VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MARCH 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.01 0.96 0.94 0.99 0.99 16.6 17.1 48 0.00 -0.05 1.64 1.62 0.98 0.98 25.4 26.2 72 -0.02 -0.09 2.39 2.41 0.96 0.96 33.5 34.6 96 -0.14 3.32 0.93 42.8 120 -0.19 4.51 0.87 51.5 144 -0.19 5.97 0.76 60.3 168 -0.16 7.05 0.67 66.8 192 -0.19 8.02 0.57 72.4 216 -0.17 8.75 0.49 76.4 240 -0.22 9.43 0.40 79.5 264 -0.19 9.98 0.32 81.5 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.66 6.93 6.97 1.00 1.00 9.3 9.3 48 -0.55 -1.08 14.09 14.30 0.99 0.99 17.0 17.1 72 -0.77 -1.41 22.54 23.18 0.98 0.98 24.3 24.8 96 -1.85 33.56 0.95 32.1 120 -2.41 46.54 0.90 39.8 144 -2.66 61.27 0.82 47.1 168 -2.66 73.17 0.75 52.5 192 -3.01 84.99 0.66 57.7 216 -2.99 95.36 0.57 62.1 240 -2.99 103.80 0.49 65.1 264 -2.76 112.06 0.40 67.4 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.95 -1.19 9.39 9.68 1.00 1.00 7.8 7.9 48 -2.28 -2.72 18.34 18.81 0.99 0.99 13.3 13.4 72 -3.47 -4.00 28.98 29.51 0.98 0.98 18.9 19.2 96 -5.17 43.05 0.95 25.3 120 -6.16 59.17 0.91 31.8 144 -6.90 77.93 0.85 38.4 168 -6.81 95.09 0.77 44.1 192 -6.95 111.98 0.68 49.2 216 -7.17 127.76 0.59 54.0 240 -7.11 140.19 0.50 57.2 264 -7.51 151.75 0.42 60.0 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.48 0.49 0.99 0.99 48 -0.02 -0.02 0.89 0.90 0.98 0.98 72 -0.05 -0.05 1.31 1.34 0.95 0.95 96 -0.09 1.81 0.90 120 -0.12 2.32 0.84 144 -0.16 2.90 0.75 168 -0.17 3.40 0.65 192 -0.19 3.83 0.56 216 -0.23 4.26 0.47 240 -0.24 4.54 0.40 264 -0.27 4.81 0.32 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.03 0.67 0.66 0.99 0.99 48 -0.13 -0.10 1.09 1.10 0.96 0.96 72 -0.16 -0.15 1.53 1.55 0.92 0.92 96 -0.16 2.00 0.86 120 -0.17 2.48 0.78 144 -0.17 2.94 0.70 168 -0.12 3.28 0.62 192 -0.05 3.61 0.55 216 0.01 3.88 0.48 240 0.03 4.13 0.42 264 0.03 4.32 0.37 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.06 2.23 2.23 48 -0.15 -0.14 3.99 4.00 72 -0.20 -0.20 5.66 5.75 96 -0.21 7.47 120 -0.20 9.34 144 -0.22 11.15 168 -0.21 12.69 192 -0.21 14.19 216 -0.23 15.46 240 -0.23 16.43 264 -0.29 17.14 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.13 3.36 3.40 48 -0.31 -0.25 5.44 5.49 72 -0.31 -0.27 7.42 7.48 96 -0.19 9.68 120 -0.15 12.16 144 -0.14 14.68 168 -0.14 17.19 192 -0.13 19.61 216 -0.11 21.90 240 -0.14 23.68 264 -0.26 25.08 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.02 3.30 3.22 0.97 0.98 30.2 29.3 48 -0.18 -0.01 4.92 4.72 0.94 0.95 39.7 37.9 72 -0.25 -0.03 5.75 5.56 0.92 0.93 45.1 43.2 96 -0.04 6.09 0.91 47.0 120 -0.22 6.61 0.90 50.0 144 -0.77 7.57 0.87 52.7 168 -1.56 8.63 0.83 55.4 192 -2.04 9.66 0.79 57.8 216 -2.68 10.37 0.77 59.8 240 -2.87 11.37 0.74 61.9 264 -3.19 12.65 0.68 63.6 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.08 4.59 4.63 0.98 0.98 17.6 17.6 48 -1.91 -2.12 7.52 7.52 0.96 0.96 24.5 24.7 72 -3.50 -3.80 10.24 10.36 0.93 0.92 29.5 29.9 96 -5.20 12.67 0.88 33.9 120 -6.59 15.18 0.83 37.2 144 -8.13 17.72 0.78 40.6 168 -9.28 20.22 0.71 44.2 192 -10.25 22.70 0.64 47.8 216 -11.60 25.48 0.55 51.5 240 -12.34 28.08 0.46 54.9 264 -12.84 30.01 0.39 57.7 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.05 0.47 0.48 0.96 0.96 48 -0.01 -0.03 0.77 0.76 0.88 0.90 72 -0.01 -0.03 0.94 0.94 0.82 0.85 96 -0.04 1.06 0.81 120 -0.04 1.16 0.77 144 -0.03 1.25 0.73 168 -0.03 1.35 0.69 192 -0.03 1.46 0.63 216 -0.04 1.56 0.58 240 -0.04 1.62 0.54 264 -0.04 1.68 0.51 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 -0.05 0.42 0.41 0.93 0.93 48 -0.10 -0.13 0.63 0.62 0.83 0.83 72 -0.12 -0.16 0.78 0.77 0.73 0.73 96 -0.19 0.89 0.62 120 -0.22 0.98 0.55 144 -0.25 1.06 0.48 168 -0.27 1.12 0.43 192 -0.28 1.19 0.38 216 -0.31 1.26 0.34 240 -0.32 1.33 0.29 264 -0.33 1.39 0.24 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.21 1.42 1.38 48 -0.32 -0.36 2.08 2.04 72 -0.38 -0.42 2.52 2.48 96 -0.45 2.81 120 -0.49 3.10 144 -0.51 3.40 168 -0.49 3.68 192 -0.50 3.94 216 -0.47 4.19 240 -0.37 4.46 264 -0.24 4.70 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.46 3.15 3.10 48 -0.80 -0.79 4.72 4.68 72 -1.02 -1.01 5.86 5.88 96 -1.17 6.77 120 -1.34 7.49 144 -1.45 8.19 168 -1.52 8.92 192 -1.54 9.74 216 -1.59 10.62 240 -1.67 11.39 264 -1.76 12.00 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.02 0.89 0.88 0.99 0.99 12.4 12.3 48 -0.01 0.02 1.75 1.72 0.98 0.98 21.5 21.4 72 -0.03 0.02 2.76 2.74 0.95 0.95 30.2 29.8 96 0.02 3.88 0.89 38.1 120 0.09 5.12 0.81 46.1 144 0.16 6.31 0.71 52.3 168 0.22 7.45 0.59 57.6 192 0.30 8.37 0.48 61.1 216 0.39 9.09 0.39 63.4 240 0.48 9.74 0.33 65.3 264 0.49 10.23 0.26 67.1 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.26 1.28 7.79 7.79 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.4 48 1.86 1.90 16.20 16.43 0.99 0.99 17.5 17.4 72 2.11 2.25 27.11 27.29 0.96 0.96 25.7 25.6 96 2.38 39.60 0.92 33.5 120 2.41 53.88 0.84 41.6 144 2.44 67.96 0.75 48.3 168 2.39 81.91 0.63 54.1 192 2.83 94.42 0.50 58.3 216 3.38 103.31 0.41 61.2 240 3.92 112.08 0.31 64.1 264 4.12 117.12 0.26 66.2 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.22 0.16 10.52 10.63 1.00 1.00 8.5 8.5 48 -0.57 -0.71 21.96 22.22 0.99 0.99 15.5 15.5 72 -1.78 -1.79 36.69 36.48 0.96 0.96 23.0 22.7 96 -2.92 53.56 0.92 30.2 120 -4.02 74.00 0.85 38.1 144 -5.02 94.93 0.74 44.8 168 -5.75 115.45 0.62 50.8 192 -5.30 132.57 0.50 55.2 216 -4.52 144.47 0.41 57.9 240 -3.39 157.68 0.30 61.2 264 -2.21 165.08 0.24 63.4 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.49 0.99 0.99 48 -0.02 -0.02 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.96 72 -0.04 -0.05 1.44 1.43 0.92 0.92 96 -0.08 1.93 0.85 120 -0.12 2.50 0.75 144 -0.16 3.04 0.63 168 -0.19 3.52 0.50 192 -0.19 3.89 0.39 216 -0.17 4.12 0.32 240 -0.15 4.40 0.23 264 -0.15 4.63 0.16 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.10 0.60 0.60 0.98 0.98 48 -0.19 -0.20 1.09 1.09 0.94 0.94 72 -0.27 -0.28 1.61 1.60 0.87 0.87 96 -0.34 2.09 0.77 120 -0.39 2.57 0.66 144 -0.43 2.94 0.56 168 -0.43 3.29 0.45 192 -0.43 3.52 0.36 216 -0.42 3.74 0.29 240 -0.37 3.91 0.23 264 -0.28 4.07 0.18 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.13 2.15 2.14 48 -0.23 -0.22 4.01 3.99 72 -0.33 -0.33 5.97 5.94 96 -0.39 7.83 120 -0.45 9.85 144 -0.54 11.55 168 -0.57 13.11 192 -0.58 14.40 216 -0.55 15.19 240 -0.51 16.04 264 -0.50 16.71 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.17 3.27 3.27 48 -0.30 -0.33 5.87 5.88 72 -0.43 -0.47 8.73 8.59 96 -0.52 11.54 120 -0.60 14.78 144 -0.63 17.49 168 -0.56 20.17 192 -0.55 22.17 216 -0.61 23.35 240 -0.49 24.94 264 -0.46 26.15 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.61 -2.86 8.75 9.24 0.98 0.98 48 -4.41 -4.63 