VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY APRIL 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.08 0.85 0.87 0.99 0.99 16.9 16.9 48 -0.10 -0.12 1.47 1.50 0.98 0.98 26.1 26.2 72 -0.12 -0.13 2.21 2.23 0.95 0.96 34.5 34.5 96 -0.16 3.16 0.91 43.6 120 -0.19 4.14 0.85 51.8 144 -0.18 5.15 0.76 59.5 168 -0.22 6.13 0.66 65.9 192 -0.23 6.87 0.58 70.4 216 -0.21 7.45 0.50 74.3 240 -0.15 8.10 0.41 77.8 264 -0.12 8.74 0.32 80.1 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.48 0.06 6.47 6.72 1.00 1.00 9.8 9.9 48 0.96 0.56 13.18 13.50 0.99 0.99 17.7 17.9 72 1.28 1.02 21.52 22.06 0.97 0.97 25.4 25.9 96 1.25 32.49 0.94 34.1 120 1.38 43.71 0.89 41.5 144 1.91 56.17 0.83 48.8 168 2.00 67.67 0.75 54.8 192 2.38 76.21 0.68 58.7 216 2.95 85.52 0.60 62.7 240 3.62 94.32 0.51 66.6 264 4.09 102.91 0.41 69.7 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.64 8.91 9.32 1.00 1.00 8.3 8.4 48 -0.71 -1.03 17.45 18.17 0.99 0.99 14.2 14.5 72 -1.37 -1.49 27.62 28.56 0.98 0.98 20.5 21.0 96 -2.09 41.92 0.95 28.0 120 -2.48 56.86 0.91 34.5 144 -2.65 72.81 0.85 41.4 168 -3.10 87.73 0.78 47.1 192 -3.17 100.92 0.71 51.2 216 -3.00 114.92 0.62 55.3 240 -2.72 126.63 0.54 59.2 264 -2.82 138.66 0.44 62.3 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.05 0.47 0.48 0.99 0.99 48 0.07 0.08 0.85 0.85 0.97 0.97 72 0.08 0.08 1.25 1.27 0.94 0.94 96 0.08 1.74 0.89 120 0.09 2.20 0.83 144 0.08 2.70 0.74 168 0.07 3.11 0.66 192 0.06 3.47 0.58 216 0.07 3.79 0.49 240 0.07 4.07 0.41 264 0.07 4.36 0.33 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.14 0.65 0.64 0.98 0.98 48 -0.27 -0.26 1.08 1.09 0.95 0.95 72 -0.36 -0.35 1.51 1.53 0.91 0.91 96 -0.43 2.01 0.83 120 -0.49 2.46 0.74 144 -0.55 2.92 0.64 168 -0.60 3.25 0.54 192 -0.63 3.45 0.48 216 -0.67 3.70 0.40 240 -0.70 3.92 0.32 264 -0.71 4.07 0.27 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.08 2.16 2.18 48 -0.18 -0.17 3.81 3.85 72 -0.26 -0.23 5.44 5.53 96 -0.25 7.29 120 -0.23 8.92 144 -0.24 10.61 168 -0.23 12.13 192 -0.25 13.14 216 -0.28 14.19 240 -0.36 15.13 264 -0.42 15.93 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.13 -0.07 3.33 3.31 48 -0.26 -0.18 5.35 5.47 72 -0.34 -0.25 7.38 7.56 96 -0.28 9.94 120 -0.27 12.11 144 -0.31 14.49 168 -0.25 16.71 192 -0.20 18.44 216 -0.23 20.20 240 -0.33 21.63 264 -0.42 22.95 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.00 0.09 3.47 3.56 0.97 0.97 25.3 25.8 48 -0.08 0.02 4.80 5.17 0.94 0.93 33.4 33.4 72 -0.18 -0.12 5.68 6.23 0.92 0.90 38.3 38.5 96 -0.02 6.79 0.88 42.4 120 0.05 7.43 0.85 45.6 144 -0.04 8.34 0.81 48.5 168 -0.30 9.27 0.78 50.8 192 -0.68 9.56 0.77 52.2 216 -0.91 10.27 0.73 54.0 240 -0.94 11.21 0.68 56.3 264 -0.51 11.78 0.65 57.7 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.51 -0.73 4.26 4.44 0.98 0.98 17.5 17.7 48 -2.97 -3.20 6.89 7.22 0.96 0.96 24.1 24.5 72 -4.93 -5.15 9.51 9.78 0.94 0.93 29.1 29.5 96 -6.50 11.97 0.90 33.6 120 -7.59 13.97 0.86 37.2 144 -8.70 15.72 0.82 40.0 168 -9.84 17.71 0.78 42.8 192 -11.05 20.08 0.72 45.7 216 -11.90 22.10 0.65 48.6 240 -12.64 24.11 0.57 51.7 264 -12.81 25.56 0.51 54.3 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.08 -0.08 0.40 0.40 0.96 0.97 48 -0.11 -0.11 0.60 0.60 0.92 0.93 72 -0.14 -0.12 0.74 0.73 0.88 0.89 96 -0.14 0.84 0.86 120 -0.14 0.92 0.83 144 -0.14 0.99 0.80 168 -0.15 1.08 0.76 192 -0.15 1.18 0.72 216 -0.16 1.27 0.68 