 0.97 0.97 20.9 20.8 96 -3.23 53.31 0.94 27.5 120 -3.96 71.73 0.89 34.0 144 -4.08 90.33 0.82 39.8 168 -4.20 109.63 0.73 45.2 192 -4.16 125.78 0.65 49.8 216 -3.87 140.11 0.56 53.4 240 -3.51 156.05 0.46 56.8 264 -3.33 168.44 0.36 59.4 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.51 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 -0.05 -0.05 0.98 0.99 0.97 0.97 72 -0.09 -0.09 1.47 1.47 0.93 0.93 96 -0.11 2.00 0.87 120 -0.15 2.53 0.79 144 -0.18 3.01 0.70 168 -0.18 3.44 0.61 192 -0.19 3.80 0.53 216 -0.18 4.14 0.44 240 -0.20 4.46 0.35 264 -0.21 4.72 0.27 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.64 0.64 0.98 0.98 48 0.01 0.00 1.16 1.16 0.95 0.95 72 0.00 -0.01 1.65 1.67 0.89 0.89 96 -0.02 2.19 0.81 120 0.02 2.65 0.71 144 0.04 3.04 0.62 168 0.04 3.40 0.53 192 0.06 3.66 0.45 216 0.09 3.89 0.37 240 0.14 4.15 0.28 264 0.12 4.31 0.23 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 2.36 2.37 48 -0.13 -0.13 4.48 4.46 72 -0.17 -0.17 6.46 6.42 96 -0.19 8.48 120 -0.19 10.36 144 -0.15 12.07 168 -0.17 13.71 192 -0.14 15.13 216 -0.13 16.31 240 -0.16 17.40 264 -0.22 18.21 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.12 3.25 3.30 48 -0.24 -0.26 5.83 5.82 72 -0.31 -0.33 8.35 8.32 96 -0.38 10.96 120 -0.30 13.63 144 -0.25 16.51 168 -0.28 19.27 192 -0.23 21.60 216 -0.14 23.50 240 -0.16 25.11 264 -0.27 26.46 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.51 -2.23 8.23 7.66 0.97 0.98 48 -3.08 -1.63 10.43 10.35 0.97 0.97 72 -2.24 -1.16 13.81 13.96 0.96 0.96 96 -1.42 18.60 0.94 120 -2.98 23.40 0.92 144 -4.18 28.85 0.89 168 -4.62 34.78 0.80 192 -6.12 42.02 0.72 216 -8.97 49.96 0.62 240 -7.78 53.17 0.61 264 -5.36 54.37 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.26 -6.19 11.71 10.97 0.98 0.98 48 -6.63 -5.56 14.49 14.01 0.98 0.98 72 -5.58 -4.86 18.96 18.84 0.97 0.98 96 -5.37 27.02 0.96 120 -6.70 35.03 0.94 144 -8.09 42.97 0.90 168 -8.01 51.18 0.81 192 -7.33 61.15 0.73 216 -8.38 70.99 0.69 240 -7.22 76.75 0.68 264 -6.29 81.59 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.75 -7.52 16.51 14.57 0.98 0.98 48 -8.56 -7.74 21.29 20.36 0.98 0.99 72 -8.83 -7.41 27.39 27.39 0.98 0.98 96 -9.40 38.86 0.96 120 -12.36 51.56 0.94 144 -14.59 65.07 0.91 168 -15.19 77.21 0.84 192 -13.54 91.03 0.75 216 -13.42 105.27 0.70 240 -12.36 116.48 0.69 264 -11.50 124.11 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.68 1.51 1.81 0.91 0.91 48 -0.42 -0.68 1.74 2.00 0.93 0.93 72 -0.43 -0.67 1.98 2.23 0.93 0.92 96 -0.70 2.54 0.91 120 -0.62 2.89 0.89 144 -0.53 3.32 0.86 168 -0.39 3.77 0.81 192 -0.20 4.28 0.74 216 -0.06 4.64 0.67 240 -0.16 4.87 0.64 264 -0.29 5.30 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.01 0.87 0.83 0.93 0.92 48 0.08 0.03 1.05 0.99 0.94 0.94 72 0.05 0.03 1.27 1.23 0.93 0.94 96 -0.02 1.55 0.92 120 -0.06 1.88 0.89 144 -0.12 2.26 0.85 168 -0.17 2.65 0.78 192 -0.10 2.95 0.70 216 -0.04 3.15 0.66 240 -0.10 3.41 0.65 264 -0.15 3.63 