VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.11 0.82 0.87 0.99 0.99 18.0 18.4 48 -0.20 -0.20 1.38 1.43 0.98 0.98 27.2 27.5 72 -0.24 -0.24 2.03 2.06 0.95 0.95 35.9 36.1 96 -0.28 2.88 0.90 45.1 120 -0.31 3.91 0.82 54.3 144 -0.33 4.84 0.72 62.0 168 -0.31 5.71 0.61 68.5 192 -0.31 6.50 0.49 74.3 216 -0.33 7.14 0.38 78.5 240 -0.33 7.64 0.30 81.4 264 -0.33 8.02 0.22 83.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.50 0.38 6.17 6.32 1.00 1.00 11.0 10.9 48 1.21 1.00 12.52 12.56 0.99 0.99 19.7 19.5 72 2.05 1.95 20.75 20.76 0.97 0.97 28.4 28.5 96 2.84 31.33 0.92 37.7 120 3.48 43.53 0.85 46.5 144 4.31 54.94 0.76 53.7 168 5.44 67.05 0.65 60.9 192 6.37 78.57 0.51 66.8 216 6.87 87.30 0.40 71.4 240 7.37 93.57 0.31 74.5 264 7.78 99.53 0.21 77.5 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.14 0.08 8.73 8.96 1.00 1.00 9.6 9.6 48 0.17 0.02 17.30 17.72 0.99 0.99 16.8 16.9 72 0.31 0.15 28.89 29.14 0.97 0.97 24.5 24.8 96 0.36 43.20 0.93 33.1 120 0.41 60.63 0.86 41.6 144 0.77 76.63 0.78 48.4 168 1.86 93.20 0.68 55.0 192 2.46 109.67 0.55 60.8 216 2.70 122.59 0.43 65.6 240 2.55 131.19 0.34 68.8 264 2.42 139.14 0.26 71.5 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.08 0.08 0.46 0.46 0.99 0.99 48 0.13 0.13 0.83 0.83 0.97 0.97 72 0.16 0.16 1.24 1.24 0.93 0.93 96 0.17 1.68 0.87 120 0.18 2.19 0.78 144 0.19 2.61 0.69 168 0.21 2.99 0.59 192 0.22 3.38 0.47 216 0.22 3.63 0.38 240 0.20 3.80 0.32 264 0.19 4.03 0.24 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.16 -0.16 0.64 0.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.29 -0.29 1.08 1.06 0.94 0.95 72 -0.38 -0.39 1.53 1.53 0.89 0.88 96 -0.45 2.02 0.80 120 -0.51 2.50 0.69 144 -0.56 2.89 0.58 168 -0.60 3.21 0.48 192 -0.63 3.46 0.39 216 -0.65 3.62 0.34 240 -0.71 3.79 0.28 264 -0.77 3.99 0.21 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.13 2.09 2.06 48 -0.27 -0.27 3.67 3.65 72 -0.37 -0.38 5.30 5.29 96 -0.46 7.05 120 -0.50 8.83 144 -0.51 10.32 168 -0.52 11.90 192 -0.54 13.24 216 -0.56 14.25 240 -0.62 14.83 264 -0.66 15.45 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.19 -0.10 3.41 3.36 48 -0.34 -0.25 5.58 5.62 72 -0.47 -0.40 7.97 7.98 96 -0.48 10.60 120 -0.56 13.51 144 -0.61 15.81 168 -0.68 18.10 192 -0.68 20.21 216 -0.67 22.12 240 -0.78 23.05 264 -0.83 23.85 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.26 0.22 2.94 3.06 0.98 0.97 25.3 25.6 48 0.35 0.27 4.42 4.77 0.95 0.94 32.8 32.8 72 0.25 0.16 5.47 5.82 0.92 0.91 37.2 37.1 96 -0.06 6.42 0.89 40.5 120 -0.46 7.13 0.86 43.6 144 -0.91 7.65 0.84 46.1 168 -1.40 8.47 0.81 48.7 192 -1.95 9.41 0.78 51.2 216 -2.36 10.56 0.73 53.4 240 -2.44 11.70 0.68 55.0 264 -2.66 12.47 0.66 56.4 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.89 4.18 4.48 0.98 0.98 17.3 17.8 48 -3.48 -3.61 7.28 7.64 0.96 0.95 24.1 24.4 72 -5.91 -5.91 10.14 10.34 0.93 0.92 29.0 29.1 96 -7.94 12.83 0.89 33.4 120 -9.58 15.37 0.84 37.4 144 -10.90 17.78 0.78 41.0 168 -12.17 20.32 0.71 44.4 192 -13.47 22.71 0.64 47.4 216 -14.09 24.85 0.58 50.3 240 -14.58 26.96 0.49 52.9 264 -15.09 28.82 0.42 55.2 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.10 0.39 0.40 0.96 0.96 48 -0.15 -0.13 0.59 0.60 0.91 0.92 72 -0.16 -0.15 0.72 0.74 0.86 0.87 96 -0.16 0.85 0.82 120 -0.15 0.95 0.78 144 -0.15 1.05 0.74 168 -0.14 1.13 0.69 192 -0.14 1.23 0.64 216 -0.14 1.30 0.60 240 -0.14 1.37 0.56 264 -0.15 1.46 0.50 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.30 