VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY DECEMBER 2015 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.08 0.99 1.03 0.99 0.99 15.3 16.0 48 0.16 0.15 1.82 1.83 0.98 0.98 24.0 24.9 72 0.21 0.18 2.73 2.72 0.96 0.96 32.2 33.0 96 0.21 3.93 0.91 41.8 120 0.25 5.22 0.84 50.0 144 0.26 6.46 0.76 57.2 168 0.24 7.73 0.66 63.8 192 0.21 8.73 0.57 68.4 216 0.17 9.41 0.49 71.2 240 0.11 9.99 0.42 74.1 264 0.17 10.49 0.35 76.7 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.11 7.49 7.72 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.6 48 0.11 -0.09 15.58 15.53 0.99 0.99 17.7 17.6 72 0.15 -0.23 24.69 24.82 0.97 0.97 25.4 25.4 96 -0.38 36.96 0.94 33.5 120 -0.48 50.05 0.88 41.1 144 -0.94 63.28 0.81 47.8 168 -1.29 76.43 0.72 53.4 192 -1.70 87.28 0.64 57.4 216 -1.98 96.18 0.56 60.5 240 -2.34 103.41 0.49 62.9 264 -2.14 109.85 0.43 65.2 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.10 9.64 9.74 1.00 1.00 7.6 7.6 48 -0.79 -0.91 20.23 20.11 0.99 0.99 13.5 13.4 72 -1.77 -2.08 33.09 33.02 0.98 0.98 19.8 19.8 96 -3.22 49.42 0.94 26.7 120 -4.10 67.54 0.89 33.5 144 -4.79 86.33 0.83 39.9 168 -5.17 104.28 0.75 45.3 192 -4.50 120.52 0.66 49.6 216 -3.83 134.90 0.58 53.2 240 -3.45 144.94 0.51 55.4 264 -3.26 154.93 0.45 57.8 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 -0.01 0.52 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.03 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 72 -0.06 -0.06 1.48 1.48 0.94 0.94 96 -0.11 2.04 0.89 120 -0.13 2.59 0.81 144 -0.16 3.15 0.73 168 -0.17 3.66 0.63 192 -0.13 4.12 0.53 216 -0.11 4.50 0.44 240 -0.08 4.75 0.38 264 -0.08 4.99 0.32 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.01 0.64 0.64 0.99 0.99 48 -0.05 -0.04 1.08 1.07 0.96 0.96 72 -0.09 -0.07 1.53 1.53 0.92 0.92 96 -0.09 1.99 0.86 120 -0.10 2.42 0.80 144 -0.08 2.81 0.73 168 -0.05 3.14 0.66 192 -0.02 3.36 0.60 216 0.07 3.58 0.54 240 0.12 3.78 0.48 264 0.14 3.97 0.43 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.11 2.33 2.34 48 -0.25 -0.23 4.23 4.22 72 -0.34 -0.33 6.01 6.01 96 -0.40 7.94 120 -0.45 9.92 144 -0.44 11.65 168 -0.41 13.18 192 -0.30 14.46 216 -0.18 15.37 240 -0.11 16.10 264 -0.11 16.80 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.17 3.33 3.32 48 -0.34 -0.33 5.60 5.60 72 -0.45 -0.38 8.01 7.91 96 -0.43 10.55 120 -0.49 13.40 144 -0.46 16.26 168 -0.36 18.58 192 -0.27 20.66 216 -0.13 22.40 240 -0.06 23.61 264 -0.01 24.83 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.33 3.29 3.20 0.99 0.99 25.4 25.2 48 -0.76 -0.57 5.24 4.58 0.96 0.97 33.4 32.6 72 -1.02 -0.78 6.29 5.83 0.95 0.95 37.7 36.7 96 -1.09 6.67 0.94 39.8 120 -1.32 7.52 0.92 42.7 144 -1.42 8.17 0.90 45.4 168 -1.56 8.95 0.89 47.7 192 -1.79 9.83 0.86 49.7 216 -1.86 10.89 0.83 51.5 240 -2.03 11.88 0.80 53.4 264 -2.58 12.69 0.77 55.4 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.58 0.49 4.61 4.52 0.98 0.98 20.0 20.2 48 -0.76 -0.78 7.35 7.36 0.96 0.96 28.0 27.8 72 -1.82 -1.92 9.57 9.56 0.93 0.93 33.2 33.2 96 -2.88 11.78 0.89 37.6 120 -3.31 13.70 0.86 41.4 144 -3.57 15.97 0.80 45.8 168 -3.76 18.18 0.73 49.7 192 -4.05 20.22 0.67 53.1 216 -4.19 21.98 0.61 55.9 240 -4.17 23.40 0.55 58.5 264 -4.83 25.14 0.49 60.5 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 0.43 0.43 0.97 