VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AUGUST 2015 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.75 0.78 0.99 0.99 19.1 19.1 48 0.01 0.01 1.28 1.33 0.98 0.97 28.7 28.9 72 0.04 0.04 1.86 1.91 0.95 0.94 36.7 37.0 96 0.08 2.63 0.89 45.8 120 0.12 3.41 0.82 54.0 144 0.16 4.20 0.74 61.3 168 0.22 4.87 0.65 66.5 192 0.27 5.41 0.57 71.1 216 0.28 5.90 0.48 74.4 240 0.35 6.49 0.37 77.9 264 0.42 6.73 0.32 80.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 0.04 5.61 5.84 1.00 1.00 12.5 12.5 48 0.11 0.14 10.81 11.26 0.99 0.98 21.2 21.4 72 0.43 0.44 17.31 17.67 0.96 0.96 29.9 30.2 96 0.91 25.78 0.92 39.2 120 1.18 34.73 0.85 47.7 144 1.19 43.62 0.77 55.3 168 1.34 51.51 0.69 61.4 192 1.55 58.80 0.59 66.6 216 1.41 65.60 0.48 70.4 240 1.59 73.03 0.36 74.3 264 1.73 78.34 0.26 77.2 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.18 8.71 9.04 1.00 1.00 11.9 12.0 48 -0.79 -0.67 17.35 17.74 0.98 0.98 20.7 20.8 72 -1.48 -1.51 27.54 27.81 0.96 0.96 29.2 29.5 96 -1.97 40.25 0.91 38.0 120 -2.72 53.74 0.85 46.1 144 -3.54 67.02 0.76 53.2 168 -4.05 78.53 0.68 58.6 192 -3.91 89.72 0.58 63.3 216 -4.07 99.74 0.48 67.3 240 -4.26 109.73 0.38 70.8 264 -4.69 118.73 0.27 73.6 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.05 0.42 0.43 0.99 0.99 48 0.03 0.05 0.73 0.74 0.96 0.96 72 0.01 0.02 1.05 1.06 0.92 0.91 96 -0.02 1.41 0.85 120 -0.05 1.76 0.76 144 -0.10 2.09 0.67 168 -0.14 2.36 0.58 192 -0.15 2.59 0.50 216 -0.16 2.82 0.42 240 -0.18 3.02 0.34 264 -0.20 3.22 0.26 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 0.62 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.09 -0.10 1.04 1.04 0.93 0.93 72 -0.12 -0.13 1.46 1.44 0.87 0.87 96 -0.14 1.85 0.78 120 -0.15 2.23 0.68 144 -0.16 2.58 0.57 168 -0.15 2.84 0.48 192 -0.12 3.06 0.40 216 -0.10 3.25 0.33 240 -0.08 3.36 0.30 264 -0.07 3.52 0.23 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.11 1.86 1.87 48 -0.21 -0.23 3.14 3.19 72 -0.27 -0.28 4.44 4.53 96 -0.31 5.91 120 -0.35 7.28 144 -0.37 8.61 168 -0.38 9.63 192 -0.39 10.51 216 -0.35 11.13 240 -0.33 11.83 264 -0.30 12.37 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.19 3.26 3.30 48 -0.34 -0.37 5.49 5.55 72 -0.44 -0.47 7.69 7.77 96 -0.55 10.11 120 -0.59 12.40 144 -0.58 14.53 168 -0.57 16.14 192 -0.57 17.61 216 -0.53 18.75 240 -0.49 19.79 264 -0.42 20.67 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.46 3.05 3.04 0.98 0.98 24.3 24.0 48 -0.53 -0.59 4.35 4.42 0.96 0.95 32.8 32.2 72 -0.50 -0.56 5.55 5.64 0.93 0.92 38.2 37.6 96 -0.42 6.77 0.88 41.8 120 -0.41 7.80 0.85 45.3 144 -0.41 8.67 0.81 48.0 168 -0.67 9.48 0.77 50.5 192 -1.44 10.30 0.74 52.4 216 -1.78 10.97 0.72 54.1 240 -2.17 11.90 0.68 55.7 264 -2.58 12.59 0.65 57.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.25 1.01 4.73 4.60 0.98 0.98 22.3 22.1 48 0.10 -0.02 6.81 6.94 0.95 0.94 30.5 30.4 72 -0.61 -0.82 8.84 8.90 0.92 0.91 36.1 35.7 96 -1.14 10.54 0.87 39.7 120 -1.41 12.19 0.82 43.3 144 -1.59 13.86 0.78 46.2 168 -1.75 15.45 0.72 48.9 192 -2.19 17.37 0.64 52.0 216 -2.43 19.08 0.56 54.9 240 -2.51 20.53 0.49 56.8 264 -2.62 22.08 0.42 58.4 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 0.41 0.43 0.97 0.97 48 0.00 0.01 0.65 0.66 0.91 0.92 72 0.05 0.05 