VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JANUARY 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.01 1.05 1.07 1.00 0.99 16.2 16.6 48 0.01 -0.02 1.84 1.86 0.98 0.98 25.1 25.8 72 -0.01 -0.07 2.78 2.77 0.96 0.96 33.3 34.2 96 -0.11 3.82 0.93 42.3 120 -0.14 4.99 0.88 50.0 144 -0.19 6.33 0.80 57.4 168 -0.28 7.48 0.72 63.4 192 -0.35 8.57 0.63 68.5 216 -0.42 9.57 0.54 72.2 240 -0.49 10.40 0.46 75.5 264 -0.52 11.13 0.38 77.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.89 7.72 7.83 1.00 1.00 9.5 9.5 48 -1.05 -1.51 16.00 15.96 0.99 0.99 17.6 17.5 72 -1.60 -2.30 26.17 25.99 0.97 0.97 25.6 25.5 96 -2.93 37.40 0.95 32.8 120 -3.59 49.88 0.91 39.7 144 -4.30 64.10 0.84 46.0 168 -4.92 77.55 0.77 51.8 192 -5.50 88.96 0.69 56.0 216 -6.17 100.24 0.60 59.8 240 -6.59 110.31 0.51 62.4 264 -7.27 117.69 0.44 64.3 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.45 9.92 10.07 1.00 1.00 7.7 7.7 48 -1.66 -1.83 20.51 20.43 0.99 0.99 13.5 13.4 72 -2.99 -3.31 33.36 32.94 0.98 0.98 19.7 19.5 96 -4.75 47.57 0.95 25.7 120 -5.81 63.08 0.92 31.6 144 -6.53 80.90 0.86 37.5 168 -7.18 99.01 0.79 42.8 192 -7.36 115.73 0.71 47.3 216 -7.44 132.08 0.61 51.3 240 -7.96 146.77 0.52 54.1 264 -7.98 155.34 0.45 56.2 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.01 0.53 0.54 0.99 0.99 48 -0.06 -0.06 0.99 0.99 0.97 0.97 72 -0.10 -0.09 1.47 1.46 0.94 0.94 96 -0.14 1.97 0.90 120 -0.18 2.47 0.84 144 -0.20 2.97 0.76 168 -0.20 3.46 0.68 192 -0.22 3.93 0.57 216 -0.20 4.33 0.47 240 -0.21 4.63 0.39 264 -0.20 4.81 0.34 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.06 0.69 0.69 0.98 0.98 48 0.01 0.04 1.15 1.15 0.96 0.95 72 0.00 0.03 1.58 1.59 0.91 0.91 96 0.03 2.01 0.86 120 0.04 2.42 0.79 144 0.05 2.77 0.73 168 0.06 3.11 0.65 192 0.08 3.41 0.58 216 0.10 3.75 0.49 240 0.13 3.95 0.44 264 0.12 4.07 0.40 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.09 2.42 2.41 48 -0.20 -0.19 4.45 4.42 72 -0.29 -0.28 6.37 6.36 96 -0.33 8.20 120 -0.37 9.94 144 -0.34 11.68 168 -0.36 13.29 192 -0.42 14.53 216 -0.47 15.67 240 -0.55 16.42 264 -0.55 16.95 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.16 3.46 3.47 48 -0.37 -0.33 5.76 5.76 72 -0.46 -0.40 8.15 8.03 96 -0.44 10.47 120 -0.39 12.82 144 -0.37 15.48 168 -0.39 17.88 192 -0.53 19.97 216 -0.59 21.95 240 -0.62 23.40 264 -0.74 24.23 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 0.05 3.32 3.22 0.98 0.98 27.9 27.2 48 -0.04 0.11 5.39 4.89 0.96 0.96 37.3 35.9 72 0.03 0.23 6.79 6.22 0.93 0.94 43.0 41.6 96 0.28 7.34 0.91 45.9 120 0.36 8.48 0.88 49.3 144 0.27 9.53 0.85 52.5 168 0.12 10.63 0.82 55.0 192 -0.07 11.72 0.79 57.8 216 -0.11 12.77 0.75 60.3 240 -0.14 13.87 0.70 62.6 264 -0.44 14.72 0.67 64.4 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.51 0.46 4.91 4.80 0.99 0.99 18.6 18.6 48 -1.07 -1.13 7.90 7.78 0.97 0.97 26.0 26.0 72 -2.15 -2.50 10.53 10.42 0.94 0.94 31.3 31.1 96 -3.76 12.65 0.92 35.3 120 -4.75 14.68 0.89 38.5 144 -5.41 17.05 0.85 42.0 168 -6.33 19.62 0.80 45.3 192 -7.02 22.42 0.74 49.0 216 -7.46 25.05 0.68 52.5 240 -7.76 27.01 0.64 55.8 264 -8.20 28.80 0.59 58.0 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.04 0.47 0.48 0.96 0.96 48 0.03 0.01 0.76 0.75 0.90 0.91 72 0.07 0.05 0.94 0.95 0.85 0.85 96 0.08 1.09 