0.43 0.44 0.94 0.94 48 -0.49 -0.51 0.68 0.69 0.86 0.86 72 -0.61 -0.63 0.84 0.85 0.78 0.79 96 -0.71 0.96 0.72 120 -0.77 1.06 0.66 144 -0.81 1.13 0.59 168 -0.84 1.19 0.54 192 -0.86 1.24 0.50 216 -0.86 1.27 0.45 240 -0.88 1.32 0.40 264 -0.89 1.36 0.34 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.18 -0.14 1.34 1.31 48 -0.27 -0.20 1.93 1.87 72 -0.30 -0.24 2.32 2.27 96 -0.24 2.59 120 -0.24 2.89 144 -0.22 3.18 168 -0.18 3.49 192 -0.14 3.78 216 -0.07 4.06 240 -0.06 4.25 264 -0.04 4.40 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.26 -0.27 2.80 2.83 48 -0.50 -0.50 4.23 4.25 72 -0.64 -0.64 5.34 5.36 96 -0.70 6.30 120 -0.75 7.17 144 -0.80 8.00 168 -0.83 8.80 192 -0.78 9.56 216 -0.69 10.31 240 -0.64 10.92 264 -0.61 11.55 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.05 0.07 0.99 1.01 1.00 1.00 13.0 13.2 48 0.08 0.10 2.04 2.05 0.98 0.98 23.6 23.7 72 0.08 0.10 3.29 3.28 0.95 0.95 32.9 33.1 96 0.12 4.59 0.91 41.5 120 0.23 5.86 0.85 49.0 144 0.32 7.02 0.79 54.7 168 0.37 8.47 0.69 60.8 192 0.43 9.72 0.60 65.4 216 0.54 10.69 0.52 68.2 240 0.59 11.47 0.46 70.2 264 0.65 11.97 0.43 71.3 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.32 -0.25 8.07 8.10 1.00 1.00 9.4 9.4 48 -0.74 -0.56 17.11 17.12 0.99 0.99 17.6 17.6 72 -1.01 -0.78 28.17 28.26 0.97 0.97 25.2 25.3 96 -0.87 41.25 0.93 32.6 120 -0.70 55.12 0.88 39.8 144 -0.68 69.11 0.81 46.1 168 -0.98 85.29 0.71 52.5 192 -1.08 99.42 0.62 57.6 216 -0.73 109.85 0.54 60.8 240 -0.64 120.41 0.44 63.9 264 -0.18 129.93 0.36 66.3 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.46 10.60 10.66 1.00 1.00 7.9 8.0 48 -1.16 -0.98 22.04 22.04 0.99 0.99 14.3 14.4 72 -2.00 -1.55 35.87 36.27 0.97 0.97 20.7 20.9 96 -2.43 53.23 0.94 27.6 120 -3.35 71.38 0.89 34.2 144 -4.12 90.19 0.83 40.4 168 -5.32 112.07 0.73 46.6 192 -5.84 132.72 0.64 51.9 216 -5.70 147.90 0.55 55.3 240 -5.60 161.65 0.47 58.2 264 -3.76 175.13 0.38 60.7 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.00 0.51 0.51 0.99 0.99 48 0.00 0.00 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 72 -0.01 0.00 1.44 1.45 0.93 0.93 96 -0.02 1.97 0.88 120 -0.05 2.46 0.81 144 -0.10 2.94 0.72 168 -0.13 3.49 0.61 192 -0.16 3.99 0.50 216 -0.18 4.28 0.42 240 -0.20 4.55 0.35 264 -0.13 4.85 0.28 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.07 0.60 0.60 0.99 0.99 48 -0.11 -0.12 1.06 1.07 0.95 0.95 72 -0.16 -0.16 1.52 1.52 0.91 0.91 96 -0.22 1.97 0.84 120 -0.27 2.42 0.76 144 -0.31 2.82 0.68 168 -0.36 3.19 0.59 192 -0.35 3.50 0.50 216 -0.31 3.69 0.46 240 -0.29 3.90 0.40 264 -0.23 4.04 0.36 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.01 -0.03 2.32 2.33 48 -0.03 -0.05 4.39 4.40 72 -0.07 -0.09 6.34 6.33 96 -0.15 8.28 120 -0.24 10.21 144 -0.32 12.01 168 -0.39 13.92 192 -0.35 15.57 216 -0.38 16.62 240 -0.39 17.54 264 -0.32 18.45 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.04 3.28 3.29 48 -0.12 -0.11 5.86 5.87 72 -0.23 -0.21 8.37 8.47 96 -0.32 11.23 120 -0.48 14.02 144 -0.58 16.80 168 -0.66 19.71 192 -0.60 22.42 216 -0.54 24.38 240 -0.49 25.74 264 -0.31 27.07 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.98 -1.67 7.99 7.88 0.97 0.97 48 -3.87 -2.75 10.90 11.14 0.97 0.97 72 -4.36 -4.01 14.76 15.78 0.96 0.95 96 -4.75 21.28 0.92 120 -4.19 28.35 0.88 144 -4.04 35.74 0.83 168 -2.99 41.45 0.78 192 -1.02 46.49 0.71 216 -2.12 50.71 0.66 240 -3.40 53.92 0.61 264 -6.12 58.32 