VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY NOVEMBER 2015 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.09 0.91 0.94 1.00 1.00 15.5 16.3 48 0.14 0.13 1.60 1.64 0.99 0.98 24.0 24.9 72 0.17 0.16 2.38 2.46 0.97 0.96 31.8 33.4 96 0.18 3.46 0.93 41.7 120 0.23 4.57 0.87 50.0 144 0.25 5.78 0.80 57.5 168 0.28 7.21 0.70 64.6 192 0.27 8.39 0.59 70.6 216 0.19 9.22 0.49 74.2 240 0.14 10.01 0.40 77.9 264 0.14 10.40 0.35 79.4 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.08 6.60 6.74 1.00 1.00 9.3 9.4 48 0.31 0.12 13.51 13.63 0.99 0.99 17.0 17.1 72 0.19 0.02 21.91 21.98 0.98 0.98 24.8 24.8 96 -0.09 32.42 0.95 32.7 120 0.15 44.97 0.90 40.5 144 0.16 58.51 0.83 47.8 168 -0.05 74.55 0.71 55.1 192 -0.41 88.22 0.60 60.5 216 -1.10 97.75 0.52 64.0 240 -1.65 106.75 0.43 67.5 264 -1.88 112.97 0.35 69.7 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.30 8.97 9.05 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.7 48 -0.33 -0.43 18.72 18.83 0.99 0.99 13.7 13.6 72 -1.06 -1.29 30.54 30.70 0.98 0.98 20.1 20.1 96 -1.89 45.00 0.95 26.9 120 -1.96 62.85 0.90 33.9 144 -1.94 82.02 0.83 40.4 168 -1.97 103.54 0.73 47.5 192 -1.98 123.29 0.62 53.0 216 -2.05 136.85 0.54 56.6 240 -2.55 152.06 0.43 60.5 264 -3.40 163.35 0.34 63.1 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.01 0.46 0.46 0.99 0.99 48 -0.03 -0.03 0.86 0.86 0.98 0.98 72 -0.06 -0.07 1.30 1.30 0.95 0.95 96 -0.10 1.79 0.90 120 -0.11 2.32 0.84 144 -0.12 2.85 0.76 168 -0.13 3.41 0.65 192 -0.13 3.96 0.54 216 -0.11 4.33 0.45 240 -0.12 4.71 0.34 264 -0.15 4.99 0.25 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.02 0.60 0.59 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.03 1.02 1.00 0.96 0.96 72 -0.04 -0.04 1.44 1.43 0.91 0.91 96 -0.02 1.86 0.85 120 -0.02 2.30 0.77 144 0.00 2.69 0.68 168 0.04 3.06 0.58 192 0.07 3.39 0.49 216 0.10 3.61 0.43 240 0.11 3.80 0.36 264 0.11 3.93 0.32 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.10 2.07 2.10 48 -0.23 -0.22 3.74 3.76 72 -0.33 -0.32 5.41 5.40 96 -0.38 7.14 120 -0.40 8.97 144 -0.41 10.77 168 -0.36 12.70 192 -0.31 14.19 216 -0.27 15.13 240 -0.26 16.16 264 -0.25 16.81 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.20 3.17 3.19 48 -0.34 -0.36 5.43 5.40 72 -0.40 -0.45 7.80 7.80 96 -0.48 10.41 120 -0.48 13.24 144 -0.46 15.86 168 -0.41 18.85 192 -0.34 21.37 216 -0.40 22.96 240 -0.46 24.91 264 -0.45 26.23 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.29 3.35 3.32 0.98 0.98 26.5 26.0 48 -0.61 -0.51 4.94 4.63 0.95 0.96 34.5 33.5 72 -0.94 -0.87 5.94 5.59 0.93 0.94 38.8 37.9 96 -1.25 6.15 0.93 40.9 120 -1.74 6.84 0.91 43.8 144 -2.23 7.73 0.89 46.4 168 -2.75 8.74 0.86 49.0 192 -2.93 9.70 0.83 51.2 216 -2.80 10.48 0.80 53.5 240 -2.72 11.39 0.77 55.5 264 -2.76 12.29 0.74 57.1 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.98 0.81 4.66 4.41 0.98 0.98 20.9 20.9 48 -0.19 -0.61 6.91 6.64 0.95 0.95 29.0 28.8 72 -1.32 -1.73 8.66 8.51 0.93 0.92 34.2 34.3 96 -2.60 10.58 0.88 39.0 120 -3.12 12.52 0.83 43.6 144 -3.58 14.75 0.76 47.8 168 -3.95 16.95 0.69 51.6 192 -4.04 19.03 0.60 55.2 216 -3.91 21.10 0.52 58.7 240 -3.89 22.87 0.44 61.6 264 -4.08 24.77 0.35 64.5 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.00 0.43 0.43 0.96 0.97 48 0.02 0.03 0.70 