12.95 13.28 0.97 0.98 72 -4.14 -4.72 17.51 18.04 0.96 0.96 96 -4.69 23.47 0.95 120 -4.50 31.42 0.91 144 -5.76 41.58 0.86 168 -7.25 50.33 0.79 192 -12.15 63.54 0.68 216 -9.46 74.27 0.58 240 -5.65 76.78 0.56 264 -3.98 74.25 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.60 -7.36 12.39 12.91 0.99 0.99 48 -8.48 -9.37 18.99 19.22 0.98 0.98 72 -8.68 -9.41 25.85 25.65 0.97 0.98 96 -9.16 33.93 0.96 120 -7.91 48.04 0.92 144 -10.05 64.63 0.87 168 -12.66 79.41 0.79 192 -16.72 97.28 0.71 216 -13.60 113.97 0.66 240 -8.88 117.90 0.64 264 -11.38 122.89 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.53 -8.36 16.62 16.35 0.99 0.99 48 -11.05 -11.31 24.78 24.94 0.99 0.99 72 -12.40 -12.81 34.64 33.83 0.98 0.98 96 -13.07 46.21 0.96 120 -11.46 64.19 0.93 144 -13.67 88.22 0.87 168 -16.01 110.29 0.80 192 -17.84 132.47 0.72 216 -17.21 156.69 0.67 240 -13.99 167.65 0.62 264 -18.56 175.40 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.61 1.65 1.92 0.94 0.93 48 -0.31 -0.51 1.84 2.07 0.94 0.94 72 -0.20 -0.42 2.12 2.40 0.94 0.94 96 -0.36 2.77 0.93 120 -0.28 3.41 0.90 144 -0.34 4.12 0.83 168 -0.36 4.85 0.76 192 -0.44 5.70 0.64 216 -0.32 6.33 0.62 240 -0.12 6.81 0.60 264 -0.38 7.02 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.06 0.93 0.96 0.96 0.96 48 -0.09 -0.10 1.24 1.25 0.96 0.96 72 -0.15 -0.14 1.58 1.59 0.95 0.94 96 -0.16 2.04 0.92 120 -0.12 2.55 0.88 144 -0.17 3.19 0.81 168 -0.19 3.77 0.75 192 -0.14 4.31 0.67 216 -0.17 5.01 0.61 240 -0.28 5.26 0.58 264 -0.56 5.50 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.24 1.17 1.20 0.94 0.93 48 0.18 0.23 1.46 1.50 0.92 0.92 72 0.17 0.21 1.78 1.84 0.90 0.89 96 0.22 2.17 0.86 120 0.28 2.67 0.81 144 0.28 3.13 0.74 168 0.39 3.38 0.68 192 0.58 3.88 0.59 216 0.47 4.29 0.53 240 0.46 4.39 0.57 264 0.67 4.53 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -1.03 4.14 4.32 48 -0.56 -0.99 4.69 4.99 72 -0.57 -1.01 5.52 5.98 96 -1.02 6.87 120 -1.00 8.14 144 -0.98 9.39 168 -0.81 10.63 192 -0.45 12.12 216 -0.47 13.24 240 -0.87 13.19 264 -1.03 12.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.65 4.70 4.78 48 -0.72 -0.80 5.95 5.97 72 -0.84 -0.90 7.14 7.35 96 -0.97 8.83 120 -1.04 10.71 144 -1.02 12.83 168 -0.86 14.50 192 -0.66 16.97 216 -0.83 18.76 240 -1.34 19.27 264 -1.53 19.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.79 6.22 5.98 48 -0.74 -0.98 7.73 7.75 72 -0.79 -1.07 9.67 9.54 96 -1.00 11.38 120 -1.11 14.33 144 -1.12 17.75 168 -1.00 20.82 192 -0.86 24.03 216 -1.19 26.85 240 -1.68 28.08 264 -2.00 28.83 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.67 -5.99 10.23 10.35 0.97 0.97 48 -6.96 -8.88 12.94 14.96 0.97 0.97 72 -7.28 -10.26 17.31 19.18 0.96 0.96 96 -10.88 25.27 0.94 120 -14.09 31.20 0.91 144 -19.20 42.29 0.87 168 -17.13 52.76 0.83 192 -11.24 59.13 0.78 216 -5.30 63.38 0.78 240 2.03 63.48 0.75 264 4.42 71.47 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -9.25 -8.17 13.87 13.01 0.98 0.98 48 -10.55 -11.96 19.19 20.16 0.98 0.98 72 -10.98 -13.99 27.34 29.67 0.96 0.96 96 -16.46 40.69 0.94 120 -19.63 51.20 0.92 144 -24.92 62.99 0.89 168 -23.74 79.51 0.83 192 -19.38 97.79 0.77 216 -10.32 105.09 0.75 240 1.95 103.60 0.76 264 8.60 114.60 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.29 -9.33 16.55 16.36 0.99 0.98 48 -12.27 -13.56 24.33 24.81 0.98 0.98 72 -14.02 -17.07 37.31 39.16 0.96 0.96 96 -23.78 56.75 0.95 120 -27.50 70.28 0.93 144 -30.42 85.47 0.89 168 -29.25 106.56 0.84 192 -30.36 136.75 0.77 216 -22.62 145.93 0.74 240 -6.63 149.65 0.75 264 4.06 164.41 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.15 1.29 1.21 0.89 0.87 48 -0.46 -0.21 1.45 1.37 0.91 0.89 72 -0.43 -0.23 1.64 1.64 0.90 0.89 96 -0.33 1.94 0.88 120 -0.33 2.25 0.85 144 -0.42 2.56 0.81 168 -0.40 3.06 0.76 192 -0.39 3.71 0.70 216 -0.12 4.28 0.61 240 0.17 4.32 0.61 264 0.48 4.54 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.14 0.87 0.83 0.94 0.95 48 -0.08 -0.17 1.20 1.14 0.93 0.94 72 -0.15 -0.20 1.63 1.66 0.91 0.91 96 -0.40 2.15 0.88 120 -0.42 2.55 0.86 144 -0.35 2.91 0.83 168 -0.37 3.43 0.76 192 -0.66 4.15 0.68 216 -0.52 4.39 0.65 240 -0.23 4.51 0.67 264 0.03 4.84 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.34 0.26 1.15 1.08 0.92 0.93 48 0.32 0.28 1.46 1.42 0.90 0.91 72 0.31 0.22 1.84 1.87 0.86 0.87 96 0.10 2.21 0.83 120 0.06 2.56 0.78 144 0.16 2.80 0.75 168 0.06 3.25 0.66 192 -0.06 3.56 0.62 216 -0.40 3.91 0.58 240 -0.49 4.06 0.59 264 -0.59 4.06 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.47 4.05 3.89 48 -0.70 -0.52 4.51 4.47 72 -0.75 -0.45 5.22 5.21 96 -0.44 6.04 120 -0.36 6.70 144 -0.23 7.74 168 -0.20 8.86 192 -0.29 9.54 216 -0.50 10.13 240 -0.44 10.70 264 -0.67 11.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.70 4.46 4.32 48 -0.73 -0.70 5.81 5.79 72 -0.69 -0.56 7.45 7.66 96 -0.84 9.55 120 -0.82 10.80 144 -0.55 12.38 168 -0.14 14.52 192 -0.62 16.12 216 -1.22 17.10 240 -1.30 17.92 264 -1.41 19.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.53 4.94 4.95 48 -0.85 -0.54 6.61 6.72 72 -0.75 -0.53 9.25 9.16 96 -0.85 12.03 120 -0.54 14.09 144 0.00 16.81 168 0.18 20.03 192 -0.61 22.90 216 -1.16 24.73 240 -1.26 26.44 264 -1.65 29.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 3.38 1.14 12.79 10.49 0.97 0.98 48 3.64 1.42 15.31 12.83 0.98 0.98 72 2.46 1.27 18.35 16.52 0.97 0.97 96 0.52 21.24 0.95 120 -1.74 26.55 0.93 144 -1.88 33.26 0.90 168 -3.23 38.44 0.87 192 -7.18 45.82 0.82 216 -12.36 53.70 0.75 240 -16.02 58.71 0.69 264 -18.43 61.14 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.87 11.87 12.18 0.98 0.98 48 0.07 -1.06 15.82 15.86 0.98 0.98 72 -2.05 -2.02 21.92 21.87 0.98 0.98 96 -3.36 30.53 0.97 120 -4.17 38.09 0.96 144 -2.61 46.68 0.94 168 -2.17 54.85 0.91 192 -5.41 65.59 0.88 216 -10.05 76.61 0.83 240 -13.35 84.83 0.77 264 -14.75 89.01 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 131 12 UTC = 128 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.36 -2.59 19.99 21.25 0.97 0.97 48 -2.94 -2.72 25.05 25.88 0.98 0.98 72 -7.07 -4.88 33.86 33.99 0.98 0.98 96 -8.75 44.83 0.97 120 -11.63 56.03 0.96 144 -12.04 66.45 0.94 168 -8.62 76.32 0.92 192 -8.98 91.26 0.89 216 -11.40 108.45 0.83 240 -14.01 117.40 0.79 264 -17.98 125.97 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 126 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.67 2.15 1.95 0.91 0.91 48 -0.72 -0.74 2.33 2.14 0.93 0.93 72 -0.74 -0.78 2.50 2.30 0.92 0.93 96 -0.69 2.57 0.92 120 -0.52 2.94 0.91 144 -0.36 3.41 0.89 168 -0.29 3.87 0.86 192 -0.36 4.45 0.82 216 -0.29 4.86 0.77 240 -0.25 5.33 0.71 264 -0.01 5.49 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 136 