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.86 96 0.07 0.99 0.82 120 0.09 1.11 0.77 144 0.12 1.23 0.72 168 0.14 1.34 0.67 192 0.14 1.46 0.61 216 0.13 1.56 0.56 240 0.13 1.65 0.51 264 0.14 1.73 0.47 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 0.37 0.36 0.94 0.94 48 0.00 -0.02 0.52 0.51 0.89 0.87 72 0.00 -0.02 0.63 0.61 0.83 0.82 96 -0.02 0.69 0.76 120 -0.02 0.75 0.72 144 -0.02 0.81 0.67 168 -0.02 0.86 0.63 192 -0.01 0.91 0.59 216 -0.01 0.96 0.55 240 0.00 0.99 0.53 264 0.02 1.01 0.51 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.06 1.47 1.46 48 -0.18 -0.19 2.23 2.22 72 -0.22 -0.25 2.78 2.76 96 -0.27 3.21 120 -0.31 3.58 144 -0.34 3.87 168 -0.34 4.17 192 -0.30 4.45 216 -0.24 4.67 240 -0.25 4.85 264 -0.25 5.01 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.36 3.03 3.05 48 -0.49 -0.55 4.48 4.49 72 -0.58 -0.62 5.52 5.54 96 -0.59 6.36 120 -0.55 7.07 144 -0.55 7.64 168 -0.58 8.16 192 -0.57 8.78 216 -0.50 9.40 240 -0.39 9.90 264 -0.34 10.38 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.05 1.03 1.03 1.00 1.00 12.2 11.9 48 0.03 0.05 2.10 2.09 0.98 0.98 21.8 21.7 72 -0.01 0.01 3.39 3.36 0.96 0.96 30.9 30.6 96 -0.06 4.77 0.91 38.8 120 -0.08 6.19 0.85 45.8 144 -0.11 7.64 0.77 51.8 168 -0.16 8.99 0.69 57.5 192 -0.09 10.29 0.59 62.3 216 -0.05 11.13 0.52 65.4 240 -0.04 11.79 0.46 67.5 264 -0.03 12.27 0.41 68.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.16 8.96 8.88 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.5 48 -0.50 -0.53 18.99 18.80 0.99 0.99 17.8 17.7 72 -0.79 -0.84 31.30 30.97 0.97 0.97 25.7 25.6 96 -1.35 45.16 0.93 33.2 120 -1.88 60.52 0.87 40.1 144 -2.32 75.98 0.79 46.1 168 -2.60 90.21 0.71 51.5 192 -2.57 105.35 0.60 56.7 216 -2.69 117.14 0.51 60.3 240 -2.94 124.62 0.44 62.5 264 -3.46 130.89 0.38 64.6 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.44 0.24 11.25 11.16 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.6 48 -0.07 -0.35 23.35 23.19 0.99 0.99 13.7 13.7 72 -0.69 -0.93 37.99 38.03 0.97 0.97 20.1 19.9 96 -1.70 55.69 0.94 26.3 120 -2.18 74.97 0.88 32.3 144 -2.78 96.24 0.80 38.2 168 -3.57 115.11 0.72 43.3 192 -3.97 134.82 0.61 48.5 216 -4.49 151.69 0.51 52.0 240 -4.93 163.95 0.43 54.6 264 -6.13 173.18 0.37 57.1 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.54 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 -0.02 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.97 72 -0.03 -0.03 1.49 1.47 0.93 0.93 96 -0.04 1.98 0.87 120 -0.05 2.53 0.79 144 -0.05 3.03 0.70 168 -0.10 3.48 0.60 192 -0.13 3.93 0.48 216 -0.18 4.27 0.40 240 -0.19 4.54 0.33 264 -0.25 4.76 0.27 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.03 0.61 0.61 0.98 0.98 48 0.06 0.05 1.05 1.05 0.95 0.95 72 0.06 0.04 1.50 1.48 0.90 0.90 96 0.05 1.89 0.83 120 0.10 2.29 0.76 144 0.10 2.61 0.68 168 0.10 2.96 0.59 192 0.10 3.30 0.49 216 0.13 3.53 0.43 240 0.15 3.70 0.39 264 0.17 3.87 0.34 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.03 2.49 2.46 48 -0.05 -0.04 4.68 4.65 72 -0.05 -0.05 6.78 6.77 96 -0.07 8.79 120 -0.13 10.83 144 -0.12 12.67 168 -0.07 14.38 192 -0.08 16.01 216 -0.11 17.19 240 -0.17 18.04 264 -0.18 18.79 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.07 3.28 3.26 48 -0.18 -0.20 5.77 