VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY OCTOBER 2015 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.09 0.08 0.85 0.87 0.99 0.99 16.3 17.0 48 0.15 0.11 1.51 1.54 0.98 0.98 25.5 26.3 72 0.21 0.15 2.33 2.34 0.96 0.95 34.0 35.0 96 0.21 3.45 0.90 44.9 120 0.27 4.68 0.81 54.5 144 0.37 5.96 0.70 63.1 168 0.51 7.18 0.57 69.8 192 0.63 8.31 0.45 75.9 216 0.74 9.16 0.34 80.0 240 0.76 9.78 0.24 82.6 264 0.78 10.16 0.19 83.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.60 0.42 6.32 6.47 1.00 1.00 9.8 9.7 48 1.02 0.76 12.97 13.17 0.99 0.99 17.6 17.5 72 1.42 1.03 21.76 22.14 0.97 0.97 25.8 26.0 96 1.34 34.05 0.93 35.0 120 1.60 47.76 0.86 43.8 144 2.07 62.39 0.75 52.0 168 2.56 77.12 0.63 59.0 192 2.67 90.50 0.50 64.8 216 2.79 99.97 0.39 69.1 240 2.91 108.80 0.30 72.3 264 3.41 114.48 0.23 74.1 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.34 8.96 9.06 1.00 1.00 8.5 8.4 48 -0.21 -0.25 18.30 18.65 0.99 0.99 14.9 14.9 72 -0.82 -0.86 30.62 31.11 0.97 0.97 22.0 22.3 96 -1.66 47.91 0.93 30.5 120 -2.43 68.35 0.87 38.8 144 -2.81 90.16 0.76 46.7 168 -2.69 111.45 0.64 53.6 192 -3.33 130.84 0.51 59.4 216 -4.17 143.89 0.41 63.4 240 -4.44 155.60 0.32 66.4 264 -4.16 163.93 0.25 68.3 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.46 0.46 0.99 0.99 48 -0.02 -0.02 0.83 0.83 0.98 0.97 72 -0.05 -0.04 1.26 1.26 0.94 0.94 96 -0.08 1.80 0.88 120 -0.13 2.40 0.79 144 -0.17 2.95 0.68 168 -0.22 3.48 0.56 192 -0.29 3.96 0.44 216 -0.34 4.29 0.34 240 -0.35 4.56 0.26 264 -0.36 4.74 0.20 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.01 0.61 0.60 0.98 0.98 48 -0.07 -0.06 1.02 1.02 0.95 0.95 72 -0.11 -0.09 1.47 1.47 0.90 0.90 96 -0.11 1.96 0.82 120 -0.13 2.48 0.71 144 -0.15 2.95 0.59 168 -0.15 3.31 0.48 192 -0.14 3.63 0.37 216 -0.14 3.89 0.28 240 -0.14 4.11 0.20 264 -0.13 4.19 0.17 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.11 2.06 2.05 48 -0.26 -0.23 3.65 3.66 72 -0.35 -0.33 5.36 5.37 96 -0.40 7.26 120 -0.49 9.18 144 -0.55 11.06 168 -0.60 12.74 192 -0.64 14.19 216 -0.69 15.30 240 -0.68 16.17 264 -0.72 16.60 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.24 -0.19 3.25 3.26 48 -0.37 -0.33 5.46 5.51 72 -0.45 -0.43 7.87 7.92 96 -0.49 10.77 120 -0.53 13.76 144 -0.64 16.85 168 -0.68 19.61 192 -0.70 21.96 216 -0.79 23.81 240 -0.89 24.86 264 -0.90 25.60 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.45 3.29 3.27 0.98 0.98 26.2 25.8 48 -0.62 -0.67 4.52 4.44 0.97 0.97 35.0 34.3 72 -0.93 -0.94 5.76 5.73 0.95 0.94 40.6 40.1 96 -1.14 6.79 0.92 44.4 120 -1.42 7.85 0.90 47.9 144 -1.90 8.74 0.88 51.0 168 -2.38 9.85 0.85 54.0 192 -2.86 10.73 0.82 56.2 216 -3.15 11.90 0.78 58.4 240 -3.37 13.10 0.74 59.9 264 -3.68 13.64 0.71 61.3 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.62 1.26 4.61 4.31 0.98 0.98 22.5 22.6 48 0.58 0.19 6.67 6.44 0.96 0.95 31.5 31.4 72 -0.63 -0.90 8.63 8.55 0.93 0.91 37.6 37.7 96 -1.88 10.42 0.87 42.3 120 -2.77 12.40 0.83 46.1 144 -3.64 14.52 0.77 49.6 168 -4.36 16.67 0.70 53.5 192 -5.14 18.79 0.63 57.3 216 -5.75 20.89 0.54 60.5 240 -6.18 22.72 0.46 63.8 264 -6.23 23.84 0.39 65.4 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.41 0.42 0.97 0.97 48 0.03 0.04 0.66 0.66 0.92 0.93 72 0.07 0.07 0.81 0.83 