VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY FEBRUARY 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 0.97 0.99 1.00 0.99 15.3 15.7 48 0.00 0.00 1.71 1.72 0.98 0.98 23.7 24.2 72 -0.05 -0.07 2.63 2.63 0.96 0.96 31.8 32.4 96 -0.15 3.73 0.92 40.7 120 -0.22 4.96 0.86 48.3 144 -0.31 6.18 0.78 55.3 168 -0.39 7.37 0.68 61.9 192 -0.48 8.52 0.58 67.6 216 -0.51 9.19 0.52 70.9 240 -0.54 9.88 0.44 73.8 264 -0.60 10.66 0.34 76.4 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -1.09 7.41 7.69 1.00 1.00 9.1 9.2 48 -1.62 -1.88 15.16 15.36 0.99 0.99 16.6 16.5 72 -2.48 -2.96 25.18 25.16 0.97 0.97 24.2 24.1 96 -4.01 36.96 0.94 31.6 120 -4.98 49.73 0.90 38.3 144 -5.67 62.44 0.84 44.5 168 -6.31 76.39 0.75 50.7 192 -6.96 89.27 0.66 55.8 216 -7.14 97.62 0.60 59.0 240 -7.72 105.02 0.54 61.7 264 -8.21 112.43 0.47 64.4 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.93 -0.96 9.58 9.75 1.00 1.00 7.3 7.3 48 -2.62 -2.67 19.83 20.03 0.99 0.99 12.5 12.5 72 -4.49 -4.77 33.23 32.74 0.98 0.98 18.5 18.3 96 -6.63 47.91 0.95 24.4 120 -8.36 64.36 0.91 30.5 144 -9.50 81.68 0.86 36.2 168 -10.45 100.71 0.78 42.0 192 -10.71 117.98 0.69 46.9 216 -10.70 130.22 0.62 50.5 240 -11.51 142.10 0.56 53.7 264 -12.38 151.91 0.49 56.3 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.52 0.52 0.99 0.99 48 -0.06 -0.06 0.96 0.96 0.98 0.98 72 -0.11 -0.12 1.46 1.45 0.95 0.95 96 -0.17 1.97 0.90 120 -0.20 2.47 0.85 144 -0.22 2.98 0.77 168 -0.23 3.52 0.68 192 -0.23 4.01 0.58 216 -0.24 4.34 0.51 240 -0.26 4.64 0.45 264 -0.26 4.91 0.38 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 0.02 0.67 0.67 0.99 0.99 48 -0.04 -0.01 1.09 1.08 0.96 0.96 72 -0.06 -0.03 1.53 1.52 0.93 0.93 96 -0.03 1.93 0.88 120 -0.04 2.36 0.82 144 -0.02 2.71 0.76 168 0.00 3.08 0.69 192 0.03 3.42 0.62 216 0.03 3.66 0.57 240 0.04 3.87 0.52 264 0.04 4.11 0.45 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.06 2.33 2.36 48 -0.17 -0.15 4.18 4.17 72 -0.23 -0.22 6.04 6.01 96 -0.26 7.84 120 -0.30 9.65 144 -0.31 11.35 168 -0.36 13.04 192 -0.36 14.51 216 -0.40 15.51 240 -0.43 16.34 264 -0.53 17.19 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.14 3.31 3.30 48 -0.28 -0.28 5.39 5.39 72 -0.33 -0.32 7.77 7.63 96 -0.31 10.07 120 -0.37 12.73 144 -0.36 15.21 168 -0.42 17.75 192 -0.50 20.01 216 -0.60 21.81 240 -0.67 23.56 264 -0.86 24.87 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.15 3.30 3.19 0.98 0.98 25.9 25.7 48 -0.40 -0.25 5.22 4.76 0.96 0.96 34.4 33.7 72 -0.35 -0.17 6.49 6.12 0.94 0.94 39.6 38.9 96 -0.23 7.05 0.92 42.3 120 -0.23 7.78 0.90 45.5 144 -0.33 8.71 0.88 48.0 168 -0.49 9.48 0.86 50.5 192 -0.44 10.12 0.84 52.7 216 -0.79 10.88 0.82 54.4 240 -1.20 11.47 0.81 56.3 264 -1.52 12.12 0.79 58.0 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.14 4.99 4.89 0.99 0.99 20.1 20.0 48 -1.57 -1.49 8.58 8.56 0.96 0.96 28.4 28.2 72 -2.62 -2.76 11.52 11.51 0.93 0.93 33.9 33.9 96 -3.57 13.88 0.89 38.3 120 -4.19 16.16 0.85 42.3 144 -4.55 18.36 0.80 46.2 168 -4.73 20.74 0.74 49.8 192 -4.55 22.82 0.67 53.6 216 -4.52 24.97 0.60 56.9 240 -4.66 26.92 0.53 60.0 264 -5.03 28.68 0.46 62.4 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.03 0.46 0.47 0.96 0.96 48 0.03 0.02 0.73 0.75 0.90 0.90 72 0.07 0.05 0.92 0.91 0.85 0.86 96 0.08 1.04 0.81 120 0.11 1.14 0.78 144 0.13 1.26 0.73 168 0.14 1.37 