5.75 72 -0.28 -0.30 8.30 8.26 96 -0.39 10.94 120 -0.45 13.68 144 -0.51 16.38 168 -0.55 18.80 192 -0.64 21.35 216 -0.65 23.32 240 -0.64 24.80 264 -0.68 26.34 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.58 -2.76 7.61 7.73 0.97 0.97 48 -3.03 -2.05 9.79 9.68 0.97 0.97 72 -1.08 -0.91 12.74 12.72 0.96 0.95 96 -1.17 17.58 0.92 120 -2.60 23.70 0.88 144 -2.45 28.66 0.83 168 -0.64 31.73 0.79 192 0.27 34.13 0.74 216 2.28 39.91 0.64 240 2.66 45.67 0.53 264 4.24 46.70 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.47 -6.28 10.72 10.17 0.97 0.97 48 -5.20 -4.71 13.39 12.63 0.97 0.98 72 -2.52 -2.85 18.08 18.11 0.96 0.96 96 -2.59 25.22 0.93 120 -3.71 34.33 0.90 144 -3.56 41.69 0.86 168 -1.21 48.27 0.82 192 0.58 51.91 0.78 216 1.74 58.29 0.71 240 0.75 68.75 0.57 264 1.76 71.33 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.00 -6.90 13.87 14.12 0.98 0.98 48 -6.52 -7.62 20.82 20.43 0.98 0.98 72 -6.26 -8.28 29.68 29.97 0.96 0.96 96 -10.13 42.86 0.93 120 -13.75 57.90 0.90 144 -15.87 69.98 0.86 168 -13.90 81.11 0.82 192 -11.22 87.92 0.79 216 -11.36 93.91 0.73 240 -14.38 111.23 0.59 264 -13.17 117.59 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.60 1.24 1.73 0.87 0.86 48 -0.10 -0.48 1.54 1.88 0.90 0.90 72 0.10 -0.33 1.88 2.13 0.88 0.88 96 -0.23 2.45 0.85 120 -0.16 2.94 0.79 144 -0.10 3.52 0.71 168 -0.03 3.92 0.67 192 -0.08 4.13 0.64 216 -0.07 4.26 0.58 240 -0.06 4.64 0.48 264 -0.12 4.86 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.13 0.78 0.80 0.89 0.87 48 0.14 0.14 0.95 0.97 0.91 0.90 72 0.07 0.07 1.18 1.22 0.89 0.88 96 -0.01 1.47 0.85 120 -0.09 1.78 0.81 144 -0.18 2.06 0.76 168 -0.16 2.33 0.74 192 -0.16 2.51 0.70 216 -0.28 2.57 0.66 240 -0.39 2.98 0.56 264 -0.38 3.06 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.09 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.88 48 0.09 -0.01 1.10 1.11 0.89 0.88 72 0.03 -0.08 1.36 1.35 0.85 0.86 96 -0.15 1.64 0.82 120 -0.23 1.93 0.78 144 -0.32 2.20 0.73 168 -0.31 2.37 0.71 192 -0.18 2.53 0.67 216 -0.22 2.60 0.65 240 -0.25 2.74 0.57 264 -0.23 2.88 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -1.02 3.48 3.76 48 -0.90 -1.05 3.93 4.20 72 -0.97 -1.10 4.42 4.69 96 -1.15 5.47 120 -1.10 6.43 144 -1.11 7.32 168 -0.94 7.66 192 -0.83 8.16 216 -1.01 8.51 240 -0.86 9.19 264 -0.88 9.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.41 3.59 3.68 48 -0.54 -0.36 4.22 4.39 72 -0.44 -0.20 5.16 5.51 96 -0.07 6.62 120 -0.03 7.98 144 0.07 9.31 168 0.33 10.16 192 0.40 11.05 216 0.50 11.79 240 0.37 12.67 264 0.08 12.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.65 5.62 5.51 48 -0.51 -0.68 7.16 7.34 72 -0.31 -0.47 9.17 9.35 96 -0.32 11.66 120 -0.15 14.23 144 0.08 16.79 168 0.10 18.29 192 0.06 19.86 216 0.04 20.86 240 -0.28 22.38 264 -0.49 22.