0.80 120 0.11 1.22 0.75 144 0.13 1.32 0.70 168 0.13 1.42 0.66 192 0.12 1.52 0.61 216 0.10 1.63 0.56 240 0.08 1.72 0.50 264 0.06 1.82 0.45 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.03 0.41 0.40 0.97 0.96 48 -0.01 -0.03 0.60 0.60 0.93 0.92 72 -0.04 -0.07 0.74 0.75 0.89 0.87 96 -0.11 0.84 0.84 120 -0.14 0.91 0.81 144 -0.18 0.99 0.78 168 -0.21 1.06 0.75 192 -0.23 1.12 0.72 216 -0.24 1.19 0.69 240 -0.25 1.27 0.65 264 -0.28 1.34 0.62 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.11 1.50 1.48 48 -0.21 -0.25 2.22 2.17 72 -0.26 -0.31 2.77 2.71 96 -0.35 3.19 120 -0.40 3.59 144 -0.42 3.94 168 -0.43 4.26 192 -0.45 4.55 216 -0.44 4.80 240 -0.46 5.04 264 -0.47 5.31 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.39 3.30 3.28 48 -0.69 -0.69 4.89 4.83 72 -0.85 -0.84 6.01 5.97 96 -0.94 6.84 120 -1.00 7.61 144 -1.06 8.43 168 -1.03 9.28 192 -0.98 10.13 216 -0.96 10.90 240 -0.95 11.70 264 -0.95 12.25 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.02 0.83 0.83 0.99 0.99 13.1 13.6 48 -0.06 -0.03 1.60 1.57 0.98 0.98 22.4 22.8 72 -0.05 0.00 2.44 2.43 0.96 0.95 30.7 31.1 96 0.03 3.38 0.91 38.9 120 0.05 4.47 0.84 46.7 144 0.12 5.62 0.75 53.2 168 0.22 6.65 0.65 59.1 192 0.30 7.70 0.53 64.1 216 0.39 8.56 0.43 68.2 240 0.46 8.98 0.38 70.0 264 0.55 9.40 0.33 71.7 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.98 1.93 7.35 7.43 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.7 48 3.00 3.06 15.08 15.10 0.99 0.99 17.6 17.7 72 3.79 4.01 24.23 24.28 0.97 0.97 25.4 25.3 96 4.62 34.86 0.94 32.8 120 5.14 47.85 0.88 40.1 144 5.77 61.24 0.81 46.8 168 6.41 73.14 0.73 52.1 192 7.09 85.29 0.62 57.5 216 7.99 96.04 0.53 61.7 240 8.63 100.81 0.49 63.5 264 9.50 106.91 0.42 65.7 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.01 0.92 9.92 10.11 1.00 1.00 8.7 8.8 48 1.11 0.94 20.77 20.73 0.99 0.99 15.9 15.9 72 1.27 1.26 33.93 34.12 0.97 0.97 23.0 23.1 96 1.58 50.11 0.94 30.3 120 2.00 68.38 0.88 37.4 144 2.42 88.00 0.80 44.3 168 2.68 104.19 0.72 49.5 192 3.37 121.15 0.61 54.7 216 4.46 136.28 0.51 58.9 240 5.27 143.25 0.46 60.8 264 6.02 151.62 0.40 63.0 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.02 0.46 0.46 0.99 0.99 48 0.03 0.02 0.87 0.88 0.97 0.97 72 0.03 0.02 1.30 1.31 0.93 0.93 96 0.03 1.77 0.87 120 0.04 2.23 0.79 144 0.04 2.71 0.68 168 0.03 3.12 0.58 192 0.03 3.49 0.48 216 0.04 3.82 0.37 240 0.05 3.99 0.31 264 0.04 4.13 0.26 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.09 0.59 0.59 0.98 0.98 48 -0.16 -0.17 1.03 1.04 0.95 0.95 72 -0.20 -0.21 1.47 1.48 0.90 0.90 96 -0.23 1.91 0.83 120 -0.25 2.30 0.75 144 -0.27 2.68 0.66 168 -0.29 2.99 0.57 192 -0.28 3.30 0.48 216 -0.27 3.54 0.41 240 -0.26 3.72 0.35 264 -0.23 3.87 0.30 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.14 2.05 2.07 48 -0.22 -0.23 3.78 3.80 72 -0.30 -0.29 5.46 5.47 96 -0.33 7.10 120 -0.36 8.80 144 -0.37 10.50 168 -0.39 11.90 192 -0.42 13.24 216 -0.47 14.27 240 -0.54 14.71 264 -0.56 15.32 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.18 3.26 3.25 48 -0.29 -0.31 5.82 5.76 72 -0.39 -0.40 8.37 8.30 96 -0.43 10.95 120 -0.49 13.72 144 -0.49 16.52 168 -0.50 18.76 192 -0.53 20.87 216 -0.60 22.52 240 -0.75 23.27 264 -0.81 24.22 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.51 -2.99 8.27 8.98 0.99 0.98 48 -2.07 -2.68 12.57 12.99 0.98 0.98 72 -2.45 -2.74 18.15 18.37 0.97 0.97 96 -3.76 25.60 0.95 120 -5.18 33.01 0.91 144 -8.20 42.14 0.85 168 -8.38 48.81 0.84 192 -8.29 55.98 0.78 216 -4.45 61.72 0.70 240 -1.36 67.67 0.64 264 -0.51 71.83 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.00 -6.82 11.86 12.72 0.99 0.99 48 -5.98 -7.14 19.20 20.17 0.99 0.99 72 -6.25 -7.21 28.76 28.57 0.98 0.98 96 -7.84 41.49 0.95 120 -7.95 53.06 0.91 144 -9.95 66.44 0.87 168 -9.82 78.90 0.85 192 -10.14 86.11 0.82 216 -7.79 97.21 0.75 240 -7.15 106.90 0.71 264 -8.35 116.45 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.12 -8.61 15.56 16.94 0.99 0.99 48 -7.82 -9.56 26.07 26.66 0.99 0.99 72 -7.49 -10.03 38.31 39.11 0.98 0.98 96 -10.07 55.06 0.95 120 -8.77 70.52 0.90 144 -9.40 86.74 0.88 168 -8.31 103.79 0.85 192 -6.78 113.84 0.84 216 -3.23 126.80 0.77 240 -2.63 141.65 0.72 264 -2.81 152.20 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.51 1.68 1.74 0.93 0.93 48 -0.36 -0.49 1.90 1.95 0.95 0.95 72 -0.28 -0.40 2.25 2.25 0.94 0.94 96 -0.39 2.83 0.92 120 -0.29 3.50 0.86 144 -0.20 4.14 0.82 168 -0.14 4.86 0.77 192 -0.13 5.25 0.75 216 -0.39 5.71 0.69 240 -0.69 6.04 0.66 264 -0.87 6.27 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.11 0.99 1.00 0.96 0.96 48 -0.13 -0.16 1.36 1.38 0.96 0.96 72 -0.15 -0.21 1.82 1.82 0.95 0.95 96 -0.26 2.36 0.91 120 -0.17 2.84 0.84 144 -0.15 3.37 0.78 168 -0.13 3.84 0.76 192 -0.16 4.16 0.76 216 -0.13 4.54 0.69 240 -0.20 4.84 0.65 264 -0.18 5.09 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.35 0.33 1.31 1.33 0.94 0.94 48 0.48 0.44 1.73 1.76 0.92 0.92 72 0.59 0.59 2.18 2.18 0.89 0.90 96 0.72 2.67 0.85 120 0.74 3.16 0.77 144 0.83 3.55 0.71 168 1.03 3.99 0.64 192 1.23 4.19 0.65 216 1.23 4.61 0.59 240 1.31 4.84 0.57 264 1.33 4.78 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.88 4.07 4.16 48 -0.92 -1.00 4.67 4.74 72 -0.94 -0.96 5.44 5.45 96 -1.00 6.42 120 -0.98 7.64 144 -1.04 8.73 168 -1.34 9.71 192 -1.19 10.46 216 -1.43 11.36 240 -1.45 11.62 264 -1.29 12.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.78 4.66 4.76 48 -0.87 -0.98 6.14 6.43 72 -0.88 -1.03 7.98 8.00 96 -1.09 10.03 120 -1.00 12.00 144 -1.12 13.74 168 -1.28 15.35 192 -0.97 16.45 216 -1.10 17.94 240 -0.73 18.24 264 -0.85 19.04 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.03 -1.16 6.12 6.30 48 -1.23 -1.39 8.16 8.49 72 -1.28 -1.49 10.67 10.83 96 -1.46 13.28 120 -1.22 16.28 144 -1.32 18.74 168 -1.14 21.92 192 -0.66 22.79 216 -0.66 24.24 240 -0.22 25.65 264 -0.75 27.09 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.83 -4.57 9.13 9.94 0.98 0.98 48 -3.67 -7.16 13.83 15.11 0.97 0.97 72 -4.36 -9.07 20.27 20.88 0.94 0.94 96 -7.82 26.47 0.93 120 -5.69 32.76 0.91 144 0.49 41.54 0.87 168 5.88 55.80 0.83 192 10.63 74.99 0.76 216 5.58 86.21 0.67 240 8.63 96.57 0.65 264 15.60 102.08 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.09 -8.25 12.34 12.98 0.99 0.98 48 -8.99 -12.66 18.72 20.30 0.98 0.98 72 -11.77 -16.74 28.54 28.69 0.95 0.96 96 -16.89 38.65 0.94 120 -16.67 47.92 0.93 144 -9.20 58.14 0.89 168 1.93 77.11 0.84 192 14.60 99.06 0.79 216 21.25 121.15 0.69 240 26.19 136.44 0.63 264 31.17 152.02 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.56 -10.28 16.41 16.89 0.99 0.99 48 -12.01 -16.14 26.16 26.44 0.98 0.98 72 -17.41 -24.05 40.91 40.88 0.96 0.97 96 -26.73 56.46 0.95 120 -27.20 72.32 0.93 144 -16.06 89.75 0.89 168 1.22 115.76 0.84 192 24.74 141.72 0.81 216 41.45 179.34 0.70 240 50.08 208.49 0.59 264 55.16 223.58 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.38 -0.24 1.25 1.19 0.89 0.88 48 -0.48 -0.36 1.48 1.41 0.90 0.89 72 -0.60 -0.49 1.84 1.74 0.89 0.88 96 -0.58 2.07 0.87 120 -0.71 2.45 0.87 144 -0.59 2.81 0.84 168 -0.33 3.49 0.80 192 -0.16 4.01 0.76 216 0.44 4.80 0.68 240 0.69 5.29 0.58 264 0.74 5.49 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.19 0.88 0.96 0.96 0.95 48 -0.25 -0.28 1.22 1.22 0.95 0.95 72 -0.41 -0.44 1.74 1.65 0.91 0.93 96 -0.59 2.11 0.90 120 -0.73 2.59 0.88 144 -0.64 3.21 0.83 168 -0.20 3.96 0.77 192 0.53 4.67 0.72 216 1.31 5.39 0.65 240 1.42 6.03 0.54 264 1.28 6.23 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.36 0.27 1.12 1.07 0.91 0.89 48 0.26 0.16 1.38 1.34 0.89 0.87 72 0.22 0.13 1.74 1.60 0.84 0.86 96 0.09 1.86 0.80 120 0.02 2.18 0.73 144 0.14 2.50 0.72 168 0.25 2.85 0.67 192 0.13 3.15 0.61 216 0.34 3.49 0.57 240 0.73 3.77 0.55 264 1.01 3.86 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.71 4.27 4.32 48 -0.77 -0.76 4.92 5.04 72 -0.94 -0.92 5.87 6.00 96 -1.07 6.80 120 -1.20 7.75 144 -1.28 9.04 168 -0.65 10.30 192 -0.38 11.36 216 -0.23 12.15 240 -0.30 12.52 264 -0.33 13.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.39 4.40 4.36 48 -0.47 -0.52 5.71 5.60 72 -0.86 -0.77 7.41 6.91 96 -1.12 8.59 120 -1.07 10.26 144 -1.28 12.01 168 -0.88 14.65 192 -0.31 16.99 216 -0.50 18.48 240 -0.43 19.45 264 -0.33 19.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.45 5.40 5.38 48 -0.52 -0.58 7.20 7.18 72 -1.15 -0.93 9.70 9.02 96 -1.43 11.81 120 -1.26 14.91 144 -1.08 18.69 168 -0.84 22.23 192 -0.42 26.22 216 -0.86 29.27 240 -0.62 31.30 264 -0.69 31.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.43 -0.10 12.47 11.45 0.95 0.95 48 2.29 -0.37 15.26 14.68 0.95 0.95 72 1.77 -0.83 17.89 17.70 0.95 0.95 96 -0.46 22.18 0.93 120 -0.01 28.31 0.88 144 1.33 34.55 0.84 168 -0.83 39.98 0.84 192 -2.91 46.01 0.80 216 -4.05 51.14 0.73 240 -4.33 57.22 0.65 264 -5.25 62.27 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 115 12 UTC = 114 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.88 -0.47 13.54 13.81 0.97 0.97 48 1.68 0.21 18.06 18.29 0.97 0.97 72 1.54 0.19 23.31 23.61 0.97 0.97 96 0.75 30.01 0.95 120 1.49 40.36 0.89 144 3.25 53.00 0.83 168 0.62 62.92 0.81 192 -0.95 69.58 0.79 216 -1.72 75.47 0.72 240 -2.62 88.35 0.63 264 1.15 94.43 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 124 12 UTC = 123 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -1.04 18.63 19.07 0.97 0.97 48 0.48 -0.43 24.18 24.49 0.98 0.98 72 0.45 0.13 31.59 31.63 0.97 0.97 96 0.32 40.42 0.95 120 1.22 52.94 0.91 144 2.94 70.42 0.86 168 -0.76 83.19 0.82 192 -1.83 92.87 0.79 216 -2.22 104.80 0.71 240 -4.71 120.90 0.63 264 -2.65 130.96 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 123 12 UTC = 122 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.03 1.75 1.72 0.87 0.88 48 0.16 0.11 1.91 1.86 0.92 0.92 72 0.24 0.19 2.10 2.03 0.92 0.93 96 0.29 