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.09 0.96 0.97 0.95 0.94 48 -0.14 -0.12 1.18 1.18 0.96 0.96 72 -0.24 -0.18 1.50 1.50 0.95 0.95 96 -0.27 1.87 0.93 120 -0.31 2.28 0.92 144 -0.32 2.63 0.90 168 -0.26 3.06 0.87 192 -0.16 3.54 0.82 216 -0.16 4.06 0.77 240 -0.15 4.28 0.74 264 -0.22 4.43 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.18 1.20 1.20 0.90 0.90 48 0.07 0.16 1.41 1.41 0.91 0.90 72 0.06 0.15 1.68 1.69 0.89 0.89 96 0.17 2.01 0.85 120 0.16 2.35 0.79 144 0.11 2.61 0.74 168 0.25 2.86 0.68 192 0.45 3.15 0.65 216 0.70 3.48 0.62 240 0.82 3.74 0.57 264 0.76 3.79 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 154 12 UTC = 151 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.87 3.88 3.84 48 -0.89 -0.96 4.36 4.27 72 -0.97 -1.10 4.85 4.79 96 -1.22 5.54 120 -1.23 6.32 144 -1.06 7.03 168 -0.84 7.77 192 -0.74 8.31 216 -0.75 9.00 240 -0.63 9.41 264 -0.55 9.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 135 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.35 4.23 4.34 48 -0.74 -0.42 5.15 5.29 72 -0.83 -0.57 6.25 6.34 96 -0.61 7.70 120 -0.68 8.73 144 -0.77 9.75 168 -0.75 10.85 192 -0.49 11.97 216 -0.47 13.14 240 -0.28 14.19 264 -0.23 14.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.62 5.86 5.95 48 -0.70 -0.85 7.41 7.42 72 -0.90 -0.94 8.83 8.83 96 -0.97 10.47 120 -0.95 11.97 144 -0.90 13.37 168 -0.63 15.23 192 -0.31 17.09 216 -0.30 19.53 240 -0.20 20.66 264 -0.21 21.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 147 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.73 -2.67 6.20 6.41 0.95 0.97 48 -4.06 -3.17 8.79 9.91 0.96 0.96 72 -5.28 -3.38 12.21 13.12 0.93 0.94 96 -4.89 15.78 0.91 120 -7.75 20.20 0.89 144 -10.53 27.44 0.77 168 -13.33 37.01 0.77 192 -16.97 41.91 0.73 216 -15.44 43.62 0.64 240 -11.36 45.50 0.59 264 -10.08 45.51 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.92 -8.59 10.63 11.67 0.96 0.97 48 -7.98 -9.20 13.31 14.70 0.97 0.96 72 -8.67 -8.08 17.86 17.91 0.93 0.93 96 -8.45 24.59 0.94 120 -11.20 31.04 0.86 144 -16.41 39.20 0.82 168 -16.39 51.36 0.83 192 -21.11 56.11 0.78 216 -23.29 71.51 0.52 240 -19.08 74.81 0.59 264 -13.02 70.52 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.30 -8.13 13.20 14.34 0.96 0.97 48 -9.25 -11.18 19.16 20.45 0.97 0.96 72 -11.57 -10.78 27.16 27.44 0.94 0.94 96 -12.19 37.82 0.94 120 -15.36 47.07 0.84 144 -23.44 57.64 0.81 168 -19.75 79.89 0.80 192 -26.74 83.67 0.77 216 -32.18 116.10 0.58 240 -29.04 114.72 0.65 264 -18.26 116.42 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.28 1.25 1.22 0.74 0.81 48 -0.04 -0.25 1.42 1.41 0.82 0.88 72 0.08 -0.12 1.70 1.71 0.82 0.84 96 0.08 2.03 0.87 120 0.06 2.36 0.79 144 -0.08 2.54 0.77 168 0.01 2.88 0.74 192 -0.36 2.90 0.75 216 -0.73 3.77 0.63 240 -0.63 3.88 0.64 264 -0.22 4.26 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.02 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.83 48 -0.05 -0.01 0.99 0.92 0.87 0.88 72 -0.10 -0.01 1.13 1.06 0.85 0.87 96 -0.08 1.28 0.87 120 -0.13 1.46 0.81 144 -0.31 1.58 0.69 168 -0.10 2.30 0.66 192 -0.12 2.28 0.66 216 -0.28 3.03 0.52 240 -0.33 2.79 0.58 264 -0.16 3.01 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.06 0.82 0.74 0.85 0.86 48 0.08 -0.02 0.97 0.87 0.87 0.89 72 -0.02 -0.04 1.12 1.07 0.84 0.86 96 -0.15 1.23 0.75 120 -0.10 1.41 0.78 144 -0.08 1.35 0.77 168 -0.12 1.75 0.65 192 -0.04 1.78 0.69 216 -0.11 2.15 0.65 240 -0.02 2.24 0.67 264 -0.01 2.33 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 28 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.50 -0.75 3.66 3.57 48 -0.57 -0.76 4.17 3.94 72 -0.68 -0.77 4.61 4.46 96 -0.66 5.07 120 -0.67 5.63 144 -0.56 6.49 168 -0.33 6.83 192 -0.42 7.16 216 -0.52 7.96 240 -0.42 8.35 264 -0.45 8.