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.06 -4.24 8.43 8.51 0.96 0.96 48 -5.87 -7.14 10.47 11.60 0.97 0.97 72 -6.54 -8.32 13.30 14.37 0.96 0.95 96 -6.73 16.90 0.93 120 -6.17 20.78 0.88 144 -6.27 27.79 0.83 168 -4.73 35.17 0.73 192 -3.61 41.38 0.64 216 -6.57 44.53 0.61 240 -9.27 47.39 0.60 264 -9.60 52.68 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.66 -6.35 11.80 10.87 0.97 0.96 48 -10.06 -10.03 15.25 15.57 0.97 0.97 72 -11.42 -11.26 19.89 20.15 0.96 0.95 96 -10.21 25.79 0.93 120 -9.78 33.14 0.89 144 -10.19 42.19 0.84 168 -9.85 51.61 0.76 192 -10.75 61.82 0.71 216 -13.79 67.06 0.72 240 -17.86 74.93 0.65 264 -19.21 82.81 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.18 -5.32 15.54 14.67 0.98 0.97 48 -11.71 -10.04 22.08 21.43 0.98 0.97 72 -14.42 -12.58 30.67 30.37 0.96 0.95 96 -13.09 40.51 0.92 120 -13.51 55.53 0.88 144 -15.02 67.96 0.83 168 -16.54 82.37 0.75 192 -21.00 95.45 0.72 216 -22.49 103.51 0.72 240 -27.14 116.12 0.66 264 -28.26 127.74 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.08 1.25 1.10 0.89 0.89 48 -0.59 -0.20 1.42 1.27 0.92 0.92 72 -0.58 -0.17 1.61 1.53 0.90 0.90 96 -0.11 1.78 0.88 120 0.00 2.22 0.83 144 0.16 2.58 0.79 168 0.08 3.10 0.73 192 -0.05 3.59 0.69 216 0.03 3.99 0.66 240 -0.10 4.13 0.62 264 -0.26 4.44 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.05 0.74 0.73 0.89 0.89 48 0.00 0.03 0.90 0.88 0.91 0.91 72 -0.06 -0.01 1.09 1.11 0.90 0.89 96 -0.08 1.32 0.86 120 -0.15 1.72 0.82 144 -0.25 2.01 0.78 168 -0.36 2.36 0.70 192 -0.51 2.62 0.70 216 -0.52 2.78 0.67 240 -0.62 2.99 0.64 264 -0.60 3.19 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.27 0.94 0.92 0.86 0.85 48 0.19 0.27 1.15 1.13 0.84 0.84 72 0.15 0.22 1.35 1.37 0.79 0.79 96 0.22 1.60 0.73 120 0.16 1.86 0.69 144 0.26 2.14 0.62 168 0.29 2.23 0.60 192 0.19 2.35 0.62 216 0.25 2.68 0.56 240 0.29 2.96 0.51 264 0.31 2.93 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.75 3.57 3.49 48 -0.95 -0.87 3.86 3.76 72 -0.95 -0.78 4.25 4.18 96 -0.81 4.70 120 -0.88 5.28 144 -0.99 6.07 168 -1.16 6.83 192 -1.05 7.57 216 -0.93 7.62 240 -0.95 8.33 264 -0.92 8.77 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.48 3.54 3.49 48 -0.55 -0.59 4.19 4.13 72 -0.68 -0.65 5.06 5.14 96 -0.68 6.12 120 -0.66 7.49 144 -0.71 8.74 168 -0.54 10.23 192 -0.68 11.37 216 -0.56 11.82 240 -0.76 12.71 264 -0.67 13.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.84 5.37 4.95 48 -0.76 -0.83 6.96 6.41 72 -0.93 -0.85 8.91 8.57 96 -1.14 10.66 120 -0.89 13.61 144 -0.48 15.70 168 -0.19 17.95 192 -0.34 19.71 216 -0.49 20.78 240 -0.70 21.88 264 -0.43 23.18 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -1.87 11.09 9.32 0.95 0.95 48 0.44 -0.45 13.34 11.41 0.96 0.95 72 0.82 0.50 16.49 14.65 0.94 0.94 96 0.18 18.38 0.91 120 1.03 21.81 0.87 144 2.23 26.94 0.81 168 1.90 30.29 0.77 192 1.32 33.89 0.67 216 1.97 36.64 0.62 240 5.20 37.44 0.60 264 6.81 40.07 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 109 12 UTC = 109 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.97 -3.66 11.74 11.22 0.95 0.94 48 -2.77 -1.89 13.70 13.52 0.96 0.95 72 -1.54 0.36 17.39 17.49 0.95 0.94 96 1.33 22.18 0.92 120 2.16 27.05 0.88 144 2.66 33.50 0.83 168 2.10 37.81 0.79 192 2.13 43.18 0.71 216 3.54 47.02 0.66 240 6.58 49.87 0.63 264 7.30 53.81 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.26 -6.31 20.09 18.60 0.94 0.94 48 -7.43 -5.77 24.04 23.22 0.95 0.95 72 -7.09 -4.31 29.26 29.59 0.95 0.93 96 -5.10 37.16 0.92 120 -6.56 44.64 0.88 144 -8.94 52.96 0.85 168 -10.32 59.58 0.82 192 -10.12 69.30 0.78 216 -7.13 77.63 0.72 240 -3.69 85.01 0.67 264 -4.96 90.76 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 