VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY SEPTEMBER 2015 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.04 0.76 0.77 0.99 0.99 18.0 17.9 48 0.10 0.08 1.35 1.38 0.98 0.98 28.0 27.9 72 0.17 0.13 2.07 2.09 0.95 0.95 37.3 37.4 96 0.21 2.92 0.90 46.5 120 0.26 3.84 0.83 55.2 144 0.30 4.76 0.73 62.3 168 0.36 5.67 0.62 68.8 192 0.43 6.55 0.50 74.0 216 0.46 7.14 0.42 77.4 240 0.52 7.61 0.34 80.0 264 0.62 8.10 0.27 81.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.12 5.83 5.93 1.00 1.00 11.4 11.3 48 0.31 0.09 11.80 11.81 0.99 0.99 20.2 20.0 72 0.46 0.24 19.70 19.66 0.97 0.97 29.2 29.1 96 0.56 29.29 0.93 38.1 120 0.61 39.83 0.87 46.6 144 0.70 50.23 0.79 53.6 168 1.02 60.57 0.70 60.0 192 1.40 72.09 0.57 66.3 216 1.66 81.97 0.45 71.4 240 1.97 88.51 0.35 74.5 264 2.92 94.04 0.28 76.9 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.04 8.68 8.82 1.00 1.00 10.0 10.0 48 -1.20 -1.33 17.84 17.83 0.99 0.99 17.9 17.7 72 -2.56 -2.66 29.82 29.35 0.97 0.97 26.3 26.0 96 -3.64 44.35 0.93 34.9 120 -4.63 60.70 0.87 43.0 144 -5.45 76.30 0.80 49.6 168 -5.30 92.92 0.70 56.0 192 -4.51 110.05 0.57 61.7 216 -3.98 125.07 0.45 66.4 240 -3.63 135.49 0.36 69.8 264 -1.92 143.55 0.29 72.0 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.43 0.44 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 -0.01 0.78 0.78 0.97 0.97 72 -0.05 -0.05 1.18 1.17 0.94 0.94 96 -0.10 1.61 0.88 120 -0.13 2.07 0.80 144 -0.17 2.47 0.72 168 -0.18 2.85 0.62 192 -0.18 3.21 0.53 216 -0.17 3.57 0.41 240 -0.17 3.86 0.32 264 -0.15 4.04 0.26 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.04 0.61 0.60 0.98 0.98 48 -0.15 -0.14 1.06 1.04 0.94 0.94 72 -0.22 -0.20 1.52 1.53 0.87 0.86 96 -0.25 1.99 0.77 120 -0.28 2.43 0.65 144 -0.29 2.77 0.55 168 -0.25 3.07 0.46 192 -0.20 3.34 0.37 216 -0.17 3.55 0.29 240 -0.13 3.73 0.23 264 -0.07 3.78 0.21 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.11 1.93 1.93 48 -0.24 -0.23 3.38 3.36 72 -0.33 -0.34 4.89 4.87 96 -0.41 6.44 120 -0.46 8.02 144 -0.48 9.34 168 -0.47 10.60 192 -0.41 11.88 216 -0.33 12.97 240 -0.31 13.65 264 -0.21 14.25 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.20 3.24 3.24 48 -0.40 -0.39 5.53 5.49 72 -0.52 -0.50 7.97 7.86 96 -0.58 10.55 120 -0.63 13.24 144 -0.62 15.55 168 -0.62 17.72 192 -0.56 19.69 216 -0.53 21.38 240 -0.48 22.58 264 -0.43 23.51 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.34 2.97 3.04 0.98 0.98 27.0 26.4 48 -0.46 -0.47 4.15 4.26 0.96 0.96 35.9 34.8 72 -0.65 -0.52 5.27 5.35 0.94 0.94 41.4 40.2 96 -0.62 6.44 0.91 44.5 120 -0.73 7.46 0.87 48.2 144 -0.90 8.49 0.84 51.5 168 -0.97 9.56 0.80 54.6 192 -0.93 10.40 0.76 57.0 216 -0.95 11.25 0.72 58.8 240 -1.16 11.83 0.69 60.9 264 -1.06 12.36 0.66 62.6 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.50 1.22 4.62 4.33 0.98 0.98 22.5 22.4 48 -0.08 -0.30 6.35 6.50 0.96 0.95 30.8 30.7 72 -1.57 -1.61 8.35 8.38 0.93 0.92 36.4 36.4 96 -2.19 10.22 0.88 41.0 120 -2.59 12.10 0.83 45.2 144 -2.74 14.31 0.76 49.3 168 -2.69 15.96 0.70 52.6 192 -2.17 17.67 0.63 55.4 216 -1.36 19.42 0.55 58.3 240 -0.65 21.03 0.49 60.4 264 0.37 22.39 0.41 62.9 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.41 0.42 0.97 0.96 48 0.03 0.04 0.67 0.67 0.91 0.90 72 0.09 0.09 