0.67 0.89 0.92 72 0.05 0.05 0.86 0.82 0.83 0.88 96 0.07 0.94 0.85 120 0.08 1.03 0.81 144 0.11 1.14 0.77 168 0.12 1.22 0.74 192 0.13 1.29 0.71 216 0.14 1.37 0.67 240 0.13 1.46 0.62 264 0.14 1.54 0.58 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.37 0.35 0.94 0.94 48 0.00 -0.03 0.52 0.50 0.88 0.87 72 -0.03 -0.06 0.63 0.60 0.82 0.81 96 -0.08 0.68 0.75 120 -0.09 0.74 0.71 144 -0.10 0.79 0.67 168 -0.10 0.83 0.64 192 -0.09 0.86 0.61 216 -0.08 0.90 0.58 240 -0.08 0.94 0.55 264 -0.09 0.96 0.53 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.13 1.41 1.37 48 -0.23 -0.24 2.05 2.00 72 -0.36 -0.35 2.47 2.43 96 -0.41 2.79 120 -0.42 3.09 144 -0.46 3.39 168 -0.46 3.67 192 -0.48 3.91 216 -0.51 4.16 240 -0.52 4.39 264 -0.52 4.60 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.40 2.99 2.96 48 -0.72 -0.73 4.50 4.44 72 -0.93 -0.96 5.58 5.54 96 -1.14 6.48 120 -1.21 7.31 144 -1.27 8.00 168 -1.34 8.62 192 -1.38 9.31 216 -1.37 10.10 240 -1.33 10.84 264 -1.37 11.49 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.06 0.91 0.90 1.00 0.99 12.4 12.4 48 -0.13 -0.11 1.70 1.67 0.98 0.98 21.1 20.9 72 -0.13 -0.11 2.59 2.53 0.96 0.96 28.7 28.3 96 -0.09 3.60 0.92 35.5 120 -0.07 4.72 0.86 42.9 144 -0.01 5.93 0.78 49.3 168 0.05 7.02 0.69 55.2 192 0.12 7.98 0.59 60.0 216 0.21 9.11 0.48 64.3 240 0.24 9.83 0.41 67.6 264 0.26 10.55 0.34 69.1 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.25 1.30 7.95 7.81 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.6 48 2.06 2.04 15.82 15.98 0.99 0.99 17.7 17.6 72 2.87 2.84 25.27 25.14 0.97 0.97 24.9 24.8 96 3.51 36.04 0.94 31.5 120 3.84 48.58 0.88 38.5 144 4.61 62.06 0.81 44.7 168 5.34 75.52 0.73 50.4 192 5.85 86.39 0.64 55.2 216 6.34 99.26 0.52 59.5 240 6.49 107.99 0.44 62.5 264 6.84 117.35 0.35 65.3 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.58 0.56 10.68 10.50 1.00 1.00 8.4 8.4 48 0.57 0.52 21.10 21.34 0.99 0.99 14.9 14.9 72 0.70 0.61 33.89 33.77 0.97 0.97 21.4 21.3 96 0.68 48.09 0.94 27.5 120 0.83 65.19 0.89 34.1 144 1.12 82.56 0.83 40.0 168 1.34 101.81 0.74 45.6 192 1.77 118.51 0.65 50.6 216 2.63 137.44 0.53 55.1 240 3.55 150.07 0.44 58.0 264 4.93 161.80 0.36 60.7 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.02 0.50 0.50 0.99 0.99 48 0.02 0.01 0.94 0.94 0.97 0.97 72 0.00 0.00 1.37 1.36 0.93 0.93 96 -0.01 1.78 0.88 120 -0.02 2.28 0.81 144 -0.03 2.72 0.72 168 -0.03 3.17 0.63 192 -0.05 3.60 0.52 216 -0.06 4.02 0.41 240 -0.04 4.28 0.32 264 0.00 4.53 0.25 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.05 0.59 0.60 0.98 0.98 48 -0.09 -0.10 1.03 1.02 0.95 0.95 72 -0.12 -0.14 1.42 1.41 0.91 0.91 96 -0.17 1.79 0.86 120 -0.17 2.19 0.78 144 -0.19 2.58 0.70 168 -0.22 2.93 0.62 192 -0.21 3.28 0.53 216 -0.16 3.52 0.46 240 -0.09 3.76 0.38 264 -0.07 3.93 0.33 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.11 2.25 2.23 48 -0.18 -0.16 4.14 4.08 72 -0.23 -0.23 5.85 5.79 96 -0.27 7.46 120 -0.30 9.21 144 -0.33 10.86 168 -0.37 12.43 192 -0.38 13.77 216 -0.37 15.01 240 -0.34 15.94 264 -0.33 16.87 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.13 3.31 3.33 48 -0.25 -0.26 5.80 5.79 72 -0.35 -0.37 8.26 8.18 96 -0.45 10.60 120 -0.51 13.17 144 -0.55 15.64 168 -0.60 18.08 192 -0.60 20.37 216 -0.52 22.49 240 -0.44 23.88 264 -0.44 25.06 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.66 -1.83 8.39 8.42 0.99 0.99 48 -0.68 -1.34 12.10 12.71 0.99 0.98 72 0.79 -0.15 17.06 17.96 0.98 0.98 96 0.84 23.92 0.96 120 1.59 30.95 0.91 144 1.10 39.47 0.85 168 3.71 52.26 0.76 192 4.33 60.68 0.70 216 4.44 67.18 0.63 240 -1.78 73.02 0.58 264 -8.06 79.23 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.68 -5.99 11.93 12.71 0.99 0.99 48 -4.38 -5.69 17.39 18.75 0.99 0.99 72 -2.77 -4.60 24.53 25.91 0.98 0.98 96 -4.31 34.83 0.96 120 -5.14 48.57 0.93 144 -5.77 62.78 0.85 168 -5.38 80.73 0.77 192 -5.17 95.74 0.73 216 -5.52 106.85 0.64 240 -12.32 119.42 0.58 264 -18.55 131.63 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.83 -8.74 15.86 16.59 0.99 0.99 48 -6.69 -9.14 23.95 25.51 0.99 0.99 72 -6.49 -9.66 35.98 38.38 0.98 0.98 96 -11.93 52.27 0.97 120 -14.75 71.52 0.93 144 -15.83 94.51 0.86 168 -19.65 115.73 0.79 192 -18.02 139.00 0.74 216 -17.92 155.18 0.67 240 -27.27 179.46 0.60 264 -32.00 196.39 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.52 1.51 1.69 0.93 0.93 48 -0.34 -0.45 1.68 1.86 0.95 0.95 72 -0.25 -0.40 1.89 2.10 0.96 0.95 96 -0.41 2.47 0.94 120 -0.48 3.06 0.90 144 -0.46 3.74 0.80 168 -0.55 4.53 0.74 192 -0.64 5.43 0.64 216 -0.84 6.07 0.56 240 -0.86 6.48 0.54 264 -0.89 6.75 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.13 0.95 1.00 0.96 0.96 48 -0.07 -0.14 1.28 1.30 0.97 0.96 72 -0.13 -0.21 1.69 1.73 0.96 0.96 96 -0.31 2.18 0.93 120 -0.43 2.72 0.89 144 -0.45 3.47 0.81 168 -0.62 4.08 0.71 192 -0.56 4.79 0.66 216 -0.59 5.18 0.58 240 -0.68 5.56 0.55 264 -0.68 6.03 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.11 1.04 1.05 0.94 0.93 48 0.08 0.02 1.30 1.34 0.93 0.92 72 0.01 -0.08 1.66 1.72 0.91 0.90 96 -0.16 2.02 0.88 120 -0.28 2.46 0.83 144 -0.31 2.84 0.74 168 -0.48 3.30 0.70 192 -0.44 3.75 0.62 216 -0.43 3.71 0.63 240 -0.53 3.90 0.59 264 -0.37 4.07 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.91 4.06 4.22 48 -1.02 -0.98 4.66 4.83 72 -1.14 -1.04 5.42 5.59 96 -1.13 6.34 120 -1.17 7.27 144 -1.01 8.56 168 -1.09 10.09 192 -0.71 11.22 216 -0.68 11.72 240 -0.79 12.62 264 -0.88 12.84 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.88 4.47 4.47 48 -1.06 -1.09 5.62 5.68 72 -1.28 -1.23 7.08 7.16 96 -1.38 8.80 120 -1.29 10.38 144 -1.29 12.61 168 -1.19 15.12 192 -1.20 16.84 216 -1.10 18.17 240 -0.96 19.41 264 -0.87 20.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.73 5.78 5.62 48 -0.99 -1.09 7.44 7.42 72 -1.41 -1.38 9.67 9.77 96 -1.61 12.26 120 -1.41 14.68 144 -1.48 17.86 168 -1.33 21.06 192 -1.12 24.44 216 -1.24 26.62 240 -1.33 30.15 264 -0.96 32.19 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.64 -5.13 9.54 10.11 0.98 0.98 48 -5.11 -6.16 13.48 13.61 0.98 0.98 72 -4.03 -7.42 16.88 17.71 0.96 0.96 96 -7.02 24.20 0.91 120 -2.01 30.56 0.86 144 -3.35 40.64 0.85 168 -4.26 57.85 0.77 192 -1.91 69.37 0.69 216 -0.53 68.59 0.70 240 2.00 76.13 0.60 264 5.50 79.67 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.03 -9.67 13.83 14.15 0.98 0.98 48 -11.80 -12.69 19.60 20.02 0.98 0.98 72 -12.92 -14.38 26.04 26.13 0.97 0.96 96 -16.87 37.37 0.93 120 -10.37 50.02 0.89 144 -9.92 64.52 0.82 168 -13.85 81.46 0.77 192 -15.35 105.80 0.69 216 -14.71 104.57 0.70 240 -9.33 118.62 