118 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.47 1.85 1.54 0.85 0.86 48 -0.52 -0.40 1.98 1.70 0.88 0.88 72 -0.44 -0.29 2.11 1.91 0.88 0.88 96 -0.16 2.14 0.86 120 -0.09 2.40 0.82 144 -0.09 2.69 0.78 168 -0.10 2.98 0.74 192 -0.09 3.27 0.68 216 -0.02 3.46 0.65 240 0.00 3.62 0.61 264 -0.01 3.83 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 0.02 0.95 0.91 0.85 0.85 48 -0.09 0.00 1.09 1.05 0.87 0.88 72 -0.09 0.02 1.28 1.27 0.87 0.86 96 0.03 1.49 0.84 120 -0.06 1.64 0.83 144 -0.20 1.89 0.81 168 -0.27 2.04 0.79 192 -0.31 2.30 0.75 216 -0.29 2.55 0.70 240 -0.30 2.74 0.64 264 -0.38 2.94 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 155 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.13 1.21 1.16 0.86 0.86 48 -0.25 -0.23 1.47 1.43 0.88 0.87 72 -0.32 -0.28 1.71 1.67 0.87 0.87 96 -0.37 1.97 0.84 120 -0.42 2.22 0.81 144 -0.50 2.46 0.77 168 -0.52 2.59 0.75 192 -0.41 2.84 0.70 216 -0.34 3.07 0.67 240 -0.17 3.20 0.65 264 -0.20 3.38 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -0.83 3.67 3.57 48 -0.97 -0.87 4.16 4.00 72 -1.09 -0.97 4.73 4.60 96 -0.99 5.18 120 -1.01 5.83 144 -1.07 6.48 168 -0.94 7.00 192 -0.89 7.56 216 -0.92 7.96 240 -1.00 8.09 264 -0.87 8.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 132 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.74 3.74 3.80 48 -1.04 -0.88 4.47 4.51 72 -1.15 -0.95 5.37 5.49 96 -1.06 6.41 120 -1.20 7.26 144 -1.23 8.04 168 -1.14 8.76 192 -1.06 9.65 216 -0.94 10.10 240 -0.83 10.47 264 -0.73 10.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 154 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.58 5.43 5.61 48 -0.74 -0.77 6.97 7.25 72 -0.85 -0.93 8.36 8.82 96 -1.10 10.48 120 -1.16 11.92 144 -1.01 13.34 168 -0.90 14.30 192 -0.80 16.14 216 -0.55 17.46 240 -0.32 18.39 264 -0.20 19.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.98 -3.56 5.89 6.38 0.98 0.98 48 -3.59 -3.31 7.91 9.64 0.98 0.98 72 -3.28 -3.09 10.68 12.66 0.97 0.97 96 -2.34 18.65 0.95 120 -3.91 27.15 0.93 144 -7.85 35.53 0.88 168 -8.50 41.11 0.78 192 -7.67 49.04 0.69 216 -4.69 51.75 0.69 240 -11.12 58.97 0.59 264 -14.00 58.79 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.07 -9.20 11.06 13.08 0.98 0.97 48 -9.39 -9.96 13.91 17.22 0.98 0.97 72 -9.02 -9.68 16.73 21.44 0.98 0.96 96 -8.49 27.16 0.96 120 -7.79 39.92 0.92 144 -10.51 48.66 0.91 168 -12.49 56.56 0.75 192 -11.27 67.32 0.75 216 -7.13 78.91 0.68 240 -12.06 86.15 0.57 264 -14.24 89.83 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.78 -9.07 11.44 13.26 0.98 0.97 48 -7.03 -11.06 16.02 19.15 0.98 0.98 72 -8.62 -11.69 20.75 24.19 0.98 0.97 96 -11.32 32.90 0.96 120 -7.59 44.50 0.92 144 -8.22 59.81 0.91 168 -6.94 69.18 0.74 192 -8.81 84.21 0.73 216 0.30 102.00 0.65 240 -2.01 113.99 0.54 264 -9.49 123.53 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.58 1.18 1.29 0.85 0.82 48 -0.40 -0.49 1.27 1.34 0.89 0.87 72 -0.31 -0.42 1.36 1.41 0.92 0.88 96 -0.42 1.61 0.87 120 -0.34 1.99 0.82 144 -0.20 2.14 0.81 168 -0.32 2.42 0.74 192 -0.34 2.88 0.63 216 -0.12 3.06 0.57 240 -0.01 3.68 0.43 264 -0.08 3.85 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.02 1.02 0.96 0.89 0.89 48 0.03 -0.07 1.14 1.18 0.90 0.88 72 0.01 -0.15 1.27 1.37 