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 96 0.13 1.01 0.79 120 0.15 1.14 0.73 144 0.19 1.24 0.69 168 0.24 1.35 0.64 192 0.25 1.45 0.59 216 0.22 1.49 0.57 240 0.21 1.57 0.53 264 0.22 1.67 0.49 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.00 0.35 0.34 0.94 0.94 48 -0.03 -0.05 0.49 0.48 0.88 0.88 72 -0.05 -0.06 0.59 0.58 0.83 0.81 96 -0.06 0.64 0.76 120 -0.06 0.69 0.72 144 -0.05 0.74 0.68 168 -0.04 0.79 0.63 192 -0.01 0.84 0.59 216 0.03 0.91 0.53 240 0.07 0.96 0.48 264 0.09 0.99 0.44 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 1.46 1.46 48 -0.24 -0.23 2.24 2.21 72 -0.31 -0.30 2.73 2.72 96 -0.33 3.13 120 -0.31 3.52 144 -0.27 3.87 168 -0.24 4.19 192 -0.18 4.49 216 -0.15 4.71 240 -0.13 4.93 264 -0.11 5.16 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -0.39 2.92 2.91 48 -0.59 -0.65 4.33 4.33 72 -0.76 -0.78 5.34 5.43 96 -0.82 6.25 120 -0.82 7.02 144 -0.88 7.70 168 -0.90 8.30 192 -0.89 8.92 216 -0.81 9.51 240 -0.77 10.06 264 -0.78 10.52 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.00 12.3 12.2 48 -0.03 0.00 2.08 2.07 0.98 0.98 22.3 22.0 72 -0.06 -0.05 3.30 3.27 0.95 0.95 31.5 31.1 96 -0.13 4.78 0.90 40.2 120 -0.17 6.35 0.83 48.0 144 -0.17 7.58 0.75 53.6 168 -0.17 8.70 0.67 58.0 192 -0.20 9.88 0.58 62.2 216 -0.26 10.99 0.48 65.9 240 -0.28 11.62 0.42 67.2 264 -0.37 12.62 0.33 69.9 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.25 8.80 8.72 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.5 48 0.08 0.18 18.44 18.42 0.99 0.99 17.8 17.8 72 -0.04 -0.03 30.30 30.23 0.97 0.97 25.7 25.7 96 -0.21 45.16 0.93 33.6 120 -0.07 61.09 0.87 40.6 144 -0.12 76.41 0.79 46.9 168 -0.78 89.77 0.71 51.3 192 -1.80 102.57 0.62 55.3 216 -2.25 115.32 0.52 58.9 240 -2.04 124.41 0.43 61.3 264 -2.21 134.59 0.35 63.6 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.60 0.43 10.99 11.07 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.6 48 -0.05 -0.07 22.61 22.66 0.99 0.99 13.7 13.7 72 -0.60 -0.70 37.34 37.33 0.97 0.97 19.9 20.0 96 -0.89 56.26 0.94 26.7 120 -1.08 76.29 0.88 33.0 144 -1.64 96.80 0.81 39.1 168 -3.01 115.70 0.73 43.5 192 -4.09 132.40 0.65 47.5 216 -4.16 149.58 0.55 51.0 240 -3.17 163.14 0.46 53.5 264 -2.17 176.43 0.37 55.9 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 0.53 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.97 72 0.00 0.00 1.47 1.48 0.93 0.93 96 0.02 1.99 0.87 120 0.02 2.46 0.80 144 0.01 2.95 0.71 168 -0.04 3.39 0.62 192 -0.09 3.75 0.55 216 -0.09 4.06 0.46 240 -0.07 4.33 0.38 264 -0.03 4.57 0.31 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 0.60 0.61 0.99 0.99 48 0.00 -0.01 1.04 1.06 0.96 0.96 72 -0.01 -0.03 1.49 1.49 0.91 0.91 96 -0.01 1.93 0.85 120 0.00 2.36 0.77 144 -0.04 2.77 0.68 168 -0.04 3.05 0.61 192 0.00 3.31 0.54 216 0.05 3.57 0.47 240 0.07 3.79 0.40 264 0.10 3.97 0.34 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.02 2.48 2.45 48 -0.03 -0.03 4.65 4.67 72 0.00 -0.01 6.75 6.76 96 0.02 8.89 120 -0.03 10.85 144 -0.08 12.74 168 -0.07 14.09 192 -0.05 15.34 216 -0.02 16.53 240 -0.01 17.45 264 0.03 18.25 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.07 3.27 3.30 48 -0.21 -0.19 5.83 5.88 72 -0.28 -0.25 8.48 8.50 96 -0.27 11.32 120 -0.37 14.11 144 -0.48 16.85 168 -0.53 19.00 192 -0.51 21.02 