0.63 264 -16.48 127.16 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.50 -11.77 18.72 17.90 0.99 0.99 48 -15.28 -17.59 26.26 27.69 0.98 0.98 72 -20.68 -20.49 38.11 37.94 0.97 0.97 96 -26.71 55.12 0.95 120 -18.32 74.34 0.91 144 -15.81 94.67 0.84 168 -18.44 118.92 0.77 192 -23.02 159.40 0.66 216 -23.32 152.03 0.69 240 -14.62 172.32 0.62 264 -38.44 191.97 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.34 1.37 1.31 0.85 0.84 48 -0.60 -0.48 1.57 1.50 0.88 0.87 72 -0.71 -0.51 1.81 1.70 0.86 0.87 96 -0.68 2.04 0.84 120 -0.67 2.47 0.81 144 -0.48 2.86 0.77 168 -0.66 3.35 0.70 192 -0.87 3.83 0.63 216 -1.17 4.13 0.61 240 -1.06 4.85 0.55 264 -1.66 5.09 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.09 0.96 0.90 0.94 0.95 48 -0.18 -0.23 1.19 1.20 0.95 0.95 72 -0.34 -0.25 1.58 1.50 0.93 0.93 96 -0.46 1.92 0.92 120 -0.35 2.42 0.88 144 -0.28 3.07 0.77 168 -0.38 3.64 0.68 192 -0.63 4.66 0.57 216 -0.66 4.54 0.60 240 -0.40 4.86 0.54 264 -1.19 5.26 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.24 1.08 0.96 0.91 0.92 48 0.11 0.09 1.31 1.18 0.90 0.90 72 -0.04 -0.03 1.55 1.42 0.86 0.89 96 -0.11 1.83 0.80 120 -0.20 2.17 0.77 144 -0.15 2.59 0.66 168 -0.07 2.72 0.62 192 0.11 3.10 0.56 216 -0.09 3.28 0.58 240 -0.08 3.37 0.53 264 -0.56 3.66 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.75 4.07 4.16 48 -0.87 -0.83 4.69 4.68 72 -1.04 -1.03 5.36 5.28 96 -0.99 6.11 120 -0.98 6.90 144 -0.53 8.07 168 -0.49 9.48 192 -0.82 10.23 216 -0.87 10.66 240 -0.91 11.77 264 -1.89 11.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.50 4.47 4.40 48 -0.62 -0.77 5.58 5.34 72 -0.97 -1.02 6.99 6.51 96 -1.33 8.31 120 -1.01 10.29 144 -0.87 12.39 168 -0.70 13.87 192 -0.80 16.70 216 -0.81 16.89 240 -1.24 19.05 264 -1.87 19.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.43 5.45 5.39 48 -0.85 -0.88 7.07 7.18 72 -1.21 -1.23 9.42 9.55 96 -1.57 12.34 120 -1.10 15.94 144 -1.02 19.67 168 -0.71 22.01 192 -0.75 28.03 216 -1.26 27.47 240 -1.80 30.34 264 -2.10 32.22 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 4.34 1.98 11.61 9.82 0.96 0.96 48 5.74 3.27 14.26 12.65 0.96 0.96 72 5.64 3.89 16.67 15.90 0.95 0.96 96 3.62 19.67 0.93 120 3.90 24.55 0.91 144 5.86 28.89 0.89 168 9.04 35.64 0.83 192 10.04 42.89 0.78 216 9.91 48.86 0.73 240 10.75 52.76 0.67 264 10.00 55.53 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 110 12 UTC = 110 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.02 1.26 12.18 12.53 0.97 0.97 48 4.12 3.26 16.58 16.35 0.97 0.97 72 4.83 4.83 20.91 21.41 0.97 0.97 96 6.01 26.88 0.95 120 7.28 34.88 0.93 144 8.85 43.53 0.90 168 11.58 53.86 0.86 192 12.88 62.87 0.81 216 12.88 69.82 0.77 240 13.44 77.27 0.72 264 13.14 82.62 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.06 -0.32 18.17 18.50 0.97 0.96 48 0.06 0.53 23.41 23.63 0.98 0.97 72 0.13 1.13 29.14 30.15 0.97 0.97 96 2.45 36.45 0.96 120 4.93 47.28 0.94 144 7.23 60.77 0.91 168 10.61 75.04 0.87 192 15.21 90.39 0.82 216 19.55 99.31 0.80 240 22.62 111.27 0.76 264 22.29 122.05 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 118 12 UTC = 117 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.09 1.67 1.63 0.85 0.86 48 0.12 0.09 1.85 1.83 0.89 0.90 72 0.28 0.30 2.08 2.09 0.90 0.91 96 0.53 2.40 0.91 120 