0.91 0.90 96 -0.12 1.57 0.89 120 0.06 1.88 0.82 144 0.14 2.14 0.79 168 0.08 2.42 0.67 192 0.13 2.70 0.65 216 0.27 3.18 0.54 240 0.35 3.33 0.52 264 0.40 3.53 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.33 1.15 1.13 0.89 0.91 48 0.27 0.36 1.36 1.40 0.89 0.89 72 0.21 0.35 1.54 1.60 0.89 0.86 96 0.40 1.86 0.86 120 0.41 2.35 0.74 144 0.52 2.50 0.80 168 0.58 2.78 0.69 192 0.74 3.31 0.66 216 0.86 3.38 0.59 240 0.85 3.49 0.56 264 0.72 3.45 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.15 3.67 3.36 48 -0.35 -0.08 4.02 3.75 72 -0.39 0.01 4.46 4.25 96 0.13 5.06 120 0.17 6.13 144 0.27 6.72 168 0.29 7.79 192 0.04 8.49 216 0.27 9.16 240 0.53 9.59 264 0.56 10.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.84 4.33 4.17 48 -0.55 -0.75 4.88 4.87 72 -0.48 -0.79 5.48 5.52 96 -0.95 6.87 120 -0.95 8.10 144 -0.72 9.33 168 -0.96 10.49 192 -1.15 11.95 216 -0.81 13.48 240 -0.55 13.78 264 -0.44 14.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.13 5.10 4.73 48 -0.56 -0.05 6.22 5.77 72 -0.65 -0.15 6.96 6.45 96 -0.04 8.34 120 0.06 10.10 144 0.10 11.37 168 -0.22 13.43 192 -0.44 15.39 216 -0.09 17.94 240 0.22 18.54 264 -0.73 19.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.84 -5.22 9.07 9.56 0.73 0.74 48 -4.90 -5.09 9.38 9.82 0.82 0.82 72 -5.10 -5.69 9.85 10.43 0.85 0.84 96 -5.83 10.82 0.84 120 -5.81 11.25 0.83 144 -5.51 11.78 0.82 168 -5.85 12.66 0.79 192 -6.47 13.76 0.77 216 -6.42 14.35 0.76 240 -6.57 15.19 0.71 264 -7.22 15.71 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 74 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.78 -10.13 14.36 13.54 0.62 0.62 48 -11.08 -10.19 14.75 13.86 0.75 0.73 72 -11.32 -10.91 15.21 14.75 0.78 0.78 96 -11.45 15.47 0.77 120 -11.63 15.91 0.76 144 -11.53 16.30 0.76 168 -11.88 17.08 0.73 192 -12.58 17.84 0.72 216 -12.62 18.17 0.70 240 -12.59 18.72 0.68 264 -13.19 19.42 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.23 -7.57 14.94 14.67 0.59 0.60 48 -8.93 -7.71 16.14 15.45 0.73 0.72 72 -9.15 -8.29 17.14 16.59 0.73 0.74 96 -8.68 17.62 0.69 120 -8.63 18.23 0.68 144 -8.72 19.06 0.69 168 -9.31 20.16 0.67 192 -10.13 21.27 0.64 216 -10.21 22.15 0.60 240 -10.11 22.70 0.60 264 -10.58 23.59 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.48 1.17 1.16 0.44 0.46 48 -0.50 -0.43 1.18 1.17 0.56 0.58 72 -0.43 -0.37 1.17 1.18 0.59 0.61 96 -0.34 1.21 0.62 120 -0.33 1.25 0.65 144 -0.33 1.30 0.63 168 -0.31 1.35 0.60 192 -0.29 1.40 0.58 216 -0.30 1.46 0.56 240 -0.34 1.52 0.54 264 -0.33 1.56 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.13 0.90 0.85 0.55 0.55 48 0.15 0.14 0.93 0.89 0.65 0.61 72 0.12 0.12 0.97 0.92 0.67 0.63 96 0.11 0.94 0.63 120 0.10 0.99 0.63 144 0.08 1.06 0.61 168 0.07 1.11 0.58 192 0.06 1.12 0.58 216 0.07 1.15 0.55 240 0.10 1.19 0.52 264 0.09 1.23 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.15 0.70 0.65 0.54 0.61 48 0.15 0.10 0.75 0.73 0.61 0.65 72 0.18 0.13 0.83 0.80 0.62 0.66 96 0.15 0.86 0.65 120 0.17 0.90 0.64 144 0.17 0.94 0.63 168 0.16 0.98 0.62 192 0.15 1.02 0.60 216 0.14 1.03 0.59 240 0.13 1.02 0.59 264 0.14 1.06 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.55 3.30 3.33 48 -0.75 -0.76 3.52 3.59 72 -0.78 -0.82 3.77 3.82 96 -0.79 4.02 120 -0.80 4.30 144 -0.90 4.57 168 -0.99 4.90 192 -1.04 5.17 216 -1.00 5.39 240 -0.94 5.54 264 -0.89 5.