216 -0.45 22.78 240 -0.48 24.25 264 -0.43 25.49 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.31 -1.55 7.31 7.41 0.98 0.98 48 -1.50 -0.86 10.03 10.20 0.97 0.97 72 -0.22 -0.49 14.15 13.93 0.95 0.96 96 0.11 19.59 0.92 120 0.29 26.18 0.88 144 -0.15 31.98 0.83 168 0.02 36.52 0.76 192 -0.24 43.66 0.66 216 1.83 48.75 0.59 240 5.39 50.35 0.56 264 4.93 51.64 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.64 -5.77 9.93 9.74 0.98 0.98 48 -5.06 -5.20 12.90 12.90 0.98 0.98 72 -3.22 -4.49 18.85 18.27 0.97 0.97 96 -3.56 26.15 0.96 120 -3.07 36.55 0.92 144 -3.62 48.19 0.86 168 -3.96 57.05 0.81 192 -6.76 67.98 0.70 216 -7.87 76.27 0.62 240 -5.60 82.47 0.56 264 -4.00 84.91 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.36 -6.97 13.51 13.41 0.98 0.99 48 -6.05 -8.14 19.61 19.82 0.99 0.99 72 -5.77 -9.21 29.96 28.90 0.98 0.98 96 -9.72 41.45 0.96 120 -10.15 59.48 0.93 144 -12.94 79.47 0.87 168 -14.57 95.71 0.82 192 -19.61 115.18 0.71 216 -22.57 132.64 0.62 240 -19.74 145.18 0.57 264 -13.01 147.97 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.57 1.24 1.66 0.91 0.91 48 -0.17 -0.48 1.46 1.82 0.93 0.93 72 0.01 -0.34 1.80 2.07 0.92 0.92 96 -0.20 2.40 0.90 120 -0.09 2.91 0.85 144 -0.12 3.40 0.81 168 -0.17 3.89 0.75 192 -0.22 4.57 0.66 216 -0.45 5.09 0.57 240 -0.58 5.59 0.50 264 -0.61 5.70 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 -0.01 0.82 0.85 0.92 0.92 48 0.05 -0.02 1.00 1.03 0.95 0.94 72 0.04 -0.04 1.28 1.26 0.94 0.94 96 -0.08 1.64 0.91 120 -0.11 2.07 0.87 144 -0.15 2.51 0.81 168 -0.20 2.88 0.76 192 -0.34 3.33 0.67 216 -0.46 3.81 0.57 240 -0.46 4.25 0.51 264 -0.24 4.32 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.15 0.84 0.86 0.91 0.91 48 0.11 0.05 1.07 1.08 0.91 0.92 72 0.03 -0.04 1.36 1.37 0.89 0.89 96 -0.13 1.68 0.84 120 -0.21 2.00 0.77 144 -0.35 2.30 0.71 168 -0.39 2.61 0.68 192 -0.39 2.84 0.62 216 -0.48 3.07 0.54 240 -0.40 3.30 0.44 264 -0.27 3.31 0.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.96 3.61 3.76 48 -0.91 -1.00 4.09 4.26 72 -0.96 -1.02 4.71 4.86 96 -1.04 5.54 120 -1.06 6.66 144 -0.97 7.35 168 -0.81 8.14 192 -0.55 8.92 216 -0.48 9.33 240 -0.43 9.67 264 -0.15 9.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.61 3.73 3.78 48 -0.73 -0.72 4.48 4.52 72 -0.66 -0.71 5.50 5.56 96 -0.65 6.67 120 -0.76 8.13 144 -0.73 9.62 168 -0.75 10.95 192 -0.76 12.20 216 -0.40 13.02 240 -0.11 13.84 264 0.34 14.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.74 5.43 5.23 48 -0.74 -0.91 7.09 6.82 72 -0.67 -0.92 9.05 8.80 96 -0.83 10.91 120 -0.89 13.98 144 -1.17 16.84 168 -1.25 19.15 192 -1.22 21.64 216 -0.78 23.17 240 -0.54 24.71 264 -0.21 25.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.12 -3.65 8.77 9.16 0.97 0.97 48 -4.56 -5.59 11.36 12.08 0.97 0.98 72 -4.24 -5.16 15.29 15.30 0.96 0.96 96 -4.24 20.37 0.96 120 -3.49 29.29 0.93 144 -1.85 39.23 0.87 168 3.85 44.52 0.83 192 8.76 50.88 0.78 216 11.80 58.78 0.72 240 9.57 61.50 0.67 264 10.60 69.05 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.07 -6.00 11.38 11.03 0.98 0.98 48 -7.79 -8.12 15.74 15.70 0.98 0.98 72 -7.94 -7.67 23.11 21.83 0.97 0.97 96 -6.82 31.02 0.96 120 -8.92 45.14 0.93 144 -7.91 59.58 0.89 168 0.78 69.79 0.83 192 8.85 79.98 0.76 216 15.91 91.78 0.69 240 