VERIFICATION TO WMO STANDARDS ---------------------------------------- JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY JUNE 2016 ----------------------------------------------- GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (TL959,L100) ---------------------------------------- TABLE 1.1 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.12 0.81 0.80 0.99 0.99 18.6 18.8 48 -0.23 -0.21 1.32 1.36 0.97 0.97 28.2 28.3 72 -0.27 -0.25 1.96 1.95 0.94 0.94 37.3 37.1 96 -0.28 2.65 0.90 45.7 120 -0.29 3.49 0.82 54.3 144 -0.30 4.34 0.73 61.5 168 -0.30 4.95 0.65 66.6 192 -0.25 5.45 0.57 70.1 216 -0.18 5.99 0.49 73.2 240 -0.18 6.51 0.40 76.0 264 -0.18 6.70 0.36 77.8 TABLE 1.2 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.28 6.04 6.04 1.00 1.00 12.0 11.9 48 0.84 0.97 11.98 12.09 0.99 0.99 21.3 21.1 72 1.90 2.01 20.10 20.04 0.96 0.96 30.6 30.5 96 3.07 29.23 0.91 39.5 120 4.06 39.49 0.84 48.1 144 4.93 50.18 0.75 55.8 168 5.77 58.53 0.67 61.5 192 7.14 65.43 0.59 66.1 216 8.58 71.44 0.51 69.3 240 9.39 78.57 0.41 73.2 264 9.90 83.22 0.34 75.8 TABLE 1.3 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.28 0.41 8.57 8.64 1.00 1.00 11.2 11.2 48 0.62 0.83 17.00 17.01 0.99 0.99 19.6 19.6 72 1.34 1.51 28.26 28.30 0.96 0.96 28.6 28.6 96 2.51 41.25 0.92 37.1 120 3.52 55.33 0.86 45.1 144 4.47 70.90 0.77 52.6 168 5.51 84.64 0.67 58.5 192 6.88 95.52 0.59 63.2 216 8.55 103.60 0.52 66.2 240 9.81 113.01 0.43 69.8 264 10.66 121.48 0.34 72.4 TABLE 1.4 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.11 0.12 0.45 0.45 0.99 0.99 48 0.18 0.19 0.79 0.78 0.96 0.96 72 0.22 0.23 1.14 1.14 0.92 0.92 96 0.27 1.49 0.85 120 0.28 1.86 0.77 144 0.29 2.23 0.67 168 0.31 2.58 0.56 192 0.32 2.85 0.47 216 0.34 3.02 0.41 240 0.35 3.19 0.35 264 0.36 3.35 0.29 TABLE 1.5 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.16 0.65 0.64 0.98 0.98 48 -0.26 -0.26 1.10 1.10 0.94 0.94 72 -0.33 -0.33 1.59 1.58 0.88 0.88 96 -0.37 2.02 0.80 120 -0.38 2.44 0.70 144 -0.39 2.77 0.62 168 -0.37 3.05 0.54 192 -0.40 3.24 0.49 216 -0.39 3.34 0.47 240 -0.37 3.50 0.42 264 -0.36 3.55 0.40 TABLE 1.6 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.12 -0.12 1.97 1.96 48 -0.22 -0.24 3.47 3.44 72 -0.31 -0.33 4.99 4.95 96 -0.41 6.45 120 -0.47 7.95 144 -0.48 9.33 168 -0.48 10.40 192 -0.51 11.23 216 -0.56 11.83 240 -0.55 12.64 264 -0.57 13.22 TABLE 1.7 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90N) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.11 -0.12 3.35 3.31 48 -0.22 -0.23 5.64 5.59 72 -0.31 -0.32 8.06 8.04 96 -0.37 10.44 120 -0.40 12.82 144 -0.44 15.03 168 -0.45 17.03 192 -0.56 18.47 216 -0.56 19.48 240 -0.53 20.62 264 -0.50 21.61 TABLE 2.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.15 0.14 2.76 2.79 0.97 0.98 22.4 22.8 48 0.18 0.13 3.98 4.24 0.95 0.94 29.4 29.6 72 0.06 -0.02 4.97 5.43 0.92 0.91 34.3 34.4 96 -0.06 6.28 0.88 38.0 120 -0.18 7.08 0.84 40.6 144 -0.25 8.15 0.79 43.2 168 -0.34 9.38 0.73 45.9 192 -0.27 10.26 0.70 47.6 216 -0.51 10.88 0.66 49.6 240 -0.86 11.29 0.63 51.6 264 -1.02 11.79 0.60 53.0 TABLE 2.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.96 -1.33 4.29 4.42 0.98 0.98 20.4 20.3 48 -3.70 -4.06 7.49 7.77 0.96 0.96 28.1 28.1 72 -5.87 -6.08 10.44 10.51 0.93 0.94 33.5 33.4 96 -7.61 12.66 0.91 37.9 120 -8.69 14.75 0.87 42.2 144 -9.24 16.54 0.83 46.6 168 -9.42 18.38 0.78 50.6 192 -9.35 19.66 0.74 53.3 216 -9.24 21.09 0.68 55.8 240 -9.25 22.66 0.62 58.8 264 -9.37 23.89 0.58 60.9 TABLE 2.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.10 -0.10 0.39 0.40 0.96 0.96 48 -0.12 -0.12 0.60 0.59 0.91 0.92 72 -0.14 -0.14 0.74 0.74 0.85 0.87 96 -0.14 0.86 0.82 120 -0.14 0.94 0.79 144 -0.14 1.03 0.75 168 -0.15 1.13 0.71 192 -0.17 1.24 0.66 216 -0.17 1.32 0.62 240 -0.16 1.38 0.57 264 -0.14 1.44 0.54 TABLE 2.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.30 0.42 0.43 0.93 0.93 48 -0.47 -0.50 0.65 0.67 0.86 0.86 72 -0.59 -0.62 0.80 0.82 0.80 0.79 96 -0.69 0.92 0.73 120 -0.74 1.00 0.67 144 -0.75 1.05 0.62 168 -0.76 1.09 0.56 192 -0.76 1.13 0.51 216 -0.76 1.16 0.47 240 -0.76 1.18 0.43 264 -0.76 1.20 0.38 TABLE 2.