0.87 0.88 96 0.11 0.94 0.85 120 0.13 1.04 0.82 144 0.15 1.14 0.79 168 0.18 1.25 0.75 192 0.21 1.34 0.71 216 0.23 1.44 0.66 240 0.23 1.52 0.63 264 0.23 1.58 0.60 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.35 0.33 0.95 0.95 48 0.00 -0.02 0.50 0.47 0.90 0.90 72 -0.01 -0.03 0.61 0.59 0.85 0.84 96 -0.05 0.68 0.79 120 -0.07 0.75 0.74 144 -0.08 0.81 0.70 168 -0.09 0.86 0.66 192 -0.09 0.91 0.63 216 -0.11 0.95 0.59 240 -0.12 0.99 0.56 264 -0.13 1.01 0.54 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.12 1.48 1.45 48 -0.26 -0.24 2.24 2.20 72 -0.35 -0.35 2.78 2.76 96 -0.39 3.20 120 -0.42 3.58 144 -0.44 3.93 168 -0.45 4.27 192 -0.48 4.56 216 -0.45 4.81 240 -0.43 4.99 264 -0.41 5.13 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.41 2.95 2.95 48 -0.70 -0.70 4.47 4.44 72 -0.90 -0.91 5.59 5.57 96 -1.01 6.41 120 -1.05 7.09 144 -1.12 7.74 168 -1.13 8.43 192 -1.18 9.14 216 -1.23 9.76 240 -1.23 10.35 264 -1.17 10.84 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.02 0.96 0.92 1.00 1.00 12.2 12.0 48 -0.08 -0.04 1.81 1.75 0.98 0.98 21.0 20.7 72 -0.09 -0.05 2.79 2.76 0.96 0.96 29.2 28.7 96 -0.09 3.90 0.92 36.5 120 -0.10 5.15 0.86 43.5 144 -0.11 6.53 0.78 50.2 168 -0.16 7.84 0.69 56.3 192 -0.21 8.97 0.59 60.6 216 -0.27 9.95 0.49 64.4 240 -0.26 10.89 0.40 67.6 264 -0.25 11.64 0.33 69.0 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.96 0.93 8.13 7.90 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.5 48 1.43 1.51 16.55 16.27 0.99 0.99 17.7 17.5 72 1.89 2.08 26.58 26.15 0.97 0.97 25.0 24.8 96 2.18 38.09 0.93 32.1 120 2.40 51.26 0.88 38.8 144 2.70 65.27 0.80 45.0 168 2.58 79.09 0.71 50.6 192 2.40 92.05 0.60 55.1 216 2.51 102.60 0.50 59.1 240 2.83 113.51 0.39 62.3 264 2.86 122.40 0.31 64.4 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.22 0.98 10.49 10.31 1.00 1.00 8.0 7.9 48 1.48 1.37 20.97 20.66 0.99 0.99 14.0 13.9 72 1.83 1.88 33.80 33.29 0.97 0.97 20.1 19.9 96 2.05 48.32 0.94 26.2 120 2.49 66.32 0.89 32.3 144 3.06 84.89 0.82 38.3 168 3.06 104.41 0.73 44.0 192 2.93 122.60 0.62 48.7 216 3.38 136.58 0.52 52.6 240 4.06 150.65 0.42 55.7 264 4.64 162.59 0.34 58.2 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.02 0.51 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 0.05 0.03 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.97 72 0.06 0.05 1.39 1.39 0.93 0.93 96 0.06 1.84 0.87 120 0.08 2.33 0.79 144 0.09 2.80 0.70 168 0.08 3.26 0.60 192 0.09 3.68 0.49 216 0.11 3.99 0.39 240 0.13 4.26 0.31 264 0.14 4.47 0.24 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.59 0.58 0.99 0.99 48 0.00 -0.01 1.01 0.98 0.96 0.96 72 -0.02 -0.02 1.43 1.41 0.91 0.91 96 -0.03 1.83 0.85 120 -0.01 2.23 0.78 144 0.01 2.61 0.70 168 0.03 2.94 0.61 192 0.04 3.22 0.54 216 0.04 3.46 0.47 240 0.05 3.62 0.43 264 0.07 3.76 0.38 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.06 2.36 2.30 48 -0.08 -0.09 4.33 4.27 72 -0.10 -0.10 6.12 6.08 96 -0.08 7.93 120 -0.08 9.69 144 -0.06 11.48 168 -0.03 13.19 192 0.00 14.61 216 -0.03 15.76 240 -0.09 16.78 264 -0.08 17.59 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.07 3.24 3.21 48 -0.18 -0.16 5.62 5.53 72 -0.27 -0.23 7.97 7.84 96 -0.27 10.34 120 -0.31 12.90 144 -0.30 15.56 168 -0.24 18.27 192 -0.21 20.70 216 -0.18 22.71 240 -0.26 24.15 264 -0.33 25.53 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.37 -1.47 7.44 7.85 0.99 0.99 48 -0.09 -0.22 11.12 11.61 0.99 0.98 72 1.89 1.16 16.54 16.89 0.97 0.97 96 0.62 25.80 0.92 120 2.13 34.28 0.88 144 5.94 44.71 0.80 168 6.84 51.47 0.70 192 7.34 58.07 0.65 216 2.82 61.53 0.61 240 -4.53 61.68 0.63 264 -5.50 67.97 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.42 -6.31 10.72 11.14 0.99 0.99 48 -4.83 -5.75 15.10 15.85 0.99 0.99 72 -2.73 -4.72 22.48 22.66 0.97 0.97 96 -5.25 34.62 0.94 120 -4.79 47.99 0.90 144 -1.11 63.72 0.82 168 0.43 78.20 0.71 192 -1.19 85.86 0.69 216 -6.45 92.49 0.64 240 -10.81 99.35 0.61 264 -11.98 102.61 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.51 -8.59 14.80 15.44 0.99 0.99 48 -7.58 -9.46 22.04 23.44 0.99 0.99 72 -6.31 -9.13 34.72 35.21 0.98 0.98 96 -11.09 53.45 0.95 120 -12.41 76.48 0.91 144 -10.30 102.30 0.83 168 -9.58 126.60 0.72 192 -14.61 141.93 0.67 216 -20.47 153.47 0.64 240 -23.52 162.86 0.64 264 -27.39 167.54 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.64 1.45 1.76 0.92 0.92 48 -0.42 -0.62 1.64 1.92 0.94 0.94 72 -0.33 -0.57 1.93 2.16 0.93 0.93 96 -0.52 2.66 0.89 120 -0.46 3.28 0.85 144 -0.47 4.10 0.77 168 -0.36 4.78 0.64 192 -0.44 5.29 0.57 216 -0.41 5.72 0.55 240 -0.19 5.97 0.55 264 -0.08 6.11 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.15 0.87 0.89 0.95 0.94 48 -0.12 -0.20 1.13 1.11 0.96 0.96 72 -0.15 -0.25 1.49 1.47 0.95 0.95 96 -0.28 2.00 0.92 120 -0.35 2.65 0.86 144 -0.35 3.19 0.79 168 -0.39 3.76 0.67 192 -0.57 4.21 0.61 216 -0.64 4.56 0.56 240 -0.52 4.89 0.56 264 -0.59 5.05 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.15 0.97 0.96 0.93 0.93 48 0.11 0.06 1.23 1.25 0.93 0.92 72 0.07 0.07 1.60 1.62 0.90 0.89 96 0.01 2.04 0.86 120 -0.10 2.57 0.79 144 -0.34 2.96 0.73 168 -0.40 3.23 0.65 192 -0.47 3.56 0.55 216 -0.38 3.75 0.52 240 -0.29 3.93 0.53 264 -0.21 4.18 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.92 3.66 3.82 48 -0.95 -1.08 4.33 4.41 72 -1.08 -1.18 5.19 5.24 96 -1.20 6.48 120 -1.23 7.84 144 -1.20 9.38 168 -1.28 10.13 192 -1.45 10.69 216 -1.52 11.22 240 -1.46 11.33 264 -1.53 11.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.83 3.99 4.15 48 -0.90 -0.99 5.02 5.13 72 -0.98 -1.04 6.55 6.56 96 -1.11 8.65 120 -1.18 10.53 144 -1.37 12.79 168 -1.22 14.45 192 -1.13 15.30 216 -0.88 16.40 240 -0.71 16.98 264 -1.01 16.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.89 5.50 5.56 48 -0.92 -1.12 7.32 7.47 72 -0.92 -1.23 9.74 10.16 96 -1.31 13.22 120 -1.35 16.56 144 -1.50 20.56 168 -1.48 23.88 192 -1.24 26.28 216 -0.85 28.34 240 -0.84 29.67 264 -1.49 28.93 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.32 -3.08 8.12 8.51 0.97 0.97 48 -2.46 -3.25 10.79 11.13 0.98 0.97 72 -1.40 -2.87 15.95 15.20 0.95 0.95 96 -2.57 22.41 0.91 120 -1.07 30.60 0.85 144 -1.15 39.92 0.81 168 -0.02 48.68 0.77 192 1.10 53.29 0.73 216 -0.08 57.92 0.68 240 -2.56 66.57 0.61 264 1.33 67.20 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.52 -6.88 11.13 11.39 0.98 0.98 48 -7.84 -8.45 16.00 16.32 0.98 0.98 72 -8.40 -9.88 25.69 25.17 0.95 0.95 96 -11.22 37.15 0.90 120 -10.54 50.89 0.83 144 -15.39 67.57 0.77 168 -20.70 82.11 