14.21 98.81 0.62 264 16.91 100.96 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.36 -6.94 14.41 15.21 0.99 0.98 48 -10.25 -10.68 23.32 23.64 0.98 0.98 72 -12.89 -12.77 36.69 35.20 0.97 0.97 96 -14.05 51.68 0.94 120 -19.67 72.21 0.92 144 -21.35 93.46 0.87 168 -10.92 110.10 0.82 192 1.28 125.24 0.74 216 16.58 144.09 0.68 240 17.64 159.30 0.60 264 23.10 153.33 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 0.01 1.17 1.15 0.89 0.86 48 -0.36 -0.01 1.29 1.30 0.93 0.90 72 -0.35 0.00 1.51 1.48 0.92 0.91 96 0.08 1.75 0.90 120 -0.12 1.98 0.88 144 -0.15 2.44 0.86 168 0.16 3.04 0.82 192 0.29 3.65 0.75 216 0.38 4.25 0.69 240 0.39 4.55 0.63 264 0.41 4.53 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.04 0.80 0.79 0.93 0.93 48 -0.04 -0.05 1.02 1.03 0.95 0.95 72 -0.11 -0.10 1.44 1.40 0.92 0.91 96 -0.18 1.83 0.86 120 -0.41 2.29 0.82 144 -0.47 2.79 0.77 168 -0.33 3.12 0.75 192 -0.10 3.41 0.67 216 0.29 3.99 0.62 240 0.34 4.40 0.55 264 0.51 4.17 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.22 1.03 0.97 0.91 0.92 48 0.18 0.11 1.26 1.20 0.90 0.90 72 0.06 -0.03 1.63 1.58 0.85 0.85 96 -0.07 1.99 0.78 120 -0.14 2.43 0.70 144 -0.33 2.81 0.60 168 -0.39 2.79 0.58 192 -0.31 3.02 0.55 216 -0.13 3.24 0.53 240 0.04 3.47 0.52 264 0.09 3.29 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.51 3.65 3.61 48 -0.71 -0.63 3.97 3.99 72 -0.79 -0.68 4.58 4.47 96 -0.72 5.10 120 -0.86 5.97 144 -1.13 7.02 168 -1.38 7.78 192 -1.37 8.65 216 -1.29 9.60 240 -1.32 9.65 264 -1.09 10.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.56 3.79 3.84 48 -0.72 -0.71 4.59 4.64 72 -0.95 -0.98 5.88 5.89 96 -0.98 7.45 120 -1.22 9.66 144 -1.61 11.32 168 -1.68 12.83 192 -1.67 14.11 216 -1.81 15.69 240 -1.63 17.09 264 -1.81 16.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.80 5.38 5.26 48 -1.10 -1.02 7.22 7.00 72 -1.25 -1.22 9.96 9.56 96 -1.28 12.94 120 -1.81 16.32 144 -2.01 19.32 168 -2.17 21.58 192 -1.14 23.45 216 -1.33 25.95 240 -1.22 29.11 264 -1.44 28.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -1.32 10.61 8.95 0.96 0.96 48 1.17 0.52 12.97 11.91 0.96 0.96 72 3.08 2.89 16.97 15.66 0.95 0.95 96 4.74 20.25 0.92 120 4.70 24.06 0.90 144 3.35 26.50 0.88 168 2.35 31.57 0.82 192 4.03 37.87 0.74 216 4.09 41.74 0.68 240 6.67 46.59 0.64 264 12.12 51.93 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 110 12 UTC = 109 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.92 -1.69 11.47 11.20 0.96 0.96 48 -1.23 0.76 14.17 14.56 0.97 0.97 72 0.56 3.21 19.13 19.64 0.96 0.96 96 5.42 25.79 0.94 120 5.72 31.97 0.92 144 5.23 36.48 0.89 168 4.12 42.73 0.86 192 6.27 51.39 0.81 216 6.60 59.93 0.76 240 10.31 68.70 0.71 264 17.37 74.81 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 118 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.95 -3.45 18.99 18.81 0.96 0.96 48 -6.03 -2.37 23.45 23.69 0.97 0.97 72 -6.36 -1.60 30.70 30.17 0.97 0.97 96 -1.04 40.95 0.95 120 -2.43 51.08 0.92 144 -3.17 60.48 0.89 168 -3.77 72.01 0.86 192 -2.23 86.02 0.81 216 -3.47 98.98 0.77 240 1.14 112.95 0.71 264 8.06 121.20 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 118 12 UTC = 117 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.41 1.70 1.49 0.86 0.88 48 -0.42 -0.32 1.81 1.63 0.89 0.91 72 -0.34 -0.23 1.99 1.81 0.89 0.91 96 -0.12 2.06 0.90 120 -0.06 2.43 0.88 144 -0.03 2.74 0.85 168 -0.01 3.00 0.82 192 0.05 3.39 0.76 216 0.12 3.92 0.70 240 0.21 4.28 0.65 264 0.38 4.64 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 138 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.07 0.98 0.97 0.89 0.90 48 -0.14 -0.07 1.16 1.13 0.92 0.92 72 -0.20 -0.12 1.40 1.36 0.92 0.92 96 -0.15 1.67 0.91 120 -0.15 1.98 0.88 144 -0.16 2.34 0.84 168 -0.19 2.64 0.79 192 -0.20 2.94 0.74 216 -0.19 3.20 0.71 240 -0.13 3.59 0.65 264 -0.06 3.80 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 155 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.02 1.16 1.15 0.87 0.86 48 -0.29 -0.18 1.49 1.41 0.87 0.87 72 -0.43 -0.27 1.78 1.70 0.85 0.85 96 -0.37 2.02 0.81 120 -0.51 2.34 0.77 144 -0.48 2.60 0.74 168 -0.48 2.80 0.72 192 -0.50 3.04 0.67 216 -0.58 3.25 0.65 240 -0.59 3.51 0.60 264 -0.67 3.62 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.75 3.80 3.59 48 -1.02 -0.79 4.31 4.04 72 -1.11 -0.85 4.89 4.71 96 -0.91 5.42 120 -0.94 6.02 144 -0.84 6.41 168 -0.77 7.06 192 -0.84 7.63 216 -0.79 8.18 240 -0.66 8.48 264 -0.59 8.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -0.63 4.00 3.96 48 -1.18 -0.72 4.88 4.71 72 -1.31 -0.93 5.87 5.61 96 -1.01 6.67 120 -0.91 7.73 144 -0.88 8.56 168 -0.84 9.54 192 -0.84 10.52 216 -0.91 11.81 240 -0.89 12.39 264 -0.94 13.23 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 154 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.79 5.27 5.36 48 -1.00 -1.08 6.95 6.82 72 -1.17 -1.26 8.47 8.34 96 -1.22 10.36 120 -1.11 12.11 144 -0.91 14.44 168 -0.99 16.07 192 -1.24 18.06 216 -1.52 19.93 240 -1.58 21.24 264 -1.80 22.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.01 -3.37 6.33 6.94 0.99 0.97 48 -4.25 -2.41 8.37 10.35 0.98 0.95 72 -4.07 -2.22 11.84 14.56 0.98 0.97 96 -3.30 19.53 0.94 120 -4.47 26.81 0.87 144 -5.00 33.81 0.79 168 -7.64 45.36 0.63 192 -4.83 47.66 0.56 216 -6.96 51.62 0.61 240 -10.53 56.80 0.61 264 -12.91 60.52 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.37 -7.37 10.32 12.89 0.98 0.98 48 -7.72 -5.57 13.27 17.22 0.98 0.96 72 -7.27 -4.47 18.07 22.08 0.98 0.96 96 -5.96 31.74 0.93 120 -6.63 40.91 0.87 144 -9.27 54.04 0.80 168 -13.48 66.80 0.69 192 -9.32 69.15 0.67 216 -8.52 77.60 0.69 240 -13.72 85.98 0.61 264 -12.49 87.26 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.05 -8.96 11.66 13.67 0.98 0.98 48 -6.53 -7.54 15.84 20.32 0.98 0.98 72 -7.19 -7.59 23.32 27.44 0.98 0.97 96 -8.24 38.89 0.95 120 -8.11 52.77 0.87 144 -9.64 69.98 0.78 168 -16.53 83.40 0.70 192 -11.62 88.34 0.70 216 -5.04 95.17 0.75 240 -9.54 108.24 0.66 264 -9.45 112.37 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.52 1.22 1.24 0.88 0.89 48 -0.35 -0.35 1.25 1.38 0.91 0.89 72 -0.19 -0.26 1.50 1.63 0.90 0.90 96 -0.21 1.86 0.88 120 -0.12 2.08 0.85 144 -0.15 2.85 0.77 168 -0.18 3.20 0.67 192 -0.35 3.17 0.65 216 -0.04 3.53 0.63 240 0.05 3.82 0.63 264 0.33 4.13 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.20 0.92 0.98 0.92 0.91 48 0.04 0.18 1.04 1.12 0.92 0.92 72 0.03 0.20 1.24 1.26 0.91 0.90 96 0.23 1.50 0.90 120 0.24 1.86 0.80 144 0.19 2.44 0.72 168 -0.02 2.92 0.65 192 0.11 2.97 0.63 216 0.20 3.15 0.61 240 -0.03 3.47 0.53 264 0.02 