0.68 192 0.16 1.48 0.64 216 0.17 1.58 0.59 240 0.19 1.67 0.54 264 0.21 1.75 0.48 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.42 0.41 0.95 0.96 48 -0.03 -0.04 0.62 0.61 0.90 0.90 72 -0.05 -0.08 0.76 0.76 0.85 0.85 96 -0.11 0.84 0.81 120 -0.13 0.92 0.78 144 -0.14 0.99 0.75 168 -0.14 1.04 0.73 192 -0.13 1.10 0.69 216 -0.12 1.15 0.67 240 -0.14 1.20 0.64 264 -0.16 1.25 0.61 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.14 1.54 1.52 48 -0.24 -0.27 2.28 2.26 72 -0.30 -0.34 2.77 2.75 96 -0.36 3.13 120 -0.39 3.50 144 -0.41 3.84 168 -0.43 4.12 192 -0.42 4.38 216 -0.42 4.60 240 -0.43 4.85 264 -0.46 5.03 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.43 3.40 3.36 48 -0.75 -0.69 5.15 5.12 72 -0.97 -0.96 6.33 6.31 96 -1.16 7.23 120 -1.32 8.10 144 -1.40 8.92 168 -1.46 9.69 192 -1.52 10.43 216 -1.61 10.97 240 -1.76 11.52 264 -1.98 12.00 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.01 0.86 0.85 1.00 1.00 12.5 12.4 48 -0.03 -0.03 1.68 1.63 0.98 0.98 21.4 21.2 72 -0.02 -0.01 2.61 2.55 0.95 0.95 29.6 29.4 96 0.04 3.61 0.91 37.4 120 0.08 4.57 0.85 43.9 144 0.17 5.62 0.77 49.9 168 0.27 6.78 0.66 55.4 192 0.35 7.66 0.57 59.7 216 0.43 8.31 0.48 62.8 240 0.51 8.97 0.40 65.6 264 0.60 9.48 0.34 66.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.83 1.77 7.62 7.52 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.6 48 2.81 2.81 15.29 14.89 0.99 0.99 17.4 17.3 72 3.59 3.68 24.83 24.47 0.97 0.97 25.2 25.1 96 4.39 35.79 0.93 32.7 120 5.05 47.03 0.88 39.3 144 6.11 59.54 0.80 45.7 168 6.92 73.76 0.69 52.0 192 7.35 85.13 0.59 56.6 216 7.62 93.78 0.50 59.7 240 8.38 102.34 0.41 63.1 264 8.85 105.41 0.38 64.0 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.41 0.35 9.98 9.84 1.00 1.00 8.6 8.5 48 -0.13 -0.17 20.22 19.80 0.99 0.99 15.3 15.1 72 -0.55 -0.59 33.12 32.70 0.97 0.97 22.3 22.1 96 -0.68 48.72 0.93 29.4 120 -0.45 64.67 0.88 35.9 144 0.28 82.99 0.80 42.5 168 0.93 102.05 0.69 48.8 192 0.65 119.39 0.58 53.8 216 0.21 134.09 0.48 57.1 240 0.69 145.46 0.39 60.0 264 0.42 147.48 0.37 60.6 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.47 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 -0.01 -0.01 0.89 0.89 0.97 0.97 72 -0.02 -0.03 1.34 1.32 0.93 0.93 96 -0.05 1.79 0.86 120 -0.05 2.24 0.79 144 -0.05 2.67 0.70 168 -0.07 3.12 0.58 192 -0.11 3.48 0.47 216 -0.12 3.85 0.37 240 -0.11 4.13 0.29 264 -0.14 4.18 0.28 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.11 0.61 0.61 0.98 0.98 48 -0.21 -0.22 1.10 1.09 0.95 0.95 72 -0.28 -0.29 1.58 1.59 0.89 0.89 96 -0.35 2.09 0.81 120 -0.38 2.53 0.71 144 -0.39 2.92 0.61 168 -0.40 3.31 0.49 192 -0.43 3.60 0.40 216 -0.48 3.78 0.34 240 -0.52 4.04 0.26 264 -0.56 4.12 0.24 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.16 2.09 2.08 48 -0.25 -0.26 3.79 3.76 72 -0.35 -0.35 5.50 5.47 96 -0.42 7.18 120 -0.49 8.75 144 -0.57 10.28 168 -0.61 11.90 192 -0.66 13.14 216 -0.64 14.02 240 -0.62 14.91 264 -0.60 15.16 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.23 -0.21 3.16 3.13 48 -0.39 -0.36 5.57 5.49 72 -0.48 -0.46 8.12 8.00 96 -0.56 10.66 120 -0.62 13.25 144 -0.74 15.99 168 -0.82 18.44 192 -0.83 20.59 216 -0.79 22.04 240 -0.72 23.19 264 -0.70 23.45 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.75 -1.93 8.56 9.01 0.99 0.99 48 -1.41 -1.54 12.59 13.33 0.99 0.99 72 0.01 -0.50 