240 -0.17 1.38 0.62 264 -0.18 1.47 0.57 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.28 -0.30 0.42 0.43 0.95 0.95 48 -0.48 -0.51 0.66 0.69 0.89 0.88 72 -0.58 -0.61 0.82 0.85 0.83 0.81 96 -0.67 0.96 0.74 120 -0.70 1.04 0.68 144 -0.74 1.12 0.62 168 -0.78 1.19 0.57 192 -0.81 1.23 0.53 216 -0.81 1.26 0.48 240 -0.80 1.29 0.44 264 -0.79 1.30 0.41 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.16 1.34 1.34 48 -0.23 -0.22 1.97 1.96 72 -0.26 -0.26 2.44 2.41 96 -0.27 2.77 120 -0.27 3.08 144 -0.27 3.35 168 -0.28 3.58 192 -0.31 3.81 216 -0.37 4.00 240 -0.39 4.25 264 -0.38 4.40 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.26 2.81 2.80 48 -0.49 -0.47 4.17 4.15 72 -0.65 -0.61 5.26 5.28 96 -0.62 6.24 120 -0.61 7.09 144 -0.57 7.79 168 -0.56 8.45 192 -0.58 9.13 216 -0.67 9.71 240 -0.66 10.35 264 -0.68 10.94 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.05 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 12.8 12.9 48 0.02 0.04 2.05 2.03 0.98 0.98 23.6 23.6 72 0.03 0.05 3.30 3.18 0.95 0.95 33.3 32.8 96 0.05 4.54 0.90 41.1 120 0.07 5.90 0.82 48.7 144 0.08 7.34 0.73 55.3 168 0.13 8.61 0.63 60.5 192 0.16 9.54 0.55 64.2 216 0.15 10.18 0.49 66.4 240 0.07 10.80 0.43 68.5 264 -0.01 11.56 0.36 69.8 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.32 8.12 8.13 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.4 48 0.03 0.13 17.56 17.50 0.99 0.99 17.9 17.9 72 -0.12 -0.05 29.02 28.49 0.97 0.97 26.1 25.8 96 -0.13 42.07 0.93 33.5 120 -0.15 56.79 0.86 40.9 144 -0.63 73.11 0.77 48.0 168 -0.51 88.17 0.67 53.9 192 -0.76 100.69 0.57 58.3 216 -1.36 109.22 0.49 61.2 240 -2.16 116.44 0.42 63.6 264 -2.78 125.74 0.33 66.0 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.27 10.85 10.77 1.00 1.00 8.1 8.1 48 -1.16 -1.24 22.77 22.69 0.99 0.99 14.8 14.8 72 -2.22 -2.44 37.91 37.11 0.97 0.97 21.9 21.7 96 -3.39 55.00 0.93 28.6 120 -4.46 75.10 0.87 35.7 144 -5.57 97.45 0.79 42.5 168 -5.97 117.89 0.69 48.4 192 -6.99 137.18 0.58 53.3 216 -8.23 151.08 0.49 56.6 240 -9.03 161.22 0.42 59.1 264 -8.83 173.65 0.33 61.7 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.01 0.50 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 0.01 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.97 72 0.00 -0.02 1.54 1.51 0.92 0.93 96 -0.02 2.04 0.86 120 -0.05 2.55 0.78 144 -0.08 3.12 0.67 168 -0.11 3.59 0.57 192 -0.15 4.02 0.45 216 -0.19 4.30 0.37 240 -0.22 4.52 0.31 264 -0.21 4.78 0.24 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.09 -0.11 0.60 0.61 0.99 0.99 48 -0.18 -0.20 1.10 1.11 0.95 0.95 72 -0.25 -0.26 1.60 1.59 0.89 0.89 96 -0.31 2.07 0.82 120 -0.34 2.48 0.74 144 -0.36 2.90 0.64 168 -0.37 3.21 0.56 192 -0.41 3.46 0.50 216 -0.43 3.68 0.44 240 -0.39 3.84 0.38 264 -0.36 3.99 0.33 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.07 2.24 2.24 48 -0.11 -0.12 4.30 4.33 72 -0.17 -0.19 6.31 6.27 96 -0.21 8.18 120 -0.25 10.15 144 -0.21 12.16 168 -0.20 13.80 192 -0.26 15.17 216 -0.25 16.11 240 -0.20 16.94 264 -0.16 17.73 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.05 3.27 3.27 48 -0.12 -0.10 5.83 5.84 72 -0.18 -0.17 8.58 8.45 96 -0.19 11.24 120 -0.18 14.31 144 -0.14 17.42 168 -0.19 19.92 192 -0.32 22.32 216 -0.27 24.10 240 -0.09 25.53 264 0.06 26.91 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.87 -1.64 7.59 8.01 0.98 0.98 48 -2.93 -2.89 11.01 12.07 0.98 0.98 72 -3.36 -3.41 