3.46 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.40 0.41 1.08 1.08 0.90 0.85 48 0.43 0.43 1.25 1.34 0.91 0.90 72 0.45 0.39 1.52 1.59 0.88 0.90 96 0.49 1.92 0.85 120 0.60 2.02 0.83 144 0.86 2.36 0.80 168 0.78 3.24 0.66 192 0.76 3.10 0.66 216 1.10 3.46 0.70 240 1.46 3.91 0.57 264 1.53 3.77 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.57 3.58 3.51 48 -0.36 -0.61 3.93 3.82 72 -0.26 -0.63 4.50 4.43 96 -0.56 5.36 120 -0.45 5.97 144 -0.41 7.07 168 -0.45 8.08 192 -0.82 8.84 216 -0.71 9.30 240 -0.32 9.69 264 -0.45 9.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.55 4.01 4.13 48 -0.62 -0.64 4.74 4.81 72 -0.56 -0.59 5.73 5.77 96 -0.50 7.05 120 -0.21 8.06 144 0.00 9.69 168 0.10 11.84 192 -0.08 12.75 216 -0.12 12.84 240 0.00 13.85 264 -0.32 13.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.57 5.15 4.75 48 -0.93 -0.70 6.29 5.93 72 -0.90 -0.65 7.77 7.46 96 -0.65 9.28 120 -0.81 10.73 144 -0.87 13.61 168 -1.23 16.06 192 -1.52 17.22 216 -0.48 18.07 240 -0.54 19.44 264 -0.73 19.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 15 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.73 -5.24 9.64 10.03 0.72 0.71 48 -4.93 -5.25 10.11 10.53 0.82 0.82 72 -5.33 -5.85 10.82 11.17 0.85 0.84 96 -6.52 11.82 0.81 120 -6.94 12.40 0.77 144 -7.15 13.09 0.75 168 -7.06 13.68 0.72 192 -6.74 13.95 0.70 216 -6.62 14.60 0.67 240 -6.30 14.60 0.68 264 -6.26 15.50 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.19 -9.43 13.89 13.55 0.68 0.61 48 -10.37 -9.42 14.19 13.77 0.81 0.73 72 -10.96 -10.27 14.93 14.62 0.83 0.76 96 -10.87 15.27 0.76 120 -11.36 16.02 0.74 144 -11.29 16.32 0.72 168 -11.17 16.44 0.71 192 -10.86 16.85 0.68 216 -10.54 17.64 0.62 240 -9.96 17.67 0.61 264 -9.69 18.00 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.18 -7.28 14.65 14.06 0.62 0.57 48 -9.31 -8.23 16.05 15.38 0.75 0.70 72 -10.44 -9.78 17.71 17.00 0.77 0.74 96 -10.41 18.26 0.71 120 -11.04 19.55 0.67 144 -10.92 20.28 0.65 168 -11.18 21.22 0.62 192 -10.91 22.19 0.56 216 -10.27 23.03 0.45 240 -8.76 23.39 0.41 264 -7.92 23.79 0.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.61 1.22 1.22 0.45 0.43 48 -0.55 -0.55 1.21 1.22 0.54 0.54 72 -0.46 -0.45 1.19 1.23 0.58 0.58 96 -0.39 1.27 0.56 120 -0.39 1.34 0.53 144 -0.39 1.38 0.51 168 -0.39 1.44 0.50 192 -0.41 1.43 0.51 216 -0.43 1.43 0.48 240 -0.45 1.47 0.47 264 -0.49 1.56 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.21 0.87 0.84 0.53 0.50 48 0.13 0.19 0.91 0.87 0.61 0.59 72 0.09 0.13 0.94 0.91 0.67 0.63 96 0.13 0.94 0.62 120 0.12 1.00 0.62 144 0.11 1.04 0.61 168 0.07 1.06 0.59 192 0.06 1.10 0.56 216 0.06 1.16 0.51 240 0.08 1.21 0.46 264 0.10 1.23 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.14 0.66 0.59 0.57 0.57 48 0.14 0.10 0.72 0.66 0.61 0.62 72 0.16 0.11 0.79 0.73 0.57 0.61 96 0.13 0.79 0.57 120 0.12 0.84 0.52 144 0.12 0.86 0.51 168 0.12 0.90 0.50 192 0.15 0.91 0.52 216 0.18 0.97 0.48 240 0.23 1.02 0.47 264 0.26 1.07 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 84 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.53 3.24 3.30 48 -0.81 -0.70 3.48 3.53 72 -0.84 -0.77 3.73 3.79 96 -0.76 4.04 120 -0.72 4.26 144 -0.70 4.53 168 -0.73 4.83 192 -0.64 5.12 216 -0.57 5.26 240 -0.54 5.50 264 -0.50 5.