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.74 3.90 3.85 48 -0.89 -0.83 4.23 4.20 72 -1.02 -0.95 4.57 4.46 96 -1.11 4.79 120 -1.10 5.19 144 -1.08 5.55 168 -1.14 5.95 192 -1.18 6.25 216 -1.03 6.52 240 -0.94 7.01 264 -1.03 7.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.84 4.82 4.86 48 -1.03 -0.99 5.93 5.87 72 -1.11 -0.90 6.81 6.79 96 -0.83 7.55 120 -0.79 8.11 144 -0.82 8.41 168 -0.81 8.79 192 -0.71 9.15 216 -0.68 9.51 240 -0.59 10.04 264 -0.60 10.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.10 -3.83 10.09 9.80 0.97 0.97 48 -3.03 -4.07 12.42 12.45 0.97 0.97 72 -2.50 -3.46 15.63 15.71 0.96 0.96 96 -2.84 20.17 0.94 120 -2.68 25.87 0.90 144 -2.44 31.65 0.85 168 -1.92 36.10 0.81 192 -1.35 40.47 0.75 216 -1.55 45.18 0.67 240 -0.89 49.60 0.59 264 -0.02 52.06 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 383 12 UTC = 375 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.08 -5.81 12.38 11.95 0.97 0.97 48 -5.79 -5.91 15.33 15.40 0.97 0.97 72 -5.08 -4.88 20.15 20.45 0.97 0.96 96 -3.90 27.41 0.94 120 -3.85 35.94 0.90 144 -4.00 44.23 0.87 168 -3.83 51.50 0.82 192 -3.39 57.88 0.77 216 -3.80 64.65 0.71 240 -3.30 72.60 0.62 264 -2.43 78.01 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.58 -7.24 18.30 17.70 0.97 0.97 48 -8.67 -8.93 23.93 23.80 0.97 0.97 72 -9.48 -9.49 31.86 32.55 0.96 0.96 96 -9.97 43.91 0.94 120 -11.67 57.65 0.90 144 -13.58 70.33 0.86 168 -14.34 81.74 0.82 192 -14.70 91.24 0.78 216 -14.84 101.07 0.72 240 -15.01 113.09 0.65 264 -14.08 121.77 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 396 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.44 1.54 1.50 0.87 0.87 48 -0.46 -0.42 1.72 1.66 0.90 0.90 72 -0.38 -0.35 1.92 1.91 0.89 0.89 96 -0.26 2.20 0.87 120 -0.20 2.59 0.83 144 -0.17 2.98 0.78 168 -0.17 3.37 0.74 192 -0.21 3.72 0.69 216 -0.18 3.97 0.64 240 -0.18 4.21 0.59 264 -0.15 4.49 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 419 12 UTC = 412 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.05 0.88 0.86 0.89 0.89 48 0.00 0.04 1.06 1.04 0.91 0.91 72 -0.04 0.01 1.29 1.29 0.90 0.90 96 -0.02 1.58 0.87 120 -0.09 1.88 0.84 144 -0.19 2.21 0.79 168 -0.24 2.46 0.76 192 -0.30 2.68 0.72 216 -0.32 2.90 0.67 240 -0.35 3.16 0.61 264 -0.35 3.35 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 448 12 UTC = 440 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.05 1.15 1.12 0.88 0.88 48 -0.01 -0.03 1.40 1.39 0.88 0.89 72 -0.06 -0.09 1.69 1.68 0.87 0.87 96 -0.14 2.01 0.83 120 -0.20 2.32 0.79 144 -0.23 2.61 0.74 168 -0.22 2.80 0.71 192 -0.17 2.99 0.67 216 -0.14 3.23 0.63 240 -0.09 3.37 0.60 264 -0.09 3.53 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 443 12 UTC = 436 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.81 3.57 3.54 48 -0.94 -0.87 4.00 3.95 72 -1.03 -0.94 4.52 4.50 96 -0.98 5.19 120 -0.98 5.97 144 -1.05 6.77 168 -0.99 7.29 192 -0.93 7.88 216 -0.94 8.27 240 -0.90 8.74 264 -0.87 8.98 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 405 12 UTC = 396 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.57 3.65 3.69 48 -0.77 -0.66 4.37 4.43 72 -0.83 -0.69 5.34 5.50 96 -0.74 6.60 120 -0.77 7.83 144 -0.81 9.01 168 -0.71 9.98 192 -0.70 10.97 216 -0.61 11.59 240 -0.60 12.29 264 -0.63 12.89 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 437 12 UTC = 429 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.66 5.32 5.30 48 -0.75 -0.78 6.91 7.01 72 -0.85 -0.86 8.77 8.96 96 -0.99 11.14 120 -0.95 13.36 144 -0.80 15.46 168 -0.81 16.94 192 -0.82 18.63 216 -0.77 19.96 240 -0.81 21.12 264 -0.78 21.