18.35 18.47 0.98 0.98 96 -1.08 25.55 0.95 120 -3.71 33.80 0.92 144 -4.80 42.15 0.86 168 -3.02 49.66 0.78 192 -1.92 55.94 0.73 216 -6.78 59.47 0.75 240 -9.00 61.99 0.75 264 -9.72 70.41 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.66 -6.20 11.51 12.39 0.99 0.99 48 -6.15 -6.42 17.94 19.09 0.99 0.99 72 -5.32 -5.74 27.43 27.70 0.98 0.98 96 -6.74 38.95 0.97 120 -9.30 50.37 0.95 144 -8.97 62.49 0.90 168 -6.14 79.46 0.81 192 -2.25 88.04 0.79 216 -1.94 94.34 0.80 240 -7.10 97.77 0.80 264 -10.35 106.59 0.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.64 -7.60 15.08 15.96 0.99 0.99 48 -8.35 -9.06 23.47 25.41 0.99 0.99 72 -8.52 -9.49 37.04 37.29 0.98 0.98 96 -11.84 50.56 0.98 120 -13.37 65.79 0.96 144 -13.05 83.94 0.93 168 -9.48 106.55 0.85 192 -3.87 121.90 0.82 216 -0.53 131.79 0.82 240 -9.03 140.71 0.80 264 -14.83 147.44 0.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.71 1.73 1.92 0.95 0.95 48 -0.58 -0.66 1.91 2.08 0.96 0.96 72 -0.51 -0.63 2.22 2.44 0.95 0.95 96 -0.56 3.04 0.93 120 -0.51 3.57 0.90 144 -0.40 4.23 0.86 168 -0.31 5.11 0.77 192 -0.06 5.64 0.69 216 0.40 6.02 0.70 240 0.33 6.14 0.74 264 0.21 6.37 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 81 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.09 1.03 1.05 0.96 0.96 48 -0.15 -0.17 1.37 1.44 0.97 0.96 72 -0.25 -0.26 1.91 1.89 0.95 0.95 96 -0.37 2.42 0.93 120 -0.33 2.84 0.91 144 -0.31 3.39 0.89 168 -0.30 4.13 0.80 192 -0.16 4.65 0.73 216 0.09 4.87 0.74 240 -0.06 5.25 0.72 264 -0.24 5.42 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.36 0.27 1.31 1.30 0.94 0.95 48 0.39 0.36 1.64 1.71 0.94 0.93 72 0.46 0.38 2.13 2.15 0.92 0.91 96 0.38 2.59 0.87 120 0.36 3.18 0.80 144 0.47 3.49 0.78 168 0.55 4.03 0.72 192 0.68 4.32 0.68 216 0.62 4.46 0.72 240 0.58 4.70 0.70 264 0.51 4.91 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.99 4.13 4.36 48 -0.82 -1.10 4.67 4.97 72 -0.92 -1.23 5.53 5.78 96 -1.37 6.86 120 -1.36 8.20 144 -1.43 9.21 168 -1.50 10.04 192 -1.39 11.04 216 -1.13 11.29 240 -1.30 12.03 264 -1.57 12.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.81 4.65 4.80 48 -1.12 -0.97 5.95 6.09 72 -1.22 -1.11 7.89 7.86 96 -1.29 9.56 120 -1.15 11.28 144 -1.30 13.08 168 -1.67 14.89 192 -2.00 16.23 216 -1.90 16.96 240 -2.08 17.65 264 -2.43 18.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -0.98 5.84 5.97 48 -1.22 -1.18 7.42 7.84 72 -1.23 -1.45 9.98 10.15 96 -1.43 12.16 120 -1.29 14.91 144 -1.49 17.84 168 -1.50 20.77 192 -1.48 22.99 216 -1.73 24.55 240 -2.63 25.67 264 -3.28 27.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 86 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.41 -5.42 10.29 10.54 0.98 0.98 48 -5.59 -8.16 15.09 15.59 0.98 0.98 72 -7.21 -11.93 21.12 22.66 0.97 0.97 96 -16.49 32.24 0.95 120 -12.28 38.78 0.92 144 -10.02 46.97 0.87 168 -10.09 58.00 0.83 192 -9.82 80.10 0.75 216 -12.80 94.38 0.62 240 -15.41 108.23 0.57 264 -7.56 107.74 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.57 -10.56 15.43 15.08 0.99 0.99 48 -13.52 -15.04 22.55 22.77 0.98 0.98 72 -14.83 -18.88 31.02 32.31 0.97 0.97 96 -22.84 47.87 0.95 120 -19.00 61.00 0.93 144 -14.88 70.11 0.90 168 -15.77 85.45 0.84 192 -14.87 111.97 0.76 216 -11.42 138.79 0.62 240 -8.88 155.23 0.55 264 -9.60 154.68 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 59 