0.71 192 -21.10 89.18 0.67 216 -23.45 94.13 0.67 240 -25.03 108.25 0.60 264 -16.72 107.10 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.67 -9.24 14.53 15.59 0.98 0.98 48 -10.91 -12.83 22.51 23.28 0.98 0.98 72 -14.98 -18.23 36.99 37.23 0.95 0.96 96 -22.04 55.14 0.91 120 -21.07 73.92 0.86 144 -29.13 101.94 0.78 168 -37.19 125.41 0.68 192 -35.67 133.21 0.64 216 -44.05 140.53 0.64 240 -49.62 162.93 0.60 264 -37.94 164.72 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 0.04 1.27 1.29 0.87 0.86 48 -0.14 0.03 1.43 1.45 0.90 0.90 72 -0.24 -0.08 1.75 1.71 0.89 0.90 96 -0.17 2.15 0.86 120 -0.21 2.61 0.82 144 -0.49 3.27 0.76 168 -0.92 4.04 0.65 192 -1.09 4.50 0.60 216 -1.11 4.67 0.62 240 -0.91 5.00 0.59 264 -0.58 4.95 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.13 0.79 0.77 0.92 0.93 48 -0.18 -0.23 1.05 1.01 0.93 0.93 72 -0.28 -0.36 1.46 1.41 0.89 0.90 96 -0.50 1.93 0.85 120 -0.46 2.31 0.81 144 -0.71 2.96 0.73 168 -0.99 3.60 0.60 192 -1.01 3.92 0.55 216 -1.21 4.10 0.58 240 -1.35 4.53 0.58 264 -1.05 4.53 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.16 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 48 0.13 0.12 1.17 1.17 0.91 0.91 72 -0.01 0.00 1.56 1.60 0.86 0.85 96 -0.10 2.01 0.80 120 -0.15 2.37 0.71 144 -0.13 2.68 0.67 168 -0.13 3.03 0.63 192 -0.05 3.19 0.61 216 -0.16 3.50 0.56 240 -0.15 3.83 0.57 264 -0.20 3.66 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.77 3.72 3.73 48 -0.75 -0.86 4.06 4.15 72 -0.81 -0.83 4.72 4.75 96 -0.87 5.61 120 -0.66 6.50 144 -0.60 7.72 168 -0.98 8.67 192 -0.95 9.35 216 -0.88 10.05 240 -0.82 10.63 264 -0.77 10.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.56 3.91 3.90 48 -0.52 -0.56 4.94 4.87 72 -0.49 -0.52 6.68 6.50 96 -0.46 8.11 120 -0.36 10.06 144 -0.11 12.22 168 0.03 14.21 192 0.20 15.60 216 0.05 16.08 240 0.00 16.81 264 0.21 17.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.82 5.52 5.46 48 -0.87 -0.81 7.13 7.38 72 -0.80 -0.68 9.88 9.81 96 -0.54 12.62 120 -0.27 16.18 144 0.29 20.37 168 0.59 23.72 192 0.24 25.29 216 -0.74 25.65 240 -0.42 26.78 264 0.00 27.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.43 0.06 11.25 9.04 0.98 0.98 48 2.24 0.80 13.58 11.94 0.97 0.98 72 2.32 1.53 16.28 15.17 0.97 0.97 96 2.12 19.86 0.94 120 2.48 25.73 0.91 144 3.86 34.48 0.85 168 6.65 43.77 0.78 192 10.86 51.29 0.73 216 13.30 57.39 0.67 240 14.11 60.95 0.63 264 14.87 62.62 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 110 12 UTC = 109 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.20 -1.53 11.77 11.51 0.98 0.98 48 -0.91 0.02 15.34 15.00 0.99 0.98 72 -0.16 1.81 19.73 19.95 0.98 0.98 96 3.26 28.58 0.96 120 3.86 38.37 0.94 144 5.53 51.73 0.89 168 8.78 66.10 0.83 192 12.76 75.89 0.78 216 11.42 85.25 0.70 240 10.05 92.31 0.64 264 11.42 97.48 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 118 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.22 -2.68 19.19 18.63 0.98 0.98 48 -4.86 -1.79 23.67 23.31 0.98 0.98 72 -4.78 -0.12 29.51 30.61 0.98 0.98 96 1.10 41.55 0.97 120 1.27 56.44 0.94 144 3.35 75.43 0.89 168 7.63 94.74 0.83 192 12.00 110.40 0.79 216 10.18 124.93 0.73 240 7.51 135.29 0.68 264 7.62 144.32 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 118 12 