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.15 -0.13 1.36 1.35 48 -0.23 -0.18 1.99 1.98 72 -0.25 -0.21 2.48 2.47 96 -0.23 2.86 120 -0.22 3.18 144 -0.19 3.48 168 -0.12 3.81 192 -0.09 4.03 216 -0.10 4.27 240 -0.12 4.47 264 -0.10 4.62 TABLE 2.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20N-20S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.17 -0.25 2.90 2.92 48 -0.37 -0.42 4.25 4.30 72 -0.48 -0.51 5.26 5.25 96 -0.57 6.12 120 -0.59 6.95 144 -0.62 7.84 168 -0.65 8.71 192 -0.70 9.40 216 -0.75 9.95 240 -0.80 10.57 264 -0.82 11.16 TABLE 3.1 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (hPa) (hPa) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.10 0.09 1.04 1.06 1.00 1.00 12.8 13.0 48 0.16 0.15 2.15 2.15 0.98 0.98 23.4 23.6 72 0.18 0.19 3.38 3.40 0.95 0.95 32.8 33.0 96 0.19 4.73 0.91 41.3 120 0.17 6.38 0.84 49.3 144 0.15 7.83 0.76 55.7 168 0.12 9.02 0.67 61.1 192 0.00 10.15 0.58 65.0 216 -0.01 11.07 0.50 68.0 240 0.03 11.73 0.45 70.2 264 0.05 12.46 0.38 71.4 TABLE 3.2 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.34 -0.54 8.49 8.39 1.00 1.00 9.7 9.6 48 -0.86 -1.03 18.03 17.86 0.99 0.99 18.2 18.1 72 -1.39 -1.51 29.44 29.52 0.97 0.97 26.1 26.3 96 -1.97 43.04 0.93 33.9 120 -2.41 59.69 0.87 41.8 144 -2.64 75.47 0.80 48.3 168 -2.39 89.17 0.72 53.4 192 -3.15 102.30 0.62 57.8 216 -3.63 113.09 0.54 61.2 240 -3.56 120.03 0.48 63.4 264 -3.40 127.84 0.42 65.3 TABLE 3.3 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. SKILL SCORE PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.61 -0.83 11.01 10.92 1.00 1.00 7.8 7.7 48 -1.82 -2.02 22.73 22.93 0.99 0.99 14.0 14.1 72 -2.74 -2.86 37.48 37.52 0.97 0.97 20.6 20.7 96 -3.67 54.53 0.94 27.3 120 -4.50 75.92 0.89 34.4 144 -4.80 96.49 0.82 40.5 168 -4.79 116.49 0.74 45.8 192 -5.33 134.94 0.65 50.1 216 -5.37 150.52 0.56 53.7 240 -5.47 161.59 0.50 56.5 264 -6.05 170.23 0.44 58.2 TABLE 3.4 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.53 0.53 0.99 0.99 48 -0.05 -0.05 1.02 1.02 0.97 0.97 72 -0.07 -0.07 1.52 1.52 0.93 0.93 96 -0.09 2.03 0.88 120 -0.12 2.64 0.80 144 -0.10 3.16 0.71 168 -0.09 3.60 0.62 192 -0.11 4.04 0.52 216 -0.10 4.40 0.43 240 -0.11 4.67 0.36 264 -0.13 4.81 0.32 TABLE 3.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE ANOM. CORR. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.05 -0.05 0.60 0.61 0.98 0.98 48 -0.10 -0.11 1.09 1.08 0.95 0.95 72 -0.13 -0.12 1.54 1.55 0.89 0.89 96 -0.12 2.02 0.82 120 -0.10 2.51 0.72 144 -0.12 2.89 0.63 168 -0.12 3.19 0.54 192 -0.09 3.52 0.45 216 -0.07 3.76 0.38 240 -0.05 3.95 0.32 264 -0.07 4.11 0.27 TABLE 3.6 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 2.45 2.45 48 -0.02 -0.05 4.65 4.63 72 -0.04 -0.06 6.71 6.80 96 -0.07 8.88 120 -0.05 11.10 144 0.00 13.07 168 0.00 14.69 192 0.01 16.19 216 0.10 17.35 240 0.12 18.11 264 0.09 18.75 TABLE 3.7 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS (20-90S) ---------------------------------------------------------- 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.07 -0.07 3.31 3.29 48 -0.13 -0.15 5.83 5.87 72 -0.18 -0.21 8.62 8.65 96 -0.23 11.47 120 -0.21 14.57 144 -0.19 17.42 168 -0.20 20.13 192 -0.20 22.48 216 -0.20 24.41 240 -0.33 25.91 264 -0.43 26.99 TABLE 4.1 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.95 -1.29 7.64 7.52 0.98 0.98 48 -2.84 -0.92 10.43 10.21 0.97 0.97 72 -2.37 -1.34 14.44 14.71 0.95 0.96 96 -1.54 19.94 0.92 120 -1.87 26.43 0.87 144 -0.29 34.05 0.80 168 -0.01 38.25 0.76 192 -0.48 39.40 0.75 216 0.19 45.96 0.68 240 0.37 51.71 0.63 264 -2.29 52.03 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 83 12 UTC = 84 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.2 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.14 -1.87 8.90 8.62 0.98 0.98 48 -0.55 -0.04 12.87 12.23 0.98 0.98 72 1.01 0.83 18.41 18.94 0.97 0.97 96 1.84 26.75 0.94 120 2.69 35.61 0.92 144 4.84 44.97 0.88 168 4.99 52.82 0.84 192 4.48 55.93 0.84 216 5.63 64.23 0.81 240 7.32 73.30 0.76 264 5.94 77.75 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.3 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.53 -2.11 12.80 12.51 0.98 0.98 48 -0.82 -0.08 20.50 19.90 0.98 0.98 72 0.49 0.27 29.62 30.73 0.97 0.96 96 1.23 43.78 0.94 120 1.95 57.18 0.92 144 5.45 73.81 