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -13.37 -14.54 20.08 20.23 0.99 0.99 48 -19.30 -21.80 31.13 31.52 0.98 0.99 72 -22.39 -27.41 43.89 45.31 0.98 0.98 96 -33.79 68.23 0.95 120 -31.06 85.43 0.93 144 -25.74 101.30 0.89 168 -29.01 123.97 0.82 192 -26.01 157.04 0.73 216 -12.16 196.91 0.62 240 0.16 215.49 0.56 264 -9.12 223.11 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.29 1.38 1.40 0.90 0.89 48 -0.58 -0.40 1.58 1.56 0.91 0.91 72 -0.53 -0.42 1.90 1.85 0.89 0.89 96 -0.33 2.31 0.86 120 -0.41 2.79 0.82 144 -0.38 3.41 0.76 168 -0.37 3.66 0.70 192 -0.43 3.87 0.69 216 0.03 4.42 0.63 240 0.34 4.85 0.56 264 0.01 5.04 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.21 -0.31 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 48 -0.31 -0.40 1.30 1.30 0.96 0.95 72 -0.30 -0.38 1.78 1.76 0.93 0.93 96 -0.45 2.49 0.88 120 -0.38 3.23 0.83 144 -0.29 3.55 0.81 168 -0.39 4.00 0.72 192 -0.35 4.73 0.64 216 0.14 5.57 0.53 240 0.47 5.90 0.53 264 -0.14 6.21 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.37 0.37 1.20 1.19 0.93 0.91 48 0.13 0.16 1.42 1.42 0.91 0.90 72 -0.08 -0.11 1.75 1.73 0.88 0.90 96 -0.23 2.28 0.84 120 -0.34 2.76 0.79 144 -0.22 2.97 0.75 168 -0.35 3.24 0.69 192 -0.39 3.67 0.62 216 0.00 3.93 0.59 240 0.51 3.94 0.63 264 0.57 4.50 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.64 4.40 4.42 48 -0.86 -0.68 5.05 5.05 72 -0.88 -0.51 5.96 5.95 96 -0.35 7.13 120 -0.52 8.43 144 -0.35 9.14 168 -0.53 10.20 192 -0.43 11.91 216 -0.39 12.61 240 0.17 13.64 264 -0.24 13.39 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.52 4.83 4.95 48 -0.59 -0.57 5.98 6.14 72 -0.77 -0.72 7.63 7.64 96 -0.82 9.78 120 -1.38 11.97 144 -1.58 13.79 168 -1.76 16.03 192 -1.74 18.34 216 -1.35 20.62 240 -0.27 22.14 264 -0.40 21.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.90 5.65 5.66 48 -0.76 -0.99 7.36 7.31 72 -1.21 -1.39 9.53 9.53 96 -1.69 13.16 120 -2.03 16.46 144 -2.77 19.50 168 -2.77 23.11 192 -2.81 26.35 216 -2.31 31.36 240 -0.60 33.07 264 0.11 32.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.70 -0.99 12.02 10.82 0.96 0.96 48 2.13 -0.52 14.61 13.64 0.96 0.96 72 1.68 -0.94 17.50 16.70 0.94 0.94 96 -1.15 20.42 0.92 120 -2.24 27.17 0.89 144 -3.51 33.78 0.87 168 -3.14 38.15 0.84 192 -0.31 44.90 0.80 216 -0.34 50.06 0.78 240 -3.42 53.04 0.74 264 -5.27 57.21 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 118 12 UTC = 117 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.91 -1.74 13.28 13.87 0.98 0.98 48 -0.97 -1.27 17.52 18.12 0.98 0.98 72 -1.42 -0.95 24.39 24.48 0.96 0.96 96 -1.44 32.35 0.93 120 -3.38 42.50 0.89 144 -4.35 53.12 0.85 168 -3.19 64.35 0.81 192 -0.17 73.16 0.78 216 -0.64 82.59 0.73 240 -2.58 85.79 0.68 264 -6.93 94.02 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 127 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.06 -3.31 18.71 19.42 0.97 0.97 48 -4.30 -4.18 24.34 25.05 0.98 0.98 72 -6.00 -5.12 34.01 33.94 0.97 0.97 96 -6.10 44.85 0.95 120 -8.22 58.06 0.92 144 -9.55 74.52 0.89 168 -9.79 92.11 0.84 192 -6.75 104.09 0.80 216 -5.34 119.88 0.76 240 -6.16 128.76 0.71 264 -8.10 139.42 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 126 12 UTC = 124 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.57 1.94 1.91 0.90 0.91 48 -0.49 -0.61 2.14 2.11 0.93 0.93 72 -0.47 -0.55 2.37 2.32 0.92 0.93 