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.08 1.00 0.97 0.91 0.92 48 -0.02 0.00 1.22 1.20 0.91 0.92 72 -0.07 -0.01 1.47 1.48 0.89 0.90 96 -0.04 1.80 0.85 120 -0.08 2.10 0.82 144 -0.01 2.40 0.78 168 0.02 2.60 0.74 192 0.07 2.88 0.70 216 0.12 3.05 0.67 240 0.19 3.18 0.65 264 0.25 3.36 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.89 3.67 3.94 48 -0.66 -0.89 4.07 4.43 72 -0.67 -0.93 4.49 4.99 96 -1.01 5.74 120 -1.04 6.46 144 -1.14 7.12 168 -1.33 8.07 192 -1.40 8.96 216 -1.35 9.73 240 -1.29 10.16 264 -1.30 10.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.71 3.95 4.04 48 -0.65 -0.81 4.71 4.86 72 -0.67 -0.83 5.55 5.72 96 -0.84 7.17 120 -0.78 8.36 144 -0.72 9.61 168 -0.84 10.72 192 -0.80 12.08 216 -0.56 13.15 240 -0.29 14.17 264 -0.15 14.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.75 6.02 5.81 48 -0.57 -0.89 7.52 7.48 72 -0.80 -1.01 9.06 8.94 96 -0.91 10.99 120 -0.92 12.79 144 -0.70 15.03 168 -0.85 16.82 192 -0.95 19.48 216 -0.35 21.48 240 0.24 23.24 264 0.55 23.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.11 -3.94 8.66 9.44 0.98 0.97 48 -5.45 -6.11 11.24 12.65 0.98 0.97 72 -6.36 -7.88 16.09 17.50 0.96 0.96 96 -7.83 22.45 0.92 120 -2.97 28.70 0.84 144 1.10 35.11 0.74 168 -4.57 44.01 0.68 192 -9.62 54.67 0.60 216 -7.42 60.63 0.53 240 -7.66 60.88 0.55 264 -4.31 64.47 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.17 -7.01 12.89 11.73 0.98 0.98 48 -10.63 -10.02 16.75 16.86 0.98 0.98 72 -12.38 -13.65 24.03 24.36 0.97 0.98 96 -14.72 33.91 0.95 120 -11.81 45.35 0.88 144 -5.94 55.70 0.81 168 -4.80 65.74 0.75 192 -12.71 79.91 0.65 216 -17.01 97.24 0.51 240 -20.59 101.61 0.53 264 -25.00 106.08 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.86 -7.93 16.43 15.59 0.99 0.98 48 -14.32 -12.65 23.26 22.55 0.98 0.99 72 -17.29 -19.12 33.61 34.25 0.98 0.98 96 -22.73 50.07 0.95 120 -22.27 65.76 0.90 144 -17.17 80.77 0.83 168 -10.35 93.49 0.77 192 -21.06 111.83 0.69 216 -30.57 134.57 0.55 240 -35.43 142.20 0.55 264 -48.54 152.43 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.14 1.29 1.16 0.92 0.90 48 -0.48 -0.16 1.43 1.31 0.94 0.93 72 -0.54 -0.27 1.63 1.52 0.93 0.93 96 -0.38 1.91 0.90 120 -0.50 2.33 0.86 144 -0.31 3.05 0.78 168 0.12 3.50 0.70 192 -0.03 3.82 0.63 216 -0.48 4.39 0.52 240 -0.81 4.65 0.49 264 -1.24 4.98 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.10 0.84 0.80 0.94 0.94 48 -0.13 -0.15 1.04 1.00 0.95 0.95 72 -0.19 -0.27 1.39 1.29 0.93 0.94 96 -0.34 1.85 0.89 120 -0.50 2.43 0.83 144 -0.38 2.78 0.76 168 0.03 3.21 0.69 192 -0.15 3.53 0.62 216 -0.46 3.97 0.56 240 -0.66 4.23 0.54 264 -1.18 4.48 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.33 1.13 1.07 0.95 0.95 48 0.30 0.28 1.44 1.32 0.93 0.94 72 0.23 0.19 1.83 1.65 0.90 0.91 96 0.09 2.17 0.85 120 0.02 2.74 0.77 144 -0.12 3.17 0.71 168 -0.03 3.60 0.65 192 0.12 3.91 0.59 216 0.27 4.36 0.46 240 0.34 4.27 0.48 264 0.21 4.25 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.44 3.87 3.74 48 -0.73 -0.52 4.35 4.14 72 -0.75 -0.56 4.97 4.76 96 -0.69 5.74 120 -0.82 6.65 144 -0.64 7.53 168 -0.34 8.50 192 -0.44 8.99 216 -0.46 9.68 240 -0.55 9.66 264 -0.84 10.