UTC = 116 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.50 1.81 1.64 0.91 0.92 48 -0.40 -0.43 1.95 1.79 0.93 0.94 72 -0.32 -0.33 2.11 1.95 0.93 0.94 96 -0.21 2.23 0.92 120 -0.17 2.64 0.90 144 -0.09 3.24 0.83 168 -0.06 4.05 0.75 192 -0.17 4.73 0.68 216 -0.56 5.14 0.62 240 -0.75 5.57 0.59 264 -0.63 5.79 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 138 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.08 0.96 1.00 0.94 0.95 48 -0.15 -0.06 1.16 1.20 0.96 0.96 72 -0.13 -0.04 1.42 1.46 0.95 0.95 96 -0.04 1.84 0.93 120 -0.09 2.35 0.90 144 -0.11 2.91 0.85 168 -0.05 3.52 0.78 192 -0.02 4.00 0.71 216 -0.16 4.41 0.68 240 -0.21 4.70 0.65 264 -0.20 4.87 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 0.11 1.13 1.11 0.92 0.92 48 -0.12 0.03 1.38 1.36 0.93 0.93 72 -0.14 0.02 1.68 1.64 0.91 0.91 96 0.05 2.00 0.88 120 0.12 2.47 0.84 144 0.10 2.94 0.79 168 0.11 3.42 0.73 192 0.11 3.77 0.69 216 0.11 3.92 0.66 240 0.04 3.98 0.64 264 0.04 4.03 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.88 3.92 3.77 48 -1.00 -0.97 4.32 4.19 72 -1.04 -1.05 4.77 4.64 96 -1.15 5.30 120 -1.33 6.17 144 -1.34 7.06 168 -1.35 8.06 192 -1.17 8.95 216 -1.05 9.21 240 -1.12 9.60 264 -1.23 9.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.60 4.06 4.12 48 -1.02 -0.80 4.91 5.06 72 -1.12 -0.90 5.83 5.98 96 -1.05 7.34 120 -1.09 9.03 144 -1.14 10.69 168 -1.19 12.17 192 -1.27 13.43 216 -1.17 14.38 240 -1.09 15.31 264 -1.31 15.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.65 4.87 4.99 48 -0.95 -0.92 6.27 6.24 72 -1.03 -1.05 7.57 7.75 96 -1.09 9.90 120 -1.10 12.41 144 -1.16 15.26 168 -1.14 17.44 192 -1.13 19.65 216 -1.15 21.14 240 -1.10 22.89 264 -1.24 23.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 151 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.93 -3.54 7.35 6.31 0.97 0.99 48 -6.16 -4.20 9.64 9.01 0.97 0.98 72 -7.15 -4.56 11.92 12.89 0.96 0.95 96 -4.27 15.69 0.91 120 -3.33 21.68 0.87 144 -3.31 28.44 0.83 168 -8.00 39.23 0.79 192 -10.23 39.83 0.74 216 -16.60 49.86 0.55 240 -21.46 59.92 0.45 264 -21.87 57.93 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.50 -7.82 10.60 11.87 0.98 0.98 48 -8.26 -7.83 13.15 14.83 0.97 0.98 72 -8.81 -7.53 16.37 20.59 0.96 0.93 96 -6.89 24.04 0.93 120 -6.45 30.94 0.89 144 -6.86 43.26 0.76 168 -11.98 57.70 0.68 192 -14.28 58.90 0.72 216 -25.96 70.50 0.56 240 -32.01 90.40 0.45 264 -32.59 89.41 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.08 -6.66 11.37 12.24 0.97 0.98 48 -5.60 -6.43 16.11 17.93 0.97 0.97 72 -6.08 -5.90 20.90 24.71 0.97 0.95 96 -5.22 30.34 0.95 120 -4.51 42.13 0.89 144 -1.22 55.85 0.80 168 -5.86 74.04 0.75 192 -11.65 78.42 0.78 216 -26.26 89.45 0.66 240 -29.65 114.06 0.46 264 -29.80 116.36 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.58 1.31 1.51 0.88 0.89 48 -0.28 -0.45 1.40 1.69 0.92 0.89 72 -0.23 -0.33 1.60 1.86 0.88 0.87 96 -0.24 2.17 0.87 120 -0.24 2.49 0.82 144 -0.13 2.82 0.81 168 -0.24 3.26 0.76 192 -0.44 3.78 0.68 216 -0.90 3.98 0.69 240 -1.08 4.57 0.52 264 -1.04 5.15 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.02 0.85 0.86 0.89 0.85 48 0.08 0.05 0.98 1.04 0.89 0.85 72 0.09 0.07 1.11 1.18 0.89 0.86 96 0.01 1.36 0.81 120 -0.01 1.55 0.78 144 -0.02 2.04 0.67 168 0.04 2.28 0.68 192 0.03 2.32 0.69 216 -0.22 2.50 0.66 240 -0.13 3.00 0.49 264 -0.13 3.06 0.