0.87 168 5.00 87.42 0.83 192 5.48 95.50 0.82 216 8.20 102.03 0.82 240 12.18 115.10 0.78 264 12.48 126.51 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 90 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.4 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.20 -0.53 1.42 1.61 0.89 0.89 48 -0.18 -0.52 1.66 1.77 0.91 0.91 72 -0.16 -0.49 1.88 1.99 0.91 0.90 96 -0.41 2.32 0.87 120 -0.32 2.72 0.84 144 -0.27 3.22 0.80 168 -0.21 3.59 0.77 192 -0.11 3.73 0.78 216 -0.03 3.97 0.76 240 0.14 4.32 0.73 264 0.15 4.49 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 82 12 UTC = 83 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.5 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.18 0.86 0.85 0.89 0.89 48 0.33 0.29 1.08 1.05 0.92 0.92 72 0.36 0.31 1.30 1.31 0.91 0.90 96 0.32 1.57 0.88 120 0.35 1.90 0.85 144 0.38 2.27 0.81 168 0.30 2.59 0.77 192 0.30 2.84 0.75 216 0.36 2.94 0.75 240 0.45 3.16 0.73 264 0.57 3.42 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.6 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.02 -0.02 0.96 0.95 0.88 0.89 48 -0.04 -0.04 1.21 1.21 0.89 0.89 72 -0.04 -0.05 1.47 1.45 0.86 0.86 96 -0.04 1.74 0.80 120 -0.06 2.11 0.74 144 -0.03 2.36 0.68 168 0.02 2.58 0.65 192 0.00 2.76 0.63 216 0.08 2.79 0.65 240 0.21 2.93 0.64 264 0.27 3.03 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 89 12 UTC = 91 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.7 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.53 -0.99 3.58 3.97 48 -0.52 -0.92 4.12 4.53 72 -0.48 -0.93 4.68 5.12 96 -1.01 5.96 120 -1.04 6.91 144 -1.15 7.92 168 -1.32 8.53 192 -1.45 8.89 216 -1.34 9.43 240 -1.13 9.93 264 -1.13 9.95 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 80 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.8 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.61 3.91 3.86 48 -0.63 -0.63 4.78 4.69 72 -0.55 -0.63 5.83 5.88 96 -0.73 7.19 120 -0.81 8.78 144 -0.89 10.28 168 -0.95 11.17 192 -0.98 11.60 216 -1.02 12.28 240 -1.03 13.57 264 -0.92 14.14 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 88 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4.9 NORTH AMERICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.66 -0.71 5.80 5.62 48 -0.70 -0.83 7.43 7.29 72 -0.79 -0.81 9.56 9.32 96 -0.90 11.68 120 -0.99 14.18 144 -1.00 17.28 168 -1.10 19.26 192 -1.15 20.43 216 -0.85 21.36 240 -1.27 22.64 264 -1.07 23.93 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 87 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.1 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.40 -5.25 9.43 8.88 0.96 0.96 48 -9.86 -9.38 13.40 13.02 0.97 0.97 72 -11.87 -11.17 17.24 16.46 0.95 0.95 96 -8.31 18.99 0.94 120 -2.73 23.62 0.90 144 2.40 29.04 0.84 168 2.81 34.10 0.81 192 0.60 37.88 0.78 216 -7.21 48.54 0.67 240 -9.65 50.17 0.66 264 -4.84 51.88 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 68 12 UTC = 62 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.2 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.82 -3.71 10.39 9.25 0.97 0.97 48 -7.87 -6.53 14.73 13.08 0.98 0.98 72 -8.56 -7.15 19.37 18.14 0.97 0.97 96 -2.39 23.70 0.96 120 4.73 33.33 0.94 144 11.14 45.29 0.89 168 12.14 54.88 0.84 192 9.87 65.49 0.77 216 2.25 76.02 0.73 240 -1.58 83.00 0.69 264 1.55 87.01 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.3 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.64 -3.01 13.00 13.28 0.98 0.98 48 -5.69 -5.52 20.05 18.67 0.98 0.98 72 -6.16 -6.13 27.42 26.98 0.97 0.97 96 -0.40 36.40 0.96 120 8.35 51.28 0.94 144 13.34 69.67 0.89 168 15.44 87.97 0.82 192 12.08 102.72 0.76 216 4.68 113.71 0.73 240 0.98 128.20 0.69 264 3.08 136.26 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 67 12 UTC = 61 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.4 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.22 0.19 1.10 1.08 0.89 0.88 48 -0.18 0.22 1.28 1.22 0.92 0.92 72 -0.08 0.28 1.48 1.42 0.92 0.92 96 0.40 1.64 0.91 120 0.53 1.98 0.89 144 0.62 2.41 0.86 168 0.69 2.92 0.82 192 0.72 3.36 0.76 216 0.70 3.78 0.69 240 0.60 3.98 0.64 264 0.48 4.14 0.63 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.5 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.21 