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.50 4.03 3.95 48 -0.53 -0.64 4.88 4.81 72 -0.72 -0.75 6.09 6.04 96 -0.93 7.87 120 -1.00 9.85 144 -1.02 11.44 168 -1.33 13.12 192 -1.16 14.62 216 -1.27 16.74 240 -1.48 16.97 264 -1.78 17.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.51 5.22 4.98 48 -0.57 -0.55 6.62 6.17 72 -0.93 -0.73 8.35 8.16 96 -0.88 11.31 120 -0.75 14.76 144 -1.13 16.91 168 -1.47 19.08 192 -1.27 20.97 216 -1.30 24.05 240 -1.61 25.07 264 -2.25 26.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -1.02 11.86 10.12 0.97 0.96 48 -0.86 -1.44 14.69 13.43 0.96 0.95 72 -0.26 -0.34 18.49 16.85 0.95 0.94 96 0.51 20.94 0.91 120 0.79 25.99 0.88 144 0.97 31.85 0.85 168 2.28 37.47 0.77 192 2.22 42.91 0.71 216 1.41 47.97 0.67 240 2.23 49.73 0.66 264 3.16 51.95 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 108 12 UTC = 108 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.27 -2.69 11.83 12.08 0.97 0.97 48 -2.67 -2.44 15.63 16.39 0.97 0.97 72 -1.02 -0.09 21.35 21.76 0.95 0.95 96 2.20 28.98 0.93 120 3.39 35.19 0.91 144 3.72 43.91 0.88 168 5.74 51.55 0.81 192 5.24 61.24 0.75 216 3.99 69.20 0.72 240 4.25 70.94 0.71 264 5.73 76.40 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 118 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.80 -5.34 20.28 18.67 0.97 0.97 48 -6.15 -4.11 25.19 24.92 0.97 0.97 72 -3.26 0.15 32.98 33.13 0.95 0.95 96 3.73 45.17 0.93 120 5.83 53.47 0.92 144 5.49 66.20 0.88 168 5.45 77.12 0.84 192 5.40 91.32 0.78 216 3.40 106.78 0.75 240 3.58 113.22 0.72 264 5.86 117.82 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 118 12 UTC = 117 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.83 2.21 2.05 0.87 0.87 48 -0.69 -0.73 2.35 2.23 0.89 0.89 72 -0.60 -0.66 2.54 2.43 0.89 0.89 96 -0.53 2.74 0.86 120 -0.43 3.13 0.84 144 -0.40 3.45 0.81 168 -0.36 3.88 0.77 192 -0.34 4.32 0.71 216 -0.33 4.58 0.68 240 -0.24 4.81 0.63 264 -0.10 5.00 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.05 1.06 1.08 0.91 0.91 48 0.02 0.07 1.28 1.30 0.93 0.92 72 0.06 0.12 1.58 1.56 0.91 0.91 96 0.18 1.90 0.88 120 0.17 2.25 0.86 144 0.14 2.58 0.83 168 0.14 2.95 0.79 192 0.07 3.30 0.75 216 0.03 3.68 0.73 240 0.04 3.91 0.69 264 0.12 4.12 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 154 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 0.00 1.30 1.27 0.91 0.91 48 -0.01 0.05 1.64 1.60 0.90 0.90 72 0.06 0.18 1.99 1.96 0.88 0.88 96 0.23 2.35 0.84 120 0.27 2.72 0.80 144 0.31 3.06 0.77 168 0.15 3.51 0.72 192 0.22 3.75 0.69 216 0.18 4.04 0.65 240 0.26 4.19 0.61 264 0.24 4.31 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.75 4.13 4.03 48 -0.85 -0.67 4.76 4.67 72 -0.85 -0.57 5.49 5.39 96 -0.52 6.16 120 -0.54 7.05 144 -0.72 7.74 168 -0.61 8.54 192 -0.39 9.15 216 -0.51 9.50 240 -0.57 9.82 264 -0.60 10.