2.32 0.90 120 0.40 2.74 0.85 144 0.46 3.30 0.78 168 0.54 3.81 0.75 192 0.64 4.16 0.74 216 0.64 4.58 0.67 240 0.66 5.13 0.58 264 1.06 5.46 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 137 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.12 1.04 1.03 0.94 0.93 48 -0.09 -0.10 1.24 1.24 0.95 0.95 72 -0.10 -0.09 1.51 1.51 0.93 0.94 96 -0.09 1.81 0.91 120 -0.11 2.19 0.87 144 -0.10 2.73 0.80 168 -0.17 3.21 0.74 192 -0.19 3.55 0.72 216 -0.19 3.86 0.66 240 -0.29 4.28 0.58 264 -0.13 4.54 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 156 12 UTC = 155 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.34 1.30 1.34 0.90 0.90 48 0.21 0.33 1.50 1.53 0.91 0.92 72 0.29 0.38 1.75 1.76 0.91 0.91 96 0.43 2.09 0.88 120 0.54 2.42 0.83 144 0.56 2.73 0.81 168 0.58 3.03 0.76 192 0.66 3.24 0.73 216 0.56 3.49 0.68 240 0.53 3.82 0.64 264 0.29 4.02 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -1.10 3.85 3.83 48 -1.04 -1.21 4.24 4.27 72 -1.09 -1.31 4.61 4.65 96 -1.32 5.22 120 -1.33 5.84 144 -1.34 6.47 168 -1.24 7.09 192 -1.09 7.71 216 -1.16 8.27 240 -1.37 8.73 264 -1.34 8.98 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 137 12 UTC = 137 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.64 4.67 4.60 48 -1.00 -0.79 5.55 5.48 72 -0.99 -0.85 6.57 6.46 96 -0.90 7.63 120 -0.93 9.13 144 -0.88 10.38 168 -0.79 11.80 192 -0.92 12.75 216 -1.17 13.89 240 -1.40 15.03 264 -1.65 15.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.05 -0.74 5.08 5.06 48 -1.35 -1.08 6.22 6.28 72 -1.44 -1.10 7.54 7.42 96 -1.16 9.20 120 -1.02 11.18 144 -0.84 13.19 168 -0.87 14.93 192 -0.97 16.69 216 -1.19 18.82 240 -1.04 20.33 264 -1.23 21.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.92 -3.55 7.89 7.44 0.96 0.97 48 -6.89 -4.47 11.56 10.53 0.96 0.97 72 -8.44 -5.01 15.95 15.94 0.96 0.95 96 -6.50 22.25 0.94 120 -4.89 27.81 0.89 144 -3.24 33.43 0.84 168 -3.57 44.07 0.71 192 -4.19 47.87 0.68 216 0.49 51.81 0.62 240 4.19 54.80 0.69 264 6.69 56.12 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.67 -6.21 11.02 11.33 0.96 0.97 48 -7.71 -6.32 14.75 15.08 0.96 0.98 72 -8.25 -4.40 18.94 22.75 0.95 0.95 96 -6.19 31.85 0.92 120 -4.71 41.88 0.87 144 -3.77 54.00 0.78 168 -2.69 63.92 0.69 192 -3.79 70.36 0.65 216 -0.91 70.92 0.67 240 2.29 72.51 0.70 264 4.15 83.79 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.55 -6.63 14.40 15.13 0.97 0.97 48 -10.91 -8.55 21.51 22.37 0.97 0.97 72 -12.06 -6.00 29.57 32.96 0.95 0.96 96 -8.07 47.63 0.92 120 -8.28 61.45 0.85 144 -5.64 78.41 0.77 168 -0.14 88.05 0.69 192 -3.95 102.51 0.63 216 -4.74 104.13 0.66 240 -2.17 108.16 0.62 264 0.12 123.58 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 -0.30 1.35 1.26 0.83 0.82 48 0.15 -0.21 1.54 1.43 0.88 0.87 72 0.28 0.01 1.81 1.64 0.90 0.88 96 0.07 2.06 0.88 120 0.01 2.56 0.78 144 0.10 2.80 0.72 168 0.15 3.07 0.77 192 0.25 3.76 0.59 216 0.24 4.12 0.46 240 0.13 4.01 0.52 264 0.12 4.57 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.10 0.90 0.87 0.84 0.86 48 -0.07 0.10 1.08 0.97 0.85 0.92 72 -0.04 0.13 1.25 1.24 0.83 0.88 96 0.11 1.51 0.85 120 0.06 1.70 0.79 144 0.08 2.04 0.77 168 0.21 2.33 0.71 192 0.04 2.52 0.65 216 -0.08 3.00 0.59 240 -0.07 3.05 0.55 264 -0.12 3.32 