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.65 3.76 3.70 48 -0.84 -0.77 4.14 4.11 72 -0.98 -0.91 4.45 4.41 96 -1.03 4.82 120 -1.06 5.22 144 -1.09 5.58 168 -1.11 5.97 192 -1.16 6.29 216 -1.15 6.63 240 -1.16 6.93 264 -1.13 7.08 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.85 4.81 4.61 48 -1.17 -1.05 5.78 5.58 72 -1.40 -1.22 6.58 6.58 96 -1.36 7.46 120 -1.61 8.29 144 -1.80 8.82 168 -1.82 9.30 192 -1.75 9.82 216 -1.55 10.53 240 -1.46 10.89 264 -1.45 11.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.70 -3.07 9.89 9.55 0.98 0.98 48 -2.30 -2.98 12.34 12.61 0.98 0.98 72 -1.28 -1.85 16.40 16.40 0.97 0.97 96 -0.64 21.78 0.95 120 -0.12 28.41 0.92 144 0.17 35.16 0.88 168 1.25 41.65 0.82 192 2.04 49.55 0.75 216 2.41 54.72 0.68 240 2.45 58.84 0.65 264 4.07 63.70 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 383 12 UTC = 376 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.22 -4.97 11.91 11.79 0.98 0.98 48 -5.02 -4.91 15.31 15.70 0.98 0.98 72 -4.16 -3.88 21.55 21.62 0.97 0.97 96 -2.73 29.39 0.96 120 -2.70 40.12 0.93 144 -2.53 50.63 0.88 168 -1.63 59.60 0.83 192 -1.14 71.28 0.76 216 -1.03 82.09 0.69 240 -1.37 90.02 0.65 264 0.59 94.08 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 398 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.62 -6.39 17.50 17.24 0.98 0.98 48 -8.00 -7.91 23.44 23.64 0.98 0.98 72 -9.03 -8.78 33.20 32.95 0.97 0.98 96 -9.25 45.85 0.96 120 -11.03 62.79 0.93 144 -12.37 78.95 0.89 168 -12.04 94.03 0.84 192 -12.00 112.34 0.76 216 -11.29 130.37 0.69 240 -11.68 143.87 0.65 264 -8.46 147.68 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 389 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -0.39 1.45 1.46 0.89 0.89 48 -0.42 -0.37 1.60 1.61 0.92 0.92 72 -0.38 -0.32 1.82 1.83 0.92 0.92 96 -0.27 2.12 0.91 120 -0.25 2.52 0.88 144 -0.24 2.93 0.85 168 -0.22 3.35 0.80 192 -0.24 3.92 0.74 216 -0.28 4.47 0.67 240 -0.31 4.81 0.63 264 -0.33 5.01 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 421 12 UTC = 416 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 0.90 0.90 0.92 0.93 48 -0.06 -0.05 1.10 1.10 0.94 0.94 72 -0.10 -0.09 1.39 1.38 0.94 0.94 96 -0.13 1.74 0.91 120 -0.19 2.17 0.88 144 -0.23 2.59 0.84 168 -0.27 2.94 0.79 192 -0.29 3.31 0.73 216 -0.26 3.74 0.66 240 -0.27 4.13 0.61 264 -0.23 4.22 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 449 12 UTC = 441 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.08 1.09 1.08 0.91 0.91 48 -0.03 -0.02 1.38 1.34 0.90 0.91 72 -0.13 -0.12 1.72 1.69 0.88 0.87 96 -0.21 2.05 0.83 120 -0.28 2.45 0.78 144 -0.33 2.77 0.74 168 -0.34 2.98 0.71 192 -0.33 3.24 0.67 216 -0.33 3.45 0.63 240 -0.27 3.67 0.57 264 -0.24 3.72 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 443 12 UTC = 436 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.74 3.67 3.60 48 -0.93 -0.81 4.14 4.05 72 -1.01 -0.87 4.76 4.69 96 -0.91 5.45 120 -0.96 6.29 144 -0.98 6.99 168 -0.97 7.79 192 -0.89 8.58 216 -0.81 9.24 240 -0.72 9.51 264 -0.59 9.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 407 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.59 3.82 3.83 48 -0.85 -0.70 4.66 4.64 72 -0.96 -0.84 5.79 5.74 96 -0.87 7.01 120 -0.96 8.47 144 -1.02 9.83 168 -1.00 11.12 192 -0.95 12.30 216 -0.83 13.59 240 -0.70 14.47 264 -0.59 14.