0.17 0.76 0.73 0.91 0.91 48 0.32 0.26 1.00 0.90 0.93 0.94 72 0.39 0.34 1.22 1.14 0.93 0.93 96 0.45 1.46 0.90 120 0.52 1.78 0.88 144 0.56 2.21 0.82 168 0.62 2.60 0.74 192 0.52 2.80 0.70 216 0.57 3.01 0.68 240 0.55 3.31 0.64 264 0.47 3.55 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 71 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.6 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.17 0.20 1.03 1.00 0.90 0.91 48 0.12 0.11 1.33 1.21 0.88 0.90 72 0.03 0.07 1.64 1.51 0.84 0.87 96 0.03 1.87 0.80 120 -0.05 2.08 0.77 144 -0.17 2.55 0.67 168 -0.09 2.75 0.61 192 -0.19 2.96 0.60 216 -0.16 3.08 0.60 240 0.04 3.28 0.54 264 0.09 3.35 0.51 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 65 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.7 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.75 -0.48 3.51 3.44 48 -0.73 -0.45 3.96 3.82 72 -0.69 -0.37 4.47 4.26 96 -0.46 4.79 120 -0.71 5.59 144 -0.67 6.34 168 -0.66 6.82 192 -0.60 7.10 216 0.05 8.13 240 0.33 8.25 264 0.36 8.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.8 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.49 -0.40 3.64 3.58 48 -0.53 -0.58 4.64 4.27 72 -0.68 -0.62 5.55 5.34 96 -0.73 6.43 120 -0.88 7.89 144 -0.96 9.19 168 -0.92 10.49 192 -0.49 11.84 216 0.17 13.46 240 0.84 13.88 264 0.69 14.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 70 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 5.9 EUROPE/NORTH AFRICA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.74 5.35 5.19 48 -0.56 -0.76 7.38 6.60 72 -0.84 -0.69 9.11 8.63 96 -0.86 10.78 120 -0.97 14.24 144 -1.27 16.81 168 -1.17 18.85 192 -0.87 21.64 216 -0.40 23.09 240 0.57 24.38 264 0.96 26.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 69 12 UTC = 64 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.1 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.01 -4.00 10.03 10.10 0.95 0.94 48 -4.18 -5.71 13.23 13.49 0.95 0.93 72 -4.92 -5.86 17.47 16.81 0.92 0.91 96 -6.79 21.13 0.86 120 -8.00 25.92 0.80 144 -8.30 31.33 0.74 168 -7.15 34.34 0.71 192 -5.49 36.53 0.68 216 -7.68 38.81 0.65 240 -10.36 42.97 0.63 264 -12.57 44.25 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 122 12 UTC = 121 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.2 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -2.82 -2.30 11.98 11.76 0.94 0.94 48 -1.17 -0.85 15.04 15.31 0.95 0.95 72 0.35 1.31 19.84 20.21 0.93 0.93 96 2.00 26.09 0.89 120 1.87 32.42 0.85 144 1.83 38.85 0.80 168 3.92 43.45 0.79 192 7.08 50.26 0.75 216 6.28 54.81 0.72 240 4.26 59.77 0.68 264 2.04 61.85 0.68 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 133 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.3 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.65 -3.13 20.50 18.44 0.94 0.94 48 -1.83 0.79 25.19 24.74 0.95 0.95 72 2.04 5.40 32.77 34.39 0.94 0.93 96 7.96 44.73 0.89 120 9.40 53.89 0.85 144 9.05 63.19 0.83 168 10.92 72.17 0.81 192 14.84 84.48 0.77 216 15.94 93.07 0.75 240 16.07 100.62 0.72 264 14.45 105.22 0.70 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 134 12 UTC = 131 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.4 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.37 -0.45 1.81 1.84 0.83 0.83 48 -0.24 -0.27 1.96 2.03 0.86 0.86 72 -0.08 -0.12 2.17 2.20 0.84 0.85 96 0.06 2.47 0.82 120 0.18 2.80 0.78 144 0.28 3.15 0.75 168 0.45 3.55 0.70 192 0.60 4.03 0.65 216 0.76 4.28 0.63 240 0.81 4.50 0.60 264 0.80 4.63 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 141 12 UTC = 140 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.5 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.12 0.21 0.98 0.97 0.86 0.84 48 0.26 0.36 1.18 1.16 0.89 0.87 72 0.36 0.46 1.41 1.41 0.86 0.85 96 0.51 1.67 0.82 120 0.54 1.91 0.79 144 0.53 2.16 0.76 168 0.58 2.44 0.74 192 0.62 2.68 0.72 216 0.65 2.91 0.69 240 0.70 3.04 0.67 264 0.65 3.14 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 160 12 UTC = 158 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.6 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.14 -0.08 1.22 1.22 0.86 0.84 48 -0.06 0.00 1.51 1.52 0.85 0.83 72 0.06 0.12 1.80 1.81 0.83 0.82 96 0.26 2.05 0.81 120 0.36 2.32 0.78 144 0.33 2.49 0.77 168 0.31 2.73 0.74 192 0.27 2.96 0.72 216 0.37 3.10 0.71 240 0.54 3.23 0.70 264 0.60 3.40 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 159 12 UTC = 156 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.7 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.00 -0.70 3.98 3.83 48 -1.02 -0.63 4.50 4.35 72 -0.99 -0.61 5.18 5.02 96 -0.62 5.71 120 -0.57 6.41 144 -0.55 7.03 168 -0.58 7.31 192 -0.56 7.60 216 -0.47 7.84 240 -0.53 8.18 264 -0.58 8.