0.97 48 -0.01 -0.01 0.69 0.68 0.91 0.92 72 0.01 0.01 0.86 0.85 0.87 0.88 96 0.03 0.96 0.84 120 0.06 1.05 0.81 144 0.06 1.15 0.77 168 0.06 1.24 0.74 192 0.05 1.32 0.70 216 0.04 1.39 0.67 240 0.05 1.47 0.63 264 0.04 1.56 0.59 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.06 0.38 0.38 0.96 0.96 48 0.04 0.03 0.54 0.54 0.91 0.91 72 0.02 -0.01 0.64 0.65 0.87 0.87 96 -0.03 0.73 0.83 120 -0.05 0.79 0.80 144 -0.06 0.85 0.76 168 -0.06 0.90 0.74 192 -0.06 0.94 0.71 216 -0.07 0.99 0.68 240 -0.08 1.04 0.66 264 -0.08 1.08 0.64 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.11 1.48 1.44 48 -0.19 -0.23 2.14 2.10 72 -0.26 -0.29 2.57 2.54 96 -0.32 2.87 120 -0.37 3.20 144 -0.43 3.51 168 -0.49 3.78 192 -0.48 4.02 216 -0.50 4.23 240 -0.51 4.45 264 -0.49 4.69 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.41 3.15 3.17 48 -0.68 -0.67 4.71 4.70 72 -0.89 -0.89 5.77 5.77 96 -1.07 6.70 120 -1.21 7.58 144 -1.34 8.41 168 -1.48 9.11 192 -1.61 9.79 216 -1.65 10.43 240 -1.68 10.92 264 -1.74 11.37 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.05 0.84 0.82 1.00 1.00 13.1 13.2 48 -0.12 -0.10 1.55 1.52 0.98 0.98 21.9 22.0 72 -0.15 -0.12 2.41 2.35 0.96 0.96 30.2 30.1 96 -0.10 3.32 0.92 38.1 120 -0.09 4.30 0.87 45.2 144 -0.08 5.41 0.79 51.8 168 -0.05 6.59 0.69 58.3 192 0.01 7.57 0.60 62.7 216 0.06 8.37 0.52 66.3 240 0.14 9.21 0.43 69.4 264 0.18 10.10 0.33 72.9 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.71 1.57 7.44 7.35 1.00 1.00 9.8 9.8 48 2.45 2.30 14.32 14.44 0.99 0.99 17.4 17.6 72 2.92 2.95 23.83 23.66 0.97 0.97 25.3 25.3 96 3.45 34.70 0.93 32.9 120 3.65 45.67 0.88 39.5 144 3.76 57.92 0.81 45.8 168 4.16 71.22 0.71 51.8 192 4.66 82.93 0.62 56.3 216 5.07 93.44 0.52 60.5 240 5.79 102.68 0.42 63.4 264 6.33 112.14 0.31 66.8 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.53 0.56 9.82 9.71 1.00 1.00 8.7 8.7 48 0.29 0.32 19.26 19.34 0.99 0.99 15.2 15.3 72 0.28 0.50 31.77 31.72 0.97 0.97 22.1 22.2 96 0.88 47.22 0.93 29.4 120 1.11 63.24 0.88 36.0 144 1.12 80.13 0.81 42.1 168 1.40 98.41 0.72 48.0 192 1.87 114.44 0.63 52.6 216 2.78 128.85 0.53 56.7 240 4.35 141.04 0.44 59.5 264 5.25 153.08 0.35 62.7 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.02 0.47 0.47 0.99 0.99 48 0.01 0.02 0.87 0.88 0.97 0.97 72 0.01 0.02 1.31 1.31 0.92 0.92 96 0.02 1.78 0.86 120 0.03 2.23 0.77 144 0.04 2.67 0.68 168 0.05 3.08 0.58 192 0.05 3.41 0.48 216 0.06 3.72 0.39 240 0.08 3.93 0.33 264 0.09 4.12 0.26 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 0.58 0.60 0.99 0.99 48 -0.15 -0.15 1.03 1.04 0.96 0.96 72 -0.19 -0.19 1.48 1.48 0.92 0.92 96 -0.20 1.92 0.86 120 -0.18 2.29 0.80 144 -0.16 2.64 0.74 168 -0.14 2.99 0.66 192 -0.12 3.27 0.59 216 -0.10 3.54 0.53 240 -0.06 3.72 0.48 264 -0.05 3.95 0.42 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.13 2.10 2.10 48 -0.21 -0.20 3.77 3.80 72 -0.26 -0.27 5.46 5.46 96 -0.33 7.16 120 -0.39 8.66 144 -0.41 10.20 168 -0.40 11.68 192 -0.40 12.93 216 -0.34 14.10 240 -0.22 14.98 264 -0.20 15.87 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.16 3.21 3.21 48 -0.23 -0.23 5.58 5.55 72 -0.28 -0.29 7.94 7.96 96 -0.34 10.51 120 -0.39 13.00 144 -0.38 15.47 168 -0.37 17.81 192 -0.32 19.75 216 -0.28 21.62 240 -0.16 23.03 264 -0.15 24.40 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.12 -1.85 8.34 8.64 0.99 0.98 48 0.97 -1.26 13.22 13.21 0.98 0.98 72 1.92 0.61 18.50 17.94 0.97 0.97 96 0.07 25.18 0.95 120 -1.63 34.43 0.91 144 -3.10 44.93 0.84 168 -3.30 52.90 0.81 192 -5.16 58.64 0.76 216 -6.56 64.59 0.72 240 -1.97 70.16 0.66 264 -2.65 75.70 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.20 -6.13 11.92 12.53 0.99 0.99 48 -4.13 -6.67 18.28 18.19 0.99 0.99 72 -3.16 -4.95 25.86 26.29 0.98 0.98 96 -5.22 37.60 0.95 120 -8.01 50.37 0.92 144 -12.83 67.09 0.87 168 -14.76 80.30 0.81 192 -18.86 92.70 0.75 216 -24.47 103.76 0.71 240 -21.80 110.15 0.66 264 -20.06 116.72 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.69 -9.68 16.26 17.76 0.99 0.99 48 -8.64 -11.99 27.00 26.86 0.99 0.99 72 -8.09 -11.16 38.12 38.85 0.98 0.98 96 -10.90 53.83 0.96 120 -13.45 72.95 0.93 144 -18.35 96.34 0.87 168 -20.26 114.77 0.81 192 -25.91 134.91 0.75 216 -35.37 150.73 0.72 240 -34.20 158.90 0.68 264 -31.61 167.79 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.55 1.59 1.76 0.93 0.92 48 -0.40 -0.57 1.78 1.91 0.94 0.94 72 -0.36 -0.53 2.05 2.18 0.93 0.93 96 -0.49 2.58 0.91 120 -0.60 3.07 0.88 144 -0.79 3.92 0.83 168 -0.96 4.62 0.78 192 -1.10 5.12 0.75 216 -1.26 5.71 0.70 240 -1.43 5.91 0.66 264 -1.34 6.29 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.14 1.02 1.04 0.96 0.96 48 -0.21 -0.24 1.42 1.43 0.96 0.96 72 -0.23 -0.29 1.78 1.85 0.94 0.94 96 -0.28 2.33 0.92 120 -0.29 2.87 0.87 144 -0.45 3.55 0.81 168 -0.49 4.07 0.75 192 -0.57 4.48 0.73 216 -0.91 4.97 0.68 240 -0.95 5.31 0.64 264 -0.75 5.48 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.12 1.10 1.09 0.94 0.94 48 0.10 0.08 1.46 1.42 0.93 0.93 72 0.11 0.04 1.75 1.84 0.91 0.90 96 -0.04 2.21 0.86 120 0.00 2.63 0.82 144 0.16 3.05 0.77 168 0.23 3.41 0.75 192 0.20 3.60 0.70 216 0.37 3.94 0.67 240 0.20 4.17 0.62 264 -0.01 4.34 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.06 -1.05 4.22 4.17 48 -1.19 -1.15 4.87 4.89 72 -1.29 -1.17 5.71 5.70 96 -1.09 6.65 120 -0.86 8.00 144 -0.99 9.53 168 -0.98 10.22 192 -0.70 11.07 216 -1.07 11.55 240 -1.09 12.06 264 -0.85 12.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -1.00 4.86 4.87 48 -1.08 -1.12 6.27 6.17 72 -1.08 -1.23 7.81 7.76 96 -1.21 9.58 120 -1.16 11.80 144 -1.27 14.44 168 -1.28 15.98 192 -1.41 17.23 216 -1.53 18.25 240 -1.54 19.21 264 -1.41 19.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.90 -0.87 6.14 6.12 48 -0.94 -1.02 8.11 8.03 72 -0.91 -1.03 10.39 10.26 96 -1.15 12.96 120 -1.21 16.22 144 -1.26 20.06 168 -0.97 22.73 192 -0.95 25.35 216 -0.73 27.81 240 -0.64 29.32 264 -0.72 29.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 85 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.80 -7.25 9.40 10.84 0.98 0.98 48 -7.34 -9.79 14.27 14.79 0.98 0.97 72 -9.23 -12.81 19.12 20.94 0.96 0.96 96 -15.96 27.07 0.93 120 -19.35 36.37 0.88 144 -19.15 41.55 0.83 168 -18.50 50.19 0.73 192 -23.36 63.78 0.68 216 -23.52 65.05 0.72 240 -31.67 76.36 0.63 264 -32.52 78.41 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.52 -11.42 13.52 14.98 0.99 0.98 48 -12.31 -14.74 19.86 20.55 0.98 0.98 72 -14.51 -18.03 28.09 29.38 0.97 0.97 96 -21.45 39.08 0.95 120 -25.33 53.63 0.89 144 -30.83 64.03 0.87 168 -34.55 76.16 0.79 192 -39.17 89.42 0.75 216 -43.04 