96 -0.53 2.58 0.91 120 -0.56 3.08 0.87 144 -0.57 3.61 0.84 168 -0.50 4.12 0.79 192 -0.47 4.56 0.74 216 -0.51 5.02 0.70 240 -0.57 5.37 0.65 264 -0.68 5.73 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 137 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.17 1.12 1.15 0.93 0.94 48 -0.24 -0.20 1.33 1.36 0.95 0.95 72 -0.24 -0.20 1.65 1.67 0.94 0.94 96 -0.23 2.04 0.92 120 -0.27 2.46 0.90 144 -0.27 2.95 0.87 168 -0.28 3.49 0.83 192 -0.26 3.91 0.79 216 -0.20 4.47 0.75 240 -0.18 4.83 0.70 264 -0.19 5.18 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 155 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.33 1.32 1.35 0.90 0.89 48 0.13 0.26 1.52 1.54 0.90 0.90 72 0.06 0.23 1.79 1.77 0.89 0.90 96 0.25 2.07 0.88 120 0.29 2.39 0.84 144 0.33 2.69 0.82 168 0.28 3.07 0.78 192 0.25 3.41 0.73 216 0.08 3.79 0.68 240 0.14 4.02 0.66 264 0.36 4.26 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.91 3.86 3.85 48 -0.84 -0.95 4.28 4.27 72 -0.83 -1.05 4.70 4.63 96 -1.11 5.15 120 -1.14 5.82 144 -1.15 6.54 168 -1.25 6.96 192 -1.40 7.46 216 -1.24 8.09 240 -1.27 8.48 264 -1.23 8.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.42 4.62 4.71 48 -0.61 -0.53 5.50 5.58 72 -0.62 -0.66 6.58 6.61 96 -0.66 8.01 120 -0.75 9.35 144 -0.97 10.78 168 -1.03 12.22 192 -1.22 13.12 216 -1.18 14.43 240 -0.97 15.05 264 -0.80 15.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.92 -0.58 5.21 5.11 48 -1.16 -0.96 6.29 6.23 72 -1.38 -1.22 7.82 7.65 96 -1.38 9.43 120 -1.59 11.50 144 -1.81 13.64 168 -1.96 16.01 192 -2.02 17.93 216 -1.87 20.16 240 -1.42 21.75 264 -1.12 23.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 148 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.69 -3.81 6.54 7.15 0.97 0.98 48 -4.93 -4.29 9.64 9.96 0.97 0.97 72 -5.76 -4.97 12.36 13.05 0.96 0.97 96 -5.53 18.16 0.87 120 -6.40 23.44 0.85 144 -6.44 26.54 0.88 168 -8.77 35.24 0.84 192 -4.44 38.95 0.76 216 -2.26 46.33 0.73 240 0.57 46.88 0.66 264 0.80 47.14 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.78 -9.52 10.55 12.67 0.98 0.98 48 -8.20 -9.40 12.49 14.91 0.98 0.99 72 -8.35 -10.09 15.77 19.15 0.97 0.98 96 -12.01 26.15 0.95 120 -12.86 29.64 0.92 144 -9.40 34.50 0.93 168 -16.12 54.44 0.88 192 -12.09 59.41 0.80 216 -13.97 70.59 0.75 240 -8.06 66.43 0.73 264 -7.26 65.59 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.21 -9.96 11.26 15.09 0.99 0.96 48 -8.17 -11.69 16.05 20.91 0.98 0.98 72 -10.94 -13.93 23.77 29.40 0.98 0.96 96 -18.80 40.26 0.93 120 -19.83 47.95 0.94 144 -14.10 51.62 0.94 168 -23.92 78.27 0.87 192 -24.95 88.19 0.79 216 -32.69 102.80 0.74 240 -25.27 93.01 0.76 264 -24.59 104.25 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.18 1.16 1.25 0.85 0.90 48 0.04 -0.05 1.28 1.42 0.92 0.90 72 0.13 0.05 1.45 1.74 0.92 0.87 96 0.09 1.85 0.88 120 -0.09 2.13 0.86 144 -0.01 2.28 0.84 168 -0.11 2.71 0.80 192 -0.16 3.01 0.76 216 -0.21 3.49 0.65 240 0.07 3.71 0.61 264 -0.05 3.65 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 0.02 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.89 48 -0.04 0.05 0.96 1.02 0.91 0.90 72 -0.05 -0.04 1.15 1.21 0.90 0.90 96 -0.18 1.54 0.84 120 -0.21 1.92 0.82 144 -0.01 1.88 0.85 168 -0.33 2.48 0.76 192 -0.40 2.65 0.71 216 -0.62 3.08 0.65 240 -0.45 2.71 0.67 264 -0.47 2.77 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.18 0.85 0.73 0.90 0.93 48 0.06 0.01 1.02 0.92 0.90 0.94 72 -0.11 0.07 1.29 1.24 0.89 0.90 96 0.00 1.64 0.86 120 0.05 1.80 0.83 144 -0.14 2.18 0.80 168 0.11 2.51 0.76 192 -0.32 2.65 0.78 216 -0.52 3.16 0.65 240 -0.54 3.29 0.61 264 -0.70 3.12 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.66 3.81 3.63 48 -0.78 -0.63 4.27 4.14 72 -0.89 -0.76 4.95 4.77 96 -0.72 5.38 120 -0.95 5.89 144 -0.92 6.88 168 -1.05 7.60 192 -1.23 8.10 216 -1.36 8.39 240 -1.38 8.66 264 -1.41 8.