VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JULY 2015 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 0.77 0.79 0.99 0.99 19.5 19.8 48 0.00 0.01 1.29 1.31 0.98 0.97 29.4 29.7 72 0.03 0.04 1.85 1.86 0.95 0.95 37.9 38.2 96 0.08 2.52 0.90 46.4 120 0.12 3.31 0.83 54.1 144 0.16 4.10 0.74 61.2 168 0.23 4.78 0.64 66.5 192 0.28 5.41 0.53 71.6 216 0.40 5.77 0.47 74.3 240 0.49 6.10 0.40 76.5 264 0.53 6.44 0.32 78.2 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.23 5.74 5.85 1.00 1.00 13.3 13.4 48 0.58 0.67 11.48 11.54 0.99 0.99 23.1 23.3 72 1.26 1.32 18.48 18.32 0.96 0.96 32.8 32.8 96 2.10 26.57 0.92 42.3 120 2.56 35.67 0.86 50.7 144 2.89 45.28 0.77 58.2 168 3.39 54.76 0.66 64.7 192 3.78 63.03 0.55 70.4 216 4.63 68.53 0.46 74.1 240 5.33 73.44 0.38 76.9 264 5.55 78.03 0.30 78.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 0.30 8.88 8.98 1.00 1.00 12.5 12.5 48 -0.53 -0.22 17.59 17.68 0.99 0.99 22.0 22.2 72 -1.06 -0.76 28.71 28.30 0.96 0.96 31.8 31.8 96 -0.99 41.16 0.92 41.1 120 -1.23 55.09 0.85 49.3 144 -1.72 69.25 0.76 56.7 168 -1.88 82.43 0.66 62.5 192 -1.75 94.84 0.55 68.1 216 -1.32 103.68 0.47 71.5 240 -1.36 112.18 0.37 74.4 264 -1.74 118.54 0.30 76.0 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.07 0.45 0.45 0.99 0.99 48 0.07 0.08 0.77 0.78 0.96 0.96 72 0.06 0.07 1.12 1.12 0.91 0.91 96 0.06 1.47 0.84 120 0.04 1.82 0.76 144 0.01 2.16 0.66 168 -0.01 2.46 0.56 192 -0.03 2.72 0.46 216 -0.04 2.91 0.38 240 -0.07 3.09 0.30 264 -0.09 3.23 0.24 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 0.65 0.64 0.98 0.98 48 -0.13 -0.13 1.13 1.12 0.94 0.94 72 -0.18 -0.18 1.61 1.60 0.87 0.86 96 -0.20 2.06 0.77 120 -0.22 2.46 0.67 144 -0.24 2.82 0.56 168 -0.24 3.10 0.47 192 -0.21 3.39 0.37 216 -0.21 3.57 0.30 240 -0.22 3.72 0.24 264 -0.21 3.79 0.20 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.11 1.92 1.93 48 -0.22 -0.22 3.32 3.33 72 -0.27 -0.26 4.72 4.72 96 -0.28 6.12 120 -0.28 7.43 144 -0.31 8.67 168 -0.31 9.75 192 -0.28 10.70 216 -0.28 11.34 240 -0.29 11.87 264 -0.26 12.27 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.22 3.32 3.31 48 -0.34 -0.39 5.69 5.67 72 -0.46 -0.50 8.14 8.14 96 -0.55 10.60 120 -0.61 12.83 144 -0.65 14.97 168 -0.63 16.66 192 -0.58 18.27 216 -0.57 19.26 240 -0.57 20.23 264 -0.53 20.70 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.51 3.18 3.30 0.98 0.98 22.9 22.3 48 -0.80 -0.88 4.67 4.61 0.95 0.95 30.7 29.7 72 -1.09 -1.12 5.85 5.69 0.92 0.93 35.6 34.3 96 -1.40 6.87 0.90 38.6 120 -1.93 7.84 0.87 42.0 144 -2.54 8.88 0.84 44.7 168 -2.89 9.89 0.80 46.8 192 -3.01 10.79 0.76 48.9 216 -3.09 11.82 0.71 50.7 240 -3.06 12.66 0.68 52.1 264 -3.23 13.44 0.65 53.2 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.00 0.80 4.87 4.77 0.98 0.98 22.2 22.3 48 -0.41 -0.49 7.21 7.28 0.95 0.94 30.5 30.5 72 -1.82 -1.78 9.37 9.38 0.92 0.90 36.1 35.9 96 -2.83 11.35 0.86 40.2 120 -4.15 13.55 0.81 43.8 144 -5.29 15.66 0.76 47.1 168 -5.75 17.29 0.71 50.4 192 -5.83 18.73 0.65 53.1 216 -5.96 20.41 0.58 55.3 240 -6.08 22.16 0.51 57.1 264 -6.02 23.28 0.46 58.6 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.05 0.41 0.43 0.96 0.96 48 -0.01 -0.01 0.65 0.67 0.91 0.91 72 0.03 0.02 0.82 0.83 0.86 0.87 96 0.05 0.96 0.83 