99.43 0.75 240 -51.60 116.86 0.64 264 -61.21 127.99 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.84 -13.92 17.85 18.94 0.99 0.99 48 -14.97 -18.35 26.47 27.65 0.98 0.98 72 -18.06 -22.94 39.84 40.79 0.97 0.97 96 -27.48 55.90 0.95 120 -33.42 76.25 0.90 144 -44.64 97.20 0.88 168 -52.27 111.97 0.82 192 -57.51 126.58 0.78 216 -64.56 142.60 0.76 240 -65.94 164.92 0.66 264 -86.22 188.74 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.16 1.36 1.34 0.89 0.88 48 -0.33 -0.26 1.57 1.54 0.88 0.90 72 -0.33 -0.28 1.85 1.84 0.87 0.88 96 -0.32 2.20 0.86 120 -0.21 2.71 0.80 144 -0.61 3.27 0.74 168 -0.89 3.70 0.68 192 -0.96 4.05 0.67 216 -1.22 4.38 0.62 240 -1.47 4.48 0.61 264 -1.91 5.06 0.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.12 0.85 0.81 0.96 0.96 48 -0.06 -0.14 1.14 1.08 0.94 0.95 72 -0.06 -0.16 1.57 1.46 0.93 0.93 96 -0.20 1.85 0.91 120 -0.34 2.28 0.86 144 -0.65 2.91 0.83 168 -0.88 3.31 0.80 192 -0.82 3.47 0.74 216 -1.09 3.87 0.72 240 -0.87 4.39 0.63 264 -1.46 5.05 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.25 0.20 0.94 0.86 0.92 0.92 48 0.13 0.09 1.15 1.07 0.91 0.91 72 0.03 -0.02 1.45 1.36 0.88 0.87 96 -0.04 1.66 0.83 120 -0.11 1.92 0.78 144 -0.19 2.23 0.76 168 -0.29 2.54 0.71 192 -0.45 2.68 0.71 216 -0.42 2.84 0.68 240 -0.05 3.20 0.63 264 0.05 3.29 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.90 3.95 3.92 48 -0.93 -1.02 4.50 4.40 72 -1.00 -1.22 5.39 5.38 96 -1.12 6.12 120 -0.97 7.16 144 -1.12 8.01 168 -1.24 9.07 192 -1.10 10.37 216 -1.14 9.94 240 -0.96 11.09 264 -0.97 11.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.55 3.99 4.03 48 -0.60 -0.69 5.17 5.04 72 -0.69 -1.01 6.66 6.65 96 -1.05 8.10 120 -0.83 10.55 144 -0.83 12.06 168 -0.60 13.65 192 -0.29 15.50 216 -0.13 16.52 240 0.23 17.70 264 0.12 19.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.63 5.23 5.06 48 -0.91 -0.94 7.07 6.84 72 -1.08 -1.32 9.86 9.28 96 -1.33 11.97 120 -1.34 15.78 144 -1.15 19.30 168 -0.70 21.64 192 -0.22 24.12 216 0.11 26.32 240 0.47 27.38 264 0.43 30.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.49 0.21 11.38 10.59 0.96 0.96 48 4.24 1.62 14.63 14.04 0.97 0.97 72 5.42 3.09 18.18 17.18 0.96 0.96 96 3.36 21.39 0.94 120 3.42 25.95 0.92 144 1.99 31.06 0.89 168 -2.16 36.65 0.84 192 -3.39 40.94 0.80 216 -2.82 47.37 0.70 240 -1.46 52.67 0.58 264 1.60 55.43 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 110 12 UTC = 110 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.95 -0.04 13.80 13.66 0.98 0.98 48 4.36 2.94 19.03 18.82 0.98 0.98 72 6.14 5.75 24.52 25.01 0.97 0.97 96 6.78 32.91 0.95 120 7.00 39.98 0.94 144 5.62 46.84 0.92 168 0.59 56.00 0.86 192 -1.88 64.43 0.81 216 -1.02 75.63 0.74 240 -2.30 85.80 0.63 264 -1.08 91.56 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 121 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.82 -1.52 19.44 18.92 0.97 0.98 48 1.67 1.58 25.84 25.43 0.98 0.98 72 3.63 4.41 33.07 33.74 0.97 0.97 96 6.02 43.89 0.96 120 7.57 54.87 0.94 144 6.78 65.27 0.92 168 2.44 79.17 0.87 192 1.64 89.86 0.83 216 2.75 107.85 0.76 240 -0.30 122.24 0.68 264 -0.36 128.46 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 118 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.17 1.81 1.68 0.88 0.89 48 0.03 -0.03 2.01 1.88 0.91 0.92 