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 85 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.64 -1.50 9.57 9.68 0.98 0.98 48 -0.44 -0.79 13.93 13.46 0.98 0.99 72 0.71 -0.78 20.86 21.58 0.97 0.97 96 -0.02 30.26 0.95 120 1.25 41.87 0.92 144 2.68 53.84 0.88 168 5.69 64.00 0.83 192 9.84 72.18 0.77 216 11.43 78.11 0.72 240 11.54 84.65 0.67 264 6.98 91.34 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.99 -1.49 14.58 14.40 0.98 0.98 48 0.80 0.46 21.76 21.57 0.98 0.98 72 2.79 0.61 33.71 33.43 0.97 0.97 96 1.87 48.19 0.95 120 3.15 65.75 0.91 144 4.40 83.08 0.88 168 9.33 98.64 0.83 192 14.25 111.51 0.77 216 18.27 120.89 0.72 240 20.40 131.54 0.66 264 13.28 140.97 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.40 1.48 1.70 0.90 0.89 48 -0.03 -0.35 1.71 1.92 0.93 0.92 72 0.05 -0.31 1.95 2.17 0.93 0.92 96 -0.23 2.51 0.91 120 -0.18 2.96 0.89 144 -0.02 3.54 0.85 168 0.18 4.06 0.81 192 0.38 4.53 0.77 216 0.53 4.92 0.73 240 0.63 5.06 0.69 264 0.45 5.36 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.13 0.12 0.87 0.88 0.92 0.92 48 0.28 0.22 1.11 1.10 0.94 0.94 72 0.37 0.29 1.44 1.40 0.93 0.94 96 0.36 1.80 0.91 120 0.39 2.21 0.87 144 0.42 2.66 0.84 168 0.52 2.98 0.81 192 0.61 3.29 0.76 216 0.73 3.50 0.71 240 0.79 3.73 0.65 264 0.68 3.99 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.05 1.00 1.01 0.90 0.90 48 -0.01 0.02 1.23 1.26 0.90 0.90 72 -0.04 -0.03 1.51 1.57 0.88 0.87 96 -0.06 1.84 0.85 120 -0.10 2.16 0.80 144 -0.17 2.44 0.74 168 -0.20 2.67 0.70 192 -0.19 2.93 0.63 216 -0.08 2.98 0.63 240 -0.04 3.12 0.62 264 -0.02 3.23 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 92 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.80 3.84 4.08 48 -0.29 -0.78 4.33 4.60 72 -0.30 -0.86 4.94 5.34 96 -0.93 6.18 120 -0.83 7.10 144 -0.69 8.02 168 -0.79 8.67 192 -0.99 9.52 216 -0.96 9.95 240 -1.04 10.27 264 -0.85 10.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 79 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.77 4.30 4.25 48 -1.01 -0.91 5.23 5.14 72 -1.13 -1.06 6.43 6.43 96 -1.15 7.87 120 -1.25 9.70 144 -1.31 11.13 168 -1.46 12.61 192 -1.67 13.60 216 -1.77 14.30 240 -1.75 15.07 264 -1.52 15.79 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.80 -0.93 6.25 6.10 48 -1.04 -1.33 7.85 7.75 72 -1.32 -1.66 10.19 10.05 96 -1.58 12.76 120 -1.70 15.95 144 -2.18 18.29 168 -2.56 20.85 192 -2.76 22.24 216 -3.32 23.75 240 -3.56 25.35 264 -3.79 25.85 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.19 -6.35 9.62 9.62 0.97 0.97 48 -8.19 -8.70 12.43 12.48 0.97 0.98 72 -8.85 -8.65 15.41 15.17 0.97 0.97 96 -10.25 19.95 0.95 120 -10.91 28.46 0.91 144 -11.11 37.13 0.88 168 -13.52 48.68 0.80 192 -16.33 58.11 0.71 216 -16.39 64.85 0.63 240 -10.23 67.63 0.61 264 -6.32 73.24 0.56 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.37 -5.49 11.03 10.54 0.98 0.98 48 -7.03 -6.16 15.23 14.00 0.98 0.98 72 -6.75 -5.42 19.49 19.52 0.98 0.98 96 -6.13 26.64 0.96 120 -6.90 42.08 0.91 144 -7.59 58.35 0.86 168 -8.83 74.82 0.80 192 -10.62 89.37 0.72 216 -12.38 96.60 0.66 240 -6.66 101.28 0.65 264 -4.19 111.90 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.79 -5.31 14.32 13.84 0.98 0.98 48 -6.02 -5.10 20.14 18.87 0.98 0.98 72 -5.45 -4.20 27.43 28.51 0.98 0.97 96 -5.14 40.16 0.96 120 -6.86 61.66 0.91 144 -8.51 85.65 0.84 168 -6.79 105.07 0.79 192 -8.54 123.50 0.70 216 -12.66 133.28 0.64 240 -8.09 146.28 0.63 264 -8.12 159.27 