120 0.08 1.07 0.79 144 0.10 1.18 0.74 168 0.11 1.30 0.69 192 0.12 1.41 0.64 216 0.12 1.49 0.59 240 0.14 1.57 0.54 264 0.16 1.67 0.49 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.38 0.38 0.94 0.94 48 -0.03 -0.05 0.55 0.54 0.88 0.88 72 -0.06 -0.08 0.68 0.66 0.81 0.82 96 -0.09 0.74 0.77 120 -0.11 0.80 0.72 144 -0.13 0.87 0.68 168 -0.14 0.95 0.62 192 -0.14 1.00 0.57 216 -0.14 1.06 0.52 240 -0.15 1.11 0.47 264 -0.15 1.16 0.44 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.08 1.48 1.47 48 -0.22 -0.20 2.24 2.22 72 -0.27 -0.28 2.77 2.74 96 -0.35 3.18 120 -0.41 3.56 144 -0.43 3.87 168 -0.47 4.14 192 -0.46 4.40 216 -0.45 4.66 240 -0.45 4.83 264 -0.45 4.97 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.43 3.16 3.15 48 -0.69 -0.72 4.74 4.72 72 -0.83 -0.84 5.86 5.87 96 -0.86 6.80 120 -0.90 7.55 144 -0.94 8.24 168 -1.00 8.91 192 -1.03 9.54 216 -1.03 10.15 240 -1.02 10.63 264 -1.00 10.99 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 1.01 1.03 1.00 1.00 12.3 12.4 48 0.02 0.03 2.07 2.05 0.98 0.98 22.5 22.3 72 0.00 0.00 3.43 3.41 0.95 0.95 32.4 32.1 96 -0.04 4.92 0.89 41.3 120 -0.03 6.54 0.81 49.4 144 -0.01 7.82 0.73 55.6 168 -0.04 9.03 0.64 60.9 192 -0.07 10.35 0.53 65.3 216 -0.14 11.08 0.45 67.3 240 -0.23 11.65 0.40 69.0 264 -0.28 11.99 0.36 69.7 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.63 8.73 8.83 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.6 48 -1.19 -1.26 18.67 18.78 0.99 0.99 18.2 18.1 72 -1.77 -1.90 32.00 32.22 0.96 0.96 26.9 26.8 96 -2.56 47.39 0.91 35.1 120 -3.00 62.77 0.85 42.4 144 -3.25 77.64 0.77 48.7 168 -3.93 91.46 0.68 54.1 192 -4.63 105.53 0.57 58.8 216 -5.34 114.97 0.49 61.4 240 -6.34 120.71 0.43 63.2 264 -6.83 126.31 0.38 64.4 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.35 10.96 10.96 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.7 48 -1.15 -1.24 22.92 22.97 0.99 0.99 13.9 13.8 72 -1.96 -2.17 38.61 39.25 0.97 0.96 20.7 20.7 96 -3.12 58.18 0.92 27.8 120 -4.10 78.08 0.86 34.2 144 -5.19 98.11 0.78 40.2 168 -6.32 117.66 0.68 45.5 192 -7.00 136.86 0.57 50.3 216 -7.63 149.76 0.49 52.9 240 -8.60 157.22 0.43 54.9 264 -9.08 164.55 0.38 56.1 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.52 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.04 1.01 1.02 0.97 0.96 72 -0.05 -0.06 1.55 1.57 0.92 0.91 96 -0.08 2.15 0.84 120 -0.13 2.69 0.75 144 -0.17 3.18 0.65 168 -0.20 3.67 0.54 192 -0.23 4.12 0.42 216 -0.23 4.43 0.34 240 -0.25 4.59 0.29 264 -0.26 4.70 0.26 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.04 0.62 0.64 0.98 0.98 48 0.04 0.05 1.10 1.11 0.94 0.95 72 0.05 0.06 1.63 1.61 0.88 0.88 96 0.09 2.09 0.80 120 0.12 2.54 0.71 144 0.12 2.94 0.61 168 0.15 3.31 0.51 192 0.19 3.63 0.41 216 0.22 3.87 0.34 240 0.29 4.00 0.31 264 0.31 4.07 0.29 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.03 2.49 2.50 48 0.00 -0.03 4.74 4.74 72 -0.01 -0.01 7.06 7.07 96 -0.01 9.36 120 -0.09 11.48 144 -0.15 13.35 168 -0.20 15.05 192 -0.18 16.66 216 -0.20 17.51 240 -0.16 18.09 264 -0.07 18.57 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.09 3.28 3.31 48 -0.21 -0.21 5.83 5.86 72 -0.26 -0.27 8.59 8.66 96 -0.28 11.66 120 -0.35 14.59 144 -0.52 17.22 168 -0.64 19.83 192 -0.66 22.43 216 -0.73 23.78 240 -0.65 24.93 264 -0.64 25.52 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.66 -3.24 8.28 8.34 0.96 0.96 48 -1.71 -0.94 10.48 10.61 0.96 0.96 72 0.34 1.29 13.54 14.71 0.93 0.92 96 1.17 19.76 0.88 120 0.33 25.07 0.82 144 1.38 29.50 0.74 168 1.72 35.46 0.64 192 1.42 39.91 0.60 216 2.23 39.92 0.61 240 4.39 42.64 0.52 264 7.38 44.36 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.67 -6.15 10.07 10.20 0.97 0.97 48 -2.51 -2.68 12.26 11.87 0.97 0.97 72 1.09 1.11 17.30 17.22 0.94 0.94 96 2.24 24.81 0.91 120 2.30 31.90 0.87 144 3.73 39.71 0.79 168 4.86 48.26 0.71 192 5.15 57.32 0.63 216 5.34 59.85 0.61 240 6.15 61.71 0.57 264 8.60 64.80 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.30 -6.55 13.49 13.43 0.98 0.98 48 -4.69 -4.53 19.14 18.72 0.97 0.97 72 -2.14 -2.23 28.08 27.76 0.95 0.95 96 -2.73 39.83 0.92 120 -4.30 52.52 0.87 144 -3.78 65.86 0.81 168 -3.46 79.43 0.73 192 -1.91 95.03 0.64 216 -3.09 103.92 0.59 240 -4.60 106.34 0.57 264 -3.93 110.76 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.56 1.28 1.74 0.87 0.86 48 -0.02 -0.43 1.51 1.85 0.90 0.90 72 0.18 -0.26 1.79 2.00 0.88 0.89 96 -0.14 2.31 0.85 120 0.00 2.74 0.79 144 0.05 3.19 0.67 168 0.05 3.52 0.60 192 0.02 3.92 0.55 216 -0.02 4.17 0.51 240 -0.12 4.13 0.50 264 -0.19 4.20 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.17 0.81 0.86 0.87 0.85 48 0.16 0.20 0.99 1.03 0.89 0.88 72 0.17 0.20 1.22 1.24 0.87 0.87 96 0.19 1.49 0.83 120 0.18 1.75 0.78 144 0.14 2.07 0.72 168 0.10 2.37 0.65 192 0.09 2.67 0.57 216 0.05 2.86 0.53 240 -0.07 2.93 0.54 264 -0.13 3.05 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.05 0.88 0.85 0.88 0.89 48 -0.02 -0.03 1.11 1.04 0.86 0.89 72 -0.04 -0.05 1.36 1.32 0.85 0.86 96 -0.08 1.64 0.80 120 -0.17 1.96 0.74 144 -0.18 2.17 0.69 168 -0.15 2.38 0.64 192 -0.02 2.65 0.57 216 -0.02 2.81 0.54 240 -0.09 2.90 0.56 264 -0.14 2.96 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -1.13 3.51 3.76 48 -0.85 -1.18 4.01 4.34 72 -0.92 -1.24 4.69 5.06 96 -1.35 5.74 120 -1.50 6.41 144 -1.47 7.08 168 -1.47 7.81 192 -1.45 8.46 216 -1.41 8.71 240 -1.53 8.81 264 -1.51 8.89 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.46 3.65 3.70 48 -0.66 -0.49 4.43 4.38 72 -0.62 -0.37 5.49 5.44 96 -0.40 6.58 120 -0.34 7.78 144 -0.25 8.80 168 -0.12 9.98 192 0.27 11.27 216 0.32 11.73 240 0.43 11.75 264 0.45 12.23 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.62 5.81 5.49 48 -0.87 -0.75 7.56 7.16 72 -0.91 -0.76 9.69 9.27 96 -0.93 11.55 120 -1.06 14.00 144 -0.94 16.07 168 -0.61 18.01 192 -0.27 20.08 216 -0.13 21.39 240 0.07 21.36 264 0.28 22.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.10 -1.65 7.77 8.19 0.96 0.96 48 -3.11 -3.64 10.08 10.35 0.96 0.96 72 -2.77 -3.77 12.48 13.13 0.94 0.94 96 0.42 17.27 0.91 120 4.93 23.68 0.86 144 8.04 29.43 0.74 168 12.54 36.71 0.66 192 13.76 39.73 0.65 216 13.51 44.52 0.59 240 14.28 47.84 0.48 264 13.62 49.40 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.17 -4.09 10.85 9.63 0.97 0.97 48 -7.77 -6.77 14.27 13.69 0.97 0.97 72 -7.02 -6.92 19.04 19.26 0.96 0.95 96 0.71 26.85 0.92 120 8.92 38.06 0.88 144 11.37 45.21 0.85 168 16.04 56.37 0.78 192 16.48 66.17 0.75 216 13.82 76.36 0.69 240 13.33 82.40 0.55 264 