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 136 12 UTC = 134 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.8 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.85 -0.76 4.03 4.18 48 -1.01 -0.96 4.89 5.02 72 -1.05 -0.95 5.93 6.06 96 -0.98 7.02 120 -0.98 8.15 144 -1.00 8.95 168 -0.96 9.63 192 -0.95 10.17 216 -1.02 10.92 240 -1.00 11.54 264 -0.98 11.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 156 12 UTC = 154 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 6.9 ASIA VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.71 -0.64 6.22 6.38 48 -1.09 -0.93 8.26 8.48 72 -1.32 -1.16 10.14 10.40 96 -1.15 12.22 120 -1.07 14.16 144 -1.10 15.52 168 -0.98 17.15 192 -1.35 18.30 216 -1.26 19.83 240 -1.23 20.49 264 -1.08 20.92 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 155 12 UTC = 153 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.1 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.33 -2.61 7.13 8.40 0.98 0.97 48 1.05 -0.84 11.02 13.38 0.97 0.97 72 2.89 3.06 15.41 17.77 0.96 0.96 96 4.24 21.60 0.93 120 5.16 31.40 0.91 144 7.43 44.13 0.82 168 10.07 58.61 0.74 192 13.74 65.94 0.68 216 19.26 63.83 0.62 240 20.21 67.67 0.61 264 18.50 77.11 0.49 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.2 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -5.00 -7.87 11.02 12.85 0.98 0.97 48 -4.61 -7.52 15.23 18.49 0.97 0.96 72 -3.19 -2.88 21.52 25.22 0.96 0.96 96 -4.55 32.72 0.90 120 -1.75 49.61 0.85 144 2.16 61.98 0.82 168 7.45 74.93 0.74 192 8.09 87.78 0.66 216 16.69 95.61 0.58 240 15.18 97.80 0.54 264 10.08 101.02 0.58 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.3 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.93 -8.14 15.02 17.30 0.98 0.98 48 -5.17 -9.41 22.51 25.76 0.98 0.97 72 -4.53 -5.57 31.47 36.54 0.96 0.94 96 -9.06 49.71 0.91 120 -6.93 69.70 0.82 144 -2.52 81.06 0.79 168 2.35 95.91 0.73 192 6.26 111.24 0.71 216 22.03 134.52 0.62 240 18.85 146.28 0.57 264 6.82 140.85 0.59 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 8 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.4 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.47 -0.59 1.20 1.22 0.80 0.81 48 -0.50 -0.70 1.35 1.46 0.87 0.84 72 -0.47 -0.67 1.56 1.66 0.84 0.86 96 -0.63 1.91 0.82 120 -0.51 2.33 0.78 144 -0.66 2.30 0.82 168 -0.46 2.78 0.69 192 -0.49 2.78 0.71 216 -0.39 3.31 0.57 240 -0.59 3.49 0.51 264 -0.68 3.51 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.5 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.06 0.09 1.04 1.01 0.90 0.89 48 0.05 0.06 1.26 1.29 0.91 0.90 72 0.04 0.09 1.53 1.51 0.89 0.82 96 -0.10 1.87 0.76 120 -0.01 2.57 0.77 144 -0.02 2.85 0.70 168 0.04 3.04 0.69 192 -0.12 3.08 0.66 216 0.24 3.70 0.59 240 0.25 4.09 0.52 264 -0.09 3.67 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.6 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 -0.01 1.10 1.23 0.90 0.88 48 -0.16 -0.03 1.44 1.47 0.88 0.87 72 -0.29 -0.14 1.78 1.80 0.86 0.87 96 -0.09 2.12 0.84 120 -0.19 2.74 0.77 144 -0.19 3.07 0.76 168 -0.18 3.46 0.71 192 0.35 3.71 0.68 216 0.38 4.03 0.64 240 0.35 4.04 0.65 264 0.01 4.15 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 9 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.7 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.59 -0.53 3.78 3.87 48 -0.69 -0.50 4.49 4.62 72 -0.71 -0.57 5.42 5.44 96 -0.37 6.36 120 -0.44 7.68 144 -0.41 8.38 168 -0.17 9.22 192 0.31 10.49 216 -0.10 10.85 240 -0.46 11.34 264 -0.45 11.80 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.8 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.65 -0.35 4.63 4.75 48 -0.60 -0.41 5.76 5.91 72 -0.76 -0.50 7.08 7.25 96 -0.74 8.75 120 -0.74 10.33 144 -1.17 