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.65 3.76 3.68 48 -0.73 -0.73 4.21 4.50 72 -0.87 -0.82 5.23 5.16 96 -0.90 6.39 120 -1.20 7.55 144 -0.96 8.91 168 -1.25 10.14 192 -1.15 11.09 216 -1.42 12.02 240 -1.95 11.56 264 -1.40 12.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.89 4.85 5.30 48 -0.67 -0.67 6.11 6.69 72 -0.63 -0.78 7.67 7.65 96 -0.52 9.60 120 -0.54 11.65 144 -0.30 12.92 168 -0.37 14.43 192 0.33 16.96 216 -0.68 17.61 240 -0.97 17.51 264 -0.38 18.87 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 30 12 UTC = 13 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.37 -4.21 9.54 10.47 0.75 0.71 48 -3.27 -4.02 9.83 10.63 0.85 0.83 72 -3.23 -4.09 10.31 11.23 0.84 0.84 96 -4.07 11.84 0.82 120 -4.60 12.31 0.79 144 -4.42 12.75 0.76 168 -4.52 13.37 0.73 192 -4.51 13.67 0.73 216 -4.86 14.18 0.73 240 -5.18 14.19 0.75 264 -5.42 14.88 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.82 -9.79 14.73 14.44 0.67 0.67 48 -11.49 -10.41 15.42 15.14 0.80 0.80 72 -12.06 -11.20 16.17 16.01 0.83 0.85 96 -11.50 16.71 0.84 120 -12.39 17.56 0.81 144 -12.40 17.89 0.79 168 -12.78 18.82 0.77 192 -12.90 19.73 0.74 216 -13.40 20.57 0.73 240 -13.35 20.88 0.71 264 -13.37 21.48 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.30 -9.68 17.42 17.32 0.66 0.68 48 -13.01 -10.75 19.13 18.72 0.77 0.79 72 -14.24 -12.04 20.54 20.50 0.81 0.82 96 -12.96 22.17 0.81 120 -14.67 24.17 0.80 144 -15.08 25.45 0.80 168 -16.00 26.97 0.78 192 -16.85 29.25 0.77 216 -17.66 30.89 0.75 240 -17.68 32.03 0.72 264 -18.13 33.18 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.21 1.04 1.06 0.49 0.52 48 -0.23 -0.18 1.07 1.10 0.63 0.65 72 -0.19 -0.15 1.08 1.13 0.68 0.71 96 -0.13 1.15 0.71 120 -0.11 1.20 0.71 144 -0.09 1.26 0.69 168 -0.06 1.35 0.65 192 -0.04 1.45 0.61 216 -0.04 1.51 0.62 240 -0.02 1.61 0.59 264 0.00 1.63 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 75 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.08 0.84 0.86 0.59 0.62 48 -0.11 -0.14 0.89 0.93 0.65 0.70 72 -0.17 -0.21 0.96 1.02 0.70 0.74 96 -0.24 1.10 0.73 120 -0.29 1.15 0.72 144 -0.32 1.21 0.71 168 -0.36 1.28 0.69 192 -0.39 1.36 0.67 216 -0.38 1.45 0.64 240 -0.37 1.48 0.62 264 -0.40 1.50 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.14 0.68 0.71 0.61 0.65 48 0.08 0.13 0.76 0.85 0.68 0.65 72 0.07 0.12 0.82 0.96 0.65 0.63 96 0.08 0.99 0.65 120 0.04 1.05 0.64 144 0.01 1.06 0.64 168 0.00 1.12 0.64 192 -0.03 1.15 0.64 216 -0.05 1.21 0.64 240 -0.06 1.23 0.65 264 -0.09 1.29 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 76 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.56 -0.56 3.58 3.39 48 -0.67 -0.67 3.85 3.65 72 -0.72 -0.71 4.07 3.88 96 -0.80 4.08 120 -0.89 4.28 144 -0.97 4.51 168 -1.08 4.74 192 -1.12 4.87 216 -1.08 5.01 240 -1.02 5.17 264 -1.00 5.