9.38 85.79 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.39 -1.09 14.04 13.00 0.98 0.98 48 -8.22 -4.61 19.38 17.67 0.98 0.97 72 -8.20 -6.24 28.73 27.64 0.96 0.96 96 1.66 41.03 0.92 120 11.57 58.33 0.87 144 14.30 71.57 0.85 168 20.92 84.34 0.80 192 19.96 99.93 0.77 216 14.58 114.96 0.73 240 10.85 124.47 0.61 264 2.36 129.68 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.17 1.36 1.16 0.90 0.89 48 -0.70 -0.33 1.55 1.33 0.91 0.91 72 -0.65 -0.30 1.68 1.52 0.89 0.89 96 -0.06 1.85 0.86 120 0.32 2.35 0.82 144 0.48 3.07 0.73 168 0.43 3.26 0.74 192 0.45 3.82 0.69 216 0.37 4.10 0.67 240 0.36 4.57 0.58 264 0.12 4.95 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.12 0.80 0.75 0.90 0.91 48 0.11 0.17 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.92 72 0.17 0.17 1.20 1.18 0.90 0.90 96 0.34 1.56 0.87 120 0.50 1.96 0.84 144 0.41 2.28 0.79 168 0.43 2.55 0.74 192 0.24 2.83 0.72 216 0.11 3.10 0.70 240 0.00 3.34 0.63 264 -0.26 3.49 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.43 1.08 1.05 0.91 0.92 48 0.33 0.34 1.32 1.24 0.90 0.91 72 0.20 0.16 1.59 1.56 0.86 0.86 96 0.01 1.97 0.80 120 -0.05 2.32 0.76 144 0.07 2.78 0.66 168 0.21 2.97 0.61 192 0.41 3.15 0.61 216 0.32 3.27 0.57 240 0.27 3.46 0.57 264 0.21 3.64 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.58 3.62 3.52 48 -0.78 -0.67 3.89 3.81 72 -0.79 -0.74 4.40 4.26 96 -0.83 5.00 120 -0.82 5.65 144 -1.02 6.40 168 -1.30 6.85 192 -1.24 7.08 216 -1.20 7.54 240 -1.34 7.96 264 -1.37 8.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.53 3.51 3.55 48 -0.57 -0.64 4.21 4.17 72 -0.61 -0.78 5.18 5.10 96 -1.13 6.38 120 -1.24 7.73 144 -1.14 8.92 168 -1.30 10.29 192 -1.52 10.88 216 -1.56 12.40 240 -1.94 13.19 264 -1.73 13.88 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.45 5.03 4.68 48 -0.54 -0.53 6.25 5.79 72 -0.70 -0.64 8.38 8.03 96 -1.10 10.51 120 -1.39 13.20 144 -1.45 15.48 168 -1.50 17.71 192 -1.97 18.28 216 -2.12 20.36 240 -2.35 21.46 264 -1.97 22.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -2.48 11.58 9.64 0.95 0.94 48 0.22 -1.54 14.64 12.96 0.95 0.94 72 0.40 -0.29 18.60 16.27 0.93 0.92 96 -1.92 21.26 0.88 120 -3.55 25.21 0.84 144 -4.23 28.64 0.81 168 -4.47 32.77 0.77 192 -4.79 37.64 0.74 216 -2.73 40.30 0.72 240 -0.46 39.41 0.70 264 -2.06 39.89 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 107 12 UTC = 107 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.65 -3.24 11.84 11.55 0.94 0.94 48 -1.86 -1.29 15.00 14.75 0.95 0.95 72 -0.32 1.22 20.07 19.53 0.93 0.94 96 1.03 25.29 0.91 120 0.14 30.79 0.88 144 0.21 36.59 0.85 168 1.09 42.80 0.82 192 2.16 49.21 0.78 216 3.94 53.97 0.73 240 4.87 53.59 0.73 264 3.79 54.87 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 117 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.65 -6.16 20.70 19.76 0.95 0.94 48 -7.00 -5.33 24.98 23.66 0.96 0.96 72 -6.16 -3.63 32.63 31.65 0.94 0.94 96 -3.80 41.46 0.91 120 -4.09 50.89 0.88 144 -4.45 60.20 0.85 168 -1.97 69.91 0.83 192 1.37 80.87 0.78 216 3.27 88.93 0.74 240 3.73 92.18 0.74 264 1.73 93.46 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 117 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.27 1.90 1.58 0.84 0.85 48 -0.35 -0.12 2.01 1.78 0.87 0.87 72 -0.23 