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.63 4.59 4.73 48 -1.08 -0.78 5.67 5.82 72 -1.19 -0.91 6.96 6.95 96 -1.00 8.35 120 -1.02 9.42 144 -1.23 10.59 168 -1.28 11.76 192 -1.03 12.92 216 -1.00 13.75 240 -0.97 14.03 264 -1.21 14.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 151 12 UTC = 148 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.62 6.29 6.37 48 -1.10 -1.09 7.96 8.19 72 -1.40 -1.42 9.76 9.91 96 -1.52 11.89 120 -1.65 13.59 144 -1.73 15.01 168 -1.71 16.73 192 -1.48 18.69 216 -1.46 20.46 240 -1.34 21.27 264 -1.51 21.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 149 12 UTC = 146 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.15 -3.04 6.03 7.24 0.98 0.97 48 -2.21 -3.40 9.07 11.60 0.97 0.97 72 -2.27 -3.08 12.82 17.42 0.97 0.97 96 -3.70 24.80 0.95 120 -4.11 32.14 0.91 144 -4.20 35.83 0.87 168 -0.29 36.79 0.88 192 -0.44 50.26 0.80 216 -2.20 56.20 0.74 240 -1.98 57.95 0.79 264 -6.19 63.61 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.14 -9.35 11.85 12.63 0.97 0.97 48 -9.37 -8.74 16.45 16.43 0.97 0.98 72 -8.63 -7.50 21.25 22.42 0.96 0.97 96 -8.66 33.92 0.91 120 -9.12 47.24 0.91 144 -9.28 53.04 0.83 168 -4.72 54.97 0.86 192 -4.86 72.76 0.84 216 -7.44 73.43 0.74 240 -6.46 75.60 0.74 264 -7.88 86.55 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.60 -10.76 13.85 16.82 0.97 0.96 48 -10.66 -12.06 20.71 22.82 0.98 0.98 72 -10.82 -9.08 29.09 28.46 0.96 0.97 96 -8.27 46.47 0.92 120 -10.08 63.05 0.90 144 -12.32 71.55 0.87 168 -8.79 74.91 0.83 192 -9.01 94.12 0.80 216 -10.08 97.88 0.73 240 -7.58 101.70 0.70 264 -7.45 116.90 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.46 1.17 1.26 0.85 0.86 48 -0.21 -0.33 1.28 1.38 0.86 0.84 72 -0.14 -0.21 1.47 1.62 0.88 0.88 96 -0.27 1.94 0.86 120 -0.32 2.40 0.81 144 -0.09 2.56 0.77 168 -0.14 2.72 0.74 192 -0.14 3.01 0.72 216 -0.15 2.92 0.66 240 -0.18 3.03 0.64 264 0.28 3.24 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.10 0.89 0.96 0.88 0.89 48 -0.04 -0.07 1.06 1.09 0.87 0.90 72 -0.03 -0.01 1.30 1.29 0.87 0.87 96 0.07 1.88 0.79 120 0.06 2.29 0.77 144 -0.10 2.53 0.74 168 -0.10 2.67 0.74 192 -0.14 3.03 0.68 216 -0.09 3.25 0.60 240 -0.09 3.31 0.52 264 0.10 3.61 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.19 1.01 0.95 0.86 0.92 48 0.15 0.03 1.24 1.14 0.88 0.90 72 0.03 -0.04 1.61 1.56 0.86 0.84 96 0.06 1.99 0.85 120 0.14 2.33 0.79 144 0.02 2.80 0.68 168 0.00 2.87 0.72 192 0.05 3.22 0.67 216 0.16 3.47 0.59 240 0.12 3.74 0.54 264 -0.08 3.82 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.27 3.65 3.64 48 -0.24 -0.22 4.08 4.21 72 -0.14 -0.07 4.75 5.11 96 0.07 5.99 120 0.05 6.94 144 0.03 7.07 168 -0.20 7.68 192 -0.27 8.45 216 0.06 9.46 240 -0.20 8.99 264 0.24 9.36 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.61 4.07 4.24 48 -0.67 -0.66 5.02 5.07 72 -0.85 -0.79 6.04 6.21 96 -0.65 7.66 120 -0.35 9.18 144 -0.73 9.25 168 -0.83 10.78 192 -0.49 11.83 216 0.09 13.45 240 -0.71 13.75 264 -0.39 14.