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 60 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 0.14 1.17 1.11 0.90 0.89 48 -0.28 0.20 1.28 1.27 0.93 0.92 72 -0.21 0.23 1.44 1.46 0.93 0.92 96 0.25 1.66 0.91 120 0.31 2.07 0.87 144 0.29 2.69 0.80 168 0.33 3.16 0.74 192 0.35 3.62 0.68 216 0.20 3.98 0.60 240 0.06 4.30 0.56 264 0.01 4.61 0.53 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.07 0.06 0.76 0.73 0.93 0.93 48 0.16 0.13 0.99 0.94 0.94 0.94 72 0.21 0.19 1.24 1.25 0.93 0.93 96 0.25 1.54 0.92 120 0.24 2.12 0.85 144 0.19 2.64 0.80 168 0.33 3.05 0.75 192 0.36 3.42 0.69 216 0.26 3.67 0.66 240 0.25 3.83 0.65 264 0.10 4.04 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.13 1.02 0.98 0.91 0.91 48 0.18 0.15 1.29 1.25 0.90 0.90 72 0.15 0.13 1.56 1.59 0.88 0.86 96 0.07 1.92 0.82 120 -0.01 2.41 0.76 144 -0.02 2.77 0.73 168 0.01 3.13 0.66 192 0.15 3.16 0.66 216 0.16 3.37 0.62 240 0.02 3.20 0.66 264 -0.14 3.62 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.37 3.74 3.65 48 -0.68 -0.37 4.05 3.97 72 -0.75 -0.47 4.56 4.47 96 -0.37 5.14 120 -0.48 6.07 144 -0.31 7.37 168 -0.24 8.43 192 -0.01 9.19 216 0.20 10.04 240 0.30 10.35 264 0.28 10.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.58 3.82 3.74 48 -0.55 -0.67 4.70 4.58 72 -0.61 -0.69 5.66 5.67 96 -0.63 7.02 120 -0.52 9.27 144 -0.05 11.55 168 0.38 13.41 192 0.60 14.93 216 0.71 16.11 240 0.40 16.68 264 0.40 17.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.67 -0.45 5.16 5.02 48 -0.60 -0.61 6.64 6.43 72 -0.76 -0.54 8.48 8.31 96 -0.51 11.02 120 -0.35 14.45 144 0.36 17.82 168 0.76 20.93 192 0.28 22.85 216 0.81 25.38 240 0.12 26.68 264 -0.07 27.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 63 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.78 -0.05 10.74 10.40 0.97 0.97 48 -1.02 -0.59 14.99 13.77 0.97 0.97 72 -1.52 -0.77 20.11 18.65 0.94 0.94 96 -1.11 24.58 0.90 120 -2.98 29.53 0.88 144 -5.32 34.64 0.82 168 -5.04 38.85 0.80 192 -0.07 43.47 0.73 216 0.83 48.66 0.66 240 0.68 52.68 0.63 264 1.59 57.12 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 120 12 UTC = 120 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.84 0.20 12.56 12.45 0.98 0.98 48 0.03 1.53 17.29 17.05 0.98 0.98 72 0.86 3.16 23.27 23.19 0.96 0.96 96 4.45 30.12 0.94 120 4.05 38.30 0.91 144 3.04 45.10 0.87 168 3.97 50.87 0.84 192 9.59 60.25 0.79 216 11.16 65.99 0.74 240 10.60 70.74 0.70 264 10.51 82.43 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 130 12 UTC = 129 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.20 -1.52 21.25 20.31 0.97 0.97 48 -2.32 0.89 27.02 27.16 0.97 0.97 72 -0.31 4.57 35.21 35.76 0.96 0.96 96 7.75 44.85 0.95 120 7.85 55.78 0.92 144 5.37 64.93 0.88 168 6.46 73.51 0.85 192 12.41 87.20 0.80 216 14.13 96.16 0.75 240 14.26 105.63 0.73 264 14.45 123.67 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 128 12 UTC = 127 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.51 1.82 1.93 0.91 0.91 48 -0.21 -0.39 2.07 2.24 0.92 0.91 72 -0.06 -0.28 2.36 2.50 0.91 0.91 96 -0.11 2.80 0.89 120 0.02 3.20 0.86 144 0.09 3.67 0.77 168 0.15 4.04 0.72 192 0.33 4.44 0.69 216 0.45 4.71 0.66 240 0.45 4.84 0.64 264 0.42 5.30 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 139 12 UTC = 138 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 0.10 1.05 1.05 0.93 0.93 48 0.10 0.18 1.32 1.30 0.94 0.94 72 0.13 0.24 1.64 1.61 0.92 0.92 96 0.28 1.93 0.91 120 0.30 2.35 