11.91 168 -1.53 12.87 192 0.47 15.29 216 -0.13 15.94 240 -0.65 16.46 264 -0.60 17.29 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 26 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 7.9 AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.82 -0.89 5.85 5.56 48 -1.03 -0.98 7.37 7.56 72 -1.36 -1.05 8.98 9.37 96 -1.46 11.18 120 -1.44 13.13 144 -2.46 15.59 168 -3.40 18.60 192 -1.48 22.35 216 -1.37 23.31 240 -2.37 24.21 264 -2.90 24.81 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 27 12 UTC = 10 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.1 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.38 -4.54 8.35 8.76 0.71 0.68 48 -4.72 -4.88 9.12 9.41 0.79 0.78 72 -4.90 -5.95 9.88 10.51 0.79 0.77 96 -6.54 11.18 0.75 120 -6.89 11.65 0.76 144 -7.37 12.27 0.76 168 -7.72 13.02 0.73 192 -6.83 13.00 0.74 216 -7.26 13.64 0.75 240 -7.77 14.30 0.75 264 -7.86 14.80 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 56 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.2 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.12 -6.54 11.24 11.41 0.62 0.60 48 -6.37 -6.75 11.81 12.09 0.73 0.72 72 -6.69 -7.79 12.44 13.12 0.74 0.72 96 -8.60 13.81 0.72 120 -9.35 14.59 0.71 144 -10.00 15.42 0.69 168 -10.17 15.77 0.66 192 -9.49 16.08 0.61 216 -9.84 16.88 0.61 240 -10.13 17.29 0.62 264 -10.51 17.58 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 57 12 UTC = 77 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.3 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.65 -8.34 14.04 14.31 0.72 0.71 48 -8.38 -9.95 15.85 16.14 0.79 0.82 72 -9.71 -11.75 17.27 18.19 0.80 0.83 96 -12.96 19.64 0.82 120 -13.98 21.23 0.81 144 -14.94 22.80 0.78 168 -15.34 23.70 0.76 192 -14.71 24.33 0.71 216 -14.86 25.64 0.70 240 -15.15 26.31 0.70 264 -15.18 26.68 0.69 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 57 12 UTC = 76 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.4 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.44 -0.52 1.04 1.12 0.43 0.46 48 -0.48 -0.55 1.08 1.16 0.50 0.55 72 -0.49 -0.55 1.08 1.18 0.52 0.59 96 -0.55 1.21 0.57 120 -0.55 1.23 0.59 144 -0.56 1.26 0.62 168 -0.56 1.30 0.61 192 -0.60 1.34 0.60 216 -0.62 1.38 0.60 240 -0.62 1.43 0.56 264 -0.62 1.43 0.55 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 65 12 UTC = 86 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.5 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.24 0.25 0.79 0.82 0.53 0.53 48 0.25 0.28 0.84 0.86 0.61 0.62 72 0.26 0.28 0.88 0.91 0.65 0.63 96 0.26 0.95 0.63 120 0.23 0.98 0.61 144 0.21 1.03 0.59 168 0.22 1.07 0.58 192 0.22 1.13 0.55 216 0.26 1.17 0.53 240 0.26 1.21 0.48 264 0.24 1.21 0.48 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 89 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.6 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.27 -0.35 0.63 0.69 0.63 0.65 48 -0.41 -0.51 0.74 0.82 0.65 0.69 72 -0.47 -0.57 0.83 0.90 0.64 0.69 96 -0.59 0.95 0.68 120 -0.61 1.00 0.68 144 -0.63 1.04 0.69 168 -0.65 1.08 0.68 192 -0.67 1.12 0.67 216 -0.66 1.13 0.68 240 -0.64 1.15 0.67 264 -0.62 1.15 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 66 12 UTC = 88 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.7 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.48 -0.50 3.26 3.31 48 -0.57 -0.50 3.58 3.60 72 -0.56 -0.45 3.87 3.83 96 -0.41 4.07 120 -0.42 4.30 144 -0.52 4.41 168 -0.55 4.55 192 -0.56 4.64 216 -0.56 4.76 240 -0.59 4.91 264 -0.52 4.97 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 79 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.8 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -1.19 -0.89 3.63 3.66 48 -1.30 -1.07 3.97 3.98 72 -1.43 -1.15 4.34 4.21 96 -1.21 4.50 120 -1.25 4.80 144 -1.38 5.09 168 -1.49 5.38 192 -1.45 5.71 216 -1.53 5.92 240 -1.64 6.13 264 -1.62 6.47 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 58 12 UTC = 81 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 8.9 TROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.55 -0.70 4.67 4.58 48 -0.80 -0.84 5.37 5.48 72 -1.00 -0.88 5.99 6.28 96 -0.83 6.97 120 -0.74 7.64 144 -0.69 8.29 168 -0.77 8.81 192 -0.93 9.25 216 -1.09 9.74 240 -1.10 10.15 264 -1.22 