0.00 2.23 1.99 0.85 0.87 96 0.12 2.32 0.84 120 0.17 2.64 0.82 144 0.26 3.02 0.79 168 0.36 3.37 0.76 192 0.46 3.66 0.73 216 0.46 3.95 0.69 240 0.46 4.06 0.67 264 0.54 4.18 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 0.05 0.97 0.99 0.84 0.84 48 -0.02 0.05 1.14 1.14 0.87 0.87 72 -0.01 0.07 1.39 1.41 0.86 0.85 96 0.09 1.67 0.82 120 0.10 1.92 0.80 144 0.07 2.11 0.78 168 0.10 2.30 0.76 192 0.14 2.52 0.74 216 0.13 2.73 0.70 240 0.04 2.87 0.67 264 0.02 2.87 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 155 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.20 1.23 1.19 0.87 0.87 48 -0.31 -0.29 1.52 1.47 0.88 0.88 72 -0.33 -0.34 1.85 1.84 0.86 0.85 96 -0.31 2.12 0.81 120 -0.27 2.36 0.78 144 -0.26 2.59 0.75 168 -0.12 2.88 0.72 192 0.12 3.20 0.67 216 0.16 3.35 0.63 240 0.06 3.46 0.61 264 0.00 3.50 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.07 -0.88 3.92 3.81 48 -1.15 -0.90 4.55 4.47 72 -1.16 -0.90 5.39 5.14 96 -0.85 6.01 120 -0.80 6.52 144 -0.80 7.01 168 -0.76 7.60 192 -0.72 8.11 216 -0.78 8.42 240 -0.96 8.43 264 -1.04 8.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 132 12 UTC = 130 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.79 3.92 3.98 48 -1.01 -0.98 4.81 4.88 72 -1.05 -1.06 5.95 5.96 96 -0.98 7.06 120 -0.83 7.81 144 -0.80 8.66 168 -0.80 9.69 192 -0.91 10.37 216 -0.93 10.94 240 -0.89 11.05 264 -0.89 11.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.82 5.85 5.96 48 -1.04 -1.08 7.70 7.62 72 -1.26 -1.32 9.69 9.81 96 -1.33 11.95 120 -1.23 13.28 144 -1.09 14.83 168 -1.07 16.31 192 -1.03 18.12 216 -1.18 19.22 240 -1.26 19.68 264 -1.40 19.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 148 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.41 -4.09 6.41 7.47 0.99 0.99 48 -2.77 -3.19 8.65 10.66 0.98 0.97 72 -2.50 -2.04 13.86 15.17 0.95 0.95 96 -3.94 20.11 0.96 120 -4.23 29.81 0.90 144 -4.16 32.68 0.86 168 -1.90 42.69 0.80 192 1.36 52.20 0.66 216 -6.11 57.96 0.59 240 -7.47 63.24 0.51 264 -5.08 64.50 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.51 -10.33 11.65 12.89 0.98 0.99 48 -9.54 -10.48 14.98 17.01 0.98 0.98 72 -10.03 -10.14 20.45 24.65 0.97 0.94 96 -11.33 32.29 0.94 120 -11.92 47.83 0.88 144 -14.16 50.31 0.85 168 -10.65 60.20 0.86 192 -5.55 69.14 0.76 216 -9.75 82.48 0.63 240 -20.07 92.79 0.62 264 -13.16 87.87 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.74 -9.02 11.82 14.24 0.98 0.98 48 -5.39 -8.99 17.63 21.69 0.98 0.96 72 -5.10 -8.80 25.50 31.81 0.97 0.91 96 -8.57 41.23 0.93 120 -7.87 56.05 0.86 144 -13.61 68.86 0.81 168 -11.40 80.90 0.83 192 -4.63 87.67 0.75 216 -1.57 106.36 0.67 240 -13.72 112.43 0.62 264 -9.52 115.57 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.46 1.28 1.15 0.80 0.85 48 -0.40 -0.45 1.36 1.33 0.86 0.87 72 -0.37 -0.43 1.60 1.68 0.85 0.83 96 -0.35 1.95 0.82 120 -0.39 2.29 0.83 144 -0.59 2.79 0.71 168 -0.37 3.02 0.73 192 -0.32 3.21 0.66 216 0.10 3.11 0.65 240 -0.37 3.27 0.62 264 -0.37 3.54 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 -0.03 0.95 0.87 0.90 0.90 48 0.06 -0.09 1.07 1.02 0.91 0.88 72 0.09 -0.10 1.32 1.30 0.89 0.87 96 -0.03 1.59 0.86 120 -0.01 1.98 0.81 144 -0.18 2.27 0.73 168 -0.25 2.73 0.77 192 -0.10 2.72 0.64 216 0.03 3.04 0.61 