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.06 0.86 0.89 0.83 0.87 48 -0.03 -0.04 1.05 1.14 0.86 0.87 72 -0.08 -0.08 1.18 1.42 0.87 0.84 96 0.03 1.62 0.82 120 -0.08 1.83 0.77 144 -0.02 2.09 0.67 168 0.01 2.07 0.67 192 0.03 2.49 0.62 216 -0.30 2.72 0.60 240 -0.46 2.82 0.62 264 -0.29 2.90 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.74 4.05 3.81 48 -0.65 -0.73 4.64 4.39 72 -0.65 -0.79 5.42 4.96 96 -1.00 5.43 120 -0.91 5.97 144 -0.92 6.94 168 -0.80 7.58 192 -0.77 8.23 216 -0.95 8.44 240 -0.87 9.03 264 -1.04 8.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.54 4.04 4.15 48 -0.40 -0.51 4.96 4.97 72 -0.26 -0.58 5.90 6.01 96 -0.52 7.21 120 -0.83 8.19 144 -0.74 9.68 168 -0.71 11.37 192 -1.37 11.29 216 -1.39 11.61 240 -0.96 12.85 264 -1.27 12.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.43 -1.27 5.32 6.19 48 -0.38 -1.11 6.74 7.91 72 -0.34 -1.44 8.67 9.53 96 -1.51 12.06 120 -1.86 13.50 144 -1.79 16.38 168 -1.58 18.69 192 -3.36 18.82 216 -3.09 20.19 240 -2.63 21.04 264 -3.20 20.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.15 -3.65 8.83 10.25 0.72 0.68 48 -3.86 -3.25 9.28 10.51 0.78 0.78 72 -4.07 -3.21 10.00 10.90 0.81 0.80 96 -3.37 11.35 0.80 120 -3.67 12.00 0.75 144 -3.34 12.66 0.70 168 -3.50 13.45 0.68 192 -3.43 14.22 0.67 216 -3.40 15.14 0.65 240 -3.41 15.95 0.61 264 -3.83 16.89 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 75 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.42 -9.66 14.87 14.87 0.63 0.58 48 -12.26 -10.36 15.82 15.70 0.74 0.69 72 -13.23 -11.22 16.92 16.59 0.77 0.75 96 -12.05 17.43 0.76 120 -12.81 18.32 0.75 144 -12.86 18.68 0.75 168 -13.14 19.43 0.73 192 -13.20 20.22 0.70 216 -13.40 21.16 0.67 240 -14.02 22.34 0.63 264 -14.75 23.73 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.28 -9.19 17.71 17.43 0.67 0.66 48 -12.49 -10.05 19.06 18.68 0.79 0.78 72 -13.97 -11.68 20.59 20.61 0.81 0.80 96 -13.93 23.03 0.79 120 -15.86 25.39 0.79 144 -16.42 26.73 0.78 168 -17.28 28.69 0.76 192 -17.60 30.92 0.72 216 -17.82 32.57 0.69 240 -18.43 33.83 0.69 264 -19.43 35.42 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.27 1.05 1.07 0.49 0.55 48 -0.27 -0.26 1.06 1.08 0.62 0.64 72 -0.25 -0.24 1.10 1.12 0.66 0.68 96 -0.24 1.15 0.69 120 -0.23 1.21 0.66 144 -0.22 1.29 0.61 168 -0.21 1.34 0.60 192 -0.22 1.40 0.57 216 -0.23 1.52 0.49 240 -0.27 1.54 0.47 264 -0.31 1.64 0.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.12 0.90 0.94 0.58 0.60 48 -0.08 -0.17 0.95 0.99 0.66 0.68 72 -0.11 -0.23 1.00 1.07 0.69 0.69 96 -0.31 1.17 0.69 120 -0.35 1.24 0.67 144 -0.37 1.30 0.65 168 -0.37 1.35 0.64 192 -0.38 1.40 0.63 216 -0.36 1.46 0.63 240 -0.40 1.50 0.59 264 -0.40 1.56 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.19 0.16 0.76 0.77 0.64 0.66 48 0.21 0.18 0.86 0.88 0.70 0.69 72 0.20 0.15 0.93 0.98 0.69 0.68 96 0.08 1.05 0.66 120 0.00 1.14 0.63 144 -0.06 1.20 0.62 168 -0.11 1.23 0.61 192 -0.12 1.28 0.59 216 -0.13 1.32 0.60 240 -0.13 1.39 0.57 264 -0.15 1.43 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 73 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.63 3.39 3.39 48 -0.67 -0.80 3.64 3.65 72 -0.75 -0.86 3.93 3.88 96 -0.95 4.12 120 -0.99 4.40 144 -1.02 4.74 168 -0.96 5.04 192 -0.85 5.28 216 -0.78 5.54 240 -0.77 5.68 264 -0.61 5.96 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.71 3.99 4.03 48 -1.00 -0.86 4.46 4.54 72 -1.20 -1.15 4.82 4.95 96 -1.44 5.32 120 -1.55 5.74 144 -1.58 6.06 168 -1.66 6.54 192 -1.67 7.00 216 -1.60 7.60 240 -1.57 7.97 264 -1.54 8.