0.70 2.78 0.89 144 0.78 3.18 0.87 168 0.81 3.72 0.84 192 0.73 4.23 0.78 216 0.61 4.45 0.75 240 0.53 4.79 0.70 264 0.54 5.05 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 137 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.16 0.99 1.00 0.94 0.94 48 -0.20 -0.17 1.20 1.20 0.95 0.95 72 -0.20 -0.16 1.41 1.46 0.95 0.95 96 -0.13 1.78 0.93 120 -0.09 2.15 0.90 144 -0.09 2.58 0.87 168 -0.09 3.06 0.82 192 0.08 3.52 0.77 216 0.16 3.80 0.74 240 0.25 4.08 0.73 264 0.32 4.37 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.33 1.15 1.14 0.91 0.91 48 0.20 0.29 1.41 1.37 0.92 0.92 72 0.21 0.31 1.69 1.70 0.91 0.91 96 0.41 2.04 0.88 120 0.48 2.36 0.84 144 0.57 2.67 0.79 168 0.58 3.03 0.73 192 0.63 3.25 0.71 216 0.82 3.52 0.68 240 0.95 3.77 0.64 264 0.88 3.86 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.97 -1.07 3.82 3.73 48 -1.15 -1.21 4.24 4.13 72 -1.18 -1.27 4.67 4.58 96 -1.27 5.19 120 -1.22 5.80 144 -1.29 6.26 168 -1.22 7.00 192 -0.96 7.86 216 -0.86 8.26 240 -0.79 8.70 264 -0.63 8.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 137 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.64 4.28 4.35 48 -1.07 -0.86 5.18 5.21 72 -1.20 -1.01 6.13 6.14 96 -1.09 7.26 120 -1.12 8.44 144 -1.24 9.51 168 -1.24 11.04 192 -1.20 11.91 216 -0.97 12.49 240 -0.81 13.21 264 -0.95 13.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 151 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.68 5.06 4.98 48 -0.97 -1.04 6.27 6.34 72 -1.14 -1.27 7.75 7.90 96 -1.20 9.38 120 -1.04 11.25 144 -1.11 13.20 168 -0.85 15.43 192 -0.85 17.31 216 -0.64 18.39 240 -0.48 20.15 264 -0.53 21.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 149 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.22 -3.32 6.84 6.63 0.98 0.98 48 -5.29 -4.01 8.77 9.06 0.98 0.99 72 -6.26 -4.28 11.46 12.14 0.96 0.97 96 -2.76 16.85 0.94 120 -4.79 24.41 0.90 144 -7.06 31.52 0.80 168 -7.56 35.24 0.72 192 -6.25 45.52 0.57 216 -8.29 51.39 0.55 240 -9.21 57.28 0.53 264 -11.01 59.65 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.72 -7.83 9.99 11.97 0.98 0.97 48 -6.60 -8.09 12.24 14.12 0.98 0.99 72 -6.13 -7.35 15.80 19.89 0.97 0.96 96 -4.23 28.10 0.90 120 -7.97 34.92 0.89 144 -10.69 44.69 0.83 168 -11.72 56.35 0.77 192 -8.48 65.32 0.59 216 -7.67 77.20 0.55 240 -10.68 86.37 0.51 264 -10.37 86.15 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.46 -6.83 12.03 14.14 0.98 0.98 48 -5.17 -7.70 16.41 17.82 0.98 0.99 72 -3.88 -8.34 22.35 25.13 0.97 0.97 96 -4.05 37.54 0.93 120 -8.24 48.63 0.88 144 -8.32 57.98 0.87 168 -9.74 74.48 0.82 192 -3.95 85.22 0.58 216 -5.69 104.86 0.50 240 -3.84 113.22 0.52 264 -4.33 114.84 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.41 1.34 1.31 0.88 0.90 48 -0.07 -0.37 1.42 1.42 0.93 0.93 72 0.05 -0.23 1.65 1.60 0.92 0.91 96 -0.18 2.07 0.88 120 -0.18 2.22 0.81 144 -0.39 2.68 0.79 168 -0.37 3.39 0.67 192 -0.40 3.69 0.56 216 -0.12 3.87 0.55 240 -0.16 4.42 0.48 264 -0.08 4.56 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.07 0.85 0.88 0.87 0.87 48 0.14 0.07 0.98 1.02 0.91 0.92 72 0.20 0.07 1.16 1.31 0.90 0.87 96 0.19 1.62 0.79 120 0.11 1.89 0.76 144 0.22 2.06 0.75 168 0.16 2.44 0.68 192 0.32 2.58 0.55 216 0.29 3.20 0.38 240 0.32 3.17 0.42 264 0.33 3.18 