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.46 5.61 5.23 48 -0.80 -0.27 7.06 6.77 72 -0.93 0.00 8.24 8.79 96 -0.12 10.14 120 0.17 11.41 144 0.14 12.71 168 -0.28 15.06 192 0.21 17.51 216 0.72 19.58 240 -0.21 21.45 264 -0.35 22.36 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.00 -4.53 10.49 10.56 0.71 0.71 48 -5.90 -4.29 11.56 11.20 0.79 0.81 72 -6.23 -4.96 12.36 11.97 0.76 0.79 96 -4.75 12.36 0.74 120 -4.75 12.97 0.72 144 -4.56 13.84 0.69 168 -4.38 14.45 0.67 192 -4.32 14.70 0.64 216 -4.74 15.22 0.57 240 -4.23 15.91 0.55 264 -4.18 16.38 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -12.51 -11.34 15.88 15.27 0.61 0.59 48 -14.04 -11.99 17.31 16.08 0.75 0.71 72 -15.01 -13.24 18.47 17.25 0.74 0.71 96 -13.94 18.12 0.68 120 -14.43 18.89 0.68 144 -14.29 19.21 0.68 168 -14.10 19.38 0.66 192 -14.09 19.57 0.63 216 -14.46 19.98 0.58 240 -14.30 20.46 0.59 264 -14.29 21.17 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.20 -10.21 16.54 16.04 0.63 0.65 48 -12.65 -11.66 18.70 17.78 0.76 0.74 72 -14.61 -13.91 20.72 20.20 0.78 0.76 96 -15.60 22.17 0.75 120 -16.82 23.81 0.75 144 -17.23 24.84 0.73 168 -17.48 25.46 0.70 192 -17.93 26.75 0.65 216 -18.45 28.14 0.62 240 -18.02 28.42 0.64 264 -17.82 29.34 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 73 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.50 1.13 1.11 0.42 0.41 48 -0.51 -0.50 1.13 1.11 0.51 0.52 72 -0.52 -0.52 1.14 1.11 0.56 0.55 96 -0.56 1.16 0.55 120 -0.59 1.22 0.53 144 -0.60 1.27 0.53 168 -0.59 1.28 0.54 192 -0.60 1.34 0.52 216 -0.60 1.38 0.50 240 -0.62 1.43 0.49 264 -0.63 1.42 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 -0.04 0.83 0.83 0.49 0.50 48 0.07 -0.06 0.87 0.87 0.57 0.58 72 0.02 -0.09 0.92 0.92 0.59 0.61 96 -0.14 0.97 0.58 120 -0.16 1.03 0.57 144 -0.16 1.09 0.56 168 -0.17 1.14 0.53 192 -0.20 1.16 0.52 216 -0.18 1.19 0.52 240 -0.19 1.20 0.53 264 -0.18 1.22 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.13 0.68 0.65 0.56 0.56 48 0.17 0.08 0.76 0.74 0.61 0.63 72 0.12 0.03 0.82 0.80 0.62 0.62 96 -0.02 0.86 0.60 120 -0.09 0.92 0.61 144 -0.12 0.96 0.59 168 -0.13 0.99 0.58 192 -0.15 1.04 0.56 216 -0.14 1.08 0.55 240 -0.12 1.11 0.54 264 -0.12 1.13 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.61 3.25 3.21 48 -0.60 -0.71 3.50 3.43 72 -0.58 -0.71 3.81 3.62 96 -0.73 3.82 120 -0.75 4.05 144 -0.69 4.34 168 -0.66 4.62 192 -0.68 4.83 216 -0.72 4.96 240 -0.64 5.08 264 -0.53 5.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.70 3.50 3.63 48 -0.87 -0.85 3.83 3.91 72 -1.01 -0.92 4.12 4.24 96 -0.97 4.54 120 -0.96 4.92 144 -0.88 5.23 168 -0.84 5.57 192 -0.85 5.76 216 -0.90 6.11 240 -0.89 6.29 264 -0.82 6.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -1.02 4.85 4.95 48 -0.92 -1.33 5.71 5.92 72 -1.18 -1.62 6.40 6.84 96 -1.90 7.63 120 -2.08 8.33 144 -2.16 8.79 168 -2.21 9.35 192 -2.39 10.05 216 -2.47 10.43 240 -2.40 10.88 264 -2.45 11.