15.06 16.50 0.97 0.96 96 -3.28 21.75 0.94 120 -4.62 29.74 0.90 144 -8.45 38.32 0.85 168 -12.63 45.71 0.81 192 -15.28 50.45 0.79 216 -13.88 53.81 0.76 240 -9.95 59.35 0.70 264 -12.29 64.08 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.70 -3.43 10.28 10.69 0.99 0.99 48 -2.64 -3.49 15.54 16.44 0.98 0.98 72 -2.01 -3.08 22.40 23.91 0.97 0.97 96 -2.06 34.11 0.96 120 -2.63 46.59 0.92 144 -7.18 61.45 0.87 168 -9.57 71.74 0.84 192 -10.25 79.66 0.83 216 -10.54 90.65 0.79 240 -8.08 102.12 0.74 264 -8.17 110.32 0.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.66 -4.58 14.42 14.25 0.99 0.99 48 -3.38 -4.46 21.96 22.18 0.99 0.98 72 -2.57 -4.03 31.73 33.84 0.97 0.97 96 -3.12 49.61 0.94 120 -4.01 66.46 0.92 144 -8.89 87.89 0.87 168 -11.54 100.42 0.85 192 -11.51 112.98 0.83 216 -9.78 130.71 0.78 240 -7.51 145.99 0.73 264 -11.49 159.07 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.44 1.58 1.84 0.93 0.93 48 -0.11 -0.37 1.87 2.04 0.94 0.95 72 -0.04 -0.33 2.20 2.30 0.94 0.94 96 -0.25 2.72 0.92 120 -0.22 3.24 0.89 144 -0.23 4.05 0.85 168 0.01 4.67 0.79 192 0.31 5.25 0.77 216 0.28 5.83 0.71 240 0.10 6.24 0.65 264 0.30 6.44 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.05 0.90 0.92 0.95 0.95 48 0.11 0.08 1.18 1.18 0.96 0.95 72 0.14 0.11 1.46 1.45 0.94 0.94 96 0.13 1.97 0.91 120 0.17 2.38 0.88 144 0.11 3.00 0.83 168 0.16 3.46 0.77 192 0.24 3.75 0.75 216 0.21 4.11 0.71 240 0.10 4.47 0.65 264 0.09 4.78 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.03 0.03 0.99 1.01 0.93 0.93 48 -0.02 -0.02 1.23 1.26 0.93 0.92 72 -0.04 -0.05 1.43 1.49 0.92 0.91 96 -0.11 1.88 0.87 120 -0.14 2.28 0.81 144 -0.04 2.72 0.76 168 -0.10 2.98 0.68 192 -0.06 3.11 0.66 216 0.20 3.25 0.68 240 0.23 3.38 0.67 264 0.07 3.47 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 93 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.88 3.87 4.19 48 -0.47 -0.89 4.32 4.77 72 -0.53 -0.99 4.91 5.37 96 -1.07 6.24 120 -0.93 7.38 144 -0.71 8.44 168 -0.59 9.65 192 -0.72 10.27 216 -0.52 10.92 240 -0.59 11.38 264 -0.74 11.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.61 4.35 4.46 48 -0.89 -0.74 5.39 5.52 72 -1.06 -0.87 6.46 6.75 96 -0.77 8.30 120 -0.70 10.08 144 -0.48 11.97 168 -0.25 14.04 192 -0.23 15.00 216 0.21 16.39 240 0.44 17.74 264 -0.06 17.98 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.70 5.89 5.80 48 -0.96 -0.92 7.40 7.53 72 -0.92 -0.99 9.17 9.61 96 -1.00 12.20 120 -0.87 14.89 144 -0.66 17.83 168 -0.57 20.38 192 -0.51 21.97 216 -0.05 24.28 240 -0.04 26.19 264 -0.34 27.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.15 -5.30 9.35 9.54 0.98 0.97 48 -5.63 -7.22 12.12 13.20 0.97 0.98 72 -5.38 -8.00 17.18 17.98 0.96 0.96 96 -7.92 24.39 0.94 120 -6.14 28.66 0.92 144 -9.20 37.73 0.88 168 -18.37 50.11 0.80 192 -19.76 57.80 0.72 216 -15.45 55.82 0.72 240 -18.87 61.67 0.70 264 -19.55 66.64 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.17 -6.09 12.14 11.76 0.98 0.98 48 -7.61 -7.87 16.64 16.86 0.98 0.98 72 -7.08 -8.41 23.97 25.10 0.97 0.97 96 -8.24 34.12 0.94 120 -7.67 40.19 0.93 144 -10.56 53.15 0.89 168 -19.92 73.71 0.80 192 -23.93 85.25 0.74 216 -17.28 92.71 0.69 240 -17.12 96.56 0.69 264 -19.99 101.85 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.66 -6.80 15.90 14.90 0.98 0.98 48 -9.79 -9.60 21.43 20.79 0.98 0.98 72 -9.89 -11.10 30.48 31.91 0.97 0.97 96 -12.78 43.78 0.94 120 -14.72 54.63 0.93 144 -19.12 68.96 0.91 168 -24.70 93.71 0.84 192 -34.17 115.45 0.77 216 -25.59 130.54 0.69 240 -27.50 134.75 0.68 264 -35.25 138.63 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 0.08 1.30 1.18 0.90 0.89 48 -0.38 0.05 1.49 1.36 0.93 0.92 72 -0.35 0.02 1.77 1.62 0.91 0.91 96 0.09 2.01 0.87 120 -0.01 2.34 0.84 144 0.10 2.68 0.82 168 0.13 3.22 0.77 192 0.01 3.71 0.69 216 0.17 4.13 0.63 240 0.32 4.27 0.61 264 0.19 4.15 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 -0.05 0.84 0.79 0.94 0.95 48 -0.05 -0.04 1.08 1.00 0.95 0.95 72 0.00 0.01 1.41 1.38 0.92 0.92 96 0.02 1.76 0.89 120 -0.04 2.17 0.86 144 -0.15 2.58 0.82 168 -0.11 3.22 0.72 192 -0.35 3.81 0.67 216 -0.22 4.22 0.59 240 -0.07 4.44 0.52 264 -0.26 4.43 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 72 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.21 1.15 1.07 0.93 0.94 48 0.23 0.17 1.45 1.35 0.93 0.93 72 0.12 0.03 1.75 1.75 0.91 0.91 96 -0.13 2.10 0.88 120 -0.16 2.48 0.84 144 -0.20 2.98 0.77 168 -0.03 3.61 0.64 192 0.14 3.82 0.61 216 0.08 3.99 0.57 240 -0.15 4.21 0.51 264 -0.16 4.31 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.58 -0.36 3.80 3.81 48 -0.49 -0.33 4.31 4.24 72 -0.46 -0.33 4.99 4.84 96 -0.43 5.87 120 -0.42 6.42 144 -0.42 7.35 168 -0.03 8.44 192 0.06 9.47 216 -0.03 9.24 240 0.30 9.95 264 0.40 10.37 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.42 -0.44 4.35 4.25 48 -0.36 -0.36 5.37 5.27 72 -0.45 -0.40 6.87 7.01 96 -0.37 8.76 120 -0.30 9.94 144 -0.14 11.02 168 0.24 13.58 192 0.10 15.16 216 -0.15 15.56 240 -0.43 16.25 264 -0.53 16.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.40 -0.26 4.81 4.72 48 -0.38 -0.11 6.32 6.06 72 -0.21 -0.14 8.25 8.20 96 0.10 10.68 120 0.39 12.39 144 0.84 14.12 168 1.33 17.64 192 1.09 20.30 216 1.60 22.22 240 1.05 22.46 264 0.66 22.93 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 66 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 2.55 2.38 10.98 10.71 0.97 0.97 48 0.92 0.63 14.16 13.07 0.97 0.97 72 -0.73 -0.60 18.13 16.67 0.95 0.96 96 -0.80 20.99 0.93 120 -0.98 26.23 0.90 144 -1.78 33.32 0.83 168 -2.56 38.29 0.76 192 -1.91 42.44 0.71 216 -5.33 47.36 0.66 240 -5.93 53.24 0.59 264 -3.76 58.33 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 119 12 UTC = 119 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 1.08 2.00 12.63 13.25 0.97 0.97 48 0.83 1.75 17.30 17.39 0.97 0.97 72 -0.81 1.05 22.75 22.45 0.96 0.96 96 1.61 29.61 0.92 120 2.60 38.24 0.89 144 3.00 48.12 0.85 168 2.63 54.53 0.83 192 3.58 61.74 0.79 216 2.25 70.54 0.72 240 1.65 79.48 0.65 264 6.51 84.97 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 130 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.97 -0.29 20.69 20.56 0.96 0.96 48 -1.07 2.05 27.50 29.12 0.97 0.96 72 -2.85 2.14 33.41 35.05 0.96 0.96 96 1.16 42.45 0.93 120 1.81 53.91 0.90 144 2.75 67.14 0.88 168 1.72 80.73 0.86 192 1.30 88.66 0.83 216 0.33 99.79 0.76 240 1.25 114.61 0.68 264 7.28 124.90 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 129 12 UTC = 127 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.48 1.70 1.86 0.88 0.89 48 -0.27 -0.44 1.91 2.10 0.91 0.90 72 -0.29 -0.47 2.12 2.28 0.90 0.89 96 -0.36 2.44 0.87 120 -0.26 2.79 0.83 144 -0.21 3.25 0.78 168 -0.12 3.62 0.76 192 -0.01 3.80 0.73 216 0.09 4.10 0.69 240 0.03 4.57 0.63 264 0.14 4.89 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 