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.78 4.05 4.01 48 -0.56 -0.86 4.70 4.91 72 -0.59 -0.78 5.48 5.77 96 -0.66 6.60 120 -0.26 7.30 144 -0.20 8.43 168 -0.01 9.01 192 -0.07 10.04 216 -0.18 10.82 240 -0.30 11.82 264 -0.27 11.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -1.21 5.29 5.40 48 -0.61 -1.18 6.48 7.05 72 -0.75 -1.29 7.87 8.39 96 -1.05 10.76 120 -0.94 12.12 144 -0.12 14.21 168 -0.05 14.98 192 0.25 16.97 216 -0.59 17.83 240 0.13 20.27 264 -0.03 20.35 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 29 12 UTC = 12 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.85 -3.05 9.72 10.39 0.64 0.68 48 -3.25 -3.52 10.13 10.82 0.76 0.77 72 -3.85 -4.07 10.49 11.19 0.77 0.78 96 -4.22 11.53 0.79 120 -4.61 11.87 0.79 144 -4.96 12.38 0.77 168 -5.89 13.26 0.74 192 -5.95 13.85 0.73 216 -6.62 14.49 0.72 240 -6.72 15.50 0.68 264 -7.38 16.21 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -10.25 -8.88 14.38 13.82 0.58 0.62 48 -11.55 -10.41 15.47 14.99 0.71 0.76 72 -13.08 -11.86 16.77 16.23 0.74 0.78 96 -12.96 17.13 0.78 120 -13.93 18.11 0.77 144 -14.77 19.24 0.75 168 -15.86 20.41 0.74 192 -16.23 21.27 0.74 216 -16.90 22.53 0.69 240 -17.14 23.48 0.65 264 -17.99 24.60 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -11.10 -9.13 17.13 15.78 0.61 0.68 48 -12.93 -11.54 18.76 17.87 0.74 0.79 72 -15.04 -13.77 20.82 20.07 0.78 0.80 96 -15.54 22.03 0.80 120 -17.36 24.34 0.78 144 -18.85 26.62 0.75 168 -20.23 28.92 0.69 192 -20.55 30.61 0.68 216 -21.22 33.01 0.67 240 -22.19 35.29 0.63 264 -22.96 36.93 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.34 1.07 1.07 0.45 0.52 48 -0.35 -0.28 1.09 1.10 0.55 0.64 72 -0.32 -0.25 1.11 1.11 0.62 0.70 96 -0.24 1.13 0.71 120 -0.25 1.18 0.70 144 -0.24 1.28 0.67 168 -0.21 1.31 0.65 192 -0.19 1.36 0.63 216 -0.19 1.43 0.61 240 -0.18 1.53 0.54 264 -0.21 1.58 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 77 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.10 0.85 0.83 0.53 0.59 48 -0.03 -0.15 0.90 0.89 0.61 0.66 72 -0.09 -0.21 0.94 0.96 0.63 0.69 96 -0.28 1.01 0.69 120 -0.30 1.04 0.71 144 -0.32 1.09 0.70 168 -0.35 1.13 0.68 192 -0.34 1.17 0.68 216 -0.34 1.26 0.64 240 -0.39 1.30 0.64 264 -0.40 1.36 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.08 0.72 0.69 0.61 0.67 48 0.03 0.02 0.79 0.80 0.66 0.70 72 0.03 0.02 0.86 0.90 0.65 0.66 96 0.04 1.01 0.62 120 0.01 1.09 0.56 144 -0.05 1.17 0.51 168 -0.10 1.23 0.51 192 -0.12 1.26 0.52 216 -0.14 1.26 0.56 240 -0.16 1.30 0.55 264 -0.14 1.40 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 78 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.57 -0.66 3.32 3.27 48 -0.64 -0.79 3.54 3.52 72 -0.72 -0.76 3.71 3.72 96 -0.79 3.85 120 -0.88 4.03 144 -0.93 4.27 168 -0.93 4.50 192 -0.99 4.68 216 -0.88 4.84 240 -0.71 5.11 264 -0.51 5.