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.14 -3.28 10.36 10.10 0.98 0.97 48 -3.19 -3.82 12.96 13.17 0.98 0.97 72 -2.93 -3.55 17.17 17.26 0.96 0.96 96 -3.11 22.32 0.94 120 -1.90 28.75 0.90 144 -1.10 35.62 0.86 168 -1.83 43.10 0.80 192 -2.85 50.03 0.74 216 -2.90 55.64 0.67 240 -2.22 58.36 0.64 264 -0.20 60.09 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 382 12 UTC = 377 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.15 -5.86 12.74 12.66 0.98 0.98 48 -5.93 -6.22 16.48 16.91 0.98 0.98 72 -5.32 -5.71 23.12 23.45 0.97 0.97 96 -4.90 32.46 0.95 120 -3.61 42.42 0.91 144 -2.51 53.62 0.86 168 -1.83 63.61 0.81 192 -2.85 73.38 0.75 216 -2.91 83.30 0.69 240 -2.50 88.30 0.66 264 -2.01 93.07 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 391 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.89 -8.01 18.77 18.13 0.98 0.98 48 -9.12 -8.87 23.79 24.14 0.98 0.98 72 -9.06 -8.56 32.46 33.08 0.97 0.97 96 -8.49 46.01 0.95 120 -7.85 58.80 0.92 144 -7.25 74.50 0.88 168 -6.87 87.98 0.83 192 -7.99 101.77 0.77 216 -8.18 116.73 0.72 240 -7.72 125.67 0.68 264 -7.99 133.33 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 396 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.64 1.76 1.74 0.90 0.90 48 -0.60 -0.62 1.92 1.92 0.92 0.92 72 -0.57 -0.59 2.13 2.14 0.92 0.91 96 -0.55 2.45 0.90 120 -0.49 2.86 0.87 144 -0.41 3.34 0.82 168 -0.27 3.83 0.77 192 -0.21 4.24 0.72 216 -0.21 4.58 0.68 240 -0.23 4.84 0.64 264 -0.28 5.14 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 417 12 UTC = 412 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.93 48 -0.02 -0.02 1.17 1.16 0.94 0.94 72 -0.02 -0.02 1.50 1.46 0.93 0.93 96 -0.03 1.88 0.90 120 -0.06 2.29 0.87 144 -0.07 2.72 0.82 168 -0.03 3.14 0.76 192 -0.08 3.43 0.72 216 -0.09 3.73 0.68 240 -0.10 3.97 0.65 264 -0.15 4.18 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 445 12 UTC = 440 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.11 1.18 1.15 0.93 0.93 48 0.06 0.09 1.49 1.46 0.92 0.92 72 0.05 0.11 1.88 1.85 0.90 0.90 96 0.10 2.32 0.86 120 0.09 2.80 0.80 144 0.09 3.22 0.75 168 0.08 3.65 0.69 192 0.15 3.86 0.67 216 0.15 4.13 0.62 240 0.20 4.20 0.59 264 0.22 4.31 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 441 12 UTC = 435 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.72 3.86 3.85 48 -0.78 -0.69 4.38 4.37 72 -0.77 -0.66 5.04 5.03 96 -0.69 5.92 120 -0.76 6.81 144 -0.81 7.58 168 -0.78 8.45 192 -0.75 9.04 216 -0.73 9.61 240 -0.72 9.90 264 -0.77 10.23 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 395 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.67 4.20 4.25 48 -0.81 -0.78 5.18 5.24 72 -0.89 -0.84 6.46 6.50 96 -0.89 8.09 120 -0.92 9.53 144 -0.93 10.99 168 -1.02 12.36 192 -0.95 13.46 216 -0.90 14.52 240 -0.84 15.03 264 -0.95 15.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 427 12 UTC = 424 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.61 5.61 5.57 48 -0.75 -0.82 7.16 7.20 72 -1.01 -0.99 8.96 8.99 96 -1.05 11.23 120 -1.11 13.46 144 -1.13 15.55 168 -1.22 17.46 192 -1.16 19.26 216 -0.97 21.25 240 -0.80 22.34 264 -0.88 23.