10.33 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 57 12 UTC = 80 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.1 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.45 -4.39 9.66 9.81 0.97 0.97 48 -5.65 -6.07 12.81 13.18 0.97 0.97 72 -5.88 -6.27 17.16 17.01 0.96 0.96 96 -5.54 21.73 0.93 120 -4.87 28.02 0.89 144 -3.93 34.70 0.85 168 -3.45 39.79 0.81 192 -3.31 42.96 0.79 216 -4.34 47.79 0.75 240 -5.25 52.14 0.72 264 -5.65 53.81 0.71 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 402 12 UTC = 396 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.2 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -3.72 -3.43 11.69 11.33 0.97 0.97 48 -2.96 -3.08 15.58 15.20 0.98 0.97 72 -1.59 -1.57 21.42 21.45 0.97 0.96 96 0.46 29.24 0.94 120 2.14 38.58 0.91 144 3.65 48.14 0.88 168 4.65 56.70 0.84 192 5.50 63.26 0.82 216 5.55 69.44 0.79 240 5.62 76.31 0.76 264 5.57 80.46 0.74 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 417 12 UTC = 410 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.3 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -4.48 -3.83 17.57 16.81 0.97 0.97 48 -2.89 -2.62 23.41 22.79 0.97 0.98 72 -0.75 -0.38 31.98 32.68 0.97 0.96 96 2.67 44.50 0.94 120 5.06 57.66 0.92 144 6.61 72.07 0.88 168 7.54 86.87 0.84 192 8.98 98.02 0.81 216 10.49 105.39 0.79 240 12.05 115.74 0.76 264 12.64 124.20 0.73 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 417 12 UTC = 411 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.4 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.35 -0.36 1.51 1.58 0.88 0.88 48 -0.26 -0.27 1.70 1.75 0.91 0.91 72 -0.15 -0.16 1.94 1.97 0.90 0.90 96 -0.03 2.29 0.88 120 0.11 2.70 0.84 144 0.21 3.12 0.80 168 0.32 3.57 0.76 192 0.44 3.99 0.71 216 0.56 4.28 0.69 240 0.64 4.50 0.67 264 0.66 4.66 0.65 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 427 12 UTC = 420 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.5 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.18 0.19 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.90 48 0.29 0.30 1.12 1.10 0.92 0.92 72 0.36 0.37 1.37 1.37 0.91 0.91 96 0.43 1.67 0.88 120 0.45 2.00 0.85 144 0.47 2.33 0.81 168 0.48 2.69 0.76 192 0.49 2.94 0.74 216 0.54 3.10 0.72 240 0.61 3.28 0.69 264 0.62 3.46 0.67 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 456 12 UTC = 450 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.6 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.02 1.13 1.12 0.90 0.90 48 -0.04 -0.03 1.42 1.41 0.90 0.90 72 -0.02 -0.01 1.76 1.74 0.87 0.87 96 0.03 2.11 0.82 120 0.04 2.48 0.77 144 0.03 2.75 0.74 168 0.04 3.03 0.70 192 0.02 3.20 0.68 216 0.08 3.32 0.68 240 0.20 3.47 0.66 264 0.24 3.58 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 452 12 UTC = 446 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.7 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.81 -0.70 3.70 3.70 48 -0.82 -0.66 4.20 4.19 72 -0.80 -0.63 4.85 4.82 96 -0.67 5.54 120 -0.71 6.43 144 -0.71 7.22 168 -0.75 7.70 192 -0.78 8.02 216 -0.63 8.47 240 -0.54 8.81 264 -0.57 9.00 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 411 12 UTC = 403 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.8 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.62 3.87 3.91 48 -0.82 -0.75 4.83 4.77 72 -0.85 -0.76 5.93 5.93 96 -0.83 7.17 120 -0.85 8.56 144 -0.89 9.84 168 -0.91 10.76 192 -0.85 11.53 216 -0.80 12.27 240 -0.69 13.02 264 -0.69 13.50 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 445 12 UTC = 439 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 9.9 NORTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.63 -0.64 5.61 5.60 48 -0.79 -0.79 7.46 7.37 72 -0.92 -0.85 9.43 9.42 96 -0.87 11.58 120 -0.85 13.95 144 -0.97 16.08 168 -0.90 17.97 192 -1.01 19.52 216 -0.83 20.68 240 -0.81 21.64 264 -0.59 22.78 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 441 12 UTC = 436 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.1 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -1.83 10.22 10.32 0.98 0.98 48 0.32 -1.19 13.90 14.22 0.98 0.97 72 2.13 -0.73 19.01 19.09 0.96 0.95 96 -1.91 24.16 0.94 120 -3.33 33.03 0.91 144 -4.54 39.68 0.87 168 -4.39 48.44 0.79 192 -4.37 