72 0.15 0.10 2.22 2.11 0.91 0.92 96 0.18 2.41 0.90 120 0.18 2.77 0.89 144 0.12 3.15 0.85 168 0.13 3.57 0.78 192 0.08 3.99 0.73 216 0.02 4.51 0.64 240 -0.05 4.92 0.58 264 -0.14 5.27 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 137 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 1.09 1.05 0.94 0.94 48 -0.02 -0.03 1.33 1.31 0.95 0.95 72 0.01 0.03 1.61 1.60 0.94 0.94 96 0.06 1.97 0.92 120 0.05 2.39 0.90 144 0.03 2.76 0.87 168 -0.05 3.22 0.80 192 -0.04 3.58 0.72 216 -0.05 4.12 0.65 240 -0.19 4.56 0.58 264 -0.28 4.81 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 156 12 UTC = 155 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.21 1.22 1.23 0.92 0.92 48 0.11 0.20 1.53 1.52 0.92 0.92 72 0.15 0.25 1.85 1.83 0.91 0.91 96 0.33 2.23 0.89 120 0.46 2.56 0.86 144 0.58 2.88 0.84 168 0.82 3.31 0.78 192 0.94 3.58 0.76 216 1.02 3.80 0.72 240 1.03 4.16 0.65 264 0.94 4.48 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -1.07 3.93 3.92 48 -1.05 -1.19 4.45 4.44 72 -1.05 -1.23 4.91 4.87 96 -1.19 5.39 120 -1.12 6.06 144 -1.05 6.64 168 -0.99 7.07 192 -0.85 7.44 216 -1.21 7.99 240 -1.31 8.44 264 -1.41 8.83 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.56 4.57 4.57 48 -0.95 -0.80 5.60 5.61 72 -1.00 -0.86 6.62 6.65 96 -0.71 7.89 120 -0.64 9.19 144 -0.56 10.29 168 -0.29 11.42 192 -0.04 12.55 216 -0.24 13.70 240 -0.37 14.57 264 -0.28 15.21 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 154 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -0.80 5.05 5.03 48 -1.25 -1.17 6.34 6.44 72 -1.28 -1.29 7.71 7.80 96 -1.08 9.16 120 -0.97 11.22 144 -0.89 13.08 168 -0.54 15.12 192 -0.30 16.78 216 -0.24 18.88 240 -0.47 20.71 264 -0.11 21.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 154 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.67 -3.78 7.58 7.67 0.95 0.97 48 -6.36 -5.56 10.42 11.46 0.96 0.96 72 -7.88 -5.39 14.28 15.91 0.94 0.95 96 -5.37 19.34 0.93 120 -7.59 24.56 0.91 144 -10.55 33.32 0.78 168 -12.78 39.51 0.74 192 -13.45 45.18 0.65 216 -12.71 46.65 0.62 240 -18.83 52.84 0.60 264 -17.67 54.17 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.55 -8.22 10.30 11.82 0.96 0.98 48 -6.77 -8.68 13.43 17.56 0.97 0.97 72 -7.54 -8.14 18.09 22.57 0.95 0.95 96 -5.53 27.90 0.93 120 -5.78 35.12 0.91 144 -7.65 48.07 0.78 168 -13.05 61.60 0.70 192 -17.78 67.96 0.65 216 -16.44 74.48 0.59 240 -24.66 81.70 0.57 264 -26.98 88.21 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.06 -9.69 14.58 14.31 0.96 0.99 48 -10.67 -11.24 20.09 21.72 0.98 0.98 72 -11.28 -10.50 27.00 29.39 0.96 0.96 96 -5.88 38.90 0.92 120 -2.61 49.30 0.90 144 -2.38 64.23 0.85 168 -10.28 82.81 0.79 192 -19.17 88.56 0.76 216 -22.42 103.33 0.63 240 -26.77 111.69 0.64 264 -30.60 124.09 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 -0.50 1.42 1.39 0.83 0.87 48 0.22 -0.35 1.56 1.48 0.90 0.92 72 0.26 -0.37 1.76 1.64 0.90 0.93 96 -0.32 1.89 0.89 120 -0.14 2.11 0.90 144 -0.06 2.59 0.81 168 -0.19 3.08 0.76 192 -0.59 3.65 0.75 216 -0.69 4.80 0.61 240 -0.94 4.83 0.46 264 -0.96 4.94 0.44 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 0.06 0.86 0.84 0.81 0.92 48 -0.05 0.06 0.97 1.06 0.86 0.92 72 -0.03 0.14 1.12 1.24 0.87 0.91 96 0.35 1.54 0.87 120 0.47 1.77 0.87 144 0.52 2.25 0.79 168 0.26 2.62 0.70 192 