240 -0.39 3.28 0.54 264 -0.21 3.20 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.47 1.20 1.22 0.90 0.89 48 0.47 0.54 1.53 1.40 0.89 0.88 72 0.53 0.65 1.92 1.88 0.86 0.86 96 0.78 2.23 0.83 120 0.91 2.82 0.74 144 0.95 2.87 0.72 168 0.94 3.28 0.62 192 0.90 3.58 0.61 216 1.05 3.84 0.60 240 1.56 4.28 0.53 264 1.28 4.05 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.24 3.74 3.58 48 -0.16 -0.41 4.10 4.22 72 -0.11 -0.42 4.79 4.81 96 -0.42 5.63 120 -0.61 6.67 144 -1.06 7.46 168 -1.26 8.19 192 -1.43 9.65 216 -0.76 9.52 240 -0.84 10.49 264 -0.69 10.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.52 4.38 4.54 48 -0.84 -0.58 5.18 5.32 72 -0.84 -0.57 6.61 6.85 96 -0.56 8.79 120 -0.70 10.26 144 -0.89 10.55 168 -1.76 11.70 192 -1.69 13.32 216 -0.56 14.67 240 -0.13 16.04 264 -0.13 16.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.28 5.43 5.63 48 -0.71 -0.32 6.54 6.67 72 -0.83 -0.36 8.12 8.28 96 -0.07 10.22 120 0.16 12.33 144 -0.34 12.71 168 -1.46 14.89 192 -1.14 17.88 216 0.41 19.45 240 0.53 22.18 264 0.62 22.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.30 -5.57 9.35 9.91 0.71 0.69 48 -5.01 -4.79 10.06 10.20 0.79 0.80 72 -4.86 -5.10 10.46 10.69 0.81 0.81 96 -5.61 11.39 0.79 120 -6.11 12.13 0.77 144 -6.41 12.96 0.76 168 -6.74 13.51 0.77 192 -7.09 14.25 0.77 216 -7.30 15.17 0.75 240 -7.00 15.34 0.74 264 -7.02 15.59 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 70 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.13 -11.42 14.50 14.71 0.64 0.60 48 -11.45 -11.36 15.04 14.93 0.75 0.74 72 -11.79 -12.19 15.63 15.88 0.79 0.78 96 -13.09 16.89 0.75 120 -13.71 17.72 0.73 144 -14.17 18.61 0.71 168 -14.33 19.01 0.71 192 -14.65 19.71 0.69 216 -14.73 20.31 0.65 240 -14.42 20.56 0.62 264 -14.14 20.50 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.73 -9.09 14.29 14.96 0.62 0.64 48 -8.87 -9.51 15.68 15.94 0.73 0.77 72 -9.94 -11.08 16.95 17.80 0.76 0.78 96 -12.31 19.41 0.77 120 -13.44 20.92 0.74 144 -14.04 22.17 0.72 168 -14.31 23.38 0.69 192 -14.72 24.17 0.67 216 -14.87 24.88 0.66 240 -14.87 25.57 0.63 264 -14.29 25.65 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 71 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.55 1.19 1.15 0.46 0.43 48 -0.50 -0.55 1.24 1.19 0.55 0.54 72 -0.47 -0.52 1.25 1.19 0.59 0.60 96 -0.49 1.22 0.61 120 -0.48 1.26 0.59 144 -0.48 1.28 0.61 168 -0.47 1.31 0.60 192 -0.48 1.38 0.57 216 -0.47 1.40 0.55 240 -0.45 1.43 0.55 264 -0.43 1.44 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.11 0.92 0.90 0.55 0.52 48 0.16 0.09 0.97 0.94 0.62 0.63 72 0.10 0.03 1.00 0.97 0.65 0.65 96 -0.01 1.01 0.64 120 -0.02 1.06 0.62 144 -0.05 1.10 0.60 168 -0.06 1.12 0.59 192 -0.07 1.17 0.57 216 -0.08 1.23 0.56 240 -0.09 1.27 0.56 264 -0.07 1.30 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.13 0.73 0.67 0.56 0.60 48 0.11 0.05 0.77 0.73 0.66 0.67 72 0.07 0.01 0.84 0.80 0.67 0.68 96 0.00 0.85 0.66 120 -0.03 0.89 0.65 144 -0.05 0.93 0.66 168 -0.05 0.96 0.67 192 -0.05 0.98 0.65 216 -0.06 1.02 0.66 240 -0.05 1.03 0.66 264 -0.04 1.04 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.64 3.33 3.42 48 -0.77 -0.84 3.62 3.61 72 -0.82 -0.94 3.87 3.87 96 -0.97 4.09 120 -1.03 4.36 144 -1.08 4.53 168 -1.17 4.79 192 -1.22 5.00 216 -1.21 5.23 240 -1.24 5.34 264 -1.21 5.