55.38 0.73 216 -5.19 60.40 0.72 240 -2.76 65.86 0.65 264 -1.49 71.27 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 32 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.2 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.28 -7.62 13.46 13.95 0.98 0.98 48 -6.02 -7.58 18.21 19.39 0.98 0.97 72 -4.55 -7.25 26.05 26.77 0.96 0.95 96 -9.11 36.91 0.92 120 -10.39 50.68 0.86 144 -12.20 59.87 0.84 168 -11.98 71.42 0.76 192 -14.41 80.80 0.74 216 -14.04 89.40 0.67 240 -11.95 96.49 0.62 264 -8.63 99.80 0.62 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 35 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.3 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (m) (m) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -6.77 -9.53 18.19 19.40 0.98 0.97 48 -7.66 -9.63 26.52 28.05 0.98 0.97 72 -6.25 -8.57 37.56 38.94 0.96 0.95 96 -10.63 53.37 0.92 120 -11.48 70.90 0.87 144 -12.19 82.60 0.84 168 -16.36 98.80 0.79 192 -16.51 112.22 0.76 216 -14.53 126.46 0.68 240 -12.73 139.54 0.61 264 -11.17 142.88 0.64 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 33 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.4 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.88 -0.86 1.80 1.77 0.86 0.88 48 -0.94 -0.90 1.96 1.96 0.89 0.90 72 -0.97 -0.92 2.23 2.13 0.88 0.89 96 -0.94 2.52 0.87 120 -0.92 2.89 0.81 144 -1.00 3.25 0.75 168 -0.92 3.69 0.69 192 -1.05 3.90 0.68 216 -1.12 4.37 0.59 240 -1.16 4.49 0.56 264 -0.96 4.47 0.60 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 34 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.5 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.03 -0.12 1.02 0.96 0.93 0.93 48 -0.05 -0.11 1.28 1.18 0.94 0.94 72 -0.04 -0.07 1.62 1.44 0.92 0.91 96 -0.13 1.88 0.89 120 -0.12 2.45 0.83 144 -0.15 2.89 0.78 168 -0.22 3.25 0.72 192 -0.24 3.47 0.72 216 -0.08 3.91 0.64 240 -0.04 4.22 0.55 264 -0.13 4.21 0.57 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 35 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.6 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA TEMPERATURE JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN ERROR RMSE trend corr. PERIOD (K) (K) -------------- -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 0.01 0.10 1.17 1.09 0.91 0.91 48 -0.08 0.06 1.48 1.32 0.91 0.91 72 -0.14 0.03 1.81 1.64 0.89 0.88 96 0.11 2.01 0.83 120 0.14 2.42 0.80 144 0.25 2.78 0.75 168 0.12 2.95 0.73 192 0.37 3.24 0.72 216 0.37 3.34 0.70 240 0.23 3.50 0.66 264 0.10 3.74 0.61 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 35 12 UTC = 37 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.7 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 850 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.74 -0.51 4.45 4.30 48 -0.79 -0.48 5.06 4.86 72 -0.80 -0.53 5.89 5.48 96 -0.43 6.31 120 -0.50 7.32 144 -0.41 8.09 168 -0.39 8.95 192 -0.12 9.42 216 -0.20 9.83 240 -0.04 10.35 264 -0.40 10.82 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 35 12 UTC = 36 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.8 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 500 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.41 -0.38 4.70 4.44 48 -0.35 -0.38 5.97 5.60 72 -0.44 -0.39 7.54 6.98 96 -0.17 8.61 120 0.03 10.30 144 -0.05 11.93 168 -0.36 12.92 192 0.14 14.05 216 0.38 14.93 240 0.60 15.69 264 0.24 16.41 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 36 12 UTC = 38 --------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 10.9 SOUTHERN EXTRATROPICS VERIFICATION AGAINST RADIOSONDES ------------------------------------------------------ 250 HPA WIND JUNE 2016 ------------------------------------------------ FORECAST MEAN SPEED ERROR RMSEV PERIOD (m/s) (m/s) -------- 00 UTC 12 UTC 00 UTC 12 UTC (HOURS) ------ ------ ------ ------ 24 -0.72 -0.32 6.07 5.65 48 -0.82 -0.27 7.79 7.57 72 -0.96 0.02 10.17 10.04 96 0.26 12.35 120 0.53 14.83 144 0.74 17.39 168 -0.33 19.16 192 0.20 21.34 216 0.41 22.55 240 0.22 24.31 264 0.40 25.43 --------------------------------------------------------- NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS USED 00 UTC = 36 12 UTC = 38 ---------------------------------------------------------