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.71 3.80 3.80 48 -0.78 -0.64 4.07 4.09 72 -0.73 -0.59 4.52 4.56 96 -0.57 4.90 120 -0.60 5.22 144 -0.55 5.63 168 -0.54 5.89 192 -0.56 6.09 216 -0.53 6.50 240 -0.48 6.94 264 -0.44 7.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.98 -0.91 4.71 4.95 48 -1.15 -1.02 5.87 6.20 72 -1.23 -1.25 6.77 7.14 96 -1.37 7.81 120 -1.47 8.41 144 -1.51 8.96 168 -1.54 9.55 192 -1.59 10.23 216 -1.66 10.76 240 -1.78 11.30 264 -2.02 11.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 64 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.77 -2.72 10.97 10.78 0.98 0.98 48 -1.80 -3.05 14.66 14.73 0.98 0.98 72 -1.69 -3.42 20.05 20.30 0.97 0.97 96 -4.38 28.10 0.95 120 -4.33 36.59 0.93 144 -4.26 45.95 0.89 168 -3.47 53.11 0.86 192 -2.46 64.11 0.78 216 -2.75 70.83 0.74 240 -4.69 76.39 0.71 264 -4.83 80.89 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 390 12 UTC = 380 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.78 -5.04 13.91 14.13 0.99 0.99 48 -5.72 -6.00 19.66 20.17 0.99 0.99 72 -5.98 -6.67 28.42 28.82 0.98 0.98 96 -7.69 40.86 0.95 120 -8.00 53.94 0.93 144 -7.24 66.93 0.90 168 -5.80 80.32 0.85 192 -3.48 93.81 0.80 216 -1.92 104.57 0.75 240 -2.82 111.06 0.73 264 -4.98 118.27 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 403 12 UTC = 392 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.47 -7.24 18.98 19.29 0.99 0.99 48 -8.81 -9.61 26.61 27.36 0.99 0.99 72 -10.24 -11.63 39.13 39.05 0.98 0.98 96 -13.44 54.65 0.96 120 -14.38 71.93 0.94 144 -13.78 89.61 0.91 168 -12.99 109.32 0.86 192 -10.05 128.63 0.81 216 -5.04 144.59 0.77 240 -3.79 155.49 0.74 264 -6.60 165.36 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 400 12 UTC = 388 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.48 1.71 1.73 0.93 0.93 48 -0.49 -0.52 1.91 1.92 0.95 0.95 72 -0.46 -0.51 2.18 2.20 0.94 0.94 96 -0.47 2.62 0.92 120 -0.45 3.19 0.89 144 -0.40 3.83 0.84 168 -0.35 4.40 0.79 192 -0.25 4.83 0.76 216 -0.11 5.24 0.72 240 -0.06 5.49 0.71 264 -0.15 5.74 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 414 12 UTC = 404 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.17 1.05 1.07 0.96 0.96 48 -0.23 -0.23 1.34 1.37 0.96 0.96 72 -0.26 -0.27 1.78 1.78 0.95 0.95 96 -0.32 2.30 0.92 120 -0.32 2.85 0.89 144 -0.30 3.33 0.87 168 -0.30 3.85 0.81 192 -0.24 4.36 0.76 216 -0.08 4.79 0.72 240 -0.01 5.11 0.69 264 -0.10 5.36 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 443 12 UTC = 433 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.28 1.27 1.27 0.93 0.93 48 0.23 0.23 1.53 1.54 0.93 0.93 72 0.18 0.19 1.89 1.87 0.91 0.92 96 0.16 2.26 0.89 120 0.12 2.75 0.85 144 0.14 3.05 0.83 168 0.10 3.44 0.79 192 0.13 3.75 0.76 216 0.11 4.00 0.74 240 0.20 4.15 0.72 264 0.31 4.41 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 437 12 UTC = 427 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.83 4.04 4.08 48 -0.87 -0.92 4.60 4.62 72 -0.90 -0.99 5.31 5.33 96 -1.01 6.24 120 -1.06 7.32 144 -1.06 8.18 168 -1.17 8.99 192 -1.16 9.92 216 -1.09 10.53 240 -1.07 11.21 264 -1.10 11.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 399 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.62 4.60 4.68 48 -0.76 -0.72 5.69 5.80 72 -0.81 -0.80 7.23 7.26 96 -0.85 8.97 120 -1.01 10.80 144 -1.15 12.55 168 -1.28 14.26 192 -1.46 15.54 216 -1.42 16.69 240 -1.22 17.52 264 -1.28 18.