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 434 12 UTC = 425 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.11 -1.32 8.65 10.63 0.98 0.98 48 -1.28 -1.33 11.91 14.78 0.98 0.97 72 -0.93 -2.11 15.96 20.11 0.96 0.95 96 -1.80 27.57 0.92 120 -1.91 35.71 0.87 144 -2.25 43.77 0.84 168 -3.32 49.27 0.79 192 -3.37 55.89 0.71 216 -2.01 60.12 0.70 240 -1.84 63.46 0.68 264 -2.89 62.64 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.06 -8.16 13.36 14.72 0.98 0.98 48 -8.55 -8.42 17.58 20.79 0.98 0.97 72 -8.20 -8.94 23.85 28.36 0.96 0.95 96 -8.47 38.84 0.92 120 -8.31 48.59 0.89 144 -8.41 59.74 0.84 168 -10.98 69.77 0.80 192 -11.69 79.40 0.71 216 -10.87 86.79 0.70 240 -9.25 92.23 0.68 264 -11.66 94.93 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.34 -10.48 16.51 18.93 0.98 0.98 48 -9.60 -11.95 22.60 27.33 0.98 0.98 72 -10.41 -12.89 31.53 36.42 0.97 0.97 96 -12.13 49.63 0.94 120 -10.80 61.69 0.91 144 -12.82 81.00 0.85 168 -15.18 94.17 0.81 192 -18.60 108.96 0.74 216 -18.27 119.30 0.71 240 -16.67 130.95 0.67 264 -20.51 138.38 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.94 1.79 1.92 0.87 0.88 48 -0.81 -0.86 1.88 2.01 0.90 0.90 72 -0.71 -0.72 2.06 2.26 0.90 0.89 96 -0.68 2.64 0.84 120 -0.64 3.00 0.81 144 -0.64 3.32 0.79 168 -0.76 3.93 0.73 192 -0.96 4.51 0.64 216 -1.03 4.79 0.62 240 -0.92 5.09 0.60 264 -0.95 5.28 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.15 0.98 0.95 0.92 0.94 48 -0.11 -0.18 1.19 1.21 0.92 0.94 72 -0.14 -0.16 1.40 1.49 0.92 0.92 96 -0.11 1.86 0.89 120 -0.12 2.18 0.85 144 -0.22 2.72 0.77 168 -0.29 3.02 0.74 192 -0.42 3.44 0.70 216 -0.43 3.65 0.66 240 -0.44 3.89 0.64 264 -0.53 4.10 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.23 1.16 1.18 0.90 0.91 48 0.18 0.14 1.38 1.42 0.92 0.91 72 0.10 0.09 1.63 1.71 0.91 0.90 96 0.12 2.04 0.85 120 0.19 2.29 0.82 144 0.19 2.55 0.79 168 0.18 2.87 0.75 192 0.18 3.28 0.67 216 0.13 3.33 0.65 240 0.10 3.51 0.61 264 0.14 3.62 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.67 4.42 4.53 48 -0.51 -0.52 4.88 5.07 72 -0.55 -0.44 5.45 5.81 96 -0.32 6.63 120 -0.40 7.67 144 -0.46 8.24 168 -0.34 9.28 192 -0.14 10.04 216 -0.17 10.61 240 -0.17 10.97 264 0.02 11.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.49 4.48 4.63 48 -0.39 -0.50 5.41 5.69 72 -0.34 -0.50 6.50 7.10 96 -0.49 8.63 120 -0.69 10.01 144 -0.63 11.15 168 -0.31 13.12 192 -0.11 14.16 216 -0.12 15.39 240 -0.29 15.63 264 -0.14 16.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND AUGUST 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.25 5.63 5.54 48 -0.74 -0.40 6.89 7.14 72 -0.80 -0.54 8.44 8.81 96 -0.51 10.95 120 -0.80 13.20 144 -0.78 14.99 168 -0.77 17.68 192 -0.73 19.70 216 -0.17 22.39 240 -0.79 22.85 264 -1.08 25.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------