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.31 0.32 0.94 1.03 0.90 0.90 48 0.36 0.30 1.15 1.15 0.89 0.88 72 0.35 0.22 1.30 1.38 0.87 0.89 96 0.10 1.67 0.88 120 0.21 2.03 0.83 144 0.30 2.32 0.75 168 0.40 2.84 0.63 192 0.40 3.13 0.53 216 0.52 3.32 0.54 240 0.56 3.48 0.57 264 0.65 3.59 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.72 3.77 3.87 48 -0.54 -0.79 4.14 4.17 72 -0.66 -0.70 4.62 4.53 96 -0.79 5.16 120 -0.95 5.98 144 -0.95 6.94 168 -0.83 7.65 192 -0.76 7.94 216 -0.56 8.39 240 -0.26 9.28 264 -0.44 9.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.60 3.99 4.50 48 -0.50 -0.61 4.64 5.17 72 -0.63 -0.79 5.34 5.98 96 -1.05 6.91 120 -0.89 8.64 144 -1.09 10.24 168 -1.05 10.61 192 -0.64 11.90 216 -0.80 12.90 240 -0.37 14.44 264 -0.73 15.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.67 5.17 5.26 48 -0.64 -0.73 6.49 6.31 72 -0.79 -1.02 7.98 8.38 96 -1.29 9.96 120 -1.16 12.02 144 -1.22 14.46 168 -1.38 15.53 192 -1.07 17.38 216 -1.55 19.01 240 -0.84 21.40 264 -1.63 21.83 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 14 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.86 -4.21 9.87 9.98 0.68 0.72 48 -3.76 -4.05 10.20 10.40 0.79 0.80 72 -4.20 -4.64 10.77 10.90 0.80 0.82 96 -5.37 11.38 0.78 120 -6.01 11.83 0.74 144 -6.45 12.39 0.77 168 -7.10 13.12 0.75 192 -7.19 13.80 0.71 216 -7.05 14.45 0.65 240 -6.81 14.70 0.62 264 -6.75 15.48 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.60 -11.38 15.11 15.22 0.63 0.66 48 -12.10 -11.75 15.63 15.62 0.74 0.78 72 -13.10 -12.79 16.72 16.67 0.76 0.78 96 -13.64 17.53 0.74 120 -14.21 18.21 0.72 144 -14.50 18.82 0.71 168 -14.98 19.65 0.70 192 -15.00 20.20 0.65 216 -14.97 20.72 0.60 240 -15.07 21.27 0.53 264 -15.05 21.79 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.55 -10.33 15.98 16.40 0.65 0.68 48 -11.49 -11.24 17.16 17.44 0.77 0.80 72 -13.25 -12.88 19.06 19.17 0.78 0.81 96 -14.29 20.75 0.77 120 -15.07 21.91 0.75 144 -15.41 23.09 0.71 168 -15.91 24.37 0.68 192 -15.58 25.22 0.63 216 -15.23 26.16 0.57 240 -15.52 27.70 0.54 264 -15.84 29.04 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.37 1.03 1.06 0.48 0.41 48 -0.31 -0.37 1.07 1.09 0.53 0.52 72 -0.32 -0.39 1.10 1.13 0.57 0.56 96 -0.41 1.16 0.55 120 -0.43 1.19 0.54 144 -0.40 1.22 0.52 168 -0.38 1.25 0.51 192 -0.39 1.25 0.50 216 -0.38 1.30 0.47 240 -0.41 1.36 0.46 264 -0.42 1.40 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.01 0.79 0.75 0.51 0.55 48 0.01 -0.02 0.82 0.79 0.60 0.61 72 -0.02 -0.06 0.87 0.84 0.61 0.60 96 -0.09 0.88 0.57 120 -0.10 0.92 0.57 144 -0.11 0.97 0.53 168 -0.11 1.01 0.49 192 -0.08 1.04 0.47 216 -0.11 1.09 0.43 240 -0.14 1.11 0.43 264 -0.13 1.14 0.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.10 0.64 0.59 0.57 0.57 48 0.10 0.05 0.69 0.66 0.60 0.62 72 0.05 0.02 0.73 0.71 0.62 0.61 96 -0.01 0.75 0.61 120 -0.04 0.79 0.60 144 -0.04 0.83 0.57 168 -0.03 0.85 0.55 192 -0.01 0.88 0.56 216 0.01 0.90 0.56 240 0.01 0.93 0.55 264 -0.02 0.95 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -0.50 3.27 3.29 48 -0.72 -0.56 3.47 3.48 72 -0.95 -0.70 3.62 3.64 96 -0.81 3.80 120 -0.86 4.02 144 -0.96 4.24 168 -1.01 4.50 192 -1.00 4.71 216 -0.97 4.95 240 -0.89 5.12 264 -0.86 5.25 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.98 -0.77 3.69 3.56 48 -1.16 -0.87 4.14 3.98 72 -1.31 -0.96 4.44 4.34 96 -1.06 4.72 120 -1.14 5.10 144 -1.19 5.47 168 -1.20 5.88 192 -1.10 6.28 216 -1.12 6.63 240 -1.14 6.85 264 -1.25 7.07 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.93 4.58 4.47 48 -1.21 -1.27 5.45 5.59 72 -1.37 -1.50 6.09 6.41 96 -1.64 7.20 120 -1.59 8.00 144 -1.63 8.45 168 -1.76 8.94 192 -1.72 9.36 216 -1.69 10.04 240 -1.64 10.60 264 -1.69 11.