0.07 2.43 0.70 216 0.07 2.78 0.55 240 0.14 3.05 0.54 264 -0.14 3.10 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.09 0.90 0.83 0.81 0.94 48 0.02 0.00 1.12 1.06 0.87 0.88 72 -0.03 -0.07 1.35 1.36 0.82 0.89 96 -0.12 1.44 0.86 120 -0.04 1.54 0.83 144 0.26 2.08 0.74 168 0.58 2.46 0.66 192 0.46 2.48 0.63 216 0.10 2.80 0.61 240 0.36 3.13 0.50 264 0.55 3.09 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.50 3.96 3.68 48 -0.33 -0.60 4.42 4.10 72 -0.37 -0.58 4.96 4.65 96 -0.65 5.25 120 -0.37 6.00 144 -0.36 6.54 168 -0.54 7.50 192 -0.47 7.49 216 -0.41 8.27 240 -0.24 8.79 264 -0.51 9.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.67 4.29 4.40 48 -0.59 -0.63 5.02 5.21 72 -0.67 -0.68 5.90 6.00 96 -0.79 7.01 120 -0.88 7.37 144 -0.61 8.72 168 -0.82 9.73 192 -0.57 10.42 216 -0.38 11.24 240 -0.22 12.41 264 -0.39 12.99 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -1.16 5.43 5.70 48 -0.46 -0.98 6.75 7.04 72 -0.52 -0.93 8.47 8.54 96 -1.24 10.02 120 -1.46 11.08 144 -2.01 13.29 168 -2.44 15.59 192 -1.98 16.86 216 -2.48 18.74 240 -2.05 20.14 264 -1.94 22.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.12 -4.56 10.10 10.56 0.74 0.69 48 -4.20 -4.67 10.56 11.08 0.83 0.80 72 -4.61 -5.00 11.00 11.59 0.85 0.82 96 -5.73 12.13 0.81 120 -6.32 12.88 0.78 144 -6.10 13.22 0.77 168 -6.47 13.96 0.75 192 -6.70 14.62 0.74 216 -7.22 15.44 0.71 240 -7.49 16.05 0.66 264 -8.07 16.75 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.25 -10.61 14.86 15.14 0.60 0.62 48 -12.02 -11.19 15.73 15.88 0.74 0.75 72 -13.03 -11.99 16.73 16.78 0.80 0.78 96 -12.86 17.73 0.78 120 -13.36 18.64 0.74 144 -13.06 18.91 0.72 168 -13.25 19.48 0.70 192 -13.59 20.08 0.68 216 -14.11 21.05 0.66 240 -13.90 21.45 0.62 264 -14.44 22.38 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.56 -8.30 16.53 17.60 0.61 0.63 48 -11.51 -8.47 17.69 18.79 0.77 0.73 72 -12.78 -9.65 19.44 20.53 0.78 0.75 96 -10.77 22.47 0.74 120 -11.70 24.39 0.70 144 -11.37 25.93 0.69 168 -11.44 27.28 0.65 192 -11.87 28.63 0.63 216 -12.62 30.44 0.61 240 -12.42 31.07 0.59 264 -13.22 31.85 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.28 1.05 1.10 0.50 0.45 48 -0.28 -0.28 1.09 1.13 0.59 0.57 72 -0.26 -0.26 1.10 1.16 0.63 0.58 96 -0.24 1.18 0.60 120 -0.21 1.20 0.60 144 -0.21 1.22 0.59 168 -0.21 1.27 0.57 192 -0.23 1.32 0.52 216 -0.23 1.33 0.51 240 -0.22 1.35 0.49 264 -0.23 1.43 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 74 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.05 0.84 0.85 0.51 0.58 48 -0.07 -0.03 0.88 0.91 0.60 0.66 72 -0.10 -0.06 0.93 0.98 0.64 0.68 96 -0.09 1.04 0.65 120 -0.11 1.10 0.63 144 -0.10 1.18 0.59 168 -0.10 1.26 0.57 192 -0.09 1.32 0.54 216 -0.11 1.36 0.51 240 -0.10 1.39 0.52 264 -0.12 1.44 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.19 0.66 0.71 0.56 0.59 48 0.12 0.17 0.72 0.79 0.64 0.64 72 0.10 0.17 0.77 0.86 0.64 0.62 96 0.15 0.91 0.62 120 0.12 0.94 0.61 144 0.11 1.00 0.57 168 0.11 1.04 0.56 192 0.11 1.06 0.57 216 0.11 1.11 0.55 240 0.11 1.16 0.54 264 0.10 1.17 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.46 3.46 3.40 48 -0.59 -0.52 3.70 3.63 72 -0.68 -0.55 3.92 3.80 96 -0.64 3.99 120 -0.75 4.22 144 -0.83 4.43 168 -0.83 4.67 192 -0.83 4.83 216 -0.90 5.00 240 -0.91 5.18 264 -0.87 5.