138 12 UTC = 138 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 0.06 1.04 1.03 0.93 0.93 48 0.05 0.14 1.28 1.27 0.94 0.94 72 0.06 0.18 1.52 1.54 0.93 0.93 96 0.20 1.81 0.89 120 0.24 2.21 0.85 144 0.31 2.65 0.82 168 0.28 3.01 0.81 192 0.28 3.31 0.77 216 0.39 3.53 0.72 240 0.39 4.00 0.62 264 0.58 4.39 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 156 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.06 0.00 1.22 1.20 0.91 0.91 48 0.00 0.13 1.51 1.55 0.91 0.91 72 0.00 0.18 1.73 1.82 0.90 0.89 96 0.01 2.07 0.86 120 -0.06 2.52 0.79 144 -0.09 2.93 0.75 168 -0.08 3.12 0.73 192 -0.14 3.25 0.71 216 -0.26 3.57 0.65 240 -0.16 3.85 0.57 264 -0.28 3.94 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 154 12 UTC = 152 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.91 -0.81 4.07 3.94 48 -0.82 -0.73 4.70 4.54 72 -0.87 -0.73 5.18 5.14 96 -0.84 5.87 120 -0.81 6.54 144 -0.78 7.58 168 -0.90 8.41 192 -0.84 8.91 216 -0.72 9.51 240 -0.82 9.76 264 -0.69 10.26 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 133 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.39 4.53 4.64 48 -0.67 -0.46 5.66 5.66 72 -0.80 -0.53 6.59 6.68 96 -0.68 7.75 120 -0.75 9.14 144 -0.69 10.52 168 -0.71 11.37 192 -0.66 12.00 216 -0.49 13.02 240 -0.42 13.80 264 -0.51 14.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 152 12 UTC = 149 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.57 6.41 6.50 48 -0.83 -0.77 8.26 8.77 72 -0.81 -0.70 9.39 10.00 96 -0.87 11.27 120 -0.98 13.18 144 -1.07 15.29 168 -0.99 16.94 192 -0.95 17.39 216 -0.67 18.78 240 -0.60 20.56 264 -0.87 22.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 149 12 UTC = 147 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.59 -2.13 6.20 5.87 0.98 0.98 48 -2.93 -3.59 8.50 9.17 0.97 0.98 72 -2.97 -3.62 10.41 12.62 0.96 0.98 96 -3.73 17.69 0.88 120 -5.01 24.84 0.83 144 -6.20 29.77 0.82 168 -6.42 35.22 0.77 192 -2.20 40.36 0.61 216 1.55 47.05 0.40 240 4.13 46.52 0.41 264 -1.38 51.68 0.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.68 -7.58 10.41 11.31 0.97 0.98 48 -9.38 -10.58 13.83 16.46 0.98 0.98 72 -10.64 -11.18 17.05 22.30 0.97 0.96 96 -12.25 26.17 0.93 120 -12.24 39.03 0.88 144 -15.83 48.55 0.77 168 -17.30 58.97 0.72 192 -11.67 61.85 0.66 216 -3.46 69.09 0.47 240 1.28 77.67 0.34 264 -8.04 83.33 0.34 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.60 -5.43 12.97 12.80 0.98 0.98 48 -11.74 -10.61 19.44 20.62 0.98 0.98 72 -14.96 -13.26 25.95 31.19 0.97 0.97 96 -16.27 38.19 0.94 120 -17.17 52.93 0.89 144 -24.35 70.18 0.82 168 -28.54 90.28 0.69 192 -19.59 89.46 0.76 216 -4.65 101.87 0.60 240 -1.83 119.86 0.45 264 -16.29 122.89 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.70 -0.56 1.26 1.13 0.84 0.88 48 -0.78 -0.67 1.37 1.26 0.89 0.93 72 -0.80 -0.64 1.53 1.47 0.87 0.90 96 -0.63 1.71 0.81 120 -0.65 1.84 0.79 144 -0.72 2.26 0.73 168 -0.78 2.93 0.61 192 -0.62 3.00 0.67 216 -0.57 3.40 0.42 240 -0.18 3.59 0.44 264 -0.37 3.73 0.42 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.04 0.14 0.78 0.77 0.89 0.86 48 -0.12 0.05 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 72 -0.17 -0.01 1.07 1.15 0.91 0.91 96 -0.09 1.31 0.86 120 -0.01 1.66 0.81 144 -0.25 1.91 0.78 168 -0.31 2.40 0.70 192 -0.20 2.35 0.77 216 0.02 2.71 0.67 240 0.13 3.01 0.54 264 -0.19 3.29 0.40 