0.87 144 0.30 2.66 0.81 168 0.36 2.99 0.76 192 0.37 3.27 0.72 216 0.43 3.53 0.68 240 0.43 3.85 0.65 264 0.40 4.28 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 157 12 UTC = 155 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.04 1.24 1.19 0.92 0.91 48 -0.11 -0.02 1.59 1.53 0.92 0.92 72 -0.05 0.09 1.96 1.90 0.89 0.88 96 0.21 2.33 0.86 120 0.25 2.67 0.82 144 0.24 2.90 0.77 168 0.26 3.18 0.74 192 0.24 3.51 0.68 216 0.23 3.66 0.66 240 0.18 3.84 0.65 264 0.19 4.07 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 154 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.00 -0.76 4.28 4.07 48 -1.07 -0.76 4.97 4.69 72 -1.14 -0.76 5.86 5.49 96 -0.78 6.33 120 -0.72 7.25 144 -0.83 7.87 168 -0.87 8.31 192 -0.86 8.92 216 -0.87 9.32 240 -0.65 9.86 264 -0.93 10.27 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 132 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.60 4.47 4.53 48 -0.87 -0.81 5.64 5.57 72 -1.04 -0.97 6.86 6.67 96 -1.10 7.84 120 -0.96 9.18 144 -0.96 10.11 168 -0.92 11.11 192 -1.22 12.39 216 -1.31 12.78 240 -1.26 13.29 264 -1.38 14.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 153 12 UTC = 150 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.48 6.31 6.24 48 -1.02 -0.79 8.26 8.27 72 -1.05 -0.90 9.83 10.16 96 -0.75 11.82 120 -0.81 13.50 144 -0.82 14.75 168 -0.75 16.64 192 -0.88 18.51 216 -1.23 19.71 240 -0.95 21.31 264 -0.68 22.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 150 12 UTC = 148 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.52 -2.97 6.38 7.15 0.99 0.98 48 -0.61 -2.64 9.44 11.11 0.96 0.97 72 -0.04 -1.37 12.96 17.52 0.97 0.96 96 -1.31 24.68 0.93 120 -1.35 28.70 0.92 144 -2.64 41.96 0.87 168 -1.93 47.47 0.75 192 -1.14 57.34 0.64 216 -0.93 61.06 0.64 240 -0.71 64.39 0.59 264 4.98 64.27 0.66 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 24 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.30 -8.03 10.62 12.26 0.98 0.99 48 -5.46 -8.29 13.61 16.89 0.98 0.98 72 -5.30 -7.11 18.37 24.26 0.97 0.97 96 -6.97 35.63 0.95 120 -5.66 40.34 0.93 144 -7.73 52.06 0.88 168 -7.94 62.43 0.72 192 -11.32 85.71 0.65 216 -9.83 86.38 0.70 240 -11.71 94.55 0.62 264 -4.15 92.12 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 24 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.07 -6.17 13.56 14.03 0.98 0.99 48 -4.38 -7.03 18.38 21.10 0.98 0.99 72 -5.26 -6.49 24.31 32.19 0.98 0.97 96 -7.63 47.03 0.95 120 -6.29 57.15 0.92 144 -6.30 71.53 0.86 168 -11.00 85.89 0.77 192 -15.79 126.11 0.65 216 -13.59 132.27 0.64 240 -12.96 135.45 0.64 264 -1.67 136.10 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 24 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.52 -0.54 1.25 1.15 0.76 0.90 48 -0.58 -0.56 1.38 1.31 0.86 0.92 72 -0.65 -0.51 1.55 1.56 0.80 0.91 96 -0.47 1.93 0.92 120 -0.49 2.08 0.87 144 -0.53 2.50 0.79 168 -0.54 2.74 0.60 192 -0.73 3.52 0.53 216 -0.84 3.85 0.51 240 -0.76 4.08 0.52 264 -1.01 3.79 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.13 0.92 0.95 0.90 0.88 48 0.17 0.17 1.09 1.17 0.92 0.89 72 0.22 0.14 1.23 1.35 0.90 0.92 96 0.10 1.68 0.84 120 0.10 1.96 0.82 144 0.05 2.25 0.72 168 0.00 2.68 0.63 192 -0.12 3.74 0.52 216 -0.09 3.67 0.46 240 -0.22 3.79 0.47 264 0.03 3.95 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.05 0.90 1.14 0.93 0.91 48 0.02 -0.05 1.17 1.41 0.86 0.91 72 -0.09 -0.08 1.39 1.58 0.91 0.90 96 -0.14 2.13 0.80 120 -0.30 2.32 0.78 144 -0.25 