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.78 3.77 3.72 48 -0.86 -0.83 4.03 3.98 72 -0.87 -0.87 4.34 4.33 96 -0.87 4.72 120 -0.82 5.02 144 -0.86 5.34 168 -0.91 5.67 192 -0.85 6.10 216 -0.98 6.39 240 -1.05 6.71 264 -1.04 7.10 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.02 -1.04 4.77 4.88 48 -1.07 -1.09 5.70 5.87 72 -1.14 -1.04 6.36 6.76 96 -1.06 7.36 120 -1.10 7.96 144 -1.16 8.47 168 -1.14 9.30 192 -1.15 9.93 216 -1.34 10.60 240 -1.36 11.24 264 -1.47 11.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.55 -2.32 10.98 10.61 0.98 0.98 48 -2.02 -3.39 13.99 14.04 0.98 0.98 72 -2.20 -3.65 18.12 18.54 0.97 0.97 96 -4.11 24.72 0.96 120 -5.92 32.30 0.94 144 -7.43 41.62 0.90 168 -7.88 49.55 0.87 192 -8.53 57.91 0.82 216 -8.03 64.40 0.78 240 -6.81 68.78 0.75 264 -6.33 72.33 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 397 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.35 -4.77 13.10 13.21 0.99 0.98 48 -4.91 -6.22 17.91 18.50 0.99 0.98 72 -5.49 -6.90 25.14 25.93 0.98 0.98 96 -7.55 35.73 0.96 120 -8.43 47.78 0.94 144 -9.80 60.37 0.92 168 -10.08 72.09 0.89 192 -11.19 86.03 0.85 216 -10.40 97.26 0.81 240 -8.41 103.54 0.78 264 -7.76 110.14 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 412 12 UTC = 405 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.80 -6.58 18.84 19.31 0.98 0.98 48 -7.69 -8.66 24.96 25.75 0.99 0.98 72 -9.57 -10.55 34.78 35.29 0.98 0.98 96 -12.63 48.21 0.97 120 -13.91 63.78 0.95 144 -15.45 80.28 0.92 168 -14.80 96.37 0.89 192 -15.58 116.06 0.85 216 -14.79 133.07 0.81 240 -12.46 144.13 0.78 264 -12.59 153.84 0.75 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 410 12 UTC = 402 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.42 1.75 1.71 0.92 0.92 48 -0.43 -0.42 1.92 1.89 0.94 0.94 72 -0.39 -0.41 2.13 2.14 0.94 0.94 96 -0.36 2.46 0.93 120 -0.27 2.95 0.91 144 -0.25 3.47 0.88 168 -0.21 4.00 0.84 192 -0.27 4.58 0.79 216 -0.22 5.04 0.76 240 -0.12 5.45 0.72 264 -0.03 5.66 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 420 12 UTC = 412 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.10 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.95 48 -0.12 -0.14 1.19 1.20 0.96 0.96 72 -0.18 -0.18 1.56 1.58 0.95 0.95 96 -0.24 2.02 0.93 120 -0.25 2.50 0.91 144 -0.27 2.98 0.88 168 -0.26 3.43 0.84 192 -0.29 3.94 0.79 216 -0.29 4.40 0.75 240 -0.28 4.67 0.72 264 -0.32 4.87 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 450 12 UTC = 444 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.18 1.19 1.18 0.92 0.92 48 0.15 0.17 1.45 1.45 0.92 0.92 72 0.13 0.15 1.79 1.82 0.91 0.90 96 0.13 2.19 0.87 120 0.16 2.65 0.81 144 0.20 3.01 0.76 168 0.27 3.29 0.72 192 0.36 3.65 0.67 216 0.40 3.93 0.64 240 0.43 4.13 0.63 264 0.41 4.21 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 445 12 UTC = 439 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.81 3.93 3.93 48 -0.78 -0.86 4.44 4.48 72 -0.86 -0.92 5.12 5.22 96 -0.98 6.05 120 -0.95 7.04 144 -0.85 8.00 168 -0.69 8.98 192 -0.64 9.82 216 -0.64 10.48 240 -0.63 10.77 264 -0.66 10.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 396 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.59 4.33 4.37 48 -0.73 -0.66 5.45 5.50 72 -0.80 -0.75 6.73 6.90 96 -0.83 8.50 120 -0.83 10.04 144 -0.79 11.60 168 -0.72 13.03 192 -0.65 14.51 216 -0.72 15.76 240 -0.79 16.64 264 -0.88 17.