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.09 0.84 0.78 0.88 0.85 48 -0.02 -0.04 0.99 0.97 0.91 0.84 72 -0.14 -0.17 1.13 1.19 0.90 0.87 96 -0.14 1.35 0.83 120 -0.33 1.56 0.79 144 -0.30 1.75 0.76 168 -0.26 2.07 0.69 192 -0.22 2.31 0.67 216 -0.18 2.37 0.61 240 -0.34 2.56 0.62 264 -0.27 2.74 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.54 -0.75 3.49 3.39 48 -0.65 -0.77 3.84 3.66 72 -0.65 -0.71 4.23 4.19 96 -0.65 4.83 120 -0.51 5.45 144 -0.48 6.30 168 -0.69 7.32 192 -0.65 8.36 216 -1.30 8.53 240 -0.96 8.66 264 -0.95 8.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.39 -0.16 3.72 3.58 48 -0.45 -0.20 4.27 4.32 72 -0.46 -0.28 4.87 4.92 96 -0.29 5.91 120 -0.39 7.07 144 -0.48 8.55 168 -1.03 10.16 192 -0.92 11.17 216 -1.04 12.23 240 -1.01 11.30 264 -0.57 12.72 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.79 5.11 5.09 48 -0.74 -0.68 6.36 6.23 72 -0.73 -0.88 7.69 7.82 96 -1.45 9.63 120 -1.69 11.41 144 -1.73 13.55 168 -2.66 16.07 192 -2.51 17.98 216 -1.97 19.74 240 -1.69 19.25 264 -1.82 21.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 11 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.75 -2.94 9.40 10.33 0.68 0.67 48 -3.79 -3.98 10.02 10.89 0.76 0.79 72 -4.27 -4.67 10.38 11.51 0.79 0.79 96 -4.81 11.87 0.78 120 -4.67 12.03 0.77 144 -4.83 12.57 0.77 168 -4.63 13.16 0.75 192 -4.47 13.28 0.73 216 -4.30 13.64 0.71 240 -4.22 14.11 0.67 264 -3.96 14.71 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.99 -5.47 11.88 11.76 0.62 0.62 48 -8.07 -6.34 12.54 12.45 0.76 0.75 72 -8.88 -7.10 13.24 13.15 0.78 0.76 96 -7.65 13.74 0.76 120 -7.95 14.15 0.77 144 -8.49 14.80 0.79 168 -8.61 15.38 0.77 192 -8.92 15.90 0.76 216 -9.31 17.00 0.73 240 -9.75 17.97 0.68 264 -10.09 18.80 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 62 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.83 -6.62 15.59 14.16 0.63 0.66 48 -11.69 -9.01 17.57 16.14 0.77 0.78 72 -13.74 -10.83 19.50 17.99 0.81 0.80 96 -12.28 19.72 0.80 120 -13.52 21.17 0.81 144 -15.20 22.81 0.83 168 -16.15 24.11 0.82 192 -17.37 25.26 0.81 216 -18.02 26.29 0.80 240 -19.13 27.83 0.77 264 -19.86 29.42 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.53 1.25 1.14 0.40 0.46 48 -0.70 -0.55 1.30 1.18 0.53 0.58 72 -0.71 -0.56 1.32 1.20 0.56 0.64 96 -0.58 1.21 0.69 120 -0.59 1.24 0.71 144 -0.60 1.27 0.72 168 -0.62 1.33 0.72 192 -0.62 1.33 0.73 216 -0.61 1.34 0.72 240 -0.60 1.40 0.71 264 -0.63 1.48 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.16 0.14 0.79 0.79 0.51 0.57 48 0.15 0.16 0.82 0.83 0.61 0.64 72 0.13 0.16 0.86 0.87 0.63 0.66 96 0.13 0.93 0.64 120 0.09 0.97 0.62 144 0.06 1.03 0.64 168 0.06 1.04 0.64 192 0.01 1.07 0.64 216 -0.05 1.09 0.64 240 -0.10 1.14 0.60 264 -0.15 1.19 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.25 -0.31 0.64 0.69 0.65 0.69 48 -0.43 -0.49 0.77 0.85 0.71 0.73 72 -0.51 -0.55 0.88 0.95 0.71 0.72 96 -0.58 1.02 0.70 120 -0.63 1.10 0.70 144 -0.70 1.17 0.67 168 -0.75 1.23 0.66 192 -0.79 1.26 0.66 216 -0.80 1.29 0.62 240 -0.81 1.33 0.60 264 -0.82 1.36 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.64 3.20 3.23 48 -0.31 -0.54 3.38 3.42 72 -0.34 -0.54 3.60 3.58 96 -0.57 3.74 120 -0.58 3.88 144 -0.55 4.06 168 -0.51 4.22 192 -0.52 4.30 216 -0.49 4.35 240 -0.48 4.60 264 -0.46 4.