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -1.01 5.03 5.06 48 -0.99 -1.11 5.98 6.18 72 -1.03 -1.26 6.57 6.96 96 -1.33 7.67 120 -1.37 8.41 144 -1.44 9.19 168 -1.41 9.91 192 -1.40 10.42 216 -1.44 11.18 240 -1.26 11.74 264 -1.30 12.16 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 63 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.04 -2.30 10.89 10.93 0.98 0.98 48 -1.24 -2.78 14.96 15.16 0.98 0.98 72 -1.50 -3.17 20.28 20.58 0.97 0.97 96 -3.51 27.12 0.95 120 -3.61 35.25 0.92 144 -2.71 44.39 0.89 168 -1.92 53.44 0.85 192 -1.67 62.89 0.81 216 -2.72 70.92 0.76 240 -1.39 78.39 0.72 264 -0.78 85.50 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 383 12 UTC = 376 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.47 -4.38 13.48 13.72 0.99 0.99 48 -3.94 -5.32 19.81 20.10 0.98 0.98 72 -4.57 -6.04 28.36 28.48 0.97 0.97 96 -6.51 39.13 0.96 120 -6.84 50.71 0.93 144 -5.37 63.91 0.89 168 -3.90 77.94 0.85 192 -1.94 90.01 0.82 216 -0.83 102.43 0.77 240 0.47 114.79 0.73 264 1.46 125.13 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.88 -5.73 18.48 18.85 0.98 0.98 48 -5.91 -7.57 26.33 26.50 0.98 0.98 72 -7.09 -8.92 37.44 37.61 0.98 0.98 96 -9.98 51.88 0.96 120 -10.23 66.99 0.93 144 -7.85 84.58 0.90 168 -5.91 103.24 0.86 192 -1.18 118.91 0.83 216 2.43 138.93 0.78 240 4.09 158.62 0.73 264 5.13 169.78 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 396 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 -0.23 1.60 1.59 0.91 0.91 48 -0.18 -0.20 1.80 1.78 0.94 0.94 72 -0.16 -0.19 2.09 2.05 0.94 0.94 96 -0.16 2.48 0.92 120 -0.14 3.00 0.89 144 -0.09 3.57 0.85 168 -0.01 4.21 0.80 192 0.08 4.64 0.77 216 0.16 5.14 0.72 240 0.17 5.63 0.67 264 0.27 5.85 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 411 12 UTC = 403 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.13 1.00 1.01 0.96 0.95 48 -0.16 -0.17 1.29 1.28 0.96 0.96 72 -0.20 -0.20 1.69 1.68 0.95 0.95 96 -0.24 2.14 0.92 120 -0.28 2.59 0.89 144 -0.26 3.14 0.85 168 -0.24 3.67 0.80 192 -0.11 4.12 0.76 216 0.03 4.62 0.70 240 0.03 5.05 0.65 264 0.07 5.24 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 441 12 UTC = 435 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.29 1.26 1.28 0.93 0.92 48 0.30 0.30 1.56 1.57 0.92 0.92 72 0.33 0.34 1.91 1.91 0.91 0.90 96 0.37 2.29 0.87 120 0.42 2.69 0.82 144 0.46 3.02 0.79 168 0.51 3.38 0.74 192 0.51 3.62 0.71 216 0.53 3.93 0.66 240 0.56 4.16 0.64 264 0.50 4.28 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 436 12 UTC = 428 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.97 4.04 4.09 48 -0.98 -1.08 4.62 4.69 72 -1.07 -1.17 5.35 5.44 96 -1.20 6.28 120 -1.25 7.28 144 -1.26 8.26 168 -1.17 9.14 192 -1.05 9.89 216 -1.05 10.59 240 -1.19 10.95 264 -1.08 11.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.69 4.57 4.60 48 -0.85 -0.84 5.82 5.86 72 -0.93 -0.93 7.33 7.30 96 -0.99 8.95 120 -0.99 10.67 144 -1.06 12.27 168 -0.98 13.98 192 -0.93 15.27 216 -1.11 16.53 240 -1.18 17.34 264 -1.29 18.