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.73 3.84 3.82 48 -0.99 -0.84 4.29 4.21 72 -1.12 -0.94 4.75 4.58 96 -0.97 4.92 120 -0.91 5.29 144 -0.84 5.62 168 -0.90 5.83 192 -0.81 6.16 216 -0.72 6.59 240 -0.65 7.03 264 -0.58 7.32 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.99 -1.09 5.11 5.14 48 -1.48 -1.50 6.20 6.34 72 -1.68 -1.69 7.12 7.36 96 -1.73 8.17 120 -1.71 8.96 144 -1.82 9.52 168 -1.89 9.91 192 -1.89 10.40 216 -1.88 10.83 240 -1.94 11.23 264 -2.00 11.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.08 -3.51 10.45 9.84 0.97 0.96 48 -2.48 -3.29 13.06 12.58 0.97 0.97 72 -1.69 -2.26 16.72 16.18 0.95 0.95 96 -1.71 21.40 0.91 120 -1.50 27.43 0.86 144 -0.59 33.19 0.81 168 0.31 39.21 0.75 192 0.45 43.96 0.70 216 1.50 46.41 0.67 240 3.29 47.79 0.64 264 3.79 50.20 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 380 12 UTC = 372 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.43 -4.93 12.23 11.74 0.97 0.97 48 -4.41 -4.21 15.67 15.23 0.97 0.97 72 -2.77 -2.37 21.24 20.90 0.96 0.96 96 -0.59 28.65 0.93 120 0.54 37.37 0.89 144 1.56 46.09 0.84 168 3.12 55.16 0.80 192 4.09 63.62 0.75 216 5.10 69.31 0.71 240 6.14 72.90 0.67 264 5.96 76.54 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 395 12 UTC = 383 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.02 -5.93 18.22 17.45 0.97 0.97 48 -7.31 -6.45 23.72 22.75 0.97 0.97 72 -6.58 -5.81 32.98 32.08 0.96 0.96 96 -4.54 44.44 0.93 120 -3.97 58.18 0.89 144 -3.59 72.29 0.85 168 -1.64 84.62 0.81 192 0.21 98.40 0.76 216 1.31 108.49 0.71 240 1.27 115.50 0.68 264 -0.56 120.54 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 395 12 UTC = 385 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.40 1.60 1.55 0.88 0.87 48 -0.43 -0.36 1.76 1.73 0.90 0.89 72 -0.34 -0.28 2.00 1.94 0.88 0.89 96 -0.17 2.27 0.86 120 -0.06 2.67 0.82 144 0.00 3.14 0.77 168 0.05 3.46 0.75 192 0.11 3.82 0.71 216 0.12 4.08 0.68 240 0.12 4.29 0.64 264 0.09 4.50 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 416 12 UTC = 408 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.10 0.92 0.92 0.89 0.88 48 0.07 0.11 1.10 1.10 0.91 0.91 72 0.08 0.12 1.38 1.38 0.89 0.89 96 0.14 1.69 0.86 120 0.15 2.01 0.82 144 0.11 2.33 0.79 168 0.12 2.59 0.76 192 0.12 2.85 0.72 216 0.12 3.08 0.68 240 0.06 3.24 0.65 264 -0.02 3.36 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 447 12 UTC = 437 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.07 1.17 1.15 0.90 0.90 48 -0.01 -0.01 1.48 1.44 0.90 0.90 72 -0.05 -0.06 1.86 1.83 0.87 0.87 96 -0.07 2.22 0.83 120 -0.10 2.59 0.79 144 -0.13 2.93 0.74 168 -0.05 3.18 0.71 192 0.08 3.42 0.67 216 0.11 3.63 0.63 240 0.08 3.74 0.61 264 0.06 3.86 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 442 12 UTC = 432 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.91 -0.84 3.71 3.65 48 -0.96 -0.89 4.23 4.19 72 -0.99 -0.91 4.98 4.88 96 -0.92 5.62 120 -0.90 6.33 144 -0.93 7.00 168 -0.97 7.56 192 -0.93 8.06 216 -0.94 8.37 240 -1.09 8.51 264 -1.13 8.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.67 3.76 3.79 48 -0.82 -0.78 4.62 4.63 72 -0.82 -0.81 5.80 5.76 96 -0.81 6.99 120 -0.77 8.16 144 -0.72 9.32 168 -0.70 10.38 192 -0.64 11.17 216 -0.66 11.89 240 -0.69 12.26 264 -0.66 12.