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.83 -0.89 3.81 3.80 48 -0.88 -0.92 4.19 4.23 72 -0.91 -0.90 4.52 4.64 96 -0.86 5.05 120 -0.84 5.45 144 -0.78 5.89 168 -0.76 6.29 192 -0.86 6.64 216 -0.89 6.97 240 -0.87 7.23 264 -0.79 7.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.88 4.64 4.83 48 -0.76 -0.89 5.65 6.05 72 -0.88 -0.98 6.33 6.94 96 -1.23 7.67 120 -1.41 8.39 144 -1.52 9.10 168 -1.58 9.76 192 -1.69 10.43 216 -1.63 11.04 240 -1.52 11.57 264 -1.64 11.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -2.07 10.64 10.91 0.98 0.98 48 -0.08 -1.87 15.18 15.06 0.98 0.98 72 0.56 -1.33 20.82 20.47 0.97 0.97 96 -1.84 28.27 0.95 120 -2.28 37.11 0.91 144 -3.03 45.56 0.86 168 -4.20 54.80 0.79 192 -5.37 63.50 0.74 216 -5.24 67.64 0.71 240 -4.79 73.05 0.67 264 -3.80 76.65 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 377 12 UTC = 371 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.28 -4.06 13.73 14.09 0.99 0.99 48 -2.47 -4.06 19.96 19.93 0.98 0.98 72 -1.68 -3.03 27.91 28.01 0.97 0.97 96 -3.24 39.42 0.95 120 -4.19 51.59 0.92 144 -6.04 64.99 0.88 168 -8.77 78.20 0.82 192 -10.95 90.25 0.77 216 -12.57 100.62 0.72 240 -14.00 108.78 0.67 264 -13.78 116.28 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 392 12 UTC = 386 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.27 -5.99 18.82 19.21 0.99 0.99 48 -5.19 -6.75 26.92 27.12 0.98 0.98 72 -4.81 -6.36 37.91 38.37 0.98 0.98 96 -6.30 53.07 0.96 120 -7.25 70.61 0.93 144 -9.06 90.26 0.89 168 -12.36 108.05 0.85 192 -13.99 124.89 0.80 216 -16.70 141.78 0.75 240 -18.04 152.81 0.70 264 -19.42 165.51 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 389 12 UTC = 383 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.24 1.61 1.59 0.91 0.91 48 -0.19 -0.23 1.82 1.79 0.93 0.93 72 -0.14 -0.17 2.08 2.06 0.92 0.92 96 -0.12 2.45 0.91 120 -0.14 2.92 0.88 144 -0.25 3.58 0.83 168 -0.32 4.18 0.77 192 -0.39 4.58 0.72 216 -0.51 5.06 0.66 240 -0.66 5.32 0.62 264 -0.70 5.71 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 412 12 UTC = 404 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 1.02 1.01 0.96 0.96 48 -0.09 -0.11 1.33 1.33 0.96 0.96 72 -0.10 -0.10 1.72 1.73 0.94 0.94 96 -0.10 2.21 0.92 120 -0.15 2.71 0.89 144 -0.18 3.27 0.85 168 -0.28 3.78 0.80 192 -0.27 4.24 0.75 216 -0.38 4.71 0.69 240 -0.45 5.04 0.64 264 -0.50 5.36 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 442 12 UTC = 434 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.21 1.14 1.14 0.94 0.93 48 0.18 0.20 1.46 1.45 0.93 0.93 72 0.18 0.19 1.84 1.82 0.91 0.91 96 0.22 2.23 0.89 120 0.28 2.62 0.85 144 0.35 2.97 0.82 168 0.44 3.34 0.78 192 0.42 3.62 0.74 216 0.47 3.85 0.71 240 0.54 4.12 0.66 264 0.52 4.30 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 436 12 UTC = 429 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.87 -0.93 4.01 3.99 48 -1.01 -1.03 4.64 4.64 72 -1.05 -1.10 5.42 5.41 96 -1.05 6.30 120 -0.97 7.31 144 -0.96 8.30 168 -0.98 9.17 192 -0.87 9.95 216 -1.13 10.24 240 -1.16 10.77 264 -1.12 11.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 399 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.71 4.49 4.53 48 -0.94 -0.89 5.73 5.73 72 -1.01 -1.03 7.17 7.17 96 -0.97 8.79 120 -0.94 10.77 144 -0.87 12.52 168 -0.73 13.98 192 -0.64 15.35 216 -0.77 16.30 240 -0.78 16.89 264 -0.71 17.