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 428 12 UTC = 422 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.75 5.25 5.32 48 -1.03 -1.00 6.90 7.01 72 -1.19 -1.07 8.93 8.86 96 -1.13 11.22 120 -1.02 13.73 144 -0.95 16.22 168 -0.87 18.79 192 -0.76 20.77 216 -0.97 22.86 240 -0.82 24.55 264 -1.12 25.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 424 12 UTC = 419 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.79 -2.70 9.20 9.65 0.96 0.97 48 -3.49 -2.02 12.59 12.34 0.96 0.97 72 -3.78 -1.66 16.99 16.49 0.94 0.95 96 -1.83 21.71 0.93 120 -2.09 27.96 0.90 144 -0.75 32.69 0.84 168 -0.73 38.78 0.74 192 -1.85 43.55 0.70 216 -0.09 49.62 0.61 240 -0.37 54.28 0.54 264 1.98 55.83 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.19 -6.57 11.85 12.52 0.96 0.96 48 -5.95 -5.09 15.25 15.08 0.96 0.97 72 -5.36 -3.14 19.36 20.28 0.95 0.96 96 -3.01 27.82 0.93 120 -2.82 37.01 0.88 144 -1.24 45.57 0.82 168 -1.03 54.89 0.73 192 -3.06 63.66 0.66 216 -1.60 70.92 0.59 240 -3.49 74.44 0.56 264 -0.83 79.15 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.44 -9.62 16.75 17.01 0.96 0.97 48 -9.92 -9.74 22.49 21.65 0.97 0.97 72 -9.83 -7.60 29.43 29.21 0.95 0.96 96 -7.65 42.43 0.92 120 -7.80 55.03 0.87 144 -5.48 66.13 0.81 168 -3.66 79.40 0.73 192 -7.28 94.04 0.67 216 -7.38 102.24 0.62 240 -9.02 106.71 0.57 264 -4.99 112.96 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.30 -0.41 1.68 1.52 0.85 0.85 48 -0.22 -0.28 1.84 1.66 0.89 0.88 72 -0.10 -0.15 2.07 1.90 0.90 0.88 96 -0.08 2.24 0.83 120 -0.01 2.53 0.79 144 0.06 2.92 0.74 168 0.11 3.22 0.70 192 0.13 3.62 0.61 216 0.13 3.97 0.59 240 0.04 3.96 0.58 264 0.05 4.20 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.03 0.95 0.88 0.86 0.88 48 -0.01 0.02 1.13 1.02 0.88 0.91 72 0.00 0.05 1.34 1.32 0.85 0.88 96 0.06 1.65 0.84 120 0.09 1.88 0.79 144 0.12 2.13 0.75 168 0.18 2.46 0.70 192 0.06 2.80 0.64 216 0.08 3.04 0.60 240 0.02 3.11 0.55 264 0.01 3.22 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.10 0.99 0.98 0.86 0.86 48 -0.15 -0.21 1.24 1.26 0.88 0.87 72 -0.19 -0.22 1.44 1.58 0.86 0.85 96 -0.24 1.90 0.80 120 -0.32 2.19 0.76 144 -0.35 2.44 0.70 168 -0.38 2.62 0.66 192 -0.23 2.87 0.63 216 -0.43 3.00 0.64 240 -0.27 3.18 0.58 264 -0.20 3.28 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 49 12 UTC = 41 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.89 4.31 4.08 48 -0.78 -0.92 4.80 4.57 72 -0.81 -0.93 5.46 5.16 96 -1.12 5.71 120 -1.08 6.37 144 -1.18 7.11 168 -1.25 7.53 192 -1.07 8.30 216 -1.09 8.67 240 -0.79 9.08 264 -0.86 9.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.69 4.11 4.19 48 -0.70 -0.75 4.97 4.90 72 -0.71 -1.02 5.87 5.88 96 -1.06 7.07 120 -1.23 7.70 144 -1.13 9.07 168 -1.06 10.38 192 -1.16 11.09 216 -1.26 11.63 240 -1.01 12.30 264 -1.02 12.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 48 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JANUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.90 5.50 5.66 48 -0.91 -1.20 6.86 7.02 72 -1.22 -1.58 8.66 8.59 96 -1.93 10.74 120 -2.18 12.33 144 -2.14 14.43 168 -2.23 16.19 192 -2.91 17.45 216 -3.01 18.57 240 -2.94 19.82 264 -3.04 20.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 40 ---------------------------------------------------------