2.42 0.78 168 -0.50 2.86 0.65 192 -0.35 3.09 0.56 216 -0.36 3.37 0.59 240 -0.14 3.49 0.59 264 0.02 3.84 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 25 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.62 3.82 3.64 48 -0.54 -0.43 4.22 4.16 72 -0.58 -0.42 4.97 4.93 96 -0.33 5.60 120 -0.27 6.36 144 -0.26 7.89 168 0.01 9.03 192 -0.07 10.23 216 -0.05 10.08 240 0.15 11.59 264 -0.25 11.20 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.41 4.23 4.34 48 -0.51 -0.43 4.86 5.43 72 -0.68 -0.63 5.80 6.52 96 -0.90 7.17 120 -0.88 8.50 144 -0.49 10.45 168 -0.33 12.14 192 -0.56 14.20 216 -0.31 15.02 240 -1.31 16.78 264 -1.37 16.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.64 -1.20 5.52 5.87 48 -0.97 -1.52 6.71 7.54 72 -1.19 -1.68 8.15 8.96 96 -2.01 10.79 120 -2.02 13.46 144 -1.59 16.78 168 -2.46 18.67 192 -1.74 21.97 216 -1.18 24.28 240 -1.68 27.22 264 -1.23 29.12 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.17 -3.82 9.39 9.84 0.71 0.69 48 -4.31 -4.26 9.89 10.30 0.82 0.78 72 -4.62 -5.13 10.40 10.91 0.80 0.77 96 -6.10 11.63 0.73 120 -6.84 12.33 0.73 144 -7.53 13.00 0.74 168 -7.98 13.52 0.71 192 -8.12 14.07 0.66 216 -8.43 14.87 0.63 240 -8.42 15.69 0.61 264 -8.75 16.78 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 52 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.43 -6.35 11.95 11.76 0.61 0.59 48 -8.02 -6.81 12.60 12.27 0.74 0.71 72 -8.98 -7.87 13.41 13.13 0.75 0.74 96 -9.15 14.13 0.71 120 -10.18 15.21 0.71 144 -11.19 16.15 0.72 168 -11.92 17.12 0.70 192 -12.31 17.80 0.65 216 -12.96 18.69 0.63 240 -13.31 19.34 0.62 264 -13.46 20.23 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 54 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -8.48 -7.27 14.76 14.34 0.68 0.64 48 -10.91 -9.15 16.79 16.24 0.78 0.72 72 -13.26 -10.96 19.00 18.11 0.81 0.75 96 -13.23 20.36 0.73 120 -15.08 22.37 0.72 144 -16.61 24.18 0.71 168 -17.70 25.96 0.70 192 -18.58 27.65 0.66 216 -19.66 29.46 0.63 240 -20.31 30.82 0.61 264 -20.75 32.18 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 53 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.60 -0.52 1.15 1.10 0.43 0.48 48 -0.68 -0.55 1.21 1.14 0.52 0.54 72 -0.72 -0.57 1.24 1.17 0.56 0.61 96 -0.59 1.19 0.63 120 -0.60 1.21 0.61 144 -0.60 1.25 0.58 168 -0.60 1.29 0.56 192 -0.61 1.33 0.57 216 -0.60 1.33 0.56 240 -0.60 1.36 0.52 264 -0.57 1.40 0.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 87 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.23 0.18 0.78 0.81 0.53 0.53 48 0.23 0.19 0.81 0.84 0.60 0.58 72 0.18 0.18 0.83 0.88 0.61 0.59 96 0.14 0.92 0.57 120 0.10 0.97 0.54 144 0.07 1.01 0.51 168 0.06 1.04 0.53 192 0.03 1.06 0.51 216 0.01 1.10 0.46 240 0.00 1.15 0.45 264 0.01 1.16 0.46 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 61 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.29 -0.32 0.66 0.70 0.56 0.60 48 -0.46 -0.48 0.80 0.85 0.60 0.62 72 -0.53 -0.54 0.88 0.94 0.62 0.62 96 -0.58 1.01 0.59 120 -0.62 1.08 0.57 144 -0.66 1.15 0.55 168 -0.70 1.22 0.53 192 -0.73 1.26 0.53 216 -0.74 1.30 0.52 240 -0.76 1.37 0.49 264 -0.79 1.41 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 60 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.53 3.09 3.03 48 -0.43 -0.54 3.30 3.21 72 -0.47 -0.53 3.48 3.34 96 -0.54 3.47 120 -0.55 3.61 144 -0.55 3.79 168 -0.51 4.00 192 -0.49 4.23 216 -0.45 4.37 240 -0.34 4.57 264 -0.25 4.