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 423 12 UTC = 419 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.46 8.35 10.48 0.98 0.97 48 -0.38 0.20 11.44 14.02 0.98 0.97 72 -0.36 0.69 15.87 19.35 0.97 0.96 96 0.73 26.36 0.93 120 1.90 31.99 0.91 144 2.33 38.79 0.86 168 1.94 45.56 0.81 192 0.97 51.95 0.74 216 0.20 59.21 0.65 240 0.89 63.45 0.64 264 3.31 66.64 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 37 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.07 -7.33 13.37 14.24 0.97 0.98 48 -7.54 -6.66 18.13 18.83 0.97 0.98 72 -7.43 -5.82 23.90 26.04 0.96 0.96 96 -5.48 35.75 0.94 120 -3.78 46.95 0.91 144 -3.26 55.45 0.88 168 -2.90 65.00 0.82 192 -5.41 76.28 0.74 216 -5.95 83.47 0.68 240 -6.03 89.63 0.63 264 -2.27 96.33 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.76 -10.64 17.20 19.24 0.98 0.98 48 -10.71 -11.00 24.36 26.35 0.98 0.98 72 -11.42 -10.08 33.95 36.24 0.97 0.96 96 -10.11 50.86 0.94 120 -9.17 63.42 0.92 144 -8.53 76.22 0.88 168 -8.77 92.12 0.83 192 -12.49 107.86 0.77 216 -11.51 118.30 0.72 240 -11.52 124.74 0.65 264 -5.84 135.70 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.79 1.73 1.88 0.85 0.88 48 -0.59 -0.74 1.87 2.03 0.88 0.89 72 -0.53 -0.69 2.06 2.19 0.88 0.88 96 -0.64 2.43 0.84 120 -0.59 2.70 0.81 144 -0.39 3.09 0.77 168 -0.45 3.47 0.71 192 -0.56 3.94 0.66 216 -0.58 4.17 0.61 240 -0.74 4.34 0.57 264 -0.58 4.69 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.12 0.93 0.98 0.92 0.93 48 -0.14 -0.12 1.15 1.17 0.93 0.93 72 -0.16 -0.09 1.44 1.53 0.92 0.92 96 -0.07 2.03 0.89 120 -0.10 2.40 0.85 144 -0.14 2.76 0.81 168 -0.13 3.12 0.75 192 -0.25 3.46 0.71 216 -0.20 3.80 0.62 240 -0.27 3.91 0.57 264 -0.16 4.12 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.06 1.09 1.14 0.91 0.89 48 0.03 -0.04 1.35 1.39 0.91 0.90 72 -0.05 -0.14 1.71 1.82 0.89 0.88 96 -0.19 2.22 0.86 120 -0.18 2.53 0.82 144 -0.20 2.89 0.77 168 -0.27 3.14 0.73 192 -0.28 3.35 0.71 216 -0.15 3.51 0.68 240 -0.11 3.85 0.60 264 -0.28 3.89 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.60 4.21 4.55 48 -0.63 -0.69 4.60 5.00 72 -0.59 -0.71 5.24 5.60 96 -0.79 6.41 120 -0.72 7.32 144 -0.80 7.67 168 -0.82 8.73 192 -0.72 9.36 216 -0.65 10.37 240 -0.65 10.29 264 -0.33 10.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.53 4.36 4.60 48 -0.82 -0.57 5.28 5.45 72 -0.93 -0.59 6.40 6.50 96 -0.72 8.03 120 -0.90 9.37 144 -1.38 10.47 168 -1.66 12.11 192 -1.39 13.00 216 -0.87 14.26 240 -1.55 14.94 264 -1.16 16.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.57 5.56 5.65 48 -0.75 -0.56 7.15 7.18 72 -0.91 -0.72 8.89 9.43 96 -1.15 10.97 120 -1.44 12.97 144 -1.55 15.63 168 -2.10 18.23 192 -1.45 20.53 216 -0.50 22.24 240 -1.22 23.35 264 -1.17 24.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 36 ---------------------------------------------------------