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.73 3.47 3.57 48 -0.97 -0.90 3.73 3.84 72 -1.04 -0.98 3.94 4.11 96 -1.02 4.41 120 -1.13 4.65 144 -1.20 4.98 168 -1.23 5.32 192 -1.27 5.58 216 -1.37 5.94 240 -1.40 6.19 264 -1.35 6.45 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 82 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.89 -0.84 4.33 4.55 48 -1.08 -1.12 5.03 5.27 72 -1.25 -1.30 5.70 6.06 96 -1.37 6.69 120 -1.46 7.22 144 -1.54 7.73 168 -1.59 8.31 192 -1.60 8.72 216 -1.66 9.16 240 -1.47 9.76 264 -1.35 10.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 59 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.50 -1.75 10.04 10.44 0.98 0.98 48 -2.47 -3.14 13.05 13.45 0.98 0.98 72 -2.91 -3.71 17.49 17.82 0.97 0.97 96 -3.61 23.90 0.95 120 -4.06 30.51 0.92 144 -5.58 37.74 0.88 168 -7.50 45.74 0.83 192 -7.11 51.38 0.77 216 -7.00 54.98 0.75 240 -7.49 61.16 0.69 264 -7.22 66.66 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 398 12 UTC = 393 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.45 -2.44 12.52 12.84 0.98 0.98 48 -2.46 -2.81 17.16 17.46 0.98 0.98 72 -2.65 -2.92 23.80 24.48 0.98 0.98 96 -2.39 33.94 0.96 120 -2.40 44.44 0.93 144 -3.91 55.91 0.90 168 -5.43 67.14 0.86 192 -4.86 76.06 0.82 216 -3.61 85.90 0.77 240 -4.20 95.11 0.72 264 -3.28 102.27 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 414 12 UTC = 408 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.27 -4.57 18.60 18.39 0.98 0.98 48 -4.90 -4.54 24.55 25.21 0.98 0.98 72 -5.59 -4.78 32.31 33.97 0.98 0.97 96 -5.35 45.64 0.96 120 -6.27 59.77 0.93 144 -8.52 75.25 0.91 168 -10.01 90.20 0.87 192 -10.40 103.83 0.84 216 -8.17 118.85 0.78 240 -9.33 131.61 0.73 264 -10.06 141.51 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 412 12 UTC = 406 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.30 1.52 1.63 0.91 0.91 48 -0.24 -0.25 1.73 1.84 0.93 0.93 72 -0.21 -0.24 2.00 2.07 0.93 0.93 96 -0.17 2.39 0.91 120 -0.14 2.81 0.88 144 -0.10 3.33 0.84 168 -0.03 3.83 0.80 192 0.07 4.23 0.76 216 0.14 4.64 0.72 240 0.07 4.97 0.67 264 0.08 5.19 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 424 12 UTC = 418 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.01 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 48 0.04 0.05 1.20 1.18 0.95 0.95 72 0.05 0.07 1.49 1.49 0.94 0.94 96 0.08 1.91 0.91 120 0.08 2.35 0.88 144 0.06 2.83 0.85 168 0.06 3.27 0.81 192 0.04 3.63 0.77 216 0.12 3.95 0.72 240 0.10 4.31 0.66 264 0.10 4.55 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 452 12 UTC = 447 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.04 0.04 1.14 1.14 0.93 0.93 48 0.03 0.03 1.44 1.45 0.93 0.93 72 0.00 0.00 1.74 1.79 0.92 0.91 96 -0.10 2.19 0.88 120 -0.14 2.65 0.82 144 -0.16 3.09 0.78 168 -0.17 3.40 0.73 192 -0.15 3.60 0.70 216 -0.19 3.84 0.66 240 -0.19 4.05 0.62 264 -0.28 4.17 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 448 12 UTC = 443 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.73 -0.73 3.87 3.90 48 -0.68 -0.68 4.42 4.46 72 -0.72 -0.70 5.05 5.08 96 -0.79 5.95 120 -0.72 6.81 144 -0.67 7.78 168 -0.65 8.75 192 -0.64 9.36 216 -0.57 9.82 240 -0.55 10.30 264 -0.59 10.