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 51 12 UTC = 78 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.06 -0.92 3.45 3.40 48 -1.23 -1.06 3.72 3.72 72 -1.38 -1.20 3.95 3.92 96 -1.25 4.17 120 -1.29 4.47 144 -1.30 4.72 168 -1.25 5.02 192 -1.32 5.33 216 -1.36 5.51 240 -1.28 5.75 264 -1.24 6.13 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.80 4.48 4.72 48 -1.09 -1.15 5.25 5.74 72 -1.20 -1.38 6.12 6.51 96 -1.46 7.20 120 -1.48 7.91 144 -1.57 8.47 168 -1.64 9.02 192 -1.72 9.66 216 -1.72 10.33 240 -1.67 10.74 264 -1.59 11.15 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 50 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.29 -3.09 10.01 10.23 0.98 0.97 48 -4.16 -4.29 13.42 13.54 0.98 0.97 72 -4.43 -4.43 17.82 17.75 0.96 0.96 96 -4.75 23.65 0.94 120 -5.14 31.25 0.91 144 -5.70 38.60 0.87 168 -5.57 45.57 0.83 192 -4.46 52.78 0.76 216 -4.58 58.18 0.70 240 -3.99 62.63 0.67 264 -3.51 66.72 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 398 12 UTC = 390 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.24 -2.68 12.06 12.12 0.98 0.98 48 -2.35 -2.13 16.59 16.44 0.98 0.98 72 -1.36 -1.00 23.29 23.44 0.97 0.97 96 0.15 32.37 0.95 120 0.78 44.54 0.92 144 1.29 55.77 0.88 168 2.73 66.12 0.84 192 4.93 77.30 0.78 216 5.55 84.11 0.74 240 6.23 90.68 0.71 264 6.05 99.33 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 413 12 UTC = 403 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.95 -3.94 18.13 18.07 0.98 0.98 48 -3.39 -2.86 24.07 24.41 0.98 0.98 72 -1.87 -1.35 33.47 34.15 0.97 0.97 96 0.54 46.34 0.95 120 1.22 62.99 0.92 144 1.13 79.11 0.88 168 3.39 93.42 0.84 192 5.81 108.66 0.79 216 6.67 118.63 0.75 240 8.08 129.24 0.71 264 7.01 142.15 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 412 12 UTC = 402 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.31 -0.34 1.54 1.65 0.90 0.90 48 -0.23 -0.26 1.77 1.90 0.92 0.92 72 -0.12 -0.18 2.02 2.15 0.92 0.91 96 -0.06 2.46 0.90 120 0.06 2.89 0.87 144 0.17 3.39 0.82 168 0.28 3.82 0.78 192 0.40 4.24 0.74 216 0.47 4.56 0.70 240 0.47 4.76 0.67 264 0.45 5.15 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 423 12 UTC = 416 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.08 0.93 0.94 0.93 0.93 48 0.15 0.16 1.18 1.17 0.94 0.94 72 0.20 0.21 1.51 1.49 0.93 0.93 96 0.27 1.87 0.91 120 0.30 2.34 0.86 144 0.31 2.75 0.82 168 0.39 3.12 0.78 192 0.42 3.45 0.73 216 0.46 3.66 0.70 240 0.47 3.89 0.67 264 0.43 4.20 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 452 12 UTC = 445 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 0.00 1.12 1.10 0.92 0.92 48 -0.05 -0.03 1.43 1.41 0.91 0.92 72 -0.06 -0.04 1.80 1.80 0.89 0.88 96 -0.04 2.21 0.85 120 -0.07 2.62 0.80 144 -0.09 2.97 0.75 168 -0.11 3.27 0.71 192 -0.13 3.52 0.67 216 -0.12 3.65 0.65 240 -0.15 3.78 0.64 264 -0.19 4.00 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 448 12 UTC = 441 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.66 3.91 3.87 48 -0.77 -0.67 4.46 4.40 72 -0.81 -0.70 5.19 5.10 96 -0.71 5.95 120 -0.71 6.89 144 -0.70 7.79 168 -0.72 8.48 192 -0.67 9.22 216 -0.59 9.75 240 -0.49 10.15 264 -0.59 10.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 395 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.69 -0.67 4.17 4.18 48 -0.85 -0.83 5.21 5.18 72 -0.96 -0.96 6.49 6.41 96 -1.01 7.86 120 -1.01 9.55 144 -0.98 10.92 168 -0.96 12.37 192 -1.07 13.67 216 -1.05 14.33 240 -1.05 14.90 264 -1.04 15.