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 433 12 UTC = 425 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.73 5.45 5.40 48 -0.91 -0.89 7.22 7.05 72 -1.00 -1.02 9.40 9.33 96 -1.13 11.69 120 -1.22 13.85 144 -1.22 15.97 168 -1.11 17.65 192 -1.03 19.10 216 -1.09 20.34 240 -1.08 21.09 264 -1.06 21.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 429 12 UTC = 420 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.35 -1.02 8.89 10.41 0.98 0.97 48 -1.11 -0.50 12.05 14.50 0.97 0.97 72 -0.92 -0.91 17.19 21.39 0.95 0.95 96 -3.93 30.53 0.90 120 -4.03 38.32 0.86 144 -4.62 45.07 0.82 168 -1.40 50.68 0.81 192 0.20 60.16 0.72 216 -2.21 68.12 0.65 240 -2.85 71.31 0.65 264 -1.95 74.38 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.22 -8.18 13.20 14.16 0.98 0.98 48 -8.88 -8.57 18.06 20.37 0.97 0.97 72 -9.67 -10.27 24.69 29.49 0.96 0.95 96 -13.36 40.74 0.91 120 -14.45 53.49 0.88 144 -16.48 61.90 0.84 168 -13.57 72.78 0.82 192 -12.79 81.16 0.76 216 -14.52 93.38 0.69 240 -14.38 99.91 0.68 264 -13.79 101.19 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.76 -10.92 17.14 19.29 0.98 0.98 48 -8.41 -12.16 24.40 28.04 0.97 0.97 72 -8.86 -14.29 34.11 39.78 0.96 0.96 96 -17.29 53.95 0.93 120 -19.32 71.17 0.89 144 -22.11 83.56 0.84 168 -20.32 100.61 0.81 192 -20.12 109.52 0.79 216 -20.25 129.10 0.72 240 -18.29 135.15 0.70 264 -19.78 139.16 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.79 1.86 1.84 0.84 0.89 48 -0.85 -0.79 1.94 1.98 0.88 0.92 72 -0.85 -0.81 2.17 2.26 0.87 0.90 96 -0.79 2.65 0.86 120 -0.87 3.11 0.82 144 -0.95 3.59 0.76 168 -1.02 3.91 0.74 192 -0.95 4.40 0.66 216 -0.93 4.74 0.58 240 -0.91 4.69 0.59 264 -0.83 4.98 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.17 0.97 0.97 0.92 0.93 48 -0.15 -0.26 1.17 1.22 0.92 0.93 72 -0.19 -0.32 1.51 1.60 0.91 0.91 96 -0.37 2.02 0.86 120 -0.44 2.41 0.83 144 -0.53 2.78 0.77 168 -0.55 3.26 0.74 192 -0.56 3.41 0.73 216 -0.50 3.83 0.66 240 -0.45 4.00 0.64 264 -0.49 3.93 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.24 1.25 1.18 0.90 0.90 48 0.34 0.24 1.57 1.42 0.89 0.90 72 0.38 0.26 1.93 1.78 0.88 0.87 96 0.36 2.19 0.83 120 0.40 2.56 0.77 144 0.40 2.80 0.73 168 0.36 3.06 0.69 192 0.21 3.20 0.67 216 0.25 3.47 0.65 240 0.34 3.76 0.58 264 0.21 3.61 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.64 4.48 4.41 48 -0.73 -0.62 4.91 4.94 72 -0.72 -0.62 5.55 5.68 96 -0.61 6.64 120 -0.71 7.76 144 -0.75 8.72 168 -0.95 9.55 192 -1.07 10.59 216 -0.88 10.79 240 -0.71 11.25 264 -1.01 11.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.43 4.66 4.71 48 -0.55 -0.43 5.67 5.76 72 -0.55 -0.45 7.22 7.31 96 -0.46 9.49 120 -0.29 11.16 144 0.03 12.45 168 -0.39 13.34 192 -0.63 14.54 216 -0.28 15.25 240 0.25 16.24 264 -0.04 16.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JULY 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.39 5.93 6.16 48 -0.63 -0.37 7.25 7.56 72 -0.59 -0.40 9.32 9.66 96 -0.41 12.66 120 -0.11 15.09 144 -0.21 16.38 168 -0.82 18.27 192 -1.10 20.67 216 -0.52 22.59 240 -0.08 24.70 264 -0.18 25.31 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 39 ---------------------------------------------------------