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.62 -1.79 10.71 10.33 0.98 0.98 48 0.03 -1.20 14.21 13.99 0.98 0.98 72 0.84 -0.56 18.40 18.65 0.97 0.97 96 0.12 25.01 0.95 120 1.87 32.77 0.92 144 2.56 41.29 0.87 168 3.08 53.80 0.80 192 3.27 62.16 0.74 216 3.46 67.52 0.70 240 2.93 74.87 0.63 264 1.52 79.12 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 379 12 UTC = 376 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.48 -3.83 12.94 13.27 0.99 0.99 48 -2.80 -3.55 18.13 18.58 0.99 0.98 72 -2.07 -2.76 24.74 25.37 0.98 0.98 96 -2.17 34.58 0.96 120 -0.40 47.00 0.93 144 0.30 60.15 0.88 168 0.37 75.97 0.82 192 -0.66 89.85 0.77 216 -0.78 98.22 0.73 240 -1.58 109.29 0.68 264 -4.11 117.38 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 394 12 UTC = 389 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.45 -5.46 18.18 18.04 0.99 0.99 48 -5.41 -6.47 24.90 25.60 0.99 0.99 72 -6.03 -6.80 34.89 35.52 0.98 0.98 96 -7.35 48.47 0.96 120 -5.33 66.05 0.93 144 -4.70 85.53 0.89 168 -5.04 106.07 0.84 192 -5.06 128.23 0.78 216 -3.89 140.14 0.74 240 -4.10 156.98 0.69 264 -8.03 170.91 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 392 12 UTC = 387 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.28 1.53 1.53 0.90 0.90 48 -0.23 -0.24 1.70 1.72 0.93 0.93 72 -0.18 -0.16 1.94 1.96 0.93 0.93 96 -0.11 2.29 0.92 120 -0.07 2.77 0.89 144 -0.03 3.29 0.85 168 -0.05 3.85 0.79 192 -0.15 4.41 0.72 216 -0.32 4.85 0.68 240 -0.33 5.28 0.63 264 -0.40 5.53 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 412 12 UTC = 409 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.10 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.96 48 -0.12 -0.14 1.22 1.23 0.96 0.96 72 -0.16 -0.16 1.58 1.58 0.95 0.95 96 -0.20 1.98 0.93 120 -0.20 2.50 0.90 144 -0.20 3.04 0.85 168 -0.22 3.60 0.79 192 -0.21 4.20 0.73 216 -0.20 4.55 0.69 240 -0.19 4.86 0.65 264 -0.25 5.20 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 441 12 UTC = 437 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.25 1.13 1.11 0.93 0.93 48 0.20 0.19 1.40 1.38 0.93 0.93 72 0.17 0.15 1.75 1.73 0.91 0.91 96 0.16 2.12 0.87 120 0.15 2.48 0.83 144 0.15 2.86 0.77 168 0.13 3.26 0.72 192 0.23 3.57 0.67 216 0.26 3.75 0.64 240 0.34 3.95 0.61 264 0.35 4.08 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 437 12 UTC = 431 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.85 3.89 3.95 48 -0.97 -0.96 4.43 4.46 72 -1.03 -1.05 5.11 5.11 96 -1.05 5.90 120 -1.05 6.78 144 -0.97 7.76 168 -0.91 8.89 192 -0.77 9.78 216 -0.70 10.36 240 -0.73 11.06 264 -0.82 11.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 401 12 UTC = 398 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.69 4.28 4.32 48 -0.92 -0.86 5.34 5.33 72 -1.08 -1.01 6.68 6.57 96 -1.11 8.09 120 -1.08 9.74 144 -1.12 11.42 168 -1.09 13.31 192 -1.04 14.76 216 -0.89 15.66 240 -0.94 16.93 264 -1.01 17.