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 437 12 UTC = 429 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.68 -0.61 5.69 5.65 48 -0.87 -0.91 7.38 7.42 72 -0.98 -1.03 9.31 9.41 96 -0.96 11.71 120 -1.00 14.32 144 -0.95 16.45 168 -1.08 18.82 192 -1.28 20.71 216 -1.41 22.26 240 -1.48 23.44 264 -1.40 24.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 433 12 UTC = 427 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.90 -1.76 9.83 10.04 0.98 0.98 48 -1.51 -2.48 13.11 13.59 0.98 0.98 72 -1.19 -2.46 18.16 18.67 0.96 0.96 96 -2.79 25.06 0.93 120 -2.38 29.72 0.91 144 -2.85 37.68 0.86 168 -3.93 46.24 0.77 192 -6.15 53.89 0.71 216 -5.16 59.73 0.65 240 -4.94 66.10 0.58 264 -5.85 67.92 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.59 -7.81 13.40 13.85 0.98 0.98 48 -7.36 -9.05 17.78 18.60 0.97 0.98 72 -7.20 -9.21 23.49 25.24 0.96 0.96 96 -9.73 33.43 0.93 120 -8.49 40.39 0.91 144 -8.69 49.80 0.86 168 -10.73 61.52 0.81 192 -14.93 72.12 0.74 216 -13.52 81.03 0.71 240 -12.34 87.58 0.63 264 -11.21 96.30 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 34 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -7.79 -9.86 17.26 18.39 0.98 0.98 48 -7.63 -11.38 24.16 25.67 0.98 0.98 72 -8.37 -11.11 31.97 34.95 0.97 0.96 96 -11.03 46.16 0.94 120 -9.98 57.54 0.91 144 -9.81 68.24 0.88 168 -12.26 85.68 0.84 192 -18.20 102.92 0.76 216 -17.42 116.94 0.73 240 -15.17 123.23 0.67 264 -11.14 138.95 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.84 -0.75 1.79 1.68 0.84 0.85 48 -0.87 -0.77 1.90 1.84 0.89 0.89 72 -0.90 -0.77 2.08 2.07 0.89 0.88 96 -0.78 2.38 0.86 120 -0.82 2.65 0.80 144 -0.77 3.02 0.78 168 -0.87 3.47 0.73 192 -0.97 3.85 0.70 216 -0.99 4.02 0.65 240 -0.77 4.16 0.60 264 -0.72 4.42 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.02 -0.15 1.00 0.94 0.92 0.91 48 0.05 -0.14 1.22 1.19 0.92 0.92 72 0.09 -0.13 1.46 1.46 0.91 0.90 96 -0.12 1.76 0.87 120 -0.05 2.05 0.85 144 -0.05 2.28 0.82 168 -0.09 2.80 0.76 192 -0.23 3.33 0.68 216 -0.20 3.52 0.66 240 -0.24 3.64 0.60 264 -0.15 4.08 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 35 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.20 0.09 1.04 1.03 0.91 0.90 48 0.16 0.04 1.33 1.29 0.91 0.89 72 0.12 0.06 1.61 1.57 0.90 0.86 96 0.09 1.89 0.80 120 0.08 2.13 0.77 144 0.11 2.28 0.75 168 0.16 2.69 0.67 192 0.28 2.78 0.67 216 0.20 3.09 0.60 240 0.33 3.23 0.59 264 0.51 3.63 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 35 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.77 -0.70 4.60 4.53 48 -0.76 -0.66 4.93 5.00 72 -0.83 -0.73 5.60 5.64 96 -0.73 6.15 120 -0.79 6.65 144 -0.71 7.67 168 -0.50 8.73 192 -0.21 9.61 216 -0.60 9.77 240 -0.38 10.57 264 -0.37 10.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.48 4.46 4.38 48 -0.48 -0.41 5.32 5.31 72 -0.60 -0.53 6.53 6.45 96 -0.41 7.64 120 -0.33 8.82 144 -0.35 10.15 168 -0.21 11.92 192 -0.02 13.34 216 -0.03 13.93 240 -0.68 14.86 264 -0.42 15.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 36 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND MAY 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.45 -0.05 5.73 5.95 48 -0.47 0.10 7.45 7.72 72 -0.68 0.07 8.86 9.53 96 0.48 11.37 120 0.42 13.85 144 0.35 15.53 168 0.33 18.13 192 1.06 20.48 216 1.14 21.56 240 1.17 23.63 264 1.46 25.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 35 12 UTC = 37 ---------------------------------------------------------