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 439 12 UTC = 430 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.69 5.15 5.14 48 -0.89 -0.91 6.85 6.75 72 -1.03 -1.06 8.84 8.72 96 -1.08 11.20 120 -1.23 13.82 144 -1.25 16.44 168 -1.31 18.58 192 -1.17 20.69 216 -1.09 22.58 240 -1.01 24.32 264 -0.98 25.03 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 435 12 UTC = 426 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.67 -1.11 9.31 10.46 0.98 0.97 48 -1.41 -0.45 12.25 13.74 0.98 0.97 72 -1.49 -0.47 16.48 18.45 0.96 0.96 96 -2.79 25.02 0.94 120 -4.00 32.21 0.90 144 -2.36 38.34 0.83 168 -0.31 45.97 0.74 192 -0.95 51.75 0.70 216 -0.02 60.23 0.61 240 1.42 65.60 0.56 264 2.19 68.56 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 42 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.73 -6.74 12.57 14.29 0.98 0.98 48 -6.18 -5.33 16.43 19.44 0.98 0.97 72 -5.49 -4.16 22.35 25.75 0.97 0.96 96 -5.28 36.81 0.95 120 -7.29 45.82 0.91 144 -8.16 57.45 0.84 168 -9.14 64.23 0.81 192 -9.27 75.40 0.76 216 -4.99 90.35 0.68 240 -0.65 98.52 0.61 264 -0.10 99.23 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.49 -8.37 15.43 17.74 0.98 0.98 48 -5.88 -7.93 20.96 24.27 0.98 0.98 72 -6.75 -7.60 29.42 34.02 0.97 0.97 96 -9.44 48.36 0.95 120 -13.00 61.28 0.92 144 -15.97 76.07 0.87 168 -20.37 89.74 0.84 192 -20.38 108.18 0.77 216 -15.12 128.36 0.70 240 -7.65 140.60 0.64 264 -5.02 147.09 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.71 1.74 1.92 0.89 0.89 48 -0.55 -0.60 1.84 2.11 0.92 0.91 72 -0.36 -0.44 2.09 2.35 0.92 0.92 96 -0.33 2.69 0.90 120 -0.36 3.20 0.87 144 -0.54 3.71 0.82 168 -0.82 4.10 0.77 192 -0.83 4.32 0.72 216 -0.66 4.77 0.66 240 -0.56 5.16 0.64 264 -0.51 5.56 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 -0.03 1.00 1.00 0.92 0.91 48 0.01 -0.04 1.18 1.21 0.92 0.92 72 0.00 0.01 1.41 1.45 0.91 0.92 96 0.06 1.71 0.90 120 -0.07 2.12 0.85 144 -0.21 2.41 0.82 168 -0.33 2.70 0.77 192 -0.31 3.12 0.70 216 -0.22 3.51 0.67 240 -0.06 3.75 0.64 264 0.00 3.99 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.27 0.21 1.25 1.26 0.89 0.90 48 0.30 0.16 1.42 1.51 0.90 0.90 72 0.20 0.10 1.68 1.73 0.89 0.89 96 0.05 2.03 0.86 120 0.10 2.37 0.82 144 0.12 2.68 0.78 168 -0.12 3.03 0.74 192 -0.29 3.35 0.71 216 -0.29 3.66 0.69 240 -0.27 3.90 0.62 264 -0.12 3.91 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.85 4.42 4.52 48 -0.74 -0.94 4.84 5.07 72 -0.70 -0.91 5.34 5.75 96 -0.89 6.61 120 -0.84 7.33 144 -0.85 8.19 168 -1.17 8.88 192 -1.25 9.52 216 -1.11 10.19 240 -0.90 10.66 264 -0.87 10.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.61 4.53 4.77 48 -0.56 -0.59 5.41 5.87 72 -0.40 -0.58 6.66 7.20 96 -0.57 8.68 120 -0.62 10.06 144 -0.72 11.21 168 -0.61 12.53 192 -0.46 13.68 216 -0.85 14.47 240 -0.90 15.64 264 -1.11 15.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND SEPTEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.35 5.63 5.53 48 -0.83 -0.42 6.85 6.91 72 -0.68 -0.16 8.52 8.82 96 -0.33 11.15 120 -0.74 13.08 144 -0.86 15.18 168 -1.10 17.26 192 -0.79 20.06 216 -0.47 21.74 240 -0.73 23.11 264 -0.65 23.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 42 ---------------------------------------------------------