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 434 12 UTC = 429 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -0.66 5.45 5.45 48 -0.75 -0.81 6.98 7.02 72 -0.81 -0.85 8.79 8.74 96 -0.89 10.77 120 -0.81 13.04 144 -0.67 15.37 168 -0.57 17.72 192 -0.61 20.02 216 -0.66 22.41 240 -0.86 23.86 264 -1.05 24.86 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 430 12 UTC = 424 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.09 -1.59 9.35 10.17 0.97 0.97 48 -3.05 -1.55 11.92 13.65 0.97 0.97 72 -3.23 -1.31 15.94 18.12 0.94 0.94 96 -1.50 24.14 0.91 120 -1.55 29.45 0.88 144 -2.39 37.76 0.80 168 -3.17 44.37 0.72 192 -2.09 49.64 0.68 216 -0.29 51.62 0.63 240 1.29 55.73 0.58 264 2.92 58.47 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 43 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.80 -7.34 12.73 13.40 0.97 0.97 48 -7.07 -7.20 15.95 17.35 0.97 0.97 72 -6.15 -5.63 21.03 23.20 0.95 0.95 96 -4.90 31.79 0.93 120 -4.48 42.23 0.88 144 -6.44 53.00 0.83 168 -8.76 62.11 0.76 192 -7.65 73.58 0.66 216 -7.30 76.81 0.63 240 -4.42 82.27 0.56 264 0.31 83.87 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.61 -8.08 16.68 17.13 0.98 0.98 48 -9.34 -9.36 22.84 24.44 0.97 0.97 72 -9.88 -8.69 32.15 33.88 0.95 0.96 96 -8.82 46.20 0.93 120 -9.49 63.39 0.88 144 -13.17 78.08 0.83 168 -15.40 94.51 0.75 192 -13.96 108.19 0.66 216 -14.58 115.90 0.62 240 -10.19 120.22 0.56 264 -1.81 123.34 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.53 1.64 1.57 0.86 0.88 48 -0.40 -0.46 1.79 1.68 0.87 0.90 72 -0.21 -0.34 1.97 1.88 0.87 0.89 96 -0.13 2.29 0.86 120 -0.07 2.66 0.81 144 -0.14 3.01 0.76 168 -0.27 3.53 0.68 192 -0.34 3.91 0.65 216 -0.47 4.19 0.59 240 -0.42 4.27 0.58 264 -0.31 4.38 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 45 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.01 0.92 0.95 0.90 0.91 48 -0.01 -0.01 1.16 1.18 0.89 0.92 72 0.00 0.02 1.40 1.46 0.88 0.91 96 0.00 1.81 0.87 120 -0.01 2.25 0.81 144 -0.12 2.52 0.74 168 -0.17 2.92 0.68 192 -0.13 3.37 0.58 216 -0.14 3.54 0.53 240 -0.09 3.57 0.52 264 0.13 3.66 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.01 1.02 1.07 0.90 0.89 48 -0.03 -0.15 1.25 1.35 0.90 0.90 72 -0.14 -0.25 1.59 1.70 0.87 0.86 96 -0.29 2.05 0.80 120 -0.44 2.27 0.79 144 -0.32 2.50 0.73 168 -0.33 2.84 0.68 192 -0.34 3.06 0.61 216 -0.38 3.24 0.58 240 -0.42 3.31 0.63 264 -0.37 3.42 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.97 4.31 4.32 48 -0.72 -1.06 4.82 4.90 72 -0.83 -1.09 5.23 5.42 96 -1.10 6.20 120 -1.07 7.20 144 -1.16 7.90 168 -1.13 8.35 192 -1.18 8.81 216 -0.95 9.20 240 -0.79 9.32 264 -1.01 9.76 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 44 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.83 4.21 4.36 48 -0.58 -0.97 5.00 5.35 72 -0.71 -1.14 5.95 6.46 96 -1.24 7.84 120 -0.99 9.27 144 -1.17 10.49 168 -1.08 11.55 192 -1.13 12.47 216 -1.25 12.91 240 -0.97 13.71 264 -1.32 14.11 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MARCH 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.84 5.57 5.74 48 -0.81 -0.95 7.25 7.50 72 -1.04 -1.18 8.78 9.25 96 -1.43 11.83 120 -1.17 14.49 144 -1.36 16.36 168 -1.38 17.96 192 -1.38 19.90 216 -1.81 20.72 240 -1.19 22.20 264 -1.58 22.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 46 12 UTC = 36 ---------------------------------------------------------