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 427 12 UTC = 417 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.76 -0.69 5.25 5.22 48 -0.95 -0.89 6.72 6.76 72 -1.07 -1.09 8.89 8.74 96 -1.17 11.08 120 -1.36 13.89 144 -1.54 16.59 168 -1.62 19.40 192 -1.72 21.66 216 -1.69 23.79 240 -1.44 25.31 264 -1.42 26.38 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 425 12 UTC = 415 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.09 -3.38 8.97 8.99 0.98 0.98 48 -3.61 -3.35 11.95 11.22 0.97 0.97 72 -3.91 -3.10 14.92 15.01 0.96 0.96 96 -3.21 20.13 0.93 120 -3.24 23.37 0.91 144 -2.00 29.28 0.88 168 -4.05 37.18 0.82 192 -3.57 40.56 0.78 216 -2.48 44.48 0.72 240 -0.58 47.56 0.70 264 1.43 47.33 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.07 -8.76 12.30 13.36 0.98 0.98 48 -7.67 -8.06 14.63 15.47 0.98 0.98 72 -7.49 -7.48 18.39 20.00 0.97 0.97 96 -7.48 27.27 0.94 120 -8.06 33.15 0.92 144 -5.19 42.67 0.88 168 -7.55 56.00 0.81 192 -7.95 62.71 0.77 216 -8.81 66.34 0.75 240 -4.57 68.72 0.73 264 -2.57 72.57 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.84 -10.49 16.32 17.62 0.98 0.98 48 -9.22 -12.09 20.92 22.43 0.98 0.98 72 -11.28 -13.56 27.82 29.57 0.97 0.97 96 -14.58 41.13 0.94 120 -14.78 51.84 0.91 144 -11.23 63.68 0.89 168 -13.26 81.41 0.84 192 -15.39 92.31 0.76 216 -17.65 101.43 0.72 240 -11.70 100.94 0.70 264 -9.64 110.04 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.53 1.59 1.47 0.87 0.88 48 -0.46 -0.47 1.69 1.57 0.92 0.91 72 -0.41 -0.41 1.84 1.78 0.91 0.91 96 -0.34 1.98 0.88 120 -0.37 2.25 0.83 144 -0.33 2.64 0.79 168 -0.28 2.93 0.77 192 -0.29 3.36 0.72 216 -0.31 3.42 0.69 240 -0.21 3.65 0.61 264 -0.28 3.64 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.03 0.91 0.96 0.90 0.90 48 0.04 0.02 1.08 1.12 0.92 0.92 72 0.03 -0.02 1.33 1.36 0.91 0.90 96 -0.06 1.67 0.88 120 -0.11 2.07 0.82 144 0.04 2.40 0.81 168 0.01 2.79 0.74 192 -0.04 3.09 0.68 216 -0.13 3.32 0.64 240 0.02 3.27 0.64 264 0.03 3.45 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.00 0.98 1.03 0.90 0.92 48 -0.06 -0.15 1.26 1.25 0.90 0.92 72 -0.18 -0.19 1.56 1.62 0.88 0.89 96 -0.25 2.04 0.82 120 -0.20 2.32 0.78 144 -0.26 2.63 0.73 168 -0.24 2.94 0.67 192 -0.39 3.20 0.62 216 -0.46 3.31 0.60 240 -0.45 3.48 0.55 264 -0.47 3.46 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 39 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.83 4.30 4.10 48 -0.87 -0.86 4.73 4.50 72 -1.06 -0.88 5.20 5.01 96 -0.88 5.69 120 -1.01 6.38 144 -0.91 7.21 168 -0.89 7.94 192 -0.88 8.35 216 -1.07 8.26 240 -1.04 8.79 264 -0.99 9.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.64 3.90 3.99 48 -0.66 -0.67 4.48 4.76 72 -0.83 -0.82 5.30 5.69 96 -0.99 6.82 120 -1.00 7.94 144 -0.85 9.28 168 -0.94 10.48 192 -0.88 11.01 216 -1.12 11.54 240 -0.99 11.95 264 -0.99 12.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 40 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND FEBRUARY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.90 5.28 5.42 48 -1.01 -1.00 6.51 6.59 72 -1.08 -1.40 8.17 7.95 96 -1.50 10.04 120 -1.72 11.95 144 -1.69 14.36 168 -1.81 15.90 192 -1.57 17.66 216 -1.89 18.59 240 -1.78 19.23 264 -1.53 20.01 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 47 12 UTC = 40 ---------------------------------------------------------