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 430 12 UTC = 422 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.79 -0.72 5.18 5.16 48 -1.03 -1.01 6.85 6.82 72 -1.08 -1.14 8.99 8.87 96 -1.05 11.16 120 -1.06 14.11 144 -0.95 17.05 168 -0.69 19.42 192 -0.46 21.52 216 -0.51 23.53 240 -0.52 24.57 264 -0.43 25.93 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 429 12 UTC = 420 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.54 -4.06 8.90 9.83 0.97 0.97 48 -4.28 -4.20 11.73 12.44 0.97 0.97 72 -5.43 -4.26 15.31 16.10 0.96 0.96 96 -4.44 19.48 0.94 120 -4.60 23.93 0.92 144 -4.13 30.05 0.85 168 -5.73 37.76 0.79 192 -5.81 43.06 0.71 216 -6.77 48.53 0.65 240 -6.90 52.92 0.62 264 -4.13 59.09 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.25 -8.31 12.07 13.25 0.97 0.97 48 -6.60 -7.06 14.68 15.96 0.97 0.97 72 -6.83 -6.32 19.30 20.64 0.96 0.96 96 -5.57 27.66 0.94 120 -4.25 33.16 0.91 144 -4.27 42.36 0.84 168 -6.71 54.41 0.80 192 -8.01 62.04 0.71 216 -6.77 70.11 0.65 240 -7.13 77.72 0.61 264 -4.21 85.12 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.64 -10.85 16.25 17.37 0.97 0.98 48 -10.15 -9.97 21.27 22.09 0.97 0.98 72 -9.67 -8.95 28.92 29.72 0.96 0.96 96 -6.79 40.49 0.94 120 -5.24 49.44 0.92 144 -5.82 61.86 0.87 168 -9.33 77.60 0.83 192 -11.66 89.33 0.75 216 -9.81 99.28 0.71 240 -7.55 109.62 0.68 264 -5.97 118.98 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.42 1.69 1.53 0.85 0.88 48 -0.09 -0.21 1.83 1.70 0.91 0.91 72 0.01 -0.15 2.00 1.89 0.90 0.90 96 -0.08 2.10 0.86 120 0.03 2.35 0.85 144 0.04 2.79 0.78 168 0.01 3.12 0.73 192 -0.13 3.65 0.68 216 -0.08 4.10 0.60 240 -0.23 4.21 0.57 264 -0.19 4.40 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 0.00 0.93 0.92 0.86 0.91 48 -0.06 0.02 1.08 1.14 0.90 0.92 72 -0.02 0.04 1.25 1.35 0.89 0.90 96 0.11 1.72 0.87 120 0.18 1.96 0.84 144 0.11 2.34 0.78 168 0.05 2.57 0.75 192 0.03 2.75 0.71 216 0.16 3.07 0.66 240 0.16 3.35 0.63 264 0.12 3.36 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.09 0.97 0.93 0.87 0.92 48 -0.08 -0.13 1.21 1.16 0.88 0.91 72 -0.10 -0.08 1.46 1.38 0.86 0.89 96 -0.03 1.66 0.84 120 -0.06 1.88 0.81 144 0.03 2.17 0.78 168 0.09 2.40 0.74 192 0.08 2.61 0.70 216 -0.04 2.73 0.68 240 0.03 2.85 0.66 264 0.01 3.11 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 42 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.96 4.43 4.30 48 -0.69 -1.01 4.78 4.66 72 -0.65 -0.88 5.19 5.12 96 -0.98 5.60 120 -0.85 6.25 144 -0.77 6.94 168 -0.71 7.68 192 -0.68 7.84 216 -0.62 8.77 240 -0.46 9.22 264 -0.51 9.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.63 4.48 4.32 48 -0.70 -0.72 5.19 5.02 72 -0.77 -0.73 6.10 5.86 96 -0.83 6.75 120 -0.87 7.48 144 -0.71 8.82 168 -0.97 9.68 192 -0.72 10.45 216 -0.36 12.07 240 -0.25 12.49 264 -0.36 12.98 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND DECEMBER 2015 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.87 5.67 5.62 48 -0.39 -0.84 7.06 6.91 72 -0.56 -1.10 8.92 8.57 96 -1.43 9.99 120 -1.55 11.45 144 -1.48 13.66 168 -1.60 15.56 192 -1.19 17.08 216 -1.03 19.13 240 -1.32 19.97 264 -1.24 21.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 41 ---------------------------------------------------------