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 431 12 UTC = 426 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.63 5.11 5.03 48 -0.90 -0.94 6.64 6.64 72 -1.08 -1.17 8.72 8.66 96 -1.20 10.92 120 -1.07 13.63 144 -1.14 16.35 168 -1.03 19.06 192 -0.92 22.18 216 -0.89 23.46 240 -1.07 25.86 264 -1.05 27.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 428 12 UTC = 424 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.98 -3.40 9.35 10.24 0.97 0.98 48 -3.78 -2.73 11.82 12.96 0.98 0.98 72 -4.52 -3.06 15.35 17.40 0.97 0.97 96 -3.85 23.72 0.94 120 -5.05 30.31 0.91 144 -4.63 35.67 0.87 168 -3.86 42.20 0.80 192 -2.47 45.46 0.78 216 -1.45 53.41 0.69 240 -3.45 59.22 0.61 264 -2.51 61.80 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.10 -8.28 12.34 13.97 0.98 0.98 48 -6.38 -6.35 15.09 16.60 0.98 0.98 72 -5.59 -5.76 19.62 22.87 0.97 0.97 96 -5.22 31.86 0.94 120 -6.76 42.15 0.92 144 -6.98 50.87 0.88 168 -5.10 62.01 0.82 192 -2.52 68.24 0.77 216 -0.72 79.36 0.67 240 -3.33 87.32 0.61 264 -2.01 91.54 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.78 -11.01 15.73 19.24 0.98 0.98 48 -7.80 -10.24 20.92 23.72 0.98 0.98 72 -6.53 -10.13 28.74 32.77 0.97 0.97 96 -9.21 44.98 0.95 120 -10.52 58.39 0.92 144 -11.76 70.41 0.90 168 -11.46 87.75 0.84 192 -8.81 98.99 0.79 216 -6.23 115.88 0.69 240 -5.42 125.78 0.63 264 -3.70 133.80 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.33 1.60 1.55 0.88 0.88 48 -0.16 -0.15 1.73 1.72 0.92 0.91 72 0.02 -0.01 1.98 1.97 0.91 0.90 96 0.09 2.32 0.88 120 0.09 2.59 0.85 144 -0.07 3.04 0.78 168 -0.04 3.52 0.71 192 0.00 3.91 0.70 216 0.08 4.20 0.64 240 0.09 4.56 0.56 264 0.00 4.78 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.14 0.96 1.01 0.89 0.91 48 -0.05 -0.17 1.12 1.20 0.92 0.92 72 -0.03 -0.17 1.33 1.42 0.91 0.92 96 -0.12 1.78 0.89 120 -0.13 2.08 0.85 144 -0.14 2.36 0.82 168 -0.11 2.72 0.78 192 -0.06 3.03 0.73 216 0.01 3.38 0.63 240 0.07 3.58 0.62 264 0.08 3.78 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 -0.06 1.08 1.09 0.88 0.89 48 0.11 -0.15 1.28 1.28 0.88 0.90 72 0.13 -0.18 1.49 1.48 0.86 0.89 96 -0.22 1.75 0.86 120 -0.17 2.02 0.83 144 -0.28 2.38 0.77 168 -0.34 2.65 0.73 192 -0.32 2.86 0.69 216 -0.29 3.04 0.64 240 -0.16 3.32 0.56 264 -0.08 3.41 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.75 4.72 4.55 48 -0.87 -0.70 5.16 4.92 72 -0.84 -0.72 5.68 5.45 96 -0.76 6.20 120 -0.65 6.95 144 -0.68 7.58 168 -0.88 8.44 192 -0.88 8.89 216 -0.57 9.38 240 -0.40 9.89 264 -0.37 9.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.81 4.49 4.68 48 -0.65 -0.84 5.19 5.42 72 -0.73 -0.98 6.12 6.51 96 -1.16 7.64 120 -0.95 9.05 144 -0.70 10.26 168 -0.61 11.23 192 -0.96 12.22 216 -1.08 13.32 240 -0.95 14.20 264 -1.18 14.98 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 43 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND NOVEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.65 5.91 5.85 48 -0.68 -0.50 7.19 7.12 72 -0.70 -0.61 8.99 8.80 96 -0.79 10.53 120 -0.85 12.99 144 -0.61 14.63 168 -0.32 16.82 192 -0.45 18.33 216 -1.04 20.17 240 -1.06 22.13 264 -1.13 22.98 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 43 ---------------------------------------------------------