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 400 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.55 4.31 4.39 48 -0.71 -0.62 5.39 5.44 72 -0.82 -0.70 6.62 6.77 96 -0.73 8.28 120 -0.74 9.76 144 -0.67 11.26 168 -0.57 12.78 192 -0.54 13.75 216 -0.44 14.80 240 -0.40 15.74 264 -0.55 16.30 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 435 12 UTC = 430 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.56 5.56 5.57 48 -0.77 -0.71 7.15 7.36 72 -0.75 -0.74 8.70 9.07 96 -0.73 11.04 120 -0.72 13.11 144 -0.65 15.36 168 -0.47 17.60 192 -0.39 19.03 216 -0.09 20.94 240 -0.15 22.29 264 -0.34 23.28 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 432 12 UTC = 429 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.16 -2.50 9.68 9.52 0.97 0.97 48 -3.14 -3.81 12.81 12.57 0.97 0.98 72 -3.11 -3.81 16.68 16.54 0.95 0.96 96 -4.04 23.11 0.93 120 -4.13 30.12 0.88 144 -6.31 36.80 0.84 168 -5.27 44.98 0.78 192 -1.74 48.33 0.73 216 0.11 51.17 0.67 240 -0.80 58.00 0.62 264 -2.43 60.88 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 38 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.30 -6.82 13.11 13.35 0.97 0.98 48 -9.25 -8.81 18.35 19.59 0.97 0.97 72 -10.26 -9.09 24.92 26.49 0.95 0.95 96 -8.47 33.70 0.93 120 -8.88 44.07 0.90 144 -13.02 57.64 0.83 168 -13.66 68.00 0.79 192 -8.87 72.16 0.78 216 -3.11 71.95 0.73 240 -3.27 87.21 0.64 264 -3.55 90.84 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.03 -7.87 16.40 17.54 0.98 0.98 48 -11.84 -11.88 23.77 26.32 0.98 0.97 72 -14.75 -13.62 33.79 36.82 0.96 0.96 96 -12.65 48.66 0.94 120 -13.27 62.56 0.92 144 -17.51 81.84 0.86 168 -20.25 99.86 0.81 192 -14.92 102.50 0.79 216 -5.55 107.61 0.75 240 -5.56 128.98 0.67 264 -4.49 136.19 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.71 1.78 1.67 0.86 0.87 48 -0.93 -0.76 1.92 1.84 0.90 0.90 72 -0.97 -0.80 2.14 2.04 0.89 0.89 96 -0.70 2.29 0.88 120 -0.71 2.65 0.85 144 -0.80 3.08 0.79 168 -1.01 3.52 0.73 192 -0.92 3.80 0.69 216 -0.76 4.10 0.66 240 -0.69 4.46 0.63 264 -0.78 4.79 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 40 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 0.01 0.90 1.01 0.92 0.90 48 -0.07 -0.04 1.09 1.26 0.93 0.92 72 -0.14 -0.06 1.46 1.55 0.91 0.91 96 -0.03 1.94 0.87 120 -0.02 2.36 0.83 144 -0.11 2.77 0.79 168 -0.13 3.12 0.73 192 -0.08 3.29 0.75 216 0.11 3.40 0.68 240 0.14 3.82 0.63 264 0.29 4.08 0.54 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 -0.05 1.01 1.04 0.91 0.89 48 -0.08 -0.19 1.29 1.34 0.91 0.90 72 -0.17 -0.28 1.63 1.66 0.88 0.87 96 -0.24 1.95 0.84 120 -0.21 2.27 0.80 144 -0.08 2.56 0.76 168 -0.17 2.75 0.74 192 -0.17 2.99 0.69 216 -0.21 3.13 0.65 240 -0.23 3.30 0.59 264 -0.32 3.52 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.86 -0.78 4.59 4.39 48 -0.95 -0.79 5.02 4.74 72 -0.99 -0.79 5.50 5.21 96 -0.81 6.05 120 -0.62 6.87 144 -0.44 7.93 168 -0.58 8.68 192 -0.88 9.45 216 -1.18 9.86 240 -1.03 10.21 264 -0.89 10.02 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 39 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.36 -0.61 4.17 4.31 48 -0.40 -0.67 4.91 5.20 72 -0.56 -0.81 5.87 6.32 96 -0.94 7.56 120 -0.98 9.02 144 -0.85 10.48 168 -0.76 11.73 192 -0.67 12.58 216 -0.85 13.72 240 -0.80 14.24 264 -0.70 14.90 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND APRIL 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.46 -0.43 5.28 5.53 48 -0.57 -0.37 6.68 6.96 72 -0.58 -0.38 8.35 8.75 96 -0.37 10.83 120 -0.41 13.23 144 -0.03 15.79 168 -0.18 17.44 192 0.35 19.61 216 0.54 21.32 240 0.50 22.35 264 0.56 23.91 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 41 12 UTC = 37 ---------------------------------------------------------