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.38 0.33 1.05 1.07 0.88 0.85 48 0.47 0.37 1.29 1.18 0.89 0.89 72 0.54 0.38 1.57 1.39 0.87 0.85 96 0.51 1.58 0.83 120 0.58 1.88 0.82 144 0.65 2.38 0.67 168 0.86 2.53 0.69 192 0.68 2.70 0.63 216 0.93 2.96 0.61 240 0.94 3.31 0.52 264 0.77 3.16 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.77 3.73 3.96 48 -0.52 -0.85 4.06 4.30 72 -0.47 -0.94 4.58 4.82 96 -0.91 5.35 120 -0.92 6.23 144 -0.92 6.79 168 -0.70 7.34 192 -0.82 8.14 216 -1.06 8.39 240 -0.81 9.39 264 -1.02 10.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.45 3.99 4.10 48 -0.48 -0.60 4.70 5.04 72 -0.42 -0.53 5.53 5.71 96 -0.48 6.84 120 -0.49 7.47 144 -0.61 8.33 168 -0.05 9.88 192 -0.18 10.56 216 -0.24 12.06 240 0.02 13.67 264 -0.01 13.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.54 5.11 5.18 48 -0.83 -0.84 6.27 6.46 72 -0.87 -0.97 7.52 7.72 96 -0.72 8.80 120 -0.66 10.61 144 -0.70 12.96 168 -0.19 15.44 192 -0.99 16.16 216 -1.04 18.28 240 -1.23 20.18 264 -1.71 20.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.95 -5.13 9.92 10.91 0.73 0.70 48 -5.48 -5.33 10.79 11.61 0.84 0.80 72 -6.10 -6.00 11.65 12.32 0.86 0.84 96 -6.35 12.84 0.86 120 -6.79 13.50 0.86 144 -7.05 14.05 0.85 168 -7.33 14.81 0.84 192 -7.87 15.57 0.83 216 -8.16 16.36 0.80 240 -8.62 17.42 0.75 264 -9.09 17.91 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.38 -10.29 14.07 14.67 0.63 0.61 48 -10.89 -10.60 14.64 15.03 0.77 0.75 72 -11.78 -11.58 15.69 16.01 0.80 0.77 96 -12.27 16.72 0.78 120 -12.71 17.29 0.78 144 -12.99 17.89 0.77 168 -13.35 18.60 0.75 192 -13.83 19.34 0.74 216 -14.34 20.24 0.70 240 -14.99 21.34 0.64 264 -15.40 21.95 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.07 -7.92 14.80 15.15 0.60 0.62 48 -8.96 -8.80 16.08 16.33 0.74 0.74 72 -10.36 -10.54 17.92 18.24 0.77 0.76 96 -12.03 19.72 0.74 120 -13.45 21.19 0.72 144 -14.24 22.54 0.70 168 -15.00 23.79 0.67 192 -15.85 25.62 0.63 216 -16.44 26.97 0.59 240 -16.69 27.83 0.57 264 -16.50 28.43 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.50 1.20 1.16 0.49 0.45 48 -0.41 -0.45 1.18 1.18 0.60 0.56 72 -0.37 -0.42 1.18 1.19 0.62 0.57 96 -0.40 1.23 0.57 120 -0.40 1.27 0.54 144 -0.39 1.32 0.54 168 -0.37 1.36 0.53 192 -0.35 1.41 0.53 216 -0.34 1.44 0.52 240 -0.33 1.49 0.50 264 -0.36 1.52 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.05 0.84 0.81 0.51 0.49 48 0.06 0.03 0.88 0.85 0.60 0.59 72 0.01 -0.03 0.92 0.89 0.63 0.59 96 -0.08 0.93 0.60 120 -0.12 0.97 0.61 144 -0.15 1.00 0.57 168 -0.16 1.04 0.55 192 -0.19 1.09 0.51 216 -0.22 1.13 0.51 240 -0.24 1.17 0.50 264 -0.21 1.20 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.14 0.72 0.62 0.61 0.57 48 0.19 0.11 0.80 0.70 0.64 0.64 72 0.19 0.11 0.89 0.79 0.64 0.62 96 0.09 0.85 0.63 120 0.05 0.88 0.63 144 0.02 0.90 0.63 168 -0.02 0.94 0.63 192 -0.02 0.97 0.63 216 -0.02 1.02 0.61 240 -0.03 1.05 0.58 264 -0.02 1.06 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.49 3.36 3.42 48 -0.81 -0.59 3.60 3.68 72 -0.91 -0.68 3.89 3.94 96 -0.78 4.13 120 -0.82 4.36 144 -0.87 4.65 168 -0.92 4.91 192 -1.00 5.15 216 -0.96 5.35 240 -0.86 5.54 264 -0.74 5.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.58 3.78 3.69 48 -0.84 -0.66 4.15 4.03 72 -0.88 -0.77 4.45 4.37 96 -0.90 4.71 120 -1.01 5.06 144 -1.11 5.38 168 -1.10 5.78 192 -1.00 6.11 216 -0.95 6.53 240 -0.92 6.96 264 -1.02 7.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.12 -1.15 4.89 4.86 48 -1.61 -1.45 6.04 6.08 72 -1.91 -1.74 7.09 7.22 96 -1.98 7.92 120 -2.02 8.39 144 -2.04 8.65 168 -2.00 8.99 192 -1.93 9.70 216 -1.88 10.63 240 -1.87 11.34 264 -1.88 11.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.17 -1.99 9.78 9.39 0.98 0.98 48 -0.58 -1.56 12.70 12.67 0.98 0.98 72 0.38 -0.70 17.36 17.27 0.97 0.97 96 0.13 24.75 0.95 120 1.05 33.15 0.91 144 2.03 43.95 0.85 168 3.78 53.77 0.79 192 5.38 62.50 0.72 216 4.74 68.05 0.67 240 3.72 73.02 0.63 264 3.83 76.00 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 383 12 UTC = 376 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.29 -4.51 11.98 12.11 0.99 0.99 48 -3.94 -4.30 16.35 16.53 0.99 0.99 72 -3.23 -3.61 23.51 23.81 0.98 0.98 96 -2.82 34.80 0.95 120 -1.93 47.91 0.92 144 -1.20 64.63 0.86 168 -0.07 80.85 0.78 192 1.05 93.24 0.72 216 -1.06 101.66 0.68 240 -1.91 111.61 0.63 264 -1.08 116.14 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.06 -6.16 17.66 17.76 0.99 0.99 48 -6.91 -7.16 23.90 24.27 0.99 0.99 72 -7.65 -7.62 34.57 35.07 0.98 0.98 96 -8.00 50.72 0.96 120 -7.70 70.57 0.92 144 -7.90 95.09 0.86 168 -7.15 119.16 0.78 192 -5.93 137.05 0.72 216 -9.30 149.15 0.69 240 -11.06 164.59 0.63 264 -10.84 171.43 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 395 12 UTC = 387 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.39 1.53 1.55 0.91 0.91 48 -0.36 -0.37 1.69 1.70 0.94 0.94 72 -0.35 -0.36 1.92 1.92 0.93 0.93 96 -0.32 2.31 0.91 120 -0.27 2.79 0.88 144 -0.25 3.43 0.83 168 -0.27 4.15 0.74 192 -0.31 4.75 0.68 216 -0.40 5.15 0.64 240 -0.38 5.51 0.61 264 -0.28 5.71 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 416 12 UTC = 414 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.07 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.95 48 -0.11 -0.10 1.15 1.16 0.96 0.96 72 -0.15 -0.13 1.50 1.50 0.95 0.95 96 -0.16 1.99 0.93 120 -0.17 2.56 0.88 144 -0.21 3.16 0.82 168 -0.24 3.75 0.75 192 -0.26 4.27 0.68 216 -0.36 4.61 0.64 240 -0.36 4.96 0.61 264 -0.35 5.10 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 444 12 UTC = 439 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.17 1.07 1.07 0.93 0.93 48 0.08 0.12 1.35 1.34 0.93 0.93 72 0.04 0.09 1.70 1.71 0.91 0.91 96 0.05 2.13 0.87 120 0.01 2.64 0.82 144 -0.04 3.10 0.76 168 -0.06 3.46 0.71 192 -0.04 3.79 0.65 216 -0.01 3.99 0.62 240 0.00 4.19 0.59 264 0.01 4.20 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 439 12 UTC = 434 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.81 3.74 3.73 48 -0.87 -0.91 4.22 4.20 72 -0.94 -0.97 4.85 4.85 96 -1.06 5.79 120 -1.09 6.89 144 -1.03 8.14 168 -1.12 9.04 192 -1.08 9.90 216 -1.04 10.46 240 -1.01 10.84 264 -0.97 11.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 406 12 UTC = 401 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.64 3.97 4.05 48 -0.85 -0.80 4.94 5.04 72 -0.93 -0.89 6.27 6.35 96 -0.98 8.05 120 -1.02 9.94 144 -1.04 11.87 168 -0.99 13.51 192 -1.02 14.98 216 -1.00 15.86 240 -1.00 16.71 264 -1.02 17.04 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 435 12 UTC = 430 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.72 5.07 5.08 48 -0.87 -0.90 6.68 6.70 72 -0.94 -1.04 8.75 8.85 96 -1.11 11.51 120 -1.08 14.62 144 -1.09 17.95 168 -1.00 20.74 192 -1.04 23.15 216 -1.14 24.47 240 -1.17 25.75 264 -1.25 26.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 433 12 UTC = 426 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.52 -2.49 9.46 9.89 0.97 0.97 48 -3.49 -2.87 11.72 12.18 0.97 0.98 72 -4.33 -3.35 13.95 15.57 0.96 0.96 96 -4.58 20.59 0.94 120 -5.51 25.77 0.90 144 -6.18 32.39 0.84 168 -8.22 41.07 0.75 192 -11.00 46.80 0.73 216 -13.72 52.72 0.67 240 -15.28 58.83 0.59 264 -15.70 65.43 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.53 -6.17 11.99 12.90 0.97 0.97 48 -6.21 -5.03 14.70 16.18 0.97 0.97 72 -6.69 -5.03 19.43 22.19 0.96 0.95 96 -6.33 29.54 0.93 120 -7.55 38.03 0.90 144 -7.73 46.11 0.84 168 -10.16 58.70 0.73 192 -11.44 67.52 0.72 216 -14.10 76.56 0.67 240 -14.78 86.50 0.58 264 -17.81 92.97 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.65 -8.97 15.97 17.84 0.97 0.97 48 -6.07 -7.54 20.67 22.90 0.97 0.98 72 -6.49 -7.52 27.84 31.54 0.96 0.96 96 -9.29 41.53 0.94 120 -10.51 55.55 0.90 144 -10.02 66.46 0.86 168 -11.83 82.34 0.80 192 -14.85 96.65 0.75 216 -16.19 109.51 0.71 240 -15.50 122.93 0.67 264 -18.07 129.23 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.35 1.67 1.69 0.88 0.90 48 -0.32 -0.15 1.85 1.93 0.91 0.92 72 -0.22 -0.06 2.09 2.16 0.90 0.91 96 -0.03 2.44 0.89 120 0.00 2.76 0.86 144 0.05 3.26 0.80 168 0.00 3.73 0.73 192 0.01 4.27 0.69 216 0.01 4.82 0.66 240 -0.04 5.15 0.62 264 0.02 5.31 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.12 0.93 0.99 0.90 0.91 48 0.01 -0.07 1.09 1.16 0.91 0.92 72 0.01 -0.06 1.32 1.41 0.90 0.90 96 -0.11 1.71 0.86 120 -0.12 2.07 0.82 144 -0.06 2.30 0.78 168 -0.02 2.66 0.74 192 0.02 2.93 0.72 216 0.07 3.30 0.67 240 0.13 3.56 0.63 264 0.00 3.77 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.17 1.14 1.12 0.88 0.89 48 0.26 0.15 1.34 1.25 0.89 0.91 72 0.28 0.09 1.59 1.50 0.87 0.86 96 0.10 1.72 0.83 120 0.12 1.95 0.79 144 0.08 2.27 0.76 168 0.09 2.38 0.73 192 -0.05 2.63 0.69 216 0.03 2.89 0.69 240 0.11 3.19 0.63 264 0.15 3.23 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.79 4.53 4.49 48 -0.61 -0.70 4.83 4.86 72 -0.58 -0.81 5.38 5.36 96 -0.77 5.97 120 -0.90 6.60 144 -0.81 7.37 168 -0.66 8.15 192 -0.88 8.80 216 -0.69 9.51 240 -0.44 10.12 264 -0.46 10.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.57 4.44 4.65 48 -0.61 -0.70 5.21 5.59 72 -0.55 -0.63 6.19 6.47 96 -0.65 7.76 120 -0.72 8.72 144 -0.71 9.70 168 -0.17 11.19 192 -0.29 11.96 216 -0.02 13.75 240 -0.05 14.57 264 -0.02 14.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND OCTOBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.36 5.75 5.84 48 -0.78 -0.55 6.84 7.09 72 -0.75 -0.73 8.23 8.55 96 -0.79 10.14 120 -0.74 11.91 144 -1.05 13.96 168 -0.39 16.63 192 -0.26 18.08 216 -0.04 20.79 240 0.20 22.09 264 0.30 23.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 41 ---------------------------------------------------------